MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

10 surprising park factors

Debunking myths about some notable stadiums to help your fantasy team

By Todd Zola
Mastersball.com

The terms pitchers' park and hitters' park are bandied about quite cavalierly when it comes to discussing players' expectations. There are a number of parks that are perceived to be helpful for pitchers and others favorable for hitters. For the most part, perceptions are reality. However, there are misperceptions about some parks that may lead to faulty conclusions, leading to a negative impact on how fantasy teams are constructed at the draft and managed during the season.
In a moment, 10 ballpark misnomers will be revealed which may be surprising and result in a reevaluation of the expected performance of both hitters and pitchers. Some players' market values are artificially inflated based on some flawed assumptions. These players should be avoided, at least at their going rate. Others are unfairly docked value based on an error in judgment; they can be acquired at a price below their actual potential and deployed in season in situations previously assumed to be too risky.
Before these 10 myths are unveiled, a brief review of park effects will be presented along with some more general observations. A park effect is quantified by means of a park factor. Park factors can be determined for every statistic. The two most common applicable park factors for fantasy baseball purposes are run factors and home run factors. However, there are some rather esoteric factors that can come into play, specifically strikeouts, walks and errors.
<offer>A park factor of 100 denotes a neutral park. If the park inflates a particular statistic by 10 percent, the park factor would be 110. Similarly, if the park deflates that stat, the corresponding factor is 90. By means of example, if a player were to hit 20 homers in a neutral park, he would hit 22 in a park with a factor of 110 but only 18 in a park with a factor of 90, since 10 percent of 20 is two.

There are different variations of the park factor calculation, but the general idea is to sum up how the team in question did at home and on the road did with the statistic of choice and compare it to how their opponents did while visiting the club in question and while playing host to the club. The intent is to flesh out the bias of the quality of the team's hitters and pitchers, so the only factor is the park.
The fleshing out of bias is not just reserved for the quality of the team's offense and pitching staffs. Any time you do a normalization of this nature, all ancillary aspects should be the same in both the numerator and denominator. This encompasses weather, the quality of opponent, the handedness of opponent, etc. And while the season is a long, 26-week grind, it is actually not long enough to completely flesh out all the bias. As such, park factors are conventionally calculated as three-year averages. Truth be told, even this does not do the job completely, but it adjusts the factor so it is far more representative than using a single-year value.
One more point that needs to be made is park factors do not impact each player equally. Some parks have quirks in their dimensions that play to the strength of certain hitters and the weakness of others. Some parks are short down the line but deep to the alleys and center. If a hitter hits a lot of balls in the air down the line, he may find what is an unfriendly to others really to his liking. Similarly, a ground ball pitcher is not going to benefit as much from a big park as much as a fly ball pitcher. But a fly ball pitcher is not going to benefit from a park that is manicured to help support groundballs by growing the grass tall, etc.
With this as a backdrop, it is time to divulge 10 things you may not know about park factors.
1. Don't be afraid to start your pitchers in Cincinnati and Philadelphia

The key point here is the run factor is most important for pitchers, while the home run factor is most important for hitters. Both the Great American Ballpark (GAB) in Cincinnati and Citizens Bank Park (CBP) in Philadelphia inflate home runs, but the park is overall close to neutral for runs. The GAB's run factor is 102 while CBP's is 101.
The GAB's home run index is 122, but its doubles index is 94 and its triples index is 93. It is the depression of the other extra base hits that renders the GAB close to neutral for run scoring. This suggests that most fly balls that do not clear the fence get caught, as opposed to bigger parks where the outfielders have to cover more ground. The profile of pitchers that are safest to start in the GAB are obviously those that induce ground balls, but the low run factor says not to be overly concerned about fly ball pitchers, especially if their walk rate is low and/or their strikeout rate is high.
The interesting part about CBP's run factor being so lower than perceived is the home run factor is also lower than expected, at only 103. CBP has the reputation of being a very good hitter's park, but at least for the past three seasons, the data says it is barely a hitters' park. While the quality-of-staff bias is supposed to be normalized, the Philadelphia Phillies hurlers are so good, it may just be that bias influences the home run factor to the point it is lower than it would be with lesser arms. But even so, it is not nearly as nasty to pitchers as is perceived.

2. The Green Monster giveth and it taketh away

The perception is that Fenway Park is a hitters' paradise. This is substantiated by a run factor of 111, which is actually greater than Yankee Stadium's 108. However, extra home runs are not the reason for inflated run scoring, as the overall home run factor is 91. That's right; power is actually depressed in Fenway Park. Breaking this down further shows left-handed power is depressed 19 percent while right-handed power is playing neutral. It is not surprising that lefties have a hard time clearing the fence in right field, as the distance to gap is longer than in most parks. Additionally, while the Pesky Pole is a mere 302 feet away, it juts out very sharply, so straight away right field is amongst the deepest in either league. What could be surprising to some is that left field in Boston plays just as if a regular fence was a regular distance away, though don't tell that to anyone that still remembers Bucky Dent. What the 37-foot high wall does is turn would be fly ball outs into two-base hits, as the doubles factor is a whopping 130.
The combination of these factors really helps explain the season Adrian Gonzalez turned in last season. While it is true that left-handed power is severely reduced in Petco Park 37 percent, more so than in Fenway, it is not as if Fenway will significantly help Gonzalez in terms of homers. On the other hand, the first baseman discovered very quickly that fly balls the other way often caught tin and not leather, so Gonzalez hit a bunch of wall-ball singles and doubles, which inflated his BABIP. There are some suggesting that Gonzalez's power never came around in 2011 because of his offseason shoulder surgery, and that he is going to hit the 40 homers expected when he was first traded to Boston, while his BABIP is going to regress and his average drop. And they may be right. But it can also be argued that the power is not going to be as bountiful as expected and his BABIP may not regress as much as expected.
3. The humidor can only help so much

There is a perception that since the game balls used in Colorado have been stored in a humidor prior to use, the offense has significantly curtailed. The truth is Coors Field is still the most hitter-friendly venue in either league with only Rangers Ballpark remotely close. Coors inflated runs 32 percent and homers 25 percent. The next closest in runs is Texas with 119.
One quirk about Coors Field that doesn't get the attention it deserves is the fact that the thin air not only helps the ball carry, it influences the break on pitches. This can be reflected by a strikeout factor of 87. This could bode well for Ubaldo Jimenez and any pitcher leaving Colorado. To wit, Jimenez sported a K/9 of 7.5 at home but 8.9 on the road during his tenure with the Rockies. This difference is further exaggerated when you remember that in general, home skills are increased 10 percent over road skills.
4. Comerica Park is not the pitchers' haven some think

In fact, run scoring is slightly inflated in Detroit, with a run factor of 102. Overall, homers are deflated 3 percent, though the lefty-righty split is significant. Right handed batters enjoy a slight bump with a home run factor of 102, while left handed hitters are penalized with an 89 factor.
Something quirky about Comerica Park is strikeouts are deflated, though that does not seem to bother Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, and actually makes what Verlander did last season all the more impressive. Similar to the Jimenez data above, Verlander also has whiffed more away than home, with respective K/9 rates of 8.4 and 8.2. The reason the strikeout rates may be decreased is that Comerica Park has a great deal of foul territory meaning pop ups are caught, whereas elsewhere they could be strike one or strike two, on the way to strike three. Even though they are ground ball pitchers thus do not induce as many foul pop ups as others, Doug Fister's efforts to maintain the strikeout rate he displayed after coming over from Seattle, and Rick Porcello's need to fan more hitters are certainly not helped any.
5. Safeco Field is not so bad … if you bat left-handed

Sorry Jesus Montero, this does not apply to you, but your buddies Mike Carp, Justin Smoak and even Dustin Ackley may find this enlightening. Overall, Safeco Field is still a pitchers' park, depressing runs by 13 percent. Part of this is right-handed power is crushed by 25 percent. However, left-handers play in a park that actually boosts power by 1 percent. Granted, this is not much, but if you are hoping Justin Smoak can finally show display the potential we have been or are looking at Carp as a cheap source of power, you may be rewarded.
6. AT&T Park is not so bad … if bat right-handed

The message here is not to trade in your Brandon Belt baseball card for Brett Pill. The home run index for those aiming for the Coke bottle and huge mitt in left field is 96, just a little below neutral. However, for those trying to put the ball into McCovey Cove in right, the index is 68

7. Busch Stadium is the least talked about pitchers' park in the league

Citi Field's dimensions are so unfair that they are bringing in, and lowering the fences for the 2012 campaign. If that's the case, then riddle me this; where's the uproar for the new Busch Stadium? Citi Field's run index is 91, compared to 92 for Busch Stadium. The home run factor for left-handed hitters in Citi Field is 90, which is better than the 86 in Busch Stadium. For right-handers, it is even worse, 78 in New York and 73 in St. Louis. Maybe there was another reason Albert Pujols left St. Louis; the pursuit of the home record.
8. Miller park is a hitters' park … not

Well, sort of anyway. Miller Park is another locale that has opposite home run and run factors. Power hitters still benefit from Miller Park, as the lefty homer factor is 116 while the righty factor is 109. However, run scoring is diminished 3 percent. This means starting opposing pitchers in Milwaukee are a viable option, especially if they can keep the ball down.

9. Matt Moore will win the Cy Young

OK, it may be a bit of hyperbole, but the point is he is certainly in the right place. The only venues that depress run scoring as much or more than Tropicana Field are Petco Park and Safeco Field, two places widely recognized as pitchers' havens. The respective run indices are 81 for Petco Park and 87 for both Safeco Field and The Trop. Home runs are slightly decreased in Tampa, with a 98 factor for left-handers and 91 for right-handers. The key here may not be so much for opposing pitchers, but for the home-team hurlers. Conventional wisdom is that Jeremy Hellickson will see his ERA correct from last season as his rates regresses, but perhaps the damage may not be as severe as some naysayers may believe. There are some that are skeptical James Shields will be able to maintain his elevated skills, maybe the park will help him. Even Kyle Farnsworth may benefit and continue to be one of the better closers in the American League.
10. Beware of Miami Marlins pitchers

One of the biggest questions in fantasy baseball is how the new Marlins Park will play. While I can't address that here, what can be addressed is a curious idiosyncrasy where both walks and strikeouts were significantly inflated in Sun Life Stadium. Granted, any staff with Ricky Nolasco is apt to defy conventional analysis, but the fact remains walks were increased 16 percent and strikeouts 14 percent for the then-Florida Marlins while at home. If this was indeed a true park effect, Josh Johnson, Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, who all have pretty good control, could be hurt more by the drop in strikeouts than the drop in walks.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Spring Training Daily

Well, at least it could have been worse.



Corey Hart will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and be sidelined for the next 3-4 weeks. The procedure was recommended after an MRI Sunday, which was called for after Hart complained of soreness in the knee and then dealt with subsequent swelling. The good news is that he at least avoided a more serious operation that the Brewers were worried he might need.



"The tough part is that he will miss the at-bats here," assistant general manager Gord Ash told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "But it could have been worse."



The procedure almost certainly ensures that Hart will miss the entire Cactus League schedule for a second straight season, as he sat out all of last year’s games with a strained oblique. He spent nearly all of April on the disabled list last year, and there’s a good chance he’ll need a DL stint again this year. Hart’s injury might be close to or all the way healed by the time Opening Day rolls around, but he’ll need to knock off the rust, making a rehab stint in the minors seem likely.



If Hart indeed does begin the season on the DL, the biggest beneficiaries to more playing time figure to be Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki. Gomez could handle center field, shifting To view updated projections for Hart and nearly 1,000 others, check out the 2012 Rotoworld Baseball Draft Guide. It’s chock full of player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, cheat sheets, expert mock drafts and much, much more.



Davis ailing again



It’s obviously encouraging that he feels good now, but, it’s always possible things could get worse. Conor Jackson missed most of the 2009 season with a severe case of the disease. Due to the uncertainty of the ailment, it makes Davis a bit riskier from a fantasy perspective.



Howard has a setback



When Ryan Howard developed a small cyst of fluid near the surgical wound for his Achilles surgery, Phillies general manager Howard will be in a walking boot for up to the next 10 days, and he’s also been put on antibiotics to combat the infection. Even after the walking boot is removed, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be ready to resume baseball activities immediately. Amaro is now saying the first baseman "could be backed up for a while."



"I don't know when he's going to start baseball activities," Amaro said. "I don't have any idea. I don't have any time frame one way or another. Hopefully he can get the boot off as soon as possible and we can be sure. We're not going to do anything with him unless we're sure the infection is out. He could be backed up for a while. I don't know. I really don't know. I don't have any time frame."



The Phillies have been targeting a return sometime in May for the former National League MVP, but that timetable is now in real jeopardy. It’s too early at this point to project a new timetable, but these recent developments figure to push the date back at least a couple weeks.



Crawford to get wrist checked out




Once the doctors have checked Crawford out, a rehab schedule will be set up for the 30-year-old. Although Crawford had suggested prior to the setback that he would be ready for Opening Day, Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine has expressed caution all along. Obviously, now we would expect the skipper to use even more pause with the four-time All-Star.



Prior to the wrist surgery and subsequent setback, Crawford was looking like a prime bounce-back candidate in fantasy for the 2012 season. And, although power isn’t the biggest part of his game – the area usually most affected by those coming back from wrist surgery – the injury concern should make owners pump the breaks on any thoughts that he could return to being an elite fantasy outfielder.



Will Cespedes make Opening Day roster?

​

When the A’s handed

Yoenis Cespedes a four-year, $36 million deal, it was natural to assume that anyone earning that kind of money would be plugged into the starting lineup right away. It may still end up happening, but general manager Billy Beane isn’t promising the Cuban outfielder anything.



"Whether or not he’s on active Opening Day roster remains to be seen,” Beane said at Cespedes’ press conference Sunday. “We’ll play that by ear.”



But, while Beane is playing his cards close to the vest, two sources have told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that the team has "planned all along" for Cespedes to make the team "unless his spring performance were to be extremely poor."



We’ll have to wait and see how Cespedes looks in spring training, but the reality is that he could probably use at least a few dozen at-bats in the minor leagues. We tend to agree with Slusser, though, that it would be an upset if he’s not on the roster for Opening Day. The plan appears to be to stick Cespedes in center field and have him flanked by Coco Crisp in left field and likely a combination of Seth Smith and Josh Reddick in right field.​

 

[HacheMan]

Posey Close to Spring Debut

Spring training news goes in cycles, doesn't it? Just about two weeks ago, we were bombarded with features about various players who were in the best shape of their life. Now? The injuries come flooding in. It's just the circle of life. Of baseball news, anyway. And I'm pretty thrilled it's back.

Ryan Boyer got us started yesterday, but I wanted to welcome everyone to another year of our spring training coverage here at Rotoworld. Like last year, we'll have these reports every weekday leading up to the start of the season, going over injuries, position battles and whatever else is happening around MLB. Think of them as a mini Daily Dose. An appetizer for the main course. That's essentially what spring training is, right?

Posey Could Make Spring Debut This Weekend

Buster Posey hasn't played in a live game since fracturing his leg and suffering torn ligaments in his ankle in a horrific home plate collision last May 25 with Marlins' outfielder Scott Cousins. He's hoping to change that real soon.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy told Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com yesterday that Posey could make his spring debut by the end of the week, likely as the team's designated hitter. When he'll be cleared to play depends on how much progress he makes with sliding and running curves over the next couple of days.

Posey did try sliding yesterday for the first time since his injury. However, Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News writes that he "didn't do many" and "it wasn't anywhere close to full speed." He has also yet to do any hard cuts while running around the bases. The Giants are being extra cautious here, but Posey told Baggarly yesterday that his surgically-repaired ankle is feeling the best it has all spring.

Assuming Posey doesn't have any significant setbacks with his rehab, he obviously has the potential to be an elite fantasy catcher. The Giants are already planning to play him at first base a couple of days a week as a way to keep his potent bat in the lineup and limit his workload behind the plate. It doesn't appear as though the Giants will cut bait with Aubrey Huff, who homered last night, so one wonders how much playing time will be available for Brandon Belt. With the outfield pretty much set with Nate Schierholtz, Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, it's not outlandish to say that Belt could begin the season in the minors.



To view projections for Posey, Belt and nearly 1,000 other players, pick up Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. This thing is stocked with player profiles, customizable and printable cheat sheets, tiered rankings at each position, prospect rankings, exclusive content and much, much more. Our award-winning draft guide is also available on the iPhone and iPad this year.



Marcum Shut Down With Sore Shoulder

Shaun Marcum skipped a start last March due to shoulder stiffness, but ended up starting the season on the active roster and posting a 2.21 ERA over six starts in April. The Brewers are crossing their fingers they can be so lucky again this year.

Marcum dealt with shoulder inflammation last week and felt continued discomfort while throwing over the past two days. The Brewers made the decision Monday to shut him down for 2-3 days and though the team wouldn't confirm it, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suspects that he's being rested after receiving a cortisone injection.

Marcum won't make his spring debut as scheduled on Saturday, so it's unlikely he'll be fully stretched out when the regular season begins, but Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told reporters Monday that he would be satisfied if the 30-year-old right-hander is in the range of 75 pitches by the end of the exhibition schedule.

Marcum, who was acquired from Toronto for Brett Lawrie in December of 2010, posted a 3.53 ERA with the Brewers last season while tossing a career-high 200 2/3 innings. He should be a useful starter in mixed leagues this season if he's healthy, but hopefully the way he wore down late last year (5.17 ERA in September and 14.90 ERA over three postseason starts) was more a matter of fatigue than something physical.

Johnson Makes First Start Since Last May

Josh Johnson threw 41 pitches (25 for strikes) over 1 2/3 scoreless innings yesterday against the Cardinals during his first game appearance since being placed on the disabled list last May with right shoulder inflammation. He retired the first five batters in order (including two strikeouts), but gave up a single, a double and a walk before leaving the game with the bases loaded.

Johnson averaged between 90-92 mph with his fastball and topped out at 94 mph. While he wasn't thrilled with his curveball, he managed to mix in a nasty 87 mph changeup to catch Matt Holliday off guard and get him swinging to end the first inning. He told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post after the game that his shoulder "feels great" and it was good to get this first start "out of the way."

Depending on how Johnson's shoulder responds to Monday's outing, his next start could happen Sunday against the Mets. There's still some mystery to what exactly was ailing Johnson last year, as doctors were unable to find any structural damage in his shoulder, so there's plenty of boom or bust potential here from a fantasy perspective. We'll be tracking his progress closely here this spring.

Freeman Expected To Play Tuesday

There was some concern that Freddie Freeman could miss as much as two weeks after he suffered a partially dislocated right kneecap while doing pick drills at first base early last week, but David O'Brien of the Altanta Journal-Constitution reports that he's scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut Tuesday against the Nationals.

Freeman resumed taking batting practice over the weekend and hit a long home run which broke the window of a parked car beyond the right field fence during a workout Monday, so it's safe to say he's no longer feeling any ill effects. He's only expected to stay in for two at-bats Tuesday, but that's not all that unusual for regulars at this point of the spring.

Freeman, 22, batted .282/.346/.448 with 21 home runs, 76 RBI and a .795 OPS last season, finishing second to teammate Craig Kimbrel for the National League's Rookie of the Year award. He figures to be useful in mixed leagues again this season, but the lefty swinging first baseman will likely come at a premium price in NL-only leagues now that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are in the American League.

 

[HacheMan]

10 surprising park factors

Debunking myths about some notable stadiums to help your fantasy team


By Todd Zola
Mastersball.com

The terms pitchers' park and hitters' park are bandied about quite cavalierly when it comes to discussing players' expectations. There are a number of parks that are perceived to be helpful for pitchers and others favorable for hitters. For the most part, perceptions are reality. However, there are misperceptions about some parks that might lead to faulty conclusions, leading to a negative impact on how fantasy teams are constructed at the draft and managed during the season.
In a moment, 10 ballpark misnomers will be revealed that might be surprising and result in a re-evaluation of the expected performance of hitters and pitchers. Some players' market values are artificially inflated based on some flawed assumptions. These players should be avoided, at least at their going rate. Others are unfairly docked value based on an error in judgment; they can be acquired at a price below their actual potential and deployed in season in situations previously assumed to be too risky.
Before these 10 myths are unveiled, a brief review of park effects will be presented along with some more general observations. A park effect is quantified by means of a park factor. Park factors can be determined for every statistic. The two most common applicable park factors for fantasy baseball purposes are run factors and home run factors. However, there are some rather esoteric factors that can come into play, specifically strikeouts, walks and errors.
<offer>A park factor of 100 denotes a neutral park. If the park inflates a particular statistic by 10 percent, the park factor would be 110. Similarly, if the park deflates that stat the same amount, the corresponding factor is 90. By means of example, if a player were to hit 20 homers in a neutral park, he would hit 22 in a park with a factor of 110 but only 18 in a park with a factor of 90 because 10 percent of 20 is 2.

There are different variations of the park factor calculation, but the general idea is to sum up how a team did at home and on the road with the statistic of choice and compare that with how its opponents did while visiting the club in question and while playing host to the club. The intent is to flush out the bias of the quality of the team's hitters and pitchers so that the only factor is the park.
The fleshing out of bias is not reserved just for the quality of the team's offense and pitching staffs. Any time you do a normalization of this nature, all ancillary aspects should be the same in the numerator and the denominator. This encompasses weather, the quality of opponent, the handedness of opponent, etc. And although the season is a long, 26-week grind, it still is not long enough to flush out all the bias. As such, park factors conventionally are calculated as three-year averages. Truth be told, even this does not do the job completely, but it adjusts the factor so it is far more representative than using a single-year value.
One more point that needs to be made is park factors do not affect each player equally. Some parks have quirks in their dimensions that play to the strength of certain hitters and the weakness of others. Some parks are short down the line but deep to the alleys and center. If a hitter hits a lot of balls in the air down the line, he might find that what is an unfriendly park to others is really to his liking. Similarly, a ground ball pitcher is not going to benefit as much from a big park as a fly ball pitcher. But a fly ball pitcher is not going to benefit from a park that is manicured to help support ground balls by growing the grass tall, etc.
With this as a backdrop, it is time to divulge 10 things you might not know about park factors.
1. Don't be afraid to start your pitchers in Cincinnati and Philadelphia

The key point here is that the run factor is most important for pitchers but the home run factor is most important for hitters. Both the Great American Ballpark (GAB) in Cincinnati and Citizens Bank Park (CBP) in Philadelphia inflate home runs, but each park is close to neutral for runs. The GAB's run factor is 102, and CBP's is 101.
The GAB's home run index is 122, but its doubles index is 94 and its triples index is 93. It is the depression of the other extra-base hits that renders the GAB close to neutral for run scoring. This suggests that most fly balls that do not clear the fence get caught, as opposed to bigger parks where the outfielders have to cover more ground. The profile of pitchers who are safest to start in the GAB obviously includes those who induce ground balls, but the low run factor says not to be overly concerned about fly ball pitchers, especially if their walk rate is low and/or their strikeout rate is high.
The interesting part about CBP's run factor being so much lower than perceived is that the home run factor is also lower than expected, at only 103. CBP has the reputation of being a very good hitters' park, but -- at least for the past three seasons -- the data say it is barely a hitters' park. Although the quality-of-staff bias is supposed to be normalized, the Philadelphia Phillies hurlers are so good that it might just be that bias influences the home run factor to the point it is lower than it would be with lesser arms. But even so, it is not nearly as nasty to pitchers as is perceived.

