0-0 draw in the first leg should provide value for Atletico today at home. Here's why... An away goal at this stage would be catastrophic to Atletico chances of advancing. So my expectation is them to play like they know how to play. I think the 0-0 actually favors Atletico's style here. They are built for Champions League and their head coach is built for 2 legged tournaments like this one. The guy is a tactical genius and in these situations you have to know exactly what you want from your players. No one is better than Simeone at doing that. I expect a better more exciting PSV team in this second leg. The incentive for them is to draw, but PSV had a lot of trouble in the midfield getting the ball to their forwards. They were playing strictly from the wings, and I expect PSV to do a lot of hopeful crosses again today. Atletico has one of the most underrated centre backs in the world, in Diego Godin. He is Atletico's leader on the back end and also has a nack for goal with his headers. The value I see in the -1.5 has to do with PSV just needing one goal to turn this matchup on its head. Usually in that situation we get the home side playing cautious and countering. But, if Atletico scores a goal...everything will change. PSV will be full blown attack, which will leave the counters open the other way for an additional goal.
The best thing about Atletico Madrid is their toughness. This is a blue collar team in Spain and they work for everything they get. They understand this wont be easy, but their experience in this situation along with the best coach left in this tournament, should be enough to see them through sort of convincingly. PSV will have more chances than the first leg due to this game being more open at stages. This is like a middleweight heavy fight. Both teams are great at the same things. Countering, defense, and set pieces.
Atletico Madrid -1.5 -101
Exacto score 3-1 Atletico +1275
Was debating adding the over but the exacto score I like better
GL