Monday 11/10/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Nov. 10

Carolina at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
Carolina: 80-55 ATS (+19.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Philadelphia: 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 1:15 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$11800 - CD 2-5YO NW 5 EXT PM RACES OR $25,000 LIFE. AE: F& M 2-5YO NW 6 EXT PM RACES OR $30,000 LIFE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 BOYSDROOLGIRLSRULE 7/2


# 1 WINTER STAR 5/2


# 3 DE FRAIN 8/1

After thorough analysis by the brain trust, BOYSDROOLGIRLSRULE comes out as the top selection. Could dominate this group of horses, just look at the TrackMaster Speed Rating - 82 - from her most recent outing. One of the most compelling win statistics with this driver/conditioner make this mare dangerous. The panel of smart guys has Hall on its list of drivers who are winning a lot most recently. Last 30 days win percent is fantastic. WINTER STAR - Take a look at this race horse's avg speed number of 86 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a competitive play. The 87 average class rating may give this mare a distinct advantage in the pack. DE FRAIN - Paver's percentages say this trainer can score off a layoff.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 3:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$3500 - N/W $260 P/S L/6-7 OR P/S IN 2014 $5000 P/C L/S AE: N/W 5 PM LT AE: $5000 CLM W/A J TAGGART JR 3 OVER 5 B ALDRICH JR 4 OVER 6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 CATMAN DUDE 3/1


# 3 MY MAN BEN 7/2


# 6 MAJESTIC TROT 5/2

All signs point to CATMAN DUDE for the pick. Worth considering in this event if only for the very good speed fig achieved in the most recent race. This trainer, and the driver Aldrich, go together like The Smothers Brothers. Their results together are great. This standardbred will be greatly helped with Aldrich steering. 25 percent winners this last month. MY MAN BEN - Should be in the hunt again for this one, looking to increase that already high lifetime winning rate. Outstanding in the money percent for Strong and this nice horse. A really strong probability to get the score. MAJESTIC TROT - Has very nice speed ratings and positively has to be thought of for a wager in here. Achieved a 78 TrackMaster Speed Rating last out. A duplicate effort here should get the top prize in this contest.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12900 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $6,500, ALLOWED 1 LB.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 PLEASANT RUN 4/1


# 5 DA BIG DAWG 7/2


# 1A GUNG HO 8/1

My pick for this event is PLEASANT RUN. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 87. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me think about this gelding. Is a solid choice - given the 90 speed fig from his most recent race. DA BIG DAWG - Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 88 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this group of horses. With a nice class figure average of 98, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 MAXWELL 2/1


# 6 LATE START 3/1


# 3 TOOMUCHINFORMATION 5/1

MAXWELL is my choice. Should be given a chance in this contest if only for the formidable speed rating recorded in the last contest. Perkins and McCarthy have won 18 percent of their races giving this racer a strong chance. LATE START - Will probably go to the front end and may never look back. Is a solid contender - given the 80 speed figure from his most recent race. TOOMUCHINFORMATION - Trainer boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface. Has to be given a shot in this competition if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Fig put up in the last race.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #3 - Post: 1:18pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 FURYOFTHENORSEMEN (ML=3/1)
#5 AMERICAN SOLDIER (ML=2/1)


FURYOFTHENORSEMEN - As long as Arroyo keeps this horse off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a winner. This colt surprised everybody by running third Oct 11th. Have to make this colt a contender; he comes off a sharp effort on October 11th. AMERICAN SOLDIER - The jockey/trainer tandem of Ortiz and Dutrow has a strong ROI together. The addition of Lasix might make this horse wake up today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MADROOS (ML=5/2), #3 KENNESAW PRIDE (ML=6/1), #1 SARATOGA WILDCAT (ML=6/1),

MADROOS - Doesn't look to be worth 5/2 this time out. Pass on him this time. KENNESAW PRIDE - No wager value on this horse at the probable odds of 6/1. SARATOGA WILDCAT - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing ability on October 11th.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FURYOFTHENORSEMEN - Klesaris is making good money with this horse. Tops in earnings per start.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 FURYOFTHENORSEMEN to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
2 with 5 with [1,3,6] Total Cost: $3
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 JUST FOR ME (ML=4/1)


JUST FOR ME - When this jockey and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Castillo and Vega have been great together. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the form to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BIG THIEF (ML=5/2), #7 BENNIE LUKE (ML=3/1), #8 ECHO LIBRA (ML=9/2),

