1. Houston Astros
Projected record: 92-70 (78% playoff odds | 8.2% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: In this day and age, you don't usually find a defending champ with a young rotation, but that's the case with these Astros. Over the past couple of years, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander have left via free agency. What's left are no rotation members who are 30 or older. And yet this might be one of the most dynamic rotations in baseball, led by the filthy duo of Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, with Hunter Brown looming as a potential ace. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... The Astros become the first back-to-back World Series champions since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. Just as impressive would be a seventh consecutive trip to the American League Championship Series. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Yordan Alvarez's age-25 season saw him post a 1.019 OPS and 37 home runs, good enough to finish third for the AL MVP. He might already be the game's best hitter; offense alone helped him reach 6.6 FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) last season. If he contributes a little more on the defensive side, he should challenge the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge for the trophy. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Alvarez chases the Triple Crown and leads the American League with 48 home runs but finishes second to Josh Bell in RBIs and second to Wander Franco in batting average. -- Schoenfield
2. San Diego Padres
Projected record: 93-69 (81% playoff odds | 8.7% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: Once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to the lineup next month -- and with plenty to prove -- the Padres will have a to-die-for top of the lineup consisting of offseason prize Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Tatis and Manny Machado. It's an older group and pretty expensive, but in terms of sheer star power, we've never seen anything quite like this in San Diego. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... Downtown San Diego is packed with tens of thousands of Padres fans for a parade on Nov. 6. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: If you watched Soto's at-bats during the World Baseball Classic, you saw someone who was already locked in, clearly motivated to recover from a relatively down year that still saw him slash .242/.401/.452. Soto is not a .242 hitter. Not even close. And now that he has settled into a new environment, he'll prove, once again, that he is the best pure hitter on the planet and make a run at an MVP. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Blake Snell has started slow and finished strong in both of his two seasons in San Diego, but this year he starts strong -- and starts the All-Star Game in his hometown of Seattle. -- Schoenfield
3. Atlanta Braves
Projected record: 94-68 (85% playoff odds | 10.5% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: In a winter that was more about shuffling than improving, the Braves have a new long-term catcher in Sean Murphy but lost franchise shortstop Dansby Swanson to the Cubs in free agency. After young infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake failed to win the job to replace Swanson in spring training, Atlanta will open the season with veteran Orlando Arcia at the spot after using him in a utility role the past couple of campaigns. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They win the NL East and make it back to the World Series. Last year's team was better than the 2021 team that won it all, which shows the unpredictability of the playoffs, but the Braves' chances of winning it all improve if they win the division title and avoid that wild-card series. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: There are so many options to choose from on this team, but let's go with Ronald Acuna Jr. getting back to being ... Ronald Acuna Jr. His magical 2019 was followed by the COVID-19-shortened season, then a 2021 season cut short by a torn ACL and a 2022 season in which he clearly wasn't himself just yet. He's still just 25 years old, and the Braves say he's fully healthy now. At his best, Acuna is one of the most electric players in the sport -- and a prime MVP candidate. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: There have been 65 30-30 seasons in MLB history. Fifteen of those came from center fielders. Only six of those guys hit .300. Four of those six won a Gold Glove: Willie Mays, Dale Murphy, Matt Kemp (!) and Jacoby Ellsbury. Michael Harris II becomes the fifth member of the 30/30/.300/CF/Gold Glove club. -- Schoenfield
4. New York Yankees
