Mls 2013

[ExeR]

I've been tailing silently on this forum for a long time, but decided to start doing something usefull. This league isn't popular among cappers, and info is hard to find, but hopefully this will add to the value in a long run.
Did a lot of research, but still not finished (currently working on team stats vs spread and vs o/u odds), will try to share as much as possible along the way.
All bets are same amount (1u i guess), last week went so so, hopefully this will be better:
Portland - Houston Over 2.5 at odds 2.11 Pinnacle
Houston off an impressive win at home, now on the road against Portland. They won 2 straight, but in last 2 years, they never had 3 wins in a row. So this game won't be easy for them by any means. Portland with yet another comeback, but again they fail to achieve a victory, because they allow opponents to score first and early in the game. They will have great motivation to get W at home against one of the better teams in the league.
So let's take a look at this match up:
Portland's weak diffence is one of the main reasons behind their struggle in getting wins. It's been so for the last couple of years: last year they were 3rd from bottom at home, and 2nd on the road. And it's no different this year. They already at bottom of table with 8 goals allowed. Their coach is changing rotation every game, but it doesn't seem to help that much. With players like 20 year old Andrew Baptiste as the corner stone of defence, they won't have much success at this end of the field.
Houston, despite strong play and being number 1 in power ratings this week, have problems of their own. They are consistenly weaker squad on the road. In 2011 they finished second in conference, but had 2-6-9 road record (same as bottom teams). In 2012 they had -12 goal differential and league worst 70% of allowed goals in away games.
I think it's pretty obvious what type of game it will be. Both teams will be looking for victory and will create many cnahces. Sweet opportunity, especially at those odds.

SPORTING KC TO WIN AT ODDS 1.73 Pinnacle
Odds already dropped a little, but I still like the chances of hosts. They were dominant last week and stopped Montreal 4 game win streak, and they are very strong team at home, especially in defense. And if this is not enough, let's take a look at their opponents. DC United started season in poor form. They were prolific offensive team last season, but they struggled this year. Add to that their road game problems. Despite finishing 2nd in conference last year, they had -10 goal difference and very few points. Sporting KC is nemesis team for them last couple of seasons, they lost all 5 meetings, including 1 preseason game this year. So to sum everything up:
One of the top teams at home against weak road team in bad shape with awful head-to-head stats. Choice is obvious in this one.

 

[rolltide]

gl ExeR from Earth. like your first one for sure

 

[ExeR]

gl ExeR from Earth. like your first one for sure

Thanks for support! I will do my best to add some extra winners to ones you post regularly.

 

[ExeR]

Dallas @ Toronto food for thought:
Dallas is on 3 game win streak. I did reasearch of all kind of streaks in last seasons, to see if there are any patterns. 3 wins turning into 4 wins was one of the most consistent trends, it hits around 33-35%. So just from that, you need Dallas win odds to be at 3+, but it's lower now at 2.67.
Type of teams that achieve 4 wins is very different from season to season. In 2011 it was just 2 teams but 2 times for both, last year half of league did it, but once for every team. There is no real angle here, but there is one in how streaks end. Almost all 4 or more win streaks ended in away games, usually vs strong home side:
LAG @ NYRB
RSL @ POR
RSL @ DC
List goes on, but 10 of 13 streaks ended in away games.
So it's one thing that will be usefull to remember in future. Not knowing this already cost me in SKC - Montreal game. So, there is a logic in staying away from backing hot team to win on the road, cause this is where streaks usually end. It's probably true for 3 game streaks too.
So this is another reason to believe, that Dallas won't achieve 3 points.
One more reason is that this team seems strange to me. They are very hard to figure out. In a draw heavy 2011 year, they had fewest draws. Last year, when draws happened rarely, they had more than any other team with 12. In great start of season, they already showing signs of inconsistency. At Chivas they throw a game with terrible decisions and defense. At NER they used the same mistakes from opponents to get victory in last minutes. The way they are playing is just wrong. With potent offensive players sitting on bench, they usually play 4-2-3-1, with lonely striker, and 2 defensive midfielders. They just kill their potential with this, and it can cost them, especially against weaker teams.
So Dallas chances doesn't look well here, but I have hard time believing in Toronto too. They are much improved team this year and results show that, but they are putting like 2 shots on goal in a game, and it's never a good sign. Still, they are looking better at given odds, and may be worth a shot.
As for losing and draw streaks, I will write about them when they will pop up.

