SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI +128 over N. Y. Yankees
In his four starts covering just 15 innings in his rookie season, Rookie Davis has been pounded to the tune of a 7.36 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. Davis has struck out 11 batters but the problem is that he’s walked 10. However, there are some positives in his game. Davis’ first-pitch strike rate is 65%, which indicates a big drop-off in his walks issued is forthcoming. He was also a groundball specialist in his minor league career so getting back to the basics here could go a long way in his progress. Davis, without question, is the second best starter in this game and a much bigger risk than Masahiro Tanaka.
Tanaka comes in with some mediocre numbers to start the year and he’s a pitcher we’ll elaborate on more when the time is right. For this one single game, we’re overlooking the pitching matchup in favor of the situation, which heavily favors the Reds in this series. The Yanks are coming off four successive series against the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and against the Cubbies at Wrigley this past weekend. New York swept the Cubs but last night’s game went into the wee hours of the morning and was decided about 3:00 AM EST in the 18th inning. After four intense series that the Yanks were extremely jacked up for, capped off by last night’s celebratory win in Chicago, the Yanks figure to exhale here big time. This is one of those very unfavorable spots for a favorite.
The Reds and their fans will be in the opposite mindset of the Yanks and their fans. Cincinnati is off to a great start. The Reds are 17-14 and are coming off a three-game sweep over the Giants. New York is a big draw wherever they go so expect weekend-like crowds in Cincinnati for this set and thus, a fired up atmosphere for the Reds to draw off of. The Reds have speed (Billy Hamilton is the fastest man in baseball), power and consistency in their lineup and they’re riding a five-game winning streak to boot. The better pitcher doesn’t always win and this is one of those times where situation takes precedence over everything else.
Kansas City +134 over TAMPA BAY
Nathan Karns has two quality starts in five tries this season. He also brings a 4.97 ERA into this start. By contrast, Blake Snell brings a 3.45 ERA after six starts into this one. Now, and because the market puts so much emphasis on surface starts (ERA and pitching lines), we get tremendous value on Nathan Karns and his superior under the hood stats.
Nathan Karns has been one of MLB’s unluckiest starters so far with a low 62% strand rate. That is where the ERA damage comes from. However, Karns brings a 3.42 xERA which is the result of am elite 59% groundball rate, a 13% swing and miss rate and 26 K’s in 29 innings. Karns has the highest BAA among starters with four or more starts on balls hit on the ground that find a hole through the infield for a base hit. He’s putting up elite numbers across the board and will now face a bunch of batters that he knows their weaknesses well after pitching for the Rays prior.
Blake Snell’s 3.45 ERA is a complete mirage. Snell’s luck has been all good but he hasn’t been. Snell’s luck driven ERA has been fueled by a low 21% hit rate and high 81% strand rate. His aggregate skills have been terrible, as have his command sub-indicators: 8.4% swing and miss rate, 56% first-pitch strike rate and 44% ball%. In fact, he's throwing balls at a higher rate than any other starter in MLB and it has resulted in 21 walks so far in 27 innings. Very few of those walks have come in to score, which cannot last much longer. Snell’s WHIP of 1.53 (1.80 in his last start) reveals a pitcher that has gotten in and out of jams all season so far. This is truly a case of the market perception being off and it has created a rock solid price on a rock solid pup.
COLORADO -1½ +225 over Chicago
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
