Monday 09/21/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[WINNERS_ONLY]

FREE Monday Play from Jeff Saad.
Red Sox at Royals. The hard to hit knuckler Tim Wakefield is back on the hill, and he catches a break facing a weak Kansas City offense. The Royals go with lefty Lenny DiNardo, who used to play for Boston. He has improved his control and is a southpaw, whom the Red Sox have struggled to hit this season. Plus, Boston has a lights out bullpen, so do not look for a lot of scoring.
Play the Red Sox/Royals UNDER the total.

 

[dfresh1239]

John Fina has a guaranteed play tonight on the colts miami game.
angle is 11-0...this is what we need.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

The Yankees are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. the Angels and they are 1-4 vs. the Angels with Andy Pettitte on the mound. New York is 2-5 vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The Angels are 40-19 their last 59 games vs. lefty starters and they are 6-1 their last 7 home games. Los Angeles is 40-19 their last 59 games off a win and they are 7-2 in the last 9 home starts made by Joe Saunders. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MATT FARGO

St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

Getting value in baseball this time of year with playoff bound teams is rare but we definitely get that tonight with the Cardinals. Lines are dictated by starting pitching and that is the case here yet we catch a team that is 16.5 games ahead of the opposing team in a huge underdog role. St. Louis currently has the smallest magic number in baseball at four and hitting the road is no issue to push that down even more. The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 road games and a solid 12-3 in their last 15 games following a loss, one that came last night in extra innings against the Cubs. Houston is a sizable favorite despite losing seven straight games. The Astros have been up and down all season long and right now the offense is struggling, averaging only 2.1 rpg during this recent seven game skid. They turn to Wandy Rodriguez tonight and he has been the most consistent pitcher in their rotation this season. He has been solid overall and especially at home where he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts with Houston going 12-2 in those games. This is where we get value though. Despite allowing one run or less in seven of his last 10 starts overall, Houston is just 4-6 in those games. He has a 3.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts in his career against the Cardinals but is just 3-8 and Houston is 2-5 in his last seven starts against St. Louis. As we turn to the other side, the Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the hill and he has been the exact opposite of Rodriguez. He is 0-5 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in eight road starts with the Cardinals going 0-8 in those games. Again, this is where the value comes in. He pitched good enough to win in Houston in his lone start at Minute Maid Park this season where he allowed three runs in seven innings in a 3-2 loss. In his last eight starts against the Astros, all have been quality outings as he has posted a 2.60 ERA over that span. We get a great number with the much better team and we will take advantage tonight. 3* St. Louis Cardinals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Take San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5

Barry Zito has reached double-digit victories for the ninth consecutive season. He has posted the third-best ERA in the majors over the last two months (2.36). Doug Davis on the hill for Arizona has the third lowest run support average in the majors (3.67). Giants have to be pretty depressed right now. The DBacks are just plain depressing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LARRY NESS

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago entered this season off back-to-back NL Central titles and the Brewers were coming off a year in which they had captured the NL's wild card spot, ending a playoff drought which had gone back to 1982. Neither team is headed to the postseason, although both teams have a chance to clinch a third straight winning season. The Cubs haven’t accomplished that feat since a six-year winning run from 1967-72 and the Brewers have only done it once (from 1978-1983). Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 5.29 ERA) gets the call for the Cubs but is making his first start since August 20. The left-hander is taking Rich Harden's spot in the rotation and is 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in four starts (team is 2-2) since being acquired in a trade with Pittsburgh on July 30. Gorzelanny lost both outings at Miller Park last season while with the Pirates, posting a 12.54 ERA. He's 3-3 with a 4.92 ERA in nine lifetime starts against Milwaukee (his teams are 4-5). The Brewers will counter with Braden Looper (13-6, 4.89) who beat the Cubs in his previous start Wednesday night at Wrigley Field (despite allowing five runs), to set a career high for victories. Looper is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in three matchups this season against Chicago (team is 3-0) and 4-4 with a 2.91 ERA in 11 career starts (teams are 5-6). Looper is underrated and the Brewers come in on a five-game winning streak (have won eight of 10) while the Cubs are 32-42 on the road this year, averaging just 3.88 RPG. Take the Brewers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Under

The Astros, who are averaging only 2.1 runs per game over their last seven, have seen three straight games (and six of their last eight) stay below the total. The Cardinals, averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last seven, saw last night's game finish above the number. However, they've still seen the UNDER go 4-1 their last five. This has the potential to be another low-scoring affair.

