Monday 11/17/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Southern Methodist at Gonzaga Monday November 17, 11:00 EST

The Zags are loaded this season thanks to a strong foundation of returning players including arguably the best pair of shooters in college basketball in Kevin Pangos nailing 43% from the field, 41.2% from long range last year with Gary Bell Jr. dropping 47.6% of his shots, 42.7% from outside.

Zags had an easy opener defeating Sacramento State 104-58 covering the 23 point spot. Zags face a stiffer challenge when Mustangs pay a visit Monday but will prevail as Mustangs are without second top scorer and top rebounder Markus Kennedy (12.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg).

Trends of note: Zags are on a 13-0 SU stretch as November home favorites cashing nine tickets (9-4 ATS). Southern Methodist have struggle on the road as underdogs in November posting a 1-10 SU mark last ten with a 4-7 ATS record against the betting line.

 

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NFL Betting Recap - Week 11

Overall Notes

NFL Week 11 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-5
Against the Spread 5-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-5
Against the Spread 7-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 2-10


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 105-53-1
Against the Spread 78-75-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 91-65-1
Against the Spread 77-77-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 78-78-3


Biggest Favorite to Cash

In a day where underdogs dominated, Green Bay (-4.5) helped bettors chasing in the late games. The Packers walloped the Eagles 53-20 in wire-to-wire fashion. Bookmakers have been getting beaten up by the infamous Green Bay-Over at Lambeau Field. This combination has gone 4-0-1 this season for bettors.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

The Bengals (+8.5) defeated New Orleans 27-10 as road underdogs. Even though the Saints were 4-5 entering this game, they received a lot of public and sharp support. Cincinnati led 13-3 at halftime and outscored New Orleans 14-3 in the final two quarters. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton took a lot of heat in Week 10 after the club was embarrassed 24-3 at home. In this week’s win, Dalton was 16-of-22 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati was a 3/1 underdog on the money-line.

The Rams (+8) also deserve attention too as they dominated the Broncos 22-7 at home. St. Louis harassed Peyton Manning all day long, sacking him twice and forcing two interceptions. Money-line backers cashed St. Louis as high as plus-375 underdogs.

Home/Away

In the early games, home teams went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. The lone hosts to cash tickets in the early games were the Bears, Chiefs and Rams.

Despite losing 19-17 at home to Atlanta, the Panthers managed to cover as 2 ½-point home underdogs.

Late games watched the host bounce back with a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark.

Including Thursday’s result, home teams went 7-5 both SU and ATS in the first 12 games.

Not so Sharp

Minnesota received plenty of attention on Sunday morning in its matchup against Chicago. The Vikings opened as four-point road underdogs earlier this week and closed as low as one-point ‘dogs at some shops. Chicago captured a 21-13 win at home.

No Carson, No Problem

Arizona improved to 9-1 on Sunday with a 14-6 win against Detroit. The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS and have covered six straight games for bettors. The loss for Detroit snapped its four-game winning streak.

Hot ant Not

The Chiefs started the season 0-2 and were decimated with injuries. Since the rough start, Kansas City has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS, which includes its 24-20 win over Seattle this week.

The Giants have dropped five straight, both SU and ATS. New York lost 16-10 on Sunday to San Francisco, which was the first setback during this skid that wasn’t decided by double digits.

Dirty South

Atlanta improved to 4-6 on Sunday with a 19-17 road win over Carolina. The Falcons are far from a great team but they are in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta only has four wins but all four came in the division, which is obviously the worst group in the league.

Northern Powers

While the NFC South is horrible, the AFC North could arguably be the best.

Cincinnati 6-3-1
Baltimore 6-4
Pittsburgh 6-4 (Plays Monday at Titans)
Cleveland 6-4

Even though the Bengals are in first, they play four of their final six games on the road.

Still Winless

Oakland fell to 0-10 on Sunday after losing to San Diego 13-6. The Raiders did manage to cover as 10-point road underdogs.

Looking at the schedule, it’s very probably that the Raiders will go 0-16. With three of the final six at home, Oakland will need solid efforts to beat Kansas City, San Francisco or Buffalo.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 7-1 in the first eight games on Sunday afternoon and all of the results were clear cut winners. The late games watched the ‘under’ go 2-1. Including the Bills-Dolphins outcome, the ‘under’ 10-2 in Week 12.

Notable streaks that were extended listed below.

The Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last six games.

Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in its last six.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight for Tampa Bay.

Green Bay has seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 this season, seventh straight ticket cashing this weekend.

 

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'Monday Night'r'

Laying an egg against one of the NFL's worst teams last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers try to get back to its winning ways when they visit two-win Tennessee Titans Monday night. Sportsbooks expecting Steelers to assert themselves following the less than impressive performance at Jets have Mike Tomlin's troops 6-point favorites for the Monday Night'r. You do back Steelers at some risk. Since the arrival of Tomlin on the Steelers sidelines in 2007, playing down to the competition has been an issue, especially away from Heinz Field where Pittsburgh has managed cashing just 10 of 31 tickets facing a team with a losing record including a dreadful 9-19 ATS mark as road chalk. But, on the bright side, Tomlin's troops have responded in the second of back-2-back road games following a loss the previous effort posting a profitable 7-2 record against the betting line. Tennessee doesn't help itself here. Titans have struggled cashing vs a team with a winning record grabbing the loot in just 3 of the past 11 and the status as underdog in front of the home folks has worked against Titans as they're 2-8-1 ATS.