BIG THIEF - This horse hasn't been close to the winner at the finish recently. This gelding recorded a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race. BENNIE LUKE - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple months in a short distance clash to be worth the chance at short odds in a sprint. ECHO LIBRA - Not probable for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint clash.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 JUST FOR ME is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #1 - AQUEDUCT - 12:20 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT MAIDEN FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $16,000.00 CLAIMING $23,000.00 PURSE

#2 ALICE AND TRIXIE
#7 HOT ON ICE
#3 BUILT IN A DAY
#5 WARM FRONT

#2 ALICE AND TRIXIE is the overall speed leader in this maiden filed sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, takes a BIG class drop (-17) which should negate the "ring rust" from a long layoff since her last start. She's produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in four of her last five "adventures," including a show finish facing better company (+16) in her 2nd race back. #7 HOT ON ICE also drops in class (-5), and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish facing better company in her last start.
 
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Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/10 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: UPFRONTLUCKYCAROL (9th)

Spot Play: STAR RUFFNREADY (5th)


Race 1

(8) MEADOW SEELSTER self destructed last week in the Autumn Final, but should appreciate this softer group. (2) ETERNAL QUEST finally draws well in his third career start and is poised for a big effort. (7) JAYPORT ALL MUSCLE has hit the board in each of his last two and is a good option for the triactor.

Race 2

(2) DAZZLE N DELIGHT has been a consistent threat in this class and just missed last week, by a nose. (5) JABAS LUCK has been at her best as of late and returns to this circuit. She draws inside and offers excellent gate-speed. (7) SHANGHAI MIMI was a winner last week at London, comes from the Puddy barn and gets McNair aboard.

Race 3

(5) VANCE BAYAMA was a winner in his latest by over four lengths. He draws well once again and remains at this level. (2) AMERICAN ISLAND comes from the Moreau barn, moves onto this circuit and is capable of dropping multiple seconds. He's versatile and has a good record this season. (3) ARRIVED LATE comes from the Johnson barn and has been knocking on the door as of late.

Race 4

(2) TURBO MACH might offer a price in his career debut, but qualified nicely and appears to have some upside in this wide-open tilt. (1) NINETYMILE HANOVER draws the rail and has hit the board in three of his last four. (3) TYMAL PRONTO was a game second two back and shows back-to-back miles in 1:54.

Race 5

(2) STAR RUFFNREADY is a price option in this dash as he ships in and gets Zeron aboard. He has loads of back class and races in this bottom condition. (5) STRONG HOPE suffered a tough trip last week, but draws well in here. (6) OUR MOJO finished third last week after utilizing his gate-speed and is rounding into form in his third start off the bench.

Race 6

(1) TOSCA draws inside this week after finishing second by a neck last start. (4) ILLSEEUINCOURT closed well last week and displayed the speed needed. (7) BODY TALK closed to finish third last week from a post 10 start. She comes from a top barn and will offer a low price once again.

Race 7

(9) PIERAZ is a price option with Jamieson back aboard in this bottom class. He has the speed and comes from a high percentage barn. (10) NOBESTBFOR has hit the board in two of his last three and comes from the Baillargeon barn. (8) WHIPPET GOOD has nearly $1 million worth of back class and gets Hudon aboard this week.

Race 8

(8) SI SEMALU has posted back-to-back wins at this level and appears to be the horse to beat. (6) JAC SPADE finished a game second last week in this class and gets Christoforou back aboard. (7) RAVE ON is the picture of consistency at this level and is a good option for the triactor.

Race 9

(4) UPFRONTLUCKYCAROL was a game second last week and has been racing at her best for trainer Maxwell. (7) HER NAME IS LOLA drops in class, shows the speed and may offer a fair price. She's capable of a bounce back effort and has five wins this season. (5) SMARTY PANTS doesn't like to win, but is a logical option for the traictor.

Race 10

(8) KIKISKISSINKOUSIN was an open length winner last week in this class and has won four of her last five. (2) BEST RISQUE draws inside, comes from the Fellows barn and has been a consistent top threat at this level. (7) A REAL COMMITMENT suffered a tough trip last week in this class, but draws better tonight and has a terrific overall record this season.
 