2. The Green Monster giveth and it taketh away

The perception is that Fenway Park is a hitters' paradise. This is substantiated by a run factor of 111, which is even greater than Yankee Stadium's 108. However, extra home runs are not the reason for inflated run scoring, as the overall home run factor is 91. That's right; power is actually depressed in Fenway Park. Breaking this down further shows left-handed power is depressed 19 percent and right-handed power is playing neutral. It is not surprising that lefties have a hard time clearing the fence in right field, as the distance to gap is longer than in most parks. Additionally, although the Pesky Pole is a mere 302 feet away, it juts out very sharply, so straight-away right field is among the deepest in either league. What could be surprising to some is that left field in Boston plays just as if a regular fence were a regular distance away, although don't tell that to anyone who still remembers Bucky Dent. What the 37-foot high wall does is turn would-be fly ball outs into two-base hits, as the doubles factor is a whopping 130.
The combination of these factors really helps explain the season Adrian Gonzalez turned in last season. Although it is true that left-handed power is reduced severely in Petco Park 37 percent, it is not as if Fenway will help Gonzalez significantly in terms of homers. On the other hand, the first baseman discovered very quickly that fly balls the other way often caught tin rather than leather, so Gonzalez hit a bunch of wall-ball singles and doubles, which inflated his BABIP. There are some suggesting that Gonzalez's power never came around in 2011 because of his offseason shoulder surgery and that he is going to hit the 40 homers expected when he was first traded to Boston, and his BABIP is going to regress and his average drop. And they might be right. But it also can be argued that the power is not going to be as bountiful as expected and that his BABIP might not regress as much as expected.
3. The humidor can help only so much

There is a perception that, because the game balls used in Colorado have been stored in a humidor before use, the offense has been curtailed significantly. The truth is Coors Field is still the most hitter-friendly venue in either league, with only Rangers Ballpark remotely close. Coors inflated runs 32 percent and homers 25 percent. The next closest in runs is Texas with 119.
One quirk about Coors Field that doesn't get the attention it deserves is the fact that the thin air not only helps the ball carry but also influences the break on pitches. This can be reflected by a strikeout factor of 87. This could bode well for Ubaldo Jimenez and any pitcher leaving Colorado. To wit, Jimenez sported a K/9 of 7.5 at home but 8.9 on the road in his tenure with the Rockies. This difference is further exaggerated when you remember that, in general, home skills are increased 10 percent over road skills.
4. Comerica Park is not the pitchers' haven some think

In fact, run scoring is slightly inflated in Detroit, with a run factor of 102. Overall, homers are deflated 3 percent, although the lefty-righty split is significant. Right-handed batters enjoy a slight bump with a home run factor of 102, and left-handed hitters are penalized with an 89 factor.
Something quirky about Comerica Park is that strikeouts are deflated, although that does not seem to bother Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer -- and actually makes what Verlander did last season all the more impressive. Similar to the Jimenez data above, Verlander also has whiffed more away than at home, with respective K/9 rates of 8.4 and 8.2. The reason the strikeout rates might be decreased is that Comerica Park has a great deal of foul territory, meaning pop ups are caught, whereas elsewhere they could be strike one or strike two on the way to strike three. Even though they are ground ball pitchers and thus do not induce as many foul popups as others, Doug Fister's efforts to maintain the strikeout rate he displayed after coming over from Seattle and Rick Porcello's need to fan more hitters certainly are not helped any.
5. Safeco Field is not so bad … if you bat left-handed

Sorry, Jesus Montero, this does not apply to you, but your buddies Mike Carp, Justin Smoak and even Dustin Ackley might find this enlightening. Overall, Safeco Field is still a pitchers' park, depressing runs by 13 percent. Part of this is that right-handed power is crushed by 25 percent. However, left-handers play in a park that actually boosts power by 1 percent. Granted, this is not much, but if you are hoping Smoak can finally display the potential we have seen or are looking at Carp as a cheap source of power, you might be rewarded.
6. AT&T Park is not so bad … if you bat right-handed

The message here is not to trade in your Brandon Belt baseball card for Brett Pill. The home run index for those aiming for the Coke bottle and huge mitt in left field is 96, just a little below neutral. However, for those trying to put the ball into McCovey Cove in right, the index is 68.
7. Busch Stadium is the least talked about pitchers' park in the league

Citi Field's dimensions are so unfair that they are bringing in, and lowering, the fences for the 2012 campaign. That being the case, riddle me this; where's the uproar for the new Busch Stadium? Citi Field's run index is 91, compared with 92 for Busch Stadium. The home run factor for left-handed hitters in Citi Field is 90, which is better than the 86 in Busch Stadium. For right-handers, it is even worse, 78 in New York and 73 in St. Louis. Maybe there was another reason Albert Pujols left St. Louis; the pursuit of the home run record.
8. Miller Park is a hitters' park … not

Well, sort of anyway. Miller Park is another locale that has opposite home run and run factors. Power hitters still benefit from Miller Park, as the lefty homer factor is 116 and the righty factor 109. However, run scoring is diminished 3 percent. This means starting opposing pitchers in Milwaukee are a viable option, especially if they can keep the ball down.

9. Matt Moore will win the Cy Young

OK, it might be a bit of hyperbole, but the point is he is certainly in the right place. The only venues that depress run scoring as much or more than Tropicana Field are Petco Park and Safeco Field, two places widely recognized as pitchers' havens. The respective run indices are 81 for Petco Park and 87 for Safeco Field and the Trop. Home runs are slightly decreased in Tampa, with a 98 factor for left-handers and 91 for right-handers. The key here might not be so much for opposing pitchers but for the home team hurlers. Conventional wisdom is that Jeremy Hellickson will see his ERA correct from last season as his rates regresses, but perhaps the damage might not be as severe as some naysayers might believe. There are some who are skeptical James Shields will be able to maintain his elevated skills, but maybe the park will help him. Even Kyle Farnsworth might benefit and continue to be one of the better closers in the American League.
10. Beware of Miami Marlins pitchers

One of the biggest questions in fantasy baseball is how the new Marlins Park will play. Although I can't address that here, what can be addressed is a curious idiosyncrasy in which walks and strikeouts were significantly inflated in Sun Life Stadium. Granted, any staff with Ricky Nolasco is apt to defy conventional analysis, but the fact remains that walks were increased 16 percent and strikeouts 14 percent for the then-Florida Marlins while at home. If this was indeed a true park effect, Josh Johnson, Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, who all have pretty good control, could be hurt more by the drop in strikeouts than the drop in walks.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

2013 free agents-to-be, by position

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

As we reach the end of the free agency period for 2012, we begin to look ahead at the 2013 free agents-to-be. The numbers next to each player are the current ESPN Fantasy 2012 preseason rankings for each player at his primary position. This is not a comprehensive list, mind you, just the biggest names currently headed for free agency following the season.


Catchers

1. Mike Napoli, Rangers: Napoli reportedly has said he'll test the open market this fall, but given his recent production the Rangers likely will try to keep him around as long as they can.
3. Brian McCann, Braves: Unless he suffers a major injury in 2012, Atlanta will more than likely pick up his $12 million club option.
5. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks: Apparently Montero's contract extension talks have stalled, possibly because Yadier Molina's 5-year, $75 million deal set a new baseline for top-flight players at this position. Montero is a better offensive player than Molina, and Arizona might not be able to afford him.
14. Russell Martin, Yankees: New York obviously thought enough of Martin and his 18-homer, 65-RBI season to trade away Jesus Montero. But the Yanks already have decided to wait to see how Martin does in 2012 before agreeing to the three-year, $27 million deal that Martin likely will ask for.
19. Chris Iannetta, Angels: Let's see how Iannetta does outside Coors Field for a full season. At 28 years old, he is certainly capable of playing well enough to prompt the front office to pick up his $5 million club option.
21. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox: He's 35 right now and probably won't generate much interest at the trade deadline.
22. Ryan Doumit, Twins: A lot will depend on the health of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. If the stars can play the field, Doumit can hang around as the everyday DH.



First basemen


11. Lance Berkman, Cardinals: With Albert Pujols gone, Berkman, who turned 36 this February, should be able to man first base for the Redbirds the next couple years.
17. Carlos Lee, Astros: He's earning $18.5 million this season, so he'll likely have to take a major pay cut if he doesn't want to retire. He could stick around Houston to be the Astros' first full-time DH in 2013 as they move to the American League.
21. Carlos Pena, Rays: After hitting .196 for the Rays in 2010, Tampa Bay liked this guy enough to give him a one-year, $7.25 million deal in January to bring him back to Florida. He turns 34 in May and probably will find a way to stick around with the Rays past this season.
33. James Loney, Dodgers: Although he's only 27, the Dodgers probably won't give Loney a long-term deal, especially if he continues to struggle so badly against lefties (.561 OPS in 2011).
37. Aubrey Huff, Giants: With prospects Brandon Belt and Brett Pill on the roster, the Giants are unlikely to pick up Huff's $10 million club option (there's a $2 million buyout). He's a good candidate to be traded in late July.
40. Adam LaRoche, Nationals: He has a $10 million mutual option with a $1 million buyout. The Nationals likely will go with the latter option if he bats .172 with a .258 slugging percentage like he did in 2011.


Second basemen1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: You gotta believe the Yankees will do everything in their power to make sure the 29-year-old Cano stays in pinstripes for at least the foreseeable future. He has a $15 million club option that likely will be picked up, and the team likely will try to ink him to a long-term deal before he hits the open market.
3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: The Rangers figure to pick up his $10 million club option for 2013 and attempt to sign Kinsler, who turns 30 in June, to a long-term deal before next season.
6. Brandon Phillips, Reds: The front office has said the team is committed to Phillips long term, but he's making $12 million this year, and likely will want a three-year deal worth at least that much per season.
14. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays: He's making $6.375 million in 2012 and still has the coveted power/speed combo to land on a contender, if the Jays aren't one, before this season is over.
26. Orlando Hudson, Padres: It's doubtful Hudson will be a Padre after this season; the club likely won't pick up an $8 million club option for a 35-year-old (in December) with a sub-.700 OPS last year.
31. Maicer Izturis, Angels: He'll likely test the free-agent waters after this year and probably find those waters quite frigid.




Shortstops


11. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers: His remarkable durability (140-plus games in seven straight seasons) and consistency (80-plus RBIs in each of the past four years) should make it a pretty easy decision for Detroit to pick up his $6 million option for 2013.
12. Erick Aybar, Angels: He fits well with the Angels, and the team has gotten solid production out of him. At age 28, chances are good that Aybar will sign a contract extension with the Angels before reaching the free-agent market after this season.
14. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks: Unless he has an All-Star campaign in 2012, which isn't likely with his ankle not yet 100 percent, Arizona likely will part ways with Drew after this season and spend his $10 million mutual option on someone with fewer health question marks.
15. Marco Scutaro, Rockies: He's a free agent-to-be and will turn 37 in October, so you can figure the Rockies will try to get something for him if their playoff hopes are looking dim in late July.
20. Jason Bartlett, Padres: Bartlett has a $5.5 million club option for 2013, which is guaranteed if he reaches 432 plate appearances in 2012. As such, it's quite possible the Padres would try to trade the 32-year-old this season to avoid having to pick up the option.




Third basemen4. David Wright, Mets: The Mets appear destined to have a sub-.500 record this season, and trading Wright, who will turn 30 in December, for some prospects likely would the serve the team well in the long run. If there are no takers, the Mets likely will pick up his $16 million option for 2013.
11. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Youk likely isn't going anywhere. Unless his 2012 is littered with injuries and/or ineffectiveness, he should be back in Boston in 2013 for a semi-reasonable $13 million.
12. Mark Reynolds, Orioles: Baltimore likely won't be in a playoff race anytime soon, so trading away this slugger to a contender makes sense. If the O's do hang on to Reynolds, exercising the 28-year-old's $11 million club option is at least justifiable.
17. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: The emergence of Brett Lawrie and Jose Bautista makes Encarnacion expendable. The question will be if any other team really wants to go after him before the trade deadline.
21. Chipper Jones, Braves: Atlanta has a $7 million club option for 2013 that vests automatically at $9 million if Jones logs 123 games in 2012.
31. Placido Polanco, Phillies: It's possible that he'll stay with Philly as a 37-year-old in 2013, but it's more likely the Phils will pass on his $5.5 million mutual option and take the $1 million buyout.
32. Scott Rolen, Reds: He'll turn 37 in April, and his recent track record indicates he can't be counted on to produce and stay healthy.
34. Ty Wigginton, Phillies: The 34-year-old should stick around the majors for a couple more years, thanks to his power bat and versatility in the field. Barring a disappointing 2012, the Phils probably want to keep him as insurance for their injury-prone infield and pick up his $4 million option at the end of the year.
43. Brandon Inge, Tigers: A $6 million club option seems like way too steep a price for a guy who is coming off a .197/.265/.283 BA/OBP/SLG season (in 2011).




Outfielders


7. Curtis Granderson, Yankees: If he plays in 2012 anything close to the way he did in 2011, the Yankees likely won't nickel-and-dime their star outfielder. They'll keep him for 2013 at $13 million and like it.
11. Michael Bourn, Braves: Bourn doesn't turn 30 until December, but he's likely to have a multiyear contract with Atlanta signed well before his milestone birthday.
14. Josh Hamilton, Rangers: Texas has a ton of money locked up with its multitude of stars, and it wouldn't be too shocking if the team allows the 30-year-old Hamilton, who has had his share of off-field problems, to leave via free agency. He already has inferred that he won't offer a hometown discount when he becomes a free agent.
18. Shane Victorino, Phillies: He originally said he would want a five-year deal from the Phils or he'd walk, but now it appears the two sides could probably settle on a more realistic three-year extension before he becomes a free agent after the 2012 season.
25. B.J. Upton, Rays: He avoided arbitration with a one-year, $7 million deal in January, but if Tampa Bay falls behind the Yankees and Red Sox in 2012, there likely will be plenty of interested parties for the services of this talented 27-year-old.
27. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: He already is making $17 million in 2012, so he'll likely have to take a huge pay cut for 2013. He posted a .645 OPS in 2011 and turns 39 in October.
37. Andre Ethier, Dodgers: Assuming his knee holds up, Ethier could have a fine bounce-back 2012 campaign, which likely would earn him a contract extension during the season.
40. Torii Hunter, Angels: He wants to play two or three more years in LA, but he likely won't do it at the $18 million price tag he currently has. Hunter turns 37 in July.
41. Melky Cabrera, Giants: He's one of the bigger bargains in baseball at $6 million, and he'll make a lot of money somewhere if he posts another .809 OPS season in San Francisco like he did in Kansas City.
42. Nick Swisher, Yankees: With teammates Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson as higher free agent-to-be priorities, the Yankees probably will let Swisher become a free agent after this season unless he checks in at a reasonable price.
46. Angel Pagan, Giants: He'll be looking for a lot more than the $4.85 million he'll make in 2012. However, San Francisco likely will be in a heated pennant race in 2012 and will hang on to their leadoff hitter for the entire season.
55. Carlos Quentin, Padres: He probably didn't figure to be spending a contract year in San Diego … but at least the weather's nice there. San Diego gave him a nice salary bump from $5.05 million to $7.025 million and could ink the 29-year-old to a contract extension before he becomes a free agent.
62. Delmon Young, Tigers: This is a make-or-break season for the 26-year-old Young, who will be paid $6.75 million in 2012. He'll likely spend the entire campaign in the Motor City then test the free-agent waters.
84. Marlon Byrd, Cubs: With stud prospect Brett Jackson waiting for a call-up, Byrd, who turns 35 in August, will most likely be in a different uniform following the trade deadline, trying to help some team make a playoff push.
88. Cody Ross, Red Sox: This was a great signing by Boston (one year, $3 million), and Ross could earn himself a few more years in Boston if he settles in and becomes a good fourth outfielder.




Designated hitters


1. David Ortiz, Red Sox: Boston will pay Ortiz $14.575 million in 2012 and likely will pay top dollar again if he has another .309-29-96 season for the Sox.
6. Travis Hafner, Indians: Tough call here. If you're the Indians and Hafner posts another .811 OPS, you probably have to pick up his $13 million club option, or lose a beloved run producer who is still just 34 years old. But if injuries bite again, the Indians likely will suck it up and buy him out for $2.75 million.
7. Manny Ramirez, Athletics: This season likely will be a one-and-done situation for Ramirez, whose contract is non-guaranteed. And it's doubtful a contender would give up much to get this guy for a stretch run.
8. Jim Thome, Phillies: There just doesn't seem to be a market for 42-year-old pinch-hitters, even those with 600-plus career home runs.




Starting pitchers

8. Cole Hamels, Phillies: Talks have already begun for a contract extension (Hamels wants several years at $20 million per season). Don't expect Hamels to go anywhere.
9. Dan Haren, Angels: He'd probably want to get an extension done before his all-too-common second-half fade, but all signs point toward the Angels picking up his $15.5 million club option for 2013 and then focusing on a long-term deal.
11. Zack Greinke, Brewers: Expect Greinke's name to be bandied about come June as the most highly coveted two-month rental. No matter what happens this year, the 28-year-old should be able to rake in a ton of cash when he becomes a free agent after this season.
14. Matt Cain, Giants: Although contract extension talks have stalled for the moment, the Giants don't have any plans to part with this tremendous 27-year-old hurler.
15. James Shields, Rays: Many teams reportedly have asked what it would take to acquire Shields, and Tampa's asking price has been way too high for any serious negotiations to take place. Unless he reverts back to his 2010 season (5.18 ERA), the Rays likely will pick up his $9 million club option for 2013 and then figure out whether to trade him.
34. Shaun Marcum, Brewers: Assuming Zack Greinke bolts, Milwaukee will need to keep Marcum around to anchor the staff alongside Yovani Gallardo. Marcum is making $7.725 million this year, and barring injury/ineffectiveness, he'll probably end up making about the same (or more) money next year.
41. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins: At this point, Miami is not going to part with a pitcher who is hitting his prime -- Sanchez just turned 28 in February -- and coming off a 202-strikeout season.
42. Tim Hudson, Braves: It all depends on how his back holds up, but it's doubtful Atlanta is going to pick up his $9 million club option after the season ends.
44. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees: Kuroda inked a one-year, $10 million deal with a full no-trade clause, indicating that New York believes Kuroda can still be a top-flight starter at age 37.
47. Scott Baker, Twins: Assuming his elbow injury is as minor as reported, Minnesota will most likely exercise his $9.25 million option and then worry about losing him after 2013.
49. Ervin Santana, Angels: Los Angeles spent a ton of money this past offseason and would likely love to unload Santana's $11.2 million salary for 2012. There's little chance the team would pick up his $13 million club option for 2013.
53. Colby Lewis, Rangers: After losing C.J. Wilson, the Rangers likely won't part with Lewis unless he has a disastrous 2012 season. A contract extension during the 2012 season is certainly a possibility, especially if Yu Darvish isn't as good as advertised.
54. Brandon McCarthy, Athletics: He's making only $4.275 million, which is quite affordable for a pitcher of his ilk. Expect the A's to hang on to McCarthy unless they are blown away by a trade proposal from a pitching-starved playoff hopeful.
58. Gavin Floyd, White Sox: Expect to hear Floyd's name a lot when June rolls around. Unless the White Sox are major contenders, it will not be in their best interest to hold on to Floyd and pick up his $9.5 million option.
61. Ryan Dempster, Cubs: He's a lovable guy, but the Cubs likely will be more than happy to rid themselves of Dempster's $14 million contract in 2012. He'll turn 35 in May, and could certainly help a team win a pennant this year.
63. Brett Myers, Astros: Houston has little chance of fielding a competitive team for a few years, so Myers could be traded away in July, just like all the other star Astros players over the past two years. But chances are better that he has a strong season as the closer and Houston picks up his $10 million club option for 2013.
65. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals: Although he won't be pitching in many crucial games for the always-rebuilding Royals, Sanchez could provide value for somebody desperate for a quality left arm. His $5.6 million contract this year isn't outrageous, but he'll need to do a lot better than a 4-7 record, 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP (his 2011 numbers) to garner any outside trade interest.
67. Edwin Jackson, Nationals: He reportedly turned down a three-year, $30 million deal with Pittsburgh and instead inked a one-year, $11 million contract to pitch for Washington. He's almost certain to test the free-agent market in 2013, which makes him a trade possibility this July.
76. Jake Peavy, White Sox: If his shoulder holds up, numerous clubs could seek the services of Peavy at the trade deadline. He's only 30 years old, and if the White Sox want to keep him they'll have to pony up $22 million to pick up his option, or $4 million to buy him out.
77. R.A. Dickey, Mets: There are worse contracts out there, but New York will more than likely choose not to exercise its $5 million club option and let Dickey become a free agent.


Relief pitchers

2. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Can you imagine him pitching anywhere but New York? He'll turn 43 in November, and his cutter still will likely be unhittable.
6. Ryan Madson, Reds: Cincinnati would have to be really desperate to let this guy walk. The team likely is fully prepared to pick up his $11 million mutual option at the end of the year.
10. Jose Valverde, Tigers: A perfect 49 for 49 saves in 2011 have earned Valverde $9 million for 2012. He's not going anywhere this year, but he'll likely be a free agent following the season.
14. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks: Given his injury history, Arizona likely is in no hurry to work out a contract extension. If he remains effective, the Diamondbacks likely will exercise his $6.5 million club option for 2013.
19. Kyle Farnsworth, Rays: Tampa Bay picked up his $3.3 million option for 2012 but likely won't lock him up with a long-term deal. He's a candidate to be moved before the trade deadline if he remains an effective closer.
20. Huston Street, Padres: If San Diego went through the trouble of trading for Street, you have to figure the team wants to keep him around awhile. Expect his $9 million mutual option to be picked up by the Padres in 2013, and maybe Huston, too.
23. Brandon League, Mariners: League, an up-and-coming closer on a horrible, team, could be dealt in 2012, considering his one-year, $5 million contract for this season is reasonable for a pitcher who had 37 saves last year.
25. Matt Capps, Twins: After blowing nine saves in 2011, Capps is expendable for the rebuilding Twins. But with a $6 million club option for next season, there probably won't be many takers for Capps' services long term.
29. Grant Balfour, A's: He'll probably win the closer job in Oakland, but even if he doesn't the A's might keep Balfour as a setup man for 2012. That said, most setup men don't earn $4.5 million a season, which is Balfour's option-year figure. That makes him a midseason trade candidate in 2012.

 

[HacheMan]

Ichiro tops 'oldies but goodies' list

At this time last year, Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was coming off another standout campaign that consisted of a league-leading 214 hits, a .315 batting average and 42 stolen bases, and it sure didn't seem like many people were concerned about his being 37 years old. Suzuki seemed impervious to age, still displaying the skills that were making him a top right fielder and very much in demand on fantasy draft day.

Of course, now that he's coming off a season in which he hit "only" .272, more than 50 points lower than his career batting average, he suddenly has become too old at age 38.

Yep, it's time for my annual diatribe about older baseball players and how some of them can still actually help a fantasy baseball team. I know, what a concept, right? Last year I discussed Bobby Abreu and went around the diamond highlighting others on the wrong side of 35, including Lance Berkman, Derek Jeter, Scott Rolen, Jorge Posada, David Ortiz and Torii Hunter, with varying success. On the pitching side, I featured Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly and Derek Lowe; those first four were pretty good, while Lowe's problems likely had little to do with the year he was born.
Suzuki wasn't prominently mentioned in last year's blog entry, as I alluded to him and New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez as having their "value not suppressed by age." Well, in A-Rod's case, the missed games have surely hurt his value, and he suddenly looks old (though I say he'll bounce back). Does Ichiro look old? I think age is precisely the reason Suzuki has gone from the 44th player chosen in 2011 ESPN average live drafts to 87th in 2012 drafts, but what really changed other than his getting older? He doesn't look too old to me, and I'm guessing the Mariners aren't concerned, since they're moving him to the No. 3 lineup slot.
In truth, Suzuki wasn't that bad in 2011; he stole 40 bases in 47 attempts (only three players stole more bases), remained as durable as ever (nobody had more at-bats) and cut his strikeout rate, and it's not like he hit his weight. A .272 mark is usable. He was 15th in the league in hits. Then again, Suzuki's BABIP tells a relevant tale; his career mark is .351, and it's enough of a sample size (7,000-plus at-bats!) to be legitimate, and not skewed like Austin Jackson's (.396) was in 2010. In, 2011 Suzuki's BABIP was "only" .295, right around the league average, but not the Ichiro average. We can't presume his 2012 BABIP will be upward of .350, but it's reasonable to expect a mild bounce-back from him. After all, the speed remains.
I have Suzuki slotted at least 20 spots better than current ESPN live draft results. I see him hitting near .300 again, and there aren't many players I consider safer bets to reach at least 35 stolen bases. Hitting third has to help his RBI potential, although I'll still take the under on 75 of them. This is a really interesting situation, by the way; Ichiro has 8,060 career plate appearances, all but 78 of them hitting first. This is really new territory. It's possible the experiment ends by May. It could end tomorrow. Will it work? Certainly Suzuki is no prototypical middle-of-the-order bat. He slugged .335 last year, although those who regularly watch him in batting practice claim he could hit for power if he wanted to. In 2009, Suzuki hit 11 home runs, producing 46 extra-base hits. Who's to say he can't do that again, even at the advanced age of 38?
Here are 10 other players aged 35 years or older whom I'm keeping my eye on:
1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees: He's going in the sixth round of drafts, which seems like a bargain to me. Yes, he played in only 99 games in 2011 but still ranked 11th at his position on the Player Rater. I expect 25 home runs in 130 games.
2. Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: As bad as you think he was in 2011, he was still a top-10 shortstop. Don't expect a major drop-off in 2012.3. Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, Houston Astros: Don't laugh: He wasn't far from 20 home runs and 100 RBIs last season, so he's aging just fine, and in a year, he gets to DH.

4. Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants: Everyone says he's in great shape in March, of course, but I'm kind of buying what Huff is selling, to a degree. He credits offseason Pilates for his resurrection. I've seen a few of his spring at-bats, and a return to 2010's 20 homers and 80 RBIs seems realistic.
5. Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs: I don't think he'll hit less than .250 just because he's 36 years old. But consider this a reminder that he also has hit 50 home runs over the past two seasons, and he could hit cleanup this season.
6. Jim Thome, DH, Philadelphia Phillies: I must admit to being curious about how Thome will be deployed. In an NL-only format, his 12-15 home runs -- I think he can muster that many -- are worth a late-round look.
7. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Yankees: Even if you bump his ERA up a full run thanks to the change in leagues and different competition, he makes my top 40 starting pitchers.
8. Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves: Back surgery likely will cost him April and perhaps May, so draft him after the top 50 starters, but don't forget him. It's not like he's a power pitcher.
9. R.A. Dickey, SP, New York Mets: Tim Wakefield just left the game at age 74. Knuckleballers don't age. And while Dickey slips to the 23rd round, his two-year averages for the Mets show a 3.08 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
10. Rafael Betancourt, RP, Colorado Rockies: I can't imagine many pitchers earned their first double-digit save season at age 37. This guy should get 35 saves. I'd take him over similarly aged closers J.J. Putz, Joe Nathan and Kyle Farnsworth, but not over Mariano Rivera. As Mo proves, age is just a number! By the way, it has little to do with fantasy, but speaking of age, I'm rooting for Jamie Moyer. He hit 35 a mere 14 years ago! Go, Jamie!

