Monday 6/26/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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JOSEPH D'AMICO
MLB | Jun 26, 2017

Monday's FREE MLB WINNER: Colorado over San Francisco.
Game 955.
7:05 pm pst.

Colorado has lost 5 in a row to drop the team into 3rd place in the competitive, NL West. But playing the cellar-dwelling, San Francisco club is just what the doctor ordered. The Rockies start German Marquez. The RH has allowed just 1 ER in each of his L3 turns to bring his campaign up to 5-3 with a 3.92 mark. San Fran owns the worst home record in baseball at 14-21, averaging a mere, 3.76 RPG at AT&T Park. The Giants give Jeff Samardzija the nod. The RH has won just 1 of his L6 starts en route to a 2-9, 4.74 record, which includes an 0-3, 9.33 ERA mark vs. the Rockies this year. Colorado is 10-1 their L11 meetings vs. San Francisco and 7-1 in Marquez's L 8 overall starts. San Francisco is 5-21 their L26 games played overall and 1-5 in Samardzija's L6 overall starts. Take the Rockies. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Play: Cleveland Indians

Mike Lundin has cashed four of his last five free picks. Start the week with another free winner at the ballpark featuring #Rangers vs. #Indians.
The Cleveland Indians were swept at Minnesota over the weekend, but I like them to bounce back with victory when hosting the Texas Rangers home at Progressive Field Monday night.
Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 2.99 ERA) takes the ball for Cleveland. Cleveland has won eight of his last 10 starts and he's allowed just three runs in 17 2/3 innins through his last three turns. Texas turns to left-hander Cole Hamels (2-0, 3.03 ERA) who will make his first start since April 26 as he's been out with a strained right oblique.
The Indians are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 0-4 in Hamels' last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PURE LOCK

Pure Lock's FREE MLB play Monday 6-26-17

LA Dodgers -1 1/2 -110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY DAVIS
MLB | Jun 26, 2017
Reds vs. Cardinals
Cardinals-1½ +145

The Cardinals had a great come back last night in which I had them on the RL. While I know this is a quick turn around sometimes after a win like that it's great to get back out there as soon as possible.
Wacha takes the mound who is 3-1 at home this season with a 3.50 ERA. The main key for me here is that he had dominated the Reds for his career. He is 7-1 lifetime with a 2.38 ERA.
Reds counter with Finnegan who I believe is still rusty after three 3 starts. He has only pitched 10 total innings and has had big time struggles with his command walking 9 in those 10 innings. Cardinals should have the confidence after last night to carry this over today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HANDICAPPERS HUB
MLB | Jun 26, 2017
Rangers vs. Indians
Rangers+162

Love this price here tonight for Cole Hamels against the struggling Indians who just got swept by the Twins at home. It seems as though the Cleveland offense has completely disappeared, scoring just 2 runs total all weekend and I think Cole will keep them quiet again here tonight.
Look for a low scoring, pitchers duel here in Cleveland with the Rangers getting just enough to get the W on the road and keep the Indians ice cold.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Diamondbacks -1.5

Arizona is rolling right now and I look for them to keep it going with another comfortable win over the Phillies in the finale of their 4-game series. The Diamondbacks are 14-3 in their last 17 and 13-2 in their last 15 games at home. They are in a prime spot to not only win, but win by more than 2 runs with ace Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke is having a huge bounce back year and has owned the Phillies, going 7-1 with a 2.48 ERA.
Philadelphia is countering with Nick Pivetta, who is 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 8 starts. He's been especially bad on the road, where he's got a 5.18 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in 5 outings. Hard to see him containing an Arizona offense that is averaging 6.3 runs and hitting .289 as a team at home this season. Take the Diamondbacks!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACK JONES

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+120)

The Cleveland Indians were just swept at home in a 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a win today in Game 1 of this series against the Texas Rangers, who are in line for a letdown after winning their series at the New York Yankees over the weekend.

Carlos Carrasco has been the ace of the Indians' staff this season, going 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 14 starts. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts, and the Indians have won all three of those games by two runs or more.

