Monday 12/26/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

St. Petersburg Bowl betting preview: Miami (Ohio) vs Mississippi State

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (-14, 58.5)

Two talented sophomore quarterbacks get their first college postseason exposure when Mississippi State takes on Miami (Ohio) in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Dec. 26. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards - 1,243 on the ground - and had a hand in 35 touchdowns - 21 passing and 14 rushing. The RedHawks became a different team when Gus Ragland took over at quarterback in midseason as he won all six games to rescue the team from a 0-6 start, throwing for 15 touchdowns - nine in the last three games - without an interception.

The Bulldogs make their school-record seventh straight trip to a bowl game despite a 5-7 record, getting added as an eligible team to help fill the enormous bowl schedule because of their academic standing after a 55-20 victory over Ole Miss in the regular season finale. Miami’s remarkable turnaround qualified the RedHawks for their first bowl since the 2010 season when they took down Middle Tennessee 35-21 in the Go.Daddy Bowl. “They are a much different team at the back end of the season than they were at the beginning of the season just based on the confidence they play with,” Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen told reporters. “It is going to be a great challenge for us.”

Mississippi State’s offense stepped it up in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that were not against No. 1 Alabama, while Miami improved defensively after giving up an average of almost 30 points during the 0-6 start. The Bulldogs scored 24.8 points per game in the first six of the season and Fitzgerald was key to the revival, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of the six second-half contests - 258 against Ole Miss - while throwing for five touchdowns and no interceptions in the final two games. Sophomore De’Andre Montgomery and junior Heath Harding each have picked off four passes for the RedHawks.

TV: 11 a.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening this bowl as 11.5-point favorites, Mississippi has been bet all the way to two-touchdown faves. The total hit the board at 58 and that's where the number currently sits.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Miami (Ohio) - QB Billy Bahl (questionable, shoulder), DL Zach Smierciak (questionable, personal), OL Jordan Rigg (questionable, undisclosed), OL Collin Buchanan (questionable, undisclosed), OL Danny Godlevske (questionable, undisclosed), OL Matt Skibinski (questionable, undisclosed), TE Nate Becker (out for season, undisclosed), OL Zach Hovey (out for season, undisclosed)

Mississippi State - DB John Hankerson (out indefinitely, suspension)

ABOUT MIAMI (6-6 SU, 8-4 SU, 4-8 OU): The Redhawks are the first team in NCAA history to start the season 0-6 before winning six straight and averaged almost 30 points during the streak to do it while limiting four of six opponents to 20 or fewer. Ragland completed 62.4 percent of his passes and also rushed for two scores while sophomores Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young combined for 1,179 yards to go along with five touchdowns on the ground. Sophomore James Gardner (40 catches, 658 yards, five TDs), junior Jared Murphy (42, 532, five) and senior Rokeem Williams (22, 463, three) give Ragland three dangerous options in the air.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 OU): Senior Fred Ross is Fitzgerald’s top target with 68 receptions for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns while junior Donald Gray has also contributed with 39 catches and 691 yards to go along with five scores. Fitzgerald logged 52 more carries than anyone else on the team, but sophomore Aeris Williams is quite capable after accumulating 656 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. The Bulldogs often struggled on defense (110th in the nation in yards allowed per game), but senior linebacker Richie Brown (93 tackles) and senior lineman Johnathan Calvin (seven sacks) had their moments.

TRENDS:

* Redhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the favorite in this bowl game, with 66 percent of bettors on Mississippi State. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers are backing the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Miami Ohio RedHawks (6-6) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7)

Date: December 26, 2016 11:00 AM EDT

Two teams that in October appeared to be headed for nowhere in the postseason will meet when Miami (Ohio) and Mississippi State face off in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

Kickoff will be at 11 a.m. ET on Monday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., with ESPN cameras looking on.

The Redhawks (6-6) earned their first bowl bid since 2010 by winning their last six games after losing their first six. The Bulldogs (5-7) got in by virtue of their APR (Academic Progress Rate) when not enough 6-6 teams were available to fill the 80 bowl slots.

That makes Mississippi State one of three teams (along with Hawaii and North Texas) to make it into the postseason with losing records, but the Bulldogs have the respect of Redhawks coach Chuck Martin.

"They have a lot of great players on offense and they do a lot of things that are not fun to try to defend with all their movement over there," Martin said. "And their quarterback is obviously the guy that makes it go. They score on everybody."

That quarterback is sophomore Nick Fitzgerald, who stepped in for Dak Prescott (now starting for the Dallas Cowboys as a rookie) and led the team in rushing with 1,243 yards while passing for another 2,287. He ranks 20th in the country in total offense (294.2 yards per game) and accounted for 35 touchdowns (21 passing, 14 rushing).

In the season finale against Ole Miss, he rushed for 258 yards and two scores and passed for 109 and three more touchdowns to lead the 55-20 win that eventually got the Bulldogs to a bowl for a seventh consecutive season.

His favorite target is senior wide receiver Fred Ross, who had 68 receptions for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Miami is playing with confidence after its midseason turnaround. Injuries that cost the Redhawks several potential starters before the season were a major factor in the stumbling start.

"It's not like they were getting crushed early in the season and then all of a sudden the light came on," Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. "They were battling. They had some tough losses early in the season and just kind of started making the plays and having some confidence to win the games later in the year."

The key factor in that turnaround was the emergence of sophomore quarterback Dan Ragland. Injured in the spring and unavailable at the start, Ragland took over at midseason and guided the Redhawks to six consecutive wins. All were in conference play, resulting in a 6-2 league mark that gave them a share of first place with Ohio in the East Division of the Mid-America Conference.

Martin said his Redhawks are excited to be playing a Southeastern Conference opponent, but knows they face a tough task in the program's first meeting with the Bulldogs.

"We know we have to play the best football game of our lives -- and our smartest football game of our lives -- to really give us a chance," he said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Quick Lane Bowl betting preview: Maryland vs Boston College

Maryland Terrapins vs Boston College Eagles (+2, 43.5)

Former ACC foes Maryland and Boston College both rebounded from three-win campaigns a season ago and look to finish on a winning note when they tangle in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit the day after Christmas. The Terrapins, in head coach D.J. Durkin's first year, are seeking their first bowl win since 2010, while the Eagles are looking to snap a five-game bowl losing streak that dates back to 2008. Durkin's squad had a four-game slide down the stretch in which it was outscored 191-49 before defeating Rutgers in the last game of the regular season to gain bowl eligibility, while Boston College won its final two contests to reach a bowl game for the third time in four years under coach Steve Addazio.