 

[HacheMan]

Pineda Paranoia

It’s rare for an early-March radar reading to draw much attention, but such is life in pinstripes.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported early Tuesday morning that new Yankees starter Michael Pineda -- acquired this offseason in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners -- was clocked between 88-91 mph on Monday in his Grapefruit League debut against the Phillies. Pineda’s fastball averaged 94.7 mph last season and he was hitting 93-96 mph at this time last spring, so the slight but noticeable drop in velocity created somewhat of an uproar across the baseball media landscape.



But there's no real reason for panic.



Pineda was working on a few different grips -- including one for a redesigned changeup -- and still managed to hold the Phillies scoreless over his two innings of work, yielding just one hit and issuing no walks while striking out two Philadelphia hitters. Yankees manager Joe Giradi assured reporters on Tuesday afternoon that he's not at all concerned, saying that he expects the 23-year-old right-hander's velocity to improve as the spring carries on.



As Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs notes, fluctuating radar readings are not a new thing for Pineda. He would often open games last year in Seattle with a high-80s or low-90s fastball and then dial it up at will to create an added element of deception. I'll go ahead and steal Cameron's conclusion because it oozes reason:



"If it’s mid-April and he’s trying to keep the Yankees in a regular season game and can’t get his fastball over 92, then it’s cause for alarm. Now, though, it’s just not really something that anyone should spend much time worrying about."


For the latest MLB rankings, projections, prospect analysis and more, get Rotoworld's Baseball Draft Guide.




Santana Enjoys Smooth Grapefruit League Debut



Mets left-hander Johan Santana hasn't pitched in a regular-season major league game since September 2, 2010 and is attempting to make a full recovery from a major shoulder surgery that only a handful of pitchers have ever undergone. But he's slowly rising up the starting pitcher rankings in our award-winning Online Draft Guide because early reports out of Port St. Lucie, Florida have been eye-openingly positive.



Santana made his 2012 Grapefruit League debut Tuesday against the Cardinals and allowed just one hit and one walk over two free-and-easy frames. He hit 92 mph on the Mets' gun and was consistently clocked above 90 mph while also fooling a few St. Louis batters with a mid-70s changeup that Yadier Molina described as "vintage."



If Santana can handle between 20-25 starts this season for New York and come anywhere close to generating the kind of box score lines that once made him a sure-fire fantasy ace, he could be a serious steal in drafts this year.



Perez On Track For Early Return From Oblique Strain



Indians closer Chris Perez made 45 throws from a distance of 65 feet on Tuesday morning at the Indians' spring training complex in Goodyear, Arizona, feeling no lingering pain or discomfort related to the right oblique strain that he suffered while hurling his first bullpen session of the spring.



Perez was originally prescribed a recovery timetable of 4-6 weeks, but he's already been cleared for games of catch and should soon progress to mound work. He's telling reporters in camp that he wants to make his Cactus League debut by the middle of March, and we're beginning to think he might not be so crazy.



If Perez is able to begin making appearances in spring games within the next 10 days, he should have no trouble getting sufficiently tuned up in time for the start of the regular season. Even if he doesn't debut for another two weeks, there still might be ample games left on the Tribe's spring schedule.



Perez, 26, has a 2.49 ERA in his past 122 2/3 innings. He saved 36 games in 40 tries last year.



Hart Undergoes Minor Knee Surgery, Out 3-4 Weeks



As scheduled, Brewers outfielder Corey Hart had arthroscopic surgery Tuesday on his right knee.



The procedure was of the minor variety and Hart is expected to be cleared to resume normal spring workouts within the next month, but a season-opening stint on the 15-day disabled list seems likely given that he's going to miss nearly the entire Cactus League schedule and will need at least some at-bats against live, competitive pitching in order to get properly geared up for regular-season major league action.



Hart's DL stint can be filed retroactively to March 26, so he would be eligible to return before mid-April.



The 29-year-old batted .285/.356/.510 with 26 homers and 63 RBI in 130 games last season.





Guillen Announces Retirement In Mariners Camp


Veteran infielder Carlos Guillen announced his retirement from baseball Tuesday morning at the Mariners' spring training complex in Peoria, Arizona. The news came as a surprise considering Guillen had a good beat on a backup infield job this year with the M's, but it's hard to blame the guy for walking away.

Guillen, 36, played in just 28 games last season, 68 games in 2010 and 81 games in 2009 due to knee, calf and wrist injuries. That kind of inactivity can be frustrating, and there was no guarantee that 2012 would be any better.


Guillen finishes with 1,331 career hits, 124 career home runs and a .285/.355/.443 career slash line. He played for only the Mariners and Tigers during his 14-year MLB career and was named an All-Star three times.

Guillen's decision may have cleared a 25-man roster spot for Japanese infielder Munenori Kawasaki, who signed a minor league contract with Seattle in early January and carries a strong defensive reputation.

 

[HacheMan]

Darvish's Dealings

The man from Japan is no longer a mystery — he’s a Major League Baseball player.

Everybody’s favorite human pun Yu Darvish made his Cactus League debut Wednesday, allowing two hits across two scoreless innings while striking out three.

Along the way, he made Carlos Quentin look silly, learned Will Venable is not a man to be trifled with, decided major-league hitters have more power than their Japanese counterparts and cut Venable down after making a dazzling defensive play (Darvish was a two-time Gold Glove award winner in the Pacific League.).

What does it all mean? Very little, of course. Among the other pitchers to toss two scoreless innings on Wednesday were Andrew Oliver, Justin Germano, Bruce Chen, Jeff Karstens, Jeff Samardzija, Charlie Furbush and A Career as Long as Yu Darvish is Old

Speaking of Moyer, he was making his first impression for the Rockies under decidedly different — really, unprecented — circumstances: as a 49-year-old 25-year veteran coming off Tommy John surgery.

How did he look in his first outing in 20 months? Positively Darvish-esque.

Topping out a Moyer-esque 82 miles per hour, he allowed only one hit over two scoreless frames in his first bid to earn the fifth spot in Colorado's rotation. He induced three soft grounders in his first inning of work before serving up a harmless single in an otherwise clean second. He required just 22 pitches, while five of the seven hitters he faced grounded out.

If Darvish is all youth, swagger and the unknown, Moyer is all experience, doggedness and consistency. Not to mention, proof that time isn’t always relentless.

From Young to Old to Young

Shelby Miller added himself to the list of young pitchers whose early spring radar readings have concerned the faithful.

Typically the owner of a mid-90s fastball that can clock as high as 97, Miller sat in the high-80s during his Cactus League debut. It would have been more alarming had he not allowed just one run on two hits in two innings.

As with Waiting for the Phone to Ring

Forget what happened on the field yesterday — things were happening with three players who have been conspicuously absent from it this spring.

Derrek Lee
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Lee is still hoping to play in 2012, but only if the “right opportunity” comes along. Presumably, that would mean a starting job or an American League gig where he could shuffle back and forth between first base and designated hitter.

Seeing as Lee’s numbers hovered toward replacement level (for a first baseman) for the second consecutive year in 2011, the “right opportunity” might never present itself. That being said, it’s still possible the .349/.415/.554 Lee hit in 94 plate appearances after returning from a broken wrist last September could convince someone to take the plunge. They’ll just have to look past the fact that Lee has hit .263/.337/.436 since the end of the 2009 season.

Vladimir Guerrero
Joining Lee in telling FOX he’s looking for the “right opportunity” was Guerrero, though in Vlad’s case, the “right opportunity” appears to be “any opportunity.”

As spring drags on and team needs begin to come into sharper focus, Vlad should be able to land a part-time gig after hitting .290/.317/.416 for the Orioles last season. In a perfect world, he wouldn’t approach the 590 plate appearances he logged in 2011. Vlad has officially reached the “Giambi/Thome” stage of his career.

Johnny Damon
As Lee and Guerrero both wait for their 2011 Opening Day club to call, the Orioles reportedly “haven’t ruled out” signing Damon.

Likely due in large part to what are believed to be unreasonable contract demands, Damon has generated surprisingly little interest this spring. That shouldn’t remain the case for much longer, however. Thanks to his all-but-vanished defensive skills and declining plate discipline, it’s easy to forget Damon hit .261/.326/.418 for a sometimes offensively-challenged club last season.

Damon will get a job, and he’ll be an asset in single-league fantasy formats.

Bailey Ready to Face Live Hitting

If you’ve had a fantasy team the past three seasons, odds are Andrew Bailey has spent some time on your disabled list. One of the most talented relievers in baseball, Bailey is also one of the game's biggest injury risks, and has been sidelined since suffering a “minor” lat pull just days into camp.

He threw a successful Tuesday bullpen session, however, and woke up without any unusual soreness on Wednesday. He’s been declared ready to face live hitting by Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine. “We’re going to see how he feels,” Valentine said. “He might want to jump right into a game. He’s pain-free and feels like he’s throwing the ball fine."

Bailey’s inability to stay healthy demands that you proceed with caution in fantasy drafts, but taking over a job that provided Jonathan Papelbon with an average of 40 save opportunities the past three seasons, Bailey’s high-risk will be accompanied by potentially high-reward.

Since coming into the league in 2009, Bailey has posted a 206 ERA+. Papelbon’s ERA+ since 2009? 154.

Short Hops

Manager Don Mattingly confirmed Javy Guerra will open the season as the Dodgers’ closer. That’s all good and well, but Guerra owners will be playing with fire if they don't have Kenley Jansen as a handcuff. … Manny Ramirez didn’t suit up against the Dodgers after experiencing pre-game back stiffness. He still took batting practice, however, and could return to the lineup today. … Ryan Madson played pain-free catch for the straight day. He could be back on the mound by as early as next week. … Chris Perez (oblique) played catch from a distance of 75 feet. Progressing without a setback since his February 26 injury, Perez can’t officially be ruled out for Opening Day. … Mark Trumbo (foot) played third base against the Mariners, but wasn’t allowed to bat. Regardless, he could be cleared to hit by this weekend, and his status for Opening Day is no longer in doubt. … Buster Posey (ankle) could see time behind the plate as early as Friday. … Daric Barton (shoulder) will swing a bat today, and could make his Cactus League debut on Friday. … Nick Markakis (abdominal surgery) ran sprints, and is “feeling great.” He’s likely still a week or two away from making his spring debut, however.

 

[HacheMan]

Guys I Love, Guys I Hate

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

It's a very simple question and yet, I can't get an answer to it.

What is wrong with people?


Quick backstory: I am a diehard Lakers fan. Have been a season-ticket holder for 15 years, even keeping them when I moved from Los Angeles to Connecticut in 2007. Too valuable to give up, I mostly just alternately give them away to friends or sell them. OK, backstory over. Time for, er, front story. Or now story. Which is it?



While you ponder, I'll tell you about this past Valentine's Day, when, surprisingly, I had an idea. "Who wants my Lakers tickets tonight?" I tweeted to my followers. "In honor of Valentine's Day, because I love you, 24th person (for Kobe!) to tweet 'Go Lakers' at me gets 2 tix."



Responses come in fast, I find the 24th person to do it, I tweet him and ask for his email address. I also re-tweet his winning entry, congratulating him. So this guy and I go back and forth, I make sure he gets the electronic tickets, which he does. He's good to go, he's psyched. And I feel pretty good. Lakers games are sometimes a tough ticket, not everyone gets to enjoy them, it felt good to give them away to a Lakers fan who followed me. "I need to do this more often," I say to the Current Mrs. Roto. I shut off Twitter and we head out to a romantic dinner. Romantic as evidenced by the fact that I shut off Twitter.


The next morning, I find out that five minutes after I give this guy the tickets, he posted this tweet: "#Lakers tickets for sale tonight! Message me or go to Ebay" (and he includes the link).


What? Really?!? Seriously, dude?
What is wrong with people? I specifically waited until three hours before tipoff for this exact reason. The odds of selling tickets online to a Tuesday night regular-season game 2 ½ hours (at the point he got the tickets) before tip aren't great. He messages me the next day. He tells me "turns out he couldn't make it," (he doesn't think I know about his trying to sell them. Or that I now know he lives in Florida) and says that he ultimately donated them to charity "so it's all good."


No, jerk, it isn't. I've donated plenty to charity. And if I wanted to do it this time, I would have. Well in advance, so the charity could auction it off, get some real donations, etc. But I wanted these tickets to go to a Lakers fan. A nice surprise for someone who follows me. What is a charity going to do with two tickets one hour before tipoff (which is when he pulled them off eBay)? Do you have any idea how hard it is to get to a game in L.A. with all the traffic? Of course you don't. You live in Florida!.


When he finds out I know about eBay and the selling attempts, he backpedals even more, more excuses before eventually apologizing but I don't want to hear it. I'm disgusted by this guy and the whole thing has been ruined for me. That's what I get for trying to be nice. I ask you, gentle reader.


What the hell is wrong with people?

I have a personal Facebook page where I interact with people all the time. Now, to get on that page, you have to actively seek me out, click "subscribe" or whatever, sometimes it's like a two- or three-click process, right? So I assume everyone there is someone who really wants to be there. And remember, it's not a fan page, OK? It's my personal page. I do keep some things private, but I only have one Facebook page and that's it. So my longtime good friend Melissa Masse, who is a great dress designer, posted on her Facebook about her upcoming spring line at Neiman Marcus (a big deal for her). I shared this link on my page, wishing her luck. Some people went nuts, yelling about spam and how they came to me for fantasy, not dresses, and then of course they wrap all that in personal insults as well. It's my own page, I'm supporting someone I'm close to and no one forced you to "friend me." Who is against helping a friend?


What is wrong with people?


Get an email from a total stranger. He's an author, his first book is coming out, says he's a big fan of mine, would I mind reading an advance copy and maybe giving a blurb? I have five kids, so I don't get a lot of non-sports reading time these days, but you know what? Many, many people helped me when I was starting out, I always like to encourage young writers when I can, so I think "sure." I write him back and say you bet, send it along, I'll be happy to do that. And congrats on getting your first book published!


He writes back. "Thanks. Hey, could you ask Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman to read my book and give a blurb? They're actually my favorite writers."


What is wrong with people?


Came across a story the other day. A 24-year-old unemployed Michigan woman won a million-dollar lottery. Awesome, right? Good for her. Except … she decided to remain on unemployment. That's right. She still gets $200 a month from the state, in addition to all the money she has in the bank from the lottery. When confronted about it by a local news team, Clayton said "I feel that it's OK because I mean, I have no income and I have bills to pay," she said. "I have two houses."


What. The Hell. Is wrong with people?


Every day I'm baffled by minute stuff like this. Life isn't that tough. As the great Bill S. Preston, Esq., and his fellow Wyld Stallyon Ted "Theodore" Logan once advised us, not so long ago … "Be excellent to each other. And party on."
I get it, life's not always easy. There are ups and downs. Good days and bad days. But how hard is it to follow one simple guideline: Don't be a jerk. Fairly straightforward, right? But that's a pipe dream. Especially because "jerk" is in the eye of the beholder. I think I read that on a Hallmark card.


The Twitter guy probably thought "Hey, they're my tickets. I won fair and square, Berry just gave them away with no stipulations, I can do with them what I want, including selling them."


Maybe the jerks on Facebook thought they were being funny. Or really hate women's fashion. Or only want fantasy information from me. Boy, are they in for a rude awakening. We're roughly 1,200 words into this thing, how's that working out for you?


Maybe the aspiring author is just super-enthusiastic, is excited that I seem so nice, so what's the harm in asking if I do one more favor? I mean, we must all hang out in the same office here at ESPN, right?


And the lottery winner, she probably… … yeah, I got nothing. Sometimes a jerk is just a jerk.

The point is, San Dimas High School football rules! The other point is that people approach everything differently. What seems jerky to me might be normal to you, and vice versa. Which brings us, meandering slowly, to the 2012 baseball edition of "Love/Hate."
A player you think is a fourth-rounder I may feel is a second-rounder. A guy you're drafting in the 10th is a reach for me, as I'm not touching him until the 14th. It is these differences, you see, that make up Love and Hate. And this is good. Life's already full enough of jerks; the last thing you need is someone who thinks exactly like you do about every player, snaking them from you in the draft.


So there I was, looking at the live draft results for our standard 10-team mixed 5x5 leagues. And as you might imagine, I disagreed with where some folks are taking some players. Now remember, any player can be a sleeper or a bust depending on what it costs to acquire that player. I don't love the term, but it's what everyone uses, so we're stuck with it. A sleeper or a bust is anyone you think will exceed or fall short of returning what it cost to acquire them. Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson were "sleepers" last year for everyone who targeted them. Nobody had to ask "Who?" when they drafted them, so you might not think of them as "sleepers" … But all three massively outperformed their draft-day cost and won a lot of leagues for a lot of folks.



Hard to say, really, that Bobby Abreu was a "bust" last year, right? I mean, his average draft position was the 15th round (pick 143). Except he finished the year at No. 212 on the Player Rater. Even though he didn't cost much to acquire, he still failed to live up to even that.

It is with this premise in mind we present this year's Love/Hate, a more focused edition than prior seasons. It's still really long, don't worry. As if you didn't already figure that out by the fifth paragraph. This season, I thought I would go round by round and pick one or two players who are either going a little too late (the "loves") or are going a little too early (the "hates") for my taste. Hopefully, the round designations will stop questions like "You hate Robinson Cano and love Danny Espinosa, which one should I draft?" But I'm not holding my breath. (What is wrong with some people?) Use your brain. It's by round. I used the ADP from the first week or so of live drafts on ESPN.com, so it may change a bit by the beginning of the season.


So here's where my opinion differs from the crowd. But on the ticket guy, we're all on the same page there, right? OK, good.



Guys I love




Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox (Going in the 2nd round, I'd take him in the 1st): A super- obvious name, of course, but I put him in because I have him ranked ahead of Joey Votto and most rankings I've seen has them reversed. Here's why I disagree: First, not only is it possible that Gonzalez outplays Votto; it wouldn't be the first time. Gonzalez was the second-best first baseman on our Player Rater last year. Votto was fourth. But here's something you might not know. Adrian did an interview for the Fantasy Focus podcast this offseason with me and Stephania Bell, and he said something fascinating: He's actually been injured for two years now. He's one of the toughest guys in baseball (just seven total games missed over the last three seasons) but now, heading into this year, he feels fully healthy. He told Stephania and me about how he had adjusted his swing because of his shoulder, and now that he feels he can extend fully, he spent his winter watching old tape to recapture his old swing because he thinks he'll be better now that he can fully swing through the ball and… what?!!?? Think about what he did last year, when, finally freed from Petco, he had the best statistical season of his career in basically every category but home runs. It was a down year for many Red Sox, including Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis, so now, in his second year in the American League, with healthier players around him, he can fully extend his swing? Seriously, dude, Votto who? I'm all in. Would not shock me if he ended up the No. 1 first baseman this year. All. In.


Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies (2nd round, take in the first): CarGo hit .295 with 26 homers, 92 runs, 92 RBIs and 20 steals last season and he was hurt. And he's just 26. Outfield is more shallow than you think. Meanwhile, I'm just as shallow as you think. Ugh, what are you wearing?


Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers (3rd round, take in the 2nd): I have him above David Wright and just a few spots behind Evan Longoria in my rankings. I might even be too low on him; I think our overall ESPN rankings are. Look at what he's done since leaving Seattle: 28 homers and 102 RBIs with Boston and then 32 homers and 105 RBIs last season, and he missed nearly 40 games. Generally a healthy player, great ballpark, he's 30 and 100 with a good average in the bank and there's upside for a lot more if he stays healthy. He isn't nearly as exciting a name as Wright or Longoria, but he's a much safer play than either.

Michael Bourn, OF, Braves (4th round, take in the 3rd): Bourn needs a new PR guy. We need a whole new campaign. We'll do the talk shows, the viral video with some YouTube star, the fake relationship with an up-and-coming actress (I'm thinking Rooney Mara), all to re-brand him as Michael Bourn: more than just steals!


The question isn't why am I so high on him, the question is why isn't anyone else? When my ranks came out, I got a lot of notes on Facebook and Twitter, some of them even spelled correctly, wondering why I had Bourn at 26 and eighth overall among outfielders. And I'm like, why wouldn't I? I'm worried I'm a little too low on him. Three straight seasons of 50-plus steals, he's a .283 hitter over the past three and has averaged 92 runs a season. He's also stolen 50 total bags more than the next guy (Carl Crawford) over the past three combined, so it's not just that he gets a lot of steals, he gets them significantly more consistently and in much greater numbers than anyone else. It's a huge advantage. I mean, if you draft Bourn and then get an average of seven steals from the rest of the players on your team, you win stolen bases. He's essentially 10 roto points, just with steals. Now add all those runs scored and 600-plus at-bats of hitting better than .280, and you've got yourself a roto stud. Finally, consider these names: Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Justin Upton, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez. According to our Player Rater, which judges every player on how valuable they are in standard rotisserie categories as compared to every other player, Michael Bourn was better than all of those guys last year. He's a stud and I don't want to have to plant a rumor of the existence of a clandestine tape featuring him and a Hollywood starlet to convince you of that fact.


Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers (4th round, take in the 3rd): Not worried about off-the-field issues, just like I wasn't worried about them with Miguel Cabrera last season. I'm also not worried about the injury history. In a10-team mixed league, there are plenty of viable options on the waiver wire while you stash Hamilton on the IR. Hamilton for 447 at-bats (his three-year average) plus a replacement-level outfielder for 150 at-bats will easily produce top-30 stats.


Zack Greinke, P, Brewers ( 5th round, take in the 4th): Sabermetric darling Greinke not only allows you to feel statistically smug with a 2011 xFIP of 2.56 and a superior K/9 of 10.54, but it means you can call your team The Zack Attack and Rick-roll your league mates to this video.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers (6th round, take in 4th or 5th): Time for a blind résumé. Name the two players who put up these stats in 2011.


Player A: 101 runs, 7 home runs, 44 RBIs, 39 SB.
Player B: 96 runs, 5 home runs, 60 RBIs, 37 SB.


The biggest fantasy difference between Player B, our hero Elvis Andrus, and Player A, Jose Reyes, is the batting average; Reyes had a .337 average last year and Andrus was a .279 guy. But Andrus not only cut down on his strikeouts last year, he actually walked more than he struck out in the second half. As he's just 23 years old, I expect similar numbers to last season with some batting average improvement. Make no mistake, Jose Reyes (whom I like a lot, incidentally) is better than Elvis Andrus. But he's not four rounds better than him, yet that's how they're being drafted.


Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies (6th round, take in 5th): Quick quiz to impress your friends, assuming, of course, that your friends are impressed by nerdy fantasy trivia and that you in fact have friends. Name the only players to have at least 84 runs scored, 17 home runs, 60 RBIs and 19 steals each of the past two seasons? There are only three: Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Young and … Shane Victorino. What if we raise it to 25 steals, which is the minimum number Victorino has had for each of the four seasons before last year, when he struggled with hamstring and thumb injuries? The answer is: nobody. A career .279 hitter, Victorino contributes across the board in multiple categories in a way very few others do, without hurting you in any one category the way Chris Young does. Always underrated.


Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox (7th round, take in the 4th or 5th): He's Carl Crawford. (Weasel voice): Yeah, but, last year, bad stat, bad stat, blah blah blah … He's Carl Crawford. I repeat. He's Carl Crawford. My colleagues are nuts for ranking him like this. The average draft position (influenced by said ranks) is nuts. What's more likely, that he disappoints like he did last year, or that he produces like a stud the way he did every single season from 2003 to 2010? Yes, there is injury concern, which is why he's a fourth-round guy, not a second-rounder. He's Carl Crawford. Once again. Carl. Crawford.


Michael Morse, 1B/OF, Nationals (8th round, take in the 6th): Things that are legit: Michael Morse's power, a Chick-Fil-A sandwich, kids selling lemonade on the side of the street, Michael Morse's playing time, a warm towel when you get out of the shower, Barry from "Storage Wars," the dearth of 30-homer first basemen, especially in the NL, and this.


Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks and Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals (9th round, take in the 8th): Many folks think Kennedy got lucky last year and that Strasburg isn't worth it based on his innings limit. Many folks are wrong. Look closer, kids. This is the Mayor of Stud City and his crazy hot girlfriend. You get to decide who is who.


Madison Bumgarner, P, Giants (9th round, take in 7th or 8th): Brutal in the month of April, posting a 6.17 ERA last year. Maybe it was the weather, maybe he was a bit banged up; I honestly don't know. This is what I do know: Starting May 1, his 2.83 ERA was 11th-best in MLB (better than Sabathia over that time frame), as was his 175 strikeouts (tied with Lincecum, more than Halladay). His 2.49 FIP was third-best in baseball and his 1.14 WHIP was 17th-best. In short, he was all that and a box of Pop Tarts. Better than what his overall numbers suggest, this 22-year-old is, as they say in the biz, on the come.

Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Red Sox (9th round, take in the 6th): Stop me if you've heard this one before. DUDE! He's Kevin Youkilis! Carl Crawford's teammate! Power was a bit down last year and he hit a few more ground balls, but "whatevs. " He was also hurt a lot of last year, but is healthy now. Most of the underlying numbers look intact to me, and to say last year was a lost season for many of the Red Sox is an understatement. I acknowledge the potential of getting re-injured, but that's why he's in the sixth and not the third. The fact that there are 10 third basemen going ahead of Youk is a Metta World Peace level of crazy. He's Kevin Youkilis! The poster boy for "proven players off a bad year "(PPOBY), as discussed in the Draft Day Manifesto.


Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (10th round, take in the 6th): If you read or even skimmed my Draft Day Manifesto this year (or even just read my Youkilis rant), you know I like proven players coming off one bad year. Well, Jayson Werth is a proven player coming off one bad year. Basically a 20/20 guy since getting full-time playing time in 2008, Werth isn't as good a hitter as his .296 in 2010 suggests, but he's also not as bad as the .232 last year incoherently slurs. Yes, he struck out a bit more and walked a bit less, perhaps pressing to justify his ridiculous contract. But a .286 batting average on balls in play (career .324) didn't help, and he showed signs of bouncing back in the second half (.255 post-All-Star, .215 prior) with a better home run-per-at-bat rate in the second half as well. He's a total PPOBY. Nats are going to be sneaky good this year.
Adam Wainwright, P, Cardinals (11th round, take in the 8th): You either believe he is healthy and will stay that way, in which case he needs to go earlier than the 11th, or you do not, in which case he'll probably fail to return even that much value. Either way, the 11th is the wrong round. And me? I believe.


Howard Kendrick, 2B-OF, Angels (12th round, take in the 10th): Hiya! Nice to meet ya! Don't come round these parts often, do ya? Well, pay no mind. It's just little ol' me, hanging out. With my 86 runs from last year. Ya know, that year I wasn't hitting in front of Albert Pujols? Yep, folks 'round these parts like to mention my career .292 average, my double-digit homers and speed in each of the past three years and my 60-odd RBIs every season since '09, but I just like to focus on the fact that I'm a second baseman and an outfielder. Pardon? Oh, the gas station is 2 miles up, yonder. Right. Never mind.


Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves (13th round, take in the 10th): Time for another blind résumé.


Player A: .282 in 571 at-bats, 67 runs, 21 home runs, 76 RBIs, 4 SB.
Player B: .293 in 523 at-bats, 66 runs, 19 home runs, 78 RBIs, 11 SB.


OK, so "Player A" had almost 50 more at-bats to get his numbers and still had seven fewer steals while hitting 11 points worse. But basically, these guys are the same fantasy player, right? Well, Player A is, as you might have guessed, Freddie Freeman. Player B is Eric Hosmer, currently going eight rounds ahead of Freeman. Now, Freeman strikes out a lot more than Hosmer, and there is value in Hosmer's steals, especially at first base. But as our profile on Freeman notes, he improved in the second half and actually draws more walks than Hosmer. Hosmer is a stud. But he's not eight rounds studlier.


Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves (14th round, take in the 11th): His 10.74 strikeouts-per-nine last season were the most among any pitcher who threw at least 140 innings. By comparison, Justin Verlander's K/9 was 8.96. When the Current Mrs. Roto and I had twin daughters earlier this year, did I attempt to name them Brandon and Beachy? Mayyyyybe.


Neftali Feliz, SP, Rangers (15th round, 13th): The Rangers have had pretty good success with that whole reliever-to-starter thing, no?


Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres (16th round, 13th): Come for the steals, stay for the breakout. He's just 25, kids. Twenty. Five.


Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins (17th round, 14th): He was up, he was down, he was a social media darling. Lotta crazy going on last year for LoMo, yet at the end of it he finished with 23 homers and 72 RBIs, very respectable for a 24-year-old just trying to make his way in this kooky world. New manager, new park, new knees (well, operated on); he's a great bet for at least 20 and 80 with a good average and some upside.


Emilio Bonifacio, SS-3B-OF, Marlins (18th round, 13-14th round): Ole! It's not just the multi-position eligibility, the crazy speed, the new manager who LOVES to run (he could steal 60 this year, easy) or the many vowels in his name (always a crowd-pleaser) that lands Emilio on this list. It's the fact he learned to take a walk and is going to play every day. This is another player whose ESPN ranking I disagree with in a big way, especially knowing that Ozzie's teams attempted over 530 steals the last three seasons.


Brandon McCarthy, SP, A's (19th round, 15th): Please read this article.


Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals (20th round, 19th): Batting average, schmatting average. It's the 19th round and there's still one middle infielder on the board with legit 20/20 potential. Done.


Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Blue Jays (21st round, 19th): Fantasy. Kryptonite. Must …stay …away! Can't resist. Must have, must have. Danger! Danger, TMR! Danger! Will stay healthy one year! Such power potential. Still just 29! Will DH! Must have! (breaks down sobbing). I am so weak.


Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox (22nd round, 20th): PPOBY! He's either, er, done, or last year was a fluke. So you either have a steal of a guy who could hit 30-plus homers, or you have the first guy you drop when a hot free agent comes around. The point is, at this point in the draft, you need to be, er, swinging for the fences, not taking a guy like Alex Gonzalez (going three picks ahead of him). Gonzalez is fine, but whatevs, yo. Give me the upside of Dunn. If I don't get Gonzalez, I can find a similar shortstop on the waiver wire in mid-April. Actually, I can probably get Gonzalez himself, after his owner dumps him three weeks in.


Raul Ibanez, OF, Yankees (23rd round, 21st): A total down season for him last year, he still wound up with 20 home runs and 84 RBIs, his seventh consecutive season with at least 80 RBIs and his sixth (of the past seven) with at least 20 home runs. His .268 BABIP (career .303) suggests he got somewhat unlucky (career .280 hitter). He's older and definitely struggled some last year, and maybe he was pressing a bit more (career low walk percentage), but dude. It's the 23rd round. He's going to DH for the Yankees. Yankee Stadium is a perfect fit for his swing. He's got a real shot at 100 RBIs in that lineup, with solid power, maybe 75 runs scored, and hopefully an average that won't kill you. PPOBY.


Johan Santana, P, Mets (24th round, 22nd): You know the old joke, right? You don't need to be faster than the bear, you just gotta be faster than your buddy. Johan Santana doesn't need to be the stud ace he used to be, he just needs to be better than a 24th-round pitcher. And he will be. Love Santana this year for what it costs to get him. Another PPOBY.

Big Fat Bartolo Colon, P, A's (25th round, 24th): On this list, either as a love or a hate, always and forever. I'll take the hit on offense for a better park and division. This year, he will waddle into your heart.


Others receiving votes


Here's a bunch of players I like that I either didn't have room for (like, I think Justin Upton is a guy who should go in the first but is going in the second, but I already had Adrian and CarGo there), or are better as deep AL- or NL-only league picks (noted by an asterisk). Click on their names for a detailed profile (written by our crack fantasy staff), or just keep reading me this preseason. They will all come up one way or the other. So here are some more players whom maybe I don't love but whom I really, really like, in team-by-team order.


Nolan Reimold, J.J. Hardy, Jim Johnson, Matt Wieters, Jason Hammel*. Andrew Bailey, Mike Aviles*, Ryan Lavarnway*, Nick Swisher, Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez*, Eric Thames, Sergio Santos, Colby Rasmus, I can't quit Brandon Morrow, Alex Rios (sigh), John Danks (fits into my PPOBY theory), Chris Sale, Addison Reed, Shin-Soo Choo (PPOBY), Vinnie Pestano, Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall*, Jason Kipnis*, Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila (don't think it was a fluke), Max Scherzer (sigh), Andy Dirks*, Eric Hosmer, Jeff Francoeur (less fluky than you think), Jonathan Sanchez (sigh), Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales (PPOBY), Ervin Santana, Coco Crisp, Mike Carp, Martin Prado, The Sanchize (Gaby & Anibal), Carlos Zambrano*, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Ty Wigginton, Wilson Ramos, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey*, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez (sigh), Jed Lowrie*, Rickie Weeks (sigh), Nyjer Morgan, Chris Narveson*, Mat Gamel*, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, Clint Barmes*, Erik Bedard* (sigh), Carlos Beltran, Jon Jay*, Ryan Roberts (not a fluke), Daniel Hudson, David Hernandez*, Dexter Fowler, Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio*, Dee Gordon (should have been a love, frankly), Kenley Jansen (as required by fantasy analyst law, but for the record, he was on this list last year, before it was cool), Will Venable (sigh), Cory Luebke (also should have been a love), Tim Stauffer*.



Guys I hate




Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees (Being drafted in the 1st round, I would wait until the 2nd): Dontcha know? He's everything you want in a second baseman. Power. Average. Brave. Kind. Loyal. A ghostwriter on much of Lady Gaga's last album. There's only one thing he can't do: play a different position. The issue isn't with Cano, but rather second base, where there is really nice depth this year compared with previous years. As great as Cano was last year, he wasn't even the best fantasy second baseman. That was Dustin Pedroia, according to our Player Rater. And Ian Kinsler wasn't far behind in third. Cano doesn't run, he doesn't hit for crazy power (despite winning the home run derby, he has never topped 30 home runs in a season), struck out a career-high 96 times last year and he's no longer at a super-scarce position. I love him,, but I don't love taking him in the first 10 picks.
Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers, (2nd round, would wait for 3rd): "Runners on second and third, two down, here's the 2-2 pitch from Verlander … it's a slow roller down the line, should be an easy –whoa, it's by Cabrera! One run is in, two runs are in and Detroit is not out of this inning yet, folks …" Yeah. This is not going to go well.


Verlander is currently going 12th overall (first round in a 12-team league), but I actually have him just outside my overall top 20 and as the third pitcher off the board (behind Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw). As great as Verlander is, and he's amazeballs, he did get somewhat lucky last year (.236 BABIP, career .285, xFIP was 3.12 and his LOB% (runners left on base) was 80.3 percent, higher than his career average of 73.3 percent). He had, clearly, a career year. Never pay for a career year, kids. Right up there with "Never get involved in a land war in Asia" and "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! He'll be one of the elite guys this year, but I expect a regression that will bring him in line with his 2010 numbers (3.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), especially with his suspect defense this year, making him a very good pitcher, but not a top-12 kinda guy.


Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees (3rd round, wait for the 4th): A year after he hit .256, Mark Teixeira hit .248. It is now officially, as the kids say, a thing. The power is still there, but the average isn't coming back any time soon. He posted his lowest walk rate since 2007; he is traditionally a good second-half player. Yet his 14 home runs post-All-Star break were the lowest of his career since 2003, as were his 38 runs and 46 RBIs. Our player profile on him notes other flaws, including his lack of ground balls, and I'll throw in his lowest OPS since 2003 as long as I'm kicking dirt on the guy. He's like Dan Uggla with a bit more batting average, or an even safer Mark Reynolds. Which is fine, except he's costing a lot more than those guys are.


Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals (4th, wait for the 5th): It's like the classic "American Pie" quote, "This one time, at band camp … ." Well, just this one time, at Nats park, Zimmerman had more than 100 RBIs and 100 runs (2009). And this one other time, at Nats park, Zimmerman hit better than .300 (2010), and this one time, at Nats park, Zimmerman had double-digit steals (2006), and this one time, Zimmerman hit ground balls more than 50 percent of the time, had career lows in isolated power and HR/FB rate (last year!) and then, this one time, at Nats park, he signed a $100 million dollar extension and is hooked up for the rest of his life (also last year).


Hunter Pence, OF, Phillies (5th round, 6th): Time for another blind résumé!


Player A: .314 in 606 AB, 84 runs, 22 HRs, 97 RBIs, 8 SB.
Player B: .303 in 611 AB, 101 runs, 23 HRs, 87 RBIs, 17 SB.


So Player A is Hunter Pence, currently going 40th overall. Player B? Alex Gordon, who is going at Pick 59. Yeah, you say, but I don't believe in Gordon. OK, fine. I'm not sure I buy Pence's average (.361 BABIP last year, career .328); think he'll be much closer to his career .292 average but OK, slow your roll, Pence lover. You like the fact that he's proven. I get it. Let's try again, with some more players:


Pence: .314 in 606 AB, 84 runs, 22 HRs, 97 RBIs, 8 SB.
Player C: .300 in 520 AB, 78 runs, 22 HRs, 84 RBIs, 4 SB.
Player D: .299 in 525 AB, 68 runs, 21 HRs, 86 RBIs, 0 SB.


Pence has more steals than both of them and a significant run advantage over Player D. But when I tell you Player C is Carlos Beltran (currently going in the 12th round) and that Player D is Jhonny Peralta (14th round) well, then, is there really a seven- or nine-round difference here? One more, just to really drive this home.


Pence: .314 in 606 AB, 84 runs, 22 HRs, 97 RBIs, 8 SB.
Player E: .309 in 525 AB, 84 runs, 29 HRs, 96 RBIs, 1 SB.


Player E is David Ortiz, going in the eighth round.


Obviously there's some position scarcity to consider here, but whether it's guys like Adam Jones or Corey Hart (when healthy), there are lots of guys that are almost as good and much cheaper, especially when you consider the fact that you can't count on Pence for double-digit steals anymore (seems to be running less and Philly was just 19th last year in steals), and we expect some batting-average regression. He's very solid, but you can find similar stats much cheaper.

Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays (6th round, 7th): One hundred and fifty at-bats, kids. That's all he has in the major leagues. Really, really small sample size. Remember how excited everyone was for Jason Heyward last year? He's being drafted ahead of guys like Brandon Phillips, Jimmy Rollins, Elvis Andrus, Starlin Castro, Aramis Ramirez, Carl Crawford … ! Drafting him here, you've taken any potential profit away.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Brewers (7th round, 8th): Last three seasons at Wrigley Field: .329 in 641 AB, 35 HR, 138 RBI, 85 strikeouts. Past three years on the road: .246 in 695 AB, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 117 strikeouts. In 300 career at-bats at Miller Park, he's a .270 hitter. As our great Stats & Information blog points out, of Ramirez's 14 home runs at Wrigley in 2011, six of those fly balls would not have left Miller Park. He has missed 131 games the last three seasons. He is 33 years old. And just got paid.
B.J. Upton, OF, Rays (8th round, 9th): What did your batting average ever do to you?


Michael Pineda, SP, Yankees (9th round, 12th): You know why New York is the city that never sleeps? It's because they're up all night trying to think of new ways to complain about their sports teams. Many a fine pitcher has gone to the Big Apple only to start whimpering like they're the sniveling kid in the corner waiting for Harry Potter to show up. We're a week in and they're already talking about Pineda's weight gain and his lost velocity. Let's say he loses the weight, regains the velocity, that the second-half fade last year (5.12 ERA post-All-Star) and his poor numbers away from Safeco (4.40 ERA on the road last season) were the result of bad luck, which I actually sort of buy. And let's ignore this stat that Mark Simon from ESPN Stats & Information points out:


Lefties versus Pineda in 1st half: .201 BA, 3 HRs, 209 AB
Lefties versus Pineda in 2nd half: .302 BA, 5 HRs, 116 AB


So we put all that aside and just think about this: He's 23 years old. New York ain't Seattle, the AL East ain't the AL West and I'm not drafting him ahead of guys like Ricky Romero, Adam Wainwright or Mat Latos.


Brian Wilson, P, Giants (10th round, 15th or later): Never pay for saves. Especially when they're from a closer who experienced elbow pain at the end of last season and is counting on rest to fix everything.


Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays (10th-11th round, 12th-13th): So, I used this blind resume in my Draft Day Manifesto, but that was 12,000 words, so it probably was the in the part you skimmed. Here it is again:

Player A: .333, 23 runs, 8 HRs, 20 RBIs, 14 SB.
Player B: .160, 21 runs, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 6 SB.


Player A is Desmond Jennings over his first 141 at-bats last season. Player B? Desmond Jennings over the next, and final, 106 at-bats. You've heard me, er, read me, talk about the PPOBY? Well this is the opposite. Young Guy With Small Sample Size. Or, conveniently, a YGWSSS. I like Jennings fine as a player, actually, but the love has gone too far, as it were. He has speed, which will always provide value, and I think the power seems to finally be coming in for the 25 year old. But you can't tell me he doesn't have batting average risk. (Hit just .275 and .278 in his past two seasons at Triple A, contact rate has been trending downward).


Let's do three more blind resumes:


Player C: .256, 82 Runs, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 37 SB
Player D: .243, 92 Runs, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 40 SB
Player E: .264, 82 Runs, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 40 SB


So "Player C" is actually our ESPN projections for Desmond Jennings this year. I think very fair. Full playing time, solid power, great speed ... maybe a little low on the runs depending on how you feel the Rays offense will do as a whole, but more or less right in line with the projections I have seen for him elsewhere. And certainly, the numbers aren't any better than players D or E.


Player D is Drew Stubbs last season, currently going in the 13th round, basically three rounds after Jennings is this year. And Player E? Less power, for sure, but is that difference in power worth six rounds? Because Player E is Cameron Maybin's breakout season, and he is currently going in round 16. Stubbs and Maybin have some risk, sure, but certainly are more proven than Jennings and they cost a lot less.


Jeremy Hellickson, P, Rays (11th round, 15th or later): A K/9 of under six, a BB/9 of over three, a FIP of 4.44, an xFIP of 4.72, a LOB % of 82 percent (second-highest in the majors last year) … What's the opposite of a sabermetric darling? A gargoyle? A pariah? A.J. Burnett? Call him the Britney of fantasy. Looked pretty for a while but when it comes crashing down to earth, you want to be nowhere near that.


Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees (11th/12th round, 14th): On the plus side, after he does you in this season, you get a signed ball and gift basket.


Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers (13th/14th round, 15th/16th): So, since 2009, Ethier's home run totals have gone from 31 to 23 to 11. Along with it, his isolated power numbers; .237, .201,.129. And just for fun, here are his RBIs the past three seasons: 106, 82, 62. I'm not going to speculate why he has lost his power except to say I don't much like it. He has no speed, he's had 71 runs or fewer each of the past two seasons despite getting over 550 plate appearances each season, and he'll be on the wrong side of 30 this April. He'll hit for average, but even if the power comes back to the 20-homer level, he's basically a two-category guy who is costing you much more than he should.


Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles (15th round, 16th or later): Every year I put Nick Markakis on my hate list. And every year, he makes me look good. Last three seasons, he has never been higher than 88th on the Player Rater, including an exciting 119 finish in 2010 (after being drafted around 70). Let's see if we can get a four-peat.


Doug Fister, SP, Tigers (16th, 17th or later): "Fister on to relieve Verlander, who just could not get out of the inning. Many folks wondering why they would go to another starter in this situation but they don't realize it works much better for the joke. Here's the sinker now and Ichiro slaps it down the line to first, which should be an easy -- and it's by Fielder! One run is in, two runs are in, everyone's safe and… wait, what's this? Rick Porcello has suddenly jumped the fence and is now driving away from the stadium in a golf cart! Someone get him! He's got to warm up! …"


Others receiving votes


Decided to end it at 16 rounds because honestly, it's hard to say you're overpaying on a 17th-round pick. But here are some guys that, while I don't "hate," I do think there are better options around where they're generally being drafted. Slight dislike, if you will.
Clay Buchholz, Curtis Granderson (if you believe how he hits left-handers is legit, never mind), Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder (if you're expecting over 35 home runs), Luke Hochevar, Bobby Abreu (per Mark Simon, the average fly ball hit by Abreu in 2010 traveled 320 feet. In 2011, the average fly ball that he hit traveled 300 feet), Yoenis Cespedes, Chone Figgins, Yu Darvish (bet he rocks in the first half and fades badly), Jason Bay on principle, Ian Stewart, Alfonso Soriano, Lance Berkman will fall short of last year, Rafael Furcal, Trevor Cahill, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Carlos Quentin, Mark Ellis.


And that's a wrap for the preseason Love/Hate. Be sure to listen to the podcasts, read future articles, follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates to this list, as I am sure it will change throughout spring training. Good luck in your drafts and/or auctions this year. And, you know, be excellent to each other. And party on.

 

[HacheMan]

Endgame upside picks: Roberts, Gamel ...

Eric Karabell

There are 26 rounds in a standard ESPN fantasy draft, and at 10 teams each, that's 260 players. However, as one can see from the ESPN average live draft results by position, that leaves plenty of interesting players for free agency (anything after No. 260). Of course, some people play in deeper leagues, such as 12-team leagues, or 16-teamers, AL- and NL-only formats … you get the point.


Each league and each draft is different, and strategy often depends on league rules and other factors, but for those in standard leagues who are approaching the final rounds, there's no reason to avoid taking chances with upside picks. These are the potential wild-card choices that can make an owner look smart -- wow, who knew all three Kansas City Royals outfielders would be top-30 hitters! -- and hey, if they stink in mid-April, just move on to someone else!
We're talking last-round picks here, the ultimate risk/reward choices. The theory is if you think Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco is the pending NL Rookie of the Year, why not take the upside pick when safer veterans such as Kurt Suzuki and A.J. Pierzynski are likely sitting on the free-agent wire in April? It's why I spent $2 on real-life free agent Roy Oswalt late in the LABR NL-only auction Sunday. Sure, I could have had John Lannan (and I do, after drafting him in the reserve round), but which guy has more upside?Let's go around the diamond with enticing wild-card picks, but in order to be considered, these players cannot be among the top 260 in ESPN average live drafts. That excludes the ultimate upside hitters, mega-prospects Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, in case you were wondering. We'll avoid catcher, since only 10 are necessary for standard formats in the first place (Mesoraco would be my choice, along with perhaps Wilin Rosario of the Colorado Rockies.)


First base: There are certainly young players here who will -- and should -- be selected in deeper leagues, such as Justin Smoak and Brandon Allen, and I remain intrigued by Jesus Guzman in San Diego. You know who else fits the description here? Aubrey Huff. In 2010, he hit 26 home runs, knocked in 86 runs and hit .290. It was clearly unexpected, since he wasn't drafted in most leagues that season. The same thing could happen this year. It seems owners aren't fans of him anymore after he continued his annoying trend of year-to-year inconsistency with a disappointing 2011 … but it's an even-numbered year.
Second base: Unfortunately, it's looking like Brian Roberts of the Baltimore Orioles will never be the same fantasy contributor he once was; a concussion ruined his 2011 season, and he has played 98 games total over the past two seasons. In 2009, Roberts was outstanding, hitting 16 home runs, leading the league in doubles and stealing 30 bases. Justin Morneau, also being held back by concussion symptoms, is going in the 22nd round. So why is Roberts not being chosen at all?
Shortstop: Back to the young fellas, if you don't mind. I happen to think presumed Cincinnati Reds starter Zack Cozart isn't a great fit for the team's No. 2 lineup slot. We at ESPN Fantasy project a .290 on-base percentage for him. Yuck. However, he's also a threat to hit double digits in both home runs and stolen bases. Also, Tyler Pastornicky should start in Atlanta, and I could see more than 20 stolen bases from him. I like new Houston Astros starter Jed Lowrie the most, though. Durability has been a problem for him, but there is interesting power upside there. I'm a bit surprised none of these three young players are being widely drafted, knowing how scarce the middle infield choices are.
Third base: Well, in how many blog entries can I discuss Mat Gamel of the Milwaukee Brewers? He's starting at first base, and is eligible at third. I'd take him over a few of the first basemen being drafted, such as Mike Carp, James Loney and Mitch Moreland. Two other forgotten players are Pedro Alvarez in Pittsburgh and Chone Figgins of the Mariners. Alvarez had a miserable 2011 season; I can't spin it positively in any way. But he's also 25, and a year ago he was projected for 25 home runs. One would think the Pirates will play him. The home run Alvarez smacked in spring training Wednesday seemed like a nice start. Speaking of starting, Figgins might be doing so and hitting leadoff in the process. OK, so it's not a good lineup, but he did steal 42 bases in both 2009 and 2010. If healthy, perhaps the speed and some semblance of his on-base ability returns.Outfield: I expected to find many relevant names at this deep position, but then again, there are 67 outfielders being chosen in standard leagues. I do think longtime minor leaguer Bryan LaHair, now penciled in to start for the Chicago Cubs at first base, is somewhat legitimate. Lorenzo Cain, Dayan Viciedo, Rajai Davis, Jerry Sands, Casper Wells and Kyle Blanks also seem like last-rounders worth a look, but in a 10-team league, there's really no need.


Starting pitcher: Anyone else at all surprised that Philip Humber and Josh Collmenter aren't being drafted in the top 260? Of course, I see some regression coming, and Ryan Vogelsong belongs in this conversation as well, but I'd at least take the chance late. A few young guys are candidates here as risk/reward types late, including Drew Pomeranz, Jacob Turner, Jarrod Parker, Jordan Lyles, Brian Matusz and Kyle Drabek. If they start slowly, dump 'em, but each has some degree of major upside. Also, I can't help but wonder, in an Aubrey Huff sort of way, what Edinson Volquez can do with Petco Park as his new home. Relief pitcher: I don't see any lock closers going undrafted, but I'd keep an eye on how Cleveland Indians right-hander Chris Perez progresses from his oblique strain. Vinnie Pestano is worth a look in April, and stranger things have happened than him keeping the job. Also, Sean Marshall backs up a closer (Ryan Madson) currently dealing with a sore elbow. Sometimes sore elbows become major problems. Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton and Kris Medlen, as a potential starter in Atlanta, also jump out to me.

