MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Bard Bullpen-Bound?

Daniel Bard has been pretty bad all season in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation, but he took the ineptitude to a new level Sunday.



The 26-year-old became the first pitcher in MLB history to allow six walks and hit two batters in an outing that lasted fewer than two innings. He gave up five runs over 1 2/3 frames despite allowing just one hit. After the game, Bard, who now holds a 5.24 ERA, 1.62 WHIP with 38 walks over 55 innings, sounded like a guy that’s got too much going through his mind when on the mound.



“(I’m) constantly trying to tweak little things in (my) delivery to make the next pitch a little better than the last,” Bard said in the Boston Globe. Bard added, "I think we've tried to change a few too many things. Maybe just get back to being simple."



Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine hasn’t decided if Bard will make his next scheduled start, saying he’ll “think about it a while." Daisuke Matsuzaka (elbow) has allowed just one run over his last two outings at Triple-A Pawtucket, as he appears closer to being big league-ready. He would be an obvious choice as Bard’s replacement in the rotation. The Red Sox bullpen is in a groove right now, so Bard would likely be eased back into a major role if he is moved back to the pen.



Jones Has Wrist Issues



Adam Jones is still feeling the after effects of a hit by pitch on his left wrist from this past Wednesday, but it turns out that his right wrist is actually a bigger issue.



The new $85.5 million man has been nursing soreness in his right wrist for weeks now, and it was pain in that wrist that forced him to leave Sunday’s game. He’ll receive an MRI on both wrists later Monday.



“It just didn’t feel right,” Jones told MLB.com regarding his right wrist. “I can feel it when I’m hitting. [The doctors] wanted to get a picture of it and I wanted to get a picture of it, and see what’s going on in there so we can be sure and relieve any doubt.”



Jones’ status is up in the air until the results of the MRIs are known, but we can’t imagine that the right wrist is a major issue given that the 26-year-old has hit safely in 23 of his last 24 games. Fantasy owners will still understandably be holding their collective breaths, as Jones has been a monster this season, batting .315/.363/.602 with 16 homers, 34 RBI and nine steals.



Lee Lands on DL



Carlos Lee is one of the few players that give the Astros some sock in their lineup, but they’ll have to make do without him for at least the next couple weeks.



Lee was placed on the disabled list Sunday with a left hamstring strain, an injury that he suffered Friday while running out of the batter’s box on a double play ball. It’s not clear at this point how long he’ll be out.



“I’m not healthy,” Lee said in the Houston Chronicle. ”But I can walk better now and I can get a little more strength, so I guess it’s improving.”



Taking Lee’s spot on the roster and at first base is Brett Wallace, who had a couple hits and scored a run in his first start of the season Sunday. Wallace batted .265/.327/.476 with 10 homers and 37 RBI over 202 plate appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City prior to his call-up, and the ‘Stros got him while he’s hot, as he had gone deep three times in his last four games, which included a grand slam Saturday. The former top prospect is worth scooping up in NL-only formats.







National League Quick Hits: Aramis Ramirez (quad) sat out Sunday’s game after straining his left quad Saturday. At this point, there’s been no indication that it’s serious, but you might want to have an alternative at third base just in case … Jon Niese struck out a career-high 10 batters in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals, but he also dealt with a rapid heartbeat and dizziness during the outing. Niese also dealt with the issue last year. He’ll be re-evaluated Monday, but the Mets don’t anticipate any problems … Huston Street (lat) made a second rehab appearance Sunday and appears set to return from the DL Tuesday, sending Dale Thayer back to a setup role … Ryan Braun didn’t start for a second straight game Sunday with Achilles and hip injuries. He appeared as a pinch-hitter, though, and is likely to return to the lineup Tuesday … Juan Nicasio has landed on the DL with a knee injury, and it’s not clear at this point how long he’ll be out. Guillermo Moscoso will replace him in the rotation … Brian McCann didn’t play Sunday after taking a pitch off his knee Saturday, but he hopes to be back in there Tuesday … Giants manager Bruce Bochy plans on giving more consistent playing time to Brandon Belt. Belt has struggled so far this season, but regular at-bats should certainly help … Jason Marquis is likely to join the Padres rotation this weekend after making one start in the minors. He’s undesirable for fantasy purposes, but we could see him being passable at home … Chris Young will make the start for the Mets Tuesday. It will be his first in the big leagues since May 1 of last season and just his ninth start since 2010.



American League Quick Hits: Felix Hernandez is a question mark for his next start due to a sore back. He’ll throw a bullpen session Monday before the Mariners determine his status for Wednesday … Dustin Pedroia (thumb) took two successful rounds of batting practice Saturday and plans to return to the lineup Tuesday. He’ll wear a brace on his injured thumb, but the Red Sox don’t think it will hinder him … Phil Hughes tossed the first complete game of his career in Sunday’s win over the Tigers. Though he was knocked around in his previous outing, he’s pitched much better of late and is looking like a solid mixed league play … Albert Pujols will move over to third base this weekend during interleague play at NL parks, allowing Kendrys Morales to slide in at first base … Carl Pavano will undergo an MRI Monday, but the Twins are already resigned to the fact that he’ll need time on the disabled list. Jeff Manship will take his spot in the rotation … Carlos Santana (concussion) is expected to be activated from the disabled list Tuesday after going through drills Saturday with no issues … John Danks (shoulder) has felt good during a couple bullpen sessions but is still expected to require a rehab start. He figures to rejoin the White Sox rotation next week … Andy Dirks has landed on the DL with an Achilles injury. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out, but Delmon Young will be the Tigers’ DH and Don Kelly will handle left field in the meantime … Joe Mauer left Sunday’s game with a mild sprain of his right thumb, but it’s not considered to be a big deal … Edwin Encarnacion left Sunday’s game after being hit on the right hand by a pitch, but X-rays came back negative, and he’s considered day-to-day.​

 

[HacheMan]

<table border="0" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0" width="940"><tbody><tr vAlign="top"><td width="843" align="left">Top MLB Draft Prospects This is not a mock draft. The rankings below, broken down by those under and over the age of 19, are my take on the cream of the crop of the 2012 First-Year Player Draft class. I’ve seen some of the players below live, watched video of the rest and narrowed down my player-pool focus based on industry information.


Under 19

1. Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
Age: 17.7

Correa has elite bat speed, athleticism and present power. He has an extremely strong arm and has given evaluators reason to believe he’ll stick at shortstop, despite his already 6-foot-4 frame. Likely to be the youngest player drafted in this year’s first round, he’s a balanced hitter who generates leverage from a solid base and takes a relatively effortless swing. There’s more projection in him, which could allow him to become an elite big leaguer. A case can be made that Correa has the highest upside of any hitter in the 2012 draft class. If I was heading the Astros’ draft, he’d be my choice with the No. 1 overall pick.

2. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
Age: 17.9

Giolito has not pitched in a game for nearly three months due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff that once had him getting No. 1 overall buzz -- no high school righty has ever been drafted No. 1 overall. While there’s no doubting his stuff, Giolito doesn’t do the best job generating energy with his core. His elbow injury and elite potential make him one of this year’s most intriguing players to follow.

3. Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (GA)
Age: 18.5

Big, strong, athletic teenage outfielder is a pretty popular draft profile. It was Bubba Starling in 2011, Bryce Harper in 2010, Donavan Tate in 2009, Aaron Hicks in 2008 and Jason Heyward in 2007. Buxton has easy bat speed, but his actions at the plate are that of a raw, long-armed hitter. And while he is fast, he takes a little while to get up to full speed. As far as his hit tool and overall athleticism go, Buxton isn’t on the same tier as any of the hitters above.

4. Albert Almora, OF Academy HS (FL)
Age: 18.2

Almora generates very good bat speed with a smooth, short swing. He’s not a projectable physical presence but 6-foot-2, 180 pounds is hardly little. His speed may be more suitable for a corner outfield position than center in the long run. Almora is a safer bet than Buxton to transition well to pro ball. Though he may have holes and limitations, he’s a decent bet to be a big leaguer and perhaps an above-average one.

5. Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
Age: 18.4

Fried has an advanced secondary, promising command for a pitcher his age and a frame that has some projection. While his long stride helps take stress off of his arm, he drops down quite a bit to get there, which results in a flat fastball plane. That Fried is among this year’s top draft talents speaks to the lack of elite amateurs available. He’s still someone to follow though.


Over 19

1. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco
Age: 20.7

With three offerings that already show average or better, in his fastball, power curve and changeup, Zimmer has the makings to be an above-average MLB starter. He didn’t start pitching full-time until his freshman year in college, and his velocity has fluctuated this season. It’s difficult to say if he’s been up-and-down because he’s still relatively new to pitching or for other reasons. Still, he’s very athletic and has No. 2 starter upside, which sounds pretty golden when you consider the other top amateurs who are eligible for the draft.

2. Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU
Age: 21.4

A draft-eligible sophomore, Gausman could be the oldest player taken inside the 2012 draft’s top 10 picks (Devin Marrero of ASU and Stephen Piscotty of Stanford are both older). He’s big and mechanical but he has above-average fastball velocity and pitches on an excellent plane. The ball also shoots out of his hand -- thanks to a good tempo and excellent arm speed -- and maintains velocity. He has a very live arm. His over-the-top arm slot helps him throw a power curveball that could become a plus offering. He also throws a slider and is comfortable throwing a changeup. Gausman could succeed in the big leagues this year as a reliever. His powerful arsenal and deception make him a potential No. 2 starter long-term.

3. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
Age: 20.9

Hearing about Appel’s raw stuff is more exciting than seeing him in action. And the knock on him has been that his stuff is better than the results. His mid-90s fastball, sharp-breaking slider and late-tumbling changeup all play down due to his lack of deception (Some pitchers hide the ball for the majority of their delivery; Appel shows it just about from start to finish). He also has a poor tempo, which makes him relatively easy to time. While he’s a pretty good bet to pitch in the big leagues, Appel may have trouble improving his deception and tempo at this stage of his development. There are more than three players in this draft class who have higher upsides than him.

4. Mike Zunino, C, Florida
Age: 21.2

College hitters are usually popular draft prospects. They move quickly and are more predictable than other profiles. Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon and Ryan Braun all arrived in the big leagues from college. Mike Zunino may be the best college bat in his class, though he doesn’t begin to compare to any of the college hitters list above. He’s also a lackluster athlete who can only play catcher or first base. He takes a good hand path to the ball and stays balanced and level, but he has a long swing that could be exploited in pro ball. Zunino’s value lies in his potential to be an average or better hitter for a catcher.

​

</td></tr><tr><td>
<table border="0" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="footerLink" height="20" align="center"></td></tr></tbody></table>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[HacheMan]

Bobby Abreu holding his own for Dodgers

Eric Karabell

Last week was a tough one for the NL-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, as they again lost superstar outfielder Matt Kemp to the disabled list with a recurring hamstring injury, along with solid left-hander Ted Lilly to a sore shoulder. Then they got spanked in a four-game home sweep by the Milwaukee Brewers and lost two of three at the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers scored an average of three runs per game for the week, and as they head to similarly sputtering Philadelphia for Monday's four-game series opener on ESPN, their NL West lead has shrunk to 3.5 games.




However, there have been a few positives for this offense lately. Tony Gwynn Jr. has been handling center field capably, and while he's not going to hit for any semblance of power, he has stolen six bases in his past six games. Jerry Hairston Jr., yet another of L.A.'s sons of former players, is hitting .372 and even batted cleanup (yikes!) recently (sell high, please). Prospect Alex Castellanos was promoted to the big leagues this week, and while his stay might be short-lived, he contributed a few hits and RBIs already. And then there's outfielder Bobby Abreu. He's old, bereft of power and defensive value … and yet he's sporting a cool .888 OPS as a Dodger in 26 games.

Abreu isn't close to as good as he was in his Phillies prime, or even when he played for the New York Yankees, but he also isn't nearly as bad as he looked in April for the Los Angeles Angels, which makes him an interesting fantasy free-agent pickup in deep formats (14-plus teams) and NL-only leagues, especially if walks, OBP or OPS matter. If your 10-team league counts walks, Abreu already matters. Abreu came to the plate four times Sunday; he saw 23 pitches. Leadoff batter Dee Gordon saw 11. As a team the Dodgers are among the best in the game in OBP, thanks to Kemp, Andre Ethier and surprise catcher A.J. Ellis, but you're not going to find a 40-homer guy sitting on the scrap heap. The Dodgers did find a .400 OBP guy there, thanks to the Angels dumping Abreu (which was justified because Mike Trout is amazing). So far this has worked for both L.A. teams.


