Race: 11 Win Place Show
1st 1 TALK FOREVER 4.30 3.60 2.70
2nd 8 FIRSTLINE ROYAL 48.40 23.70
3rd 7 SKEETER TODD 14.00
\
How can you pick exotics withthis crap all night lmao .......but I did WARN everyone it would be happening on this crazy card.
Regardless, I had fun and picked up a few $$$ - never a bad thing
sds
Tonights fool around card left us with :
7 races capped - 4 "firsts", 1 "second" and two blanks.
1st 1 TALK FOREVER 4.30 3.60 2.70
2nd 8 FIRSTLINE ROYAL 48.40 23.70
3rd 7 SKEETER TODD 14.00
\
How can you pick exotics withthis crap all night lmao .......but I did WARN everyone it would be happening on this crazy card.
Regardless, I had fun and picked up a few $$$ - never a bad thing
sds
Tonights fool around card left us with :
7 races capped - 4 "firsts", 1 "second" and two blanks.
sds,
One thing I don't understand. How can you pick a horse (a couple of nights ago) and say that you think he should be at least 15-1 when he actually goes off at 5-2 and you still bet on him "hard"? Tonight in the last race, you thought Talk Forever would go off at 5-1 and after winning at 1-1, you still bet on him. How do you justify taking +250 on a line you thought should be +1500 or more and tonight taking +115 on a line you thought would be +500?
If a so-called respected football capper was to come on here before the lines came out and say he handicapped the games and liked the......N.O. Saints + 10 vs. the Indy Colts this week and that he was going to make a bet on N.O. on the money line at +500. After the line came out and N.O. was + 1.5 and they were +115 on the money line, wouldn't he be considered a fool if he still bet on them?
One thing I don't understand. How can you pick a horse (a couple of nights ago) and say that you think he should be at least 15-1 when he actually goes off at 5-2 and you still bet on him "hard"? Tonight in the last race, you thought Talk Forever would go off at 5-1 and after winning at 1-1, you still bet on him. How do you justify taking +250 on a line you thought should be +1500 or more and tonight taking +115 on a line you thought would be +500?
If a so-called respected football capper was to come on here before the lines came out and say he handicapped the games and liked the......N.O. Saints + 10 vs. the Indy Colts this week and that he was going to make a bet on N.O. on the money line at +500. After the line came out and N.O. was + 1.5 and they were +115 on the money line, wouldn't he be considered a fool if he still bet on them?
Pretty simple actually when you understand "How" i have had to bet lately.
I post my picks DURING THE DAY on 90% of plays.
correct? check the times.
I then go down to the local OTB and bet all my plays at that time because the online service has become aggravating to me and I really dislike the "HPI service up here from Woodbine where I have to "key" every bet in with codes on a phonepad.
So unlike yourself, I have to guesstimate where the odds will be at 3 O'clock! IF I was sitting at 1 MTP waiting to seee odds movements, then I would do some things differently - we all haven' t that luxury.
Bottom line - I TRY to pick winners here for people. HOW I PERSONALLY decide to bet is my own thing. I cannot give you comment on the sports analogy you gave as it is not my forte;however, I CAN say that you are missing the point. There are only 2 things I try to do:
Pick the winner.
Do it with some consistency.
I do not try to "fit" some horse into first that I don't think should be there. If you want big odds, then you have a board full of them to pick from.
SECONDLY - Why do people have trouble "hitting" 5-2 hard? What will 5-2 pay? I'll GLADLY lay $100 on a horse going off at those odds who I truly feel is going to win . You don't get those odds in sports betting!
And as for the last race last night. Talk forever SHOULD have been higher odds. The fact that he got bet down is moot. So at that point I was not concerned. I held a "fun" ticket for a horse that would win. I think I am missing the downside. Which ticket do you want to hold "Inside",
a 1-1 ticket for $100 on a horse that wins?
OR
A 5-1 Ticket on a horse that loses?