Projected record: 96-66 (88% playoff odds | 12.4% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The Yankees should have a younger look this season after seeing a number of 30-something players leave via free agency. All eyes in spring training have been on Anthony Volpe, who might take over at shortstop as soon as Opening Day after the Yankees announced he will start the season with the team. Free agent prize Carlos Rodon has also received a lot of attention, but not for a great reason: The Yankees' splashiest addition has had a balky elbow. If he's healthy, he'll team up with Gerrit Cole for a super one-two punch atop the New York rotation. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They win the World Series. Do we need to explain this? The Yankees haven't even been to a World Series since 2009. Bad luck, garbage can scandals, conspiracy theories, too many strikeouts, bad clutch hitting, not enough left-handed hitters, no heart, no Jeter, no Rivera, Aaron Boone can't manage his way out of a wet paper bag ... whatever the excuse or reason, Yankees fans have multitudes of them. It's time to raise the trophy. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: What Aaron Judge did last season -- produce a .311/425/.686 slash line, draw 111 walks and still manage an AL-record 62 home runs -- would be amazing in any era. It seems impossible in this one, given how difficult hitting has become. Judge has been an MVP contender every time he has played a full season, and there's no reason that won't be the case again in 2023. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Judge follows up his 62-homer season with ... 47. And a bunch of other superlative statistics. He doesn't win the MVP, but he finishes third. -- Schoenfield
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected record: 91-71 (75% playoff odds | 6.5% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The Dodgers saw a mass exodus of veteran talent over the winter, a big-name group that ranged from a former MVP in Cody Bellinger to a possible future MVP in Trea Turner to a franchise icon in Justin Turner. This version of the Dodgers will look very different, but one thing that hasn't changed in Chavez Ravine: the expectation to win the World Series. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They win an NL West title and a World Series. The Dodgers won the NL West in nine of the past 10 seasons, and the one season they didn't win it, they still won 106 games. Yes, they have more holes than they've had in a long time, but the lineup still has Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez. The rotation still has Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin (although he won't be ready for Opening Day) and Noah Syndergaard, plus two of the top pitching prospects in the game in Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone. So yeah, this season will be a success if it follows the path of other recent seasons. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Perhaps being ranked ninth in our 2023 top 100 will anger Betts enough that he'll go out and win another MVP. At 30 years old, he remains arguably the best all-around position player in the sport, capable of beating teams with his glove, arm, bat and feet. There might not be a more natural athlete around. If you don't believe us, just wait until you see him play second base this year. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: For all the talk about the Padres' big four hitters, let's go with this: Freeman, Betts, Smith and Martinez will produce more runs than Tatis, Soto, Machado and Bogaerts. We'll use batting runs above average from Baseball-Reference. Check back in October. -- Schoenfield
6. New York Mets
Projected record: 90-72 (71% playoff odds | 5.6% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The payroll? The Mets have spared no expense in building a roster that is long on star power and looks pretty deep as well. Yet there is a major void that opened up late in spring training when Edwin Diaz, the top current reliever in baseball, injured his knee during a postgame celebration at the WBC. Ouch. A bright, bright spotlight will now shine on relievers David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley and, perhaps most of all, manager Buck Showalter when the season begins. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... Let's just say that owner Steve Cohen doesn't have any vacations to Hawaii planned for the first week of November. Remember to leave a couple of additional days for a ticker-tape parade, Steve! -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are basically fused at the hip at this point, for obvious reasons -- late in their careers, still pitching at the height of their powers, and now making up the best rotation tandem in the major leagues. Scherzer and Verlander boast six Cy Young Awards between them, including Verlander's from last season. They'll fall off at some point, but there have been scant signs of that thus far. Until they prove otherwise, they'll continue to vie for more Cy Youngs, including this season. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: With Diaz out, Robertson leads the team in saves. But David Bednar will be the closer when the Mets reach the postseason, after he comes over in a trade with the Pirates. -- Schoenfield
7. Philadelphia Phillies
