Monday 6/29/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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WNBA Betting Recap - 6/22-6/28
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (from Monday, June 22 through Sunday, June 28)

-- Favorites went 11-2 straight up
-- Underdogs went 8-5 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 11-2 SU record
-- Home teams posted a 7-6 ATS record
-- The 'over' went 8-5

Team Betting Notes

-- Tulsa (8-1) picked up its eighth straight victory Sunday against Seattle (2-7), but the Storm was able to hang on for the cover. The non-cover was the first for the Shock (8-1 ATS) this season.

-- New York (5-4) got back on track at home with a nine-point win and cover against Los Angeles (0-7). The Liberty had been 0-2 SU/ATS in their past two at home.

-- The Sparks are the only winless team in the WNBA, and every other team has at least two victories. L.A. is also just 2-5 ATS. One thing that is consistent about the Sparks is the 'over', which has cashed in five of seven this season.

-- Washington (6-3) clobbered Chicago (5-4) Sunday, finishing the week 2-1 SU and just 1-2 ATS. In fact, it was a rare cover for the Mystics, as they entered play just 2-6 ATS.

-- Connecticut (7-1) picked up a seventh straight win last time out against L.A. Friday, but they failed to cover for the first time all season. The 'over' has been the rule lately, too, going 3-0 in the past three after the 'under' went 4-0-1 in their first five.

-- Minnesota (7-2) rolled past Phoenix (3-5) in weekend action, covering for the first time in three outings. The Mercury is now a dismal 1-3 ATS over its past four games.

-- Atlanta (4-6) managed a win at home against Washington Saturday, capping off an otherwise disappointing week (1-2 SU). Still, the Dream have been much more competitive lately, going 3-1 ATS over the past four games after starting out 1-5 ATS. The 'under' has been the play for Atlanta, going 3-1 in the past four and 6-3-1 overall.

-- Indiana (3-6) lost their only game of the week, and they're 2-7 ATS overall this season. Next up will be a game at Connecticut Tuesday against a Sun team which is 3-1 SU/ATS at home.

-- San Antonio (2-6) surprised this week, going a perfect 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. They topped Phoenix 76-71 June 25 at home, avenging a 76-71 setback in Phoenix June 5 in the season opener. Both games have gone 'under'. The two sides meet for a third time Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$18000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $25,000 TO $35,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $5,000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 CRAFTY MASTER 7/2


# 8 IDEAL SHADOW 2/1


# 1 MODERN XHIBIT 12/1

We've got good feelings CRAFTY MASTER is going to get the triumph. Has been running competently lately and his style of running should result in a substantial performance. Looks like a strong selection in this group of animals and his positive winning percentage says he has the determination to take the whole enchilada this time. More wins than is normal have been recorded by interesting entrants lining up behind the 5 hole at Mohawk Racetrack. IDEAL SHADOW - This race horse earned a formidable speed rating last out. Looks in good form to come right back. Excellent winning figure makes this harness racer an excellent pick to take home the dough. MODERN XHIBIT - This gelding has been going to post against some of the most competitive horses in this field recently. Could be considered in this race if only for the good speed fig achieved in the last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$36566 - NEW YORK SIRE STAKES TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS ENTREE FEE $710 J MORRILL JR 4 OVER 3,6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 FAST N VICTORIOUS 3/1


# 2 ENDEAVOR 5/2


# 3 ROLL AWAY JOE 4/1


FAST N VICTORIOUS is the best wager in this race. Not many folks know, but the 1 position here at Monticello Raceway has been fantastic for a well above average win percentage. ENDEAVOR - Have to think about a contender coming out of the Monticello Raceway 2 position. The win stat is superb, way above normal. ROLL AWAY JOE - When the trainer Hart puts Bartlett up for the drive respectable things happen. Just check out the 21 win percent. With better than average win numbers, Bartlett should have this colt in excellent position to win the outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 W V A RACES NOT


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 GENEVA LAKE 9/2


# 3 ON MY WAY HOME 5/1


# 2 TRIBAL CUSTOM 5/2


I think GENEVA LAKE is a respectable choice. Tough to pass on this mare with Ramgeet in the irons. Put up a very strong Equibase speed fig last time out. She has been running very well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. ON MY WAY HOME - Has solid front speed and ought to fare admirably versus this field. Has been running strongly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. TRIBAL CUSTOM - Will almost certainly go to the front end and could never look back. Had one of the top speed figs of this group of animals in her last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - SA - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 HASTY MISS 7/2