Like I said, I am not here as a "tutor of betting strategies". Do whatever you want. I simply pick my winners and post them up. If anyone else is having problems with it I can easily stop.
cheers
sds
I post my picks DURING THE DAY on 90% of plays.
correct? check the times.
I then go down to the local OTB and bet all my plays at that time because the online service has become aggravating to me and I really dislike the "HPI service up here from Woodbine where I have to "key" every bet in with codes on a phonepad.
So unlike yourself, I have to guesstimate where the odds will be at 3 O'clock! IF I was sitting at 1 MTP waiting to seee odds movements, then I would do some things differently - we all haven' t that luxury.
Bottom line - I TRY to pick winners here for people. HOW I PERSONALLY decide to bet is my own thing. I cannot give you comment on the sports analogy you gave as it is not my forte;however, I CAN say that you are missing the point. There are only 2 things I try to do:
Pick the winner.
Do it with some consistency.
I do not try to "fit" some horse into first that I don't think should be there. If you want big odds, then you have a board full of them to pick from.
SECONDLY - Why do people have trouble "hitting" 5-2 hard? What will 5-2 pay? I'll GLADLY lay $100 on a horse going off at those odds who I truly feel is going to win . You don't get those odds in sports betting!
And as for the last race last night. Talk forever SHOULD have been higher odds. The fact that he got bet down is moot. So at that point I was not concerned. I held a "fun" ticket for a horse that would win. I think I am missing the downside. Which ticket do you want to hold "Inside",
a 1-1 ticket for $100 on a horse that wins?
OR
A 5-1 Ticket on a horse that loses?
Like I said, I am not here as a "tutor of betting strategies". Do whatever you want. I simply pick my winners and post them up. If anyone else is having problems with it I can easily stop.
cheers
sds
I just got up out of bed ,read "INSDIETHEPYLONS" post and responded.
I just went back and checked the payout on that last race - $4.30 !
YOU consider that a bad return?
Do you have an investment portfolio INSIDE?
There are hundreds of thousands of people who would have blown a donkey to get that for all of 2002!
Again referring to the 15-1 horse that ultimately went off at 5-2.........I am more likely to hit a horse "hard" at 5-2 than at 15-1 - why?
USUALLY a good horse is at 15-1 because someone at the track "knows something" that I am not privy to. Hence my "holdback". BUt if a horse is 5-2 then he is not bet hard, but the respect is still there. Right or wrong, it is what I see.
You recall 2 nights ago - "PutaSmileon" ? I didn't make any fuss about him as a "great longshot horse to bet" - somehow HE went off at 8-1 ! He paid $16.40 I believe. WHether he paid that or $4.00, I saw him as THE horse to beat. Odds don't sway my picking because I do my picking IN THE ABSENCE OF ODDS so that they DON'T influence me.
I see too many guys at tracks watching the tote before they bet........One thing I have to say..........the horses don't know what odds they are at.
I'll leave you with one thought though. Would you be happy to MAKE $100 per day, every day at this? Now with that in mind, COULD you take what I post and bet 2 races and do that? So what is the problem?
This is a confusing place ...the Rx. I would LOVE to have some guy in football give me 8 picks a day - of which 5 or more make me money. Would I give a shit what HE did? NO.
Would I be negative? NO
This is a strange place...........
have fun boys.
sds
[This message was edited by sds on September 24, 2003 at 08:22 AM.]
I just went back and checked the payout on that last race - $4.30 !
YOU consider that a bad return?
Do you have an investment portfolio INSIDE?
There are hundreds of thousands of people who would have blown a donkey to get that for all of 2002!
Again referring to the 15-1 horse that ultimately went off at 5-2.........I am more likely to hit a horse "hard" at 5-2 than at 15-1 - why?
USUALLY a good horse is at 15-1 because someone at the track "knows something" that I am not privy to. Hence my "holdback". BUt if a horse is 5-2 then he is not bet hard, but the respect is still there. Right or wrong, it is what I see.
