Monday 06/29/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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JR O'Donnell

Bonus Play

Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins

Florida Marlins -1½+125

"Fla Marlins" big guy Nolasco has been lights out in his last 7 starts vs. the Nationals. The Natsional are the medicine that the Marlins need..Lay the 1.5 runs

FLA MARLINS - 1.5 RUNS = 1 SURE FIRE RED ZONE COMP WINNER
 

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Matt Fargo

Bonus Play

LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers

LAA Angels +120

The Angels have won five straight games and head into this divisional series with the big advantage despite playing it on the road. They are coming off a sweep at Arizona to move to 21-17 on the road and going back further we see Los Angeles with six straight road wins. The Angels are 16-8 in June and because of the stellar month thus far, have taken over first place in the American League West. Kudos to Texas for hanging in there but after a strong start to the season, it has not been a good run. The Rangers are 3-7 over their last 10 games 10-14 in June. Also playing at home has not been a real advantage as Texas is 5-8 in its last 13 home games. Vicente Padilla has been pitching really well of late seven of his last nine starts have been quality outings and this does include a quality performance against the Angels back in May. There are still issues however and one big one comes in his starts at night as he has a 6.03 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in seven starts under the lights with just two of those seven starts being quality outings. Despite that strong outing against the Angels last month, Padilla is 3-2 with a 5.54 ERA in seven starts at home this season and in his career he is 6-3 with a 4.72 ERA in 12 starts against the Angels. Sean O?Sullivan counters for Los Angeles and his big league career has gotten off to a very good start. He allowed just one run in seven innings in his Major League debut at San Francisco and followed that up by allowing three runs in five innings against Colorado. All three of those runs came off two home runs from Troy Tulowitzki. His command should be better this time around following a three-walk performance against the Rockies. The Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a win while the Rangers are 0-5 in their last five games against a team with a winning record. Also, Los Angeles is 11-2 this season against starting pitchers that are averaging 2.75 or more walks per game.

3* Los Angeles Angels
 

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Platinum Plays

Free Selection MLB

PITTSBURGH PIRATES - 105 Over the Chicago Cubs
 

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection

DETROIT w/Porcello -130
 

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Free Selection

Tampa Bay +170 over Toronto
 

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Matt Rivers


Complimentary Selection


For Monday take the coin back with the underdog Nats in Florida.


Sure the Marlins are the better team today on this field and sure they win this game more than they don't. But I really do believe that Washington is better than their pathetic record indicates and at this price with a former Marlin on the bump for us I say why the heck not back this pup!?!?!?


You never fully know what you will ever get from Scott Olsen. Plus the Southpaw has not pitched in the bigs in awhile but with that said the motivation should certainly be there and even with the recent improvements Ricky Nolasco is far from a guy that is all with it.


The Florida righthander was awful in the first few months of the season and at anytime has the potential to implode a bit. I'm not at all saying that when push comes to shove Nolasco is not better than Olsen but there is a potential for him to lose it a bit and guys like Zimmerman, Dunn, Guzman and Johnson are good enough to plate some runs.


Let's not forget how the Marlins started the season 11-1 and have not been the same team since. Florida is a solid squad with Ramirez, Uggla and Cantu leading the way but they are also far from being a club that can really be laying a big price right now behind a mediocre hurler.


This is a winnable game and at this price I'm willing to take my chances on the bad, but better than most believe, Nats.


1♦ Nationals (out of 5♦)
 

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Roy Halladay off DL to open Blue Jays, Rays series in Toronto

By: Willie Bee - 06/29/2009

Interleague play is done as MLB returns to normal this week. First up for the Blue Jays are the Tampa Bay Rays in a key AL East series at Toronto to open lucky Week 13 of the season.
The Doc has given himself a clean bill of health.

Roy Halladay will make his first trip to the mound in 17 days when he takes to the hill at the Rogers Centre tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays ace was forced from his outing on June 12 with a strained groin, and after a few sessions last week, including a 50+ pitch tune-up on Friday, the best pitcher in the major leagues is set to resume yet another All-Star season.

Halladay (10-4, 2.53) will make his return against AL East rivals Tampa Bay and Jeff Niemann (10-4, 4.23) in the first meeting between the two division foes this season. When interleague play started two weeks ago, both the Rays and Jays sat tied in the ALE with 34-31 records. Tampa Bay went 8-4 since then against their NL opposition (Rockies, Mets, Phillies and Marlins), and come in winners of their last five. Toronto was 7-5 in the same stretch (Phillies twice, Nationals and Reds), and come in having dropped three of their last four contests.

