MLB systems

rolltide · Aug 25, 2014

play RL on fav (NOT greater than -150 fav) after big runs vs losing team (only play RL if ML is -150 or lower...-145, -140, etc)

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and date > 20100901 and o:WP < 50

SU:	156-85 (1.02, 64.7%)	avg line: -123.7 / 113.6	on / against: +$5,285 / -$6,222	ROI: +17.7% / -25.4%
RL:	134-106 (-0.00, 55.8%)	avg line: 130.3 / -144.2	on / against: +$7,488 / -$9,055	ROI: +27.3% / -24.2%
OU:	124-104-12 (0.76, 54.4%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: +$1,110 / -$3,190	ROI: +4.2% / -12.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.0	9.2	0.6	3.3	6.9	9.8	5.6	7.2
Opp	3.9	8.5	0.6	3.0	7.3	9.6	5.7	7.1

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 25, 2014		Mon	away	Nationals	Tanner Roark - R	Phillies	AJ Burnett - R									-145	7.5

play UNDER on big fav (at least -145), non HR hitting team off 8+ runs (WAS u if -145 or higher, SEA u if umps are OK)

tA(HR) <= 0.9068 and p:runs >= 8 and line <= -145 and date > 20130426

SU:	54-25 (1.00, 68.4%)	avg line: -174.0 / 159.5	on / against: +$1,152 / -$1,475	ROI: +8.4% / -18.7%
RL:	33-46 (-0.50, 41.8%)	avg line: 120.8 / -131.1	on / against: -$559 / +$193	ROI: -7.0% / +1.9%
OU:	20-59-0 (-1.29, 25.3%)	avg total: 7.8	over / under: -$4,450 / +$3,685	ROI: -51.5% / +42.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.7	8.2	0.5	3.4	6.4	9.3	4.6	7.3
Opp	2.7	7.2	0.7	2.6	8.6	9.6	4.8	6.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 25, 2014		Mon	home	Mariners	Roenis Elias - L	Rangers	Miles Mikolas - R									-160	7.5
Aug 25, 2014		Mon	away	Nationals	Tanner Roark - R	Phillies	AJ Burnett - R									-145	7.5

bet on Home Dog with pitcher that K's a lot of hitters (on PHI so cancels WAS, of course)

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and ...

SU:	240-223 (-0.11, 51.8%)	avg line: 118.8 / -129.1	on / against: +$5,775 / -$8,257	ROI: +12.5% / -13.8%
RL:	292-168 (1.38, 63.5%)	avg line: -143.6 / 132.2	on / against: +$5,317 / -$7,287	ROI: +8.0% / -15.6%
OU:	214-227-19 (0.43, 48.5%)	avg total: 7.7	over / under: -$3,075 / -$1,155	ROI: -6.2% / -2.2%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.0	8.3	0.6	3.1	7.8	9.7	6.5	6.7
Opp	4.1	8.7	0.6	3.3	8.1	9.2	5.9	7.1

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 25, 2014		Mon	home	Phillies	AJ Burnett - R	Nationals	Tanner Roark - R									135	7.5

so just a couple of totals if the umps and prices are right, plus waldos to find

TyBounce · Aug 25, 2014

tyvm , roll.

savage55 · Aug 25, 2014

Thnx for posting Roll. I had a great day yesterday because of systems you posted.. Will you be posting CFB in this thread or separate on in CFB forum?

rolltide · Aug 25, 2014

separate and/or twitter

cfb is more difficult because the database isn't as robust as nfl. anyway, the intention is to have separate system threads in those areas in addition to this mlb. ncaaf systems really don't get going until week 3 or 4 but i have one out on twitter from a bit ago. it's a system i can't duplicate and c/p as the parameters aren't searchable on sportsdatabase.com

already posted some nfl in here somewhere but it will have it's own thread in the NFL section

rolltide · Aug 25, 2014

forgot to look at my player-only stuff....

starter = Clay Buchholz and A and line < 145 and date > 20090810

SU:	40-14 (1.85, 74.1%)	avg line: -114.1 / 103.9	on / against: +$2,611 / -$2,866	ROI: +40.4% / -48.6%
RL:	35-17 (1.42, 67.3%)	avg line: -112.0 / -100.6	on / against: +$2,136 / -$2,330	ROI: +31.5% / -35.4%
OU:	22-28-3 (-0.11, 44.0%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$820 / +$410	ROI: -14.1% / +7.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.0	9.4	0.5	3.5	7.2	9.4	6.6	7.4
Opp	3.2	7.5	0.5	3.0	7.0	9.2	7.6	6.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 25, 2014		Mon	away	Red Sox	Clay Buchholz - R	Blue Jays	JA Happ - L									110	9.0