Abreu lost the ability to drive baseballs over fences on a consistent basis years ago, and the Dodgers must use a defensive replacement for him. But in his month with the Dodgers, he has delivered a .437 OBP, seeing 4.18 pitches per plate appearance (that would be tied for 12th in baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title), and he actually has created more runs per 27 outs than Ethier has for the season. No, Abreu isn't Ethier, but he's a lot more patient and can steal bases, and in many leagues that matters.


By the way, Abreu did homer Saturday. While I'm skeptical it's a harbinger of big things, he did hit 20 home runs and 41 doubles as recently as 2010. The pessimist will point out he slugged only .435 and then fell apart in 2011, but so often we write off older players coming off a bad season (see Lance Berkman after 2010). Abreu has seven extra-base hits in his first 71 Dodgers at-bats; that's not a particularly noteworthy rate and it's a small sample size, but last year Abreu managed a sad 39 extra-base hits in 502 at-bats. Could he swat three or four home runs per month the rest of the way, reaching 12-15? That really wouldn't be shocking, and when the 12 homers come with 22 stolen bases and a .275 average, that's relevant.


Don't get too excited about the power, but even for those in 5x5 leagues that don't care about the walks, consider the potential for batting average and stolen bases. Abreu did steal a base Sunday, his second, and he has always been a provider in that category. Even last season, when Abreu's dwindling power completely deserted him, he did take his walks (tied for 15th in MLB) and he stole 21 bases. Abreu has stolen 20 or more bases every season since 1999. I think he'll do it again. Also, while his current BABIP is elevated over his normal levels, and he batted only .253 last season, I don't assume he'll bat .253 again. After all, he's a career .293 hitter.


What's going to happen to the Dodgers when Kemp returns, hopefully in three weeks, is that Abreu will be hitting for enough average, taking a lot of walks and stealing the occasional base in left field, and with Kemp back, Abreu can move up to leadoff, where he belongs. There's value in that, too. This isn't a superstar, and he's not going to have a Berkman-in-2011 season, but Abreu can still contribute in a deep fantasy league, where every 20-steal guy is owned. When Abreu hits .275 with 22 stolen bases and hopefully 10 home runs and 65 RBIs, those who own him in deeper leagues will be pleased.

 

[HacheMan]

Sticking to your guns

Don't get too crazy in making unnecessary lineup moves


By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Points leagues are somewhat unique in format in that there's a reset button each week. It's not like rotisserie leagues, where if your team struggles for the first month or so of the season, you find yourself in a deep hole in the overall standings that might be insurmountable regardless of your actions the rest of the way.

Every scoring period gives your team a clean slate, but that's only if you can stay out of your own way.


Many leagues allow fantasy owners to adjust their lineups on a daily basis. Certainly, this is a very welcome rule if you have a player go down to injury on Monday night and can swap him out for a healthier individual rather than get an automatic six days of goose eggs. But more often than not, this power to make moves midweek ends up with impatient owners shooting themselves in the foot.


Let's look at an owner in a deep league with a second-base tandem to choose between Darwin Barney and Gordon Beckham, and how this past week might have worked out.


The owner set the lineup on Monday and decided to go with Beckham, who is ranked higher on the ESPN Player Rater. In three games against Tampa Bay, he goes a combined 3-for-13 and gives his owner one, zero and one fantasy point in ESPN standard scoring.


Meanwhile, "benchwarmer" Barney goes 5-for-10 with two home runs and five RBIs versus the San Diego Padres. If he had been in the lineup, said owner would have had games of 6, 7 and 14 fantasy points.



Both players had Thursday off, giving this hypothetical fantasy owner plenty of time to reconsider his starting second baseman's identity. Does he go with "the hot hitter" or does he stick with the lackluster Beckham? He decides to make the change.



TOP 100 OVERALL PLAYERS

Note: AJ Mass' Top 100 overall players are ranked based on statistics that have already been accrued in ESPN standard points formats and should be used as a supplement to the ESPN Player Rater.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, SP, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, SP, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, SP, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, DH, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, SP, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, OF, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, 1B, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, OF, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, 3B, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, 3B/1B, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, RP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, OF, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, SP, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, OF, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, 1B, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, OF, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, 3B/OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, SP, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Reddick, OF, OAK </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, C, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, SP, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, SP, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, SS, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, SP, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, SP, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, OF, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, SP, SEA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, RP, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, C, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, SP, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, OF, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Pierzynski, C, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, SS, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, SP, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, OF, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, OF, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Doubront, SP, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Hanrahan, RP, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, SP, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, SP, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alejandro De Aza, OF, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, OF, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, SP, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, OF, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, SS, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Aviles, SS, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, 2B, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, SP, ARI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, 3B, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, DH, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, RP, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Perez, RP, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dexter Fowler, OF, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jerome Williams, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr></tbody></table>




The result? Beckham wakes up and hits three home runs with seven RBIs to record 24 total points over the second half of the scoring period. Barney returns to his light-hitting ways, and his 3-for-10 weekend results in only four fantasy points.


In other words, if the owner had stuck with Beckham, he would have had 26 points for the week. If he had gone with Barney for the whole week, he would have had 31 points. By making the wrong initial call and then chasing the hot hand, he turned two players with a combined 57 points into a lineup spot that recorded just six points for the week.


Yes, he could well have gotten lucky if he had chosen Barney initially and then went against his early-week success, swapping him out in time for Beckham's solid series against Seattle. That would have netted him 51 total points, far more than any individual player for the past seven days.



However, simply sticking with either Barney or Beckham would have given the fantasy owner no worse than the fourth-best second baseman for the scoring period -- and since the owner also owned the other guy, let's bump that up to "no worse than third-best."


The lesson here is to stay out of your own way. Set your lineup and let it ride. Patience will, more often than not, give you the better chance of maximizing your probability of winning your weekly matchup.


Pointing Up



Jerome Williams, SP, Los Angeles Angels: Sure, the home/road splits make Williams look like a part-time play. He's 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA at home and only 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA elsewhere. However, he's now had two straight quality starts away from home, and the only teams that have "beat him up" are the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. Avoid the toughest matchups and he should do just fine.


Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies: Certainly Cuddyer's recent week at home allowed his stock to rise, thanks to a .364 batting average, eight runs scored and nine RBIs. However, it should be noted that his fantasy points production is not all a Coors Field creation. Cuddyer is averaging 1.83 total bases per game at home, and that number drops to 1.68 on the road. That's not significant enough a drop to bench him simply because his team has switched uniform colors.


Felix Doubront, SP, Boston Red Sox: In his last five starts, Doubront has averaged 17.8 fantasy points, and all but one of these came against teams with winning records, the lone exception being the Detroit Tigers, not exactly a lackluster lineup. With a 2.93 K/BB rate since May 1, this is clearly the Red Sox pitcher to own in points leagues.


Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers: In the midst of an 11-game hitting streak, where Fielder has simply been mashing the ball, the most important stat for points leaguers is that he has but a single K over that span. With three straight weeks of 20 or more fantasy points, you're finally getting consistent first-round value from Fielder. And while not all batting streaks are created equal, one in which you hit .452 certainly is to be respected.


Santiago Casilla, RP, San Francisco Giants: Despite a rough outing against the Chicago Cubs on June 1, and an injury that held him out the remainder of the week, the closer still posted his fourth consecutive double-digit scoring period. Since May 17, he has a 1.04 ERA and a .229 batting average against. With only three walks allowed since the start of May, Casilla simply isn't going to add fuel to the fire too often.


Alejandro De Aza, OF, Chicago White Sox: Sometimes, slow and steady does win the race. While de Aza has not had any double-digit games over the past two scoring periods, he's still been as consistent as they come. With six points here and four points there, the outfielder has managed a .458 OBP in his past 10 games, stolen five bases and driven in 11 in the process. It's far from flashy, but it's a reason that in points leagues he's starting to catch up to his top-10 rank at his position in the ESPN Player Rater.


Pointing Down



Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston Astros: He can't keep the ball in the park. The four round-trippers he allowed to the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday marked the third multi-homer outing in Rodriguez's past six starts. While a 4.62 ERA over that stretch is not something a pitcher of his ilk can't rebound from, the fact is that the Astros are just 4-8 in his 12 starts in 2012, and the likelihood of increased success in that department simply isn't there.


Tommy Milone, SP, Oakland Athletics: Milone has now lost three of his past four games despite a solid 2.93 ERA, thanks to practically no run support from his lineup (three runs scored in the four starts). However, he also allowed 30 hits in those games, to go along with five free passes. Since he's yet to strike out more than six in any contest, the lack of victories hurts him far more than most pitchers.


Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Thank goodness Dunn gets points for walks, lest his contributions for the past week be completely negative. He is mired in a 2-for-25 slump, with 14 strikeouts. Both the hits have sailed over the wall, which somewhat salvages the last scoring period. I've tried to be supportive, but even with a .324 OBP, Dunn needs to put a few more balls in play -- even if they are outs -- in order to be a viable points league option.


Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: His power has seemingly dissipated, with only two homers since May 10 after having hit seven up to that point. He has also hit only three doubles in that span, meaning it's pretty much singles or bust for Joyce. If he were hitting at a .320 clip, that might be appealing, but as his batting average has now dipped below .290, the arrow is definitely pointing in the wrong direction.


Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: It's not exactly Jansen's fault that the Dodgers went 1-6 last week, leaving little opportunity for saves. However, in the past 16 days, he has had just five appearances. That's simply not enough of a workload for fantasy owners who need consistent outings to remain competitive in a head-to-head environment. Now the team will fly all the way to Philadelphia for a series, then right back across the country to Seattle. Lack of work and added travel? This is not a good time to own Jansen.


Mike Aviles, SS, Boston Red Sox: With a .200 OBP since May 22 -- eight strikeouts and zero walks over that stretch -- there's hardly room for argument that Aviles has been an albatross. He's only had 14 fantasy points in the past two scoring periods and five of those came last Monday, most of which he tried to give back by the end of Week 8 with a negative-scoring weekend. He's no longer Bobby V's leadoff hitter and no longer worthy of your fantasy affections either.

 

[HacheMan]

Parker Baffles Rangers

Jarrod Parker had pitched very well in his first seven starts for the A’s. He had something special in store for his eighth.



Going up against the mighty Rangers in front of his home crowd at O.co Coliseum Monday night, Parker spun seven no-hit innings before Michael Young led off the eighth with a dribbler up the middle that found center field. Parker retired the next two batters on two pitches -- getting a pop-up and a double-play ball -- before being removed with his pitch count at 111. He walked three and struck out six over his eight frames.



Parker has now permitted two runs or fewer in seven of eight outings with the A’s this season, and he sports a tidy 2.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 48 2/3 innings. The 35/24 K/BB ratio isn’t appealing, and Parker has been known to get wild from time to time. The 23-year-old has terrific stuff, though, so we expect the strikeout rate to climb.



Correa Goes No. 1



The Astros pulled a surprise at the top of the MLB Draft Monday, going with high school shortstop Carlos Correa over Stanford right-hander Mark Appel and high school outfielder Byron Buxton.



Correa was universally considered a top-five talent, so it was hardly a reach for the ‘Stros and first-year general manager Jeff Luhnow. The 6-foot-4, 190-pounder will begin pro ball as a shortstop, but the Astros concede that he might eventually need to move to third base. His bat is fully expected to play there also, though.



Buxton went to the Twins with the No. 2 pick, which is where many had him pegged to go all along. The 18-year-old outfielder was ranked as the draft's top overall prospect by many, and while he’s yet to fully grow into his power, he has plus power potential and ample speed. Due to signability concerns, Appel had to wait until the No. 8 pick, where the Pirates popped him. He profiles as a potential ace and should be a fast-mover for the Bucs.



Another notable pick was the Nats’ selection at No. 16 of high school right-hander Lucas Giolito, who would have been under consideration for the top spot if not for an elbow injury. If Giolito signs with the Nats and proves to be healthy, he gives them a potential No. 1 starter down the line. The most major league-ready pick figures to be Duke righty Marcus Stroman. A starter his junior year, many see Stroman as a reliever and one that could help out the Blue Jays in the second half this season.



Starlin in the Doghouse



Starlin Castro has often been prone to lackadaisical play, and his latest gaffe could earn him a spot on the bench.



With the Cubs up 2-1 in the fifth inning Monday against the Giants, Darwin Barney fielded a grounder and flipped it to Castro hoping to start an inning-ending double play. Castro, though, thought there were already two outs, and he simply received the ball at second base and then began to head to the Cubs’ dugout. The mental mistake drew the ire of manager Dale Sveum, who threatened to bench his star shortstop.