Cole Hamels will be on a pitch count in his first start back from the DL. He has been out since April 26th with a strained right oblique. Hamels is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against Cleveland.

Cleveland is a perfect 10-0 after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. It is winning by 4.7 runs per game in this spot. Carrasco is 17-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons. The Indians are winning these starts by 2.1 runs per game on average. Bet the Indians on the Run Line Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit Bonus Play on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are now 16-1 in their last 17 games overall after winning 10 straight coming in. A whopping 12 of their last 13 wins have come by two runs or more as well. I think the hottest team in baseball will win this game by at least two runs as they feast on Angels starter Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-9 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 15 starts this year. Nolasco has allowed 10 runs and four homers in 11 1/3 innings over his last two starts. The Angels are 0-6 in Nolasco's last six road starts. The Dodgers are 45-14 in their last 59 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ASA

Bonus Play on Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) over San Francisco Giants, Monday at 10:05 PM ET

The Rockies look like a dangerous dog in this one. With both these teams on losing streaks the value appears to clearly lie with the underdog in this one. Colorado has had the Giants number this season as San Francisco is an ugly 1-10 in their meetings so far this year! With that said, we are all over the dog here as the Rockies are 7-1 in the last starts that German Marquez has made. He had one bad outing and in the other 7 outings Marquez has compiled an amazing 1.45 ERA in 38 and 2 / 3 innings over these 7 starts! Jeff Samardzija can't be happy about seeing the Rockies here. In his 3 starts against them this season, the Giants right-hander has given up 19 earned runs in his 18 and 1 / 3 innings versus Colorado this season. Samardzija is 2-9 on the season and this is unlikely to be the team that helps him snap out of his struggles this season. He has given up 6 homers in his last 3 starts, Marquez has not allowed a home in any of his last 3 starts! The Rockies are 25-16 on the road this season while the Giants are a horrible 1-12 their last 13 games! The Rockies are averaging 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. San Francisco is averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season. We are grabbing the road pup value in this one! Bonus Play: Bet the Colorado Rockies on the money line in late night action Monday!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ANDRE RAMIREZ
MLB | Jun 26, 2017
Yankees vs. White Sox
Yankees-151

Rookie Jordan Montgomery makes his 14th start of the season for the Yankees. He is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.246 WHIP, 26 walks and 71 strikeouts over 74.2 innings of work this season. Montgomery picked up a victory his last time out, which came Wednesday at home against the Angels. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts as the Yankees rolled to an 8-4 win. Montgomery is 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, four walks and 18 strikeouts over 18.1 innings of work in his last three starts. He beat the White Sox in his lone career start against them, which came at home April 17. Montgomery allowed three runs on seven hits with two walks and four strikeouts over six innings in a 7-4 Yankees win. This marks his first career outing at Guaranteed Rate Field.
David Holmberg gets the call for his 15th appearance and sixth start of the season for the White Sox. He is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA, a 1.042 WHIP, 11 walks and 20 strikeouts over 31.2 innings of work this season. Holmberg made a relief appearance against the A’s Friday night, not factoring in the decision. He threw a scoreless inning in a 3-0 Chicago loss. Holmberg is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, four walks and 11 strikeouts over 12.2 innings in his last three starts. In his 29th major league appearance and his 18th start, he faces the Yankees for the first time in his career. Holmberg has no record with a 2.77 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP over 13 innings in six career appearances, two starts, at Guaranteed Rate Field.
The value in this this game is with the Yankees. The Yankees are 4-1, and have momentum. I have the Yankees winning 5-3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R&R TOTALS

R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Monday 6-26-17

OVER 9 Cincinnati/St Louis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dwayne Bryant