 

[HacheMan]

Concern Over Carp?

The Cardinals have understandably brought Chris Carpenter along slowly this spring after he tossed a career-high 273 1/3 innings last year between the regular season and the postseason, but another variable was recently thrown into the mix which could impact his availability for a possible Opening Day assignment.

Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Thursday that Carpenter has been dealing with persistent neck stiffness for the past 5-6 days. The Cardinals are said to be "minimizing the situation," but the malady caused the veteran right-hander to skip a scheduled throwing session on Wednesday. It's a little early to panic, but if he can't make his Grapefruit League debut as scheduled on Monday or even sometime later next week, the calendar may soon become an issue.

Even if Carpenter's neck issue turns out to be a minor blip and he pitches Opening Day as expected, this might be the proper time to ask whether he's worth the hefty investment in fantasy leagues this season. Remember, he turns 37 in April and already has a lengthy injury history. Coming off the unprecedented workload, I'd rather let someone else deal with the potential disappointment.

For the latest MLB rankings, projections, prospect analysis and more, get Rotoworld's Baseball Draft Guide.

Wainwright Returns

While one Cardinals' pitcher is ailing, another is on the comeback trail.

Adam Wainwright, who missed the entire 2011 season following Tommy John surgery, is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut Friday afternoon against the Twins. It will be his first appearance against major-league hitters since September 24, 2010.

There's been nothing but good news about Wainwright's rehabilitation so far this spring, which is quite a contrast to how his season crumbled on the practice fields of Jupiter, Florida almost exactly one year ago. The Cards' ace hasn't run into any setbacks with his surgically-repaired elbow and is throwing without any restrictions. The plan calls for him to make five starts during exhibition action in preparation for his season debut, which could happen against the division-rival Brewers on April 7.

The results on Friday aren't all that important, but it will be interesting to see where he is with his velocity and command. Pitchers often come back from Tommy John surgery stronger than they were before, so I wouldn't be surprised if his velocity isn't far off, but command is usually the last thing to come around post-op. It could take weeks or it could take months for him to look like the same dominating pitcher.

Based on Wainwright's ADP (average draft position), it doesn't seem as though fantasy owners are going to get much of a discount on draft day, so I would look to see if he gets off to a bit of a slow start and attempt to pounce.

Chapman Bullpen-bound?

Targeting Aroldis Chapman as a possible fantasy sleeper with a move to the starting rotation in mind? Listen up.

New Reds' closer Ryan Madson (elbow), set-up man Nick Masset (shoulder) and left-handed specialist Bill Bray (groin) are all sidelined at the moment. The injuries to Madson and Masset don't appear to be serious, but Bray had to be shut down after experiencing a setback during a bullpen session Wednesday and it's not clear when he'll throw again.

Chapman allowed one run and struck out three over two innings in his first start of the spring and is still scheduled to start Friday against the Giants, but Reds manager Dusty Baker told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer on Thursday that he hasn't dismissed the possibility of moving the hard-throwing left-hander back to the bullpen if Bray starts the season on the disabled list.

Chapman will have to pitch lights out this spring to beat Homer Bailey for the final spot in the rotation, anyway, so the most likely scenario is that he'll either continue working as a starter with Triple-A Louisville or make the move back to the bullpen. The status of Bray figures to be a pretty big factor for the Reds, who have designs on making a playoff run.

Well Dunn

Perhaps it's a little early to say Adam Dunn is back, but he honestly doesn't have to do much to improve upon his horrendous first season in a White Sox uniform.

The big slugger showed some promising signs Thursday afternoon against the Rangers, first taking right-hander Neftali Feliz deep for a three-run shot and later stroking an RBI double off left-hander Michael Kirkman. Dunn is 2-for-4 with three walks so far during Cactus League play and hasn't struck out in any of his seven plate appearances.

Obvious caveats about the incredibly small sample size, but as our own Matthew Pouliot noted on HardballTalk last night, Dunn fanned once every 2.8 plate appearances last season and was just 6-for-94 with one extra-base hit against left-handed pitching.

Many have tried to figure out why Dunn completely tanked last year and it seems as though moving to the DH spot after spending his entire career in the National League may have played a small part, but the White Sox also believe that his past offseason habits -- namely that he doesn't swing a bat over the winter -- didn't help matters. Dunn did swing a bat more often this offseason, so perhaps the early activity will pay some dividends.

Dunn is 32 years old now, so I seriously doubt we'll ever see the same guy who once hit 40 homers per season like clockwork, but I still think he can be useful in fantasy leagues. Playing his home games in the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field certainly helps his chances. After a season where he hit just .159 with 11 homers and a .569 OPS, the price tag for a potential rebound figures to be a modest one.

 

[HacheMan]

Endgame upside picks: Roberts, Gamel ...

Eric Karabell

There are 26 rounds in a standard ESPN fantasy draft, and at 10 teams each, that's 260 players. However, as one can see from the ESPN average live draft results by position, that leaves plenty of interesting players for free agency (anything after No. 260). Of course, some people play in deeper leagues, such as 12-team leagues, or 16-teamers, AL- and NL-only formats … you get the point.


Each league and each draft is different, and strategy often depends on league rules and other factors, but for those in standard leagues who are approaching the final rounds, there's no reason to avoid taking chances with upside picks. These are the potential wild-card choices that can make an owner look smart -- wow, who knew all three Kansas City Royals outfielders would be top-30 hitters! -- and hey, if they stink in mid-April, just move on to someone else!
We're talking last-round picks here, the ultimate risk/reward choices. The theory is if you think Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco is the pending NL Rookie of the Year, why not take the upside pick when safer veterans such as Kurt Suzuki and A.J. Pierzynski are likely sitting on the free-agent wire in April? It's why I spent $2 on real-life free agent Roy Oswalt late in the LABR NL-only auction Sunday. Sure, I could have had John Lannan (and I do, after drafting him in the reserve round), but which guy has more upside?Let's go around the diamond with enticing wild-card picks, but in order to be considered, these players cannot be among the top 260 in ESPN average live drafts. That excludes the ultimate upside hitters, mega-prospects Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, in case you were wondering. We'll avoid catcher, since only 10 are necessary for standard formats in the first place (Mesoraco would be my choice, along with perhaps Wilin Rosario of the Colorado Rockies.)


First base: There are certainly young players here who will -- and should -- be selected in deeper leagues, such as Justin Smoak and Brandon Allen, and I remain intrigued by Jesus Guzman in San Diego. You know who else fits the description here? Aubrey Huff. In 2010, he hit 26 home runs, knocked in 86 runs and hit .290. It was clearly unexpected, since he wasn't drafted in most leagues that season. The same thing could happen this year. It seems owners aren't fans of him anymore after he continued his annoying trend of year-to-year inconsistency with a disappointing 2011 … but it's an even-numbered year.
Second base: Unfortunately, it's looking like Brian Roberts of the Baltimore Orioles will never be the same fantasy contributor he once was; a concussion ruined his 2011 season, and he has played 98 games total over the past two seasons. In 2009, Roberts was outstanding, hitting 16 home runs, leading the league in doubles and stealing 30 bases. Justin Morneau, also being held back by concussion symptoms, is going in the 22nd round. So why is Roberts not being chosen at all?
Shortstop: Back to the young fellas, if you don't mind. I happen to think presumed Cincinnati Reds starter Zack Cozart isn't a great fit for the team's No. 2 lineup slot. We at ESPN Fantasy project a .290 on-base percentage for him. Yuck. However, he's also a threat to hit double digits in both home runs and stolen bases. Also, Tyler Pastornicky should start in Atlanta, and I could see more than 20 stolen bases from him. I like new Houston Astros starter Jed Lowrie the most, though. Durability has been a problem for him, but there is interesting power upside there. I'm a bit surprised none of these three young players are being widely drafted, knowing how scarce the middle infield choices are.
Third base: Well, in how many blog entries can I discuss Mat Gamel of the Milwaukee Brewers? He's starting at first base, and is eligible at third. I'd take him over a few of the first basemen being drafted, such as Mike Carp, James Loney and Mitch Moreland. Two other forgotten players are Pedro Alvarez in Pittsburgh and Chone Figgins of the Mariners. Alvarez had a miserable 2011 season; I can't spin it positively in any way. But he's also 25, and a year ago he was projected for 25 home runs. One would think the Pirates will play him. The home run Alvarez smacked in spring training Wednesday seemed like a nice start. Speaking of starting, Figgins might be doing so and hitting leadoff in the process. OK, so it's not a good lineup, but he did steal 42 bases in both 2009 and 2010. If healthy, perhaps the speed and some semblance of his on-base ability returns.Outfield: I expected to find many relevant names at this deep position, but then again, there are 67 outfielders being chosen in standard leagues. I do think longtime minor leaguer Bryan LaHair, now penciled in to start for the Chicago Cubs at first base, is somewhat legitimate. Lorenzo Cain, Dayan Viciedo, Rajai Davis, Jerry Sands, Casper Wells and Kyle Blanks also seem like last-rounders worth a look, but in a 10-team league, there's really no need.


Starting pitcher: Anyone else at all surprised that Philip Humber and Josh Collmenter aren't being drafted in the top 260? Of course, I see some regression coming, and Ryan Vogelsong belongs in this conversation as well, but I'd at least take the chance late. A few young guys are candidates here as risk/reward types late, including Drew Pomeranz, Jacob Turner, Jarrod Parker, Jordan Lyles, Brian Matusz and Kyle Drabek. If they start slowly, dump 'em, but each has some degree of major upside. Also, I can't help but wonder, in an Aubrey Huff sort of way, what Edinson Volquez can do with Petco Park as his new home. Relief pitcher: I don't see any lock closers going undrafted, but I'd keep an eye on how Cleveland Indians right-hander Chris Perez progresses from his oblique strain. Vinnie Pestano is worth a look in April, and stranger things have happened than him keeping the job. Also, Sean Marshall backs up a closer (Ryan Madson) currently dealing with a sore elbow. Sometimes sore elbows become major problems. Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton and Kris Medlen, as a potential starter in Atlanta, also jump out to me.

 

[HacheMan]

Mock Draft 2.0: H2H points league

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

There's more than one way to play fantasy baseball. While the game may have started out with the premise that players should be able to contribute in multiple categories such as home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs scored, wins, saves, ERA and WHIP, that's not the only option at your league's disposal.


As fantasy football has increased in popularity, more and more leagues have taken to using some form of head-to-head points system for fantasy baseball as well. In this kind of scoring format, each player's production is boiled down to a single value. Regardless of exactly how each player earns his points, they all count exactly the same.

While most elite players retain that coveted status regardless of format, playing head-to-head points forces you to take a closer look at players whose value might be vastly different than it is in leagues where you need to worry about individual contributions being spread out over multiple categories.


Ten drafters gathered on March 6 for the purpose of seeing what different strategies would emerge as we, the ESPN.com Fantasy team, held our second mock draft of the 2012 season. In first-round order, the participants were as follows: Shawn Cwalinski and Dave Hunter of The Answer Guys, fantasy analysts Tristan H. Cockcroft, fantasy contributor Brian Gramling, myself, fantasy editor Brendan Roberts, fantasy contributor Todd Zola, fantasy analyst Eric Karabell and fantasy editors Pierre Becquey and James Quintong at the tail of the snake.



So, let's take a look at how a vastly different set of rules (in this case, ESPN standard points league scoring) changes the draft pecking order with an analysis of our Mock Draft 2.0. To see each team's final draft haul, click here.


ROUND 1

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Miguel Cabrera, Det, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 2 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Albert Pujols, LAA, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 3 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Ryan Braun, Mil, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 4 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Matt Kemp, LAD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 5 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Jose Bautista, Tor, 3B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Robinson Cano, NYY, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 7 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Roy Halladay, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 8 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Troy Tulowitzki, Col, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 9 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 10 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos, 1B </td></tr></tbody></table>

No huge surprises at the top of the draft, with usual suspects Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun going off the board with the first three picks. A reminder that for hitters, points are awarded as follows: one point for each total base (a single = 1, double = 2, etc.) as well as one point for each run scored, stolen base, walk and RBI. In addition, a point is subtracted for each strikeout.


It's that deduction for strikeouts that makes Matt Kemp a bit of a question mark at No. 4, in my opinion. After all, we're talking about an average of 155 points lost as a result of whiffs over the past four seasons from the Dodgers' outfielder. But Gramling was undeterred, "Kemp says he's aiming for 50 homers and 50 steals in 2012, and has played over 155 games with 600-plus at-bats in each of the past four seasons. That weekly reliability is key for head-to-head leagues." It's a fair point. Players with a history of brittleness need to be selected carefully, given that you need consistent contribution from your lineup all season long in a league where stats "reset" weekly.
My pick at No. 5 was Jose Bautista. Although Joey Bats struck out 111 times last season, he wasn't really hurt from a points perspective the way Kemp was because he walked even more often -- 132 times in 2011. Bautista was one of only ten players with a walk-to-strikeout rate over 1.00 (minimum 400 at-bats) and when you throw on top of that another expected 40-home run season, he was far too valuable to pass on here.


ROUND 2

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 11 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Dustin Pedroia, Bos, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 12 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Joey Votto, Cin, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 13 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Ian Kinsler, Tex, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 14 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Prince Fielder, Det, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 15 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Evan Longoria, TB, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 16 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 17 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Carlos Gonzalez, Col, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 18 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Justin Upton, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 19 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Justin Verlander, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 20 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Felix Hernandez, Sea, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>



Let's take a quick look at pitcher scoring in ESPN standard: each out a pitcher records is worth one point, with an extra point awarded for each strikeout. Walks and hits dock you a point apiece, while an earned run gives you a two-point deduction. Additionally, for those considering closers, a save is worth five points.


This season, we've lowered the value of a win from ten points down to five to lessen the impact of starting pitchers and level the playing field between hitting and pitching. (You can read more about that decision in my Points League primer. A loss is still worth negative-5, so you do want to be careful of pitchers on teams that lose more than they win; a hard-luck 2-1 loss is still a loss. Still, with half of the 2012 top 20 overall points leaders expected to be starting pitchers, it should come as no surprise that several of them went off the board in Round 2.


I went with Clayton Kershaw, whom I rank slightly ahead of Justin Verlander, though it's pretty much a coin toss. Hunter ended up taking the Tigers ace two picks later, leaving Felix Hernandez to Cwalinski, who seemed to be unconcerned about the fact that the King might not win as much as other pitchers still on the board.


He explains, "Taking Hernandez as my first pitcher was a tough call. I know he is not going to get 20 wins but I look at the skills and I had to take him. I'll gladly take 220 strikeouts and fewer than 70 walks in 230 innings as the foundation for my pitching staff. Plus, it's not like his offense could help him less in 2012." If Cwalinski is right, then perhaps Hernandez' win-loss record will tilt a little more towards wins than it did with last season's 14-14 mark. If here were to hit his ESPN projection of 16-12, that would be a 40-point swing in his favor.


ROUND 3

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 21 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Jose Reyes, Mia, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 22 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Cliff Lee, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 23 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Adrian Beltre, Tex, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 24 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Hanley Ramirez, Mia, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 25 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Mark Teixeira, NYY, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 26 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Andrew McCutchen, Pit, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 27 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Matt Holliday, StL, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 28 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Curtis Granderson, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 29 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Jered Weaver, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 30 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Tim Lincecum, SF, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 4

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 31 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 32 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Dan Haren, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 33 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Cole Hamels, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 34 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Brandon Phillips, Cin, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 35 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> CC Sabathia, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 36 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Craig Kimbrel, Atl, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 37 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Dan Uggla, Atl, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 38 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Jimmy Rollins, Phi, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 39 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Ben Zobrist, TB, 2B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 40 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Zack Greinke, Mil, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>



With the next 20 picks, seven more starters went off the board with Zack Greinke going at No. 40 overall. Coincidentally, that was exactly where he went in our Mock 1.0. It seems to me that our drafters were well aware of the increased value of pitchers and the need to make sure you had at least one ace in the fold early in the proceedings. Quintong had this to say about his selection of Lincecum at the end of Round 3: "I was wondering if I would just load up on hitters for my first 4-6 picks then go pitching, but I think I also wanted a potential high-strikeout stud to anchor my staff, so in came 'The Freak.'"


Yet what surprised me was that only Becquey decided to go with the strategy of loading up on more than one of these aces. After all, with no need to worry about team balance, why not simply grab the players who are more likely to get you the most points, regardless of position? Becquey selected Jered Weaver in Round 3, Dan Haren in Round 4 and would then grab Yovani Gallardo in Round 5, creating a formidable rotation.


Also going off the board in these two rounds were six middle infielders, compared with zero such selection in Mock 1.0 at this stage of the draft. The reason is simple: a home run is worth at least six points and as many as nine (four total bases plus a run and however many RBIs). A stolen base is one point.


That completely elevates 15-15 guys at these positions (like Jimmy Rollins, Ben Zobrist and Brandon Phillips) over steal- only guys like Elvis Andrus and Dee Gordon to the point it makes sense to grab them sooner rather than later.


As for me, after selecting the last remaining first baseman in my upper tier, Mark Teixeira, I took closer Craig Kimbrel in Round 4. Kimbrel may well be the only reliever to finish the season in the top 40 scoring pitchers, and there's a very good chance he ends up in the top 20. There was no way I was waiting any longer to grab him, but I'll have more to say about that when we get to Round 9.


ROUND 5

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 41 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Josh Hamilton, Tex, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 42 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Hunter Pence, Phi, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 43 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Carlos Santana, Cle, C, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 44 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Matt Cain, SF, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 45 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Shane Victorino, Phi, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 46 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> David Price, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 47 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Jon Lester, Bos, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 48 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> David Wright, NYM, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 49 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Yovani Gallardo, Mil, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 50 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Pablo Sandoval, SF, 3B </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 6

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 51 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> James Shields, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 52 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Paul Konerko, CWS, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 53 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Eric Hosmer, KC, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 54 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Michael Young, Tex, 1B, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 55 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Starlin Castro, ChC, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 56 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Billy Butler, KC, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 57 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Mike Napoli, Tex, C, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 58 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Jay Bruce, Cin, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 59 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Ryan Zimmerman, Was, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 60 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> C.J. Wilson, LAA, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 7

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 61 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Elvis Andrus, Tex, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 62 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Matt Moore, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 63 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Jonathan Papelbon, Phi, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 64 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Lance Berkman, StL, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 65 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Carlos Lee, Hou, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 66 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Ian Kennedy, Ari, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 67 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Michael Cuddyer, Col, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 68 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Brett Lawrie, Tor, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 69 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Marco Scutaro, Col, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 70 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Nelson Cruz, Tex, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 8

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 71 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Nick Markakis, Bal, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 72 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Ricky Romero, Tor, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 73 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> David Ortiz, Bos, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 74 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Daniel Hudson, Ari, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 75 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Aramis Ramirez, Mil, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 76 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Carlos Beltran, StL, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 77 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Stephen Strasburg, Was, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 78 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Kevin Youkilis, Bos, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 79 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Joe Mauer, Min, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 80 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Alex Rodriguez, NYY, 3B </td></tr></tbody></table>



We see lots of corners being grabbed in Rounds 5 and 6, as well as the first two catchers (Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli) of the draft. Santana's value gets a bump as a result of the huge gap between his batting average and his on-base percentage (.112 difference), which is important because walks are just as valuable as singles in points leagues.
Karabell reaches a bit, in my opinion, for David Wright, but even though he recognizes that the third baseman has less value in points leagues due to his BB/K rate, he doesn't let it affect his call here: "I've got Wright in my second round for standard drafts, and while he's not quite worth that here, if you believe in a player you believe in a player. To get him at the end of Round 5 and fill a starting spot seemed generous. Hopefully he can cut those strikeouts some."Billy Butler gets undervalued in 5x5 leagues because his doubles amount to almost nothing. In points leagues, total bases count and two doubles are worth twice as much as a single. Butler is projected to finish in the top 25 in total bases and if only a few of those two-baggers end up clearing the wall, he's going to be a huge points league asset. Even though you have to slot him in at your utility spot, I think it's worth it.


In Round 7, Zola opts for Michael Cuddyer, which is great value. However, he still regrets the pick. "I don't feel I am overvaluing him because of the move to Colorado, but I do feel many are undervaluing him, probably because he was always undervalued and it is a residual effect. But I really wanted both Cuddyer and Marco Scutaro, whom is really favored by this scoring system."
Zola basically guessed wrong, as Becquey snatched up Scutaro in the six pick stretch before Zola was on the clock again. That will happen, and while there's no way of knowing for sure if he would have ended up with both had the picks been flipped, had he the chance to do it all again, Zola would have rather gone with Scutaro. "I was scrambling for a shortstop the rest of the draft, whereas if I had taken Scutaro and missed out on Cuddyer, I would have been able to find an outfielder or first baseman much easier."


ROUND 10

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 91 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Derek Jeter, NYY, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 92 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Chris Carpenter, StL, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 93 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Madison Bumgarner, SF, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 94 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Josh Beckett, Bos, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 95 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 96 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Melky Cabrera, SF, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 97 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Carl Crawford, Bos, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 98 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Drew Storen, Was, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 99 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Michael Pineda, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 100 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 11

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 101 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Matt Wieters, Bal, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 102 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Tommy Hanson, Atl, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 103 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> John Axford, Mil, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 104 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Jeremy Hellickson, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 105 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Huston Street, SD, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 106 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Mat Latos, Cin, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 107 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Brandon Beachy, Atl, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 108 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Ichiro Suzuki, Sea, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 109 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Neil Walker, Pit, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 110 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Matt Garza, ChC, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 12

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 111 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Adam Wainwright, StL, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 112 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 113 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Jordan Zimmermann, Was, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 114 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Gaby Sanchez, Mia, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 115 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Yu Darvish, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 116 </td><td> Mass </td><td> J.J. Putz, Ari, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 117 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Ryan Madson, Cin, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 118 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Logan Morrison, Mia, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 119 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Anibal Sanchez, Mia, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 120 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Martin Prado, Atl, 3B, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>



So let's talk strategy here. After I picked Kimbrel at No. 36, the only other closer to go off the board was Jonathan Papelbon at No. 63, to Cockcroft. A quick look at my picks in these rounds shows where my head is at: Brian Wilson, Huston Street and J.J. Putz, all closers. In a 5x5 league, this would be suicidal, but in a weekly head-to-head points league, it's just good sense. Top closers are likely to have three chances at a save each and every week, and if you have a staff consisting of six or seven of them, that's a chance at perhaps as many as 21 saves in one scoring period, each worth five points. Compare that to a team of ace starters, who will pitch at most twice a week, and rarely more than three times over two consecutive weeks. That's a huge difference in points.


As it turns out, I was not the only person with an eye on this strategy, as I learned after the fact from Cockcroft: "I went into the draft with a specific strategy; take the one "ace" starter (think a top-10 guy ) that I can get at a reasonable rate, pair him with 4-5 closers in the Rounds 8-12 range and spend the entire remainder of the draft addressing the offense. There was only one problem with this plan -- Mass! He employed largely the same strategy except he actually GOT that ace that I didn't in the form of Clayton Kershaw."


With his picks of Drew Storen, John Axford and Joel Hanrahan effectively mirroring mine, it certainly was clear at this point that we were the only ones embracing this philosophy. Becquey went the other route, adding to his already stocked starting staff with Ricky Romero, Chris Carpenter and Ubaldo Jimenez. This strategy certainly can work, but one needs to keep in mind that there is a 12-start cap on your pitching staff each week, so you do have to be careful not to shun relievers altogether.


ROUND 13

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 121 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Desmond Jennings, TB, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 122 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> J.J. Hardy, Bal, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 123 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Joel Hanrahan, Pit, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 124 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Jason Heyward, Atl, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 125 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Nick Swisher, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 126 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Chris Young, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 127 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Max Scherzer, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 128 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Josh Johnson, Mia, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 129 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Ryan Roberts, Ari, 2B, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 130 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Jayson Werth, Was, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 14

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 131 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Heath Bell, Mia, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 132 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Mike Moustakas, KC, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 133 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Adam Jones, Bal, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 134 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Miguel Montero, Ari, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 135 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Jose Valverde, Det, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 136 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Rickie Weeks, Mil, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 137 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Adam Lind, Tor, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 138 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Andre Ethier, LAD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 139 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> B.J. Upton, TB, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 140 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Gio Gonzalez, Was, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 15

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 141 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 142 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Brett Gardner, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 143 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Freddie Freeman, Atl, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 144 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Cory Luebke, SD, SP, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 145 </td><td> Meyers </td><td> Erick Aybar, LAA, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 146 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Buster Posey, SF, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 147 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Jose Valverde, Det, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 148 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Ervin Santana, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 149 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Cory Luebke, SD, SP, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 150 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Jaime Garcia, StL, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 16

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 151 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Coco Crisp, Oak, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 152 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Rafael Betancourt, Col, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 153 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Torii Hunter, LAA, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 154 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> James Loney, LAD, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 155 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Dee Gordon, LAD, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 156 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Yadier Molina, StL, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 157 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Carlos Lee, Hou, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 158 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Nick Swisher, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 159 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Carlos Marmol, ChC, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 160 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Jaime Garcia, StL, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>




With all the emphasis on grabbing pitching in a points league, the outfield position gets pushed to the back burner. Evidence of this is clear as players like Desmond Jennings (No. 121, Cwalinski), Jason Heyward (No. 124, Gramling) and Adam Jones (No, 133, Karabell) all go off the board well later in this draft than in Mock 1.0, where all three were gone by pick No. 92. While I end up perfectly happy with my picks of Nick Swisher (a .114 OPS surge) and the potential of 20-home runs up the middle from Rickie Weeks, Jason Kipnis and Buster Posey, other owners finally give in and start to select whatever closers Cockcroft and I had not yet snatched up.
Of course, by this point, many of them probably wondered if they should even bother. As Karabell put it, "I'm not even sure why I chose Rafael Betancourt. After all, there's no need to worry about saves, and all of my other pitchers are starters, some with upside, some safe." In other words, once all the cows have left the barn, why are we bothering to shut that barn door?


