MLB Playoffs.

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Philadelphia Phillies​

No. 2 seed | 95-67 | NL East champs

NLDS opponent: Mets (56.9% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 13.7% | ESPN BET odds: +425

Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2

If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be ... Starting pitchers rarely win World Series MVP honors these days -- only Stephen Strasburg in 2019, Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Cole Hamels in 2008 have won in the past 20 years -- but Wheeler would be the best bet to do it this postseason. He has been great for a long time and just had his best regular season. He has performed well the past two postseasons (2.42 ERA). He's efficient enough to pitch deep enough into games to impress the voters. Just don't expect any complete games (Johnny Cueto threw the last in the World Series in 2015). -- Schoenfield

If they go home soon, it will be because ... Rust trumps rest. OK, so that can't really be a reason. Or can it? The Phillies are as well rounded as any team in baseball. They have a top-flight starting rotation, bullpen and offense. They boast a veteran roster that has experienced it all. This team is better than the Philly teams that advanced to the World Series in 2022 and fell one game short of returning in 2023. Both times the Phillies were a wild-card entrant, and both times they toppled the mighty Braves, the NL East champs, in the NLDS. This time, the Phillies will benefit from (or be hindered by?) a bye to the NLDS after winning their first division title since 2011. They will not roll from the regular season straight into October madness. Will that matter? It's a debate waged every year. Maybe it will for the Phillies. -- Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: What might separate this Phillies team from other great ones of recent years is the depth of the pitching staff, with five members making the 2024 All-Star team. Nobody embodies that better than Cristopher Sanchez, the 27-year-old left-hander who has shown he can hold up over a full season. Sanchez, who made just one brief start in last year's postseason, has been mostly dominant since the middle of August. He has been especially good at home, making him a logical candidate to start as early as Game 2 of the division series. Regardless of the venue, he and Ranger Suarez will have to step up behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola when the lights get brightest. -- Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Bryce Harper, full stop. OK, Harper is a polarizing player to some, for reasons that aren't readily apparent. Still, he's a great, great player, a future Hall of Famer who goes about things the right way, and greatness is always worth appreciating. Harper has excellent career postseason numbers, especially for the Phillies portion of his career, but he is stuck on zero rings. The Phillies have a lot of terrific players who play hard looking for their first title, but it's Harper more than anyone who needs a ring to fill out his impeccable résumé. -- Doolittle

 

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San Diego Padres​

No. 4 seed | 93-69 | NL wild card

NLDS opponent: Dodgers (43.0% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 11.2% | ESPN BET odds: +550

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 11

If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be ... Manny Machado got off to a slow start at the plate as he recovered from offseason elbow surgery (hitting .241 with five home runs through May). As the offense surged in the second half, however, Machado crushed it, averaging nearly an RBI per game. He hasn't been great in the postseason -- .221 average with a .274 OBP in 41 games -- so maybe he's due for a big October. -- Schoenfield

If they go home soon, it will be because ... Robert Suárez's recent struggles bleed into the postseason. The Padres arguably had the best bullpen in baseball once they acquired Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. But Suárez hasn't played his part of dominant closer over the final two months. Suárez, an All-Star, had a 1.42 ERA, .517 OPS against, and 24 saves in 27 chances across 44 appearances through Aug. 7. Over his next 20 outings, he posted a 5.66 ERA with a .752 OPS against and three blown saves in 15 save opportunities. He probably would've had another blown save if Miguel Rojas hadn't grounded into a game-ending triple play with Shohei Ohtani on deck on Sept. 24. It's been choppy for Suárez, but the Padres have stuck with him in the ninth inning. The leash could be shorter deeper into October. -- Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The Padres had the audacity to take a 20-year-old lifetime shortstop who hadn't played above Double-A, tell him to learn center field and ask him to help make up for the loss of Juan Soto. And Jackson Merrill has had the audacity to do more than even the most optimistic of folks could have expected from him. Merrill, now 21, has played an elite center field and has been an even better hitter, providing power and speed and a knack for coming through in clutch situations -- an element that famously eluded last season's group. He might win the Rookie of the Year despite Paul Skenes' transformative season in Pittsburgh. But first, he'll star in October. -- Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Maybe it's hard to watch a game and root for an executive, but when it comes to assertive roster-building, no one does it with more alacrity than A.J. Preller. No matter where the Padres are or what they have to spend, he pursues titles with the zeal of a Swiftie on the trail of a beaded bracelet. This year's team was built for this moment, especially when it comes to the powerhouse collection of closer-level relievers Preller has collected during his manic searches of the transaction market. The Padres are one of the five MLB teams that have never won a World Series. Thanks to Preller, they might be better positioned to exit that list than ever before. -- Doolittle

