SAM CLAYTON
**8-1 with 30 dime selections this year, No. 9 goes tonight!**
30 dime - STL/HOU Under 8.5 (LIST Lohse and Rodriguez)
As some of you know, I've been talking about a big Monday play all weekend long. I sat back Saturday and Sunday and avoided all the football games because I knew that this was my spot. After I saw the opening total that Vegas set for this game, I immediately called up my local, logged into my online account and proceeded to hit it hard with both. And to be perfectly honest, this would probably still be a premium play even at 7.5. Don't get me wrong, I implore you to shop around for 8.5 and buy the hook if you must, but know full well that this line is a gift.
Monday night's NL Central showdown pits two struggling teams (and offenses) against each other in what should be a real slugfest (chuckle). All jokes aside, both the Cardinals and Astros haven't been hitting much of anything lately. In their last seven games, St. Louis is averaging 2.2 runs per game while Houston comes in scoring an even lower 2.14 runs over that span. The Cards haven't scored more than three runs their last five games and the 'Stros have plated four runs or more only twice in seven contests. Translation: These offenses have been pathetic. And with St. Louis having the NL Central all but locked up and Houston having nothing but offseason tee times on the mind, I believe this game is going to be a full scale pitching battle.
Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77) gets the call for the Astros and he has been absolutely sensational all season long. Wandy has some of the sharpest stuff in baseball and his ability to avoid the big inning places him among the elite. He's holding opposing hitters to a .238 clip, he doesn't walk many hitters and his WHIP hovers around 1.20. Most runners that reach base on the southpaw usually don't make it very far and the majority find themselves stranded. Rodriguez also boasts a 8-2 record with an insane 1.58 ERA at Minute Maid Park this season. On the bump for the Redbirds is Kyle Lohse and while he's been hit-or-miss in 2009, his numbers against Houston are very good. The former Twinkie is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in two starts this year against the Astros and it's not like the Houston bats are heating up. If anything, they are ice cold and I see a great opportunity for Lohse to capitalize. Never known for being a great road starter, the right-hander has been surprisingly fair lately as he's allowed more than three runs only once his last four starts on the highway.
Those that have been following my picks know that I'm a strong advocate of important intangibles when I see them. And today I actually have a couple. In games that Wandy Rodriguez has started this season, the under has cashed 20 of 30 times. Delving deeper, 9 of Rodriguez's last 10 starts have gone south of 8.5 runs and he's only posted four overs since June 5 (18 starts). Lohse's O/U numbers are just about even, he's posted 8 unders in 18 starts, although he's the type of pitcher that adapts with the flow of the game. It sounds silly, but if he doesn't get too worked up and doesn't try and throw the ball through the catchers' mitt, he'll be just fine. Rodriguez is going to be the one that sets the pace of the ball game and Lohse will follow right along. I expect a low scoring affair as both starters have downright nasty stuff and they shouldn't have many problems keeping their struggling offensive opponents off the scoreboard.
Play the UNDER.