Philadelphia/ Arizona
Under 8.5

Arizona's Zack Greinke has a low 4.9 BB%, an impressive 3.11 xFIP, and has K'd 111 batters in just 97 1/3 innings. The Phillies have averaged just 2.6 runs in 11 road day games against righties. Arizona has averaged 4.1 runs in seven home day games against righties. The D'backs have never faced Nick Pivetta, and that should give the Phillies righty an advantage early in this contest. Pivetta also averages better than a K per inning, which is always a plus when betting Unders. Arizona's pen has been solid at home, and is in great current form. The Phillies pen is awful, and that relegates this play to 1% Bonus Play status.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Harry Bondi

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +150

Their is just no way to back the Yankees right now, particularly at this inflated price. Bombers have lost 6 in a row and 10 of their last 12 and while the White Sox have also been bad, we’ll take almost anybody at +150 against New York right now. Another BIG DOG Winner.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

REDS +135

Brandon Finnegan returns from his rehab stint, and the Reds lefty appears to be completely healthy once again. Finnegan is hoping to gain more consistency with his control. When the southpaw isn’t beating himself wth free passes, he’s a pretty good pitcher.

Michael Wacha might well be pitching for his rotation spot here. Rough sledding for the Cardinals righty of late. Five of Wacha’s last six starts have been mostly mediocre. Wacha has gotten past six innings only once all season, which means an almost guaranteed multiple inning effort by the bullpen every time he pitches.

There’s not much to like with either of these teams. The surprising hot start for the Reds is now a memory and they haven’t been winning much lately. But neither have the Cardinals, and from this vantage point, the Redbirds are more reputation than reality these days. St. Louis is also a poor offensive team vs. lefties, particularly at home where the production has been just plain lousy.

I have to lean to the Reds at the price, and while the game is not currently on my Monday card, it’s getting strong consideration.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Anthony

Yankees -151

The Yanks have gone 2-10 in their last 12 games but I like them in this spot on Monday. Jordan Montgomery has been a bright spot, 3-0 in his last 4 starts. He also has only allowed 10 ER in his last 33.1 IP. Montgomery (5-4, 3.74 ERA overall) takes the ball against the White Sox in Chicago. Montgomery is 3-0 in his four June starts and has pitched to a 2.96 ERA over that span. Lefty David Holmber for the Whitesox has hit the 5 IP mark just once, and his pitch count typically sits in the mid 70's. Take the YANKEES here on the road to get the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

San Francisco

The set-up: The Colorado Rockies allowed 26 runs in losing the final two games of a home series Wednesday and Thursday against the D'backs. They then visited the Dodgers in LA over the weekend where they got swept in a three-games series, allowing 22 more runs, while scoring a modest seven runs, six of them coming in Sunday's 12-6 loss (Rockies led 5-0 heading into the bottom of the third yesterday!). Colorado has hit its roughest patch of the season (note: Colorado led the NL West by a half-game Tuesday but now trail by 4 1/2 games!) with a five-game losing streak and is hoping things will improve when the Rockies open a three-games series against the struggling Giants Monday night in San Francisco. The Giants are coming off an 8-2 home loss to the New York Mets which gives them 21 losses in the team's last 26 games. San Francisco is 27-51 (an incredible 24 1/2 games back of LA in the NL West) and owns a better record than only the 24-50 Phillies, although the Giants do own MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$2787.

The pitching matchup: German Marquez (5-3 & 3.92 ERA) goes for the Rockies and Jeff Samardzija (2-9 & 4.74 ERA) for the Giants. Marquez has pitched well lately, having won five of his last six decisions. In that six-start span, he's given up fewer than two ERs in four (all wins) and exactly two in the other two. Marquez lost his only career start versus the Giants, allowing six runs on 12 hits over 4 1/3 innings at San Francisco last September 27. Samardzija has won only one of his last seven outings, despite allowing fewer than four runs six times in that stretch. However, the lone start in which he surrendered more was a loss at Colorado on June 16, when he was ripped for eight runs on 11 hits over six innings. That leaves Samardzija 0-3 with a 9.33 ERA versus the Rockies this season and 3-5 with a 3.91 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts / teams are 5-5)