Projected record: 89-73 (66% playoff odds | 4.7% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: In the wake of a major knee injury suffered late in spring training by slugger Rhys Hoskins, there is some fancy navigating ahead for second-year manager Rob Thomson. The Phillies' position group didn't seem particularly deep to begin with, and the project of holding down the fort until Bryce Harper returns later this season is now made that much harder. Can Thomson juggle the challenge of hanging with the Mets and Braves while keeping his veterans from wearing down by the time Harper returns? -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... The Phillies can match last year's exciting playoff run. They'll need to hang in there until Harper returns, and they can't afford any injuries to the rotation, but let's see if last October's momentum carries over into 2023. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: As he nears his 30s, Trea Turner really seems to be coming into his own offensively, providing a speed-power combination that might be rivaled by only Betts. With Harper and Hoskins out, Turner, signed to an 11-year, $300 million contract this offseason, will need to step up at the top of the lineup. The bigger bases and the limited pickoffs might give him just enough of an extra boost to finish within the top three in MVP voting for the first time. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Did you watch the World Baseball Classic? If you did, this prediction hardly qualifies as courageous. It's about as bold as wearing shorts and a T-shirt the first day the temperature turns 60 degrees: Trea Turner for National League MVP. -- Schoenfield
8. Toronto Blue Jays
Projected record: 93-69 (80% playoff odds | 8.5% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: Ever since the Blue Jays rose back into the ranks of contenders in 2020, they've been trying to fill in the cracks to solidify a title-contending roster. This offseason saw the addition of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, along with the departure of Teoscar Hernandez, leaving Toronto with a team defense that could leap from average to elite. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They win the AL East ... make it to the ALCS ... and make it to the World Series for the first time since Joe Carter had his big moment in 1993. After back-to-back seasons of 91 and 92 wins, the Jays have the talent and the expectations to think bigger than merely making the playoffs as a wild card. That's the minimum. Their World Series dreams might depend on Jose Berrios bouncing back and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming closer to his 2021 numbers, but the 1-2 punch of Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah could be the best in the AL and gives them World Series dreams. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Manoah is only 25, and yet he's already one of the game's best pitchers. He made that big a leap in his second full season, ultimately finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022. He'll only be better now that he's a year older and will be backed by a better outfield defense -- especially since Manoah generated more weak contact than he did strikeouts last year. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: New outfielder Varsho goes 30-30, joining Shawn Green and Jose Cruz Jr. as the only Blue Jays to do it. Realistic after 27 home runs and 16 steals last year for Arizona? Look for Varsho's average and OBP to go up without the shift, giving him more opportunities to run. -- Schoenfield
9. St. Louis Cardinals
Projected record: 92-70 (81% playoff odds | 8.0% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The second half of last season was dominated by the farewell tours of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols. Now, those two Redbirds legends have indeed said farewell and a new era in St. Louis baseball is at hand. Most of the faces are familiar, including Molina's replacement behind the plate, former Cub Willson Contreras. The big difference is that Cardinals fans will no longer be rooting against him. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They reach the World Series. The Cardinals seem content to win what has been a soft division in recent seasons, in addition to around 90 games. But they've also gone 1-9 in their past four playoff series, losing the wild-card series in 2020 and 2022, the wild-card game in 2021 and getting swept in the 2019 NLCS. Will they go any further in 2023? They do have some exciting prospects on the way, but if Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado slip from their high level of 2022, even the division title isn't a guarantee. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Jordan Walker, the No. 14 prospect on Kiley McDaniel's Top 100, torched through spring training and showed he might be ready to handle major league pitching at the age of 20. The Cardinals have announced he will be on the Opening Day roster, now it is a matter of finding ways to get him in the lineup. Originally a third baseman who could transition to first, Walker has adjusted pretty well to the corner outfield, a necessity with Goldschmidt and Arenado on the roster. His power is off the charts. And we could see that translate to the big leagues soon enough to make a Rookie of the Year run. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: All aboard the Lars Nootbaar bandwagon! Nootbaar hits 30 home runs, makes the All-Star team and gets some down-ballot MVP votes. -- Schoenfield
10. Seattle Mariners