# 1 SUNSHINE MARK 8/1


# 5 MALIBU BLUFF 4/1


HASTY MISS is the strongest bet in this race. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. SUNSHINE MARK - In this field, this entrant is in the upper half of earnings per start in turf sprint contests. MALIBU BLUFF - This gelding with Caballero in the saddle makes him a solid choice. Caballero has an excellent return on investment over the past month (+28) which should probably help bettors with this selection.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #8 - Post: 9:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,300 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 ROYAL STACK (ML=5/1)


ROYAL STACK - This horse's last race was at Canterbury in a race with a class figure of 77. Dropping significantly in class rating this time out puts him in a solid position right here in this race. When Ordaz and Silva join forces on equines the ROI has been fabulous at +33.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VAULTED SON (ML=6/5), #7 VALICO (ML=3/1), #2 EMEIS (ML=6/1),

VAULTED SON - The morning-line choice is vulnerable here with the lack of works. VALICO - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs recently. Unlikely to see him doing it this time out either. EMEIS - In the last race this racer finished third. Doesn't show much potential for his chances this time out.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ROYAL STACK - My calculations say you can ignore the last race at Canterbury. Contested on a sloppy track, this gelding obviously didn't take to the going.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 ROYAL STACK to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:55pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,600 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 IT'S SURREAL (ML=8/1)


IT'S SURREAL - Colon was aboard this gelding last race out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Rider and handler do well when they partner up. Colon and Sullivan have been consistent together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LIL SKELETOL (ML=3/1), #5 GOLD LEGION (ML=7/2), #1 WORTH A BUCK (ML=9/2),

LIL SKELETOL - Not the right 'situation' in this contest. GOLD LEGION - Difficult to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Doesn't really look inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on May 31st. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced contender. WORTH A BUCK - This gelding is always close, but just doesn't win. Difficult to play him on the top end. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued equine.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #8 IT'S SURREAL on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 6/29 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

7,10/1,6,9,10/1,3/1,3,5 = $48


LATE PICK 4: 1,3,5/7/2,3,4,7,8/4,6,7 = $45

MEET STATS: 138 - 443 / $826.80 BEST BETS: 17 - 39 / $60.00

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 37 / $53.20

Best Bet: IDEAL SHADOW (3rd)

Spot Play: NORTHERN VICTORY (7th)


Race 1

(6) ANTAR PHIL has faced some pretty good ones in his past four starts and this group seems much weaker. He gets top call by default but don't take too short a price. (4) HP BUSHIDO DRAGJET raced much better at Clinton in a Grassroots dash and would be very tough if he could recapture the form displayed in his June 2 win. (3) VIEW LAND has a chance to leave quickly and sit a good trip here. (1) TEA WITH MS MCGILL has good late speed but is a head-scratcher in that he has big gaps in his chart lines - this time 27 days. He is capable but suspect.

Race 2

(7) INTIMIDATE makes his third start off the shelf and you'd think they will be tightening the screws on him soon in preparation for some bigger events. He gets a slight nod. (8) DAYLON MAGICIAN has been super in all his 2015 races with 5 wins and 2 thirds from 7 starts. He is the main foe again. (3) CATCH THE DREAM put up some serious early splits and won easily vs. lesser. He is capable in this class, too.

Race 3

(8) IDEAL SHADOW is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds and may offer a slight overlay from the outermost post. Beat him to greet the cashier. (5) CRAFTY MASTER went out too fast and predictably tired. He will most likely revert to a closing style which has been more effective for him in the past. (1) MODERN XHIBIT showed some life late in his mile last week and could get closer here.

Race 4

Somebeachsomewhere's full brother (7) BRING ON THE BEACH makes his Mohawk debut and looks formidable. He will be a massive favorite in all pools though and if you could beat him out of the pick 4 it is sure to pay. Top call but not a single for us. (10) ARAZI is the other that we'll use in the early pick 4. He showed dramatic improvement in his 2nd start and is most likely blasting here which gives him a shot at the upset. (5) ELECTRIC WESTERN lost to a good one last time and isn't without a chance but the 0-9 record is concerning.

Race 5

(1) O U SEXY GUY came home in :55 1/5 from the 10-hole last week and now moves inside which gives him a much better shot here. (6) WHITE BECOMES HER looked home free last week at short odds than tired and blew a big lead late. She has talent and issues. (9) MMS LUCKY BOY has faced better recently and is dangerous here at what is likely to be a square price.

