NL East Betting Preview
By Matt Zylbert
Projected Order of Finish
Washington Nationals - Predicted Record: 97-65
There were some big, big things expected out of the Nationals last year. While they didn’t quite meet those World Series expectations that a lot of people had donned upon them, Washington still enjoyed a comfortable first-place season, posting the best record in the National League, before anti-climactically fading in the NLDS at the hands of the eventual world champion Giants. Despite this, there is still reason to believe they can reclaim the league’s best record, en route to an appearance in the Fall Classic.
There are a lot of starting rotations throughout baseball that have considerable potential to be special this year, but it is the Nationals’ staff that most likely tops them all. Taking a look at their starting pitchers, one through five, where exactly is there a weakness? First of all, they signed former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, easily one of the top prizes of this year’s free agent market, and his arrival instantly bolsters a group that was already very highly regarded. Then behind him, you have a future Cy Young winner in Stephen Strasburg, who just led the NL in strikeouts last year and is firmly in his prime. After Strasburg, it's Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, and Gio Gonzalez, all of whom are capable of being aces on a lot of other big league clubs. And those are the bottom three! In fact, it’s so good that Tanner Roark, their outstanding rookie from last year, is on the outside looking in for a starting slot. It’s a scary group to contend with, and most likely, this is the best pitching staff in all of baseball.
The offense isn’t as stacked, but it’s still solid enough to reward the brilliant work of their starting pitchers on a regular basis. For one, Bryce Harper is an exceptional talent, and while he hasn’t been the top-tier player that many were anticipating him to be right out of the gate, he’s still been mostly good, while also battling some injuries over the past couple of years. Jayson Werth is another quality player in this lineup who contributes notable production. The Nationals now also have one of the true rising third basemen in the game in Anthony Rendon, who, along with Ian Desmond, comprises one of the best left sides of the infield out of any Major League roster. With other fine hitters like Denard Span and longtime heart-and-soul of the franchise Ryan Zimmerman, there are enough bats here to help engineer a deep playoff run this time around.
Sporting a bullpen anchored by new closer Drew Storen, and mostly established veterans setting him up, the Nationals will have very little problem protecting a lead. Overall, it’s another terrific team on paper that should be propelled by its unbelievable pitching staff, which could single-handedly make the difference when playoff time arrives. You have to consider the Nats as the top favorite in the NL this season as a result.
New York Mets - Predicted Record: 87-75
When pondering the potential breakout teams for 2015, there’s no doubt that the Mets -- yes, the Mets -- are easily in the conversation. Despite the fact that they enter the new campaign with six consecutive losing seasons, not to mention zero playoff appearances since 2006, there is a very real possibility that not only will New York snap out of their extensive funk, but that they’ll also return to postseason glory.
If starting pitching was the one determinant factor, then a captivating season from the Mets would be a given. Of course, it all begins at the top with the jolt of energy they’ll be receiving in the return of staff ace Matt Harvey, who seemingly took the world by storm in his first full season in ’13, before succumbing to Tommy Johnn surgery at the tail-end of it, costing him all of last year. Unfortunately, in a cruel twist of fate, fellow top youngster Zack Wheeler is now the one out for the season via Tommy John, but the Mets still have enough quality arms to field a playoff-caliber rotation. Jacob deGrom is obviously one such starter who can attest to that, as he came out of nowhere last year to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. And rounding it out is a trio of respectable stalwarts in Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee. Even if someone falters, the Mets have tremendous depth in the minor leagues, with top prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz close to being ready. Rafael Montero, who looked decent last year as a rookie, is also on call.
For the Mets to go anywhere this season, they’re absolutely going to need their offense to step up. That especially rings true for the face of this lineup, longtime Met David Wright. You could say the exact same for Curtis Granderson entering his second season in Flushing. But there are also some encouraging bats here that offer promise. Daniel Murphy, for one, was terrific a year ago, finishing amongst the league-leaders in hits. Lucas Duda also made significant strides as a legitimate power hitter in the middle of the lineup. The Mets will hope for the same from their big free agent acquisition, that being Michael Cuddyer, who is coming off a couple of fabulous seasons with the Rockies. The x-factor for this offense, however, just might be the emerging Travis d’Arnaud, their catcher of the future who, at times, has looked like he can be one of the best hitting backstops in baseball.
New York’s bullpen was an incandescent weakness for years before finally developing into a fine unit in 2014. Jenrry Mejia solidified himself as a dependable closer, and with an above-average group of relievers setting him up, it could end up being a strength for the club. No matter what, this will be quite an adventurous campaign for the Mets, and don’t be surprised if they find themselves in the NL Wild Card play-in game.
Miami Marlins - Predicted Record: 81-81
Out of all the surprise teams from a year ago, the Marlins may have been the biggest shocker (As successfully called by this author, remember, with last year’s best bet of Over 68½ Wins), considering they were one of only two teams that had lost 100 games in the prior campaign.
There were a number of reasons for Miami’s sudden emergence, the most striking, of course, involving their once dead-bat offense, which was just absolutely brutal in 2013. Last year, however, saw the Marlins hit like no one expected, proving the old saying that good hitting is indeed contagious. Apparently, budding star Giancarlo Stanton was spreading it all around, as the beastly slugger enjoyed a monstrous season. For his efforts, the Marlins locked him up to a record deal this past offseason, seeking to continue to build around the mammoth 25-year-old. And they actually do have some very intriguing young pieces surrounding Stanton. Christian Yelich, for one, has exhibited all the tools in being a terrific leadoff hitter and should continue his forward progress in that direction. Marcel Ozuna is another nice young player in this Marlins lineup with multiple tools. With the additions of Michael Morse, Dee Gordon, and Martin Prado, Miami now might have enough offensively to get them back into the postseason.