The game could be decided in the battle between Maryland's running game and Boston College's stout rush defense, which is ranked seventh in the country. The Terrapins have four players with more than 100 rushing yards and at least 6.0 yards per carry, and leader Ty Johnson (845 yards, four touchdowns) is second nationally with 8.9 per attempt after picking up 168 yards on 11 carries in the win over Rutgers. Freshman Lorenzo Harrison piled up 7.2 per carry and led the way with five rushing TDs, but his status is in doubt after a late-season suspension.

Durkin and Addazio were on the same staff at Florida in 2010 and the latter was singing the praises of Maryland's first-year leader. "When he came to Florida, we wanted him so desperately to come and I was the interim head coach at that time," Addazio told reporters. "He had worked with Urban Meyer in the past and had a chance to be around D.J., his passion, his energy, so his career path hasn't surprised me in the least. I always said to myself, this is a guy that's going to be destined to be a great head football coach." Durkin, who was in charge of special teams and linebackers while working alongside Addazio that year, expressed similar sentiments. "A lot of our program, what we do and what is based on is right in line with Steve and to be honest with you, the things I learned from Steve," Durkin told the media. "I can't say enough. I said earlier, Steve's a guy I look up to in the profession."

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this bowl game with Boston College as slight 1-point favorites, but the line has jumped the fence to Maryland -2. The total hit the board at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Maryland - QB Caleb Rowe (questionable, undisclosed), OL Mike Dunn (questionable, undisclosed), WR Taivon Jacobs (doubtful, undisclosed)

Boston College - No injuries to report

ABOUT MARYLAND (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 4-8 OU): Perhaps a full month off between games will help senior quarterback Perry Hills recover from persistent shoulder issues that caused him to miss two games and leave four others early this season. Hills completed 66 percent of his passes and had 10 TDs against three interceptions when in there, helping the Terrapins to a 5-1 record in games he was able to start and finish. "We think he’s been a really good player for us this year when he's been healthy," Durkin said of Hills. "We've had some ups and downs based on his health. He was back for us the last game of the year. He's back healthy now."

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-8 OU): Junior defensive end Harold Landry leads the way for Addazio's defense and is up for many postseason honors after tying for the FBS lead with 15 sacks and ranking third with 20.5 tackles for loss. The nation's 127th-ranked offense did just enough in the two-game winning streak to end the regular season, as senior quarterback Patrick Towles threw for 257 yards and two TDs with no interceptions. He is one of four players with at least 200 rushing yards but the Eagles - who own an 8-3 all-time series advantage - average just 3.4 yards per attempt, 117th in the country.

TRENDS:

* Terrapins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
* Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Terrapins last 5 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 vs. Big Ten.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing Maryland in this bowl game, with 48 percent of wagers on the Terrapins. When it comes to the total, 53 percent of wagers are on the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Maryland Terrapins (6-6) at Boston College Eagles (6-6)

Date: December 26, 2016 2:30 PM EDT

Maryland and Boston College will rekindle their former conference rivalry in the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 26 at Ford Field in Detroit.

The game also reunites the head coaches for both teams. The Terrapins' D.J. Durkin and the Eagles' Steve Addazio were on the same staff at Florida in 2010.

"Our families are friends," Addazio said. "Listen, D.J. was one of my favorite guys to ever work with. He's intense. He's a heck of a football coach. I think the world of him."

The Eagles (6-6) won their final two games to earn a bowl bid after going 3-9 in 2015. Durkin was able to weather numerous injuries in his first year at Maryland (6-6) and earn a win over Rutgers in the regular season finale to earn a trip to the postseason.

A win would go a long way for both teams in setting a positive tone

heading into the new year.

"The biggest thing when you're coming in, trying to establish, the word 'culture' is used a lot," Durkin said. "There's a lot that goes into that, but it was very important, I think just trying to establish it with our guys of how we do things, the type of mindset, how we practice, how we train, how we play. I'm very pleased with the amount of buy-in we had from our seniors and our team and this is a great reward for them."

Maryland, which moved to the Big Ten in 2014, is just 3-8 all-time against Boston College, including nine games when they were both members of the ACC.

The key for Maryland is protecting quarterback Perry Hills, who has dealt with injuries throughout the season. Hills has thrown for 1,235 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in 10 games. He has also run for 326 yards with four scores.

"We think he's been a really good player for us this year when he's been healthy," Durkin said about Hills. "We've had some ups and downs based on his health. He was back for us the last game of the year. He's back healthy now."

Maryland sophomore running back Ty Johnson, the team's leading rusher with 845 yards, has also been a force this season. Johnson is averaging 8.9 yards per carry, which is on pace to be the best average in 63 years and second-most in Maryland history.

Overall, Maryland's rushing offense averaged 205.5 yards, ranking third in the Big Ten.

The Eagles will counter with a tough defense led by defensive end Harold Landry, who tied for first in the ACC with 15 sacks. Boston College allowed 311 yards per game -- eighth best in the nation.

Playing stout defense will be key because the Eagles' offense has scored just 19 points per game.

"Our program is built on playing defense, running the football, scoring in the red zone, you know, don't turn the ball over, time of possession," Addazio said. "I mean, these guys, they're a high-flying, fast-tempo, you know, I'm just hoping they don't score 9,000 points. That wouldn't be good for the old BC Eagles."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Camping World Independence Bowl betting preview: North Carolina State vs Vanderbilt

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores (+5.5, 45)

Vanderbilt needed to win one of its final two games to become bowl eligible and got both, earning themselves a date with North Carolina State at the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., on Dec. 26. The Wolfpack needed an unlikely finish as well and ended up knocking off rival North Carolina in the regular-season finale to earn its third straight bowl appearance. The Commodores are returning to postseason play after a two-year bowl absence.