The Rays are 4-0 in Niemann's last four starts, providing plenty of run support for the Houston native with Tampa averaging 10 runs per game in those outings. This is his first career start against Toronto. Kevin Millar is the only Blue Jays hitter to have faced him before, going 2-for-5 against the righthander when Millar was with the Orioles in 2008.

Halladay has held Tampa hitters to a .256 overall batting average and .672 OPS. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton area a combined .299 (26-87, 2 HR) vs. the big righthander.

This is his first start vs. Tampa this year. Halladay went 2-3 vs. the Rays in 2008 (1-1 at the Rogers Centre) with a 4.11 ERA, almost a run-&-a-half higher than his season mark of 2.77. The Jays are 6-2 with Halladay on the hill in Toronto this season.

There has been no word on Halladay being on a pitch limit tonight in his first appearance back from the DL. The guy's a workhorse, pure and simple, and has averaged about 108 tosses per start this season, not counting the game in June 12 with he left with the groin injury. That pitch count includes three complete games, one of them a 133-pitch effort on June 2.

One interesting stat on Halladay is the Jays have lost all three games he failed to pick up a decision this season. The reverse is true for Niemann as Tampa has won all four of the starts he ended up with a no-decision this year. If this one is left to the bullpens to decide, I give the Rays the edge in that department.

Toronto opened at -167 at 5Dimes (Tampa +157) with a total of 8½. Being the cheap old bastard that I am, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on Halladay in this one, especially given the way the Rays are playing and the fact Niemann has been pitching on a 'lucky day in their rotation. Instead, given that we have the No. 1 scoring offense in the AL (Tampa, 5.64 rpg) and the No. 5 (Toronto, 5.07 rpg).

I'm going to make a small play on the Over in this one.

The series price has the Jays listed as -140 favorites. I like them at home and with their ace in Game 1, but I don't think they have a -140 edge for the three-game set. The Rays will follow Niemann with two more righthanders, Matt Garza (7-8. 3.61) and James Shields (8-7, 3.41). Countering for the Blue Jays in Games 2 and 3 of the series are righthander Scott Richmond (8-4, 3.68) and lefty Ricky Romero (6-4, 3.20). The series finale on Wednesday is a 1:07 matinee at the Rogers Centre.
 

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Alex Smart

Today’s Free Pick

GAME: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres Jun 29, 2009 10:05PM

SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks

PICK: Houston Astros

REASON FOR PICK: Roy Oswalt (3-4,4.30 ERA) the Astros starting pitcher tonight against the San Diego Padres is in top form at the moment as is evident by allowing one earned run in three of his L/5 starts. The veteran righty is also 9-2 along with a 2.87 ERA in 14 career outings vs the Padres and is 2-1 with a stable 3.09 ERA in four career starts at PETCO Park a notorious pitchers haven. The Astros have won 10 of Oswalts last 11 starts vs a NL West division team , winning SU by 3.3 RPG, and once again look like good bets. Meanwhile, the Fathers will return fire with the inconsistent Josh Greer (1-2, 5.86 ERA) who coincidently was bombed by the Astros for 7 runs the last time he faced them back in May. It must be noted that the Astros are 13-4 against a NL starting pitcher like Greer with an ERA of between 5.20 to 5.70. The Padres are 1-7 in Geers last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Hosuton has won 5 straight meetings in this series.

Play on the Houston Astros
 

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
By Covers

Streaking

Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays)

Halladay might have the most popular groin in all of Canada.

The Blue Jay’s ace lasted just three innings, in which he yielded only one run, in his last start on June 12 before being lifted because of tightness in his groin. But after an extended bullpen session Friday, the right-hander appears ready to step back into his role as the team’s ace.

Halladay (10-1, 2.52 ERA) has been great this month, 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and went the distance in his two starts prior to his early exit against the Marlins. He will look to regain his form Monday against the Rays.

"Day in and day out, everybody that gets on first base says he's the best," Toronto first baseman Lyle Overbay told the Associated Press. "The Yankees, the Red Sox, they're like 'It's not fair.' I'm glad I'm on his side, not the other side."

