MLB Regular Season Only 3 Days Away ⚾

[Greenbacks]

19. Boston Red Sox​

Projected record: 78-84 (17% playoff odds | 0.5% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: The middle infield is gone. The Red Sox lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency and Trevor Story to injury. The Red Sox's signing of Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida at least must look a lot more exciting to the hardened Boston fans after everyone watched him rake during the WBC. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... They make the playoffs. That should be the goal every year for this franchise, but the reality is the Red Sox have yo-yoed back and forth for the past decade between postseason glory and last-place ignominy. In the past 10 full seasons, they have two World Series titles -- and four last-place finishes. No other team operates like this. Throw in last place in 2020, and that's five basement finishes in 11 seasons. Many believe that's where the Sox are headed in 2023, but there's enough talent here to defy the experts of Red Sox Nation. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: Rafael Devers has never finished within the top 10 in MVP voting, and this should be the year that changes. He's the undisputed face of the franchise after signing a 10-year, $313.5 million extension. He is one of the sport's most well-rounded hitters, and he made some nice strides defensively last season. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Yoshida proves the $90 million investment -- one that many in the game questioned -- worthwhile, at least in his first season, hitting .297 with a .385 OBP and scoring 100 runs. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

20. Chicago Cubs​

Projected record: 75-87 (12% playoff odds | 0.2% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: The Cubs added veteran Jameson Taillon to work at the front of a deep rotation. Still, the most stark changes are on the position-player side. Chicago remade its lineup with a half-dozen free agent signings, with the most notable being premier shortstop Dansby Swanson and 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger, who will look to get his career back on track at Wrigley Field. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... They get back over .500 and make a nice run at the playoffs while some of last season's younger players continue to grow -- guys like Justin Steele, Christopher Morel, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad. Matt Mervis could displace Eric Hosmer at first base during the season as well. What the Cubs really need for the future, however, is a couple of impact hitters to develop, so top prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara and Brennen Davis will need to show they'll be pounding on the big league door for 2024. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: Bellinger is too talented and still too young to have really fallen off so much. At some point you have to trust the sample size, though, and 1,143 plate appearances -- during which he slashed .203/.272/.376 in the three seasons that followed his MVP -- is quite the substantive one. But we've seen some flashes of greatness from Bellinger in that stretch, and the 27-year-old center fielder should be better in a new environment and with more time removed from shoulder surgery. He's a prime candidate for NL Comeback Player of the Year. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Cubs stay in the race until the final week of the season with the up-the-middle defense playing a key role. Swanson and Nico Hoerner win Gold Gloves as the Cubs climb from 10th in the NL in runs allowed into the top five. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

21. Arizona Diamondbacks​

Projected record: 78-84 (18% playoff odds | 0.4% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: Arizona has the look of a club that is coming together fast, a process aided by a roster-balancing offseason deal that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto in exchange for the D-backs' catcher of the present and future, Gabriel Moreno. With 23-year-old Alek Thomas patrolling center field and Corbin Carroll flanking him as a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, the skies over Phoenix are growing even brighter. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... Just two years ago the Diamondbacks lost 110 games, including a remarkable 8-48 record in May and June, so the fact that we're already talking about them as a potential surprise playoff contender is a rapid improvement. It's probably a year too soon to view the D-backs as serious contenders when the top NL teams are so stacked, so let's say a .500 season with a young, exciting outfield leading the way is a reasonable goal. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: We could have easily gone with Zac Gallen for the NL Cy Young Award here given the strides he made in 2022, but Carroll is the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year Award for obvious reasons. Carroll, 22, produced an .830 OPS in a 32-game major league sample last year -- near the end of his first full season of professional baseball, mind you -- and brings the type of all-around game that could make him the sport's best rookie in 2023. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Diamondbacks signed Carroll to an eight-year, $111 million extension ($134 million with the ninth-year option), so you know what they think about him. He's Kiley McDaniel's No. 2 overall prospect, so predicting him to win NL Rookie of the Year honors is an easy choice. But let's go with some big numbers as well: 20 home runs, 40 stolen bases and a .375 OBP. That could land him close to the top 10 of the MVP voting. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

22. San Francisco Giants​

Projected record: 80-82 (26% playoff odds | 0.8% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: Some of the names are different. Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling are in. Carlos Rodon and Evan Longoria are out. But the same dynamic -- depth, versatility, making every percentage play -- remains in effect. It can work, but it's a bit of a letdown after the Giants were attached to such superstar names as Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa over the winter. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... They win 90 games and make the playoffs. The Giants predictably fell off from their 107-win season in 2021, finishing .500. They lost Carlos Rodon and failed to land Judge or Correa. Mitch Haniger already has an oblique issue. Still, the Giants hope they can piece together a strong offense like they did in 2021 and Logan Webb leads a rotation that could be better than many expect (with rookie Kyle Harrison joining at some point). -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: Webb elevated to another level last year, going 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA in nearly 200 innings while sporting the fourth-lowest home run rate in the majors. Only Framber Valdez generated more ground balls than the sinker-heavy Webb, whose steady effectiveness could place him in the Cy Young discussion in 2023. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: David Villar leads the Giants in home runs (27) and RBIs (85). -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