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Northfield: Monday 11/10 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,2,5,9 / 8 / 5,9 / 1,2,3,4 = $32


Best Bet: RICKY BLUE EYES (6th)

Spot Play: MISS LULU BELLE (3rd)


Race 1

(4) ACTION-EAR-TO-EAR pacing bred gelding made a break last out from the worst post but is a threat if he stays trotting. (8) DETROIT RAPPER has been on a roll in his last few but needs to find a way into the race; top driver's choice. (2) BROADWAY BOUND is capable of better and will offer a big price.

Race 2

(3) ON THE GREEN gelding makes his second start in a new barn and could show some improvement. (4) R MASTER SCOTT has been very competitive at this level; threat. (1) SNUFF BOX gets the best post and drops in class.

Race 3

(6) MISS LULU BELLE fits with this group and always offers a nice price. (3) ERICKSKARRI drops down a level and owns some back class. (2) SON OFA SPUR has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 4

(4) CHANG DYNASTY gets a better post and has some excuses in his last few. (9) DARTH QUAIDER has burned cash in his last few but is one of few who's shown a good burst of speed lately. (1) WESTERN KISSED owns only one win on the year; use underneath.

Race 5

(5) IMJUSTPINETANKU mare was the top driver's choice and has raced better on the front; fires early. (6) CABO bumps up in class off a victory but finds a suspect bunch. (2) CALLING A VICTORY got a win last out down in class but needs more; use caution.

Race 6

(1) RICKY BLUE EYES pacer has some talent and has been facing much better. (3) LIVELIKEURDYING gets sent out for connections always capable of popping off big miles; threat. (2) ALLAMERICA N JUNIOR has been competitive at this level but is best used underneath.

Race 7

(1) IMA NUISANCE gets the best post off an impressive win at this level. (7) TRUE TO MACH gelding pacer is an enigma as he would have blown the doors off this field earlier in the year. (5) VERTIGO HANOVER shows a decent burst of speed and keeps a top driver.

Race 8

(2) POWER ROCK well bred gelding could be tough to beat with an easy lead. (5) WINBAK DIMENSIONS has been sharp recently and just missed to a game winner last out. (1) MONEY TO BURN takes a huge jump in class; use underneath.

Race 9

(8) VICTORY IS COMING mare is better than the field with an even playing field; fires early. (5) ZORGWIJK HEAVENLY is one of few horses with a win at the level. (1) MARY'S DARVIN gelding is a slow starter but should be closer turning for home.

Race 10

(5) ROADSIDE DELIGHT was the top driver's choice and will be on an early speed mission. (9) BETTOR'S CHOICE just missed at a price last out but needs a good setup. (3) MYBROTHERGEORGE came up empty last effort but was sharp the start prior.

Race 11

(3) ALLAMERICAN PEWTER bumps up in class off a dominating effort. If the pacer races back to that he makes it two straight. (2) CHEYENNE MOISHE should be in a much better spot turning for home; threat. (1) EDDIE SWEAT had some tough racing luck last out but should be in line for a much better trip.

Race 12

(5) ONHISHONOR HANOVER just missed at this level a few starts ago; big chance. (3) HALLIN drops down off of a nice effort just missing to a better field. (4) BOLERO ANDREW dropped and popped last out but will need more.

Race 13

In a wide open and evenly matched race (4) TEST OF WILL has been on quite a roll and drops in class. (3) QUIK GROOM the barn has been popping off some big miles from time to time; threat. (1) BABY BUBBY didn't miss by much last out against similar.

Race 14

(6) NO SHENANIGANS has crushed his competition at this level in three straight; short price. (1) ROMAN ROCKS was no match last out for the top choice but looks to be a prime spot for a piece. (9) FREDSABULLDOG hits the board a lot; use underneath.

Race 15

(1) BETTOR WIN picks up a top driver and is capable. (9) JUDE HALL owns a big burst of speed when timed right and adds lasix for the second time. (3) OSBORNE'S YANKEE should be closer turning for home in a wide open race.
 
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Yonkers: Monday 11/10 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 330 - 962 / $1743.60 BEST BETS: 54 - 79 / $175.70

Best Bet: BEST SAID (12th)

Spot Play: PLAY FAIR (8th)


Race 1

(1) OYSTER BAY drops, draws better and should control this from start to finish. (2) KID COURAGEOUS A got roughed up last week; chance for a smoother trip tonight, perhaps even from the pocket. (3) AMASA AL isn't much but he may be able to secure a piece from this spot.