Nick Blackburn (Minnesota Twins)

Let us introduce you to the best pitcher you don’t know about.

Blackburn (6-3, 3.11 ERA) isn’t spectacular or flashy, but he has been the model of consistency for the Twins this month. The right-hander has lasted at least seven innings in every start in June, including at least eight innings in each of the past three trips to the hill.

This month, he has just a 1-1 record because of poor run support, but has allowed a meager eight earned runs in 32 innings, including giving up just one home run during that span. He should be a huge challenge for the Kansas City lineup.


Slumping

Carl Pavano (Cleveland Indians)

The evil Carl Pavano is starting to reappear.

After going 5-1 with a 3.60 ERA last month, Pavano has gone 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA in June, including lasting a combined 13 1-3 innings in his past three starts in which he has yielded 18 earned runs.

"I thought my ball was a little flat, and when it flattens out like that, those are the kind of games I get -- a lot of contact and a lot of balls down the lines and in the holes," Pavano told the Associated Press.

The 33-year-old hurler must get more movement on his pitches if he is to improve on his record of 6-6 with a 5.80 ERA and have a chance against the White Sox.

Scott Olsen (Washington Nationals)

The left-hander might actually want to go back on the disabled list.

Olsen (1-4, 7.24 ERA) was put on the DL last month following three straight losses in which he failed to last past the fifth inning and yielded 16 runs in just 14 1-3 innings.

But his return Monday won’t be easy.

Olsen will have to beat the Marlins, a team he faced twice this year. His first start lasted just three innings as he allowed eight runs and a pair of home runs. Olsen’s other start against the fish was better in which he allowed three runs in seven innings, but the Nats ultimately lost the game.
 

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Tom Freese

Bonus Play

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Chicago White Sox -103

The White Sox are 17-5 with Gavin Floyd on the mound if he has 4 days of rest and they are 8-3 their last 11 road games. Chicago is 7-3 their last 10 road games vs. righty starters and are 5-2 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. Cleveland is 2-10 their last 12 games and they are 2-8 their last 10 games vs. righty starters. The Indians starter Carl Pavano has allowed 23 runs in his last 13.1 innings of work in his last 3 starts and the Indians are 1-7 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game.

PLAY WHITE SOX (Floyd vs. Pavano)
 

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R&R Totals

Free MLB Over-Under

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Total 9 ov+100
 

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Mikey Sports

Free MLB Play

Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins

Florida Marlins -174
 

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Jeff Alexander

Bonus Play for June 29, 2009

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins -129

While Minnesota has struggled on the road this season, it appears its coming out of it, having won 4 of 6 away from home. I'll back the Twins tonight as they put the better starter on the hill. Blackburn is 6-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.11 and his ERA is down to 2.52 over his last 3 starts. Plus, he is 2-0 against the money line when starting against K.C. with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 0.913 in his career. The Twins are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City and 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The Royals have dropped 5 straight at home and are 0-6 in Hochevar's last 6 starts vs. the American League Central and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Bet the Twins.

1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -129
 

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Big Al McMordie

Bonus Play

Vicente Padilla has been solid of late and over his career vs. the Angels. Take the Texas Rangers at home on Monday when they begin an important three-game set against the Halos.
Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Texas Rangers at home in Arlington over the Los Angeles Angels in a crucial AL West contest.

Interleague play is over and the Rangers are probably quite pleased about that. Not that they played that badly in the games vs. the National League (they went .500 during the 18 interleague contests this season), but they definitely didn't want to see their chief rival in the division – and tonight's foe – have any more success at the expense of the NL.

The Angels simply killed their opposition during interleague play this season, going a league-best 14-4 and pulling into first place in the race for the AL West title in the process. So this series is huge as we head towards the All-Star break two weeks from now, and the Rangers get to start out with their hottest starter of late, veteran righthander Vicente Padilla.

The one-time Phillie is not only the hottest Ranger pitcher, but he's arguably been one of the best in the AL over his past four starts dating back to June 7, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA. Padilla isn't a strikeout pitcher as his 40 Ks in just over 78 innings will attest, but he's a smart veteran who relies on changing speeds and picking batters apart.

He's done well in his career against the Angels, going 6-3 in 12 lifetime starts against them, including a big win on May 16 at this same ballpark when he almost went all the way (eight innings). He should step up big again tonight in Arlington.