23. Miami Marlins​

Projected record: 81-81 (29% playoff odds | 1.1% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: Little by little, the Marlins are inching toward respectability with a roster built around a deep and potentially dynamic rotation. That remains the case even after Miami dealt Pablo Lopez to acquire contact maestro Luis Arraez to hit atop a new-look lineup that will also include veteran Jean Segura. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... They finish over .500. The Marlins haven't done that in a full season since 2009. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: Nobody faced more batters or compiled more innings last year, and yet very few prevented runs better than Sandy Alcantara, who led the majors with six complete games, fashioned a 2.28 ERA and won the NL Cy Young Award unanimously. Alcantara has gone from a reliable innings eater to existing on a different platform from his peers. The only thing that might prevent him from winning another Cy Young is the fact that he resides on a Marlins team that won't hit much and might not defend well, either. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Three Marlins starting pitchers make the NL All-Star team. Alcantara is joined by Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

24. Kansas City Royals​

Projected record: 72-90 (5% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)

The Royals have a new brain trust, with J.J. Picollo beginning his first full season as head of the front office and Matt Quatraro dropping some Rays-inspired wisdom in the dugout. Depth and versatility are the new buzzwords in Kansas City, but the problem of turning its top youngsters into big-time producers -- Bobby Witt Jr., especially -- remains. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... They finish over .500. That would be a huge improvement from 65 wins. That feels like a long shot based on this roster and preseason projections, but it's time for some of the young Royals to get better. -- Schoenfield.

Most likely 2023 award winner: Brady Singer made a really nice jump last year, reducing his walks, compiling more innings and significantly lowering both his ERA (4.91 to 3.23) and his WHIP (1.55 to 1.14). He can make another leap in his age-26 season and vault into the Cy Young conversation. But he'll need to limit hard contact. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Witt Jr. goes 50/30 -- 50 stolen bases and 30 home runs. The only two players to do that: Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Bonds in 1990. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

25. Pittsburgh Pirates​

Projected record: 71-91 (4% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: The rebuilding Pirates added 105 years of human existence to form a new middle of the lineup consisting of Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi. As the NL MVP winner for the Pirates a decade ago, McCutchen, to quote "Field of Dreams," will remind Bucs fans of all that once was good, and it could be again. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... Oneil Cruz highlight videos are hotter than the Carolina Reaper. Roansy Contreras makes 32 starts and finishes with an ERA under 3.50. Endy Rodriguez finishes the year in Pittsburgh while Termarr Johnson and Henry Davis finish it as two of the top 10 prospects in the game. Bryan Reynolds signs a long-term extension to remain with the Pirates. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: He's already one of the game's best defensive third basemen, up there with Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. And the new rules should help him become even more of a force on the bases. Hayes, barely 26, added some muscle over the offseason that he hopes will translate to more power. If that element of his game emerges, he could make an MVP run in the not-too-distant future. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Reynolds doesn't sign an extension and instead gets traded to the Dodgers for a package that includes slugging outfield prospect Andy Pages and pitcher Nick Nastrini. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

26. Detroit Tigers​

Projected record: 66-96 (1% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds) -- Schoenfield

What's changed most since we saw them last: After last season's flop, new Tigers GM Scott Harris took a measured approach to the winter, focusing on stabilizing Detroit's young, injury-riddled rotation with the addition of Michael Lorenzen and the re-addition of Matthew Boyd. Beyond that, the focus in Detroit is on turning young major leaguers like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene into the stars the Tigers need them to become. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... The Tigers can do better than last year's 66-96 record. Yes, that's a low bar, but the Tigers are entering Phase I of Rebuild II. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: The Tigers don't need Javier Baez to contend for an MVP. But they need him to be a lot better. In his first season of a six-year, $140 million contract, Baez struck out nearly 150 times and put up an on-base percentage below .300. His OPS, .671, was 112 points lower than his career mark heading into the year. Baez was still solid defensively, but the Tigers need him to be an anchor for their lineup. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Tigers' best hitter will not be hopeful sophomore stars Torkelson or Greene, but rookie DH/OF Kerry Carpenter, who hit .313 with 30 home runs in the minors last season. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

27. Colorado Rockies​

Projected record: 60-102 (0% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: Colorado's strategy of taking what the free agent market gave it was undermined by a gut-punch shoulder injury to arguably its best player, infielder Brendan Rodgers. There is at least an interesting apparent changing of the guard at shortstop, where two-way prospect Ezequiel Tovar looks ready to take over. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... Let's turn this one over to Rockies owner Dick Monfort: "We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball," he said at an event in January. Good luck! -- Schoenfield.

