Monday 7/6/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14100 Class Rating: 42

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 IT'S ALL REALITY 9/5


# 5 FIRST TIME LOVE 3/1


# 1 MISTER MONTCALM 12/1


I think IT'S ALL REALITY is a quite good choice. Looks solid to be close to the lead at the first call. Had one of the most competitive Equibase speed figs of this group of horses in this race in his last race. His earnings per start in turf sprint contests alone makes you take a look at him. FIRST TIME LOVE - He has quite good class ratings, averaging 68, and has to be given a chance in this race. Whitacre has a win percentage of 15 over the last 30 days. MISTER MONTCALM - Last time out, this gelding ran against a much tougher field. When a handler brings any racer back this quickly it is a positive signal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,100 Class Rating: 47

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 NEVER CEASING (ML=9/2)
#7 JERRY THE BULL (ML=4/1)
#2 WILDCAT DANCE (ML=7/2)


NEVER CEASING - This entrant could be tough today, especially since Villasana rode last time around the track and now should be more familiar with this one. That last drill tells me this gelding is set for a top effort. The last speed rating of 48 is the highest last race speed rating in the field. JERRY THE BULL - Jock hops back atop after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding last time out. That's always a green light. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. The jockey and conditioner combination have a profitable return on investment when they work together. WILDCAT DANCE - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. This filly has the top turf rating in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here entrant has a good chance. Lower weight assigned of -5. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this filly falls into this category.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 A FREDDIE ZAPPER (ML=5/2), #4 HE'S A DELIGHT (ML=5/1), #6 CHRIS' CHEROKEEBOP (ML=8/1),

A FREDDIE ZAPPER - I don't have a positive vibe about this runner in this race. HE'S A DELIGHT - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two races. Finished fifth in his most recent race with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. CHRIS' CHEROKEEBOP - Can't play this questionable contender in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event lately.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - WILDCAT DANCE - Trainer (Angelle) dropped this horse in the last race, and keeps her at the same level today. Based on my analysis of the data, this level suits her well.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 NEVER CEASING on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,500 Class Rating: 55

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 STRIKING LASS (ML=3/1)
#5 LAID BACK LADY (ML=7/2)


STRIKING LASS - I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a strong effort within the last month or so. Was in a Maiden Special race at Thistledown last time around the track. That clash had a class rating of 69 and she is moving down in this event. A certain win candidate. That 62 fig this filly earned in her last race tells me she's a big time player this time out. The improved speed ratings over the last three races is strong. Bourke drops her in this race conditioned to win. LAID BACK LADY - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This filly's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. Ran last out against better company at Thistledown. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 OPERATION DYNAMO (ML=4/1), #6 PRETENTIOUS BELLE (ML=9/2), #1 SEFAPIANO REWARD (ML=6/1),

OPERATION DYNAMO - Doesn't look to be in a strong situation today. PRETENTIOUS BELLE - This pony ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's event running that figure. SEFAPIANO REWARD - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing ability on September 19th. This filly hasn't had any positive results in short distance affairs in the last 60 days. When looking at today's class rating, she will have to record a much better speed rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #7 STRIKING LASS on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 7/6 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,5/1,2,3,7/1/1,2,8 = $24


LATE PICK 4: 1,2,8/1,2,4,/3,5,7/2,4 = $54

MEET STATS: 154 - 484 / $880.70 BEST BETS: 20 - 43 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 41 / $53.20

Best Bet: KAYS SHADOW (6th)

Spot Play: WILD BILL M (7th)


Race 1

(1) DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR raced very well two back in this class from an outer post when starting fast and finishing quickly to just miss. Dropping back down from the Preferred and drawing inside is enough to make him our top pick in the opener. (3) WHISKEY TAX went a big trip up front last week but couldn't sustain his bid. Moving inside gives him a chance at a better trip and higher placing. (4) WHITE BECOMES HER easily took care of weaker leading throughout but is likely to get challenged harder and earlier in this class.

Race 2

(1) BEACH HERO parlayed a heady McNair steer and a good trip into a lifetime-best score last week. It's very possible he could sit the exact same trip behind (6) TWOMICKEYTRIP, who should be heading straight for the point off the claim. We'll give the nod to the former here. (7) CRAFTY MASTER couldn't close into an accelerating pace but has retained his sharpness and will get there one of these times.