Vanderbilt made three straight bowl appearances under former coach James Franklin, including a 38-24 triumph over N.C. State in the 2012 Music City Bowl, but is going for the first time since Derek Mason took over the program. Mason was in danger of missing out on a bowl for the third straight season until engineering a 4-2 finish that included wins over Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Commodores put up two of their three highest point totals of the season in the final two contests and piled up 608 yards in the 45-34 win over the Volunteers in the regular-season finale.

The Wolfpack looked as though they would miss out on bowl season during a four-game slide in the middle of conference play, but tight losses to ACC powers Clemson and Florida State showed glimpses of what N.C. State could become. The 28-21 upset win at North Carolina in the finale not only made the Wolfpack bowl eligible, but it likely saved coach Dave Dorean's job. "We remain committed to becoming a Top 25 program and Dave shares that vision," N.C. State athletic director Debbie Yow said in a statement after the win over the Tar Heels.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN 2.

LINE HISTORY: North Carolina State opened this game favored by a field goal, but they have since been bet up to -5.5. The total hit the board at 44 and has been bet up a single point to sit at the current number of 45.

WEATHER REPORT: It could get messy at the Independence Bowl with an 86 percent chance of rain around kickoff and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. Temperatures will be in the high 60's for the game.

INJURY REPORT:

North Carolina State - QB Ryan Finley (probable, head), DE James Smith-Williams (questionable, undisclosed), TE Cole Cook (questionable, undisclosed)

Vanderbilt - G Delando Crooks (questionable, undisclosed), LB Nigel Bowden (questionable, undisclosed)

ABOUT VANDERBILT (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-7-1 OU): The Commodores averaged 13.2 points in going 1-5 in the first six SEC games but totaled 83 points in the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee and threw four TD passes in the last two games - marking the only two times this season that he threw for multiple TDs in a game. Vanderbilt already had a bowl berth sewn up thanks to its strong Academic Progress Rate before the finale but wanted to make a statement that it belonged in the postseason with a win.

ABOUT N.C. STATE (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 OU): Wolfpack senior running back Matthew Dayes was a second-team All-ACC selection after running for 1,119 yards and saved his best for last with six touchdowns in the final three games of the regular season. Dayes was fortunate to be running behind a fellow All-ACC second-teamer in guard Tony Adams, and tight end Jaylen Samuels made it as a third-team selection after leading N.C. State with 49 receptions. The defense is led by defensive end Bradley Chubb, who led the nation with 21 tackles for loss.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Under is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games overall.
* Under is 9-2-2 in Commodores last 13 games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: The public fairly split in this matchup, with 52 percent of bettors backing North Carolina State. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) at North Carolina State Wolfpack (6-6)

Date: December 26, 2016 5:00 PM EDT

With late-season success against notable opponents, it seems to have perked up the motivation for Vanderbilt and North Carolina State going into Monday's Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.

"This is an opportunity for our guys to finish off exactly what we started in terms of this journey," Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason said. "This team is excited to test our mettle one more time. ... We finished the season playing some of our best ball and the season is not over."

Both teams are 6-6, so one of them will end up with a winning record.

"They are a team that finished well, and so did we," N.C. State coach Dave Doeren said of the Commodores. "When you play a team that has beat Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss, it's a great opponent for us. Both of us finished the season playing our butts off to get in a bowl game so both of us will be hungry."

There are similarities for these teams beyond their overall records. They both beat rivals to end the regular season, yet settled for 3-5 records in their respective conferences.

Vanderbilt defeated Mississippi and Tennessee in the final two weeks to gain bowl eligibility. Until those 38-17 and 45-34 outcomes, the Commodores had failed to reach the 20-point mark in any of their Southeastern Conference games.

"I think there are definitely building blocks for this offense," Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Shurmur said.

N.C. State had to win at North Carolina in the regular-season finale to reach six victories following a rough midseason stretch.

"North Carolina State is pretty much a mirror image of us," Mason said.

Junior running back Ralph Webb's career school-record rushing total of 3,231 yards is often the reason Vanderbilt moves the ball. With 1,272 yards on the ground this year, he's 22 yards away from the single-season school record.

Yet N.C. State's strength comes with its defensive front, so that's an area that might be most telling. That group is led by junior defensive end Bradley Chubb, whose 21 tackles of loss lead the Football Bowl Subdivision.

"(Vanderbilt is) a solid team. They beat some solid teams," N.C. State redshirt junior safety Josh Jones said. "They kind of remind me of us. They fought their way to the end of the season. They didn't give up.

"I'm looking forward to playing an SEC team, get down there and compete. ACC is pretty powerful, too. We have to go out there and show people what we're all about. We're just thankful we got an opportunity to be in the postseason."

The Commodores are aiming for a third consecutive bowl victory.

"Seven wins vs. six is huge," Shurmur said. "We're going there to win, not to just be happy to be there."

Two years ago, a Dec. 26 outing in the St. Petersburg Bowl resulted in an N.C. State victory against Central Florida.

"We're 1-0 the day after Christmas," Jones said. "We want to make that 2-0."

That 2014 outcome is the only bowl victory for the Wolfpack since 2011.

Doeren was on hand when these teams met in the 2012 Music City Bowl. He had been named coach after the firing of Tom O'Brien, but he was observing as an interim staff conducted the operations. Vanderbilt won that game.

The Commodores also won the only previous meeting in 1946.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Dec. 26

MIAMI-OHIO vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (St. Petersburg Bowl)...MSU makes bowl with 5-7 SU mark, but remember all sub-.500 bowl teams won SU and covered last season. SEC teams were 8-3 vs. spread in bowls a year ago, including MSU with a win over NCS in Belk Bowl. Dan Mullen 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2010. Bulldogs, however, only 1-5 as chalk this season. Miami-O covered five of last six in 2016, and Chuck Martin 12-5 vs. spread as dog away from home since 2014.

Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.


MARYLAND vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (Quick Lane Bowl) ...Former ACC rivals last met in 2013. Terps lost six of last nine SU this season and dropped 8 of 12 spread decisions in Durkin debut. Also no covers last five away from College Park. BC 3-2 as dog away from Chestnut Hill TY and 9-3-1 last 13 in role.

