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MLB for the week of 7/21
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
for 7/26
I dont see much today that I like, and that's rare.
NYY -1.5 +104 for .3%
based mainly on NY's domination of BOS over the last twenty, Mussina's as well, Burkett's futility vs NYY. The total is 10 which leads me to believe somebody scores some runs in this matchup, and it seems logical that more runs are scored vs Burkett. Yesterday NYY was a +180 dog. I could go on and on, but the bottom line is I feel NYY wins this matchup by 2 or more at least 55% of the time, this is a small play for me. I'm not very familiar with totals in MLB yet, but I'm leaning to the over, this might be a spot for a team total of NYY over the number, but I havent looked at it or the odds, and it might not be too good of an idea to play both a NYY team total and the RL, if you can parlay them fire away. I need to sleep or I'd look into it.
PITT +191 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +300 for .1%
Williams may be suffering from arm fatigue. His number of pitches jumped out at me, I dont know if he usually throws that many each outing year after year, but his recent numbers seem to indicate something may be amiss. PITT is a good road team that I like to pick my spots with, this doesnt have as much value as the PITT/STLOU matchup yesterday, but I'd take PITT to +170 all things considered.
Now to sleep...
I dont see much today that I like, and that's rare.
NYY -1.5 +104 for .3%
based mainly on NY's domination of BOS over the last twenty, Mussina's as well, Burkett's futility vs NYY. The total is 10 which leads me to believe somebody scores some runs in this matchup, and it seems logical that more runs are scored vs Burkett. Yesterday NYY was a +180 dog. I could go on and on, but the bottom line is I feel NYY wins this matchup by 2 or more at least 55% of the time, this is a small play for me. I'm not very familiar with totals in MLB yet, but I'm leaning to the over, this might be a spot for a team total of NYY over the number, but I havent looked at it or the odds, and it might not be too good of an idea to play both a NYY team total and the RL, if you can parlay them fire away. I need to sleep or I'd look into it.
PITT +191 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +300 for .1%
Williams may be suffering from arm fatigue. His number of pitches jumped out at me, I dont know if he usually throws that many each outing year after year, but his recent numbers seem to indicate something may be amiss. PITT is a good road team that I like to pick my spots with, this doesnt have as much value as the PITT/STLOU matchup yesterday, but I'd take PITT to +170 all things considered.
Now to sleep...
my thoughts on line moves:
I'm tired right now, so I wont elaborate too much. Right now I dont pay attention to line moves in baseball too much, but I've been decent at taking good numbers before the line moves on dogs in the last couple of weeks. I determine a fractional probability of one team beating another and convert it to a moneyline for the majority of baseball games, and compare it to what is offered. If the line moves against me (a dog now pays less than previously) before I get can get down, then generally that is good as far as win% recently, except that a little value is lost. I dont increase a wager b/c of a line move in most cases b/c usually the lost value makes the price less attractive. Sometimes I'll come back and add more to a wager after the line has moved, and usually that is b/c I've taken a break, determined what each game is worth, and formed a strategy for the day. I rationalize about most of the games outside of the obvious numbers, and if I feel another angle adds even more value then I'll put more down on a line even if it has moved. I rarely try to determine who will win a baseball game, I only try to determine what PERCENT of the time a team will win, quite a few times the dog should be favored.
After this baseball season I may add line moves as and add'l angle similar to what I do in basketball and football. In football I probably look at 20 or more different things for each game, after a while half of it is subconscious. One of the ways that I use line moves in football is looking at who the public likes. A lot of line moves are from sharp action, a lot of line moves are from the public and it takes a while to know the difference. When the public is on one team in a big way and the line moves the OPPOSITE direction (luring more of the public, or a 'trap') fading the public action has been profitable for several years. But each situation is different and I dont do it blindly, but usually I already like the team opposite of who the public likes so when I see this situation I may go a bit higher, and I usually get ready to risk more on the 2nd half as well. A lot of people will say that there is no value fading the public, but those people dont know who the public is on, you need to book and have access to book info from several different regions to know for sure. During the regular season I do have plays that I would normally pass on, but make a small wager on b/c of line moves in other sports. In baseball I dont pay as much attention to line moves right now, I'm still trying to solidify a systematic approach for determining value and after a large number of plays determine what my edge is, THEN I may incorporate baseball line moves into that system. One of the problems with baseball line moves is that if you are playing a lot of dogs then a line move on dogs hurts you, it detracts from value. In spread sports if you lose a number, you can always buy it back, you pay more vig but if your distribution still shows value at -120 then it's worthwhile over time.