You recall 2 nights ago - "PutaSmileon" ? I didn't make any fuss about him as a "great longshot horse to bet" - somehow HE went off at 8-1 ! He paid $16.40 I believe. WHether he paid that or $4.00, I saw him as THE horse to beat. Odds don't sway my picking because I do my picking IN THE ABSENCE OF ODDS so that they DON'T influence me.
I see too many guys at tracks watching the tote before they bet........One thing I have to say..........the horses don't know what odds they are at.
I'll leave you with one thought though. Would you be happy to MAKE $100 per day, every day at this? Now with that in mind, COULD you take what I post and bet 2 races and do that? So what is the problem?
This is a confusing place ...the Rx. I would LOVE to have some guy in football give me 8 picks a day - of which 5 or more make me money. Would I give a shit what HE did? NO.
Would I be negative? NO
This is a strange place...........
have fun boys.
sds
[This message was edited by sds on September 24, 2003 at 08:22 AM.]
I tracked down this point as well about the 5-1 "Talk Forever" horse.......
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>This horse has what it takes and am hoping to see 5-1 or better if people are asleep at the wheel.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
After re-reading my words, you will see that I HAD NO IDEA where the odds would be. Further, I FELT that IF the masses were "asleep" as they sometimes are, that we MIGHT get a good price on her. The fact that the price was "Even money" would NOT deter me from taking her. Like I said, who in their right mind passes on a $4.30 "Lock" to try and find a $4 "Place" horse from a pack that cannot be picked from?
I really need your answer to this whole dilemma.
cheers
sds
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>This horse has what it takes and am hoping to see 5-1 or better if people are asleep at the wheel.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
After re-reading my words, you will see that I HAD NO IDEA where the odds would be. Further, I FELT that IF the masses were "asleep" as they sometimes are, that we MIGHT get a good price on her. The fact that the price was "Even money" would NOT deter me from taking her. Like I said, who in their right mind passes on a $4.30 "Lock" to try and find a $4 "Place" horse from a pack that cannot be picked from?
I really need your answer to this whole dilemma.
cheers
sds
Maybe my problem here is that I just cannot understand WHAT it takes to satisfy people.
The gods have smiled and put me on a 72/77 tear, and I have to defend "how I bet the 11th"
Betting is not a perfect science and we all make "reactionary" moves off the cuff - usually leading to our demise. THAT is why I do it this way. In the past, the tote board STOLE too many winning bets from me - I'd change my mind at 1 min to post after seeing my horse was not liked by the masses. Well guess what would happen. 25-1.....NOT betting on him despite that fact he could TEAR UP the field ! lmao .....and ultimately did.
The downside of this appraoch is not knowing the odds at post time. I may THINK a horse will go out at 4-1 and only get 1-1 for him (ticket already purchased!)
Then there is the other side like "PutaSmileon" where I got bigger odds and missed that gift. HAd a ticket but HAD I KNOWN he was going off at 8-1, he would have seen a few hundred more at post.
We all make mistakes.....just some you can't apologize for
The gods have smiled and put me on a 72/77 tear, and I have to defend "how I bet the 11th"
Betting is not a perfect science and we all make "reactionary" moves off the cuff - usually leading to our demise. THAT is why I do it this way. In the past, the tote board STOLE too many winning bets from me - I'd change my mind at 1 min to post after seeing my horse was not liked by the masses. Well guess what would happen. 25-1.....NOT betting on him despite that fact he could TEAR UP the field ! lmao .....and ultimately did.
The downside of this appraoch is not knowing the odds at post time. I may THINK a horse will go out at 4-1 and only get 1-1 for him (ticket already purchased!)
Then there is the other side like "PutaSmileon" where I got bigger odds and missed that gift. HAd a ticket but HAD I KNOWN he was going off at 8-1, he would have seen a few hundred more at post.