BC, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT vs. NC STATE (Independence Bowl)... Vandy covered six of last nine this season and was 6-3 as dog in 2016. Derek Mason 17-10 as dog since 2014. NCS 8-4 vs. line in 2016 and makes third straight bowl visit for Doeren, and Pack is 9-4 as chalk for Doeren since last season. Note SEC 8-3 vs. line in bowls LY, ACC 4-6 vs. spread.

Vandy, based on recent trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Bowl game writeups

Dec 26
St Petersburg Bowl, Tropicana Field: Miami OH-Mississippi State
Miami was 0-6 at one point this year, in midst of a 4-year, 5-37 skid, then they won their last six games and are here- this Redhawks’ first bowl since 2010, their 2nd since ’04- they’ve got to be really excited. Miami is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 4-1 in games with a double digit spread. A 12-point favorite from the SEC with an 11am kickoff? Hmmm. Mississippi State is 3-2 in its last five bowls, scoring 44-34-51 the last three years, but that was with Dak Prescott at QB. Under is 7-3 in last ten Miami games, 0-6 in Bulldogs’ last six. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-18 vs spread this year; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years; MAC teams lost by 17-21 in last two appearances here. The game is in a dome; weather isn’t a concern, but it also is a baseball field- average total in this bowl last five years: 45.8.

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit: Maryland-Boston College
In one three-game stretch in November, Maryland was outscored 149-13, but here they are, favored in a bowl. Terps are favored for first time since Oct 15 vs Minnesota (they lost 31-10). Maryland lost 31-20/45-21 in its last two bowls; their last bowl win was 2010. Boston College lost its last five bowl games (after winning 8 in row); their last bowl win was in in 2007. BC had to beat UConn/Wake Forest just to get to 6-6; Eagles are 3-3 as an underdog, 3-2 in games with a single digit spread; Maryland is 2-2 as a favorite, 1-3 in games with single digit spread. Underdog won this bowl SU three of last four years; Big 14 teams are 3-0 in this bowl the last five years. This season, ACC underdogs are 7-4 vs spread; Big 14 favorites are 15-11. This game is living proof there are too many bowl games.

Independence Bowl, Shreveport: NC State-Vanderbilt
Last five years, SEC teams are 10-4 vs ACC teams in bowls; ACC teams covered one of the three they were favored in. Vanderbilt is in its first bowl since 2013, when James Franklin was coach- they won last two bowls, are 4-2-1 all-time in bowls. NC State is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they lost 51-28 in Belk Bowl LY. Wolfpack are 2-5 in last seven games; they lost four in row at one point. State is 4-2 as a favorite, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Vandy is 6-3 as an underdog this season, 4-4 in games with single digit spread. This season, ACC favorites are 17-9 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 5-3. Under is 7-1 in NC State’s last eight games, 5-3 in Sandy’s last eight. Vanderbilt (-7.5) beat NC State 38-24 at home in Music City Bowl in 2012; neither HC was here back then. Doeren is 2-1 in bowl games. Underdogs covered this bowl three of the last four years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening Line report: Ravens at Steelers highlights Week 16
By PATRICK EVERSON

Bettors will hope to stuff their stockings with winnings from the Week 16 NFL slate. We talk with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor., about four key games this Christmas week.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, no line

Detroit has arguably been the biggest surprise of the season and is still atop the NFC North, but has some work to do to stay there after a lackluster Week 15 effort. The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) lost to the New York Giants 17-6 as a 4-point road pup, ending a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).

Dallas (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) will look to nail down home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a Week 16 win. The Cowboys rebounded from a Week 14 loss at the New York Giants – their first setback since falling to the Giants in Week 1 – by fending off Tampa Bay 26-20 Sunday night as a 6.5-point chalk.

“With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, no line yet,” Childs said, noting we will post the number Monday. “The preliminary line on them is about 7, maybe 7.5.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 16
By Marcus DiNitto

By this point of the NFL season, many teams’ chances of making the playoffs are nil, and bookmakers and bettors have to wrestle with the question of how motivated such squads will be in their last few games.

The answer is surely not one-size-fits-all. Teams that are used to playing meaningful games late in the season but recently saw this year’s playoff hopes vanish – the Cardinals and Bengals, for example – probably approach late-season games differently than a team like the Bears that has been out of contention for some time.

“If you’re a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs before, you’re working on (getting better). They may come and play a little harder,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said Sunday night. “Teams that have made the playoffs before and had high expectations that are not playing well, that are out of it, maybe you’ll get a little lesser performance out of them.”

Bettors, though, are kidding themselves if they think they can read teams’ minds and guess with any accuracy how hard they will play in “meaningless” games.

“For the one time you get it right, you’re probably wrong five other times,” said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It’s like flipping coins. You just don’t know.”

Still, Avello says he adjusts his numbers if a team has been eliminated from the playoff race.

“The reason those teams aren’t making the playoffs is they’re playing poorly, so it’s an adjustment of the power rating to go along with the team not needing the game,” Avello said. “It’s a combination of the two.”

Several of these teams face opponents in Week 16 that still have plenty to play for, and even though handicappers are not mind readers, this has to be a factor when analyzing games.

Here are all the opening point spreads for the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, which features most of the games on Christmas Eve (Saturday) but a pair of doozies on Christmas Day. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at 11 p.m. ET, with early line moves and differences among Vegas books also noted.

Monday, Dec. 26

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

A touchdown plus the hook was the original number at the Westgate and CG Tech for this huge NFC clash. Dallas clinches the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win, while Detroit is just a game ahead of Green Bay for the lead in the North.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 16

Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.

Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.

Underdogs That Qualify

Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)

Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.

Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.

Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Underdogs: Week 16 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

I love this time of year.

The smell of pine fills the house, Christmas carols on the stereo and family all under one roof. In my household in particular, we have traditions of lobster on Christmas Eve, Christmas morning mimosas, classic Simpons marathons (classic being Seasons 3 to 8, of course) and plenty of rum and egg nog.

It’s just the perfect combination for me and this year, it gets even better, because not only do we have NBA on Christmas Day, we get football on Christmas Eve and December 25. That sounds like a perfect Christmas to me.

Before we dive into a Christmas edition of “Dogs”, I just want to say Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and yours. It’s a very meaningful time of year to me and my family and I hope all those reading this have the very best of holidays.