Free Pick: Rangers -125
 

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Tampa Bay Rays travel to meet Blue Jays
By: Chance Harper - 06/29/2009

Just 3-3 on the current homestand, the Blue Jays need to keep pace in the tough AL East when their three-game set vs. the Rays begins Monday. Aaron Hill leads Toronto on offense, already setting a franchise HR mark for second basemen less than halfway through the season. The Jays will get their ace Roy Halladay back from the DL as well, and they will need all of the hitting and pitching they can muster against Tampa Bay.
Bettors anticipated the American League East was going to be baseball’s most competitive division back in spring training, but no one was prepared for this:

•Boston Red Sox 46-29, .613 (+70 run differential)
•New York Yankees 42-32, .568 (+53)
•Tampa Bay Rays 42-35, .545 (+87)
•Toronto Blue Jays 41-36, .532 (+41)
You can make a strong argument these four clubs are the best overall in the AL. The Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers currently have better records than Tampa Bay and Toronto, but the latter pair is first and fourth, respectively, in run differential. With Boston and New York holding on to the two top spots in the division, bettors get a chance to handicap the other powerhouses in the AL East when the Blue Jays (41-36, +2.72 units) host the Rays (42-35, +1.98 units) for a three-game series beginning on Monday night.

Toronto ace Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.53 ERA) comes off the 15-day disabled list after missing just over two weeks with a strained groin to make his return on Monday night. Halladay suffered the injury in the Jays’ 7-3 loss as -210 home chalk to the Florida Marlins back on June 12, going three innings before leaving the game.

Prior to hitting the DL, Halladay was on fire for backers, with only one start where he allowed more than three runs over his last nine outings. Not that the bump in the road was hurtful for Jays’ bettors’ bankrolls: The Doctor gave up four runs in a complete-game win over the Angels on June 2, striking out a career-high 14 batters as Toronto cashed as -170 favorites on the betting odds board.

Bettors should think twice about taking Halladay and the Jays as -185 moneyline faves for Game 1 (7:07 PM ET), and not just because of the hefty price on Toronto. Rays starter Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.23 ERA) is up +6.60 units this season, good for fourth for major league starters this year. Tampa Bay is 10-4 against the moneyline in Niemann’s 14 outings this season, including 3-0 in his last three trips to the hill. Oddsmakers have the Rays as +170 underdogs for the opener, with the total set at 8.5.

The Rays are among the hottest wagers in the game right now, with seven ML victories over their last eight matchups. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep of the Florida Marlins at Tropicana Field, with David Price getting the win in Sunday’s 5-2 victory as -166 faves. B.J Upton was 2-for-4 with a homer for Tampa Bay, which hasn’t had as much success cashing away from home lately. The Rays are only 4-10 in their last 14 contests on the road.

The Jays are one of the most profitable home bets in baseball at +4.99 units (24-16 ML), although they didn’t take too much coin over the weekend. Toronto dropped two of three to the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, blowing a four-run lead to lose Sunday’s series finale 5-4 as -143 chalk. Brian Tallet allowed four earned runs over six innings to take the loss for Toronto, which has played over the listed total in 10 of Halladay’s last 12 starts north of the border.

Tuesday night’s Game 2 (7:07 PM ET) is a battle between the Rays’ Matt Garza (5-5, 3.61 ERA) and the Jays’ Scott Richmond (6-4, 3.68 ERA). Tampa Bay has struggled at the window when Garza takes the ball on the road this season, with only one payday in the righthander’s seven starts away from Tropicana Field. Richmond comes into the game 19th on the starters’ moneylist (+4.48 units), as Toronto is 8-4 ML in his 12 starts this season.

Wednesday’s getaway game (1:07 PM ET) sees James Shields (6-5, 3.41 ERA) toe the rubber for the Rays against surprising Jays lefthander Ricky Romero (5-3, 3.20 ERA). Toronto is 3-0 in Romero’s last three outings, during which he’s put up a 2.14 ERA. Tampa Bay is also a perfect 3-0 against the moneyline in Shields’ last three starts, as the Rays have gone 5-10 O/U in his last 15 trips to the bump.

The series is the first meeting this season between the division rivals. Tampa Bay took last year’s season series 11-7, with Toronto cashing in five of the eight games played at Rogers Centre.
 

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