“It’s something that’s obviously unacceptable at any time, whether we turned the double play or not,” Sveum said in the Chicago Sun-Times. “It’s not acceptable. Those things have to stop happening or he’s going to stop playing. Last straw. If he wants to play, he better get his head in the game, period.”



If Sveum does decide to bench Castro, it likely won’t be for more than a game or two, so it’s not as if it’s a major deal for fantasy owners. The 22-year-old is likely in need of a wake-up call, though.







National League Quick Hits: Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports that Trevor Bauer is expected to be promoted “soon.” He’s worth stashing in fantasy if he’s on the waiver wire … The Giants are not happy with Pablo Sandoval’s commitment, as Kung Fu Panda has evidently blown up while rehabbing from hand surgery. He played third base for the first time during his rehab assignment Monday … Jon Niese left his start Sunday with dizziness and a rapid heartbeat, but the Mets aren’t concerned and the left-hander is expected to make his next start at this point … Jeff Francis has opted out of his minor league deal with the Reds and is now looking for a new home. His former team, the Rockies, reportedly have shown interest … Alex Presley is on his way back up to the Pirates after mashing at Triple-A since his demotion … Jon Rauch will have his elbow checked out after dealing with some tenderness … Vance Worley wasn’t sharp in his return to action Monday, giving up three runs on five hits and three walks over four innings. He didn’t have any rehab outings, so it’s understandable that he was rusty … Jason Bay (rib) won’t rejoin the Mets Tuesday as originally anticipated after coming down with an illness. He should be back later this week … Hong-Chi Kuo has inked a minor league deal with the Cubs. He won’t join them anytime soon but has the potential to help when he does.



American League Quick Hits: Dustin Pedroia is expected to return to the lineup Tuesday after missing the last six games with a torn adductor muscle in his right thumb … Yoenis Cespedes left Monday’s game with a patella issue with his knee, but it’s considered minor and he could be back in the lineup Tuesday … Tom Wilhelmsen on Monday received the first true save chance for the Mariners since Brandon League’s demotion and converted it in impressive fashion. He appears to be the guy to own for saves in Seattle right now … Carl Pavano (shoulder) has landed on the disabled list as expected. He’s been diagnosed with a right anterior capsular strain, and although no timetable for a return has been set, he figures to miss ample time … Joe Mauer sat out Monday’s game after leaving Sunday’s contest with a sprained right thumb. All indications are that the injury is minor and he should be back in action in a day or two … An MRI on Adam Jones' hands and wrists came back negative. He plans to return to the lineup Tuesday … Brett Anderson (elbow) and Dallas Braden (shoulder) have both resumed their throwing programs. Neither pitcher will be ready to help out the A’s prior to the All-Star break … The Red Sox will come together on a plan for Daniel Bard on Tuesday. It seems likely that the hard-throwing right-hander is headed back to the bullpen after posting a 5.24 ERA over 11 outings – 10 starts … David Aardsma’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is going well enough that the Yankees think he can help them in the second half. He went under the knife last July.​

 

[HacheMan]

2012 MLB Draft: Round 1
With the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft over, the Rotoworld staff offers a pick-by-pick breakdown of Monday's events, beginning with the Houston Astros' surprise selection with the first overall pick.



1. Houston Astros - Carlos Correa SS Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

After being connected to Stanford RHP Mark Appel for months, rookie Astros GM Jeff Lunhow has thrown a curveball with his first ever pick. A spindly 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, Correa is still a month shy of his 18th birthday. He's also Rotoworld prospect guru Adam Foster's top rated under-19 player, and boasts incredible bat speed to go along with elite defensive range and athleticism. Billed as a solid baserunner and excellent worker, Correa has the tools to develop into a perennial All Star.

2. Minnesota Twins - Byron Buxton CF Appling County HS, Ga.

Buxton developed into a prep phenom in the barren baseball field of Georgia. The five-tool 18-year-old outfielder was ranked as the draft's top overall prospect by ESPN's Keith Law and MLB.com's Jon Mayo, amongst many others. All five of Buxton's tools are considered by some to be 70 or above, a grading metric that signifies All-Star level. Twins GM Terry Ryan hopes that Minnesota fans, who have watched its team fall to the depths of the league, will travel a little further, as Buxton will require patience. The hope, of course, is that he could lead the club back to Zihuatanejo: Minnesota's first World Series since 1991.

3. Seattle Mariners - Mike Zunino C Florida

The consensus No. 1 catcher in this year's draft, Zunino is also this year's top college bat. Already 21, he's batting .316/.388/.667 for the Gators this season after receiving All-American and SEC Player of the Year honors in 2011. A true power bat, Zunino likely won't be down on the farm for long, but doesn't have the athleticism to stick anywhere other than catcher or first base.

4. Baltimore Orioles - Kevin Gausman RHP LSU

Most assumed that Baltimore, badly in need of pitching, would grab draft-slider Mark Appel, but they went with Gausman, who was ranked three spots ahead of Appel by ESPN's Keith Law. Goose is still growing into his frame and displays three plus pitches. A ground-ball machine, Gausman excelled as a sophomore in college baseball's toughest conference. He is a potential No. 1 starter, but projects more neatly as a No. 2.

5. Kansas City Royals - Kyle Zimmer RHP University of San Francisco

A power righty out of the University of San Francisco, Zimmer's stock slipped a bit after his velocity dipped as a junior, possibly due to a hamstring injury. A well-built 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, he boasts a power curve to go along with a mid-90s fastball and decent changeup. Still just 19, however, Zimmer may need more time in the minors than most high-end college arms.

6. Chicago Cubs - Albert Almora CF Mater Academy Charter School, Fla.

Almora is considered to have great makeup and plenty of tools. While he was not considered in the same class as Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa, Almora, an elite defensive center fielder, has been compared to Orioles superstar Adam Jones. Theo Epstein and company have been linked to Almora throughout the process and their infatuation proved not to be a mirage. Nobody would have thought Mark Appel would be available to the Cubs, but Epstein and Hoyer stuck to their guns anyway.

7. San Diego Padres - Max Fried LHP Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.

Widely considered the top high-school lefty in this year's draft class, Fried doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but boasts excellent command and secondary pitches. A wiry 6-foot-4, 170 pounds, however, he will need to fill out his frame as he refines his pitches on the farm. Fried has drawn (loose) comparisons to Barry Zito.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates - Mark Appel RHP Stanford

Houston shocked the baseball industry, and drew gasps from MLB Network's draft commentary team, when they passed on Appel, the presumed first pick, and selected Carlos Correa. Teams continued to pass, much to Pittsburgh's delight, even though they needed offense more than pitching. Appel looks like a prototypical ace at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds. He has hit 100 mph on the radar gun and was 9-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 116/24 K/BB rate in 110 innings during Stanford's regular season. He isn't without detractors, however, with some draft experts leaving Appel outside their Top-3 available prospect lists, mostly because scouts feel hitters pick the ball up easily out of his hands due to Appel's effortless delivery which doesn't deceive.

9. Miami Marlins - Andrew Heaney LHP Oklahoma State

The top college lefty in this year's draft class, Heaney led Division I in strikeouts despite a fastball that sits "just" in the high 80s- to lower-90s. Buoyed by excellent command and plus breaking stuff, Heaney will need to refine his changeup on the farm. One day shy of his 21st birthday, Heaney isn't considered a future ace in most circles, but should move quickly through the minor leagues.

10. Colorado Rockies - David Dahl CF Oak Mountain HS, Ala.

Dahl, an Auburn commit, has very good speed for a 6'2'', 185-pound outfielder who should only get bigger. Dahl is another five-tool high-schooler, but none of his tools are considered elite, unlike some of the players picked above him. The left-handed hitting Dahl has drawn comparisons to Johnny Damon and Colby Rasmus, but he likens himself to Jacoby Ellsbury. He's years away from the majors, but Colorado loves his raw tools.<!--RW-->



11. Oakland Athletics - Addison Russell SS Pace HS, Fla.

It's the first time the A's have used their first-round pick on a prep talent since 2001. A stocky 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, Russell shed over 20 pounds as a senior in an effort to prove he could stick at shortstop. He's still viewed in some circles as a future third baseman, however. Wherever he plays, he'll boast impressive raw power, but still has a lot of developing to do as a hitter. "Advised" by Scott Boras, it's possible Russell will take his talents to the University of Auburn if he doesn't like the money the A's are offering.

12. New York Mets - Gavin Cecchini SS Barbe HS, La.

Cecchini's brother, Garin, was picked in the 2010 draft and is in the Red Sox organization. Gavin is a heady player whose instincts have made him a solid fielder. Scouts, however, believe his long-term position may be second base. The younger Cecchini has a smooth, quick stroke. As long as he sticks in the middle of the infield, his bat will prove to be an asset. Described as "scrappy," a "hard-worker," and a "smart player," the thinking is that Gavin, who has been speaking to his brother about pro baseball for two years, is about as low risk a high-school pick as you can make at No. 12.

13. Chicago White Sox - Courtney Hawkins OF Carroll HS, Texas

Raw in the "art" of hitting, Hawkins nevertheless possesses explosive bat speed and power to spare. Hawkins' speed is only average, but he profiles as an asset on defense. Still only 18, however, Hawkins will likely spend many years on the farm before arriving in "The Show."

14. Cincinnati Reds - Nick Travieso RHP Archbishop McCarthy HS, Fla.

Some might consider this a reach, but the Reds clearly love talented, power arms and that's precisely what Travieso is. The prep from Florida's favorite player is Roger Clemens and the youngster flings heat like his idol. Travieso can reach the high-90's and has the potential to develop two plus secondary pitches. But therein lies the rub: Travieso will have to develop a pair of complements to his nasty fastball or iron out his control, or he'll be destined for the bullpen. If he can't do either, he's going to wash out.

15. Cleveland Indians - Tyler Naquin OF Texas A&M

Naquin can hit (.385 this season), but his No. 1 tool is his throwing arm, which is elite. He's also a plus defender and runner, and is surely being drafted with an eye toward manning center field in Cleveland. Naquin's power may never develop, but already 21, he shouldn't be terribly far from the big leagues.

16. Washington Nationals - Luc Giolito RHP Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.

By all accounts, this is a fascinating pick. The Nationals have never been afraid of taking risks, whether on talent or medical history. In recent history, that ideology has worked. Giolito was a potential No. 1 talent before a tender elbow shut down his prep career in March. Tests revealed no ligament or tendon damage, so this seems like a wise gamble by Mike Rizzo. Giolito, a 6-6, 230-pound monster, has hit 100 mph on the gun and has ace potential. Of course, Washington has plenty of stud starters on the roster, a group Giolito hopes to join in the next four years, even if he has to sit out the rest of the 2012 season.

17. Toronto Blue Jays - D.J. Davis OF Stone County HS, Miss.

An elite runner and athlete, Davis is nevertheless extremely raw as a hitter. Three weeks shy of his 18th birthday, he's also one of the youngest players in this year's draft class. He has monster upside, however, and will be one of the Jays' corner outfielders for years to come if everything breaks right. He'll obviously need years on the farm.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers - Corey Seager 3B Northwest Cabarrus HS, N.C.

Seager's brother, Kyle, plays for the majors and was shown watching his little bro being selected on an iPad in the dugout. Corey has tremendous bat speed and very good power potential. He played short in high school, but the youngster, already 6'3'', 190 pounds, is going to outgrow the position. He's expected to move to the hot corner. The Dodgers have competition for his services, as Seager is firmly committed to South Carolina. If he decides to go the college route, Seager is expected to be picked even higher in three years.

19. St. Louis Cardinals (Albert Pujols-LAA) - Michael Wacha RHP Texas A&M

A towering 6-foot-6, 200 pounds, Wacha has spent the past three years dominating for the Aggies. He boasts a formidable changeup to go along with a mid-90s heater, but has yet to develop a consistent breaking pitch. Wacha doesn't boast as high of a ceiling as some of the other arms taken this evening, and may never turn into a No. 1 or 2 starter. He's a strong bet to reach the big leagues, however.

20. San Francisco Giants - Chris Stratton RHP Mississippi State

San Francisco practically sprinted to the podium to get this pick in, as they probably didn't believe they'd have a shot at Stratton when the evening began. Stratton began the season in the bullpen, but quickly became the Bulldogs' ace and led the SEC in strikeouts. He has an ideal frame and a four-pitch arsenal. All of his tools are projected to be between average and above-average at the major league level. Assuming the late-bloomer fulfills that prophecy, the Giants just snagged no worse than a middle-of-the-rotation starter.<!--RW-->



21. Atlanta Braves - Lucas Sims RHP Brookwood HS, Ga.

A star high-school shortstop, Sims boasts an explosive mid-90s fastball to go along with a plus curveball and solid changeup. He has raw mechanics, however, and may eventually be shifted to the bullpen. Although he's a superior athlete, Sims is years away from Atlanta.