One of the most amazing things about the Marlins’ sudden turnaround a year ago is that they executed it without their incredible ace Jose Fernandez for most of it. Fernandez was lost early on in the season due to Tommy John surgery, and is still slated to miss the first few months of 2015. Even in his absence, though, the Marlins do have a solid starting staff, capable of helping them stay in contention. Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart are two youngsters coming off successful showings, both with the ability to build off that. Tom Koehler also was mostly sharp, probably serving as one of the best No. 5 starters in all of baseball. And the Marlins certainly improved their rotation for this year by adding Mat Latos and Dan Haren, who should each be a great fit in a pitcher-friendly environment like Marlins Park. Once Fernandez returns, their starting pitching absolutely has the potential to rank amongst the league’s best by season’s end.
As for the bullpen, you can’t argue with what Steve Cishek has done as the closer. He continues to be efficient and convert on just about all of his save opportunities, giving Miami a trusting presence at the end of ballgames. And it’s not just him, too, that makes this bullpen so fierce to go against, as their set-up unit is really good when you break it down on paper, with A.J. Ramos, Mike Dunn, and Bryan Morris establishing the bridge into the ninth inning. It will another fun season in Miami in ’15.
Atlanta Braves - Predicted Record: 75-87
Once upon a time, there was a baseball franchise who ruled over their division like no other team in the history of the sport. That franchise, of course, was the Braves, who won the NL East a record 14 straight times -- 14! -- a truly magnificent run that culminated with their final first-place finish being in 2005.
Since then, while Atlanta has only won the division just once, they’ve managed to remain competitive, recording playoff appearances in three out of the past five seasons, but if last year is any indication, the Braves are on their way towards encountering darker days for the organization.
This past offseason, in hopes of accelerating their suddenly newfound rebuilding effort, the Braves jettisoned Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Evan Gattis, leaving them with a bit of a lackluster lineup. They still have Freddie Freeman, one of the better first baseman in all of baseball, but the supporting cast around him leaves a lot to be desired, as Atlanta is choosing to go with young players who may not be ready. Christian Bethancourt and Jace Peterson are two such examples, being given their first chance to sink or swim in the big leagues. The Braves will hope for a boost from veteran Nick Markakis, who was pried from free agency, although he’s arguably years past his prime. The former B.J. Upton -- now known as Melvin Upton -- is certainly way beyond his prime, if he ever had one, currently recognized as the biggest disaster in all of baseball relative to his ludicrous contract.
Throughout its decorated success, Atlanta was known more so for its starting pitching, and if this year’s group has any shot at making some noise, it will be because of just that. While their offense looks a little lackluster, the pitching rotation is actually still a strength, with strong-armed ace Julio Teheran leading the way after a sensational 2014 campaign. Alex Wood is also a viable arm to lean on and is coming off a nice season in his own right, having potential to do even more. Mike Minor, while slated to begin the year on the disabled list, has always been mostly reliable for the Braves, and the trade of Heyward netted the club a very solid starter for the back-end in Shelby Miller. Collectively, it’s still a talented assortment of starters, giving Braves decent hope that they can stay afloat. And with their usual standout bullpen, led by the best closer in the league Craig Kimbrel, the Braves do have a chance at sneaking up on teams. With the expected domination of the Nationals, and the continuing emergence of the Mets and Marlins, however, it’s going to be a tough and draining climb.
Philadelphia Phillies - Predicted Record: 68-94
It still feels a bit odd, considering it wasn’t that long ago when they registered five consecutive first-place finishes in the NL East -- a stretch that also included two NL pennants and one World Series championship in 2008 -- but these days, the Phillies are just a mere bottom-feeder seeking to get a successful rebuilding phase in motion.
And even the rebuilding has been slow to get off the ground, as Philadelphia is stuck with a poorly-constructed roster in terms of youth, thus putting them in a very undesirable position entering 2015 and beyond.
Is this franchise getting closer to returning to prominent times? Absolutely not. Their main slugger, Ryan Howard, has a very team-unfriendly contract that no other organization is willing to trade for, all while providing relatively little production. The two other longstanding veterans in this lineup, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz, are pretty much stuck in limbo, with neither likely to finish out the slate as a member of the Phillies. One of their main young pieces, Dominic Brown, was one of the biggest disappointments in all of Major League Baseball a year ago, which is a shame after the exciting 2013 he had. Ben Revere, a still-underrated leadoff man in center field, is one of the few shining lights within this batting order, but other than that, it’s a very depressing scene for an offense that used to be ranked amongst the better teams.
Looking at their starting pitching, it’s just as big of a mess. Outside of talented ace Cole Hamels, who had been rumored for multiple trade scenarios this past offseason, the rotation is in a lot of trouble, especially after it was announced that Cliff Lee will most likely miss the season. Their No. 2 starter entering the regular season is veteran castoff Aaron Harang, who wasn’t bad last year resurrecting his career in Atlanta, but his window is closing rapidly. And what good is he for a team trying to look for parts for the future? Comically, Jerome Williams, the mediocre-at-best journeyman who pitched for three teams last year because he was so unwanted, is the club’s third starter. The back-end of the staff might be meaningful, with young David Buchanan offering interesting potential after an excellent spring, and low-risk, high-reward Chad Billingsley set for the fifth slot with a decent chance at making a successful comeback bid after missing just about all of the last two seasons combined. Overall, though, it’s just not a good situation. Jonathan Papelbon, meanwhile, is still the closer here despite not exactly being endeared by Phillies fans, and it will be a surprise if he lasts the season. Ken Giles has notable closing potential, at least. At the end of the day, last place is a very likely destination for the formerly Fightin’ Phils.