Race 6

(3) GO DADDY GO tried a deep closing style in the North America Cup consolation but was too far back in a pace that didn't slow much. His 1:21 flat final 3/4 of a mile indicates he is sharp and should be right there vs. these. (1) GOOD FRIDAY THREE made the North America Cup final but couldn't threaten. He is a contender but may be over bet off that factor here. (6) WINDSONG LEO is a very good colt but his 7-race win streak is in jeopardy here with him having missed a month's action coming into this.

Race 7

(3) NORTHERN VICTORY has gone a long time between wins but faces a field of horses here rife with question marks. We predict he converts a good trip on or near the pace. (1) ADVERSITY gets class relief and should be able to work out a good trip here; threat. (5) BODY BALANCE is a contender but often stays in during critical parts of the race which makes us wonder about the driver's confidence in him.

Race 8

(7) THISORTHAT HANOVER is by a top 2-year-old sire and out of a dam that has produced 4 winners that have gone faster than 1:55 flat of 5 that have raced. She has been ultra-impressive in his qualifiers and likely wins this debut at a very short price. (5) TWENTY THREE RED is the first foal of an unraced Rocknroll Hanover mare and she has shown impressive speed in both her qualifiers. She looks like the main foe. (2) MANIANA is another well-bred filly that has unleashed good late speed in her qualifier. She can fill the last slot of the tri.

Race 9

(4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED went on a front-end mission in the North America Cup consolation and turned back all challengers while carving out some quick splits. He'll be tough to beat here. (2) SPORTSMANSHIP was conservatively-driven in the pocket through glacial splits yet still finished close to the winner. He's a threat here. (8) THINKOFAGAMEPLAN made front and slowed the pace to a walk which made him unbeatable. He will have to crank up a lot more speed here but may be capable.

Race 10

(7) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL closed well last week but was too far back on too much cover. This looks like a pretty weak group that he should be able to handle. (4) TICKET TO ROLL gets Lasix after time off for trainer Auciello which is a formula that we've seen work more than once. (6) HIS BOY ELROY is capable of a big late burst and should be included underneath of any vertical wagers. (1) CORSICA HALL steps up off a nice maiden win but has missed four weeks now; tough call. (2) ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES makes his second start back off a vet scratch and could wake up here at a good price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 6/29 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 98 - 519 / $691.20 BEST BETS: 11 - 45 / $45.40


Best Bet: SIR ZIGGY’S Z TAM (11th)

Spot Play: SEA STAR (10th)


Race 1

(1) LENNON BLUE CHIP gets serious post relief. Gelding has every right to pounce and score over these. (3) ALL FIRED UP Another one that gets a cozy slot to work with and Brennan stays. (4) A PLUS HANOVER is seeking his first victory of the year and could be right in the mix; watch out.

Race 2

(4) NATY was sent down the road last out for all the glory. Pacing miss is very capable of making it two straight. (1) GOTTA BE ME should do much better from the fence; threat. (8) KAITLYN AKEEPER post hurts but fits with these; contender.

Race 3

This should be a perfect spot for (4) THE POKESTER to make tonight a winning one. (1) WAYWARD SON moves now to the rail slot and that should help his cause. (3) HILARIOUS HALO rallied strongly to nail down the show spot last time out.

Race 4

(1) CRIMSON CRUISER has tactical speed and retains the fence; ready to boss these. (7) COSMICPEDIA has wheeled off four straight victories; main danger. (3) HOT RODDY takes a slight drop in class; not out of this.

Race 5

(7) REPORT FOR DUTY N catches a weak group. 13-year-old can mow these down at his best. (5) FOUR STARZ TRACE Meadowlands invader put in a mild bid in his most recent outing. (6) HIGH OCTANE N could land a share of the purse.

Race 6

(6) MACS SECURE Sophomore filly has been sharp in her last three tries; ready for action. (7) SHAKAI HANOVER has tactical speed and she should be right in the thick of things. (1) APRICOT SOUR Brennan keeps the faith and the move to the rail can put this gal back into the winner's circle; maybe.

Race 7

(4) OPEN WATER with a return to his 6/16 trip, it could be game over for the rest; worth a look. (1) ALED HANOVER Sharp qualifier at Philly makes this gelding a big factor. (3) NATIONAL DEBT flashed good early zip in his Philly finale; beware.