I'm tired right now, so I wont elaborate too much. Right now I dont pay attention to line moves in baseball too much, but I've been decent at taking good numbers before the line moves on dogs in the last couple of weeks. I determine a fractional probability of one team beating another and convert it to a moneyline for the majority of baseball games, and compare it to what is offered. If the line moves against me (a dog now pays less than previously) before I get can get down, then generally that is good as far as win% recently, except that a little value is lost. I dont increase a wager b/c of a line move in most cases b/c usually the lost value makes the price less attractive. Sometimes I'll come back and add more to a wager after the line has moved, and usually that is b/c I've taken a break, determined what each game is worth, and formed a strategy for the day. I rationalize about most of the games outside of the obvious numbers, and if I feel another angle adds even more value then I'll put more down on a line even if it has moved. I rarely try to determine who will win a baseball game, I only try to determine what PERCENT of the time a team will win, quite a few times the dog should be favored.
After this baseball season I may add line moves as and add'l angle similar to what I do in basketball and football. In football I probably look at 20 or more different things for each game, after a while half of it is subconscious. One of the ways that I use line moves in football is looking at who the public likes. A lot of line moves are from sharp action, a lot of line moves are from the public and it takes a while to know the difference. When the public is on one team in a big way and the line moves the OPPOSITE direction (luring more of the public, or a 'trap') fading the public action has been profitable for several years. But each situation is different and I dont do it blindly, but usually I already like the team opposite of who the public likes so when I see this situation I may go a bit higher, and I usually get ready to risk more on the 2nd half as well. A lot of people will say that there is no value fading the public, but those people dont know who the public is on, you need to book and have access to book info from several different regions to know for sure. During the regular season I do have plays that I would normally pass on, but make a small wager on b/c of line moves in other sports. In baseball I dont pay as much attention to line moves right now, I'm still trying to solidify a systematic approach for determining value and after a large number of plays determine what my edge is, THEN I may incorporate baseball line moves into that system. One of the problems with baseball line moves is that if you are playing a lot of dogs then a line move on dogs hurts you, it detracts from value. In spread sports if you lose a number, you can always buy it back, you pay more vig but if your distribution still shows value at -120 then it's worthwhile over time.
"if I feel another angle adds even more value then I'll put more down on a line even if it has moved. I rarely try to determine who will win a baseball game, I only try to determine what PERCENT of the time a team will win, quite a few times the dog should be favored."
It's all about the value of the bet, not necessarily who will win.
Thanks much for offering your thoughts at a time when you are tired.
It's all about the value of the bet, not necessarily who will win.
Thanks much for offering your thoughts at a time when you are tired.
it's easier for me to talk about line moves in other sports since I have more experience with them. In baseball the vast majority of moves on lines under -160 or so are from sharp action, on really large moneylines the moves are not nearly as significant. For example a move from -210 to -230 is not nearly as sig. as a move from +160 to +145 value-wise. I'm not speaking very clearly today, but the oddsmakers are not really worried about getting beat by public action, they have an advantage over them. But people with sharp numbers have an advantage over the book and the book will sharpen their lines according to that action a lot of times, or they run the risk of getting pounded on that line over and over again. A lot of books want as much one-sided square action as possible, this varies just as we are different types of bettors. Bodog seems to move their line with public action, Pinnacle seems to move their line the opposite way to invite more of it a lot of times, just as an example (Pinnacle just sticks with their solid # more often). This doesnt happen on every event, some lines are stronger than others, and bookmakers have to line every side and total. On some games they hope to get the vig, on some games they like their number, stick with it, and get more than 60% public money. I have been booking a little just to see how this theory plays out, my lines are ridiculous a lot of times when compared to offshore #'s but so far, so good. For example, I was offering NYY -145 over BAL Ponson the other day. I dont take very large wagers, and very few even look at matchups they just want to hear what the lines are and think about it for 5 seconds.
SD -1.5 +300 for .1%
TB +182 for .2%
TB -1.5 +276 for .1%
KC -1.5 +104 for .3%
CLE +108 for .3%
CLE -1.5 +197 for .1%
MON +108 for .2%
MON -1.5 +205 for .1%
COL -1.5 +102 for .3%
CIN -1.5 +148 for .2%
SD -1.5 +300 for .1%
TB +182 for .2%
TB -1.5 +276 for .1%
KC -1.5 +104 for .3%
CLE +108 for .3%
CLE -1.5 +197 for .1%
MON +108 for .2%
MON -1.5 +205 for .1%
COL -1.5 +102 for .3%
CIN -1.5 +148 for .2%
another thing about line moves is that books must always be concerned about getting scalped or middled which is one of the worst case scenarios for them. And this is on both sides and totals. Books make mistakes just as we do, and there is a fine line between pissing a book off by taking advantage of a mistake, and pounding a line that offers a ton of value. There are times when a book won't move a number anymore than it has already b/c they know they are being watched closely for a middle opp. or scalp. These are things that I consider about line moves, and quite a few times you will see a line move one way all day then all of a sudden move the opposite way very quickly as scalpers and middlers act on the short term margin. It's possible to move a line one way in order to get a better number on the other side and come back this way for even more. I seem to see this more in college sports. I dont move, or scalp. I middle a little bit, but typically weight one side and then come back the other way at DIFFERENT books (and at different times) when I feel the number(s) in between have a high enough expectancy to land exactly for a +EV. Mostly on NBA sides. Most books dont just settle for vig on even action, why would they?