22. Toronto Blue Jays (Tyler Beede-unsigned) - Marcus Stroman RHP Duke

Jonathan Mayo immediately said on the MLB Network telecast that Stroman, "could be the steal" of the first round. Stroman, considered a no-risk pick, would have been a Top-5 pick were he not 5'9''. Because of his stature, most scouts believe he doesn't have the frame to handle the rigors of starting in the major leagues. The Blue Devil, however, has the rock solid four-pitch repertoire of a starter. Will he be this season's Trevor Bauer? Will Stroman profile as more of a Tom Gordan or Francisco Rodriguez-type, as MLB's experts suggested? One thing is for sure: Stroman is one of this year's most intriguing picks.

23. St. Louis Cardinals - James Ramsey OF Florida State

A 22nd-round pick in 2011, Ramsey elected to return to Florida State for his senior year of college. Billed as a "hard worker" and "leader," Ramsey may be knocked as a low-upside pick, but truly does boast above-average intangibles to go along with a plus glove and speed. He won't hit for power, but his well-rounded game could have him in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

24. Boston Red Sox - Deven Marrero SS Arizona State

Marrero was projected in the Top-10 of most mock drafts -- and came into the season as a consensus Top-5 pick -- but was pushed down the board due to a rough season and shuffling of ideologies of clubs above Boston. All of which is to the Red Sox benefit, as Marrero is an elite talent. While scouts soured a bit on him due to questionable effort this past, Marrero should stick at shortstop due to his superb instincts and hands. He should be able to hit for a consistently high average throughout his journey through the minors and probably isn't several years away from Fenway.

25. Tampa Bay Rays - Richie Shaffer 3B Clemson

Perhaps this year's top college power bat, Shaffer can play either corner infield spot, but will likely be slated for first with Evan Longoria occupying the hot corner in Tampa. Shaffer has the athleticism to man right field if need be. A polished hitter with relatively few holes in his swing, there's a strong chance Shaffer will reach the big leagues.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Stryker Trahan C Acadiana HS, La.

Trahan has a big bat and a better name for a masher. The biggest question is whether or not Trahan can stick behind the plate. In that way, it's surprising he was taken by an NL team, though some believe he could eventually stick in right field. Trahan has been compared to Royals prospect Wil Myers, but he doesn't have the ceiling of Kansas City's future cornerstone.

27. Milwaukee Brewers (Prince Fielder-DET) - Clint Coulter C Union HS, Wash.

A state champion wrestler in Washington, Coulter has drawn loose comparisons to Mike Napoli. He may not have the defensive ability to stick behind the plate, but should have the power to man first base if a position switch becomes necessary. Coulter is still two months shy of his 19th birthday, and didn't face much top-flight competition in the Northwest, so he could need a number of seasons in the minors.

28. Milwaukee Brewers - Victor Roache OF Georgia Southern

With their second consecutive pick, Milwaukee grabbed an outfielder that some believe is a Top-10 talent in the draft. Roache has good bat speed and power, but he has never played against top competition, so there is some concern about that. He profiles as a corner outfielder, but his arm strength will play well there.

29. Texas Rangers - Lewis Brinson CF Coral Springs HS, Fla.

Brinson is a potential five-tool talent, but isn't particularly polished in any one area as an 18 year old out of Florida. He'll need years to develop on the farm, which makes the stacked-at-the-MLB-level Rangers a perfect landing spot. If all goes to plan, Brinson will reach Texas in 3-4 years as an above-average defender with solid power and plus speed.

30. New York Yankees - Ty Hensley RHP Edmond Santa Fe HS, Okla.

The state of Oklahoma graduated Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley to pro baseball last season and Hensley follows in their footsteps. Hensley, who has a great frame at 6'4'', 220, has a solid fastball and a killer curve. He will have to develop another pitch or two and clean up his mechanics. If he can do so, he could be a steal for the Bombers.

31. Boston Red Sox (Jonathan Papelbon-PHI) - Brian Johnson LHP Florida

Also a hard-hitting first baseman, Johnson doesn't project as an above-average MLB talent, but instead a polished, middle-of-the-rotation type who won't need much time to develop in the minors. Johnson's fastball is not a plus-pitch, but he locates it extremely well. How quickly he refines his ordinary breaking stuff should determine when he reaches the bigs.

 

[HacheMan]

Buy low on Adam Wainwright

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Adam Wainwright had one of his worst outings of 2012 this past Friday; the seven earned runs he allowed were his second most of the season, and his 36 Game Score was his third worst number all year. He now has a 4.98 ERA, his highest in any full big league season, and his six losses are tied for the National League lead.
Let's therefore throw everyone a curve: It is now time to trade for Wainwright.


It's fitting "curve" describes such an awkward, unexpected proclamation; Wainwright's staple pitch, the one everyone recognizes as his best, is the curveball. And in recent outings, he has shown enough improvement with that particular offering that, in spite of his raw Rotisserie numbers, he's an ideal trade target.


Those who recall my preseason Wainwright analysis might recall my insistence that his drafting owners be patient through his probable early struggles. If you drafted him, here's hoping you've been patient. If you didn't, now is the perfect time to submit your trade offers for Wainwright. Remember, the prime time to pounce is directly after one of a pitcher's poorer outings, not directly after he has strung together three outstanding performances. The point here is to be ahead of the curve with Wainwright, and there are hints that, perhaps by July 1 as a ballpark date, he might restore much of his pre-surgery stock.


Here are the pertinent numbers regarding Wainwright's curveball:


• In his first eight starts, he afforded opposing hitters a .701 OPS with the pitch, issued walks on 13.0 percent of plate appearances that ended with one, threw 41 percent of them in the strike zone and surrendered a .211 well-hit average with them (that measuring the percentage of at-bats that ended in hard contact).


• In his past three starts, Wainwright has allowed a .619 OPS with his curve, hasn't walked anyone in a PA ending with one, has thrown 46 percent in the strike zone and surrendered a .105 well-hit average.


• Wainwright has also thrown curveballs 24 percent of the time in his past three starts, compared to 21 percent of the time in his first eight.

Those numbers might sound insignificant, but coupled with rising usage of the pitch, Wainwright seems like he's growing more comfortable with the feel of his curve. Be aware that, in 2010, he issued only 10 walks in 275 PAs that ended with a curveball (3.6 percent). When Wainwright's curve has been sharp, he doesn't miss with it. It's also particularly difficult to hit: Only 30 times in all of 2010 did a hitter make hard contact against a Wainwright curveball, meaning that only 11 percent of his PAs ending in a curve resulted in hard contact. In his past three starts, to compare, he has allowed hard contact just once -- on Daniel Murphy's triple on June 1 -- in 21 PAs, meaning in only 5 percent of his PAs.


As for Wainwright's overall command, consider that he has a 1.69 walks-per-nine ratio in his past three starts, compared to 3.30 in his first eight, and he has thrown 51 percent of his pitches within the strike zone in his past three turns, up from 48 percent during his first eight.


This isn't to say that Wainwright's recovery has reached a perfect stage. Far from it: His average fastball velocity is still beneath 90 mph -- 89.5 mph in his past three starts -- which is beneath his 90.9 mph number in 2010. He also has a mere 18 percent swing-and-miss rate his past three starts, whereas during his heyday of 2010 his number in the category was 23 percent.


But the point of the "buy-low" proclamation with Wainwright is to get in on the low end of the upward curve, and it appears that he'll reach the pinnacle at some point this season, likely during the second half. If you can get him, say, for anything beneath the price of a top-25 starter, do so now.


Following along with the theme of it being time to acquire Wainwright, let's make a few other bold, "it is now time" predictions for starting pitchers.


"It is now time…" for Johnny Cueto's owners to sell, sell, sell. Cueto has been one of the most pleasant surprises in fantasy baseball thus far, ranking 29th among starters per our Player Rater, 17th in the majors in quality start percentage (72.7) and 11th in ERA (2.54). But a quick look at his peripherals, as well as the career patterns he followed during his first four major league seasons, suggests that he's perhaps the smartest sell-high candidate in the game. Cueto's FIP (3.61) ranks 39th out of 115 qualified starters, his xFIP (4.05) ranks 69th, and only 26 qualifiers have a worse strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio than his 5.83. Simply put, a pitcher who puts the ball in play that frequently at a venue like Great American Ball Park is due for regression. Among the eight historical ERA qualifiers to have called it their home ballpark and had K's-per-nine ratios of six or worse, the lowest ERA of the group was 3.84 (Bronson Arroyo, 2009), and the group overall had a 4.82 ERA. Cueto, too, has never topped 185&frac23; innings in a single big league season, his lifetime second-half ERA (4.29) is nearly a run higher than in the first half (3.38), and he has averaged a mere 5.56 innings per start after the All-Star break.



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Hudson, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andy Pettitte, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Nolasco, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wei-Yin Chen, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian Matusz, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felipe Paulino, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Smyly, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Homer Bailey, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anthony Bass, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bronson Arroyo, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Cobb, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Masterson, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edinson Volquez, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jarrod Parker, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Arrieta, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henderson Alvarez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Philip Humber, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Liriano, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jerome Williams, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Drabek, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Randall Delgado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Bauer, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Danks, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>



"It is now time …" for the Arizona Diamondbacks to wake up and promote Trevor Bauer. Yes, I know about the walks. Bauer has afforded 38 free passes in 73&frac13; innings in his 12 minor league starts between Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno this season, or 4.66 per nine, and that hints at a necessary adjustment once he reaches the majors. But doesn't every young pitcher, to varying degrees, experience an adjustment period? Putting aside the walks, Bauer's stuff is electric: He has a 2.52 ERA, 11.16 K's-per-nine ratio, .220 batting average allowed and has quality starts in three of his first four turns for Reno. Bauer will be an instant source of strikeouts once the Diamondbacks summon him and he might have it slightly easier being that he'll be breaking into a National League West division in which two of the team's four division rivals rank among the seven worst teams in terms of runs scored. He needs to get the call soon and he should get the call soon, meaning this might be your final chance to stash him.


"It is now time …" to completely buy the James McDonald breakout. McDonald's ranking this week is understandably conservative -- he's up to 33rd -- but it's time to treat him like a bona fide top-40 starter, not only today, but tomorrow, next week, next month and into September. Consider the facts: His 2.46 FIP is fourth best among qualified starters, his xFIP is 13th (3.28), he has slashed what was a 4.11 walks-per-nine innings ratio last season to 2.52 this, and he has backed that up by boosting what was a 47 percent rate of pitches within the strike zone in 2011 to 49 percent this year. McDonald's slider has been filthy this season and he continues to lean on it more: He threw it 17 percent of the time in April and generated a 20 percent swing-and-miss rate, and has thrown it 24 percent of the time in May and June and gotten 26 percent swings and misses. McDonald has a clear improvement of his overall skills, supporting his candidacy as one of 2012's breakouts.


Streamer's delight



Among streaming starter -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- options for the upcoming week, here are my picks by day:


Tuesday, June 5: Homer Bailey versus Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, June 6: Jerome Williams versus Seattle Mariners
Thursday, June 7: Mike Leake versus Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, June 8: Luke Hochevar at Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, June 9: Trevor Cahill versus Oakland Athletics
Sunday, June 10: Philip Humber versus Houston Astros
Monday, June 11: Only two pitchers less than 25 percent owned are scheduled and neither has an attractive matchup.
Tuesday, June 12: Wei-Yin Chen versus Pittsburgh Pirates


Past picks
Tuesday, May 29: Homer Bailey -- W, QS, 9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Wednesday, May 30: Anthony Bass -- 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
Thursday, May 31: No pick.
Friday, June 1: Felipe Paulino -- W, QS, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Saturday, June 2: Luke Hochevar -- 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Sunday, June 3: Trevor Cahill -- W, QS, 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Monday, June 4: Scott Feldman -- 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 3 K


Week's total: 6 GS, 3 W (50.0%), 3 QS (50.0%), 35 IP, 31 H, 20 ER, 15 BB, 23 K, 5.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Season total: 54 GS, 27 W (50.0%), 34 QS (63.0%), 338 IP, 289 H, 126 ER, 112 BB, 243 K, 3.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP


Three up



R.A. Dickey, New York Mets: I don't know what to say, other than that Dickey has clearly become a master of the knuckler. It's rare that a pitcher earns mention in "Three up" in back-to-back weeks; Dickey does thanks to a seven-hit, zero-walk, nine-strikeout shutout versus the St. Louis Cardinals this past Saturday. Check out this stat: Dickey has 38 K's (in 29&frac13; innings) in his past four starts combined, 34 of those on the knuckleball. He has limited opponents to .184/.217/.299 triple-slash rates with his knuckler in those four games, generating misses on 34 percent of swings. And to put those numbers into perspective, since 2009, all major league pitchers have afforded .253/.297/.398 rates and a 21 percent swing-and-miss rate on knuckleballs (Dickey threw 47 percent of the total). It's difficult to explain, but enjoy it.


Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles: Though hardly back to the "budding ace" form scouts predicted at the time of his major league debut, Matusz, the worst player in all of fantasy baseball in 2011, has enjoyed quite the turnaround of late. Per our Player Rater, he's the No. 30 starting pitcher the past 30 days, thanks to an active streak of four consecutive quality starts, four wins and a 2.87 ERA in his past five turns and a 4.21 ERA and 2.91 strikeouts-per-walk ratio in six starts during that 30-day stretch. Most notably, he has wins against the division-rival Tampa Bay Rays (2) and Boston Red Sox during that six-game spell, something to take note of if your primary concern about him is the level of competition within his division. Matusz's K-per-walk ratio is the one that pops out; it shows that his command is back, both to where it was during his promising spring training as well as during his 2010 second-half uptick (2.52 K/BB) in 14 starts.


Johan Santana, New York Mets: Naturally, you'd expect a pitcher fresh off a no-hitter to rise in the rankings, but this isn't entirely about the no-no. Let's sing Santana's praises some more: He has back-to-back shutouts, has quality starts in seven of his past eight games and hasn't shown one bit of trouble in this, his first season back from anterior capsule surgery. In addition, while some might fret Santana's hefty usage during his no-no -- he threw a career-high 134 pitches -- the truth is that the Mets have been meticulous with his usage otherwise. He has averaged just 96 pitches and 6&frac23; innings per start, both of those his lowest in any single year since 2003, and the Mets, understandably, are now giving him a breather this week. In addition, Santana has averaged 9.00 K's per nine innings, easily his best number in any season with the Mets, and his changeup, his signature pitch, has been electric: .143/.214/.159 triple-slash rates allowed and a 43 percent miss rate on swings. Yes, he looks healthy, and a lot closer to the Johan of old, rather than the one with hints of career decline pre-surgery.


Three down



Jake Arrieta, Baltimore Orioles: While Matusz's performance has experienced an uptick, Arrieta's, unfortunately, has trended in the opposite direction. In his past six starts he has an 0-5 record, 7.96 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, ranking him the fifth worst starting pitcher in the past 30 days per our Player Rater -- only Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Chris Volstad and Jason Marquis have been worse -- and opposing hitters have batted .313 against him. Granted, Arrieta's matchups during that time have been treacherous (TEX, TB, @WSH, BOS, @TOR, @TB), but his command has regressed, as he's averaging 3.98 walks per nine during that span, up from 2.11 in his first six turns of 2012. He remains an important part of the Orioles' future so his rotation spot might be secure a few more turns through, but in fantasy he's a no-go for now, and maybe capped as a matchups candidate for the remainder of the season.


Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox: Floyd is now 29 years old, and while he got off to a tremendous start to the season, that he has struggled mightily in the past month probably means it's time to, at this stage of his career, write him off as the ultimate "streaky" pitcher. In his past four starts, he has an 11.90 ERA and 2.08 WHIP and has allowed a whopping eight home runs, and he has done so while facing a soft portion of his schedule: @LAA, MIN, CLE, SEA. Periodic struggles are nothing new to Floyd; during his career he has monthly ERAs (5-start minimums) of 6.68 (May 2009), 6.66 (May 2006), 6.57 (April 2006), 6.49 (April 2010), 6.21 (August 2011), 5.63 (May 2010), 5.52 (April 2009) … and now 7.06 in May 2012, which represents his worst single-month ERA in any month during which he made at least five starts. This is a "ride-the-streak" pitcher, and his current streak: Cold.


Derek Holland, Texas Rangers: Derek, you shouldn't have shaved the mustache. Talk about streaky (Floyd discussion above), aggravating (topic two weeks ago) pitchers; Holland qualifies as either. In the past two weeks he has been excellent -- 7&frac13; innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 9 K's on May 25, at home, versus the Toronto Blue Jays -- and awful -- 1&frac23; innings, 8 hits, 8 runs on May 30, at home, versus the Seattle Mariners. Holland is a pitcher who relies on command, particularly that of his fastball, and it wavers from start to start without notice. Consider that in the May 25 game, he threw his fastball in the strike zone 58 percent of the time and recorded 71 percent strikes with it; in the May 30 game those numbers were 43 and 49. Arrrrrrrggggghhhhh!

 

[HacheMan]

Dexter Fowler a popular pickup, but ...

Eric Karabell
It's easy to be a tad skeptical about Colorado Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler, a Coors Field hero who has lacked "statistical competence" in road games. Five pitches into Monday's road game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, however, he provided a good sign for his owners, lacing a triple to deep right center field off Joe Saunders. It was just one at-bat, but given Fowler's recent play, it's obvious that fantasy owners are believers, as he's fantasy's most added player. Fowler didn't do much the rest of the game, but there's always Tuesday and Wednesday, two more road contests.




<offer>When it comes to extreme home/road splits, we've been through this before with Rockies hitters. It's just that right now Fowler is the only Rockies hitter with this ailment. The Rockies recently took six of seven games in a homestand, including a four-game sweep of the Houston Astros in which they averaged 10 runs per contest. Fowler played a key part in that. In fact, he has 17 hits in his past 32 at-bats, with 15 runs scored and runs in nine consecutive games. He had four multi-hit and three multi-RBI games last week and is currently ninth in baseball with a .986 OPS.</offer>

Of course, it's a bit hard to believe that Fowler, inconsistent and dropped in the batting order in April (.781 OPS), was so dominant in May (1.152 OPS). In truth, Fowler did his best work at Coors Field. In other places he hasn't, and fantasy owners should take notice and sit him in road games. Fowler brought a .178 road batting average into Monday's game with a .571 OPS, only one home run and two stolen bases. In home games, he's hitting .354 with a 1.169 OPS, seven home runs and four steals. Taking advantage of home/road splits can be an important differentiator in fantasy lineup management. Fowler should be owned in all leagues, and he's getting there, but don't completely buy into these trends and trust him regularly just yet.


Star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki are fantasy fixtures no matter the venue. Gonzalez has long feasted on pitching at Coors Field (see 2010) and been more ordinary on the road, and this season he's showing those tendencies again (.389 batting average home, 10 or his 14 home runs; .266 on the road), but I wouldn't sit him anywhere. Tulowitzki actually has better road numbers this season, a testament to his ability. Gonzalez, Tulo, Fowler and outfielder Michael Cuddyer (he's hitting just fine on the road) are the only Rockies hitters owned in more than two-thirds of ESPN standard leagues, but only Fowler is worth sitting away from home.


The Rockies are scoring 6.5 runs in their home games, quite a bit above any other team. On the road, including Monday's 4-0 win at Arizona, they're hitting .234, 53 points below their Coors Field mark. I don't buy into the theory that hitting is contagious in a lineup, though. The Rockies are hitting .287 at home with a .855 OPS, each the best in baseball. Gonzalez hit .500 on the recent homestand, with four home runs and nine RBIs. League average for home games is .256 and .735.


Fowler actually hit 41 points better on the road last season, although a .377 BABIP (.329 at home) was likely a factor. His OPS was better at Coors, but his career marks show a below-average player in other venues. It's nice that Fowler seems to be emerging, but he needs to hit, run and draw more walks on the road. Sure, his current BABIP should even out some, but those in daily fantasy leagues should consider alternatives the next two days in Arizona. Thanks to the schedule, those in weekly formats don't have to worry about this until July. The Rockies have a home series with the Los Angeles Angels this week. Next week, the Rockies have one home (Athletics) and one road (Tigers) series. The following week, it's all road games in Philadelphia and Texas, but those are nice hitting parks. The first full week of July, the Rockies are in St. Louis and Washington … and you should sit Fowler in those places if his current splits haven't changed and you have someone better than Hector Luna to activate for him.


Fowler isn't the only big league player with subpar road numbers, but many of the players in that group aren't exactly awesome at home. For example, frustrating Cameron Maybin of the San Diego Padres should be better on the road. He hasn't been. Same with Oakland's Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes and the Giants' Brandon Belt. Jimmy Rollins looks done in general and has a sub-.500 road OPS to help prove it. Fowler, however, has long tantalized fantasy owners with his ability to take walks, great speed that seldom resulted in stolen bases and, of course, the home stadium he thrives in. Own him, but continue to monitor the trends, because he can't be a reliable fantasy option producing only half the time.

 

[HacheMan]

D'Backs Boss Bites Drew
Your name is Ken Kendrick. Over 40 years ago, you began your career at IBM. Just three years later, you founded Datatel, Inc., and made enough money to move abroad and sip mai tais for the rest of your life. You didn't want to do that. You moved on from technology in the 80's, possibly because you sought new challenges. You proved wildly successful in the financial service and banking industries.



You helped bring baseball to Arizona. You're a lauded philanthropist.



By all accounts, you are a brilliant man. You create, you invent, you revolutionize. You also are extremely generous. The charities you work with rake in millions of dollars a year. But, at your core, you are just like the rest of us, aren't you, Mr. Kendrick? You love baseball. I mean, you LOVE it. Not only did you aid in the procurement of an expansion franchise in the Valley of the Sun, but you are also a trading card nerd who purchased Honus Wagner's famous 1909 T206 card once owned by Wayne Gretzky. Presently, your nonpareil collection of exotic cards is on loan to the Baseball Hall of Fame.



I will never be half as smart as you, nor 1-percent as successful. But—forgive me—I'm paid to ask these questions: What in the hell did you believe you were accomplishing on Tuesday?



On some radio show called "Big Guy on Sports," Kendrick had this to say about rehabbing shortstop Stephen Drew:



"I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now. And, frankly, I for one am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say I think Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary. All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity, and, frankly, we have our concerns."



Mr. Kendrick wasn't done. He also decided to take a shot at franchise cornerstone Justin Upton, calling him an "enigma" and saying he hasn't played like the player Arizona expects. "It's time for him to be a consistent performer," Kendrick said.



Look: If I were in Kendrick's position, controlling my anger would be the most difficult aspect of my job. You're the managing general partner of the Diamondbacks, you've been with them since inception and in some ways you treat them like your child. That's human nature. But blasting Drew—who very well may be milking his rehabilitation either to create leverage for an extension, or, as Kendrick suggests, to be 100% healthy when he inevitably hits free agency over the winter—is a fool's errand.



If your goal was to tarnish Drew's reputation, you're too late. J.D. didn't do his brother any favors in establishing the family name as a paragon of virtue in baseball circles. If your goal was to get Drew to return before his own timeline, you just detonated any chance of it.



Drew and the Diamondbacks have a $10 million mutual option for 2013 that has less chance of exercising than Bartolo Colon on an off day. Divorce may have been inevitable, but the guise of amicability is just good business. You know that, Mr. Kendrick. You’ve been too successful for too long.



As for Upton, I'm speechless. In cases like this, Mr. Kendrick, honesty isn't the best policy. Silence is.



Red Sox pull plug on Bard experiment... for now



Boston may have outsmarted themselves over the offseason when they traded several assets—Josh Reddick, a pair of prospects, Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland—to acquire Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) and Mark Melancon to replace Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard in the eighth and ninth innings.



As we now know, Bailey hasn't yet pitched for the BoSox, Melancon was a disaster before his banishment to the minors, and Bard was a glorified batting practice coach in the rotation until he was mercifully sent to Triple-A on Tuesday.



After one of the season's ugliest starts on Sunday against the Blue Jays—five runs on six walks, one hit and two HBP in just 1 2/3 innings—Bard was left with a 5.24 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and more walks than strikeouts (37 to 34).



Papelbon's exit was inevitable. But the decisions that followed may end up being the margin between Boston playing in October or reading the local media's annual offseason witch-hunt to locate the perpetrator(s) of another lost season (watch your back, Bobby V!).



Apparently, Bard will continue to work as a starter in the minors as the Red Sox refuse to abandon plans for him to be a future cog in the rotation. For now. Who knows.



In the interim, mixed leaguers would be wise to cut bait. AL-only owners should hang on to Bard unless playing in a shallow format and in need of a bench spot.





Feeling a Draft?



Despite the fact that you're reading this column, there is approximately a 99.3% chance that you didn't give a rip about Rounds 2-10 of MLB's draft, conducted Tuesday.