Wandy Rodriguez comes in with a stellar 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts. Over that stretch he has 21 K's and four walks. All three games stayed below the total. Rodriguez has always been tough at home. This season, he's been downright dominant. In 14 road starts, he's gone 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.979 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a profitable 10-4 in those games. It should also be noted that Rodriguez has allowed one run in three straight starts vs. the Cardinals with the most recent of those two games finishing with scores of 3-1 and 1-0.

Lohse admittedly hasn't been nearly as good as Rodriguez. In fact, his numbers have been rather ugly. However, like Rodriguez, he's had success vs. today's opponent. In 10 starts vs. the Astros, he's gone 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. In fact, he allowed three earned runs or less in nine of those 10 starts and just four in the other one. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 5-0-1 in the last six of those. Consider the UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OddsInsight
Bob Wingerter
Spread Pick
Miami Dolphins PLUS 3
Pick Write-Up

Last week's suspect showing in the Georgia Dome has given some ammunition to those who believe the Dolphins were a one-year wonder and a product of a soft last-place schedule. While that may turn out to be the case, there's growing evidence that the Colts aren't the dynasty they once were either, and a two- point home victory over a Jacksonville team with virtually no threat of a passing game lends a bit of support to that argument. Indianapolis could have trouble matching the Dolphins' physicality on offense, while Miami's defense is good enough to prevent Manning, who has fewer playmakers to work with than in years past and is standing behind a shaky offensive line, from going wild. If the Dolphins do a better job of protecting the football than in the opener, they should have a reasonable chance of quieting their skeptics with a notable win over a name opponent.
TAKE MIAMI PLUS HERE.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Don Stark Sports
MLB MoneyLine Pick
Los Angeles Angels -115
Pick Write-Up

With the final home series of the season against their arch-rival Boston Red Sox on tap, the Yankees would much rather be playing anywhere but at the LA Angels. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 9 at Anaheim, including a 3-game series loss there earlier this year. To make matters worse, lefty Andy Pettitte takes the mound for the Yankees and Pettitte hasn't notched a win against the Angels for over 2 years. Go with the home team Angels over the Yankees on Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

The Under is now 15-6-1 in the last 22 head to head meetings between the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics, including 10-4-1 this season with 11 of those games failing to exceed nine total runs combined.

We see no reason why tonight should be any different. The Rangers have basically fallen out of the wild card because of their inability to hit, totally changing their personality from the great hitting, poor pitching teams of the recent past. This 2009 version of the offense is averaging an anorexic 2.90 runs per game over the last 10 games with a team batting average of just .229 overall.

Things should not change tonight vs. Edgar Gonzalez and a red-hot Oakland bullpen. Gonzalez has proven to be serviceable in his two September starts, albeit in limited innings. He faced these Rangers last Tuesday and limited them to one run and four hits in four innings. This came on the heels of his first September start where he allowed one run and three hits in five innings vs. Kansas City, and once he is lifted, the Athletics bullpen has a great 1.90 ERA the last 10 games.

Now Texas starter Kevin Millwood has been hit hard lately, but the veteran still has a nice 3.94 ERA on the season and the Athletics should be the perfect remedy for him to get back on track. This is because he has now allowed two earned runs or less in each of his five starts vs. Oakland since the beginning of last season, with two of those starts coming this year.

Finally, Texas has the best Under record in the Major Leagues at 90-50-8, 64.3 percent, and given the recent head-to-head history here and the spacious dimensions of McAfee Coliseum, we look for that amazing Under pattern to continue.