The pick: The Giants just got swept at home by the Mets (outscored 24-8 in the three games) and now face the struggling Rockies (five straight losses). One of these teams has to win here (Giants have lost 12 of 13) and my bet says it's the home team, with Samardzija long overdue to get some support and a win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Zack Cimini

Boston

Lopsided prices aren't typically offered when two pitchers with strong records face each other. Yet, that's the case here as Chris Sale (9-3) takes on Jose Berrios (7-1) and the Twins Monday. The Sox are coming off consecutive losses to the Angels as cracks within their starting pitching have formed. Yet, Chris Sale is as reliable as they get and will lead the Red Sox to victory on Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sports

Yankees

There can be no denying that the Yankees have hit a rough patch. The Bronx Bombers have fallen back into a first place tie w/ the Red Sox after dropping 10 of their last 12 games. But they still have a +95 run differential that is second best in the American League. That tells me they are likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, I'm not sure I can say the same for the last place White Sox, who are now 10 games below .500 after getting swept here at home - by the A's - over the weekend.

After being pretty thoroughly dominated the first two games, Chicago was in position to win Sunday as they held a 2-0 lead entering the seventh inning. But that is when things started to unravel. Oakland scored five times over the final three innings. Getting swept by the A's, at home no less, is really embarrassing. Consider the fact that Oakland has one of the worst road records in all of baseball and has been outscored by an average of 1.5 rpg there. The White Sox have now dropped six of seven themselves.

Tonight's pitching matchup features yet another troubled White Sox starter, David Holmberg, who has yet to last more than five innings in any of his five starts this season. I expect the Yankees' Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts, to completely outduel him. Earlier in the year, Montgomery threw six innings against Chicago and allowed just three hits.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Yankees

The Yanks were rolling until mid-June but have lost 10 of their last 12 (now 40-33) to drop into a virtual tie for first place with the 41-34 Boston Red Sox. "We're still tied for first place in our division," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "We've had a pretty tough, poor two weeks." New York heads to Chicago to open a four-game series with the White Sox on Monday night. Chicago has lost six of its last seven and at 32-42, sits in last place in the AL Central, 7 1/2 games back of the first-place Twins.

A pair of lefties square off tonight, Jordan Montgomery (5-4, 3.74 ERA) for New York and David Holmberg (1-1, 2.84 ERA) for Chicago. While the Yankees have slumped recently, Montgomery is 3-0 in his last four starts (team is 3-1), after allowing two runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings of an 8-4 win over last Wednesday over the Angels. Montgomery made his second career start against Chicago back on April 17 and earned his first win while yielding three runs in six innings.

Holmberg has made five of his 14 appearances this season as a starter and is 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA in that role (teams is 3-2 in his starts). He allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings at Minnesota in his last start on Wednesday and worked one inning out of the bullpen on Friday. Holmberg is making his first career appearance against New York.

Montgomery has been New York's most reliable starter during the team's recent slide and comes in 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in four June starts (Yanks are 3-1). Despite New York's recent slump, the Yanks open this series averaging 5.59 RPG, which is second-best in all of MLB. The team also ranks third in BA (.271), OPS (.808) and HRs (119) . In contrast, the White Sox average 4.55 RPG (21), bat .262 as a team (10), own a .734 OPS (24) and have hit 84 HRs (23). What's more, Montgomery is the better starter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin Rogers

Angels +197

The Angels travel back to Los Angeles after taking two of three from Boston this past weekend. The Halos have won seven of their last 10 road games, while the Dodgers have won 16 of their last 17 games, including 10 in a row after sweeping the Rockies. Rich Hill takes the mound for the Dodgers in the opener of the Freeway Series, as the southpaw has made nine starts this season, but hasn't lasted psat the fifth inning in any of those outings. Ricky Nolasco is winless in his last 10 starts for the Angels, including an 0-6 mark in his last six road outings. However, Nolasco is an innings-eater and the Angels have won five of their last seven on the road against left-handed starters. I'll back the Angels to end the Dodgers' long winning streak.