 

[ExeR]

League has been pretty much the same as last season in terms of draws(~25%) and home winners (50+%). So with that in mind, I looked at card to find more home winners. My 2nd favourite after SKC is Columbus:
Columbus win at odds 2.01 Pinnacle
Columbus coming into this game with a solid start to their season. Their play been stable and it's probably sign that they will improve this season from being mediocre, to playoff contention. There are open spots right now, with the way DC and Chicago are playing...
They use same tactic in all kind of games, so they are comfortable with their style and it produces results. So they are already in the season, not trying to find their game or heat up.
Philadelphia is completely different animal. Yet another team with bunch of young players as cornerstone of their defense. Like 4 of 5 guys are under 23, and I can't say they are stars in the making. Their formation changes from game to game, but it bring little to no success. They got beat up bad by unhealthy New York team. They were lucky to lose by one goal. It's really hard to expect anything good from this team, when unexpereinced players are trying to adapt to new way of playing every game. They shown that when they play solid teams they have no chance and allow 2+ goals at least. This is not the team you want to bet in a road game.
They way I see it, it's a great opportunity for Columbus team to earn 3 points. The odds show that they are still under radar, and it's nice opportunity to use it against weak visiting team. This game has the same odds as SJ - Vancouver, but I find it much more one sided in terms of current form and "strength". Over 1.5 goals for Columbus offered and same price, so it's another option for this game.

 

[nojuice9]

Welcome, nice posts. It's always nice to start with a winner. Best of luck!

 

[ExeR]

RSL @ Colorado under 2,5 at odds 1.81 Pinnacle:
Odds are not to good, and when you look at line ups you may think this bet is not too smart, but here are my thoughts:
All head-to-head meetings between this two teams in last couple of years stayed under. They played already this season, and game ended with 1:1 score, and 1 "lucky" goal. Scoring is a big problem for Colorado in my opinion, and I expect they will help to keep this under 2.5 by not scoring at all. RSL is playing good defense on the road, but they struggled with offense. Still I like them better in this match up and they'll probably get some points in this one. But type of game will be underish most of the time and goals won't come easy. Maybe it's just a feeling, but it feels like the right thing to bet in this game.

 

[ExeR]

NYRB pk at odds 2.04 Pinnacle
It's strange to see Chicago as slight favourite here. They have been playing awful. You can't expect them to lose many of their games with 3+ goals allowed, but it's a clear sing of their defensive quality. They lack talent and veteran presence, so don't expect them to suddenly start playing better football. Even their coach believes that they are underdogs and need to flood midfield to stop NYRB. And NY is ok road team too.
Odds for NY are high, cause Henry will start on bench, while Espindola will miss this game. This team has no problem with quality of rotation, and injuries won't cause big trouble. And you can't forget that Chicago also have Duka Alex and Nyarko questionable for this game, with bencher Palladini expected to start in this game.
So there is a big gap in quality of players and current form between these two teams. New York is a very active offensive team, they put up a lot of shots and produce many chances. Last year they were 3rd best team in away goals, so not much hope for weak defensive line of Chicago to stop them. With more people trying to destruct in the middle, they won't have enough offense to produce result for them. Have to go with NYRB in this one.

 

[ExeR]

Portland - Houston Over 2.5 at odds 2.11 Pinnacle L
SPORTING KC TO WIN AT ODDS 1.73 Pinnacle W
Columbus win at odds 2.01 Pinnacle L
RSL @ Colorado under 2,5 at odds 1.81 Pinnacle W
NYRB pk at odds 2.04 Pinnacle
Result for week: 2-3
Another dissapointing week, all bets were definately right, but luck was on the other side. It's always easy to write long story about unluck and all the wrong things that happened at the same time, but why waste time. Odds for next week are available, so time to move on.