We all make mistakes.....just some you can't apologize for
sds wrote
. If anyone else is having problems with it I can easily stop.
Keep posting--Inside the Pylons was either being inquisitive as to your modus operandi or is clueless--he did prompt you to give non harness guys like myself some insight into the game.
The only thing I am confused about is your dissatisfaction with the OJC phonebet. Once you get it down its a breeze!!!
. If anyone else is having problems with it I can easily stop.
Keep posting--Inside the Pylons was either being inquisitive as to your modus operandi or is clueless--he did prompt you to give non harness guys like myself some insight into the game.
The only thing I am confused about is your dissatisfaction with the OJC phonebet. Once you get it down its a breeze!!!
sds
keep up this great contribution to the forum.
Even with a few "observations and critical" comments from other posters. those things are what makes for an interesting forum. and you do not have to respond at all if you dont feel like it.
nobody is questioning your expert skills.
keep up this great contribution to the forum.
Even with a few "observations and critical" comments from other posters. those things are what makes for an interesting forum. and you do not have to respond at all if you dont feel like it.
nobody is questioning your expert skills.
guys,
while not a harness bettor, i've had a fair amount of experience betting horses, and professional sports (in a former life). what inside is getting at is "value" - the concept is equally relevant at the track as it is at the sports book. i learned a long time ago that picking winners is really only half the battle. how to maximize the payout on each winner is an art that most people never really catch on toto grasp. sds, you are a clearly a good handicapper at the harness tracks, and while i do not understand the nuances of harness 'capping, i respect you for that. inside, i believe value is everything, but give the guy a break- he knows how to analyze the races and he's been on fire of late- if he bets early, he's at the mecy of the tote board. however, once the winners stop coming at such a furious rate, value will take on a whole new meaning and it WILL matter that your horse should be 5/1 and goes off at even money.
sds, keep up the good work.
while not a harness bettor, i've had a fair amount of experience betting horses, and professional sports (in a former life). what inside is getting at is "value" - the concept is equally relevant at the track as it is at the sports book. i learned a long time ago that picking winners is really only half the battle. how to maximize the payout on each winner is an art that most people never really catch on toto grasp. sds, you are a clearly a good handicapper at the harness tracks, and while i do not understand the nuances of harness 'capping, i respect you for that. inside, i believe value is everything, but give the guy a break- he knows how to analyze the races and he's been on fire of late- if he bets early, he's at the mecy of the tote board. however, once the winners stop coming at such a furious rate, value will take on a whole new meaning and it WILL matter that your horse should be 5/1 and goes off at even money.
sds, keep up the good work.
sds,
I'm trying to help you. The point I made was to try to get you to understand the step to the next level of the pursuit you are on. Presently, you are a finalist for the biggest gap I have ever seen between the understanding of how to handicap races and the understanding of how to wager on the races. I am trying to bring up points to close that gap for you. Just think about the point I am trying to make for a few minutes instead of reacting as if it is some sort of insult or negative spin on your handicapping. I know it is tough to take advice from a "idiot poster" on this board, but if you knew this "idiot poster", you just might listen. One of these nights, I might come on here and show you how to attack (bet) a Mohawk card and win or lose, maybe you will learn something about value and betting strategy.
I'm trying to help you. The point I made was to try to get you to understand the step to the next level of the pursuit you are on. Presently, you are a finalist for the biggest gap I have ever seen between the understanding of how to handicap races and the understanding of how to wager on the races. I am trying to bring up points to close that gap for you. Just think about the point I am trying to make for a few minutes instead of reacting as if it is some sort of insult or negative spin on your handicapping. I know it is tough to take advice from a "idiot poster" on this board, but if you knew this "idiot poster", you just might listen. One of these nights, I might come on here and show you how to attack (bet) a Mohawk card and win or lose, maybe you will learn something about value and betting strategy.
Inside the Pylons
Dude--the guy has been on a roll giving out tons of selections and your tone has a condescending ring to it.