ROUND 17

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 161 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Tim Hudson, Atl, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 162 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Justin Masterson, Cle, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 163 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Brandon Morrow, Tor, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 164 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Jeff Francoeur, KC, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 165 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Jeff Francoeur, KC, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 166 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Jordan Walden, LAA, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 167 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Howard Kendrick, LAA, 2B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 168 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Johnny Cueto, Cin, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 169 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Jason Kipnis, Cle, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 170 </td><td> Meyers </td><td> Brandon Morrow, Tor, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 18

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 171 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Andrew Bailey, Bos, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 172 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Ervin Santana, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 173 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Jason Motte, StL, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 174 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Gaby Sanchez, Mia, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 175 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Angel Pagan, SF, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 176 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Martin Prado, Atl, 3B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 177 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Joakim Soria, KC, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 178 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Cameron Maybin, SD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 179 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Colby Lewis, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 180 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Johnny Cueto, Cin, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 19

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 181 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Jason Motte, StL, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 182 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Yunel Escobar, Tor, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 183 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Andrew Bailey, Bos, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 184 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Shaun Marcum, Mil, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 185 </td><td> Meyers </td><td> Angel Pagan, SF, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 186 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Erick Aybar, LAA, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 187 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Melky Cabrera, SF, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 188 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Jordan Walden, LAA, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 189 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Mike Moustakas, KC, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 190 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Jhonny Peralta, Det, SS </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 20

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 191 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 192 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Brandon McCarthy, Oak, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 193 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Ted Lilly, LAD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 194 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Jesus Montero, Sea, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 195 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Neftali Feliz, Tex, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 196 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Ike Davis, NYM, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 197 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Carlos Marmol, ChC, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 198 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia, SS, 3B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 199 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Daniel Murphy, NYM, 2B, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 200 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Alex Rios, CWS, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 21

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 201 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Colby Lewis, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 202 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Josh Willingham, Min, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 203 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Ted Lilly, LAD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 204 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Joakim Soria, KC, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 205 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Aaron Hill, Ari, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 206 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Marco Scutaro, Col, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 207 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Scott Baker, Min, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 208 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Neil Walker, Pit, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 209 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Kyle Farnsworth, TB, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 210 </td><td> Meyers </td><td> Kyle Farnsworth, TB, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 22

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 211 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Dee Gordon, LAD, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 212 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Paul Goldschmidt, Ari, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 213 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Colby Rasmus, Tor, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 214 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Jason Kubel, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 215 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Ryan Howard, Phi, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 216 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Jemile Weeks, Oak, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 217 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Mark Reynolds, Bal, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 218 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Lucas Duda, NYM, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 219 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Brandon League, Sea, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 220 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Alex Rios, CWS, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 23

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 221 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Doug Fister, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 222 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Joe Nathan, Tex, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 223 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Brandon McCarthy, Oak, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 224 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Neftali Feliz, Tex, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 225 </td><td> Meyers </td><td> Lucas Duda, NYM, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 226 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Brandon League, Sea, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 227 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Huston Street, SD, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 228 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Torii Hunter, LAA, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 229 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Delmon Young, Det, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 230 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 24

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 231 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Jesus Montero, Sea, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 232 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Doug Fister, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 233 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Peter Bourjos, LAA, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 234 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Jason Kubel, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 235 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Kelly Johnson, Tor, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 236 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Ryan Dempster, ChC, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 237 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Jason Kipnis, Cle, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 238 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Daniel Murphy, NYM, 2B, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 239 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Bud Norris, Hou, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 240 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> David Freese, StL, 3B </td></tr></tbody></table>

h4> ROUND 25 <table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 241 </td><td> Becquey </td><td> Justin Masterson, Cle, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 242 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Tim Stauffer, SD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 243 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> John Danks, CWS, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 244 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Tim Hudson, Atl, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 245 </td><td> Zola </td><td> Michael Brantley, Cle, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 246 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 247 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 248 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Yadier Molina, StL, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 249 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Coco Crisp, Oak, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 250 </td><td> Meyers </td><td> Joe Nathan, Tex, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>



In the remaining rounds, most of the work is to simply fill in the remaining spots in your starting lineup. For me, that meant grabbing Erick Aybar for my shortstop and Coco Crisp as my final outfielder.


With Aybar, I was forced to reach because Cockcroft grabbed Yunel Escobar two picks before me in Round 17. Had I gotten Escobar, I'd have managed to secure two players at the tail end of the top 150 at good value, but overall I'm not too upset with how thing shook out. Roberts, on the other hand, had seen players he wanted getting snatched up just before he was under the gun all draft long. By the time he finally decided to pull the trigger, the cupboard had nearly been picked clean. "I really wanted Mark Teixeira to fall to me in Round 3, really could have used Lance Berkman in Round 7 and then Gaby Sanchez in Round 12 & see a theme? Yup, I ended with Edwin Encarnacion (Round 20) in my 1B slot. Uggh!"


This is also the time to start considering taking chances on injured players like Ryan Howard, who went to Hunter at pick No. 179. Sure, there's a chance he won't be able to play at all in 2012, but in a weekly head-to-head league, it doesn't matter what his final stat line for the season might be. When he does return to action, he starts on a level playing field from that point forward. If your league has a DL spot, why not stash him there?


Gramling did the same kind of speculating by grabbing free agent pitcher Roy Oswalt in Round 24, who is unlikely to even sign with a team before the All-Star Break. However, like Manny Ramirez, who is facing a 50-game suspension before he will be allowed to suit up for Oakland and did not get picked, he will be ineligible to be placed in the DL slot. With only three bench spots, that kind of gamble is not to be undertaken lightly, though the move could pay huge dividends down the line if everything falls just right.

 

[HacheMan]

Game On For Morales

Kendrys Morales hasn’t played in a game of any kind since shattering his leg during a walk-off grand slam celebration back on May 29 of 2010. Nearly 22 months later, he’s finally ready to pull that Halos uniform on again.



Morales was able to run the bases in spikes Sunday for the first time this spring, and he did so without any issues. Barring something unforeseen over the next couple days, he’s expected to participate in a Cactus League game by the middle of the week.



We would forgive you for not wanting to invest much in Morales given what’s happened with him over the last two years. But, luckily for you, the investment won’t cost you a whole lot. Morales’ current Average Draft Position (ADP) is around 220. As far as other first basemen go, that’s after Now, we must note that Morales doesn’t have a clear path to the designated hitter role even if he does happen to stay healthy, as the Angels -- assuming they don’t make any trades -- figure to use Mark Trumbo and Unless the doctor sees something he doesn’t like, he’s expected to give Hudson the go-ahead to begin throwing from the mound at full effort. The 36-year-old veteran has already been throwing lightly from the mound and hasn’t had any problems, but obviously it will be a bigger test when he really lets it loose.



As far as projected return date of late April or early May, Hudson doesn’t see that being a problem.



“I think [May 1] at the latest,” Hudson told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “It’d be hard to say [if he can return earlier] because I’ve got to build up to that. I could be back in April but it might be a four- or five-inning thing. April is my month of spring training games — unless I’m able to pitch sooner here [in camp] than we thought.”



Assuming Hudson is indeed cleared for full-out bullpen work, he’ll gradually build up his stamina so that he’s hopefully ready to appear in minor league games starting in April. He shouldn’t need more than four starts or so before he’s ready to rejoin the Braves rotation.



Carp has bulging disc

​

D.J. Short first addressed

Chris Carpenter’s situation in But, while it doesn’t appear at this time that a lengthy stay on the disabled list (if there’s even one needed at all) will be necessary, the Cards are wisely preparing for the possibility that Carp will have a setback or simply won’t be ready for the start of the season. They haven’t divulged who exactly their “Plan B” is, but Lance Lynn, Kyle McClellan and Marc Rzepczynski are all options. Top prospect When Chris Perez first tweaked his oblique early on in camp, the Indians thought it would take him 4-6 weeks to make it back, putting Opening Day in serious jeopardy. Perez, though, said at the time that his planned to make it back to the mound by March 15 and had no doubt that he’d be ready by April 5.



As it turns out, his seemingly overly optimistic projection might not turn out to be such at all.



Perez has already been playing long-toss from 105 feet, and he will extend it to 120 feet on Monday. If that goes well, throwing off the mound is the next step.



"I feel good," Perez told MLB.com. "Right now, everything is based on how I'm feeling each day and I'm feeling really good."



The Indians have not yet announced when Perez could appear in a Cactus League game, but if he’s throwing off the mound by, say, Thursday, which was his target date of the 15^th, climbing atop the bump in spring training action can’t be too far behind. And, since he’s a reliever, he doesn’t need to build up stamina and will likely only need a handful of appearances to be ready for Opening Day.



If you have your draft soon, it might be a wise idea to go ahead and still protect Perez by also drafting Vinnie Pestano. But, things are looking good for the 2011 All-Star.​

 

[HacheMan]

Not So Chipper

Perhaps it's the lingering pain in his right knee. Maybe it's the frustration over going 0-for-8 to begin Grapefruit League play. Heck, it's probably some combination of both. But Chipper Jones sounds like a man who knows the end is near.

In some candid comments to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday, Jones said that he's not sure how much longer his body will allow him to continue playing.

“Tomorrow might be my last day," Jones told O'Brien. "I don’t know. I don’t really focus on it that much. The body is starting to tell me every morning when I wake up that it’s getting close. I’m signed through the end of this year. If I play in a certain amount of games, I got an option for next year. I don’t know what next year entails. I don’t know if I can make it through this year.”


Jones has hinted at the possibility of retirement multiple times over the past couple of years. However, he admitted Monday that this spring has been more challenging for him physically than when he was coming back from surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee this time last year. And rival talent evaluators are taking notice. In fact, one National League scout told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that the veteran third baseman "looks terrible." Perhaps Jones will change his tune after he gets a couple hits under his belt, but we can't assume anything from someone who turns 40 years old next month.

Jones is due to make $13 million this season in the final guaranteed year of a three-year, $42 million contract extension. His deal includes a $7 million club option for 2013 which vests automatically at $9 million if he appears in 123 games this season. The switch-hitter played in 126 games last season while batting .275/.344/.470 with 18 homers, 70 RBI and an .814 OPS.

Jones has never posted an OPS under .800 in any of his 18 major-league seasons, so I still think he can be useful in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues. But as always, be prepared to make some last-minute lineup changes and have a backup plan in place if he requires an extended absence. One thing I'm pretty confident about is that Rotoworld's Baseball Draft Guide.

Blake Scratched With Neck Stiffness

Speaking of aging and injury-prone third basemen, Casey Blake was scratched from Monday's lineup against the Padres due to neck stiffness. The good news is that the injury is considered minor and is not related to the season-ending neck surgery he had last September, but this is just the latest bump in the road during a disappointing start to the exhibition schedule.

Blake, who signed a non-guaranteed one-year, $2 million contract with Colorado over the winter, is 0-for-9 with four strikeouts over his first four Cactus League games. The 38-year-old is still the best short-term option at third base until top prospect Nolan Arenado is deemed ready for the big leagues, but it's difficult to count on him for much after he played in just 63 games last year and owns a lousy .249/.327/.397 batting line over the past two seasons. The prospect of playing his home games in Coors Field obviously helps his chances for a rebound, but he's strictly an NL-only option at this point.

Interestingly, while Blake has struggled so far this spring, former top prospect Brandon Wood has thrived by batting .438 (7-for-16) over his first eight games. He went 2-for-2 in place of Blake on Monday and finished a home run short of the cycle on Saturday. No, I'm not going to lose it over a bunch of spring training games. Wood still has a pathetic .186/.225/.289 batting line over 751 plate appearances in the majors. But he's certainly making a case to claim a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Fuentes or Balfour to Close for A's

This shouldn't come as much of a surprise to those who have tracked this situation over the past couple of months, but Athletics' manager Bob Melvin told Jane Lee of MLB.com on Monday that Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour are the favorites for the team's closer gig.

Fuentes might have the advantage on paper since he has 199 career saves to his name, but his velocity has dropped in each of the last three seasons. The 36-year-old left-hander averaged a career-low 6.5 K/9 in 2011. And that's not what you want from your ninth-inning man. Balfour got off to a shaky start this spring, but the 34-year-old Aussie looks like the superior option -- in real life and in fantasy terms -- after posting a quality 2.38 ERA and 115/37 K/BB ratio across 117 1/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Neither pitcher is worth more than late-round consideration in mixed formats, especially since they could become trade bait if (or when) the Athletics fall out of contention. With that in mind, be sure to keep an eye on 26-year-old right-hander Fautino De Los Santos, who posted a 4.32 ERA and struck out 43 batters over 33 1/3 innings as a rookie last season.

Roberto Hernandez Heredia to Have Charges Dropped

The Associated Press reported Monday evening that right-hander Roberto Hernandez Heredia (formerly known as Fausto Carmona) worked out a deal to have his false identity charges dropped in exchange for participating in a work program in his native Dominican Republic.

While Heredia apparently won't face any legal trouble for his actions, it's not clear if he's any closer to rejoining the Indians. The 31-year-old still needs to obtain a travel visa to enter to the United States and it's possible he could face a suspension from MLB for falsifying his identity. The Indians picked up Heredia's $8 million club option for 2012 after he posted a 5.25 ERA and 109/60 K/BB ratio over 188 2/3 innings last season, but he won't be paid as long as he remains on MLB's restricted list.

Heredia has never been the sexiest option in fantasy leagues since he doesn't strike out many batters (career - 5.4 K/9) and his high ground ball rate (58.6 percent) can lead to some wild fluctuations in good or bad luck, but his walk rate last year (2.86 BB/9) was his best since he won 19 games while posting a 3.06 ERA back in 2007. Still, I'd be leery of making an investment in AL-only leagues until we know more about the next step.

 

[HacheMan]

Wainwright undervalued in early drafts

Eric Karabell

Who says you can't learn anything from watching spring training games?

I can't get enough of 'em, whether I'm in Arizona, Florida or on my sofa with my feet up and a laptop at my side. I just watched St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright stymie the New York Mets for three terrific innings, and it only enhanced my opinion that this former ace is ready to be an ace again.


<offer>Wainwright missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, and by now fantasy owners should be well aware that many pitchers come back strong from the procedure. Wainwright's elbow was fixed more than 12 months ago, setting him apart from other recovering pitchers I'll be watching this season, such as Brett Anderson or Carlos Carrasco. In other words, Wainwright has had plenty of time, and watching him pitch -- not merely looking at his statistics -- one would never know he missed a year of action.</offer>
Looking at the ESPN average live draft results, I'm prepared to call Wainwright one of the best bargains among starting pitchers. Yes, it was major surgery, and it's true, the Mets lineup he faced Tuesday isn't a great one, but still, I don't understand people being this cautious or skeptical. I don't expect 20 wins or a sub-3.00 ERA, but his velocity is back, his command looked fine (often that takes a while following Tommy John surgery), he threw 40 pitches to 10 batters and allowed just one hit. And he was pitching, essentially, on short rest, a questionable move in mid-March. Bottom line: This is a top-20 starting pitcher being treated otherwise in drafts. A year ago he was a top-10 starting pitcher before the injury.
Of course, one of the reasons Wainwright needed to be summoned for this outing was because Chris Carpenter was unavailable. It's a shame, really, that Carpenter is dealing with a bulging disc in his neck. It's not nerve-related, which is good news, but the Cardinals aren't sure when Carpenter will pitch again. To some, though not me, Carpenter was a bad bargain to begin with; he's nearly 37 years old, and he led the league in innings and batters faced in 2011. That doesn't include six postseason outings, which often manifests itself in fatigue the next season. Still, Carpenter is going 21st among starting pitchers in our live draft results.My easy solution to how to handle Wainwright and Carpenter is to simply switch them in the rankings. I think we're underestimating Wainwright, not because he had a fine spring outing on March 13, but because all reports on him have been good, he has had plenty of time to recover, and I think he'll be starting on Opening Day. I really wouldn't be surprised if he hurls 200 innings and posts a similar strikeout rate as he did pre-surgery. Honestly, by next week he might reach James Shields, C.J. Wilson and Ian Kennedy in the top 20 starting pitchers in my rankings.


Wainwright has already passed Carpenter, who should drop some because of the uncertainty of his problem. I don't presume a disabled list stint is pending for Carpenter; he has pitched through this ailment before, and has managed to amass more than 500 innings over the past two seasons (including postseason starts). I had Carpenter outside my overall top 100, but among my top 25 starting pitchers. I'm not panicking yet, but if push came to shove in a draft, I'd probably choose Daniel Hudson, Mat Latos and Ricky Romero ahead of him until we know more.I've been asked a few times recently (including on Twitter) what I think of Lance Lynn replacing Carpenter. Let's just say I wouldn't spend the extra dollar for Lynn, even in an NL-only format. I think Carpenter still makes 30 starts. If he does not, though, watch the Cardinals sign free agent Roy Oswalt. I also have Oswalt ranked better than others seem to, even though he's currently unemployed. Don't worry, he'll find work, and it won't be for the Baltimore Orioles or Pittsburgh Pirates. If Oswalt signs in St. Louis, then I'll start to wonder about Carpenter. I do not think Shelby Miller will make his big league debut until at least midseason. He's 21 and has not looked sharp in spring games so far.

 

[HacheMan]

Tristan's Twenty: Guys I'm targeting

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com


Everyone has likes and dislikes. Everyone has an opinion.
Sure, one can dream of a world in which everyone agrees. We'd have world peace, a flawless political system, one TV channel with great, original programming 24 hours a day, and, of course, the perfect doughnut.
Our fantasy leagues, unfortunately, would stink.
What fun is this game, after all, if we all agree? A fantasy league in which everyone involved has an identical playbook is pointless, and if you cannot develop a playbook of your own -- meaning any, however slight, adjustment from our consensus rankings -- you are not going to enjoy this game. While we constantly advise you not to allow personal bias to come into your fantasy baseball evaluations, that's a recommendation to keep it in check, not shut it down entirely. Some opinion is mandatory. Otherwise, it's like doughnut Tuesday with nothing but old fashioned in the box.
This is the space where I share my most extreme opinions on players. It is opening my playbook, if you will, revealing my list of players I'm frequently targeting in drafts or who I deem considerably more valuable than indicated by our consensus rankings or Live Draft Results report, or by my experience in drafts so far this preseason. They are "Tristan's Twenty."
They are the players I expect to have on a majority of my teams come draft day, with the standard caveat that, because I've now published them -- "opened my playbook," if you will -- there's a chance I might not get as many of them as I want. Yes, it has become common for my competition to print such lists, bring them to the draft and deliberately bid me up on every name. (You guys know who you are. Don't think I'm not onto you.)
Now, the 20, in no particular order …

Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs


If Zack Greinke, who would've made this list if he wasn't already garnering top-50-overall support, is the "sabermetric dream" going strictly off 2011 stats, what does that make Garza, the sabermetric daydream? Greinke might have led all ERA qualifiers in Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (2.56) and strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio (10.54), but Garza ranked 11th in xFIP (3.19) and 10th in K's per nine, effectively painting him as the "lite" version of Greinke. Garza, however, is going seven rounds later than Greinke in standard ESPN drafts. If not for win potential -- pitching for the Cubs is not a positive in that department -- Garza would get more love, but if you know my drafting tendencies, you know wins predictions are not what motivate me. I say get your ERA, WHIP and K's, and hope the wins come.

Jonathon Niese, SP, New York Mets


Let's get the other highlight member of my "Kings of Command" preseason piece out of the way, lest this quickly morph into a repeat of that column. (Hey, there are worse facts to regurgitate, such as Ian Kennedy's 2011 win total.) Everything about Niese's game looks like a pitcher who through two-plus seasons of misfortune in the bigs might be ready to break out. He has superb command numbers, exemplified by his 3.28 xFIP and elite ground-ball rate (53.6 percent), and a diverse enough arsenal to avoid a steep lefty-righty split. Niese was one of the few pitchers I was displeased not to land in the annual League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) draft; the only reason I didn't is because I wasn't going to pay the same rate to get him ($9) as Anibal Sanchez.

Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers


"Third base" is merely his eligible fantasy position (for now); Gamel is going to be the Brewers' starting first basemen this season.

You heard me: I said going to. You might be familiar with Gamel's name, perhaps inclined to make dismissive analysis like, "Oh, wasn't he that prospect who stunk for the Brewers three years ago?" The truth is that the only aspect of Gamel's game that truly stunk was his defense; he has a ghastly .881 fielding percentage and minus-17.9 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games played) in his big league career at third base, which encompasses all of 224 innings. It is that, not his bat, that has been the primary obstacle standing in his way of regular at-bats with the Brewers, as he has outstanding, .301/.374/.512 triple-slash rates in Triple-A ball. This will be the first time the team gives him a chance to succeed with his bat without sweating the damage done by his glove. Considering he'll do it while qualifying at third base, he's an excellent late-round target, even in mixed leagues.

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds


This is not the easiest thing to say about a player on a Dusty Baker team, but as a fantasy owner, you should draft skills, not roles … at least in the late rounds. Heisey deserves a chance to play regularly, and Baker is going to quickly realize that once he gets an extended look at Ryan Ludwick, who really hasn't hit since the St. Louis Cardinals traded him in July 2010. Heck, Heisey isn't even your prototypical platoon candidate; he's more of a reverse platoon player; the righty swinger has an .885 lifetime OPS versus right-handers, but a .548 mark versus left-handers. And he's 27, which isn't saying he's at that "magical breakout age" (that's hogwash, I say!), but rather says that he's a prime-years player who deserves a better shake of the at-bats.

Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox


To find out why I love Sale so much, you're simply going to have to check out my "30 Questions" this Thursday. Stay tuned.

David Hernandez, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks


A surface glance at his ERA/WHIP numbers might have you skeptical he belongs in the "elite" class of relief pitchers, but Hernandez's statistics don't do justice to how brilliantly his arsenal suits the role. He brings a mid-90s fastball, one of the filthiest sliders in baseball (.326 OPS allowed with it, sixth-best in baseball among pitchers who threw at least 250 sliders), and a changeup juuuuuuuust good enough to keep left-handed hitters honest. Hernandez also has the makeup to close, having notched 11 saves in 2011, and he's pitching behind a closer who has made trips to the disabled list in four consecutive seasons. I like J.J. Putz quite a bit; the problem is that if Putz is sidelined for, say, a 30-day period, that's plenty of time for Hernandez to jump in, pitch well in the role and then ever give the job back.

Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore Orioles


Speaking of cheap saves, I'd like to present one Mr. Jim Johnson. Early-spring back problems, as well as his being a member of the lowly Orioles, might scare off many owners, but Johnson has similarly good stuff to another underrated closer, Brandon League. And League was the No. 14 reliever on our Player Rater last season.

Ryan Doumit, C, Minnesota Twins


Doumit is finally a member of the American League, which is for the best, because during his time as a National Leaguer, he was a catcher only in name.

Doumit's skills are all on the offensive side of the ball, and the switch hitter is a righty-killer, having posted a .282 batting average or better, and an .802 OPS or better, versus right-handers in four of the past five seasons. That's a nice plus, considering a majority of the pitchers in baseball are right-handed. He also provides the Twins options: If Joe Mauer can handle the chores of catching daily, Doumit can slide in at designated hitter on an everyday basis, perhaps sparing him the health risks that have cost him six career trips to the DL, most of those for extended periods. If Mauer can't catch, Doumit can spend some of his time behind the plate, while getting the occasional off-day start at DH or first base. Either way, Doumit might be 2012's best example of the catcher-eligible player who pads his at-bat total at other positions.

Ike Davis, 1B, Mets


I'm either going to be very right or very wrong about Davis, especially now that we've heard the early-spring news about his Valley Fever. The Conor Jackson comparison might terrify Davis' prospective fantasy owners, but I'll say that from what I've seen in two games from Davis since his diagnosis didn't raise any red flags. (To restate: That's two games. But it's the spring, and sometimes that's all we'll get to assess a situation.) He might well be the Mets' cleanup hitter come Opening Day, and so far in the majors he has .271/.357/.460 triple-slash rates, with an average of 23 home runs and 85 RBIs per 162 games played. Oh, and the Mets moved the Citi Field fences in. Let's remain optimistic -- for now.

Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, Mets


If Davis isn't going to benefit from the smaller Citi Field dimensions, surely Duda will. He has two skills that fantasy owners should love: He can draw walks, as evidenced by a career 12.5 percent minor league walk rate and 8.9 rate so far with the Mets, and he can hit for power, evidenced by his .296 isolated power at the Triple-A level (in 108 games from 2010-11) and .195 so far with the Mets. Isn't it remarkable that players from a team in New York are actually underrated for once?

Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers


He does a good Arnold Schwarzenegger impression, and that has to count for something in fantasy, right? Wait, what? It doesn't? OK, how about this: He managed an 8.15 K's-per-nine and 2.65 walks-per-nine ratio, a 3.06 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP after the All-Star break last season, primarily because his fastball command improved to the point where he threw it for strikes 66 percent of the time, generated swings on 19 percent of swings against it and limited foes to .237/.310/.308 triple-slash rates with it during that span. Compare those to the major league averages of 65, 15 and .278/.354/.443, and that's pretty impressive. And he's a command pitcher. Holland appears ready to take the next step.

John Mayberry Jr., OF, Philadelphia Phillies


As with Heisey, Mayberry is a player who deserves a chance at everyday at-bats, considering the righty swinger was a .250/.330/.455 hitter versus right-handed pitchers in 2011, noticeably better than the major league averages of .248/.308/.387 his fellow righty hitters had versus righty pitchers. The Phillies have openings at both left field and first base, and Mayberry could handle either. He also has averaged one homer per 16.0 at-bats so far at the big league level, so this one's a no-brainer.

Juan Pierre, OF, Philadelphia Phillies


Liking Mayberry Jr. is not to say I have anything against Juan Pierre. Statheads can't stand him, but fantasy owners appreciate him because of the value of his most marketable skill: speed. Pierre probably will make the Phillies; that he's on a non-guaranteed deal will suppress his draft value. Heck, he was a $1 player in LABR. I'd have spent $4 more for what's sure to be a bargain-bin 20-plus steals.

Vance Worley, SP, Philadelphia Phillies


Hey, a Phillies theme! The Phillies should seriously consider taking last year's leftover batch of "Four Aces" t-shirts, pasting Worley's name and image over Roy Oswalt's, and putting them back up for sale. Frankly, they might not only sell as well … the quartet's performance this season might match the expected output of last year's, considering Oswalt disappointed in 2011.

Worley was a sensation as the team's No. 5 starter a year ago, and his arsenal is following in the footsteps of the three men ahead of him in the rotation: He's dabbling with a cutter. Heck, the Phillies as a team threw more cutters (2,670) and a higher percentage of them (11.7 percent) than anyone else in baseball, so there's seemingly a camaraderie, perhaps a mentor-protégé culture, among their pitchers. Look at Cole Hamels' career progression: He introduced the cutter in 2010 and rebounded from the worst year (2009) of his career, then perfected it in 2011 and posted his all-time best season. Worley introduced his cutter in 2010, continued to hone it in 2011 and might take it to the next level this season, a la Hamels. That's not to say Worley is Hamels' equal in terms of talent. It merely supports his case as a pitcher more likely to take another step forward then endure a sophomore slump.

Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies


I cannot explain how a player as quick as Fowler, and as adept at getting on base -- he has a .355 on-base percentage and 11.9 percent walk rate so far in the majors -- has so much trouble being an efficient base stealer; he has been successful in only 66 percent of his steal attempts. I merely look at a player with his skills and say, for the price he'll cost you, it's a leap of faith you need to take.

Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks


There needs to be at least one rookie on this list, right? Bauer is my choice, and no, it's not just because his last name is "Bauer." (Speaking of which, how is that "24" movie coming?) You might regard Bauer more of an August call-up, but by all rights he might actually break camp with the Diamondbacks. Remember, this is a rotation that rounds out with soft-tossers Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter, both of whom are currently injured. Bauer has better stuff than either; the Diamondbacks should take this opportunity to test the kid.

Delmon Young, OF, Detroit Tigers


Guess I'm going down with the ship on this one; those who have followed me for years know my fondness for Young back in the day. That said, he's not on this list for blind love, he's on it because everyone has apparently given up on him … again … despite the fact that he's only 26 years old and in a much better situation than he was a year ago. Don't get me wrong; Young has flaws. He doesn't draw walks, and he's atrocious in the field. But in his defense, he's a .288 lifetime hitter. He had 21 homers in 2010, and 13 in 55 games for the Tigers last season (playoffs included). If your league counts on-base percentage, you don't want him. If it doesn't …

Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants


The Giants need to give this kid a place to play every day. If they can't, they need to trade him. Heck, maybe we'd all be better off if it's the latter.

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles


Like Young, I've always been a Wieters fan; unlike Young, Wieters is going to realize the full potential predicted for him at the time of his 2009 major league debut, whereas Young's "peak-potential" projections require some adjustment. Wieters merely has taken more time than expected to get there; the toils of catching have slowed his progress, which isn't shocking, and at least I've got plenty of good company in having been a couple seasons too early on this curve. The 2012 season, however, is not the time to give up on Wieters, who clubbed 12 home runs the final two months of last season, set a career high with his 83.2 percent contact rate and finally mastered left-handed pitching (.339/.430/.694 triple-slash rates against them), which had previously been a significant weakness of his. I'm a Carlos Santana fan, and think Mike Napoli's power potential, plus ballpark, are outstanding, yet Wieters' career trend projects him on a track that might well earn him the No. 1 spot at his position this season.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants


I know what you want when it comes to my final player. You want to know, "Who is 2012's Jered Weaver?" As in, who is the current top-25 ranked starting pitcher with the best chance at finishing as a top-10 starter season? Bumgarner is my answer. The strikeouts are legitimate, as the reason he increased his strikeout rate by more than 1.5 per nine last season was his reliance upon his slider as a swing-and-miss pitch. He threw it 38 percent of the time with two strikes, 35 percent in any count after the All-Star break, and recorded 85 of his 191 whiffs with it all season. If Bumgarner whiffs more than 200 in 2012, don't be at all surprised.
Finally, since this is a "my opinion" column sprinkled with doughnut talk, no such piece would be complete without a list of my top three all-time doughnut flavors: Boston crème, blueberry cake and sugar (non-powdered; if you're ever in Nantucket, Mass., try this one at the Downyflake).

 

[HacheMan]

Moore, Moore, Moore

Rays left-hander Matt Moore made his Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday afternoon against the Orioles, allowing no hits and striking out three of the six batters he faced.


Moore had about a week-long setback at the beginning of spring training after experiencing some abdominal discomfort during a fielding drill. But that minor ailment is now well in the past, and the 22-year-old southpaw is ready to begin building his pitch count to where it needs to be for the start of the 2012 regular season.


Rated the No. 2 prospect in the sport recently by Baseball America, Moore registered a spectacular 1.92 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 210/46 K/BB ratio in 155 innings last season between Double-A and Triple-A before eventually climbing to the major leagues and earning a start in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rangers. In that postseason debut, he yielded only two hits and fanned six batters in seven innings of shutout ball.


Moore is an ace-in-the-making, with an arsenal of plus pitches and enough control to make all of his deliveries devastating. In the “Bold Predictions” corner of our award-winning Online Draft Guide, I’ve got him finishing second in the American League Cy Young Award voting behind teammate Harper Unlikely To Break Camp With Nats



Nationals manager Davey Johnson has been keeping an open mind to the idea of 19-year-old phenom Bryce Harper earning a spot on the Opening Day roster. But it’s time for a mid-March reality check.



According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, Harper acknowledged Tuesday afternoon in Nationals camp that he will “probably not” be on the 25-man roster when early April arrives.



Harper has been held out of the Nats’ Grapefruit League lineup for close to a week due to discomfort in his left calf. But even before he suffered that minor setback, the odds of him opening the year in Chicago with the big league club were slim. Harper hasn’t seen a single pitch at the Triple-A level and struggled to the tune of a .256/.329/.395 batting line last season in his first taste of Double-A. He’s one of the brightest prospects in baseball history with upside that seems endless, but rushing him into a situation that he’s not prepared for would be a mistake.



And so the Nationals aren’t going to do it.


Look for Harper to begin the year at either Double-A Harrisburg or Triple-A Syracuse before ascending to the major leagues by the middle of the summer. With his combination of power and speed, he's going to have fantasy value right away and is worth a late-round flier selection in standard fantasy drafts.




Chipper Clarifies Early-Retirement Suggestion


Braves veteran Chipper Jones told reporters on Monday that he was feeling tired and worn down, and expressed some concern about making it through the entire 2012 campaign. But he was shocked at the uproar those comments created when he arrived back at the Braves’ spring training complex on Tuesday morning and insisted to reporters that he was only joking around.


"I was kidding,” Jones told MLB.com beat writer Mark Bowman. “I just got done playing eight innings with three at-bats. I was a little tired. I wasn’t by any means suggesting I couldn’t make it through the season. If I didn’t think that I could, I wouldn’t be out there."


The 39-year-old third baseman batted .275/.344/.470 with 18 home runs and 70 RBI across 512 plate appearances in 2011. That’s a nice stat line and it made Jones a useful fantasy option last year at a shallow hot corner, but it’s not a great sign that he’s already feeling sluggish here in the middle of March. We’re projecting a far less productive effort from him in 2012.





Diamondbacks Looking To Gauge Drew’s Status


Arizona shortstop Stephen Drew did not appear in a major league game last season after fracturing his right ankle on a slide into home plate in late July. And he’s still not back to 100 percent.


Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic on Tuesday that he plans to push Drew “pretty good this week” to get an idea of where the 28-year-old shortstop is health-wise as the start of the regular season approaches.


Drew hasn’t run the bases at full speed, hasn’t faced live pitching and hasn’t performed sliding drills. He will need to successfully complete all three activities before being allowed to appear in a Cactus League game, and will need at least 25 plate appearances in Cactus League games before being allowed to lay claim to an Opening Day roster spot.


If Drew is unable to make enough progress this week in D’Backs camp, look for Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald to dominate the playing time at shortstop in early April. Drew, a .270/.330/.442 career hitter, makes a fine sleeper pick for fantasy owners willing to practice patience.

 

[HacheMan]

Berry And Friends Mock Draft

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

As most of these stories start, it seemed like a good idea at the time.

I was assigned to write a mock draft. Normally, when we do a mock draft, it's all of us ESPN Fantasy analysts getting together and going nuts. Karabell usually buys the keg, AJ Mass brings the entertainment and Cockcroft is behind grill, flipping burgers and warming up the smoked turkey legs, yelling out setup men he wants to target. Oh, it's a grand old time, at least until Stephania drags out the karaoke machine.


But there's also a sameness to it all. The lot of us have spent the better part of the last two months together, virtually or otherwise, arguing, ranking and drafting players. Over and over and over. A certain type of "group think" starts to settle in. More importantly, it's not like most drafts that people do.


Most (all?) leagues that people play in are not filled with people who do this for a living, who have spent eight weeks discussing how they feel about every player and exposed their draft strategy for the upcoming season to all the people they are going to draft with. Many leagues are filled with strangers or, at the very least, people who do not know everyone else's draft strategy.

So I wanted to try to replicate a "regular" league's draft as close as possible, but also have it be filled with knowledgeable fantasy players. So I put out a call to the folks that follow me on Twitter to see if anyone wanted to do a mock draft with me. My thinking: Anyone that followed me on Twitter, was actually on Twitter at the time I put it out there, willing to do a mock draft in the middle of a work day, was, on some level, pretty serious.


Our standard league here on ESPN is a 10-team mixed, but I know I get a lot of requests for information for deeper leagues, so I decided to make this a 12 team mixed league using standard 5x5 roto categories.



So that was the idea behind doing it this way, to try and be helpful in a different way than some of our other mocks. Was it a good idea? Time, and by time, I mean the amount required to get to the end of this column, will tell. I made the league wide-ranging. So there is someone from Costa Rica in there, two women (love that we have more women playing fantasy sports these days), a former writer for my old TalentedMrRoto.com website, the national winner of the Jewish Community Center Challenge, of which I was the honorary commish this past year, and even JD Harmeyer, who needs no introduction. You either know exactly who he is or you don't.


Let's meet our drafters, in their own words, in the order in which they'll draft:


@patchus: I have been playing since 2004. I have 1 really serious league with keepers, 1 work league (gotta brag around the office) and 1 joke league that I do with friends to try to convince them fantasy sports is actually fun / cool. I am obsessed with coffee to a degree that makes people think I am Juan Valdez himself.


@theanamachine: I've been playing fantasy for 2 years, never played baseball before. Thought I should get into it since I'm from Miami and with all the new changes to our home team. I'm a 24-year-old female law student from the University of Miami hoping to be the next big agent or Matthew Berry.


@Tarnoldt: I'm the National JCC Champ for Fantasy Football. This is my 3rd year playing fantasy baseball. I do three leagues (2 H2H, 1 Roto) and just because my name is Thom Arnoldt doesn't mean you can make a bad Roseanne joke.

@jeffpasquale: I'm 46, live outside Toronto, two sons, 12 and 9. Used to do some writing for the old talentedmrroto.com site. Been playing since 1989, currently in three serious leagues, all very deep, AL- or NL-only. I was once a contestant on a Canadian sports trivia game show called knockout, hosted by former Blue Jays catcher, manager and current broadcaster Buck Martinez. Lost in the finals.


@ascarborough05: This will be my third year playing any fantasy team. This is my first year playing in two leagues. In my rookie year of fantasy baseball (2010) I drafted Jose Bautista as my last pick. Yes, I am proud of this and photo proof is available. I'm a 24 year old female from Toronto.


@Jdharm: I've been doing fantasy baseball for 5 years. People know too much about me already.


@duece420: Married with two children, I have been playing since I was 8 (I am 29). My favorite league is a keeper head to head points. I used to have a podcast of my own.


@guymharrison: Live in Arizona, raised in Philly. I've been playing fantasy baseball for the last 12 years (since I was 15). I'm a newly-published author. My debut action/suspense novel, "Agents of Change," was published last month.


@Vamsi: I'm 29, from Missouri, live in LA. Been playing for about 15 years. This year we have to schedule the draft to get members to participate on the east coast, west coast, Bora Bora (honeymoon), Australia (work), and Afghanistan (deployed). Not easy. Also, I'm going to be on Jeopardy!


@gmusmanni: I'm a 30-year-old single guy with no kids (still living the life) from San Jose, Costa Rica. I've been playing since 2003, so this would be my 10th year. After 25 years of being a Cubs fan (sigh), I'm finally going to see them play on April 19th in the new Miami ballpark. Really, really, really excited about this!


@pdezara: Been playing for 12 years, two primary leagues are AL-only auction/keeper. Got into two dynasty leagues last year. Last August me and 6 buds saw Romero pitch a 2 hit complete gem then ran into him at a bar where he was on his first date with Miss America, Rima Fakih. Good day for him huh?


Good day, indeed, Paul. Let's get drafting.
ROUND 1

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Albert Pujols, LAA, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 2 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Miguel Cabrera, Det, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 3 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Matt Kemp, LAD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 4 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Jose Bautista, Tor, 3B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 5 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Troy Tulowitzki, Col, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Ryan Braun, Mil, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 7 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 8 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Justin Upton, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 9 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Robinson Cano, NYY, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 10 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Joey Votto, Cin, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 11 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 12 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Ian Kinsler, Tex, 2B </td></tr></tbody></table>



Was thinking about ... Not thrilled with pick four, which was randomly assigned. If I can't get pick one or two, I'd rather be towards the end of the round this year. Was thinking hard about Ryan Braun here, whom I have ranked at four.


Ended up taking ... Jose Bautista. I decided to play this draft as close as possible to my Top 250 ranks to see, frankly, if there are any major adjustments I need to make to it. I have Bautista just ahead of Braun because of Bautista's third-base eligibility and because there's still a few unknowns with Braun given his offseason and the departure of Prince Fielder. Obviously, I feel Braun is ultimately fine (I ranked him fourth, after all) but at this level, you have to nitpick, which is what I did here. JoeyBats, come on down.


Things that made me go hmmm ... I also have way too many C+C Music Factory songs on my iPhone. I'm a MTV child, what do you want from me? Ian Kinsler going in the first round surprised me. I have him at 21 overall and that's a lot of risk (injury, batting average, remember he hit only nine home runs in 2010) for a first round pick. Especially since I feel second base is much deeper this year and Dustin Pedroia was still on the board.


Draft room chatter:

@Jeff0Pasquale: In the five hole, I was taking Joey Bats or Tulo. No suspected PED users for me. We run a clean program.


@guymharrison: Damn. Wanted Upton at No. 9, since OF is shallow. But...


ROUND 2

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 13 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Carlos Gonzalez, Col, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 14 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Hanley Ramirez, Mia, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 15 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Prince Fielder, Det, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 16 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Roy Halladay, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 17 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Evan Longoria, TB, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 18 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Justin Verlander, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 19 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Dustin Pedroia, Bos, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 20 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Jose Reyes, Mia, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 21 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Adrian Beltre, Tex, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 22 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Mark Teixeira, NYY, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 23 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> David Wright, NYM, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 24 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>



Was thinking about ... How I might have made a mistake here. Was really hoping Jose Reyes would fall to me and yet, he goes one pick before me. I have Reyes at 13 overall, much higher than his ESPN averaged draft position (currently 22). He went at pick 20, which is perfectly fine, except he went to @jeffpasquale, who used his first pick on Troy Tulowitzki. If you've looked at my Top 250, you know I love Reyes, you already had a shortstop, and you go shortstop again in the 2nd? Was drafting with 11 people who all follow me a good idea? Am I being bird-dogged here? With Reyes gone, I thought about Michael Bourn for some speed or perhaps going pitching with Clayton Kershaw.


Ended up taking ...Adrian Beltre. I'm on record as saying I believe Beltre is the "safest" of all the third basemen this season. He's on my "love" list and I have him ranked 17th overall, so I was happy to get him at pick 21. Since Bautista qualifies at outfield, this gives me some flexibility, creates some scarcity and it gave me some better batting average protection than Mark Teixeira would provide; remember, Bautista's .302 average last season is a long ways off his career .254 mark. He's transformed as a hitter, but there's still risk there.


Things that made me go hmmm ... Other than Jeff taking two shortstops with his first two picks? They provide very different stats and he'd have no problem dealing either one, so it's not a terrible pick, but it is surprising. I was surprised that @vamsi went Prince Fielder after drafting Joey Votto in the first. Also would have thought Evan Longoria would have gone earlier. Nice value there for @duece420.


Draft room chatter:


@jeffpasquale: OK, I'm set at SS


You think?


ROUND 3

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 25 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Michael Bourn, Atl, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 26 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Dan Uggla, Atl, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 27 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Andrew McCutchen, Pit, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 28 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 29 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Cliff Lee, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 30 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Curtis Granderson, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 31 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Pablo Sandoval, SF, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 32 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Tim Lincecum, SF, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 33 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Felix Hernandez, Sea, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 34 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Jered Weaver, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 35 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Matt Holliday, StL, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 36 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Josh Hamilton, Tex, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>




Was thinking about ... How much I hated this spot. Really wanted Bourn to fall to me. Thought about pitching, but decided I wanted to wait as I felt anyone left would have been a reach at this point.


Ended up taking ... The artist formally known as Mike Stanton. I have him ranked 22 and he was the highest guy remaining on my list, so getting him at pick 28 seems like good value, especially give Stanton's growth last year. I actually think we might be low on his projected batting average. No speed on this team, but so far I have rostered a projected 275 runs, 109 home runs, 306 RBIs in my first three rounds.


Things that made me go hmmm ... Given how deep pitching is and the fact that it's a 12-team mixed league (so streaming pitchers is an option here), drafting Felix Hernandez a round after taking Roy Halladay raised a few cyber eyebrows. Harrison said he felt he was reaching for any offensive guy here so he'd use Roy or Felix as trade bait later on, which is fine in theory except it's hard to trade starters for value in shallow mixed leagues because pitching is so plentiful.


Draft room chatter:

@patchus: Didn't want to pick Bourn, but needed steals and didn't think he would be there once I got back.


@jeffpasquale: If I had a "hate" list, Dan Uggla would be on it. Just sayin'.


@duece420: I wanted Cliff Lee!


@patchus: That's what the Rangers said.


ROUND 4

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 37 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Nelson Cruz, Tex, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 38 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Paul Konerko, CWS, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 39 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Ryan Zimmerman, Was, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 40 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Hunter Pence, Phi, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 41 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Cole Hamels, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 42 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Jay Bruce, Cin, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 43 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Dan Haren, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 44 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Brett Lawrie, Tor, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 45 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Elvis Andrus, Tex, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 46 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Mike Napoli, Tex, C, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 47 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> CC Sabathia, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 48 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Michael Morse, Was, 1B, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 5

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 49 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Lance Berkman, StL, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 50 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Jimmy Rollins, Phi, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 51 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Starlin Castro, ChC, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 52 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Zack Greinke, Mil, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 53 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Eric Hosmer, KC, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 54 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> David Price, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 55 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Brandon Phillips, Cin, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 56 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Ben Zobrist, TB, 2B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 57 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Shane Victorino, Phi, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 58 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Carlos Santana, Cle, C, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 59 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Jon Lester, Bos, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 60 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Alex Rodriguez, NYY, 3B </td></tr></tbody></table>



Was thinking about ... Drafting a first baseman here, as they were starting to be in short supply. Looked at Michael Morse in Round 4 and Eric Hosmer in Round 5. Also considered Ben Zobrist in the fifth as he's a guy, as Nate and I like to say on the podcast, with a high floor. Meaning, even if he has a bad season, he's still very likely to have some value and to not entirely fall off the table, even in a worst-case scenario.


Ended up taking ... A guy I "love," Elvis Andrus. Really needed speed, especially in the middle infield, while it may have been a bit of a reach by our draft results, I have him at 42. So to get him at 45 made me very happy. In Round 5, though, I made my first mistake. Probably should have gone Eric Hosmer here. I'm a big Grienke guy this year (my rank: 40, picked him at 52) but pitching ended up being really devalued in this draft. Passing on Hosmer as my first baseman would end up coming back to haunt me later. This is what literary types refer to as "foreshadowing" and what my seven-year-old calls "ruining the story."


Things that made me go hmmm ... Well, you know I think our Brett Lawrie rank is ridiculous to begin with, based on 150 at-bats, and his average draft position is 50. So to take him at 44 is a reach for me. The odds of him providing more value than pick 44 aren't great, but he could very easily struggle some and perform well below fifth-round value. He's gonna be great, maybe even this year, but at pick 44 you've taken any potential profit out of the pick. @Duece420 goes pitching back-to-back as well, with Cole Hamels in Round 4 after Tim Lincecum in Round 3. Like @guymharriosn, he'll feel this later. Finally, how did Jay Bruce (my 33) fall to 42? Nice pick by @jdharm. Mike Napoli going at 46 is probably a round too early as well, in a one-catcher league.


Draft room chatter:

@guymharrison (after Hosmer went): Fudge. 1B sucks now.


ROUND 6

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 61 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Carl Crawford, Bos, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 62 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> C.J. Wilson, LAA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 63 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Stephen Strasburg, Was, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 64 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 65 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Aramis Ramirez, Mil, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 66 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Alex Gordon, KC, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 67 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Matt Cain, SF, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 68 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Ricky Romero, Tor, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 69 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Brian McCann, Atl, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 70 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> James Shields, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 71 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> David Ortiz, Bos, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 72 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Yovani Gallardo, Mil, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 7

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 73 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Michael Young, Tex, 1B, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 74 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Derek Jeter, NYY, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 75 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Matt Moore, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 76 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 77 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Chase Utley, Phi, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 78 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Kevin Youkilis, Bos, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 79 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Craig Kimbrel, Atl, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 80 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Adam Jones, Bal, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 81 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Mariano Rivera, NYY, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 82 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> B.J. Upton, TB, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 83 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Rickie Weeks, Mil, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 84 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Adam Wainwright, StL, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 8

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 85 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Yu Darvish, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 86 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Ian Kennedy, Ari, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 87 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Jayson Werth, Was, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 88 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Matt Wieters, Bal, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 89 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Alexei Ramirez, CWS, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 90 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Brett Gardner, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 91 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Ichiro Suzuki, Sea, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 92 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Desmond Jennings, TB, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 93 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Corey Hart, Mil, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 94 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Howard Kendrick, LAA, 2B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 95 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Alfonso Soriano, ChC, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 96 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Tommy Hanson, Atl, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>



Was thinking about ... In Round 6, I strongly considered David Ortiz, who is really undervalued, and toyed with the idea of Kevin Youkilis in Round 7. With the exception of Adrian Gonzalez, Jon Lester and Dustin Pedrioa, most of the Red Sox are undervalued in a big way this year. I also was looking at Rickie Weeks in Round 7 as I still needed a second baseman and it was starting to get thinner here. As for Round 8, I really wanted Jayson Werth or Ichiro Suzuki to fall to me as both guys (along with Youk) are perfect PPOBYs (proven player off a bad year). Carl Crawford, Matt Cain ... lots of players on my "Love" list are starting to go in these rounds, so I'm starting to get paranoid. Is there collusion going on here? Have we become the NFL? (Bitter Redskins fan here. Carry on.)