 

[ExeR]

Trying to catch value early. Last week missed on better odds in most of the games.
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle
After expected bad perfomance on the road, Houston back at home with their focus on attempt to tie Real Salt Lake's MLS-record unbeaten run (29) when they host the Chicago Fire on April 14. Fans like those records, and players will be aware of it. So with the way they play at home and record in mind, they will definately show up.
Chicago might get a morale boost after their home win against NYRB, but I still doubt their level. All their goals came from nothing, silly mistakes and bad play from defense allowed them to score. But their main problem remains in defense, they still allow ton of chances. Houston is one of the best teams in goalscoring efficiency (30+% of shots on goal end up in the net), so they will be more than happy to have some extra chances. Even if Chicago will play better than in the begining of the season, they still have to face scariest home team with strong motivation. So I just can't expect this game going their way.

 

[ExeR]

Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle
Odds are quite surprising for a struggling home side, but let's look at this matchup:
Seattle coming into this game after nice game in CCL agains Santos Laguna. They created a lot of chances, but failed to capitalize on them. With a desperate need to end their slump, they now have only MLS to worry about and a great opportunity ahead. Home game against New England is as good as it gets. This is a must win for Sounders, they need to boost their confidence, get offense going and finaly make their fans happy. With all that's going on it won't be easy, but maybe their opponents can help:
New England is currently the worst team in MLS, haven't scored in forever. They are also dealing with a "bigger than soccer" issue in the wake of Kevin Alston's leukemia diagnosis. Their road history is terrible (1 win 14 losses 2 ties last season). There are really no reasons to back them in this game.

 

[ExeR]

Philadelphia - Toronto:
Still thinking about this one. I like 2 options, both pretty much same price: Under 2.5 and Phi win.
Home win is pretty obvious, when you look at Toronto road history 14 loses and 3 draws last year, and 0-2 this year. But betting all top favourites of the day can't be the way to go, so have to question hosts here. They are not scary at home (7w 8l 2d last year, 7 wins in 2011 when they were top 3 team in conference), so you can expect them to give away points occasionaly. Maybe I'm overthinking this, but surely you can doubt betting on home win, even if Toronto is in town.
What I really like here is under. All those things I wrote about Phili's D is true, and their coach praising them is just another example. Probably have nothing else to say about their lucky stride, but to call them spine of the team. SKC, NYRB, Columbus all created enough to score at least 3 goals. But this weakness won't be exploited in game against Toronto. Already wrote about their weak offense, and they somehow continue to score goals from nothing. This won't last forever. Their offense is "get the ball to Earnshaw", and there is no real threat behind this. Both teams have very few shots on goal, and with no real pressure on defense, this will stay low scoring most of the time, just because there will be 7-8 shots on goal. Philadelphia already had this kind of game at home, against NER, and it finished 1-0 with 6 shots on goal from both teams. I think this game will be similar and I will prefer to bet under.
Philadelphia Union/Toronto FC 13-April-2013 12:59 PM PST Total Under 2.5 for Game 1.862

 

[ExeR]

Montreal win at odds 2.09 Pinnacle
Odds are too sweet for home side. Montreal played great at home last season and had the same record as top teams (10w 4l 3d). But their road problems were too much to overcome, and with only 2 wins and 12 losses they had the same record as bottom teams. They started season strong and already got 2 road wins, so this will be their area of improvement. At home they definately stay strong and finish with same or better stats. So we can expect 10+ wins in 17 games (59%).
Columbus have been playing well too, but they have little issues here and there, and their road perfomance have been consistently mediocre. They are "average" road team, with 9-10 losses in 17 games. I also like Di Vaio chances to catch Columbus defense on offside trap.
So to me it's simple: Montreal is one of the best teams in the league, strong home side with 60% of games won. Columbus lose 60% of road games against league (not every game is against Montreal or Houston). So chances of MTL to win in this game are much better than ~50% offered by bookies.