I have no clue on the jugs and have made some bucks having a few brews and betting his plays from home using my account and watching on TRN.
I suggest you start by breaking down a few races for us and giving us your reasons for betting.
Personally--I have had no luck with the exotics and could use help in that area. i have some interesting exacta play strategies but when it comes to the rest I always seem to f/ck up!!!
I will be posting SoCal sprints when Fairplex ends with my shiny new program designed for one mile ovals in SoCal. I would love to discuss exotic wagering in detail with the 3 or 4 races I will be posting daily.
Dude--the guy has been on a roll giving out tons of selections and your tone has a condescending ring to it.
I have no clue on the jugs and have made some bucks having a few brews and betting his plays from home using my account and watching on TRN.
I suggest you start by breaking down a few races for us and giving us your reasons for betting.
Personally--I have had no luck with the exotics and could use help in that area. i have some interesting exacta play strategies but when it comes to the rest I always seem to f/ck up!!!
I will be posting SoCal sprints when Fairplex ends with my shiny new program designed for one mile ovals in SoCal. I would love to discuss exotic wagering in detail with the 3 or 4 races I will be posting daily.
Come to think of it--I was having a bit of a chinwag with a fellow reprobate about straight versus exotic betting. He told me that there was a study done and except for the pick 6--you are better off sticking to the straight pools.
And even with the pick 6--due to IRS compliance and betting syndicates--it wasn't really worth it for the average schmoe.
And even with the pick 6--due to IRS compliance and betting syndicates--it wasn't really worth it for the average schmoe.
I apprecaite those who stood up for my poisition - thanks.
INSIDE - I understand what you are saying but I must refer to two points.
a) I make my bets very early - 4 or 5 HOURS before post time so sometimes I cannot react to changes. (my fault but that is life)
b) I try to pick WINNERS. That may be a simple thing to do for you. I work from WPS bets 80% of the time and always hope for the value you speak of. More often than not ,my P/S bet is ONLY desidgned to offset a loss on a simultaneos Exotic wager should it lose.
I am VERY MUCH looking forward to you stepping up and showing me how to make real money at the harness game as you put it.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>One of these nights, I might come on here and show you how to attack (bet) a Mohawk card and win or lose, maybe you will learn something about value and betting strategy. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This will NOT be about "win or lose" - it will be ONLY about WIN. My current approach has me making money very consistently. IF you are to teach me something ,please don't let it be how to "drain my bankroll in 5 easy bets". IF however, you can maximize my approach, then I will accept your tutelege with open arms.
As EARLYSPEED pointed out ,your approach here is condescending. I think anyone in my position would see you as a little brazen.
cheers
sds
INSIDE - I understand what you are saying but I must refer to two points.
a) I make my bets very early - 4 or 5 HOURS before post time so sometimes I cannot react to changes. (my fault but that is life)
b) I try to pick WINNERS. That may be a simple thing to do for you. I work from WPS bets 80% of the time and always hope for the value you speak of. More often than not ,my P/S bet is ONLY desidgned to offset a loss on a simultaneos Exotic wager should it lose.
I am VERY MUCH looking forward to you stepping up and showing me how to make real money at the harness game as you put it.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>One of these nights, I might come on here and show you how to attack (bet) a Mohawk card and win or lose, maybe you will learn something about value and betting strategy. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This will NOT be about "win or lose" - it will be ONLY about WIN. My current approach has me making money very consistently. IF you are to teach me something ,please don't let it be how to "drain my bankroll in 5 easy bets". IF however, you can maximize my approach, then I will accept your tutelege with open arms.
As EARLYSPEED pointed out ,your approach here is condescending. I think anyone in my position would see you as a little brazen.
cheers
sds
EARLY: you said the following...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>once the winners stop coming at such a furious rate, value will take on a whole new meaning and it WILL matter that your horse should be 5/1 and goes off at even money.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What you have to also understand is that there is nothing different yesterday than today..or tomorrow. You cannot do this for 2 months straight and call it a "fluke". That said, I am ALWAYS aware of "value; however, I have realized one thing about horse wagering.