Race 3

(1) THISORTHAT HANOVER made short work of her foes in her pari-mutuel debut and showed a very quick turn of foot in the lane when she quickly sprinted away from them. She will likely face a bigger challenge here going for $70K but is likely up to it. (5) THATSOVERYNICE is a half-sister to three winners from three that have raced from her dam. The late speed she has shown in her qualifiers signal readiness. (2) CONNIE MACH was impressive winning both qualifiers but will need to knock at least three seconds off her overall time to compete for the top prize here.

Race 4

A full-brother to Rock N Roll Heaven wouldn't find too many easier spots to make his debut so we'll give (4) HARD ROCK top call here on pedigree alone. (5) SHOE SHINE raced evenly in his WEG debut now gets a massive driver change to Henry who is likely to try to send this Shadow Play colt right down the road; don't underestimate. (6) ARAZI showed good early speed but had trouble keeping pace late in a quick dash. He can share here.

Race 5

(3) EXEMPLAR is an in-and-outer and perhaps a recent good effort in the top class at Georgian signals an even better mile is coming tonight. (2) ROSE RUN ORIANA AND (1) BAGS FOR ALL have similar profiles in that they both won easily in this class three back. Both are dangerous here in this contentious tilt with class and post relief to aid their cause.

Race 6

(1) KAYS SHADOW was impressive in her debut, fending off a stern third-quarter challenge then sprinting away down the lane. She will be tough here starting from the inside. (3) SOUTHWIND SHANIA lost all chance when she broke before the start in her debut but figures highly here if she behaves. (5) STONEBRIDGE PEARL was very impressive over a wet track in her qualifier last Saturday and can take home a big share here.

Race 7

(1) WILD BILL M paced a 26 3/5 second 1/4 last time to take control of a late closer final over a half-mile oval. He has shown there and in other miles that he has some talent and this isn't too tough a spot to make his WEG debut; top call. (2) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE is another shipper with good form and also has a big shot to score here. (7) MYSTICAL JET didn't get over the wet track very well last Saturday but any of his previous three miles make him a threat here. Keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(4) WINDSUN REVENGE tried it first up vs. a very tough leader last week which isn't his best trip. He stands a better chance to hook onto some cover here and should be a better price tonight. (1) COCO LINDY finished just ahead of the choice in the same dash and is one of the main contenders here, especially considering he comes back quicker. (2) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS moves back inside and gets Filion back. Both of those factors make him a threat.

Race 9

(5) MAJESTIC TEMPO raced very tough in his debut making two moves and falling just short. He gets a slight nod here in a leg you should go deep in the late pick 4. (7) BETTY HILL made a brush to the front on the backside and then finished fast to hold the choice at bay. She's the one to beat again. (3) TWENTY THREE RED broke early and made a big recovery to pass horses as the pace accelerated. She has a big shot here if flat.

Race 10

(4) TOPCORNERTERROR faces one of his easiest assignments in a few starts and should get an aggressive steer here; top call in the finale. (2) BUGGER BRUISER also faces easier and should get sent hard for position by A Mac. (3) SANTANNA BLUE CHIP won in a similar class in May before facing tougher and should be respected here. (9) TOMITTA BAYAMA won two straight in good time out of town and can share here at a good price. (1) HOUSE OF TERROR has gait issues but also has high speed when he minds his manners. He is another in with a shot here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 7/6 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 192 - 596 / $1059.10 BEST BETS: 25 - 47 / $87.90


Best Bet: CRESCENT CITY (9th)

Spot Play: SIGN TO INVERELL A (7th)


Race 1

(4) LUCKY TERROR gets a touch of post relief in his third start off the Abbatiello claim and I get the feeling he's capable of showing more. (3) BETTOR DESIGN raced evenly last week and he's got plenty of back class. (5) GIDDY UP DELIGHT drops in class and gets away from the eight hole.

Race 2

(3) REPORT FOR DUTY N is somehow winless on the year but he's been racing well and gets needed post relief tonight; capable of scoring for his new barn. (1) RAGE N RYAN has been sharp in his two starts for Garcia-Herrera and from the rail it's impossible not to include him. (5) CAVIART KEY is not a likely win candidate but from this spot he looks best of the rest.