You're out of luck, because I watched hours of Day Two coverage online. I've seen so much Jonathan Mayo over the past 48 hours that I began hallucinating yesterday afternoon that he was one of those embryos pulled out of The Matrix, like Keanu Reeves. Later in the day, as Mayo continued to espouse knowledge about high schoolers in Texas that not even those children's parents knew about, I started to think he looked and acted like a Pre-Cog from Minority Report. Just like Samantha Morton's Agatha, Mayo was bald, omniscient and seemingly trapped in a hell he couldn't escape.



The Astros kicked off Tuesday's festivities by taking University of Florida shortstop Nolan Fontana at No. 61 overall.



Other picks of note:



The Twins spent most of the day trying to convince the industry that they really, really—no seriously, guys!—like power arms now. They kicked off the paradigm shift with Northwestern State's Mason Melotakis at No. 63 and Rice's J.T. Chargois at No. 72.



Cincinnati snatched Baseball America's top available prospect with the 78^th pick, tabbing prep shortstop Tanner Rahier (who projects at the hot corner at the next level). He's going to be extremely difficult to sign, but if the Reds can pull it off, they just landed a nice power-hitting third base prospect.



The Red Sox caught falling high school right-handed pitcher Ty Buttrey at No. 151. The 6-6, 210 pounder was ranked as the 25^th best high school baseball recruit by ESPN and was projected as a possible supplemental first-round pick. Boston will have to pony up to keep him from his commitment to Arkansas.



In my favorite story of the day, the Dodgers took wacky Cuban defector Onelki Garcia, a 22-year-old left-handed pitcher, at No. 113. Garcia's long, strange journey has taken him from innocent defector to a dude reportedly involved in doctoring papers and demanding a $7 million bonus. He made the mistake of moving to the United States too early, apparently. Nebulous machinations had him ruled eligible and then ineligible for the 2011 draft. Those are just bullet points from several stories I read yesterday. Frankly, I don't know who to trust.



Word to the wise, Onelki: You're going to have to take a zero off your asking price or take your act overseas.





Nobody Cares Quick Hits: Major League Baseball announced that it would allow players to use social media outlets during the All-Star Game; unfortunately, Jose Canseco retired long ago, depriving hardball fans the privilege of a "I complete you all and slap a hater" tweet after he whiffed against Stephen Strasburg.



National League Quick Hits: "I'm not right," Jamie Garcia said after allowing six runs over just two innings against the Astros. Skipped in the rotation last week due to elbow soreness, Garcia may be headed to the disabled list, despite claiming his pain is gone ... Jason Bay (rib) expects to be activated from the disabled list on Wednesday … The Pirates promoted Alex Presley from Triple-A Indianapolis after he hit .277 with five homers, 14 RBI, four stolen bases and a 1.015 OPS in 18 games. Those numbers are obviously a fluke, but the young outfielder is worth a look to all you NL-only owners ... Tim Hudson notched his 13th career shutout in holding the Marlins to five hits and three walks while striking out three ... Carlos Quentin smacked two homers in San Diego's victory over the Giants and is now is hitting a ludicrous .522/.577/1.348 with five homers and nine RBI in six games since returning from the DL ... Huston Street returned from the disabled list and earned a victory with a scoreless ninth versus the Giants ... The Rockies and Dodgers have talked to the Nationals about starter John Lannan, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com ... The Padres are considering moving Andrew Cashner into the rotation, but a change isn't imminent ... Javy Guerra is expected to miss 4-6 weeks following right knee surgery.



American League Quick Hits: The Tigers are considering making Quintin Berry their regular left fielder once Austin Jackson (abdomen) comes off the disabled list. As long as he is getting at-bats, Berry’s Mach 7 speed makes him relevant in most fantasy formats ... Dustin Pedroia (thumb) returned to Boston's lineup after missing six games ... Alex Avila missed two games due to right hamstring tightness and left Tuesday's game in the sixth inning after aggravating the same injury ... Joe Mauer (thumb) missed a second straight game, but the Twins hope he'll be back on Friday ... Colby Rasmus went 5-for-5 with a homer in a victory over the White Sox ... Paul Konerko had a minor procedure on his left wrist but expects to play on Wednesday ... Mark Trumbo went 4-for-4 with a pair of homers and four RBI against the Mariners ... Francisco Liriano spun six innings of one-run ball against the Royals. In two starts since returning to the rotation, Frankie has allowed just one run over 12 innings to go with a 17/3 K/BB rate ... Rangers skipper Ron Washington said Roy Oswalt will not replace Scott Feldman in the rotation on Saturday ... Felix Hernandez (back) hopes to return to the rotation Sunday, but the Mariners think next Tuesday is more realistic ... The Angels summoned Hank Conger from Triple-A to replace Bobby Wilson (concussion) on the active roster. Snatch up Conger immediately in AL-only leagues ... The Blue Jays have expressed interest in acquiring Matt Garza from the Cubs, reports Rosenthal ... Desmond Jennings (left knee) and Carlos Santana (concussion) were activated from the DL on Tuesday.

 

[HacheMan]

Confounding the Numbers
There are many tough aspects about finding saves and being a statistically-oriented analyst.



For one, there isn't actually any statistical link between good rates and the closer role, as Derek Carty has found in the past. It's true -- there isn't a correlation between strikeout rates or walk rates or ground-ball rates and taking the closer job. We talk about those rates in this column because they are the backbone of a good pitcher -- pitchers can largely only control strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates and little else. But even good pitchers behind bad closers remain setup men.



There are other ideas that don't hold statistical water. Good closers come from bad teams, and good teams barely produce more save opportunities than bad teams. And no matter how good your lefty reliever is, he's about half as likely to become a closer as he should be. Managers don't seem to prefer the lefty closer.



So we can barely use the skills of the player or the quality of the team to determine how valuable a reliever will be… what do we do?



Well, we try to find the best pitchers, because quality has a way of rising, and because strikeouts are an actual category -- get a guy with a good strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and a high ground-ball rate, and he's likely to help you in relevant roto categories (strikeouts, WHIP, ERA) even if he doesn't close.



Then, we have to look at roles. When a player is being used is more important, sometimes, than how good the player is. Ernesto Frieri was just Ernesto Frieri in San Diego, but when he got to Los Angeles and was used in high leverage situations, that's when we knew he was headed for saves as The Closer. He always had the strikeout rate skill, but the role change was important.



Hopefully that provided the reasoning behind some of the choices made in this column. And we'll name the tiers in honor of the good closers from bad teams that can return so much value on your smaller investment, just for fun.



Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Eric Gagne" Tier.)



Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers



In 2003, Eric Gagne saved 55 games in a row for the Dodgers. He was lights out, with velocity and break and goggles to boot. Dude was nasty. The team won 85 games, which isn't crappy, but they didn't make the postseason either. Points to the lowered value of the position a little, but that's 'real' baseball. In fantasy baseball, Gagne that season was saves gold, but 2002 was really his fantasy gold season. All he'd done before 2002 was rack up a 4.5+ ERA as a starter, so he was really cheap going into that great season.



Jonathan Papelbon blew a save this week, and he is showing the worst swinging strike rate of his career. That's where the negatives end. He's still got a double-digit strikeout rate and a minuscule walk rate. He's gotten a little unlucky on home runs so far -- he's already given up as many homers (three) as he did all year last year -- and his velocity is at a career-low, but he'll be fine. There should be an added entry in our list of requirements for closers -- salary. Like Heath Bell in Miami, Papelbon will get a year-long leash if things get hairy. And they aren't.



Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Randy Myers" Tier.)



Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants



In 1993, the Cubs finished 13 games out of the postseason and their closer racked up 53 saves. Another remarkable thing about those 53 saves is that they make up the most ever by a lefty closer. Randy Myers, Billy Wagner, John Franco… and your list of dominant lefty closers starts to dry up.



Joel Hanrahan got his first Kimbrel of the year, with three strikeouts and no baserunners Tuesday night. Both his strikeout and walk rates are up, and though that's not great on both counts, it's nice to see The Hammer use his gas to get whiffs this year. The 2010 version was a little more valuable than the 2011 version, after all -- those extra 39 strikeouts go a long way.



Kenley Jansen didn't get a Kimbrel Tuesday night -- two strikeouts and one hit -- but he's due for some in the future. His walk rate is much better this year. As a former catcher he didn't have the long track record of poor control that Javy Guerra (now on the DL after surprise knee surgery) showed. Even if the control takes a step back, he can be Carlos-Marmol-like with that strikeout rate. (Old Carlos Marmol, not the current version.)



Yes, Aroldis Chapman has been excellent and has whiteout stuff. But, going into this season, a source in the Reds organization felt he'd never close because he didn't like warming up on consecutive days. Has so much changed in the last two months? Maybe. It is worth noting that Sean Marshall has gotten a save since he was removed from the role, and it was because Chapman had pitched too often recently. So, the Cuban is excellent and offers strikeout and ratio value beyond his saves, but he also has a tiny bit of risk attached to his name.



It looked like Santiago Casilla might be slipping, since Sergio Romo saved a game for him, but it's mostly about his bruised knee. The team is acting like Casilla is still their closer and he just needs a day or two to rest. That's how his fantasy teams should act, too.



Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Bryan Harvey" Tier.)



Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox

Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees

Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers



In 1993, the Marlins won 64 games. Their closer saved 45 of them! Bryan Harvey was a decent closer with a double-digit strikeout rate, but those early Marlins were not yet good. He's the champion, the patron saint of a good closer on a bad team, though. Even if you might expect a handful less saves from a bad team, you can always remember that 45 saves is possible even on a bad team. It's happened before.



Huston Street is back from his lat injury. We slowly moved him up, tier by tier, because he looked healthy to begin the year and we thought maybe he'd pitch more than 50 innings for once. Boom. Then he went down. And we can't even pretend that his seasonal injury is behind him -- injuries don't work that way. So Street might look out of place in this tier with his good ratios, but we have to remember that health is a skill. One that he doesn't necessarily have in spades.



He didn't have a good day -- Jim Johnson gave up two runs to blow the save against Boston Tuesday -- but he hung in there and got the win. It was the rare home run allowed for the sinkerballer, and it doesn't mean much for now. Pedro Strop has more strikeout punch, but also less control, so he's a holds guy for now.



Chris Perez. He's sort of one-man proof that strikeout and walk rates don't always predict the closer role situation. Vinnie Pestano is still striking out more batters than Perez, and for the second straight year he's had better peripherals than his closer, but he's still the setup man. Let's give Perez some credit -- he's got his strikeout and walk rate to about average for a closer, and he's even improved his ground-ball rate (though it's still bad). He's been better this year, and there are still reasons to be skeptical. After 252 innings of a walk rate over four (which is bad), he's got his walk rate under three this year (which is good), but that's in 22-plus innings. He also hasn't given up a home run this year on 26 fly balls. Across the league, it's a fact that 10% of home runs leave the yard. If he regresses on the home runs and the walks at the same time, it might not take a long time to make a change at the position. It's also important to point out that he's an excellent pitcher to make it to the big leagues, but when judged against the other 20 best relievers in the game, a relatively normal 93 mph fastball and a slider can be seen as a recipe for platoon splits (that's just the nature of the movement of a slider), and Perez walks almost twice as many lefties as righties. For now, though, he's proven himself to be definitely okay.



Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Greg Aquino" Tier.)



Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox



The 2004 Diamondbacks had a bad bullpen. They also only won 51 games. But Greg Aquino managed 16 of the team's 30 saves with the best numbers of his life… on the surface. His 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP were hiding some poor ratios, though, thanks to some batted ball luck and a short 35 1/3 innings of exposure. He would soon cede the job to a flashy kid named Jose Valverde, but in 2004, Aquino was the guy that got his owners saves for cheap. Sometimes you have feel a little dirty on the way to a win.



Should Brett Myers be rated higher? After all, he's a good closer on a bad team, and there's very little competition for saves in his pen. On the other hand, his contract has a vesting option that depends on games finished, and the Astros don't really have use for a multi-million dollar closer right now. They'll be highly motivated to move him -- think Francisco Rodriguez and the Mets.



Frank Francisco technically blew a save Tuesday night, but it was a mess of Tim Byrdak's making, and it was in the eighth inning. More importantly, he didn't walk anyone, which makes six straight appearances without a walk. He's back on track, and Bobby Parnell is no great threat to his job. In some ways Frankie Frank even has better ratios than Jonathan Broxton, who has only struck out 14 in 22 2/3 innings, and didn't whiff a guy Tuesday night either. At least he's not walking guys…


Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.<!--RW-->

Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Tom Buskey" Tier.)