* You can't make a good value horse "fit" into a race he is doomed to lose.
* trying to stick a high value horse in for a place /show payout CAN work but more often than not you are screwed.
* A winning ticket with lower value > a losing ticket with higher value.
* MORE people play exotics now than ever before. THAT is why most people lose big $$ at the tracks. Low success frequency with exotics. Now if I can pull the winners for you guys, then you can take that and key it for exactors and Tris. There will be your "value".
cheers
sds
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>once the winners stop coming at such a furious rate, value will take on a whole new meaning and it WILL matter that your horse should be 5/1 and goes off at even money.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What you have to also understand is that there is nothing different yesterday than today..or tomorrow. You cannot do this for 2 months straight and call it a "fluke". That said, I am ALWAYS aware of "value; however, I have realized one thing about horse wagering.
* You can't make a good value horse "fit" into a race he is doomed to lose.
* trying to stick a high value horse in for a place /show payout CAN work but more often than not you are screwed.
* A winning ticket with lower value > a losing ticket with higher value.
* MORE people play exotics now than ever before. THAT is why most people lose big $$ at the tracks. Low success frequency with exotics. Now if I can pull the winners for you guys, then you can take that and key it for exactors and Tris. There will be your "value".
cheers
sds
sds,
I can see this is going to be a useless waste of my time. I was merely trying to get you to focus on improving in an area (wagering) where you are much below your handicapping level.
Contrary to what you want to make this, it is not a competition between us. I think that my making posts about where you need a little help in your scheme should prove that I have something valuable to offer as you are so hung up on this aspect.
I offered to one day to show you how I bet, on a Mohawk card (a track which I do not play but was going to do that merely because it is the track you are familiar with), and you start saying that I "MUST" win or you are a failure nonsense. Wouldn't it be to your advantage to see how someone who claims that wagering is his strength approach a card at your home track, win or lose? I am sorry I ever got involved.
I can see this is going to be a useless waste of my time. I was merely trying to get you to focus on improving in an area (wagering) where you are much below your handicapping level.
Contrary to what you want to make this, it is not a competition between us. I think that my making posts about where you need a little help in your scheme should prove that I have something valuable to offer as you are so hung up on this aspect.
I offered to one day to show you how I bet, on a Mohawk card (a track which I do not play but was going to do that merely because it is the track you are familiar with), and you start saying that I "MUST" win or you are a failure nonsense. Wouldn't it be to your advantage to see how someone who claims that wagering is his strength approach a card at your home track, win or lose? I am sorry I ever got involved.
INSIDE,
This board (Rx) is loaded with guys who ONLY spend their time disrespecting others in some way or another. I have found this site to be rather bad for that however I think it is improving.
That said, it seems that you approach me in a condescending manner & tone ,but when I stand up YOU take offense. All I am stating is that IF you believe that you have something to offer then bring it forward. If it does help me out then I will be quick to thank you.
The flipside of course is UNTIL you show me that you know what you are talking about ,then you are merely another poster who talks the talk. Please do not misconstrue the meaning. I am simply tired of all the guys who blast a board with their "abilities" only to have someone else post their REAL record in the given sport lol Also, What I meant by saying that you need to WIN, is that in order
Feel free to give me your insight and we'll go from there.
cheers
sds
[This message was edited by sds on September 24, 2003 at 06:14 PM.]
This board (Rx) is loaded with guys who ONLY spend their time disrespecting others in some way or another. I have found this site to be rather bad for that however I think it is improving.
That said, it seems that you approach me in a condescending manner & tone ,but when I stand up YOU take offense. All I am stating is that IF you believe that you have something to offer then bring it forward. If it does help me out then I will be quick to thank you.