Race 3

(1) TWIN B SPEEDO hasn't done a heck of a lot this year but he drops to a new low and draws best; gelding gets a weak call from this spot. (4) MACH TO THE MAX went evenly upon arrival and he's guaranteed to show more tonight. (5) FASTLANELUKE has had no luck recently with the post draws; this is the best spot he's seen in some time.

Race 4

(1) SKYFUL OF LIGHTERS was overtaken by a tough rival last week but held well late. He can advance off that effort. (5) NATIONAL DEBT has been a train wreck since his big east coast splash last year. I'm not saying he's a bad horse but he hasn't come close to expectations and he's still winless on the year. I'll let him beat me at a short price. (4) EMPEROR MONTANA N has looked good since arriving from Australia.

Race 5

(6) MY TEMUDJIN N has never been one of my favorites but he had very sneaky pace last week from the eight hole and he could get up late with a live trip. (5) WHOGOESFIRST has fallen on hard times but the ability is there; maybe Bartlett can wake him up. (2) SIMPLY BUSINESS moves inside and can threaten on best.

Race 6

(4) SHADY CITY has been hit-or-miss for Team Stalbaum but we've seen what he can do if he's right. (5) DELCO ROCKNROLL hasn't done much recently but maybe that aggressive try last out was a wake-up call. (1) LIVE ON drops back to a more reasonable level and draws best.

Race 7

(3) SIGN TO INVERELL A never got involved last out after a couple of decent efforts upon arriving from Australia. Expect Bartlett to get aggressive from this spot. (2) AMERICAN FLIGHT had some belated pace last week, which was an improved effort. The post relief makes him a major player tonight. (5) BRETT MCFAVRELOUS comes off a sick scratch but he was super in his previous two efforts for the DiDomenico barn.

Race 8

(5) QUICK AINT FAIR arrives from The Meadowlands, where she's been racing well versus arguably better and she picks up Sears tonight. Perhaps she's too obvious? There certainly won't be much value betting her but I suspect she'll win. (4) GAME THEORY finished very well last week after the fact and she can build off that effort. (3) TAMMY ANN is usually close-up but doesn't win that often.

Race 9

(2) CRESCENT CITY is another Chris Ryder shipper on the card who looks to have found a perfect spot; she will look to score at odds-on. (5) LYONS SHADOW was a winner last out at 1/9 odds and the mare looks to be a clear second best to the top one. (6) HEAVEN ON EARTH may be best of the weak rest.

Race 10

(4) MIDNIGHT DYLAN N raced better last week and now the Vallee trainee gets some class relief as well as picking up Bartlett; lots to like. (1) SAMANDAR hasn't done much recently but he lands the best post and he has plenty of back class. (7) FOUR BOYS finds another tough spot but he's capable of kicking home for a share.

Race 11

(5) OHOKA TEXAS N didn't race that badly in his local return when he held well off an uncovered trip. Worth a look in a questionable field. (1) TYLER hasn't won in some time but at least he draws best. (3) KIWI IDEAL N hasn't really fired with anything recently; perhaps that controversial dq a few months ago jinxed him.

Race 12

(5) STERLING COOPER gave way on the front end last week after setting the pace under pressure; Sabot trainee has good speed and is worth another try. (2) OPEN WATER has shown improvement since joining the Banca barn but he does double-jump in class tonight. (1) DELLA CRUISE draws best again but he did hang from the pocket last out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Delaware Park (3rd) Sweet Visionary, 3-1
(4th) Reason, 9-2


Finger Lakes (1st) Strueves Star, 6-1
(5th) Assured Victory, 3-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Mountain Swain, 6-1
(3rd) Hes a Delight, 5-1


Parx Racing (1st) Wonder Will, 4-1
(8th) Forge Ahead Franki, 7-2

Presque Isle Downs (6th) A Tough of Humor, 3-1
(7th) Boardwalk Baron, 7-2


Thistledown (3rd) Angel in My Eyes, 9-2
(4th) Henry Ella, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