 

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New York Mets​

No. 6 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card

NLDS opponent: Phillies (43.1% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 8.4% | ESPN BET odds: +1200

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9

If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be ... Pete Alonso is heading to free agency, and the fan favorite belongs in the Big Apple for his entire career. What better way to ensure a return to the Mets than winning World Series MVP honors? It was an up-and-down regular season for him, but he's certainly capable of bashing some big home runs as he proved with his dramatic home run to lift New York past Milwaukee in the wild-card round. -- Schoenfield

If they go home soon, it will be because ... Francisco Lindor struggles to play through back pain. Lindor was Ohtani's closest competition for NL MVP until his back flared up Sept. 13. He played just one inning over the next 13 days before returning to the Mets' lineup Friday. Neither Lindor nor the Mets have disclosed a diagnosis, but Lindor said testing showed "no structural damage" and he received a facet injection two Thursdays ago to expedite the healing process. The Mets went 6-6 without him to stay afloat, but October will be different. Lindor is the team's heartbeat. He's their leadoff hitter, shortstop and clubhouse leader. He does the three jobs at an elite level. Winning multiple playoff series without a healthy Lindor would be a tall task. -- Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: If the Mets are going to make a surprisingly deep run in October, it's going to take a lot of work from their pitching staff. And nobody will be more important than Sean Manaea, who provided five strong innings in Game 2 against the Brewers. After back-to-back years with bloated ERAs in San Diego and San Francisco, Manaea went back to featuring his sinker instead of his four-seamer and has been perhaps the most astute addition in David Stearns' first year atop baseball operations. Manaea seems all but certain to opt out of his two-year contract at season's end. Before then, the 32-year-old left-hander will help lead a Mets rotation that might not get Kodai Senga back. -- Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Sustainability. The Mets aren't exactly a bargain team, but they are a little leaner compared with last season. Stearns has built a more efficient, deeper roster and made sure the Mets' younger players got a chance to establish themselves at the big league level. Over the years, the Mets have tended to be less sustainable and more reckless, which can be fun but wearisome. You'd like to see the new approach pay off in October because, if it does, and you consider this model as a foundation to justify some ramped-up spending to come, you can start to ponder a new golden age in Mets baseball. That's worth rooting for, though, admittedly, that might work for you only if you already root for the Mets. Smart management is always fun! -- Doolittle

 

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Kodai Senga To Start NLDS Game One For Mets.​

The Mets are facing off against the Phillies in the National League Division Series, with the first game set for Saturday afternoon. Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters today that right-hander Kodai Senga will start that first game for the Mets. Mike Puma of The New York Post was among those to relay the news on X.
The Mets have received close to nothing from Senga this year. He suffered a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder in Spring Training, which kept him on the injured list for months. He was reinstated off the injured list and made his season debut on July 26, but was removed from that game after 5 1/3 innings due to a calf strain and went right back on the IL. He tried to return late in the regular season but was slowed by some triceps soreness.
That lack of production from Senga was a blow to the Mets. He made his major league debut in 2023 and tossed 166 1/3 innings with a 2.98 earned run average. His 11.1% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 29.1% of batters faced and got grounders at a 44.7% clip. Despite that, the Mets managed to squeak into the postseason and then defeat the Brewers in the Wild Card series while Senga remained on the IL.
Yesterday, Will Sammon of Athletic reported that the Mets were considering Senga for their NLDS roster. Now it seems that the righty will not only get a roster spot but will take the ball to get the series started.

 

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Ahead of NLDS, Padres say Joe Musgrove needs Tommy John.​