 

[rolltide]

Montreal match moved to Sunday. you'll likely have pinnacle cancel the bet and then have to retake it tomorrow

 

[SunDodger]

I hope you are right about the Sounders. The team needs a win badly. Hopefully, they break through and score early to take some pressure off.

Good luck today.



I like the Houston play on Sunday, also.

 

[ExeR]

Like 2 options for the upcoming games:
Colorado @ Chivas:
I still have no feel on Chivas team. But if they stay hot today, would be a great opportunity to risk with them -1 or -1.5. It's more of a Colorado fade for me. Their key for success was some random early goal, and that allowed them to get results and keep their opponents from scoring with more defensive approach. If Chivas scores first, this will be very tough game for Colorado, cause Chivas can definately run and counterattack fast. So for Colorado, offense can easily produce nothing, while their defense and game style will be put under some real pressure. Plus Colorado is not playing well on the road (3w 13l 1d with 35% of goals scored and 60+% of goals allowed). Risky bet on -1 or -0.75 at 2.65 odds is the best thing I can think of for this game.
NYRB @ DC
I like NYRB pk here. I still remember their last game, but hopefully that weak perfomance will help them today. In general, they played that game well, but made a lot of crucial mistakes. Also Chicago had many things go their way, and it helped them to pull it off. The most important thing is that NY came for victory, and they were very capable of achieving it. You want road team with that attitude.
DC will look to get W themselves, so it will be open game with more chances. DC is not playing well, and if NY won't make critical mistakes it will be tough for them to win here.

 

[ExeR]

Montreal win at odds 2.09 Pinnacle L
Odds were the reason behind this and I still think they were good. Even guessed that Di Vaio will catch Columbus D. He scored but was called for non-existent offside. Feels like there was no mistake with this bet, but the choice was not the best one. Under should've been the play and that's my thinking after the whole thing is over:
MTL is still undervalued team, getting very good odds even at home. But this is 2/2 I lost with them, while "the odds were good enough". When you compare games, you can see that this one was quite close, while Seattle and Houston games were very one sided. Yes, they played weaker teams and had worse odds, but still it was 2-3 times better in terms of chances. You can't predict quality (I looked for [goals/shots on goals]% but that's a global one) so have to go with quantity. And that's where MTL can be problem. They are built for result (strict roles, playing on stregths of players, always same formation) not to dominate and score a lot. It's hard to put it in writing, but I have one analogy from basketball so may be this helps. They remind me of Memphis Grizzlies, who will win against the worst opponents by just a few points while the game is never in doubt. And you think that if you play ML you won't ever lose, but if you go with better odds for spread, it won't be easy.
So with that in mind, we add conditions of the field (I don't check that and that's my mistake) and there is much better option with under. The reasons would be: Close game (duels won, shots on goal, crosses are all 50/50) with not a lot of chances (8 shots on goal), quality sides (they missed 2 easy chances, scored 2 from tough situations so realisation was "fair" and score would be the same) and type of team MTL is. So even if MTL to win was a good bet and should'nt be changed, that U2.5 was the one I missed.
Will be interesting to see, how Columbus will play at Chicago next week. They showed different approaches to different situations, but they won against DC on the road in same spot.
Philadelphia Union/Toronto FC Total Under 2.5 for Game 1.862 W
Game went crazy in last minutes, but Toronto's goal is to blame. If it didn't happen, this one would be easy. First half ended with 3 shots on goal. Phily D confirmed my doubts, must be hard to stop offense that consist from 1 man from scoring...
Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle L
Same old story for Seattle, tons of chances but can't score. Next game at Colorado is already a [STRIKE]lose[/STRIKE]bet for me.
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle W
Those odds were a gift, even if this game was a 1-1 draw for some long time. Houston has the best ability to overcome heavily defensive approaches from opponents. Great movement without the ball + teamwork and passing. Can count on them to win and create chances agains some NER type teams, that just have 10 players in the box, and wait to kick the ball on the other side of field to their lonely striker. Next game will be on the road, where they are completely opposite team, against Toronto. It will be interesting to see if they can overcome their woes and play decent game against hosts, who won't mind playing no.2 and give Dynamo opportunity to do what they do best.
Chicago's D is no mistery for me at this point, many consecutive games and same weak level of play. Offense seems to get opportunities, but again mistakes, more mistakes from D and crosses. Nothing really created, nothing coming from center of the field. Will be tough matchup against Columbus, because they probably won't exploit "offside" weakness. Chicago probably feel their game is improving, so they might open it up a little against Crew and chase W. It will make it easier for away team.