Ended up taking ...Brian McCann, Shin-Soo Choo and Corey Hart. It became clear to me at this point that many (not all, but many) of the people in this draft were using my top 250, so our ESPN average draft positions were useless to me and everyone had an idea of where I was going next. So I decided to try and switch it up with McCann, as I almost never take a catcher early in a one catcher league. The value is fine (ranked him 59, got him with pick 69) but in retrospect, I wish I had gotten Michael Young (whom I wanted with my next pick) since he qualifies at first. Love the Choo pick (PPOBY!) and while Corey Hart is hurt, he's already walking without a limp. It got to a point where I could no longer ignore him (ranked 62 pre-injury, got him with pick 93). Still, I was hoping Howard Kendrick would last until Round 9, as he's another guy I love. And of course, once again, he didn't.
Things that made me go hmmm ... The Alfonso Soriano pick by @theanamachine is an obvious head-scratcher and taking Derek Jeter at 74 in the previous round (his ADP is 108) was another reach. Kevin Youkilis dropping to pick 78 (I have him at 57) is a great value and I can now turn my paranoia away from @jdharm and @guymharrison shading me; they both decide to pay for saves, taking Craig Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera in Round 7.


Draft room chatter:


@duece420: I hate my last pick (Aramis Ramirez) I wanted Cabrera.


@duece420: 2pm: it looks like no one thinks Alex Gordon can repeat


@jdharm: I believe in ya Alex&


@jeffpasquale: My INF is full and I have non OFers. My team's gonna get ugly.


@duece420: And there is the Jennings reach Matthew has warned us about


ROUND 9

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 97 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Chris Young, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 98 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Yonder Alonso, SD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 99 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Madison Bumgarner, SF, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 100 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Chris Carpenter, StL, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 101 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Jonathan Papelbon, Phi, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 102 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Michael Cuddyer, Col, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 103 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Ryan Madson, Cin, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 104 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Drew Stubbs, Cin, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 105 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Drew Storen, Was, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 106 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Carlos Beltran, StL, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 107 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Jason Heyward, Atl, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 108 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Carlos Marmol, ChC, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 10

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 109 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Mark Reynolds, Bal, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 110 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Matt Garza, ChC, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 111 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Josh Johnson, Mia, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 112 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Freddie Freeman, Atl, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 113 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Miguel Montero, Ari, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 114 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> J.J. Hardy, Bal, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 115 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Buster Posey, SF, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 116 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Michael Pineda, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 117 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Billy Butler, KC, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 118 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia, SS, 3B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 119 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Carlos Quentin, SD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 120 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Jhonny Peralta, Det, SS </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 11

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 121 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Alex Avila, Det, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 122 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Cameron Maybin, SD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 123 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Daniel Hudson, Ari, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 124 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Dee Gordon, LAD, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 125 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Joe Mauer, Min, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 126 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Erick Aybar, LAA, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 127 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Yadier Molina, StL, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 128 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 129 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Jeremy Hellickson, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 130 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Logan Morrison, Mia, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 131 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Torii Hunter, LAA, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 132 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Brandon Beachy, Atl, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 12

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 133 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Max Scherzer, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 134 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Carlos Lee, Hou, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 135 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Cory Luebke, SD, SP, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 136 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Jordan Zimmermann, Was, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 137 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Adam Lind, Tor, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 138 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Josh Beckett, Bos, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 139 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Mat Latos, Cin, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 140 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Coco Crisp, Oak, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 141 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Shaun Marcum, Mil, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 142 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> John Axford, Mil, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 143 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Colby Lewis, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 144 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Angel Pagan, SF, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>



Was thinking about ... In Round 9, I thought about Carlos Beltran, whom I like a lot this year, and potentially Michael Cuddyer, who is going to be sneaky good in Colorado. In Round 10, I was looking at potentially going for Johnny Peralta or maybe Daniel Hudson, who had fallen way too far at this point. In Round 11, it was a toss-up of Dee Gordon or Erick Aybar and in round 12, I was thinking "dammit, I can't believe Cuddyer and Freddie Freeman went." At that point, I felt like most of the rest of the first basemen were of a similar ilk in terms of risk and potential reward, so I decided to wait until the very end.


Ended up taking ... Round nine: Chris Carpenter. I was, er, bummed, that Madison Bumgarner didn't fall to me. One pick! I might have been more risk averse given Carpenter's injury status if this were not a mock or it were later in spring training but at this point, I like Carpenter's upside too much to ignore him two rounds after I have him ranked. Billy Butler has been taking grounders at first and Ned Yost says he will get time at first this year, spelling Eric Hosmer, so I took Butler (I think he breaks out this year. Of course, I say that every year) with the hopes he becomes my first baseman this year. Needed speed by Round 11, so I went with the crazy upside and high risk of Dee Gordon over the more safe Erick Aybar. Again, normally I would have played it safe, there but I was trying to change it up as I felt most folks knew where I was going. Finally, in Round 12, I love the Shaun Marcum pick at 141. I have him at 114 and while I don't have the healthiest pitching staff around, it has a lot of skills. And in a 12-team mixed league, I can work around the injuries.


Things that made me go hmmm ... I'm pretty bullish on Emilio Bonifacio this year (my rank: 136) but pick 118 is super early. Carlos Quentin is another reach - @theanamachine is clearly working from a set of rankings that will either win her the league by a mile or she's finishing dead last. @Duece420 reaches for Drew Stubbs here (ADP of 122, went pick 104) and we see closers start to go off the board, with Jonathan Papelbon, Drew Storen and Ryan Madson all going in Round 9. I think you know how I feel about that. Jeremy Hellickson going before guys like Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Mat Latos, or even Shaun Marcum, Josh Beckett or Max Scherzer, drives me batty. Lastly, @ascarborough goes Cuddyer, Buster Posey, Aybar, Latos. All solid picks. She's is quietly putting together a really good team.



Draft room chatter:@tarnoldt: Call it a reach but I won a league last year thanks to Emilio's flexibility.


@jdharm: I hate my team.


@tarnoldt: I hate your team too.

Mo<@guymharrison: Damn! Just put [Dee] Gordon in my queue.


(to me privately) @vamsi: It's surprising me how many people are using your top 250 (seemingly). I have to specifically ignore your list to try to find value elsewhere, for better or worse.


@MatthewBerryTMR: I knew it!


@jeffpasquale: Ha, Lawrie/Jennings/Pineda. I'm having the anti-Berry draft.


ROUND 13

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 145 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Gio Gonzalez, Was, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 146 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Gaby Sanchez, Mia, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 147 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Andre Ethier, LAD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 148 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Nick Markakis, Bal, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 149 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Jason Kubel, Ari, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 150 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Ryan Roberts, Ari, 2B, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 151 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Brian Wilson, SF, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 152 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Melky Cabrera, SF, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 153 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Martin Prado, Atl, 3B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 154 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Rafael Betancourt, Col, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 155 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Heath Bell, Mia, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 156 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Sergio Santos, Tor, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 14

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 157 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Jemile Weeks, Oak, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 158 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Jordan Walden, LAA, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 159 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Stephen Drew, Ari, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 160 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Nick Swisher, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 161 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Anibal Sanchez, Mia, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 162 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 163 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Jason Motte, StL, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 164 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Johnny Cueto, Cin, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 165 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Neil Walker, Pit, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 166 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Dustin Ackley, Sea, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 167 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> J.D. Martinez, Hou, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 168 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Daniel Murphy, NYM, 2B, 3B, 1B </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 15

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 169 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Jaime Garcia, StL, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 170 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Alex Rios, CWS, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 171 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Jesus Montero, Sea, DH </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 172 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Joel Hanrahan, Pit, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 173 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> J.J. Putz, Ari, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 174 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Brandon Morrow, Tor, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 175 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Johan Santana, NYM, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 176 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Jose Valverde, Det, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 177 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Brandon League, Sea, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 178 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Jason Kipnis, Cle, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 179 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Mike Moustakas, KC, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 180 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Ervin Santana, LAA, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 16

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 181 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Kendrys Morales, LAA, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 182 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Tim Hudson, Atl, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 183 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Andrew Bailey, Bos, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 184 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Marco Scutaro, Col, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 185 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Chris Sale, CWS, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 186 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Mike Carp, Sea, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 187 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Huston Street, SD, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 188 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Paul Goldschmidt, Ari, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 189 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Neftali Feliz, Tex, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 190 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Ike Davis, NYM, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 191 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Jonathan Lucroy, Mil, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 192 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Danny Espinosa, Was, 2B </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 17

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 193 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Justin Masterson, Cle, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 194 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Aubrey Huff, SF, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 195 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Lucas Duda, NYM, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 196 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Kyle Farnsworth, TB, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 197 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Colby Rasmus, Tor, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 198 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Jeff Francoeur, KC, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 199 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Michael Brantley, Cle, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 200 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Joakim Soria, KC, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 201 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Brandon McCarthy, Oak, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 202 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Josh Willingham, Min, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 203 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Kelly Johnson, Tor, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 204 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Yunel Escobar, Tor, SS </td></tr></tbody></table>




Was thinking about ... That I really hate Nick Markakis and was there a way to avoid him in Round 13? I thought about Nick Swisher here and the lot of second basemen left (I still needed one) including Jemile Weeks, Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa. Anibal Sanchez also gave me some winks. I like him a lot. In Round 14, I considered Ackley and Espinosa again and in round 15, it decided it was a matter of finally getting a closer, so I considered all who were left, mostly Andrew Bailey, Huston Street and Jose Valverde. In Round 16, trendy sleeper Lucas Duda and his first base eligibility were getting long looks from me as were some other starting pitchers I like, such as Brandon McCarthy. Round 17 was another closer and I was thinking "Why do people pay for saves?" Still lots of solid closers left.
Ended up taking ... Nick Markakis in Round 13. I really needed batting average at that point and while I like Swisher a lot more, I felt I was good in power, needed another outfielder who would hit safely for average and that's Markakis. But did I feel dirty? Absolutely. Round 14, I decided on the safe, underrated production of Neil Walker over the upside of Dustin Ackley. (I have them next to each other in the ranks). I reached for Walker here (have him ranked 178, got him at 165) but desperately needed a second baseman and was worried I wouldn't get one in the next round. He's very solid and underrated. The fact Ackley went at pick 166 (I have Ackley at 179) tells me I might have been right. In Round 15, Joel Hanrahan doesn't get a lot of love because he was on the Pirates, but he was the 7th-best closer on our Player Rater last year. Click on his name for a more in depth write-up on him, but he strikes out a nice amount of guys (K/9 of 8.00 last year) and will have a low WHIP, something I try to look for in closers. Round 16, I ended up taking Neftali Feliz, who I love (have him ranked 131, got him at pick 189). We obviously don't know how his transition to starter will go, but Texas has had a lot so success moving guys from the bullpen to being a starter, Feliz is working with Pedro Martinez on refining his change-up and well, I'm a believer. Round 17 and look who is still here? Our No. 13 reliever on the Player Rater last year, Kyle Farnsworth. The cutter is legit, kids and so is he. Never pay for saves.


Things that made me go hmmm ... Didn't like @vamsi taking Rafael Betancourt or @pdezara taking Sergio Santos in Round 13. Too early for closers, especially guys with question marks like these two. I actually like both, but Betancourt has never closed for a full season before, Santos has Francisco Cordero there and there were a lot of other proven closers still on the board at that point. It's clear at this point that @theanamachine is drafting of a very different list, though I do like the upside of J.D. Martinez. Jesus Montero is a slight reach here (pick 171, ADP of 183). Hopefully he becomes both catcher eligible and live up to expectations to be worth this pick. Didn't love @Jdharm's taking Mike Carp here. I'm no one to talk about someone's first baseman, but Carp's playing time isn't assured and with guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Kendry Morales and Ike Davis still out there (and I liked all those picks in Round 17), there were higher upside "risky" guys at first. Other picks I liked included Kelly Johnson, who could explode in Toronto, the Tim Hudson and Chris Sale picks (man, was starting pitching devalued here) and Danny Espinosa at pick 192 is a nice gamble.


Draft room chatter:


@tarnoldt: J.D. Martinez was a sleeper of mine. Was hoping to get him in the 20th or so.


@jeffpasquale: Almost took Feliz.


@duece420: I almost took him too but I will put another reliever turned starting pitcher on the board Matthew. Sale vs Feliz - I got Chris Sale.


@guymharrison: Wanted Frenchy but I'll take this guy instead. (Brandon McCarthy)


ROUND 18

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 205 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Justin Morneau, Min, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 206 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Adam Dunn, CWS, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 207 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> David Freese, StL, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 208 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Carlos Pena, TB, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 209 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Matt Joyce, TB, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 210 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Ryan Raburn, Det, 2B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 211 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 212 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Doug Fister, Det, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 213 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Mark Trumbo, LAA, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 214 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Clay Buchholz, Bos, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 215 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Alexi Ogando, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 216 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Joe Nathan, Tex, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 19

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 217 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Austin Jackson, Det, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 218 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Sean Rodriguez, TB, SS, 2B, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 219 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Dexter Fowler, Col, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 220 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 221 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 222 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Brennan Boesch, Det, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 223 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Chad Billingsley, LAD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 224 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Tim Stauffer, SD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 225 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Delmon Young, Det, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 226 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Jose Altuve, Hou, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 227 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Salvador Perez, KC, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 228 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Matt Thornton, CWS, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 20

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 229 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Russell Martin, NYY, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 230 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Chris Perez, Cle, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 231 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Ryan Howard, Phi, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 232 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Frank Francisco, NYM, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 233 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Mitch Moreland, Tex, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 234 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Placido Polanco, Phi, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 235 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Kenley Jansen, LAD, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 236 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Bud Norris, Hou, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 237 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Grant Balfour, Oak, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 238 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Javy Guerra, LAD, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 239 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Matt Capps, Min, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 240 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Allen Craig, StL, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 21

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 241 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Jim Johnson, Bal, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 242 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Daniel Bard, Bos, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 243 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Addison Reed, CWS, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 244 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Brett Myers, Hou, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 245 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Mark Melancon, Bos, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 246 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Jonathan Sanchez, KC, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 247 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Ryan Vogelsong, SF, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 248 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Mike Minor, Atl, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 249 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Raul Ibanez, NYY, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 250 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Francisco Cordero, Tor, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 251 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Jose Tabata, Pit, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 252 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Vernon Wells, LAA, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 22

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 253 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Mike Adams, Tex, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 254 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Derek Holland, Tex, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 255 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Ted Lilly, LAD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 256 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Tyler Clippard, Was, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 257 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Gordon Beckham, CWS, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 258 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Aaron Hill, Ari, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 259 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Brandon Belt, SF, 1B, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 260 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Chris Davis, Bal, 3B, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 261 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Peter Bourjos, LAA, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 262 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Mat Gamel, Mil, 3B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 263 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Jonathon Niese, NYM, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 264 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Jonny Venters, Atl, RP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 23

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 265 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Scott Baker, Min, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 266 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Edwin Jackson, Was, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 267 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Lorenzo Cain, KC, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 268 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Denard Span, Min, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 269 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> J.P. Arencibia, Tor, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 270 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Francisco Liriano, Min, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 271 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Bryce Harper, WAS, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 272 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Ben Revere, Min, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 273 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> James Loney, LAD, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 274 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Sergio Romo, SF, RP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 275 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Will Venable, SD, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 276 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Jake Peavy, CWS, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 24

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 277 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> Ryan Dempster, ChC, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 278 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Ivan Nova, NYY, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 279 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Jason Bartlett, SD, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 280 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Vance Worley, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 281 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Edinson Volquez, SD, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 282 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Jeff Niemann, TB, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 283 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Jason Bay, NYM, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 284 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Mike Trout, LAA, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 285 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> John Danks, CWS, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 286 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Tommy Milone, Oak, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 287 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Roy Oswalt, FA, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 288 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Chris Heisey, Cin, OF </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 25

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 289 </td><td> @patchus </td><td> Alcides Escobar, KC, SS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 290 </td><td> @TheAnaMachine </td><td> Gavin Floyd, CWS, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 291 </td><td> @tarnoldt </td><td> Trevor Bauer, ARI, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 292 </td><td> Matthew Berry </td><td> Jhoulys Chacin, Col, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 293 </td><td> @jeffpasquale </td><td> Mark Buehrle, Mia, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 294 </td><td> @AScarborough05 </td><td> Nyjer Morgan, Mil, OF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 295 </td><td> @jdharm </td><td> Casey Kotchman, Cle, 1B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 296 </td><td> @duece420 </td><td> Homer Bailey, Cin, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 297 </td><td> @GuyMHarrison </td><td> Joe Blanton, Phi, SP </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 298 </td><td> @vamsi </td><td> Wilson Ramos, Was, C </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 299 </td><td> @gmusmanni </td><td> Omar Infante, Mia, 2B </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 300 </td><td> @pdezara </td><td> A.J. Burnett, Pit, SP </td></tr></tbody></table>



Was thinking about ... all the first basemen that just went in Round 17, so I was mostly cursing myself for waiting one round too long there. I wanted to finish out the draft by addressing my starting pitching, hopefully get two more closers to give me something to possibly deal or just win that category and then once I have a lead, I can spot start over second half to make up for strikeouts and wins if needed. I also had one outfield spot open and felt a little nervous with my speed, as Dee Gordon is no sure thing, so wanted to make sure I shored that up.
Ended up taking ...


Round 18: Mark Trumbo. Sigh. Needed a first baseman. If his playing time were assured, this is a fine pick. Even a great one. And they want to find him at bats. He's been playing some third in spring training, Morales is no sure thing, he'll get some time in the outfield. He's got 30 homer potential if he gets at-bats. Not ideal, but could be worse.


Round 19: Wandy Rodriguez. I like him much more than our projections do. Way-Rod!


Round 20: Grant Balfour: My third "closer," I chose him because I feel he is most likely to get the job but he is also a much better pitcher than Brian Fuentes.


Round 21: Brett Myers, who was a successful closer before. You can be a very good closer on a bad team. And he's my fourth closer. Never pay for saves, kids. Learn it, love it, marry it in the state of Vermont.


Round 22: Peter Bourjos. A little pop (and more coming), nice speed, with an average that won't hurt you. Like him, obviously.


Round 23: Denard Span. And that takes care of my outfield. Another poster boy for my PPOBY theory, he is going waaaaay too late in drafts. The speed alone has value.


Rounds 24 and 25: Two pitchers that I have ranked much higher than our projections, I'm expecting nice years from John Danks (PPOBY!) and Jhoulys Chacin. If one of Danks, Chacin or Wandy perform at the level they have previously, I'm set.


Things that made me go hmmm ... Hard to really knock any picks this late. I always say there's no such thing as a bad pick after round 17, but I will say I would much rather go for a guy with upside rather than a guy like Mark Buehrle (Round 25, to @jeffpasquale), who is exactly what he is with no upside. You can always find a guy like that on the waiver wire. So some of the "flyers" I liked (and many good picks here) include Edwin Encanacion, who got stolen from me in round 18, Matt Joyce and Delmon Young in Round 19, Bud Norris in Round 20 (where once again Kenley Jansen goes ahead of the actual closer, Javy Guerra), Raul Ibanez, Addison Reed, Mike Minor and Ryan Vogelsong in Round 21, Mat Gamel and Jonathan Niese in Round 22, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy and Will Venable in Round 23, Vance Worley in Round 24 and Nyjer Morgan and Wilson Ramos in Round 25.


Draft room chatter:

@vamsi: Yep, knew Trumbo would go to Berry there. I keep forgetting to reach for "his" guy.


@tarnoldt: Boesch is a great pick. I forgot about him. Could have a huge year in front of Prince and Miguel.


@vamsi: Well, [Ryan Howard] could be the worst pick in the draft, but at 231 I'm willing to take the flyer...


@pdezara: Lord help me for what I am about to do& (He drafts Vernon Wells).

Final Thoughts

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<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 2 -->I had fun doing the draft, though it was weird with so many people knowing your thoughts without knowing theirs (the way you would in a mock with fellow analysts). There were some curveballs in there, but that's to be expected in any draft. I need to adjust my ranks to lower starting pitching even more and move a few guys up or down. Overall, I like my team. First base is a concern, but I've got a very strong, balanced offense with some batting average cushion, so I can deal for a free swinger mid-season if I need to pick up power. If any of my starting pitching hits, this team will be right there.


Of all the teams, I thought Amanda Scarborough (@ascarborough), the 24-year-old from Toronto, had the best team. Just goes to show, never judge a book by its cover. Or a mock draft. Thanks to all who participated; everyone was a good sport. Next time, I'm drafting with the gang from my Facebook page. They never pay attention to my ranks!

 

[HacheMan]

Are Dunn, Rios even worth late picks?

Eric Karabell

Some would presume the Chicago White Sox under new manager Robin Ventura have no shot to compete in the American League Central this season. After all, the Ozzie Guillen-led White Sox couldn't win half their games last season, seemed more intent on trading or letting their players walk via free agency this offseason (Sergio Santos, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Quentin) than buying, and the Detroit Tigers got stronger, at least on paper. How can the White Sox compete?


Well, this is why the games are played, and 2012 fantasy leagues are not decided by 2011 statistics. Players produce different numbers, some of them much better than the previous season. Two members of the White Sox lineup had miserable 2011 seasons, as if you weren't aware, in Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. A year ago, fantasy owners had visions of Dunn's first 50-homer season in their optimistic heads, and Rios was coming off a solid 2010 (21 home runs, 34 steals, .284 batting average). Dunn was the 37th pick, on average, in ESPN live drafts; Rios was 52nd.These days, Dunn is pick No. 200. Rios is going a mere six picks earlier. From coveted early-round picks to the 20th round, just like that. It's a bit hard to believe.


In all honesty, I view Dunn and Rios as later-round picks as well. However, in certain league setups, I'd take them earlier. Far too often, players are defined by our last looks at them, which doesn't exactly work in Dunn's or Rios' favor here. That said, Rios did have a strong September, hitting .307 with an .875 OPS and five home runs. For perspective, in April and July he hit .163! I know it's hard to fathom, considering his miserable first five months of 2011, but Rios still has the ability to produce those 2010 numbers again. Ventura has been batting him third in the lineup, perhaps an odd choice to some, but it's pretty much Rios or Dunn if Paul Konerko continues to hit cleanup, right?
While I kind of think Rios can turn on his motivation and ability when he pleases, I cannot explain what happened to Dunn. Something like that really hadn't occurred before in baseball history. Disregard Dunn all you like, but his worst power season since 2003 featured 38 home runs. Chicago's ballpark is still a nice place to hit. Dunn hit nearly half his weight. He had six hits all season against left-handed pitching, in 94 at-bats. It's unfathomable.
If choosing in the 19th or 20th round, I go with Rios. In fact, I'd go a few rounds earlier than that for him. He's a tad younger than Dunn, but that's not really the reason. Simply put, I don't think Dunn is going to hit better than .240 -- he hit .159 in 2011, though his career mark is .243 -- and I generally avoid batting-average killers, even if they come with power (Mark Reynolds is another example of this). Rios hit .284 in 2010. He steals bases, and as 20-homer/20-steal long shots go, he's not a bad pick at all. Don't count on Rios or Dunn as certain contributors to your team, and drafting them in formats in which teams don't have deep benches is a bad idea, but they're not bad comeback gambles at all.I wrote about center fielder and presumed leadoff option Alejandro De Aza recently, but here are my thoughts on other players at Ventura's disposal who I expect to be fantasy-viable in deeper formats this season. As of now, none of them are being selected in the top 200 of ESPN average live drafts (while Konerko, shortstop Alexei Ramirez, Rios, Chris Sale and Dunn are).


Dayan Viciedo, OF: When White Sox fans whine about the departure of Carlos Quentin, I counter with his younger, hopefully more durable, replacement, an emerging slugger who hit 20 home runs in each of the past two minor league seasons. It wouldn't shock me if Viciedo, a Cuban import who seemed to learn in 2011 how to draw the occasional walk, hits 20 home runs in the majors, too. He's 23 and is definitely someone to target in deep keeper formats.
Brent Morel, 3B: I've watched this guy enough to feel there's no way a 20-homer hitter is lurking, but he did smack eight home runs after Sept. 1 last season. He managed to accomplish this despite batting just .224 for the month. That's not easy. Morel entered September with an incomprehensible two home runs and, perhaps more incredibly, seven walks in five months, then went nuts with power and even drew 15 walks over the final 27 games. It makes no sense, but we can't discount the fact that there could be power lurking here. I could see 15 home runs, and if he maintains that September walk rate, a .270 batting average as well.John Danks, SP: It's odd to me that the only White Sox pitcher going in the first 21 rounds is Sale, and the 22-year-old has yet to start a big league game. Danks was a 14th-round pick in ESPN leagues a year ago. He's not too old (he's 26), he's not coming off injury … he just was unlucky in 2011. I mean, he had an 0-8 record heading into June. Overall, Danks actually had his best strikeout rate in a few years, and in June/July he was 4-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA. Now he's not draftable? I don't buy it. I'd take him over Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Philip Humber (who looks legit to me), and among the top 60 starting pitchers. Sale might be more of the home run option, but there's nothing wrong with Danks.