*Stocking Stuffer Bonus Special*

Detroit Lions (+7) at Dallas Cowboys

With the New Giants loss to the Philadelphia Eagles Thursday the Cowboys clinched the NFC East and the No. 1 overall seed in the conference, giving them little to play for these final two weeks.

We don’t yet know how the Cowboys will handle this situation in terms of resting players (will Tony Romo see some snaps?), but you’d have to think they’re going to be cautious if nothing else. Either way, I kind of liked the Lions here before Thursday night’s developments.

Detroit has to play hungry with the Packers breathing down their necks in the NFC North and I think the Lions bounce back after last week’s tough loss to the Giants.

As long as Matthew Stafford’s middle finger on his throwing hand can hold up, this is a competitive game. Stafford was 24 of 39 for 273 yards and an interception in the loss to the Giants and is a week healthier.

Stocking Stuffer Pick: Lions +7

Last Week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 24-20-1 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
By Micah Roberts

Monday night has Detroit visiting Dallas looking to clinch the NFC North with a win, which would be Matt Stafford's first division title in his seven-year career. Dallas has already clinched home field and the question is whether or not the starters will play the entire game.

"We got lots of play on Dallas -7 early in the week. Even with the Cowboys clinching with the Giants loss, I don't buy into the fact that this team needs the game or that team doesn't; it's overrated. I waited to take a strong bet at +7 until dropping to 6.5."

The last instance of the Cowboys clinching their playoff spot where a regular season game meant nothing was in 2014 and the starters played for most of the 44-17 win over the Redskins -- Dallas played the Lions the next week in the Wild Card round.

No word on what head coach Jason Garrett will do with his starters on Monday, but even if he does choose rest over rust, he's got a hungry Tony Romo as a nice back-up itching to play if he decides to rest Dak Prescott.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ posted a 9-7 record despite a lot of teams moving the chains. Unfortunately for ‘over’ bettors, there were 69 made field goals in Week 15 compared to 71 touchdowns and those four-point swings can often hurt or help outcomes. Through 15 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge 112-111-1.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ run in the primetime matchups continued in Week 15 with a 3-1 mark, the lone ‘over’ occurring in Miami’s 34-13 win over the Jets last Saturday. The ‘under’ was on a 5-2 run the last two weeks but Philadelphia and New York did go ‘over’ this past Thursday, which snapped a six-game run to the low side on the midweek game. Through 15 weeks and one game, the ‘under’ holds a 26-21-1 mark in night games this season.

Detroit at Dallas (Monday): Knowing the Cowboys clinched the No. 1 overall seed on Thursday due to the Giants losing makes this game very tough to handicap. Will Dallas pull up in this spot and go through the motions? Tough to say but we do know the Lions enter this game on an 8-0 run to the ‘under’ and they have a very good defense. Dallas has also been a solid ‘under’ bet (9-5) this season and its last three games have all leaned to the low side. This total opened 42 ½ and sits at 44 ½ as of Friday but that could quickly change based on what Cowboys team we’ll see this Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lions, 'Boys meet on MNF

Week 16 MNF Betting Preview
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

Odds: Dallas (-6); Total set at 44

Thanks to the Giants loss on TNF in Philadelphia, the Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East division and the #1 seed in the conference.

That means it's all about health preservation right now for Dallas, although staying in rhythm and not killing much of the momentum they've built during a tremendous season would be nice as well.

That outcome also throws a wrench into handicapping this contest as it's tough to expect the best effort from the Cowboys here as winning isn't their #1 priority anymore.

The same can't be said about the Detroit Lions as almost everyone who is following the NFL expects the Detroit/Green Bay game in Week 17 to be for a division championship.

That brings up a lot more issues dealing with everyone assuming the Packers will dominate the Vikings this week, but should Green Bay lose and Detroit win this week, that Week 17 showdown won't mean anything for the Lions who will have clinched the division already.

So with nothing to play for on one side (Dallas) and seemingly everything to play for on the other (Detroit), seeing a point spread this high seems a little absurd.

Not surprisingly, after the Giants loss on TNF, money started to flood in on the Lions ATS, pushing this line down from +7 and +7.5 in some cases down to it's current number.

Those bettors are looking to get ahead of the curve as most NFL action comes in on gameday, so don't be surprised if you see this spread drop even further before Monday Night. It's tough not to agree with that mindset, so if you had already leaned on Detroit before TNF, jumping on board with the Lions sooner than later is optimal.

That's precisely what I'm doing as I'm sure the Cowboys have had discussions on Friday about the best ways to keep everyone sharp and healthy without a meaningful game for three weeks and we could even see a Tony Romo sighting this week.

Rookie QB Dak Prescott doesn't have the career experience to warrant sitting from the get-go, but giving him a bit of a break at some point to mitigate those dreaded “rookie wall” effects can't hurt, and letting Romo face live bullets before possibly needing him in the postseason can't hurt.

Romo is not your typical backup QB that could be put in this position though and that's likely why we haven't seen this point spread drop a little lower yet.

Detroit lost to those same Giants a week ago, halting a five-game winning streak for the Lions and there is no question they've got one eye peaking over at their Week 17 contest vs the Packers.

But if Detroit does want to not only get into the playoffs, but do some damage while there, the offense is going to have to start clicking again and facing a Dallas defense that has little motivation and could be sitting guys is a good place for Matthew Stafford and company to start getting back on track.

Yet, lose this game and no matter what that Packers game is for a division crown, but win this week, and there is (theoretically) a 50/50 chance the Lions could rest some of their own players next week.

At the very least, expect Detroit to keep this game very close (as most of their games have been this year) in what could end up being a contest that sees a few more points then expected.

Detroit is 5-1 ATS in thier last six appearances on MNF, and have a 24-9 ATS run going after scoring less than 15 points last time out.

Add in the fact that the Lions are also 15-7-1 O/U after putting up less than 15, and five of the past six meetings with Dallas have gone 'over' and there are two very attractive plays on this contest.

Best Bet: Take Detroit (+6) and Over 44.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Cowboys

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 45)

Christmas came early for the Dallas Cowboys, who clinched the NFC East title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs before taking the field in Week 16. With the New York Giants losing to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, it secured the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye for Dallas, which will host the Detroit Lions on Monday night.