The flipside of course is UNTIL you show me that you know what you are talking about ,then you are merely another poster who talks the talk. Please do not misconstrue the meaning. I am simply tired of all the guys who blast a board with their "abilities" only to have someone else post their REAL record in the given sport lol Also, What I meant by saying that you need to WIN, is that in order
Feel free to give me your insight and we'll go from there.
cheers
sds
[This message was edited by sds on September 24, 2003 at 06:14 PM.]
sds,
it was me, not EARLY who said, "once the winners stop coming at such a furious rate, value will take on a whole new meaning and it WILL matter that your horse should be 5/1 and goes off at even money." please do not take this wrong way, but your logic, while attempting to be pedantic, isn't exactly on point.
while it is true that a winning ticket with lower value > a losing ticket with higher value, all you're doing is stating the obvious. what is left unsaid is that if you collect all the winning tickets with lower value and all the winning tickets with higher value, you're invariably going to better off consistently wagering on races where you have better value. now, value is NOT an objective term- i've seen 25/1 shots that i believe represented poor value and even money shots that i thought were a steal at that price.
moreover, the quote, "You can't make a good value horse "fit" into a race he is doomed to lose" is illustrative of the fact that you may be defining value in a different way that I look at it. by definition if a horse is doomed to lose a race (whatever doomed means), he is not a good value at ANY price. Value, like everything in life, is relative and it's fundamentally a function of a handicapper's belief in a particular horse's chances of winning a particular race on that particular day. if you believe a horse's true chance of winning a specific race is 1%, he's still not a "value" even if he's 90 to 1 odds on the toteboard.
Lastly, your quote that "Now if I can pull the winners for you guys, then you can take that and key it for exactors and tris. there will be your 'value'." that statement is absurd on its face- keying a winner in the exacta or trifecta or superfecta or pick 3 or pick 6 pool does not automatically lead to "value."
anyway, i'm off my soapbox- i understand where both of you are coming from and you're both right. sds, keep on 'capping and providing us with your knowledge. i do not play the harness races, so am neither competent, qualified, nor interested in criticizing or praising your handicapping analysis or techniques. empirically, you've picked a lot of winners, and at the end of the day, that matters.
it was me, not EARLY who said, "once the winners stop coming at such a furious rate, value will take on a whole new meaning and it WILL matter that your horse should be 5/1 and goes off at even money." please do not take this wrong way, but your logic, while attempting to be pedantic, isn't exactly on point.
while it is true that a winning ticket with lower value > a losing ticket with higher value, all you're doing is stating the obvious. what is left unsaid is that if you collect all the winning tickets with lower value and all the winning tickets with higher value, you're invariably going to better off consistently wagering on races where you have better value. now, value is NOT an objective term- i've seen 25/1 shots that i believe represented poor value and even money shots that i thought were a steal at that price.
moreover, the quote, "You can't make a good value horse "fit" into a race he is doomed to lose" is illustrative of the fact that you may be defining value in a different way that I look at it. by definition if a horse is doomed to lose a race (whatever doomed means), he is not a good value at ANY price. Value, like everything in life, is relative and it's fundamentally a function of a handicapper's belief in a particular horse's chances of winning a particular race on that particular day. if you believe a horse's true chance of winning a specific race is 1%, he's still not a "value" even if he's 90 to 1 odds on the toteboard.
Lastly, your quote that "Now if I can pull the winners for you guys, then you can take that and key it for exactors and tris. there will be your 'value'." that statement is absurd on its face- keying a winner in the exacta or trifecta or superfecta or pick 3 or pick 6 pool does not automatically lead to "value."
anyway, i'm off my soapbox- i understand where both of you are coming from and you're both right. sds, keep on 'capping and providing us with your knowledge. i do not play the harness races, so am neither competent, qualified, nor interested in criticizing or praising your handicapping analysis or techniques. empirically, you've picked a lot of winners, and at the end of the day, that matters.