Race 8

With take a shot with (3) BOBJACKS ANGLE A. Gelding might find these to his liking. (4) ROCKIN ROBERT Two good efforts at The Meadowlands makes this guy a contender in here. (6) INTHEPERFECTSTORM tired in the stretch drive for win honors last out at Pocono.

Race 9

(3) SKYFUL OF LIGHTERS Quite consistent gelding can boss these at his best. (1) IDEAL WILLIE took the 3-hole route home to victory in his latest. (4) SIMPLY BUSINESS closed strongly to grab the show spot last time out.

Race 10

(5) SEA STAR Upstate invader is one sharp cookie. Capable of taking these to task for all the cash. (3) SAINT WILLIAM A gets post relief and that will help his cause; main danger. (6) AMERICAN FLIGHT could land a share.

Race 11

Will hope that (5) SIR ZIGGYS Z TAM gets the perfect trip and mows these down in the stretch drive. (2) FREESPIN N Sharp in victory in his recent trip to the post; dangerous. (3) MARTINI HANOVER Jersey shipper can have a say with this group.

Race 12

(3) AMERICAN RAGE moves to the 3-hole and should have speed tonight; ready to fire his best. (1) STERLING COOPER Gelding was nailed for the victory in his last start. (4) FOOL ME ONCE gets class relief; not out of this by far.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delaware Park (1st) Kippy Fox, 7-2
(6th) Sumba Sunset, 7-2


Finger Lakes (4th) Patron Saint, 3-1
(7th) Rebe Curlin, 7-2


Mountaineer (4th) Geneva Lake, 9-2
(7th) Unbridled Richard, 3-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Deacon Furr, 7-2
(8th) Corinthian Luck, 8-1

Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Aridus, 3-1
(6th) Hey Judy, 9-2


Thistledown (2nd) Flash a Smile, 9-2
(8th) Edge of Glory, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Road Dogs'

A study of baseball road underdogs to this point in the season (June 26) shows it's been a 'Dog-Gone' struggle with road underdogs winning just 43.7% of the games costing backers -$451 at the betting window. To get a better take, we asked our trusted MLB stat crunching machine to break it down by line ranges to see which groups were the best performers. Road Dogs in the lower range (<= $1.50) had 'Lot's of Byte' winning 45.8% of the time (278-329) stuffing +$726 into betting accounts. Road Dogs with some bite were found in the $1.51 to $1.70 range as they won at a 39.5% clip (30-46) cashing +$181 worth of tickets. But, Big Dogs higher than $1.70 were 'All-Bark-No-Bite' posting a 10-34 mark depleting accounts by -$1358. Something to keep in mind as the season progresses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: - Beaten Favorite! June 26 2015

In baseball just because a team is heavily favored does not mean the club will win every time. The baseball season is a long, grueling one and there are days when teams don't give their best efforts. Ace pitchers have an off day, relievers implode, hitters slump and/or costly errors are made.

Diving into our baseball database Heavy Favorites, that is chalk of -$1.70 or higher have won at a 67.8% clip (76-36) this season for a net return of +$745 for backers.

Now, one would assume the 36 mentioned 'Beaten Heavy Favorites' would pick themselves up the following game providing solid betting choices. Well, in sports betting like life itself, Rule Number One - 'Never Assume Anything'. The Beaten Heavy Favorites were far from a sure thing the next outing posting a 19-17 record depleting betting accounts by -$533. Something to keep in mind throughout the season. As always best of luck but above all enjoy the games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Yankees (41-35) at Angels (39-37)

Game: 1
Venue: Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Date: June 29, 2015 10:05 PM EDT

CC Sabathia had not allowed a homer to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout until this year in what was a rare victory for the New York Yankees left-hander.

C.J. Wilson gave up a season-high three homers in that defeat for the Los Angeles Angels, with Brett Gardner and Chris Young going deep for New York.

No southpaw gives up more homers than Sabathia while hitting the longball is a recipe for beating Wilson heading into their rematch Monday night in Anaheim in the opener of a three-game series.

Sabathia (3-7, 5.65 ERA) has baseball's highest ERA among left-handers and has allowed 17 homers. Pujols and Trout took him deep in his 6-2 victory June 7, with those solo homers the only runs allowed in six innings.