Race 2

(6) MUSCLESPRINCTONIAN looks like an underachiever but should have enough ability to beat these; Buter double? (3) MOVEUP finally gets an inside post. (1) MUSCULARITY was far back last week at 1/9 after breaking; obviously we must match the start closely.

Race 3

(7) HOLD ALL BETS must have some physical issues because he's only started seven times in his career but he ships in to the Brainard barn and gets a big driver change to Bartlett. (1) PAIN IN THE GLASS was nowhere last week upon arrival but he draws best tonight. (3) FAIRYTALE PRINCE caught my eye two back with a solid close.

Race 4

(3) DO IT FOR ANNIE was too far back to threaten last week; prior effort from an inside post was solid. (1) NOWERLAND FIREBIRD is a speed threat from the best post. (4) WINWOOD SCOUT looks next best in a weak field.

Race 5

(2) SIR KENSINGTON was well placed last week coming to the half but made a break. Another chance. (7) ENDURO HANOVER gets a big driver upgrade to Bartlett. (4) SING OUT has some back class for Lachance and he qualified nicely.

Race 6

(3) H HALL was used a bit harder than I thought he would be last week and he weakened late; I'm staying on board for another try. (1) LEGAL LITIGATOR has loads of speed but he hasn't been able to sustain it recently. (5) GREYSTONE CASH is classy and has maintained his form for an extended period of time; when does he cycle downward?

Race 7

(3) MARKUP HANOVER made only his first start of the season last out and he can build off that effort. (6) TERRACINA AS was uninvolved last week; capable of better. (4) MY INSPIRATION is a filly from Smedshammer that has some stakes experience.

Race 8

(1) PLAY FAIR is another classy Lachance trotter that could take these the distance from his inside starting spot. (4) DECK THE HALLS broke leaving last out; threat if he stays flat tonight. (7) ONE MORE KID is another in here that could be forwardly placed.

Race 9

(2) GYMOKEE JERRY has raced well in all his recent starts and he looms the one to beat tonight. (3) CARRACCI HANOVER is a new addition to the Lachance barn; does he need a start? (4) WELL TO DO can save ground and hold for a share.

Race 10

(2) MACK'S GOLD BAND jogged last week versus lesser with Merton in the bike; sharp sort can repeat. (3) STORMONT LANCELOT may draw off by 10 lengths, or may break and be far back; your call. (1) WELL CONNECTED KID was a solid winner three back at this level.

Race 11

(4) SENTRY closed well in his last two races; he has a chance to run down the speed here with a smooth trip. (2) SUN OF A VICTORY has placed just behind the streaking Cocotier in his last three. (3) VALLEY GLIDER showed good speed but couldn't last in his latest effort.

Race 12

(2) BEST SAID finally returned to the win column last week with a solid effort and he gets a free ride in this class; repeats. (4) UF ROCKIN DRAGON was aggressively handled in last and did hold for a board spot. (1) SHADOWBRIAND draws best upon arrival for sharp connections.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Hot On Ice, 7-2
(6th) Volastic, 6-1

Finger Lakes (2nd) Speedy Getaway, 4-1
(9th) Trumpet Man, 8-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Touch of Silver, 7-2
(5th) Brite Sabbeth, 4-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Bennie Luke, 3-1
(7th) Jediscreto, 9-2


Turf Paradise (3rd) My Rainbow Bridge, 4-1
(5th) Genuine Cowboy, 7-2
 
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'Monday Nighter'

Carolina Panthers faltering recently have gone four straight games without a win (0-3-1 SU) including a 28-10 home loss to the Saints last time out in which QB Newton had one of his worst games completing just 10-of-28 passes for 151 yards, no majors and 1 interception. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Eagles are going in the opposite direction winning three or it's last four after beating Texans 31-21 in Houston last Sunday. Eagles losing QB Nick Noles to injury last week have QB Mark Sanchez taking snaps in this one. Sanchez hit 15-of-22 passes for 202 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int after replacing Noles. It's not difficult making a case for streaking Eagles over slumping Panthers. However, if history is any indication you bet the Eagles at some risk. Eagles have failed to cash in 6-of-8 when laying 7 to 10 points, Panthers have cashed three straight as underdogs in the same range. A couple of final betting nugget. Newton likes the Monday night lights, as he's 2-0 SU/ATS all-time in Monday Night Football with five touchdown passes, no interceptions and Panthers have responded on the road following a 2 TD loss the previous effort posting a 4-1 ATS mark.
 

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