As for other games and leans:
Colorado continues their run against my doubts. As does Dallas. Time to stop hating!
But really, Colorado used the same formula again, just as I wrote about it. Penalty (ofcourse not something they created offensively), score first, keep the score level. Although Chivas also had a penalty but missed. Still their play was a great example of why you should doubt them and their hot run. One day they are 3 goals on anybody all new Chivas, next day they are 2 shots on goal worst home team last season Chivas. But Colorado have something to do with that transformation, they were quite good with holding their opponents. Still their run was against struggling or inconsistent teams (Portland that gave away goals, RSL and Chivas in bad shape) and they were always able to score first and play their game. Before that they were team, that barely scores 1, and can't hold anybody without goal (so if opponents scores first, they are dead). Next game against Seattle will be their real test. Sounders always bring offensive pressure and create chances, and will be desperate this time again, so we'll see if they can hold team of this quality and this state of mind. If I'm wrong about Colorado, this game will definately show it.
As for Dallas game it was a missed oportunity to bet under again. Dallas haven't show anything spectacular since I doubted their formation issues. LA was in fade spot after midweek loss, so confidence and fatigue were issues for them. It was written all over it, that it will be run for first goal. The one team that scores, will be very happy to keep it that way and destruct the rest of the game. The game itself was a little different, with red card, 2 missed penalties, but still shots on goal were 2-3, so it's an under type of game. Dallas can benefit from opportunities presented by schedule a lot. Next game is against Vancouver at home.
New York played well and rebounded after dissapointing loss as I expected. DC bounced in first game, and decided to play the same way at home. Just what NYRB needed. They took possesion, created chances, scored first (having Henry in starting 11 helps) and game was pretty much over. Dominating just 1 half was enough. But main thing is that they hold on to the lead, got lucky and haven't allowed DC to score. This plus the win will give them confidence in what they do going forward. So we can expect them to continue to play offensive minded football in away games.
DC with 3 L streak and their perfomance is really weak. They can't even adjust to what happened couple of weeks ago. Got dominated in first game and came up with same in 2nd. Playing against Phili at home seems like their chance, but it may be too much pressure on the team that's bleeding. What I mean by that, is that DC will need to play dominating football, control the game and be number 1 to give Phily problems and exploit their weakness. With their current form, United probably won't be able to do that. In game of chances, they will have disadvantage, cause Phily's offense is really dangerous and heating up while DC is strugling bad. This game needs a little more attention, but I think odds on Phily and their potential to take points here will be very good.
Portland and San Jose game was another no bet no lose for me, cause everybody was on the over. I was not sure about this one, because both teams were focused on D after recent games. I was already typing in lean, but stopped and deleted everything not to look stupid. Odds were so good, strong offence, not good defence, have to be this. It seems like a trap now. But game itself was even worse than expected. With focus on D it will definately be the game with slow start. Both teams more concerned on not allowing goal first, but at the same time both want win. Illogical but good for under. Nothing happening in first is always bad, cause games like that need kickstart. With both teams in illogical state of mind, game only opens up if somebody scores first. If not, they gonna foul and focus on destructing and continue to neutralise each other. Game ended with 5 shots on goal and might've been 0-0 if not for that red card. Next game is a rematch at SJ, and this is what I expect:
SJ haven't lost 2 in a row this season, so they will be expected to bounce back and dominate this home game. I find it hard to believe, because they have consistent flaws in their game. Already questioned their offence, and they continue to dissapoint. Portland created more opportunities in 6 games, than SJ did in 7. You never know when it's going to return, but may be it won't and their offence has been consistently weak this season so you can't trust historical numbers with this team right now. Second and most important, is their possession. They lose possession all the time, and it doesn't matter if they play home/road game. The best they do is to keep it close. But problem is, that Portland is team that thrives on possession advantage. This is the basis of their play style, and it's been successfull for them this season. They only lost against MTL, who are happy with counter attacking and giving away possession. SJ is completely different story, and with their passing accuracy and shot effectiveness problems they would benefit from having ball more. So this is a big problem for them, and last game Portland won it 65% to 35%. There's more to think about ofcourse, but this is one detail that's been consistent for both teams and can be the reason to bet on it.
Last game was RLS @ Vancouver. Vancouver like MTL is also undervalued heavily, getting great odds but can't cash them. Once again one sided game that ended with draw. RSL continue to struggle, they scored on superb shot, but nothing else going on for them. They will have great opportunity at home against Chivas team that always provides some extra chances for opponent's offence. This game will be tough to figure and will need a little more attention.
As for Vancouver, they have back to back with Dallas, with 1st game away. Hope they won't forget their beer bottle protection...
It's overachiever vs underachiever for me, but I won't bet on that. Vancouver needs time to establish confidence and their identity. They have some things going for them, they can score on anybody. But they fail to get deserved results and changing that won't be overnight process. Need to keep eye on them.
Damn long story, but hopefully it will help in future and save time on next week's bets.