On the diamond

The meeting at Progressive Field Monday night between Cleveland and Houston looks to be a pitcher's duel. The duel in question will be between the Indians' righthander Carlos Carrasco and Astros' southpaw Dallas Keuchel. Carrasco is off back-2-back gems tossing 16 2/3 innings of 3 run-ball with 20 K's, 3 walks while Keuchel heads to the hill following consecutive gems spinning 17 innings of no run-ball striking out 19 with 1 walk. This being the first game of a home series should get the attention of sports handicappers keeping close tabs on Cleveland. In the twelve openers played at Progressive Field the Indians are 1-11. The betting odds opened with Cleveland as a -$1.25 favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners 10:10 EST

The Detroit Tigers head into Monday's meeting against Seattle with an Over/Under record of 45-34 on the season. Since June 17 the Tigers have posted an incredible 16 consecutive 'Over'. Oddsmakers have opened Monday night's total at 7 runs.

Note: Tigers' Alfredo Simon 5-0 'Over' L5, 6-3-1 'Over' L10. Mariners' Hisashi Iwakuma 3-0 'Over' L3, 9-0-1 'Over' L10 starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's six-pack

-- Daytona is a 2.5-mile track; any idea how much it costs to pave it?

-- Robin Lopez signs with the Knicks for four years, $54M.

-- Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul hurt his hand in a fireworks-related accident over the weekend and could have nerve damage in one finger. We hope he recovers soon.

-- Giants were going to pay him $14.8M this coming season, but he hadn't signed the deal yet, so if he can't play, the Giants could still pull the deal.

-- Speaking of the Giants, they've lost seven of last eight home games with Philly, as we begin to look at NFL stuff for the coming season.

-- Overtime in the CFL; Toronto beats Saskatchewan 42-40 in Regina.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

ORIOLES (Chen) @ TWINS (Hughes) 8:10 PM

Take: TWINS -102

The Orioles salvaged the finale of their weekend set in Chicago by blowing up the White Sox bullpen on Sunday. They also played some solid defense early in the game to preserve a narrow lead. Good win for the Orioles to be sure, but I can see them having a more difficult time this evening.

The Twins have been at their best from a production standpoint when facing lefties at home. They’ll have a chance to cool off Wei-Yin Chen this evening. Chen is definitely no cinch. He’s not a guy who will ever post those blow away numbers that jump off the page. But he’s a steady southpaw who generally gives his team a decent chance to get a win.

Phil Hughes is actually the more volatile pitcher here. Hughes has gotten closer to his 2014 form recently, although he remains vulnerable to the home run. The whole key to backing Hughes is being able to accept going in that he’s probably going to get taken deep at some point. The hope is that it’s a solo job.

From a metrics standpoint, this is a close pitching matchup, with Chen owning a very slim advantage. So I’m keying more on the offensive data that I do think provides a bit of an edge. The Orioles haven’t been a great offensive team on the road against righties. The Twins best situation is vs. lefties at home. Then there’s the simplest numbers of all. Baltimore has been a subpar road team this season. Minnesota is average overall, but that 25-15 home ledger is nothing to sneeze at. I';; run with the team elements tonight and will tab the Twins as the Bonus Play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Bonus Play for Monday, July 5, 2015 10:10 PM ET

(971) DETROIT TIGERS VS (972) SEATTLE MARINERS

Take: (971) DETROIT TIGERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, July 6, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Tigers and Mariners in Seattle. Detroit has a strong offense and a winning record on the road while Seattle has a losing home mark. The Mariners are 5-12 in their last 17 home games, plus 3-10 at home against a right-handed starter. Hisashi Iwakuma (shoulder) will get the nod Monday against the Tigers with a 6.61 ERA while battling injuries. Iwakuma was initially placed on the DL in April due to a strained lat muscle, with an initial recovery timetable of 2-to-4 weeks. However, he suffered a setback in early May and didn't throw off a mound again until the end of that month. He's been good at Triple-A since, but he's 34 years old and this is the big leagues. While Seattle is 29th in baseball in runs scored, Detroit is 9th. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Play Detroit.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins

Bonus Play Baltimore Orioles

I'm recommending a play on the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night. Wei-Yin Chen has been taking care of business in 2015, posting a 2.84 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts. Chen has enjoyed his outings at Target Field since the start of the 2012 season and I expect more of the same tonight. He'll face a Twins' lineup that's in the bottom half of MLB in team OBP against left-handed starters. The Orioles snapped out of a hitting funk on Sunday, scoring nine runs in an easy win over the White Sox. It's the Twins who're now struggling to plate runs, scoring just 12 in their last five games. It's hard to imagine the Twins finding the "sweet elixir" against Chen. Baltimore enters on a 6-0 run when Chen starts against teams with a winning record, while the Twins are just 1-5 in their last six following a road trip of at least seven days. I'm recommending a play on the Orioles on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coach Fletcher’s

Monday MLB Scouting Edge

4:05 pm San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Feels at Home in PNC Park

There’s no place like home unless you are the San Diego Padres. In their case, there is nothing like PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Going back to 2008, the Padres are an astounding 19-4 at PNC. Between 2009 and 2012 the Pads actually won 11 consecutive games there. Starter James Shields gives the Friars a chance to keep their success in line at PNC when he faces A.J. Burnett today. It isn’t going to be so easy for the Padres this time though since Shields has a 5.50 era in 9 road starts this year. The Pirates also feast on NL West teams going 8-2 against them this year, all of them on the road. In a 3 game set at San Diego’s Petco Park early in the year, the Bucs won 2 of 3. Shields went 6 against Pittsburgh in May giving up 2 runs and 6 hits in a no-decision win for the Padres. Burnett went 5 2/3 against SD also in May, allowing 4 earned runs and 8 hits in 5 2/3 frames.

4:10 pm Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians

Keuchel, Astros Find Themselves Road Dogs at Cleveland

Dallas Keuchel goes about his business with quiet assurance. Carlos Carrasco wears his heart on his sleeve. These 2 pitchers each with 10 wins tangle Monday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Keuchel is 10-3 with an outstanding era of 2.03. Last year Dallas went 12-9 with a 2.93 era for an Astro team that lost 92 games. In his last 2 starts all Keuchel did was shut out the first place Yankees over 9 innings giving up 6 hits and striking out 12, then shut out the first place Royals on 7 hits striking out 7. In his only start against Houston this year he fanned 4 and allowed 0 runs and 3 hits. His career record against Cleveland is 2-0 with a 0.78 era and a 0.913 whip. Before you run to the window to bet the Astros note that Carrasco is 2-0 lifetime vs Houston with an era of 0.42 and a whip of 0.516. In his only start this year at Houston, Carrasco shut out the Astros for 6 1/3 innings allowing only 2 hits and fanning 10. In his last start Carrasco carried a perfect game into the 7th before walking a batter. The only hit against him came with 2 outs in the 9th.

5:05 pm St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

Two Teams looking for Offense Face Off at Wrigley

The Cards are an MLB best 53-28 and the Cubs are a quite acceptable 44-36. But both teams are struggling to score and unless the winds turn easy fly balls into bombs, runs may continue to be scarce. Since both teams rely on strong starting pitching, it isn’t really a surprising result. The Cardinal staff allows only 2.9 runs per game and the Cubs allow 3.7. The teams rank 1st and 5th respectively in MLB pitching rankings. The Cards staff allows 2.82 rpg on the road and the Cubbies give up 3.08 rpg at home. In hits allowed per game, the Cubs are 3rd in MLB and the Cards 8th. In opponent runs per game allowed the Cards are once again 1st in MLB and the Cubs 7th. With John Lackey going against Jon Lester, a close game seems a certainty. The Cubs will be looking for revenge after the Cards swept them in late June. Lackey is not as sharp on the road where his era is 5.40. But Lackey has had more success against the Cubs this year allowing 3 runs in 14 2/3 innings while Lester has given up 4 earned runs in 11 1/3 to the Cards. Lester’s personal catcher, David Ross, is on the disabled list which could affect Lester. But the Cubs get Anthony Rizzo back after a day off yesterday.

5:10 pm Atlanta Braves versus Milwaukee Brewers

Stop the Presses – Kyle Lohse is Favored Today

The overnight line has the Brewers and Kyle Lohse as -136 favorites against the Braves. The Brewers Kyle Lohse is not having a very good year. He is 5-9 with a 6.25 era. Lohse’s era at home is even worse at 8.16. He has shown some improvement lately with a mere 5.40 era in his last 3. However, in his last 7 games Kyle has a 6.92 era and a 5.71 era in his last 15. Lohse hasn’t faced the Braves yet this year, but he pitched well against them in 2013 – 2014 hurling 24 innings and giving up just 4 runs. He is 6-2 lifetime versus Atlanta with a 3.86 era. Lohse might have an incentive to give it his all. His name has come up in trade talks largely due to the fact that he’s a veteran hurler with an expiring contract. On the other hand, the Brewers are in last place but have won 8 straight.