Projected record: 86-76 (49% playoff odds | 2.9% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: With multiple additions -- Kolten Wong to bolster the defense, Tommy LaStella to come off the bench and Teoscar Hernandez to anchor the lineup from the cleanup spot -- the Mariners have a more balanced and dynamic group of hitters who, as a collective, should play better team defense as well. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... The Mariners ended their long playoff drought last year and even tasted postseason victory with the wild-card win over Toronto. This year it means going ... ahh, let's just say it: One step further would be nice, but two steps further and reaching the first World Series in franchise history is what this team believes it can achieve. And if you can reach the World Series ... -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Last season, Julio Rodriguez cracked the Opening Day roster at the age of 21 and became a star almost immediately (we say "almost" because, if you'll remember, April was a struggle). Rodriguez wowed the fans of Seattle in the batter's box, on the bases and in the field, and his smile and his charisma made him a marketer's dream. What will Year 2 bring? It's fun to simply consider the possibilities. The reigning Rookie of the Year should elevate himself to MVP status. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: We could predict Luis Castillo to win the Cy Young Award or George Kirby to start the All-Star Game (which is in Seattle) or Logan Gilbert to win 20 games, but it's more fun to do something with Julio. Let's say he finishes second in the MVP voting (Ohtani goes chalk) and does so while hitting 40 home runs. He hit 27 over his final 99 games last year -- a 41-homer pace over 150 games. Only 10 players age 22 or younger have hit 40 home runs in a season (Eddie Mathews did it twice). Three have done it since 2019: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. And guess what? Julio's dad's name is ... Julio Sr. So that makes him a Junior as well. -- Schoenfield
11. Tampa Bay Rays
Projected record: 89-73 (65% playoff odds | 4.8% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: A team known for roster churn had relatively little of it over the winter, but the Rays did bid farewell to longtime center fielder Kiermaier in their ongoing bid to keep as many in-their-prime producers in key spots as possible. Beyond that, the hope is for better health from stalwarts like Brandon Lowe, Pete Fairbanks and Tyler Glasnow. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They return to the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. That might be a tough ask in the AL East and with the improved teams in the AL West, but the AL East has had three playoff teams each of the past two seasons. Going all the way? The lineup seems to lack that superstar linchpin, although maybe it gets there if Lowe hits again and Wander Franco improves. But the Rays hit .211 in their playoff loss to the Red Sox in 2021 and scored one run in two games in their wild-card loss to the Guardians in 2022. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Shane McClanahan was the AL's best pitcher in the first half last year, posting a 1.71 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 110⅔ innings. He faded down the stretch, then worked on his body over the offseason in hopes that that will never happen again. He should be a prime Cy Young contender in 2023. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: All the projection systems have Franco hitting .280-something -- barely above the .277 mark from last season, when injuries affected his playing time and perhaps his production. Let's call for a breakout season and predict a batting title with a .321 average. -- Schoenfield
12. Cleveland Guardians
Projected record: 91-71 (74% playoff odds | 6.9% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The youthful, scrapping Guardians you saw in last year's playoffs return largely intact, albeit a year older, wiser and perhaps more confident after 2022's surprising success. There's a new presence in the middle of the order, as switch-hitter Josh Bell signed as a free agent to help a lineup long on speed and contact ability crystallize into a more dynamic form. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... The Guardians return every decent player from a 92-win team, and while not prohibitive favorites in the AL Central, they are certainly favored to win it again. That means they should absolutely have World Series aspirations. Whether they have enough power to get there is the big question. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: There might not be a more consistent all-around player in the sport than the criminally underrated Jose Ramirez, who has finished within the top six in AL MVP voting five of the past six years. He's a complete hitter, a superb defender and a dangerous base stealer without the flashy tools. He should once again be good for a batting average around .300, 20-plus home runs, 20-plus stolen bases, triple-digit RBIs and somewhere in the neighborhood of 7.0 fWAR. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Guardians kind of have an old-school lineup, especially if Andres Gimenez bats second (as he should) rather than Amed Rosario. That gives them two solid on-base guys without a ton of power at the top of the lineup, Ramirez batting third and Bell cleanup. Which means a ton of RBI opportunities for Bell. Put it this way: Cleveland's cleanup hitters were terrible last season (.693 OPS) and still drove in 95 runs. So Bell will lead the AL in RBIs. -- Schoenfield