 

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Sharp Moves - Week 11
By Mike Rose

(Rotation #476) Tennessee +5.5 – This is far less of a stunner. The Titans are perceived to be a tremendously inferior team to the Steelers, and even though this game is played in Nashville, public bettors don't really seem to care. QB Ben Roethlisberger just hasn't played well on the road this year. Pittsburgh has fewer touchdowns on the road in five games than Roethlisberger had all by himself in those two games where he threw six touchdowns in each. The Titans are two weeks removed from their bye, and they are destined to get a heck of a lot better as QB Zach Mettenberger continues getting his practice time in. Keep in mind as well that Pittsburgh's linebackers and safeties are all sorts of banged up at the moment. If there is a coach who could exploit these injuries, it is Ken Whisenhunt. An upset could be in the making.

Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
Current Line: Tennessee +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Pittsburgh

 

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Inside the Stats - Week 11
By Marc Lawrence

HOT TRENDS

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 9-0 SU and ATS away with revenge off a SU away loss.

 

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Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David

Under the Lights

Just when I thought that we would see some ‘under’ tickets begin to cash, the Sunday and Monday night outcomes saw the scoreboard get lit up respectively for 69 and 66 points in Week 10.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: This total is hovering between 46 and 47 points and it’s hard to justify a play on the ‘over’ when you look at the Titans. Offensively, they look lost and last week’s 7-point effort against Baltimore was tied for the lowest of the season. The one stat that could have me leaning ‘over’ in this spot is Pittsburgh’s performances in late games. The Steelers have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in contests not played at 1:00 p.m. ET and they’ve scored 37, 30, 51 and 43 points. For whatever reason, Big Ben and company like the spotlight. Despite not being in the same division, these teams have met the last six seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3. Last year, Tennessee dropped Pittsburgh 16-9 as a six-point road underdog in Week 1.

Fearless Predictions

Does luck play a factor in sports betting? After watching Arizona’s defense score back-to-back touchdowns in the final minutes of their win last week, I’d answer yes. Those 14 points helped me cash ‘over’ tickets and finally, yes finally, put me in the black ($70). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Tennessee 47

 

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Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Nov. 17

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE ...Titans on 1-7 spread run last eight TY and 0-4 vs. line at home, Titans 0-9-1 vs. spread last 10 at Nashville. Steel "over" 9-5 last 14 since late 2013. Steel and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

 

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NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Nov. 17

Pittsburgh at Tennessee, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 93-64 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Tennessee: 1-8 ATS off a road game

 

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#1 Sports

Monday's free selection: Drexel Dragons pick 'em

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR MONDAY:Take NORTHWESTERN -1½ over Brown

 

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Totals4U

Monday's Free Selection: Houston Rockets/Memphis Grizzlies under 190

 

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection St Joseph's Pick Em

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Dallas -2 NBA

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Philadephia +15' NBA

 

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Monday: Take WAKE FOREST -2½ over Tulane

 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Monday: Tulane Green Wave + 2 1/2

 

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John Anthony Sports

Monday's Free Selection: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles - 11 1/2

 

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Mr. Vegas

Free Monday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/17

Play Phoenix Suns/ Boston Celtics OVER the TOTAL

The Celtics are one of the higher scoring teams this season, posting some big numbers especially at home. They posted 121 against Brookly, 121 against Cleveland and over 100 in four of their over six games. The problem is that the defense hasn't been very good either as they have allowed over 100 points in seven of their eight games. Phoenix comes into this game at 5-5 S/U. The Suns are 3-0 O/U on the road and Boston is 5-0 at home. Both clubs can score, both clubs give up points. High total in this one, but they should easily get over the number.

 

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Red Dog Sports

Oakland vs. Eastern Michigan

Bonus Play on Eastern Michigan -6

Oakland just played at Iowa State and only lost by 12 points. They now travel to one of the tallest teams in the country to face Eastern Michigan. They go from a fast paced game to a slower game. I expect EMU to control the boards and win by 10 points

 

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday 8:00 PM CBB

(551) TENNESSEE MARTIN at (552) ARKANSAS STATE

Take: (551) TENNESSEE MARTIN +5.5

Heath Schroyer is back in the head coaching game following his stint as Dave Rice’s assistant at UNLV. Schroyer has plenty of experience in this role, and I’m pretty sure I know what to expect from his new team in terms of style.

Schroyer is likely going to have some success at UT Martin. He’s a very adept recruiter, and I don’t think there’s any question he’ll attract some perhaps surprising talent to his new locale. Chances are the Skyhawks will be somewhat entertaining as well. They’ll run and shoot and if I’m right, will also be prone to lots of turnovers. Schroyer’s Wyoming teams were like this. He really couldn’t get away with that type of basketball in the Mountain West. But in the lesser Ohio Valley Conference, I wouldn’t rule out Schroyer building a representative program in Martin.

UT-Martin hung around for awhile in the season opener at Marquette before getting rolled, but the Skyhawks did stay within the big number. I can see them having a chance to get a win tonight as they challenge Arkansas State. The Red Wolves won 19 games a year ago for John Brady, but they appear to be in rebuilding mode to start the new campaign.

Arkansas State has no returning starters and the exhibition results were not exactly encouraging. The Red Wolves figure to be vulnerable out of the gate and this is their first regular season game. The team also has two new assistants, so I think they could have some cohesion issues early on. I’m by no means writing off this team, and if the scouting reports are accurate, the Red Wolves will be pretty good by the time conference play rolls around and a threat in the Sun Belt come tournament time. But I suspect they can be had right now.

This is also an annual non-conference hookup for the two teams. Arkansas State has won seven in a row in the series. That could serve as a small plus for the visitors tonight. The veteran Skyhawks would no doubt enjoy getting a little revenge against a team that has had their number.

Primarily, this is about fading a team that lost 87% of its scoring from last season and looks to be so-so out of the gate. I give the visitor a chance to get a mild upset tonight and I’m pulling the trigger on Tennessee Martin plus the points.