While the Cowboys have nothing for which to play, the stakes remain plenty high for the NFC North-leading Lions, who could have a playoff berth wrapped by before Monday night's kickoff. Detroit is trying to stave off resurgent Green Bay, holding a one-game lead over the Packers with a potential winner-take-all showdown looming in Week 17. Dallas coach Jason Garrett and Lions counterpart Jim Caldwell both have said they do not plan on resting their starters regardless of the circumstances, and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expounded on the thought process in a radio interview Friday. "I know that in our (2007) season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame," Jones said. "And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7.5-point home favorites, but since then the number has bounced back and forth between -7 and -6.5, where it currently sits. The total hit the board at 41.5 and has been bet all the way up to the current number of 45.

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (-0.5) - Cowboys (-5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -7.5

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Both team would be in the postseason if the season were to start today. That makes this a game that figures to played with playoff intensity. The Cowboys will look to get QB Dak Prescott back on track, with Tony Romo itching at the chance to enter this contest. With this being Dallas’ fifth straight primetime appearance (0-4 ATS the previous four), look for defensive war.” - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Trap game here, with Dallas already having home field for the playoffs clinched. We had Dallas as -7 point favs before the Thursday night game and have since moved to Lions +6.5 with the Lions getting over 75% of the action to Cover. I suspect this line will come down even more the closer we get to game time." - Michael Stewart.

WEATHER REPORT: N/A.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - QB M. Stafford (probable Monday, finger), DE Z. Asah (questionable Monday, shoulder), S R. Bush (questionable Monday, back), LB D. Levy (questionable Monday, knee), DT H. Ngata (questionable Monday, quadricep), RB A. Abdullah (questionable Monday, foot) RB T. Riddick (doubtful Monday, wrist), C T. Swanson (doubtful Monday, concussion), CB D. Slay (doubtful Monday, hamstring).

Cowboys - D. Bryant (probable Monday, back), DT T. Crawford (questionable Monday, shoulder), OT T. Smith (questionable Monday, back), DE J. Crawford (questionable Monday, foot), LB S. Lee (questionable Monday, knee), S J. Wilcox (questionable Monday, thigh), DE D. Lawrence (questionable Monday, back), DL C. Thornton (questionable Monday, ankle), LB J. Durant (questionable Monday, elbow), DE B. Mayowa (questionable Monday, undisclosed), OL L. Collins (questionable Monday, toe).

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-5, 8-6 ATS, 4-10, O/U): Detroit is coming off its lowest offensive output of the season in a 17-6 loss to the New York Giants last weekend, which snapped a five-game winning streak. "Often times we've won several games in a row. We had one bump in the road," Caldwell said of any lasting effect the loss to the Giants may have on his team, which last won a division title in 1993. "A lot of teams have that. It's what you do after that is what counts." The Lions feature one of the league's least productive ground games, ranking 30th overall at 81.7 yards per game, and could again be without leading rusher Theo Riddick (wrist), who also is third on the team with 53 receptions but did not practice Friday. Detroit's defense has been sturdy against the run (98.9 yards allowed), but cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) also did not practice Friday

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-2, 9-5 ATS, 5-9 O/U): The natural question among Dallas followers is whether the team will rest rookie quarterback Dak Prescott in one of the final two games and get Tony Romo on the field. "I'm not going to answer you because I don't want to get anything going at all," Jones said. "I have to pinch myself to think about where we are at the quarterback position knowing how critical a setback or an injury is to any position. But especially at that position as we look to this playoff, that would be very near the top of my list what we've got at the position." Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott could be in line for some rest, leading the league with 1,551 rushing yards -- more than 300 ahead of runner-up DeMarco Murray. Linebacker Randy Gregory, back from serving two drug-related suspensions, is expected to make his season debut against Detroit.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Lions' last eight games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Cowboys' last 7 games in December.

CONSENSUS: With the Lions having a little more to play for than the Cowboys, 61 percent of wagers are backing Detroit. As for the total, a whopping 71 percent of wagers are on the Over 45.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF - Lions at Cowboys
By Kevin Rogers

The final NFL game of 2016 takes place in Dallas on Monday night with an NFC battle between the Cowboys and Lions. Dallas has wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by virtue of New York’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night. Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a victory on Monday, but can’t capture the NFC North title until next Sunday’s matchup with Green Bay.

LAST WEEK

The Cowboys (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) pulled out a 26-20 home victory over the Buccaneers as kicker Dan Bailey knocked in three field goals in the fourth quarter. Dallas failed to cover the spread for the fourth straight game as it closed as 6 ½-point favorites, but running back Ezekiel Elliott continued his solid rookie season by rushing for 159 yards and a touchdown. Elliott has eclipsed the 100-yard mark seven times this season, while fellow rookie standout Dak Prescott completed 32-of-36 passes for 276 yards. Dallas’ defense stepped up by creating four takeaways (three interceptions and a fumble recovery), as the Cowboys cashed the UNDER for the third consecutive contest.

The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 17-6 setback to the Giants as four-point underdogs. Detroit was held to its lowest point total of the season, while hitting the UNDER for the eighth straight game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford couldn’t get the Lions in the end zone as he continues to nurse a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. The Lions rushed for 56 yards as Detroit has been held to less than 100 yards on the ground in 12 of the past 13 games.

UNDER THUNDER

Both teams are solid UNDER streaks as mentioned above, as Detroit has allowed 20 points or less in each of the eight games during this UNDER run. Since cashing a pair of OVERS at Indianapolis and Green Bay in September, Detroit has finished UNDER the total in five consecutive games away from Ford Field. Dallas is 4-3 to the UNDER at home this season, as the Cowboys have given up 20 points or fewer in five home contests.

SERIES HISTORY

The Cowboys knocked out the Lions in the 2013 Wild Card round, 24-20, but Detroit cashed as six-point underdogs. Detroit jumped out to an early 14-0 cushion, but the Cowboys rallied back thanks to a late Tony Romo touchdown pass to Terrance Williams with 2:32 remaining in regulation to take the lead for good. The Lions have won each of the past two regular season meetings with the Cowboys, including a 34-30 triumph in 2011 as Detroit erased a 27-3 deficit.