JP-8 · Aug 25, 2014

Hmm tough call Sun tan lotion has been a gas can this year!

rolltide · Aug 25, 2014

JP-8 said:
Hmm tough call Sun tan lotion has been a gas can this year!

he's 5-3 +123% in this line parameter on the road this year...obviously don't play it if you don't like it

___________________________________________________________

sea ump is fine. u8 -115 is in

JP-8 · Aug 25, 2014

Thanks for the info love looking at this stuff daily have tried running a few queries myself just not as detailed as you are.

sunshine11 · Aug 25, 2014

Good luck

rolltide · Aug 26, 2014

dbase site down with technical issues i guess so no systems

so far 2 ump for FGS

under 7 +100 CIN
under 8 +100 NYY

DogDaze · Aug 26, 2014

Thanks RT.

rolltide · Aug 27, 2014

no WED umps, running systems now

rolltide · Aug 27, 2014

play ON the indians against bad streak team and scored 8+ last game

team = Indians and F and o:streak <= -3 and season >= 2008 and p:runs >= 8

SU:	21-1 (2.95, 95.5%)	avg line: -147.8 / 135.2	on / against: +$1,980 / -$1,990	ROI: +61.5% / -90.5%
RL:	16-6 (1.59, 72.7%)	avg line: 127.0 / -140.0	on / against: +$1,559 / -$1,735	ROI: +67.1% / -54.1%
OU:	10-12-0 (-0.59, 45.5%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$300 / +$130	ROI: -12.3% / +5.4%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.5	9.5	0.6	3.7	7.0	11.0	6.8	7.5
Opp	2.5	8.4	0.9	3.1	8.0	10.7	7.0	7.9

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	away	Indians	Corey Kluber - R	White Sox	Hector Noesi - R									-180	7.5

play UNDER when both pitchers terrible in last H2H meeting but away pitcher off QS last start (CLE/CWS under)

S:SRA >= 4 and oS:SRA >= 4 and HD and s:NQS and os:QS ....

SU:	12-20 (-0.78, 37.5%)	avg line: 125.4 / -135.8	on / against: -$663 / +$540	ROI: -20.7% / +12.6%
RL:	15-17 (0.62, 46.9%)	avg line: -133.4 / 121.8	on / against: -$672 / +$520	ROI: -15.2% / +15.5%
OU:	6-26-0 (-1.16, 18.8%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$2,200 / +$1,945	ROI: -63.5% / +54.4%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.1	7.5	0.5	3.0	7.7	9.3	5.7	6.8
Opp	3.9	8.2	0.4	2.9	7.2	9.6	4.3	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	home	White Sox	Hector Noesi - R	Indians	Corey Kluber - R									170	7.5

play UNDER SG=3 if game 2 saw a ton of pitchers used

SG = 3 and p

U + op

U > 13 and ...

SU:	91-90 (0.03, 50.3%)	avg line: -105.2 / -107.6	on / against: -$150 / -$790	ROI: -0.7% / -3.5%
RL:	76-76 (0.00, 50.0%)	avg line: -107.3 / -107.3	on / against: -$375 / -$375	ROI: -1.9% / -1.9%
OU:	50-123-8 (-1.31, 28.9%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$8,260 / +$6,750	ROI: -42.0% / +33.4%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.6	8.1	0.6	3.2	7.0	9.7	7.7	7.2
Opp	3.6	8.1	0.6	3.2	7.0	9.7	7.6	7.2

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	home	Blue Jays	Marcus Stroman - R	Red Sox	Joe Kelly - R									-140	8.5
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	away	Red Sox	Joe Kelly - R	Blue Jays	Marcus Stroman - R									130	8.5

oppose bad hitting AL home dogs after allowing a bunch of runs (on CLE)

HD and league = AL and Average(runs@team and season) <= 4.3 ...

SU:	81-180 (-1.71, 31.0%)	avg line: 128.5 / -139.9	on / against: -$7,865 / +$6,940	ROI: -30.1% / +19.0%
RL:	109-119 (-0.17, 47.8%)	avg line: -133.6 / 122.0	on / against: -$4,976 / +$3,604	ROI: -16.1% / +15.3%
OU:	120-127-14 (0.43, 48.6%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$1,960 / -$485	ROI: -6.8% / -1.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.6	8.1	0.7	2.8	7.6	10.3	7.5	6.7
Opp	5.3	9.7	0.5	3.4	6.8	9.7	6.8	7.3

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	home	White Sox	Hector Noesi - R	Indians	Corey Kluber - R									170	7.5

in SG=2 oppose bad hitting dogs in AL vs great pitcher (on CLE)

SG = 2 and DC and line >= 170 and line < 230 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 ...