13. Milwaukee Brewers
Projected record: 85-77 (49% playoff odds | 2.6% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The front office is different, with Matt Arnold taking over at general manager for David Stearns, who stepped down. You wouldn't know it by Milwaukee's offseason moves, which had a similar flavor to past hot stoves. That's not a bad thing. Meanwhile, some anticipated position players are pushing through, with Brice Turang likely taking over at second, Garrett Mitchell in center and prospects like Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio not far away. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They can beat out the Cardinals for the NL Central title. The general consensus sees the Brewers taking a step back after missing the playoffs last year for the first time since 2017, but any team with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff fronting the rotation has a puncher's chance. If they can clinch the division, that's a huge win. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Burnes seemingly had a bit of a dip in production coming off his Cy Young Award in 2021, but he topped 200 innings for the first time, led the NL in strikeouts and still fashioned a 2.94 ERA in 2022. The 28-year-old right-hander remains one of the sport's best pitchers. And if his home run rate comes back to normal, he'll make another run at a Cy Young. Perhaps he'll find some added fuel in his anger toward the Brewers' arbitration process. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Brewers lead the NL in home runs. Hey, they were second a year ago (albeit 34 behind the Braves). William Contreras joins Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames in the 30-homer club. Less bold: Burnes takes home his second Cy Young Award. Power and starting pitching? Don't overlook the Brewers. -- Schoenfield
14. Minnesota Twins
Projected record: 85-77 (48% playoff odds | 2.6% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The Twins will have a rotation bolstered by the acquisition of Pablo Lopez and the return of Kenta Maeda. But perhaps the biggest change will be the identity of Minnesota's Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. At the start of the season, at least, it'll be trade acquisition Michael A. Taylor. Meanwhile, in another load management initiative, the Twins will make Byron Buxton the most athletic DH in the history of the game. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They win the AL Central AND beat the Yankees in a playoff series. That's right, we're skipping right past "win a playoff game" (the Twins have lost an unfathomable 18 in a row) and going straight to winning a series. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Carlos Correa is here to stay, on the heels of a massive free agent contract -- and a roller-coaster free agency -- that will make him the face of the Twins for the next ... well, six years at least. He's a feared hitter and a strong defender at a premium position who is still -- amazingly -- only 28 years old. And given the unique structure of his contract, he'll be extra motivated to put up MVP numbers. Correa has yet to finish within the top three in MVP voting. If he's healthy, that might change in 2023. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Joe Ryan wins 17 games and finishes with a sub-3.00 ERA and in the top five of Cy Young voting. -- Schoenfield
15. Los Angeles Angels
Projected record: 79-83 (18% playoff odds | 0.7% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The Angels' active roster to begin the season -- before any injuries -- looks deeper than in seasons past. There are more than enough quality arms for a six-man rotation. Additions to the position player group have given manager Phil Nevin more lineup flexibility and a better bench. The bullpen? Well, the rest of the roster looks good. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... Ohtani finishes the season in an Angels uniform ... and then starts the first game of a playoff series. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: We'll go with two here, because it's fitting: Ohtani and Trout -- our No. 1- and No. 2-ranked players, respectively, heading into the 2023 season -- both vying for the AL MVP. They boast nine top-two finishes for the AL MVP between them and look like the favorites to finish 1 and 2 this year, in whatever order. Ohtani is only getting better as a two-way player and could be in for a big year -- perhaps his biggest yet -- leading up to free agency. Trout is still only 31. And when healthy, he still looks like one of the greatest baseball players on the planet. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Picking Ohtani to win the MVP isn't exactly as daring as, say, when the White Sox thought it was a good idea to wear shorts (that idea lasted three games). How about a Cy Young Award then? He finished fourth a year ago, and the issue is if he can pitch enough innings to merit stronger consideration. He pitched 166 last year -- but that was only nine fewer than Verlander threw in winning it and one less than Burnes threw when he won in 2021. So, a few more deep starts or maybe an extra one or two -- more likely if the Angels are in the playoff race -- and he can get to 175 or 180 innings and pull it off. -- Schoenfield