7:10 pm Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

Look for Some Offense in This One

With an over – under line sitting at 7, you’d think that a pitcher’s duel is in the offing. That wouldn’t be surprising since Seattle is notoriously a weak hitting team and the Tigers have to go without their MVP Miguel Cabrera. But it appears that there will be ample opportunity to plate some runs in this game with the tigers Alfredo Simon going against the Mariner’s Hisashi Iwakuma. In his last 3 starts Simon’s era is a gigantic 11.04. He’s got a 5.03 era on the road for the season. He’s given up 18 runs in his last 14 2/3 innings. Opponents have tagged him for 29 hits in that time. The Tigers have also scored 21 runs in their last 3 games. The M’s have plated 11. Iwakuma has been a model of consistency this year. He has an era of 6.61 for all his starts, a 6.35 era in his home starts, and a 6.61 era in his last 3 starts where he has given up 12 runs in 16 1/3 innings. In his only start versus Detroit last year, Iwakuma was tagged for 5 runs and 8 hits in 6 innings. Simon hasn’t faced the M’s. Iwakuma is coming off the disabled list for a Grade 1 sprain of his right lat. He went 1-0 with a 1.35 era in 3 rehab starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Blue Jays at White Sox

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (-142, 7)

Chris Sale has a chance to set a major-league record when he takes the mound for the Chicago White Sox on Monday night in the opener of a four-game series against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. Sale has struck out at least 10 batters in eight consecutive starts, tying the all-time mark set by Pedro Martinez with the Boston Red Sox in 1999.

During Sale’s historic tear, he has fanned 97 batters while walking only nine over 60 innings, yet he remains winless over his last four turns. The White Sox, who provided a total of five runs of support during Sale’s dry spell, had their four-game winning streak snapped when they dropped a 9-1 decision to Baltimore on Sunday. Toronto, which avoided a three-game series sweep with a 10-5 thumping of Detroit in the series finale, sends left-hander Mark Buehrle to the mound to face his former teammates. “It should be fun. It should be fast too,” Chicago manager Robin Ventura said of the matchup between Buehrle and Sale.

TV: 8:10 p.m. ET, SNET (Toronto), CSN Chicago

LINE HISTORY: The Sox opened -148 and are now -142. The total opened at 7.

INJURY REPORT:

Blue Jays – RF Michael Saunders (Late July, knee).

White Sox – N/A

WEATHER WATCH: There is a 37 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind will blow across the field (RF to LF) at around 14 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Jays somehow lost three of four to Boston at home and now have a tough stretch of 16 out of their next 19 on the road, including visits to KC and Oakland. All of a sudden this looks like a team that needs to reset, so the All-Star break can’t come soon enough it seems.” Big Al McMordie.

PITCHING MATCHUP:

Blue Jays LH Mark Buehrle (9-4, 3.64 ERA) vs. White Sox LH Chris Sale (6-4, 2.87)

Buehrle has been putting up impressive numbers of his own, winning back-to-back outings and stretching his unbeaten streak to seven starts after holding Boston to one run over seven innings on Wednesday. He won his previous turn against Texas by giving up two runs over seven innings versus Texas – the sixth straight start he’s allowed two runs or fewer. He has been tormented by Melky Cabrera, who is 17-for-30 against him.

Sale was saddled with a no-decision last time out despite a masterful performance in which he struck out 12 and limited major league-best St. Louis to one run and six hits over eight innings. It was the fifth time in seven starts that Sale allowed one run or less, a span in which he allowed four hits or fewer four times. The 6-6 Sale has made five appearances (two starts) against Toronto, posting a 1-2 record and 2.84 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.
* Blue Jays are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.
* White Sox are 6-1 in Sales last seven starts with five days of rest.
* Blue Jays are 11-1 in Buehrles last 12 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-two percent are backing the Jays.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Greinke stealing the show in L.A.