LOS ANGELES -- San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove suffered damage to his ulnar collateral ligament during his Wednesday start and will soon undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his season and all but ruling him out for the entirety of 2025.
Musgrove exited in the fourth inning of his start in Game 2 of the Padres' wild-card series after back-to-back mid-70 mph curveballs to Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson. An initial MRI didn't show further damage to his UCL, but a follow-up Thursday, after the inflammation had subsided, revealed enough of a tear to warrant surgery.
I'm devastated about not finishing what we initially started," Musgrove said Friday, before the rest of his team went through a workout from Dodger Stadium ahead of the National League Division Series. "I'm not all that concerned about the work or the rehab or the time off. I know how to work hard. It's just a matter of coming to grips with the fact that this is it for me."
Musgrove's absence the rest of October likely means Martin Perez, who posted a 3.46 ERA in 10 starts since being acquired before the trade deadline, will jump into the Padres' postseason rotation.
The Padres will start Dylan Cease in Game 1 on Saturday, Yu Darvish in Game 2 on Sunday and Michael King when the series shifts to San Diego for Game 3 on Tuesday. Perez seems like the logical choice to start a potential Game 4.
"We're definitely not here if it's not for Joe Musgrove," Padres general manager A.J. Preller said. "He's obviously very disappointed; everybody in that room feels for him. We've had a lot of guys step up this year. And it's gonna take now other guys in that staff to step up because it's definitely a big blow."
Musgrove made two separate trips to the injured list because of issues stemming from bone spurs earlier this season, missing about three weeks in May, making two starts and going on the shelf again. Musgrove's second IL stint was followed by a more deliberate ramp-up, a platelet-rich-plasma injection to promote healing and a slight delivery adjustment to take some of the stress off his right elbow. But MRIs in the summer also showed some damage to his UCL and that "it was kind of a matter of time" before a tear might occur, Musgrove said.
Added Musgrove: "The writing was on the wall for me with the injury."
Musgrove, 31, went on one of the best runs of his career upon returning in mid-August, posting a 2.15 ERA with 57 strikeouts and eight walks in 50⅓ innings over his last nine regular-season starts. Musgrove went into October believing he could push through for at least another month. He took the mound at Petco Park on Wednesday feeling like his normal self, until he began to feel tightness in his right elbow after his third inning of work. He returned for the top of the fourth not knowing what to expect.
"I was just trying to get it over the plate and get out of the inning," Musgrove said. "I didn't necessarily know it was a UCL injury, but it was something I hadn't felt before, to a point where I think that was the first time in my career I've ever walked off a mound."
Musgrove, signed through 2027, said he hasn't scheduled surgery or decided on which doctor will perform it, but he hopes to get it done "sooner rather than later."
He also plans to be around his teammates for however long their run lasts.
"It's unfortunate that he's not, performance-wise, going to be out there," Cease said. "But he's a big part of our clubhouse and a leader. He'll be with us in other ways."

 

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Division Series umpire crews announced by MLB.​

NEW YORK -- Dan Bellino, Mark Carlson, James Hoye and Todd Tichenor will be umpire crew chiefs for the AL Division Series starting Saturday.
Crew chiefs will all work third base in the series openers and will be behind the plate for a Game 4 of the best-of-five series, Major League Baseball said Friday.
Carlson will work the New York Yankees' series against Kansas City and be joined in the opener by Adam Hamari at the plate, Ryan Blakney at first, Lance Barrett at second, Lance Barksdale in left and Roberto Ortiz in right.
Umpires rotate from right field to left and then clockwise around the bases starting at third.
Tichenor will be at Cleveland's series against Detroit on a crew that starts with Adam Beck behind the plate, Ramon De Jesus at first, Jim Wolf at second, Chad Fairchild in left and Nick Mahrley in right. Mahrley will be making his postseason on-field debut after working as a replay umpire last year.
Bellino will work the Los Angeles Dodgers' series against San Diego, joined in Game 1 by Mark Ripperger behind the plate, John Libka at first, Cory Blaser at second, Tripp Gibson in left and Adrian Johnson in right.
Hoye will be at Philadelphia's series against the New York Mets, joined in the opener by Andy Fletcher behind the plate, Edwin Moscoso at first, Doug Eddings at second, Carlos Torres in left and Rob Drake in right.
Chris Conroy, Chris Guccione, John Tumpane and Chad Whitson will be the video review umpires at MLB's office in New York.

 

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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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• Series line: Tigers (+105), Guardians (-125)
• Series result: Tigers sweep (+600), Tigers in 4 (+400), Tigers in 5 (+400)
• Series result: Guardians sweep (+550), Guardians in 4 (+325), Guardians in 5 (+450)

Zola's series pick: Playoff baseball is intriguing since runs are harder to come by, but the successful teams usually hit more homers. The Guardians' offense is ideal for this scenario, and they manage their pitching as well as any team in the postseason. That said, they will face Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal in Game 2, so predicting a sweep is aggressive. So is anticipating the Guardians to sweep both games in Motown, but that's where I am going, avoiding betting simply on the Guardians to defeat the Tigers and calling it in four games.

Game 1: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Saturday, Oct. 5, 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS)

• Game 1 line: Tigers +1.5 (-175), Guardians -1.5 (+145)
• Game 1 money line: Tigers +130, Guardians -155
• Game 1 O/U: 7.5 runs, Over (+110)/Under (-130)

Game 2: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Monday, Oct. 7, 4:08 p.m. ET (TBS)

Game 3: Comerica Park, Detroit, Wednesday, Oct. 9, TBD, (TBS)

*Game 4: Comerica Park, Detroit, Thursday, Oct. 10, TBD, (TBS)

*Game 5: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Saturday, Oct. 12, TBD, (TBS)

 

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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• Series line: Mets (+150), Phillies (-180)
• Series result: Mets sweep (+900), Mets in 4 (+500), Mets in 5 (+550)
• Series result: Phillies sweep (+425), Phillies in 4 (+300), Phillies in 5 (+280)

Zola's series pick: The Phillies are one of the few teams with three solid starting pitchers, although their bullpen is suspect. The Phillies are favored over the Mets, and they are my choice to advance. The safe play is just picking the Phillies to win the series. I'm going to be more adventurous, however, and I will back the Phillies to win in four.