Pick: Rangers/Athletics Under 9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Chicago at Milwaukee

The Cubs have decided to skip Rich Harden and insert lefthanded veteran Tom Gorzelanny into the rotation. Harden was roughed up by the Brewers in his last start, giving up five runs on five hits and three walks over three innings. This will be Gorzelanny's fifth start with the Cubs. Although Gorzelanny has a winning record at 2-1 in nine appearances since joining Chicago on July 30, he also has an unsightly 4.74 ERA during that time. He just faced the Brewers in a relief role on September 17 at home, and did not fare very well, allowing two earned runs in less than an inning of mop-up work. The Brew-Crew will counter with righthander Braden Looper. Looper struggled to get through the fifth inning at Wrigley Field on Wednesday but managed to win his 13th game, a new career high after notching 12 wins in each of the previous two seasons as a starter. But many visiting starters struggle at Chicago's home park, so the fact that he was able to reach that career milestone at one of the toughest places to pitch no doubt makes it all the more special. Plus, Looper had to work through some discomfort, the result of a batting practice line drive that struck him square in the back the previous afternoon and caused his back to tighten in the middle innings of his outing against the Cubs.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Texas Rangers

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Texas Rangers as they face Oakland set to start at 10:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 72-37 making 34.5 units since 1997. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher posting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Texas is a solid 9-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. Texas is a solid 20-9 (+13.8 Units) against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. Take Texas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Frank Jordan

St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: St Louis Cardinals

Wandy Rodriguez does have 13 wins for Houston, but he also has 10 losses which means with an era of 2.77 he isn't getting the run support. Wandy is 1-3 in his last 5 starts and in those losses he lost 3-1, 4-3, and 1-0 that 1-0 is to St. Louis. Look for Pujols and Holliday to knock in runs early giving Kyle Loshe the breathing room he needs to attack the Astro hitters. Play St. Louis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Yankees at Angels

The playoffs are just about decided in the majors, and this week's Angels, Yankees series in Anaheim just might be a sneak peek of exciting October baseball.

In what could be a preview of this season’s ALCS, the Angels host the Yankees at the Big A in Anaheim. A pair of 13-game winners and veteran lefties, Joe Saunders and Andy Pettite, will go at it tonight. Saunders has come on strong after a slow start going 2-0 in his last three starts with an earned run average of 2.50. Pettite is also 2-0 over the same stretch but has a substantially higher ERA of 3.72.

Mariano Rivera Excluding the bullpen, the two teams are evenly matched. The Angels ranked first in the majors in hitting and second in runs per game while the Yanks are first in scoring and second in hitting. It’s going to be the later innings where the Yanks most notable advantage on the Halos appears.

Mariano Rivera is having another stellar season with an ERA of less than two and 40 saves in 42 opportunities. For most of the season, Brian Fuentes has been closing for the Angels. And while he leads the majors in saves with 43, he’s also an accident waiting to happen. Fuentes is 1-5 with an ERA of 4.26 and he’s blown seven save opportunities including three in the last two weeks. That’s forced Angel skipper Mike Scoscia to use a combination of Kevin Jepsen and Fuentes to close. At his current rate, Fuentes could be become the highest paid set-up man in baseball history.

Both teams could clinch their respective division titles this week. Anaheim has a 7.5 game lead over Texas with 13 games remaining and a magic number of 7 to win the West. New York has a five-game lead over Boston with 15 games remaining leaving the Yankees with a magic number of nine in order to reach the playoffs.

Trends to consider:

* The Over is 6-1 in the previous seven meetings this year.
* The Over is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings.

Tonight’s game has all the earmarks of a shoot-out. The weather is unseasonably hot. That’s going to mean that fly-balls which would usually be just a long out, could go way out, as in leaving the yard.

This is a great spot for an Over play tonight and a “sneak peek” at things to come.

Pick: Yankees-Angels Over 9½

 

[WINNERS_ONLY]

From the #1 NFL Handicapper This Year

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6* Posted in Monday's Service Plays #58

 

[Twisted]

please tell me 3G Sports is on Miami

 

[Coattails]

anyone see hizz honor aka JB Mayer

 

[JDizzle311]

Tony Weston and Valentino have big plays!

 

[JDizzle311]

scratch that.....only need valentino

 

[Roc112]

Wayne Root

Have anybody seen Wayne Root Millionaire play?