Ernesto Frieri (first chair), Scott Downs (second chair), Jordan Walden (third chair), Los Angeles Angels
Brian Fuentes (first chair), Ryan Cook (second chair), Sean Doolittle (third chair), Oakland Athletics
Tom Wilhelmsen (first chair), Stephen Pryor (second chair), Brandon League (third chair), Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard (first chair), Sean Burnett (second chair), Washington Nationals
Casey Janssen (first chair), Francisco Cordero (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Shawn Camp (first chair), James Russell (second chair), Casey Coleman (third chair), Chicago Cubs



In 1979, the Blue Jays were two years old. Their closer, Tom Buskey, led the team with seven saves. The team only managed 11 saves on the year. Buskey was bad, too: Even though his ERA was good, eh only struck out five batters per nine, and had average control. This was one of those rare cases where a bad team had a bad bullpen and didn't give them many chances. The 2012 Cubs should still manage better, though.



Ernesto Frieri only brings it at 93 MPH, but he's got a little funk in that delivery, and the fastball has a ton of movement. That's how you strike out double-digit dudes per nine over your career, and it's also how you have control problems from time to time. Right now, he's in the lead for the saves going forward -- not because Scott Downs has blown up, or even because his manager gave him the role, but because lefty closers are not a manager's friend. In the free agency era, lefties have been closers about half as much as they 'should have been' according to how many lefties there are in the league. A few more lights-out innings from Frieri, and his role will be affirmed in public.



Brian Fuentes has been showing his mediocre numbers (other than walk rate, which has been excellent this year) for a while now, and blown a few saves. The speculation has begun. As a lefty, maybe he's not the best fit for the role, but then that dings recent callup (and former first baseman) Sean Doolittle and his candidacy for the role. Ryan Cook is the guy with the flashy ERA and WHIP, and he has a nice swinging strike rate. The walk rate is a little high to demand a move, though -- he's walking over five per nine and getting a little lucky to have that ERA. He also had control problems in the minor leagues. If you're desperate for saves, Cook is an own, but Doolittle (and his 94-96 mph gas) is a watch.



Tom Wilhelmsen is the closer in Seattle. So much so that his manager is using him for multiple-inning saves. He has a great story too -- he dropped out of baseball to bartend and enjoy his twenties before coming back to Seattle camp and showing his old velocity and hammer curve and making the team. It's important to mention his control problems -- he's had them on and off in his career and they always threaten to return. If they do, new callup Stephen Pryor might get the call. He struck out Paul Konerko with tow on and two out in the seventh inning in his debut -- with a 100-mph fastball. He's also had control problems off and on, but his strikeout rates have been enormous and he's definitely interesting. For now, though, he's being used in the seventh as much as the eighth, so it's hard to say what he is to the team.


Tyler Clippard and Casey Janssen continue to keep the seat warm for their injured closers. Read more on their situations below.



And the worst bullpen in baseball, the one that inspired me to start a mini-series investigating saves in baseball. Bad teams do indeed create save chances, but a bullpen as putrid as the one the Cubs own may not take advantage of them, and might not produce a single mixed-league closer this year. James Russel is barely a good LOOGY if judged by his rates, so he's not listed first here despite earning some saves. Shawn Camp is not exciting, but there are two things he's done his whole career: limit the walks and get ground balls. The ground balls aren't quite there yet this year, but the other 480 or so innings with a great ground-ball deserve more weight. He's no Jim Johnson either -- he'll get some strikeouts -- so Camp is the one to own here. Casey Coleman deserves a mention, but doesn't really have proven ability in any of the three main facets of pitching.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

Injuries



Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth (elbow), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen (elbow), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays



Andrew Bailey is playing catch at 90 feet but hasn't thrown off a mound. The All-Star break is still the goal. Drew Storen says he expects to start throwing off a mound in the next couple of weeks, and the All-Star break is his goal, too. Kyle Farnsworth says he's two weeks away. Sergio Santos threw off a mound! He could be two weeks away, suddenly.



The Deposed



Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnatti Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs



Is Brian Fuentes next? And does Scott Downs deserve to go here if the Angels go with Ernesto Frieri full-time?

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

The Steals Department

We've talked about Ben Revere and Juan Pierre and Michael Brantley here in the past, but it's worth pointing out that they are stealing more bases recently. We've even talked about Jarrod Dyson before, but now it's time to consider him in mixed leagues. Well, as a short-term add. Because Dyson is making a ton of contact when judged by swinging strike rate, and he's one of the fastest three players in baseball. If you'd rather get ahead of the crowd by a move or two, though, Lorenzo Cain could begin his rehab assignment within the next week, and he's a better overall player once you factor in his power. Cain could still go for five home runs and 15 stolen bases in a half-season if his hip is okay.



We talked about the Padres middle infield last week, and it's looking like Everth Cabrera is the pick. They might both hit for poor batting averages, but Alexi Amarista is struggling right now. With the injuries in Los Angeles, there's another middle-infielder callup that might be interesting to deep leaguers -- Elian Herrera. He's playing like he wants to stay, and he has legit speed, but there are a few flaws in his game that kept him in the minor leagues for six years -- he trikes out a little too much and has no power. He doesn't always show good patience either. But right now he's walking and stealing bases, and that's more important than anything for deep league owners looking for speed. Even if he hits .250 from here on out, he's going to be valuable if he keeps playing.

 

[HacheMan]

Buying low on Eric Hosmer

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It took 40 of his team's games, but in his (and the Kansas City Royals') past 14 contests, Eric Hosmer is a .353 hitter (18-for-51) with two home runs and 10 RBIs. Even better: He has chipped in three stolen bases during that time.

Hosmer, despite all that, still ranks just 23rd among first basemen for the season on our Player Rater. Yes, his slow, first-40-Royals-games start to the season was that bad: Remember that on the morning of May 21, he found himself batting .172/.238/.311, with five home runs and 19 RBIs in 38 games.


Hosmer does, however, rank seventh at his position if you sort our Player Rater by the past 15 days. And, sticking with the theme of the week, it is now time to declare that version of Hosmer -- the past-15-days one -- the real one.


Now, touting Hosmer as a currently underrated player, or a buy-low candidate, might not seem especially bold. We did, after all, rank him our No. 8 first baseman during the preseason, projected him for a .289 batting average, 20 homers and 89 RBIs, and in the "Hit Parade" rankings he has never dropped lower than 54th. But the perception of Hosmer today, accounting for his year-to-date performance, might have him priced considerably beneath that No. 7-8 value point.


That is why it is now time to pounce.


Simply put, consider this: In order for Hosmer to meet our preseason projection, from today forward, he needs to play in 101 of 108 remaining Royals games, bat .324 (with .364 on-base and .478 slugging percentages), hit 13 home runs, drive in 56 runs, steal seven bases and score 59 runs. With the exception of perhaps the batting average, do any of those numbers seem unrealistic?

In his final 101 games of 2011, to compare, Hosmer batted .290 (with .334 on-base and .452 slugging percentages), hit 14 homers, drove in 60 runs, stole nine bases and scored 53 runs. In other words, he needs to effectively match his level of production from June 5, 2011, through season's end the rest of the way, while getting 14 more hits -- "lucky bounces," perhaps.


"Lucky" might characterize a lot of what has changed in Hosmer's game. Consider that, during his first 37 games of the season (in 40 Royals games), his BABIP was .165. In his past 14 contests, meanwhile, his BABIP is .381, despite the fact that he has a lower well-hit average (.157) during the latter than the former (.199) time span. (Well-hit average, to remind you, measures the percentage of a player's at-bats -- not plate appearances, at-bats, that resulted in hard contact.)


Putting Hosmer's full season into context, he has the fourth-lowest BABIP among qualified hitters (.219), despite a .188 well-hit average that ranks 107th out of those 164 hitters (putting him in the 35th percentile). One statistic, in particular, tells the story of his season: He has a .500 BABIP when he makes hard contact, eighth-worst in the majors, and he has seen only 43 percent of pitches in the strike zone, 13th-worst in the majors.


To explain the former, an increased number of defenses have employed a shift against Hosmer, an odd strategy considering his skill set. When he has put the ball in play this season, 31 percent of the time he pulled it, and 33 percent of the time he hit it to the opposite field. That has even held up of late: He has pulled 27 percent of balls in play and hit 30 percent to the opposite field in his past 14 contests. Without having seen every one of his at-bats -- I admit I have not -- I'd wonder whether opposing defenses are taking note and shifting less often. At the very least, the numbers say that they shouldn't employ the shift.


To examine the latter, Hosmer appears to have compensated for a growing tendency for pitchers to be more conservative working him. The rate that pitchers throw him pitches in the zone has scarcely changed between his first 37 and past 14 games -- 0.2 percent higher during the latter (42.8-42.6) -- but he's being more aggressive with non-strikes, swinging at them 36 percent of the time (up from 30 percent during his first 37 contests) and managing .304/.407/.391 triple-slash rates against them (.122/.306/.204 during his first 37). Normally that'd signal erosion of a player's plate discipline, but in Hosmer's case, it's promising to see him making those adjustments, and that he has 9.6 percent walk and 14.6 percent strikeout rates during his professional career helps ease those concerns, signaling that when he swings at a bad pitch, he's confident that he can hit it hard.


Sum it up and Hosmer is well worth acquiring, even to the point that he might be a .300 hitter with 15-20 homer power from today forward. That's a top-eight fantasy first baseman, even during a year and at a position that sports Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Adrian Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Teixeira. After those eight -- and arguably comparable with Encarnacion or Teixeira -- there isn't another first baseman I'd rather own.


Sticking with the week's theme, let's make some more bold, "it is now time" predictions for hitters.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Upton, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Uggla, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nelson Cruz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rodriguez, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric Hosmer, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Corey Hart, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Santana, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Napoli, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Trout, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> B.J. Upton, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kelly Johnson, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Young, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Desmond Jennings, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Trumbo, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Hardy, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Stubbs, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Joyce, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Morse, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cameron Maybin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kevin Youkilis, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Altuve, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alejandro De Aza, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Reddick, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bryce Harper, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Gardner, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Allen Craig, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jesus Montero, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neil Walker, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ichiro Suzuki, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Moustakas, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam LaRoche, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dexter Fowler, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Morneau, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Aviles, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Desmond, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Ackley, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jed Lowrie, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Ruiz, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Seager, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gordon Beckham, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfonso Soriano, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Pena, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Goldschmidt, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dayan Viciedo, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Quentin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Espinosa, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Francoeur, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Howard Kendrick, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Rasmus, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Davis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Hill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rios, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kendrys Morales, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




"It is now time…" to take Gordon Beckham seriously as a fantasy option. Back-to-back seasons (2010-11) of horrendous production might have caused people to give up on Beckham, and even during his recent hot spell he has hardly fully restored what was once top-five-at-his-position fantasy upside, but he's making some key adjustments that could at least keep him in every lineup the remainder of the year. Still available in more than 50 percent of ESPN leagues, Beckham has batted .288 with six home runs in his past 18 games, fueled by an 87.5 percent contact rate during that time that easily exceeds the 79.7 percent rate he had from 2009-11. He's swinging and missing less often -- 14 percent rate in his past 18 games, compared to 22 percent during his career -- and has five hits and only six swings and misses on 34 swings against pitches measured at 93 mph or higher in his past 18. Small sample, yes, but those things hint at an adjustment that could keep him more stable in the batting-average category than he showed in either 2010 or 2011. His ranking shows the necessary caution, but that he has cracked the Top 125 this week demonstrates that he belongs in any lineup … for now.


"It is now time…" to call Colby Rasmus' recent hot spell a mirage and declare this a perfect time to sell. During his past 14 games, Rasmus is a .351/.403/.702 hitter with four home runs, 10 RBIs and two stolen bases, and that he's 25 years old and has long been projected to be a future fantasy stud might have his owners wondering whether he has finally arrived. I say no, he hasn't. Not yet. Take a look at Rasmus' schedule during that hot spell: Three games at Rangers Ballpark (May 25-27), games against starters in funks like Tommy Hunter (May 28), Jake Arrieta (May 29), Daniel Bard (June 3) and Philip Humber (June 5). Rasmus also hasn't shown substantial improvement this season, neither the full year nor in his past 14 contests, in the weakest area of his game: He's a .205/.205/.409 hitter against breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders) this season, although he did hit a home run off a Humber slider on Tuesday. That homer is a start, but Rasmus has work to do. I think this is more likely a hot spell and a sell-high opportunity for his owners than it is a sign of him having arrived.