Game 1: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Saturday, Oct. 5, 4:08 p.m. ET (FOX)

• Game 1 line: Mets +1.5 (-145), Phillies -1.5 (+120)
• Game 1 money line: Mets +155, Phillies -185
• Game 1 O/U: 7.5 runs, Over (+110)/Under (-130)

Game 2: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:08 p.m. ET (FS1)

Game 3: Citi Field, New York, Tuesday, Oct. 8, TBD, (FOX/FS1)

*Game 4: Citi Field, New York, Wednesday, Oct. 9, TBD, (FOX/FS1)

*Game 5: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Friday, Oct. 11, TBD, (FOX/FS1)

 

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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

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• Series line: Royals (+170), Yankees (-210)
• Series result: Royals sweep (+1300), Royals in 4 (+600), Royals in 5 (+500)
• Series result: Yankees sweep (+360), Yankees in 4 (+250), Yankees in 5 (+320)

Zola's series pick: Of the four divisional series, this is the toughest for me to handicap. The odds disagree as they have the Yankees as the heaviest favorites in this round. My issue is that the Yankees' pitching, on paper, should be better than the Royals', but there are a lot of question marks in the New York rotation while the Royals are healthy and in a groove. Yankees bats should be better than their counterparts, but they are fueled by homers and the Royals staff yielded the fewest long balls in MLB. For the second straight round, the Royals are my upset special. I'm taking them to win the series, but I am also hedging a bit by calling the series to go five games (+170).

Game 1: Yankee Stadium, New York, Saturday, Oct. 5, 6:38 p.m. ET (TBS)

• Game 1 line: Royals +1.5 (-130), Yankees -1.5 (+110)
• Game 1 money line: Royals +170, Yankees -205
• Game 1 O/U: 7.5 runs, Over (-120)/Under (Even)

Game 2: Yankee Stadium, New York, Monday, Oct. 7, 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS)

Game 3: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Wednesday, Oct. 9, TBD, (TBS)

*Game 4: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Thursday, Oct. 10, TBD, (TBS)

*Game 5: Yankee Stadium, New York, Saturday, Oct. 12, TBD, (TBS)

 

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

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• Series line: Padres (+115), Dodgers (-135)
• Series result: Padres sweep (+750), Padres in 4 (+425), Padres in 5 (+450)
• Series result: Dodgers sweep (+500), Dodgers in 4 (+340), Dodgers in 5 (+320)

Zola's series pick: The Dodgers and Padres opened the season in South Korea, and now they meet to decide who represents SoCal in the NLCS. The Dodgers finished five games ahead of the Padres in the NL West and are slight favorites. However, the Padres' starting pitching is in much better shape, plus the San Diego bullpen is solid. Since the Padres are getting plus odds as the underdog, I'm taking the Padres to win the series while also picking them to defeat the Dodgers in four games.

Game 1: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Saturday, Oct. 5, 8:38 p.m. ET (FS1)

• Game 1 line: Padres +1.5 (-190), Dodgers -1.5 (+160)
• Game 1 money line: Padres +115, Dodgers -135
• Game 1 O/U: 7.5 runs, Over (-115)/Under (-105)

Game 2: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Sunday, Oct. 6, 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1)

Game 3: Petco Park, San Diego, Tuesday, Oct. 8, TBD, (FOX/FS1)

*Game 4: Petco Park, San Diego, Wednesday, Oct. 9, TBD, (FOX/FS1)

*Game 5: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Friday, Oct. 11, TBD, (FOX/FS1)

 

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Guardians RHP Ben Lively left off ALDS roster vs. Tigers​

Ben Lively was left off Cleveland's roster for the AL Division Series against Detroit despite being an invaluable addition to the Guardians' starting rotation this season.
Lively went 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA in 29 starts for the Guardians, who signed him to a one-year contract as a free agent in December. The right-hander was arguably the club's most consistent pitcher for the first three months of the season.
The Guardians and Detroit Tigers announced their rosters about three hours before Game 1 on Saturday.
Added to give Cleveland depth, Lively helped the AL Central champions overcome the loss of former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, who made just two starts before having season-ending Tommy John surgery.

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842620089482317919

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842645525767631287

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842641549621887425

 

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