 

[ExeR]

So Columbus Phily Seattle Portland are away teams I like for next week. No odds yet so will add bets later.
As for midweek game between SKC and NYRB. NYRB is heavily overpriced. SKC was top road team last season, just 4 losses. They won one and got draw in another last season in NY, and they played very well recently. SKC haven't played on weekend, so no extra fatigue for them, while NY is an old team that can suffer from playing often. I would usually hate to bet against good home team, but they are really overpriced here and away team as good as it gets. So SKC +0,5 for 1.65 the best option for me, but Pinnacle don't have it, so use what they suggest:
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.877

 

[nojuice9]

great write-ups. Do you care to tally your record? I ask because I don't have time to go through, and I'm sure you track. Thanks

 

[ExeR]

great write-ups. Do you care to tally your record? I ask because I don't have time to go through, and I'm sure you track. Thanks

I post in few places, so there are some unposted bets somewhere for sure, but this is what it looks like:
Portland Timbers pk at odds 2.49 Pinnacle void
Montreal Impact pk at odds 3.19 Pinnacle loss
Houston Dynamo win at 2.06 with Pinnacle win
SEATTLE +0.5 AT ODDS 1.69 loss
Portland - Houston Over 2.5 at odds 2.11 Pinnacle L
SPORTING KC TO WIN AT ODDS 1.73 Pinnacle W
Columbus win at odds 2.01 Pinnacle L
RSL @ Colorado under 2,5 at odds 1.81 Pinnacle W
NYRB pk at odds 2.04 Pinnacle L
Montreal win at odds 2.09 Pinnacle L
Philadelphia Union/Toronto FC Total Under 2.5 for Game 1.862 W
Seattle to win at odds 1.7 Pinnacle L
Houston win at odds 1.77 Pinnacle W

Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.877 W
6-7-1 for -1.89 u, need 1 good week to turn it upside down. Hopefully SKC win will be the starting point. That game was funny, too much acting by SKC in the end. But both teams had chances, and with them you can't be sure that 1 goal will be enough. Both can play different styles and that's what stopped me from betting under. And what NYRB tried to do I don't understand. As a result they have: lost game, haven't rested anybody, lost key player. Now all of the sudden, game against NER will be harder than expected. Probably too proud to think about short term perspective.Odds are available, so time to look for bets on weekend.