16. Texas Rangers
Projected record: 83-79 (37% playoff odds | 1.6% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: Not much -- except pretty much everything. The Rangers have a new brain trust with a Chris Young-led front office and a Hall of Fame-bound manager in Bruce Bochy, whose John Prine-sounding baritone will fit Texas like a weathered glove. And, also, there is an all-new rotation that the Rangers have purchased over the past year-plus, led by best-pitcher-on-the-planet-when-healthy Jacob deGrom. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They sneak into the playoffs, which they last made in 2016. It's a big jump from 68 wins to the postseason, especially in a league where five teams won 90 games a year ago and seven did so in 2021, but the Rangers are aiming for something more than just a .500 finish considering the way they have spent the past two offseasons. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: DeGrom's five-year, $185 million free agent contract stunned a lot of people in the industry, given both his age and injury history. But it underscored an important point: When healthy, nobody is better. DeGrom followed his run of back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 with a 2.05 ERA and 352 strikeouts in 224 1/3 innings. The problem, of course, is that those innings took place over the course of three seasons. If he avoids the injured list, deGrom will undoubtedly contend for another Cy Young. Let's hope that's the case. We just want to see him out there. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Hmm, we already predicted Shohei Ohtani to win the AL Cy Young Award, and doubling up is not allowed, so we'll stay away from deGrom (probably a wise decision). Let's instead go with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien becoming the first middle-infield duo in MLB history with 35 home runs apiece. The only team with even two 30-homer middle infielders was ... you'll never get it ... don't even try to guess ... the 2008 Marlins with Hanley Ramirez (33) and Dan Uggla (32). -- Schoenfield
17. Baltimore Orioles
Projected record: 74-88 (7% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The most significant difference between the Orioles on the first day of spring this year as opposed to last year is expectation. That'll happen when you jump from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 last season. The big question is whether expectations have outstripped the Orioles' rate of actual improvement. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... It includes a trip to the postseason. Many are expecting the Orioles to take a step back after perhaps not doing enough to address pitching concerns, but if rookies Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez match Adley Rutschman's 2022 star rookie turn, they could surprise. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Henderson entered the season as the No. 1 prospect on Kiley McDaniel's rankings and stands as the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. That shouldn't surprise anyone. Henderson, 21, is an above-average defender at third base who brings plus power and an advanced feel for the strike zone. And he gets better every year. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Rutschman will start the All-Star Game. That's not the bold prediction. This is: He leads the AL in on-base percentage. Aaron Judge led last year with a .425 mark, but Rutschman had a .399 OBP in the second half. -- Schoenfield
18. Chicago White Sox
Projected record: 83-79 (34% playoff odds | 1.4% World Series odds)What's changed most since we saw them last: The White Sox saw 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu depart, and his absence leaves a production and leadership void that Chicago hopes to fill organically. Andrew Vaughn will get his first crack as an everyday first baseman, and power-hitting rookie Oscar Colas might end up as the regular in right. -- Doolittle
The season will be a success if ... They win the AL Central and do some damage in the playoffs. This team has the same strengths as the one that won 93 games two years ago. With better health, the expectations for this year's team should be just as high, especially with several potential bounce-back candidates in Lucas Giolito, Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada. -- Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: It took a historic season from Justin Verlander to prevent Dylan Cease from winning the AL Cy Young Award last year. His surface numbers (2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts, albeit with 78 walks) were just as good as his peripheral ones (he ranked within the top 10% in the sport in hard-hit rate, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage). His age-27 season could be a big one. -- Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Vaughn ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate last year. His swing-and-miss rate was in the 74th percentile. He's entering his age-25 season and has two years of major league experience. The skills are here to make a leap. He needs to get the ball in the air more often and to improve his chase rate. I predict he does that and hits .275 with 30 home runs. -- Schoenfield
