MLB for the week of 7/21

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ATX

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SF +137 for .2%
SF -1.5 +270 for .1%

ST LOU under 9 +125 for .3%

I decided to pass on SD, but I think they are the right side.
 

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I once spent $500 on a vacation for a week and had a good time. Later that same year I lost $500 during a month of betting and had a great time. So I feel I got my entertainment value out of both.

Gambling sure makes the games more interesting. Add in the fact that sometimes I make money so I figure I'm ahead when I do.
 

ATX

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I can see gambling as a healthy hobby. If you want to do it recreationally just limit yourself to 10$ a wager, no more. You will still be part of the action, and if you track your results after a couple of seasons you may decide to start trying to build a little bankroll and go from there. It's better to start that way. You dont want to take 100K and decide to bet 10 dimes a side starting out. One needs to know the market, and learn to recognize value, and it's MUCH better to LEARN when the money is easily replaceable. I've been spending at least 60 hours a week for 3 or 4 years and I still learn something new every day. I still make mistakes, I'm pretty pissed at myself for taking CIN tonite when I liked MIL to begin with, but with over 15 wagers for the day I can get away with a couple of mistakes, a lot of what I do is simply intuition- sometimes, no a lot of times I'm simply dead wrong, but I try to learn from these experiences.

Researching the games is good for the mind, it helps one think for themself.
 

ATX

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7/21 -.181%
7/22 +.434%

NYM +175 for .3%

yesterday all of my most heavily vested wagers lost, but I still showed profit- which is the purpose of this system. My first goal is 3% a week/12% a month over the course of each year. Since I'm not as familiar with baseball as I am in other sports, I would be happy with half of that in this sport.
 

ATX

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HOU -209 parlayed to over 8.5 -129 for .2%
pays .324%
 

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I never get mad at myself when I learn something from my mistakes. I figure I'll end up ahead in the long-run when I do learn so I'm happy about that. I look at losing a bad bet as an investment in the future.
icon_cool.gif


Keep up the good work.
 

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ATX- I think that you are a great handicapper. Any chance of you agreeing to letting TRK track your plays to help out the challenge. Two guys left the challenge. Space and I agreed to be tracked and I think you could help a lot of guys out by agreeing also.
 

ATX

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the only problems that I have with letting TRK monitor...

I cant/dont/wont post every day, sometimes I dont get behind a computer for a week or two at a time.

I'm not sure how he would track me, since I wager as a percentage of bankroll. "Units" seem to have varying definitions from person to person, the only thing that makes sense to me is wagering as a percentage of bankroll- it's black and white, and when it's gone, it's really gone. I guess he could use .1% as a unit for me, but I do wager as much as 1.5% on baseball games, and more than 2% on other sports- up to the mammoth 6% NFL playoff games (when I'm up over 100% for that sport) and other highly valued events such as the Spurs to win it all. I dont want people to get the impression that this is chasing, or that chasing is a good strategy. People that are more familiar with my strategy know this, but someone fresh off the street may not, and the varying "unit" plays by different handicappers is VERY confusing. I strongly feel that a switch to monitoring by percentage of bankroll per play would solve many problems and also be logistically simple.

I dont like contests. They interfere with handicapping. I look at the sports market as a contest between me and the bookmaker ONLY (or the general public if you want to look at it that way). I still look for handicappers that are better than I am to learn from, but most are fairly tight-lipped. You are either going forward or backward, satisfaction leads to downfall.

I wouldnt mind my plays being tracked by a third party. But I dont have time to backtrack each day and make sure that the recordkeeping is 100% accurate. I have so many plays that it wouldnt make much difference anyway, but it's hard enough for me to make sure that ALL my POSTED plays are 100% accurate, as I do have wagers that I cant post when I'm elsewhere, and TRK may not want to add quite a bit of work to his already monumental task.

Probably the main drawback for me would be having my plays so unavoidably visible. I feel bad having losing days, and I would feel a lot worse thinking that other people lost money because of me. The way it is now, people dont have to see who I'm on- if they dont open my thread they will never know. My "week of" posts are more a diary than anything else, and it's easier than sending/updating emails all the time. I'm a bit worried that people would pick and choose using a consensus approach, and that generally doesnt work so well, my strong plays from yesterday are a great example. Among other things, my strategy is to try to avoid long losing streaks, so far it has worked better than expected. maybe more later...
 

ATX

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today I see more value than I've seen the last couple of days. No BIG plays, I just see a little more value in a lot of the games. I'm in the process of finalizing everything, but I'm on:

FLA
CHI
PITT
AZ
TEX
BAL (slightly less)
TOR RL (less, not for sure tho)
KC (slightly less)

around the .5% to .6% range
 

ATX

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NYM -1.5 +296 for .2%

FLA +135 for .4%
FLA -1.5 +199 for .2%
 

ATX

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PITT -101 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +149 for .2%

CUBS -105 for .3%
CUBS -1.5 +199 for .2%
 

ATX

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TOR -1.5 +126 for .3%

BAL +195 for .3%
BAL -1.5 +311 for .2%
 

ATX

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BOS -1.5 -112 for .3%

Parlay BOS -1.5 to HOU -1.5 for .1%
 

ATX

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TEX +144 for .3%
TEX -1.5 +256 for .2%

Texas -1.5 at +256 is the best value I see today.
 

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