LINE MOVEMENT

When the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook put out opening numbers on Week 16 games last week, the Cowboys opened as seven-point favorites with Dallas shaded at -120 (Bet $120 to win $100). That number has slightly dipped to 6 ½, while the total jumped from 43 in the opener to 45 on Sunday afternoon.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson looks at Detroit’s latest setback in which New York took advantage of several Lions’ mishaps, “Last week’s loss to the Giants was devastating with great missed opportunities losing a scoring opportunity with a fumble for a touchback and also having a Stafford interception in the end zone as Detroit wound up with more yardage than New York but only six points.”

Detroit continues to play close contests in spite of last week’s double-digit defeat, as Nelson points out how close the margins have been with the Lions, “Detroit has played almost exclusively close games this season as the 11-point loss last week was the largest margin of defeat for the Lions all season while eight of the nine wins for the Lions came by single scores. Detroit is 3-4 in its road games this season and this will be a second straight road test vs. a top NFC contender.”

With Dallas’ recent struggles against the number at home, that is something that could continue on Monday according to Nelson, “Dallas has been a historically awful home favorite in recent years with an 11-29-1 ATS run since the start of the 2010 season. Detroit has not been this big of an underdog all season while going 5-3 ATS while getting points this season, though only 2-3 ATS in the road instances.”

PRIMETIME NUMBERS

This is the final Monday night game of the season as favorites have posted a 6-9-1 SU/ATS record, as no underdogs have covered in losses. Two underdogs of six points or more have won outright on Monday nights this season, including Carolina (+7) last week against Washington. The UNDER is 9-6-1 on Mondays, but four of those OVERS have hit in the last seven games. Both Dallas and Detroit are playing their first Monday night game this season, as the Cowboys are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their past four as a Monday night home favorite since 2010.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Detroit

M. Stafford – Total Completions
24 ½ - OVER (-110)
24 ½ - UNDER (-110)

M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+120)
1 ½ - UNDER (-140)

G. Tate – Total Receiving Yards
67 ½ - OVER (-110)
67 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Dallas

D. Prescott – Total Gross Passing Yards
239 ½ - OVER (-110)
239 ½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)

E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
102 ½ - OVER (-110)
102 ½ - UNDER (-110)

NEXT WEEK

The Cowboys are playing out the string with home-field wrapped up as Dallas travels to Philadelphia in Week 17. The Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles as slight one-point home favorites. The Lions host the Packers in a winner-take-all matchup at Ford Field for the NFC North title. Green Bay opened as a one-point road favorite according to the Westgate Superbook.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lions (9-5) at Cowboys (12-2)

Date: December 26, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The Detroit Lions could win their first division championship in 23 years on Monday night. Or they could move closer to a late-season collapse.

The Lios could close in on a wild-card playoff berth, or they could turn their season finale into a do-or-die game.

Head coach Jim Caldwell doesn't have anything to say about his team's postseason prospects. He's just worrying about getting out of Dallas with a victory on Monday night.

"I'm not concerned about any of that," he said. "I'm looking straight forward at the team we have to face. That's our focus. Our guys understand that as well as anybody. They have a real good sense of that."

The NFC-leading Cowboys (12-2) will know days ahead of time how much the game means to them. If the New York Giants lose to Philadelphia on Thursday, the Cowboys will have the East division title and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs wrapped up.

If the Giants win, Dallas' magic number to clinch both will remain at one. New York holds the tiebreaker over Dallas by virtue of handing the Cowboys both of their losses.

It's a lot more complicated for the Lions (9-5), who lead Green Bay by one game in the NFC North. If the Packers defeat Minnesota this weekend, Detroit's game at Dallas will have no bearing on the division race. Green Bay plays at Detroit on New Year's Day and the Packers would win the tiebreaker by sweeping the season series with the Lions.

Detroit can at least enhance its chances of a wild-card berth by pulling an upset on Monday. The Lions' 17-6 loss to the Giants on Sunday ended a five-game winning streak and had their fans fearing the worst.

"It's still one game," Caldwell said. "We've just got to come together and get better this week and go play the next one. That's the key. That's how it always is."

The Lions' offense has sputtered three of the last four weeks, producing 20 points or less. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing with ligament damage to his right middle finger, forcing him to wear a modified glove. He completed 24 of 39 passes for 273 yards with an interception in New York but couldn't get his team in the end zone.

Top running back Theo Riddick has missed the last two games with a wrist injury. His status for Monday's game is also in question.

Caldwell feels confident in his team's ability to bounce back.

"It would be different if you're 5-9," he said. "Then their perspective would be a little different. That's not where we are. Often times we've won several games in a row. We had one bump in the road. A lot of teams have that. It's what you do after that is what counts."

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott responded to adversity and criticism with a nearly flawless performance against Tampa Bay on Sunday night. Prescott completed 32 of 36 passes for 279 yards and added a rushing touchdown in that 26-20 victory.

That quieted talk about replacing the rookie with longtime starter Tony Romo. Prescott was picked off twice in a 10-7 loss to the Giants the previous week and passed for fewer than 200 yards in three consecutive weeks.

"I don't pay attention to the noise," he said. "I couldn't tell you much of what was said. I kind of found out some of it later in the week but that really doesn't bother me. If anything, it's motivation. I just wanted to come back and perform after the game I had last week. That's the only thing in my mind. He say, she say doesn't affect me."

Fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 159 yards and a touchdown but the game remained close because of untimely penalties. The Cowboys had eight for 91 yards.

"We did a lot of good things on offense," coach Jason Garrett said "We were able to run the ball, able to throw it very efficiently. We were able to move the ball really throughout the game. We got into high red zone on three different occasions and got behind the chains because of penalties. So it's really important to make sure everybody is doing their job and doing it the right way."

Dallas leads the all-time series 14-12. The last time the teams squared off in Arlington two seasons ago, the Cowboys captured a controversial 24-20 victory in the opening round of the playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football Predictions: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys Odds & Picks
by Alan Matthews

The NFL doesn't want teams on short weeks heading into the playoffs, so there are no Monday night games in Week 17. Thus this week's Lions-Cowboys matchup is it on MNF for 2016. Although I keep hearing there might be an MNF first-round playoff game whenever the league adds a third wild card in each conference. That could happen this offseason. If so, that means only the top seed in the AFC & NFC would get a first-round bye, and it would add two extra games -- i.e. more cash -- in the wild-card round. I think that's a good idea, actually.