Most likely 2023 award winner: Tovar, 21, is a skilled defender at shortstop who showed promising offensive signs while graduating to the major leagues last season. He brings solid bat-to-ball skills that will only be elevated (Get it?) while playing in Coors Field. It's no surprise Tovar enters 2023 as one of the front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: The Rockies finish with the worst record in the majors. But Kris Bryant wins the batting title! -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

28. Cincinnati Reds​

Projected record: 70-92 (3% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: The Reds appear to be biding their time with a lineup still anchored by future Hall of Famer Joey Votto and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. Most eyes will be on the rotation anyway, where Cincinnati hopes Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft can takes steps toward becoming an elite big three. -- Doolittle

The season will be a success if ... They lose fewer than 90 games. The Reds didn't do much to address a 100-loss team, and most of their impressive group of infield prospects will remain in the minors. The one they would love to see make an impact, at least in the second half, is Elly De La Cruz. He has just 47 games above A-ball, but Kiley McDaniel's No. 9 overall prospect has ridiculous tools and a huge ceiling if it comes together. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: A 6-foot-5 shortstop with 70-grade power, speed and arm strength, who slashed .945 in high A and Double-A last year? Let's hope De La Cruz comes up early enough to make a real run at the NL Rookie of the Year Award -- mostly because it's going to be so much fun to watch him play. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Hunter Greene leads the NL in strikeouts. Let's see. Corbin Burnes led last year with 243 and Zack Wheeler led in 2021 with 247, so we're talking 240-plus K's. Greene averaged 11.7 K's per nine in 125⅔ innings last year, making 24 starts. If he can get to 175 innings and average 12.4 K's per nine, that's 241 strikeouts. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

29. Oakland Athletics​

Projected record: 64-98 (0% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: The A's added veterans Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski to stabilize a rotation that will work in front of what appears to be a serviceable bullpen. That's good because this group doesn't figure to score many runs. -- Doolittle.

The season will be a success if ... The plumbing holds up? They draw a million fans? They score 600 runs? They hit higher than .216? Hey, the A's had a nice run from 2018 to 2021 with the fifth-most wins in the majors. It's going to take a couple more years -- at least -- to get back to that level. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: Ken Waldichuk, acquired in the August trade that sent Frankie Montas to the Yankees, maintained rookie eligibility for the 2023 season and could challenge for the award despite what seems like a deep field. Waldichuk, 25, is a left-hander with a funky delivery who brings advanced feel and command and what looks like a legitimate four-pitch mix. He won't blow you away with his radar-gun readings, but he's more polished than most rookies. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Esteury Ruiz leads the majors with 70 stolen bases, the first player to reach that total since Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009. That's exciting, but the best news is it will mean he hits well enough to remain in the lineup on an everyday basis. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

30. Washington Nationals​

Projected record: 64-98 (1% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)

What's changed most since we saw them last: The rebuild continues in D.C., which should keep Nats fans focused on the most dynamic young players on the roster. That group includes catcher Keibert Ruiz, who has already signed on for the long haul with Washington; shortstop CJ Abrams, whose speed could really be featured under the new set of MLB rules; and lefty starter MacKenzie Gore. -- Doolittle.

The season will be a success if ... Some of the young players step up and prove themselves as foundation-type pieces for the next good Nationals team. Gore, Josiah Gray, Ruiz and Abrams are the obvious four, but this extends down to the minor leagues, with Robert Hassell reaching the majors and high-end talents like James Wood, Elijah Green, Brady House and Cristhian Vaquero performing well. -- Schoenfield

Most likely 2023 award winner: The likes of Gore, Abrams, Ruiz and Gray have exceeded their rookie eligibility, while Cade Cavalli was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery and Robert Hassell has barely played above A-ball, so there aren't any foreseeable Rookie of the Year picks on this roster. And there definitely aren't any Cy Young or MVP hopefuls. So let's go a little off the board here -- Joey Meneses, a 30-year-old rookie last year, wins the Silver Slugger at DH. -- Gonzalez

One (realistic) bold prediction: Meneses proves his late-season assault on opposing pitchers was no fluke and hits .285 with 30 home runs -- but he ends the season with the Twins after a trade deadline deal. -- Schoenfield

 

[Greenbacks]

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