SU:	47-119 (-2.17, 28.3%)	avg line: 184.4 / -212.5	on / against: -$3,450 / +$2,285	ROI: -20.8% / +6.5%
RL:	71-76 (-0.44, 48.3%)	avg line: -108.1 / -103.0	on / against: -$994 / +$379	ROI: -6.1% / +2.4%
OU:	83-72-11 (0.70, 53.5%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: +$470 / -$1,935	ROI: +2.6% / -10.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.5	7.8	0.7	2.6	8.0	10.0	7.3	6.2
Opp	5.7	9.9	0.5	3.6	6.0	9.6	7.1	7.3

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	home	White Sox	Hector Noesi - R	Indians	Corey Kluber - R									170	7.5

play UNDER non-HR hitting big fav off a big night of runs (LAD under)

tA(HR) <= 0.9068 and p:runs >= 8 ...

SU:	54-26 (0.96, 67.5%)	avg line: -174.7 / 160.1	on / against: +$982 / -$1,315	ROI: +7.0% / -16.4%
RL:	33-47 (-0.54, 41.2%)	avg line: 120.2 / -130.5	on / against: -$659 / +$293	ROI: -8.2% / +2.8%
OU:	20-60-0 (-1.34, 25.0%)	avg total: 7.8	over / under: -$4,570 / +$3,785	ROI: -52.1% / +42.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.7	8.2	0.5	3.4	6.4	9.3	4.5	7.2
Opp	2.7	7.2	0.7	2.6	8.6	9.6	4.8	6.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	away	Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw - L	Diamondbacks	Wade Miley - L									-195	7.0

play ON NL home dog with a starter that K's a lot of hitters (on SD, on NYM)

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and ...

SU:	29-19 (0.27, 60.4%)	avg line: 117.3 / -127.6	on / against: +$1,401 / -$1,689	ROI: +29.1% / -27.9%
RL:	33-15 (1.77, 68.8%)	avg line: -149.7 / 137.9	on / against: +$1,071 / -$1,246	ROI: +14.8% / -26.0%
OU:	19-24-5 (-0.09, 44.2%)	avg total: 7.2	over / under: -$685 / +$280	ROI: -13.1% / +5.2%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.7	8.2	0.4	2.2	8.0	9.4	4.5	6.1
Opp	3.4	7.9	0.4	2.7	8.5	8.3	4.3	6.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	home	Diamondbacks	Wade Miley - L	Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw - L									170	7.0
Aug 27, 2014		Wed	home	Mets	Zack Wheeler - R	Braves	Julio Teheran - R									125	6.

rolltide · Aug 27, 2014

also have 2 things on OAK....a league-wide system and their recent team trend of winning after losing as a dog...

CaptainMorgan · Aug 27, 2014

rolltide said:
separate and/or twitter

cfb is more difficult because the database isn't as robust as nfl. anyway, the intention is to have separate system threads in those areas in addition to this mlb. ncaaf systems really don't get going until week 3 or 4 but i have one out on twitter from a bit ago. it's a system i can't duplicate and c/p as the parameters aren't searchable on sportsdatabase.com

already posted some nfl in here somewhere but it will have it's own thread in the NFL section

what is your twitter handle if you don't mind me asking?

gofigyur8 · Aug 27, 2014

roll

Did you mean az not sd. so plays would be nym and az

rolltide · Aug 27, 2014

Captain Morgan said:
what is your twitter handle if you don't mind me asking?

@Injury_Time

rolltide · Aug 27, 2014

only one system for week 3 NFLX ... on NE +3 +100

Seattle fits same system but 1) line moved too much and 2) they have very short week vs the rest of NFL

rolltide · Aug 27, 2014

gofigyur8 said:
roll

Did you mean az not sd. so plays would be nym and az

correct. sorry about that

personally i skipped that one because i don't play both unders and sides on 6-7.5 totals...just too small of a window of opportunity to hit both so i have u7 in that one

rolltide · Aug 28, 2014

no umps....

Thu systems:

Play on big AL home fav (must be at least -134) off loss in FGS ... 10-2 L12

FGS and 0.215 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and FC and -215 <= line <= -134 and oS:SRA <= 1 ...

SU:	35-11 (1.65, 76.1%)	avg line: -157.9 / 145.1	on / against: +$1,895 / -$2,015	ROI: +26.0% / -43.8%
OU:	22-21-3 (0.54, 51.2%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$25 / -$335	ROI: -0.5% / -6.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.2	9.5	0.7	3.1	6.7	9.7	6.6	6.8
Opp	3.5	8.1	0.8	2.6	8.0	8.9	6.7	6.6

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 28, 2014		Thu	home	Astros	Collin McHugh - R	Rangers	Nick Tepesch - R									-141	8.0

have on one alexrod but he has just 1 start this year so not enough for me....

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