SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +101 over Kansas City
Jason Vargas (LHP) is 3-0 after three starts with an ERA of 0.44. Dude has 23 K’s in 21 innings, an elite 15% swing and miss rate to go along with an also elite 53% groundball rate. There is not a pitcher in baseball that is off to a better start than Jason Vargas. Not surprisingly, the market is all over him today. The White Sox opened as a small favorite but by game time, one can expect the Royals to be a near -120 favorite so our recommendation is to wait until later in the day to make this bet if you are on board. If you prefer Kansas City, the sooner you bet them, the less you’ll have to pay.
The first thing to note here is the total of u7½ -120, which is a Scherzer/Syndergaard like total or damn close to it. That tells us that the conditions for offense are not good today at U.S. Cellular. The low total often means that the game will ultimately be decided by the bullpens and in that regard, give a big edge to the South Side. K.C.’s pen comes into this one with a 4.91 ERA while Chicago’s pen has been outstanding with an ERA of 1.79 in 55.1 innings. Furthermore, the Royals just completed four games in Texas and scored 2, 1, 2 and 0 runs respectively in those four games while going 0-4. You could get a bunch of your friends together and score five runs in four games at that park against that staff.
We also have to question what’s up with Jason Vargas. Here’s a guy that recently had TJS and was on the rack for nearly 15 months. Ya gotta love small samples, no? Vargas has a history of subpar xERA and skills and now his fastball tops off at 86 MPH. It takes some time for hitters to adjust to a pitcher that is throwing differently than they are used to seeing and it won’t be long before they catch up to Vargas. At 34 years of age, don't expect the late-career surge to continue much longer.
Cincinnati -1½ +147 over MILWAUKEE
Amir Garrett (LHP) has struck out 21 batters in 20 innings in 2017, and he has thrown consecutive dominant starts vs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore. His off-speed pitches are creating swings and misses and a high clip (14%) and his ability to find the zone (67% first-pitch strike rate) has limited the free passes. Garrett has walked just three batters and he’ll now face a Brewers lineup that started off on fire but that is getting colder with each passing day.
We could spot a small price here in the pick-em range but in these hitter’s parks, we’re going for the kill because more games are decided by two or more runs and the payoff is so much bigger. The Reds are also playing great ball that few saw coming. Projected to be a 100-game loser this season, Cinci’s offense is outstanding, their defense is also outstanding and if they can get the pitching, they’re going to be difficult to beat. Just as important is that the Reds’ love coming to the park every day and now they’ll get to feast on some weak pitching.
Matt Garza (RHP) makes his first start of the season here. A lateral strain cost him a big chunk of the 1st half last season but he was not missed in the least. Garza played with his pitch mix and boosted his groundball rate a bit but that's just shuffling deck chairs on a doomed ocean liner. There just aren't any plus offerings in his arsenal anymore. His velocity is in a multi-year decline and his secondary stuff is increasingly getting tattooed. This is a bad, bad scene for Garza and we urge you to fade him whenever possible. Why is he pitching? Because the Crew are paying him 12.5M this year and they are going to get something for that money, even if it’s nothing.
We’re also going to bet on Cincinnati team total over 4½ +115.
Washington -1½ +195 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