Pujols had been 1 for 12 against Sabathia prior to that contest while Trout was 3 for 8 with two doubles. Those hitters have combined for 42 homers in 2015, including an AL-best 12 by Pujols in June.

Wilson (5-6, 3.92) will oppose Sabathia again after yielding all six runs in seven innings - with Gardner, Young and Jose Pirela all going deep.

Gardner is batting .489 with four homers and 11 RBIs in his last 10 games.

Young went 0 for 3 in Sunday's 3-1 loss at Houston to snap a career-best 10-game streak in which he batted .459 with three homers and 10 RBIs. He is hitting .388 against left-handers for one of baseball's best marks.

Nine of the 10 homers off Wilson have come in the eight losses in which he has started.

Sabathia has not received a decision in three outings since he beat the Angels. He gave up six runs over 4 2-3 innings in Tuesday's 11-6 defeat to Philadelphia.

Sabathia is 1-2 with a 7.07 ERA in his last seven starts, failing to record an out past the sixth inning in all of them. Right-handed hitters are batting .339 against him.

"I've seen him too many times not to believe in him," manager Joe Girardi said. "It's frustrating for him but as I said, we'll continue to work at it and we'll get it right."

Sabathia is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA in nine starts against the Angels since joining the Yankees, including two wins in the 2009 ALCS.

Wilson seeks to avoid losing consecutive home outings for the first time since July 28-Aug. 13, 2012. He was tagged for a season-high seven earned runs in 3 1-3 innings in Tuesday's 13-3 loss to the Astros.

"When you give up that many runs I guess in that short of an outing, not a lot is working," Wilson said.

The left-hander is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA in seven starts against New York with Los Angeles. Alex Rodriguez is 3 for 24 in this matchup in regular-season play and Mark Teixeira is 2 for 25.

New York (41-35) swept three games from Los Angeles from June 5-7 and has captured 11 of the last 14 meetings. The Yankees split four in Houston to start this seven-game trip.

The Angels (39-37) improved to 4-2 on a nine-game homestand when Kole Calhoun scored on a wild pitch in the bottom of the 10th inning Sunday in a 3-2 win over Seattle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Over-Whelming'

When the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers open their four game set at Citizens Bank Park the clubs will look to continue a solid trend for 'Over' gamblers. In the last 8 meetings 'Over' has been the right choice 6 times with 2 'Under'. Another positive for 'Over' gamblers, Phillies Sean O'Sullivan (1-5, 5.34 ERA) has been smoked for 5 yard-ball, 11 runs the past three and Phillies have had a penchant for 'Over' the past twelve on home field posting a 11-1 'Over' record. Additionally, Jimmy Nelson (4-8, 4.34 ERA) tagged for 3 long-ball, 11 runs his last three on the hill has seen the 'Over' in 7 of his last 8 following a quality start the previous effort. Finally, Brewers have seen 'Over' payoff in 7 of its last 10 opening a series and in 6 of 10 on the road vs a team with a losing record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays June 29, 7:05 EST

Blue Jays put a 14-4 home streak on the line when they host Boston Red Sox. R.A. Dickey toes the rubber for John Gibbons' crew. The knuckler carries a 3-7 record, 4.88 ERA to the hill along with a smart 6-2 Team Start Record at the Rogers Center. Clay Buchholz gets starting duties for Boston. The right-hander sitting at 5-6 with a 3.68 ERA looks for his third straight win after going seven innings in his last effort allowing just one earned run while striking out seven.

Interesting betting nugget. Buchholz carries a sparkling 17-1 June Team Start Record to the mound. The lone blemish came on June 13th at Fenway when hooked up against Dickey who is now 3-1 vs Boston when they hand the ball to Buchholz.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

INDIANS (Anderson) @ RAYS (Karns) 7:10 PM

Take: RAYS -130

Cody Anderson makes his second big league start for the Indians, and Cleveland fans are hoping he can duplicate his very impressive debut. That’s certainly possible, but a couple of factors have me believing it’s not likely and that tonight’s result won’t be as pleasant.

I’m a believer in routines for pitchers, mostly because they seem to be. There is all kinds of data that refutes the belief that a team needs to put pitchers in roles. That’s the essence of the stathead argument against the need for predetermined closers. You won’t get any argument from me on the numbers, as they don’t lie. But there’s also not much doubt that if an entire group believes something to be true, then it is for them, even if it really isn’t. Big league bullpen denizens, the guys who actually do the pitching, are en masse firm believers that they require defined roles to succeed. Thus, contrary to actual evidence, it become a truism of sorts as the players themselves are simply convinced that this is the way it has to be.