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major-league schedule:

Sale Goes For Strikeout Record

White Sox ace Chris Sale is coming off eight consecutive starts with 10 or more strikeouts, tying him with Pedro Martinez. He can set a new standard for consecutive games with double-digit Ks on Monday at home versus the Blue Jays. The southpaw is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two career starts versus Toronto, but both of those came at Rogers Center. The Jays aren’t an ideal opponent though, leading the major league in runs scored, and batting a major league best .307 versus left-handers.

Tigers Over Trend at 16 and Counting…

Detroit has now seen the total go over in 16 straight, and given the way they’ve been playing, there may be no end in sight. Their starting rotation is struggling, and the bullpen has been a complete disaster over the past few weeks. The defense has been brutal as well, evidence by two more errors in Sunday’s loss to Toronto. On a positive note for the Tigers, their bats have been hot, scoring 28 runs in five games in July, and they led the majors batting .281 in June.

Greinke Working On 27 2/3 Scoreless Innings Streak

While Clayton Kershaw continues to struggle, Zack Greinke is stealing the show out west in LA. He’s leading the major leagues with a 1.48 ERA, and he’s now gone 27 2/3 innings without surrendering a run. He’ll have an excellent chance to extend that run at home against the Phillies on Thursday.

Pitching Notes

*Hisashi Iwakuma will come off the DL on Monday to start in the series opener versus the Tigers. The 34 year old hasn’t pitched for Seattle since April, but his performance at Triple-A was quite encouraging. He was 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts, pitching a total of 13 1/3 innings. Iwakuma is 20-12 with a 2.82 ERA in 42 starts at Safeco since 2012.

*Yovani Gallardo has quietly been dominating out in Texas. The right-hander has not allowed a run over 26 1/3 innings in his last four starts, and the last three came on the road. His numbers at home aren’t too shabby either, going 4-2 with a 2.23 ERA in seven starts in Arlington. He should have an excellent chance to continue his success in his next start at home versus Arizona, he’s 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last five starts versus the Diamondbacks.

Hitting Notes

*Last year’s AL batting champ Jose Altuve sat out seven games due to injury in mid June, but he’s riding a 13 game hitting streak since returning. He could be gearing up for another strong second half, as he hit .349 after the All Star break in 2014.

*Cubs Rookie Kris Bryant was benched for the first time in his career on July 2nd, and he’s responded well going 5-for-15 with a pair of home runs and six RBIs in three games since.

Weather Notes

* Forecasts are calling for wind to blow to left-centerfield at around 14 miles per hours at Wrigley Field Monday.

* More wind in the Windy City Tuesday as forecasts are predicting wind to blow in from leftfield at roughly 19 miles per hour.

Totals Streak

The Tigers as I already mentioned have been trending toward the over, and they head out on the road to face the Mariners in their pitcher’s park on Monday. They’ve seen the total go over in nine straight road games, and 22-5-1 in their last 28 overall. The bookmakers are expecting this trend to cool off at Safeco, with a total of O/U 7 in Game 1 of the series.

Injury Notes

*The Nats have placed Stephen Strasburg on the 15 day DL with a strained oblique. The 26 year old has had a nightmare of a season posting a 5-5 record with a 5.16 ERA in 13 starts.

*For the first time in his career, Miguel Cabrera will go on the DL with a strained calf. He’s expected to miss at least six weeks. It’s a huge blow for the Tigers, as the 32 year old was batting a major league best .350.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SLEEPYJ

KC (-137)

Analysis: Here we go again with the Kansas City Royals...It's rather hard to not play a team that's in a good spot..Royals have this once again with Volquez on the mound..Tampa hasn;t been all that great in recent games, but the real challenge will be for the pitcher Colome tonight..Colome has a ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.41..Not really all that good for Colome..When he has taken the mound the Rays has lost 9 out of the last 10..Colome has also lost his last 3 decisions as well...His strikeouts are rather low and against KC, this can be an issue here on the road. His strikeouts to walk ratio is about even..That's not good at all...He also had his highest pitch count his last game out as well..So maybe a little used up, but more important is his l ack to get out of jams at times..KC will get Volquez back on the hill and he is coming of a subpar outing..KC has not lost 2 straight games when Volquez has started all year..KC dropped the last start for Volquez...KC has won 10 of his last 12 starts as well..So Volquez and the Royals are a good wager overall..Not to mentio the run support the Royals give Volquez...In his last 6 starts the Royals have scored 5+ runs in each game..Tampa has clearly been in a bit of a rutt now losing 7 of the last 8..They won the last game, but will now take to the road from NY to KC...I'll take a shot with KC once again in hope Volquez and KC can keep up with the trends they support.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Monday, July 6

