John Ryan
Wisconsin-1
10* graded play on the Wisconsin Badgers as they take on Duke in the NCAA Championship game set to start at 9:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a modest probability that Wisconsin will win this game by more than 3 points. Based on my work, this is a very tough game to handicap and one that is not worth forcing a larger and riskier bet just because it is on TV and is the last game of the season. I've gone 9-1 ATS since 2000 in the Super Bowls and as the record indicates there were years with no plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 116-64 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (WISCONSIN) after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game committing 8 or less turnovers. Wisconsin lost by 10 points to Duke back in December, BUT do NOT let that be a benchmark for this game. First, Decker was coming off an ankle injury and played sparingly. Second, this Wisconsin team is arguably the most improved team in the nation since the New Year. The team chemistry is by far the best of any Tournament team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game this season; 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; Duke is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons.Take Wisconsin.