Starting pitchers are also creatures of habit, and we have a situation tonight that could be an issue for rookie Cody Anderson. Great first game to be sure, but he hasn’t worked since and that means he’s now out of his routine with eight days between appearances. Don’t ask me why this is such a big deal. I’m not a major league pitcher. But the pitchers themselves hate it, and my opinion, for what it’s worth, is that this could mentally screw with a kid just called up more than a grizzled veteran.

There’s a less complex issue here as well. That’s the Indians offense, which arrives at the Slop in stone cold form. Cleveland scored zero runs in two games on Sunday. Maybe they can break out against Rays starter Nate Karns tonight. But Karns has been pitching decent ball for Tampa Bay and he’s turning out to be a solid middle of the rotation guy for the Rays.

The Rays figure to be a popular betting choice tonight and while they might have been undervalued earlier this season, I don’t think that’s the case currently. In other words, no real bargain to be had here in terms of the price. But I think it’s a favorable situation for the hosts, and I believe Anderson is a bounce candidate this evening. I’ll recommend the Rays as tonight’s Bonus Play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teyas Sports

6/29/2015 FREE PICK ANGELS OVER 8

DID YOU KNOW? DODGERS @ DBACKS THE DODGERS ARE 23-6 THEIR LAST 29 MEETINGS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Bonus Play Boston Red Sox

I'm recommending a play on the Red Sox on Monday night. Boston has played better ball of late, winning six of their last 10. Tonight, they'll send Clay Buchholz to the hill to face the Toronto Blue Jays. The Boston hurler has fared well against the Jays in his career, including a 0.34 HRs/9 IP mark since the 2010 season. I expect the right-hander to gain a measure of revenge after starting Boston's 5-4 loss to Toronto two weeks ago. R.A. Dickey hasn't been quite so fortunate when facing the Sox. As reported, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, and Pablo Sandoval all have more than 20 at-bats against the knuckleballer and all are hitting better than .300 against him. Boston enters on an 8-2 run when Buchholz is listed as a road underdog up to +150, and they're 11-1 in his last 12 starts in Toronto. I'm recommending a play on the Red Sox on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

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Doc's Sports

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Monday MLB Bonus Play from Doc's Sports Take #905 Boston Red Sox (+110) over Toronto Blue Jays (Monday, 7:05pm EST)

It's been three years since he joined the Toronto Blue Jays, and R.A. Dickey has still yet to find the magic he once had with his knuckleball. In a short time he went from Cy Young in the NL, to one of the worst starting pitchers in the AL. One of Dickey's problems has been the long ball, and it certainly doesn't help that he pitches in the Rogers Centre. But Dickey's strikeout rate has taken a considerable dive down to just 5.6 per nine innings in 2015. That has resulted in a horrid 4.88 ERA this season - his worst mark since 2008. It's hard to see things getting any better for Dickey at age 40. The Red Sox counter with right-hander Clay Buchholz, who has had a nice bounce back season in 2015. He enters Monday's game with a 3.68 ERA and is coming off of two really strong performances against the Orioles and Braves. It hasn't been a good season for Red Sox nation, but they have a big enough edge on the mound in this one to get the job done. Take Boston.

 

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Mike Lundin

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles

Free Pick 8* Baltimore Orioles

The Texas Rangers bats have been very quiet of late resulting in seven losses in their last eight games and I think they'll struggle tonight as well when facing Bud Norris on the mound. While the right-hander's season ERA is an atrocious 6.70, keep in mind that he's allowed just two earned runs over his last two starts, and he has a respectable 2.82 ERA over four starts for the month. The Rangers will turn to veteran southpaw Wandy Rodriguez who lasted only four innings his last turn when he gave up eight runs on 11 hits in an 8-2 home-loss to the A's. The current Baltimore team has a .293 AVG over 43 at bats against Rodriguez and ranks among the best in baseball over the last seven days with 44 runs scored and a .304 AVG.

Note that:
- Baltimore has won six straight against a left-handed starter and batting .278 against lefties on the season.
- J.J Hardy is 7-for-24 with four doubles and two homers against Rodriguez lifetime.
- Baltimore has won 11 of the last 12 meetings overall and six straight match-ups home at Camden Yards.