Trend Report

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. WASHINGTON
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Washington is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

7:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. PITTSBURGH
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Diego is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing San Diego
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. CLEVELAND
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Houston

8:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHI CUBS
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games

8:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. MILWAUKEE
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

8:10 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
Tampa Bay is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

8:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Minnesota is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

8:10 PM
TORONTO vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi White Sox's last 11 games at home
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games

10:10 PM
DETROIT vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

10:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games when playing LA Dodgers
Philadelphia is 11-5 SU in their last 16 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

10:15 PM
NY METS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets's last 11 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Mets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Monday.... Over 7 Tampa Bay and Kansas City

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Monday, July 6 is:

Chicago Cubs (Lester) over St. Louis Cardinals (Lackey).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Astros-Indians Preview

(AP) -- Dallas Keuchel's business-like approach helps him block out any talk of individual accolades and focus on giving the Houston Astros a solid effort each time he's on the mound.

That type of demeanor doesn't resonate with Carlos Carrasco, who wore his light-hearted attitude on his sleeve at the end of his most recent excellent outing.

They'll oppose each other Monday night as the Astros host the opener of a four-game series with the Cleveland Indians.

Keuchel (10-3, 2.03 ERA) continues showing it was no fluke when he went 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA for the 92-loss Astros in 2014, and his improvement has helped surprising Houston (48-36) surge to the most wins in the AL.

The left-hander has been especially superb over his last two starts, striking out a career-high 12 in a six-hitter to beat the New York Yankees 4-0 on June 25 before winning by the same score Tuesday after giving up seven hits in eight innings against Kansas City.

Keuchel became the first Astros pitcher to win 10 games before the All-Star break since Roy Oswalt in 2005.

"He gets after it every five days, and I think that he does that trying to be the best more than trying to accomplish anything outside of a win," manager A.J. Hinch said.

Keuchel has tossed at least six innings while not allowing an earned run in seven of his 17 outings, including April 6 when he allowed three hits in seven innings of a 2-0 win over Cleveland. He's 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three career starts against the Indians (38-43).

He could be in for a duel against Carrasco (10-6, 3.88), who has gotten better as the season progresses and is 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last seven starts.

After allowing two runs in eight innings of an 8-2 win over Detroit on June 24, Carrasco had a perfect game through 7 1-3 and held Tampa Bay hitless for 8 2-3 before allowing an RBI single in Wednesday's 8-1 win.

The right-hander struck out a career-high 13 and showed no disappointment after losing the no-hitter and being removed, smiling and lauding second baseman Jason Kipnis for his attempt to snag the line drive that sailed over his head.

"All I could do was laugh," Carrasco said. "Everything was great. Everyone played good. I had my teammates, my defense. You know what? It's most important that we won."

Carrasco pitched the Indians to a 2-0 victory over the Astros on April 8, allowing three hits and striking out 10 in 6 1-3 innings. He also had the best start of his career against Houston on Sept. 17, tossing a two-hitter in a 2-0 victory.

Cleveland is looking to get back on track after dropping the final two of a three-game series with Pittsburgh. It had won five straight before falling 1-0 on Saturday and blowing a three-run lead in Sunday's 5-3 loss.

Houston is coming off a similar situation, as it had a five-game winning streak snapped with Saturday's 6-1 loss to Boston before losing a late lead in Sunday's series finale and falling 5-4.

Jose Altuve singled to extend his hitting streak to 13, and rookie Carlos Correa had three hits. Correa went 7 for 14 with two homers in the series, including a two-run shot in the seventh Sunday before Evan Gattis' go-ahead homer two pitches later.

Correa was still in the minors when Cleveland took two of three from the Astros from April 6-8. The Indians have won 13 of the last 16 meetings.