I will get right to the point here: I would hold off on betting this game until after Thursday night's Giants at Eagles matchup. If New York loses that game, which I don't expect to happen, then Dallas has nothing to play for here. The Cowboys (12-2) would be NFC East champions and the conference's No. 1 seed regardless of what happens the final two weeks. Then team officials would have an interesting dilemma: do you want to get Tony Romo some action in the final two weeks in case he is needed in the playoffs should Dak Prescott go down? I would think yes, but you also don't want to be resting all your key guys the rest of the regular season because you also have the first week of the postseason off. It's a delicate balance.

If the Giants win, then the Cowboys have to care for at least one more week and a win here clinches the division and the top seed. Thus I'm sure that the Lions players and coaches will be huge Eagles fans on Thursday. Detroit (9-5) leads Green Bay (8-6) by a game for the NFC North lead and those two play in Week 17 at Ford Field. I believe that will be the game "flexed" to the Sunday night matchup if it's for the division. Incidentally, Green Bay will have 55.5 more hours to prepare than Detroit.

The Packers are likely to win Saturday at home against Minnesota. If they were to lose, the Lions take their first division title since 1993 with a victory here. Detroit can also clinch at least a wild-card spot with a win and a Tampa Bay loss in New Orleans (very possible) on Saturday. The Lions also can clinch a spot before they take the field Monday if the following results happen Saturday: Atlanta must win at Carolina, New Orleans would have to beat Tampa and Chicago would need to beat or tie visiting Washington. Those results would give the Lions all the tiebreakers for the final wild-card spot in the NFC even if they finish the season on a three-game losing streak. Sportsbooks actually list the Packers as -115 favorites to win the NFC North with the Lions at -105.

Lions at Cowboys Betting Story Lines

I previewed Detroit's game at the Giants last Sunday here at Doc's and took New York -4.5 and the under 41 in the Giants' 17-6 win. My reasoning was that I didn't trust Matthew Stafford after he messed up his right middle finger the week before in a close win over Chicago. Stafford didn't look great in that game after the dislocation and ligament tear occurred, and I didn't expect he would look very good out in the elements against a good Giants defense, either. Well, he didn't in going 24-for-39 for 273 yards with a pick. Any shot Stafford had at the MVP went out the window there. I am surprised he wasn't named a Pro Bowler this week, but no one really cares about that game.

Stafford's injury and the fact he hasn't been a very good cold-weather quarterback means it's vital for the Lions to get at least one home playoff game. I don't see him winning at the Giants or Packers or Seahawks. Coach Jim Caldwell admitted it will be an issue as long as Stafford continues to wear his four-fingerless glove like he did against the Giants. If the Lions win the division then Stafford may not have to play outdoors again for more than a month. At least Stafford won't have to worry about that in Dallas. But the Lions can't run the ball (81.7 ypg), so if Stafford and the defense (20.4 ppg allowed) aren't both on then this team is going to lose. One key injury to watch for Detroit: top cornerback Darius Slay left the Giants game with a hamstring injury and it's not looking good for him this week.

I have to say I'm tired of previewing Cowboys games, but they being America's Team are always on national TV and bettors love them. Ezekiel Elliott is going to win the rushing title as a rookie and needs two 100-plus yard games to close the season to break Eric Dickerson's rookie record -- if Elliott continues playing, that is. He is the +300 second-favorite at BetOnline to win league MVP honors, behind only Tom Brady (-120). Only Jim Brown won MVP honors as a rookie. Elliott had a season-high 159 yards and a TD in last week's 26-20 win over Tampa Bay.

But the biggest story of that Tampa win was Prescott quieting all those calls for Romo. After back-to-back subpar games, Prescott was an astonishing 32-for-36 (88.9 percent) against the Bucs. That's the second-best passing percentage in NFL history in a game where the QB threw at least 30 passes. Rich Gannon set the mark with a 34-for-38 game (89.5 percent) for Oakland against Denver in 2002. Prescott also set a franchise record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with his sixth of the year.

Lions at Cowboys Betting Odds and Trends

Dallas is an 8-point favorite (+115) with a total of 44.5. On the moneyline, the Cowboys are -330 and the Lions +270. On the alternate lines, Dallas is -7.5 (+110) and -7 (-110). Detroit is 8-6 against the spread (3-4 on road) and 4-10 "over/under" (2-5 on road). Dallas is 9-5 ATS (4-3 at home) and 5-9 O/U (3-4 at home).

The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their past six on Monday. They are 5-2 ATS in their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their past six on Monday. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. teams with a winning record. The under has hit in eight straight for the Lions. It's 7-0 in the Cowboys' past seven December games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

Lions at Cowboys Betting Prediction

These teams last played in the wild-card round following the 2014 season. Detroit was a wild-card team and Dallas the NFC East champion. The Cowboys won 24-20 at home, but they were the beneficiaries of one really questionable decision by the referees to call pass interference on a fourth-quarter play on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens, only to reverse it with no explanation. Detroit was up 20-17 and nearing field-goal range with first down had the call stood. Instead, the Lions punted and the Cowboys drove for the winning TD. I believe the Lions got robbed in that game.

As mentioned above, I would wait on this one until late Thursday night for the Giants-Eagles result. That said, eight points is too many to give. After going 9-1 against the spread in their first 10 games, the Dallas Cowboys have lost four straight against the number. Take those eight and go under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 16

Monday Night

Lions (9-5) @ Cowboys (12-2)— Detroit has trailed in 4th quarter in 13 of 14 games; they’re 3-1 in dome games on road, with only loss by 7 in Houston. Lions are 4-2 as road underdogs- they lead Packers by game in NFC North, host Packers next week. Cowboys are 0-4 vs spread in last four games after covering nine in row before that; they’re 3-3 as a home favorite. Dallas won six of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 4 or less points. Average total in last six series games is 58. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-6 vs spread, 8-4 at home; NFC North underdogs are 10-8, 7-7 on road. Lion QB Stafford is from Dallas area, won state title in HS, playing for same HS as Jerry Jones’ grandson. Under is 8-0 in Detroit’s last eight games, 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five.