"It is now time…" to trade for Austin Jackson. It's rare that I endorse a trade for a currently disabled player, but in Jackson's case, this might be the one time you could pounce. The abdominal injury he suffered probably has spawned some questions in his owners, and the performance of Quintin Berry during his absence might have Jackson's owners wondering how quickly the Detroit Tigers will get him back into the lineup. The most common mistake a Jackson owner could make: thinking he's a mere speedster, useless in the other categories. He's not: His 18.2 percent K and 12.6 percent walk rates represent, by far, career bests, and they support his candidacy as a .300-plus hitter in his remaining healthy games. One month from now, with some luck in the health department, Jackson should have long since reclaimed his center field and leadoff role. And once he has, it'll be too late to have landed him at a possible discount.


"It is now time…" to get Jay Bruce, who might be the most unfairly ranked player in this week's column. There's a simple reason Bruce ranks but 30th this week: He's a .158 hitter with two home runs and 24 strikeouts in 57 at-bats in his past 18 games, underscoring his tendency to be a wildly streaky slugger. Take his statistics from this date forward last season, too, and you might have concerns: He was a .235 hitter with 15 homers in his final 100 games, after .290-17 in 57 games before it. There's no better time to acquire one of the game's elite than during his cold spells, however, and Bruce, now 25 years old, continues to show the kinds of improvement that make him one of the best up-and-coming sluggers in baseball. Consider that he has his well-hit average in each of the past three seasons, reaching a career-best .241 thus far (that number 24th among qualified hitters), he has lowered his ground-ball rate accordingly and he has shaved a percent off his swing-and-miss rate in each of the past two seasons. Bruce is merely in a funk, understandable for a player who strikes out nearly once every four at-bats, but if you can acquire him on the cheap now, you might land yourself a steal.


Three up



Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals: This dude can hit … at least when he's healthy. In four games since returning from the disabled list, Craig is 5-for-16 (.313 AVG) with a double and a home run, giving him a .358 batting average, six doubles and six homers in 17 games for the season, and he has split his games evenly between first base (2 starts) and right field (2). The Cardinals clearly regard him as an integral part of their offense, having batted him between second and fifth since his activation and started him against both right- and left-handers. Craig has managed .302/.353/.541 lifetime triple-slash rates with 21 homers and 80 RBIs in 136 games, numbers that might vault him into the top 50 on this list if not for his health risk. But that risk is legitimate: He has made four trips to the disabled list in 16 months, including for groin, knee and hamstring issues.


Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies: Colleague Eric Karabell recently took an in-depth look at Fowler's hot streak, which is well worth the read, and there is no better summation for how productive Fowler has been than that he currently ranks 12th in the majors in OPS (.961). As Karabell notes, however, Fowler's splits are substantial and disconcerting. Fowler is an incomplete player, so say his .170/.254/.321 road rates, but at least they underscore him as a brilliant matchups play when the Rockies are at home. He has historically been a better hitter at Coors: Last season was the only one during which he was a productive road performer (.286/.367/.415), but even in 2011, he had a higher OPS at Coors (.811) than on the road (.782). Appreciate him for what he is, but know what he is.


Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: I cannot begin a rational discussion of Morneau's value without first dishing out the caveat, "He will break your heart." He is not the kind of player in whom you can sink a hefty long-term investment; his health history, which includes multiple concussions and four DL stints since 2010, make him a risk to be lost for an extended period -- if not the season or his career -- at any moment. Morneau also still sports a second-half career OPS (.786) more than 100 points lower than during the first half (.893), so there's little doubt that you should trade him the moment you get an offer pricing him anywhere significantly higher than his "Hit Parade" rank. But why not appreciate his contributions today, if you have him? He's a mere .230 hitter in 19 games since his return from the DL, yes, but during that time he has six homers and 20 RBIs.


Three down



Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves: This isn't entirely about his .172 batting average or his 15 strikeouts in 58 at-bats during his past 14 games. It's mostly about those stats coinciding with the day he left a game early with blurred vision, May 14, representing the first day we heard reports of vision problems. Freeman, granted, has two multi-hit games out of four plus a .278 batting average and a home run since receiving prescription goggles to correct the problem, but for the foreseeable future he's a player whose performance needs be closely monitored. He's got top-10 fantasy first baseman potential when healthy, but as that's arguably the deepest offensive position in the game, any question about a first baseman's long-term outlook has to suppress his ranking. Monitor him closely.


Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves: His three-hit game on Tuesday was his first multi-hit contest in his past 22; he is a .221 hitter (17-for-77) with one home run and 23 strikeouts total during that span. Considering how poor his 2011, Heyward's owners are understandably concerned, having difficulty deciding whether this is a mere short-term slump or a return to the awful hitter he was last season. In defense of it being a short-term slump: He has a 23.9 percent strikeout rate and 32 percent chase rate this season, both of those significantly higher than his numbers in either category in 2010-11, painting the picture of a swing-for-the-fences, streaky slugger. Such prototypes tend to endure slumps comparable to this. But to hint at 2011 fears: Heyward's ground-ball rate has risen 8 percent during his 22-game slump, going from 35 to 43 percent, though the 43 is still a substantial improvement upon his 53 percent in 2011. Still, he has been frustrating to own of late, and there's reason to lower long-term expectations accordingly.


Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners: His batting average is in the midst of a three-year slide, his .256 mark to date representing a career worst, and don't be too quick to proclaim him "unlucky" thanks to his .266 BABIP. Remember, one of Ichiro's strengths during his heyday was his ability to hit non-strikes: A .283 hitter on those from 2009-10, Ichiro batted .197 against them in 2011, .247 so far this year and .175 since May 1 (in 46 plate appearances). He also sports another familiar poor trait from 2011, in recent weeks: Ichiro is a .227 hitter against fastballs clocked 93 mph or higher since May 1 (24 PAs), similarly poor to his .196 mark of 2011 and both substantially beneath his .333 mark of 2009. Ichiro, now 38 years old, looks like a player in the waning years of his career, and while he might be more .275 than .250 hitter, that still wouldn't be enough to vault him back into the top 50 hitters.


New position eligibility



The following players have become eligible at new positions -- it's 10 games to qualify at a new spot -- in ESPN standard leagues during the past week: Allen Craig (1B), Taylor Green (1B), Corey Hart (1B), Orlando Hudson (3B), Stephen Lombardozzi (OF), Andy Parrino (2B), Omar Vizquel (2B).


Nearing new position eligibility



The following players are on track to earn new eligibility in the coming weeks: Tyler Colvin (9 games played at 1B), Greg Dobbs (9 games played at 1B), Matt Downs (8 games played at 1B), Eduardo Escobar (9 games played at 3B), Adrian Gonzalez (9 games played at OF), Josh Harrison (9 games played at SS), Elian Herrera (8 games played at 3B), Eric Hinske (8 games played at 1B), Maicer Izturis (9 games played at SS), Elliot Johnson (9 games played at 2B), Buster Posey (8 games played at 1B), Steve Tolleson (9 games played at 3B), Mark Trumbo (8 games played at 3B), Kevin Youkilis (8 games played at 1B).

 

[HacheMan]

Can Mark Trumbo maintain BA, HR rate?

Eric Karabell

It seemed like an innocent tweet I sent around midnight ET Tuesday: "Wow, Trumbo goes yard again, second of night. He'll lose 50 batting average points eventually, but he'll hit 30 homers, too …"





Some of you know how it is when you're recklessly tweeting, saying things you might not mean, spur-of-the-moment utterances. But that was not the case here. Mark Trumbo, the Los Angeles Angels slugger, is owned in every fantasy league, and after his 4-for-4 performance with a pair of blasts Tuesday, he enters Wednesday a cool 26th on the ESPN Player Rater, with the expected power but also an unexpected .337 batting average.

<offer>So what about my tweet, so rich in responses as it was? Now with the benefit of a good night's sleep and a little research, is it really possible that Trumbo, who was on so many bust lists entering 2012 (including mine), will hit 30 home runs and bat a cool .287? Frankly, if there was anything I could have changed about the tweet, I would have put 75 batting average points instead of 50. How can this guy even hit .287?</offer>


Trumbo certainly showed off the power his rookie season, hitting 29 home runs and 31 doubles, but his miserable plate discipline limited him to a .254 batting average. His on-base percentage was a ghastly .291, and we made fun of that and highlighted it as a reason for major regression. The Angels, as you might have heard, signed a certain future Hall of Fame first baseman and got Kendrys Morales back to be the designated hitter, so Trumbo was a man without a position. He played sporadically in April, a square peg in a round hole at third base, but he did hit. Fantasy owners whined, "This guy needs to play! He has 30-homer power!" And we, the statistical/fantasy community, reminded everyone that this guy is a one-trick power pony with many flaws. He drew just 25 walks and fanned 120 times last season!


Ah, but people can and sometimes do change. While most hitters are what they are, the 26-year-old Trumbo has made necessary, impressive adjustments, and I admit it took me time to buy in. I don't see a .337 batting average by any means, and even .287 seems generous, but how about 35 home runs and, from here on out, months with a .260-.270 batting average? Trumbo already has 12 home runs. He leads the Albert Pujols Angels (among qualifiers) in batting average, home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage and hits! And he's only fourth in at-bats. Trumbo is on pace for 34 home runs, 88 RBIs and 11 stolen bases. I'm taking the over on the power. Trumbo played basically half of April (46 at-bats). In May, he hit .367 with seven home runs.


Trumbo isn't exactly Joey Votto when it comes to the walks, but is on pace for 37 of them. That's improvement. Trumbo's 6.8 walk percentage rate isn't special, but it beats his 2011 mark (4.4). He's still striking out aplenty, but we expect that from most power hitters. One thing working against keeping his batting average this high is a .384 BABIP, especially since he's a fly ball hitter. That said, his home run rate is sustainable, and he's also hitting quite a few more line drives.

Trumbo isn't seeing more pitches than he did last year, when his swing rate was among the league leaders, but now he's laying off some of the obvious non-strikes he missed in 2011. Trumbo isn't going to draw a ton of walks, and he'll still strike out, but he's swinging at better pitches and driving them very far. That's clearly progress, and it seems sustainable to me.


So what should I have tweeted about Trumbo's power and batting average? Well, this is a legitimate power hitter who should reach 35 home runs. He pulls most of his homers, but as long as he hacks at the pitches he knows he can drive, that's great. Trumbo's RBI total is dependent on others around him; leadoff monster Mike Trout is your AL Rookie of the Year and is capable of sustaining a .370 OBP. Perhaps Alberto Callaspo or Erick Aybar can help out the top of the lineup and get on base. Pujols will get on base, but he's also likely to knock in some of the runs being left for Trumbo and Morales. I'm saying 35 homers, 100 RBIs. Yep, I said it, and not in a midnight tweet.


As for the batting average, the highest full-season mark I'm willing to project at this point is .270, and trust me, that really would be buying in to what we have seen so far. He isn't a speedster, and the BABIP must drop. Trumbo will be a candidate, more than most players, for slumps; last season, he hit as high as .270 in only two months. In September he hit .233 with a .250 OBP, with one walk in 88 plate appearances. I don't necessarily see months like that pending, but who wouldn't take a 35/100 season and a .270 batting average from Trumbo? He's fantasy-eligible at first base and the outfield, and with two more games at third base, you can use him there in ESPN standard leagues, as well. The Angels have been using him at corner outfield, but with right fielder Torii Hunter back, Trumbo has been playing left field, with Trout usurping the struggling Peter Bourjos in center field. The Angels can't sit Trumbo. They can sit Bourjos and Hunter the way they're playing, and Vernon Wells is guaranteed nothing when he comes off the DL. Trumbo is going to play, fantasy owners. He is going to hit. Enjoy it, just be prepared for batting-average regression, even more than what I tweeted.

 

[HacheMan]

Be wary of Jose Valverde

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

For how much longer can the Detroit Tigers get by with the kind of inconsistency they've been getting from their closer, Jose Valverde?

Probably not much, and for that reason, it is now time for them to give some serious thought to a change. Perhaps they might have already by now, if not for the forearm troubles that have recently plagued setup man Joaquin Benoit, or the fact that equally inconsistent Octavio Dotel might be the next-most likely alternative.


Simply because Valverde remains "the guy" in Detroit, however, hardly means he can be trusted in fantasy. He's in the midst of a career-worst campaign, littered with warning signs, and hasn't shown much improvement in recent weeks. Let's take a statistical look at what ails Valverde:


• In no other major league season -- and he's in his 10th -- has he registered worse strikeout or walk rates, his 1.13 K's-per-walk ratio when comparing the two categories directly ranking fifth-worst among qualified relievers. In the history of baseball, only five pitchers (for a total of six seasons) managed 30 or more saves in a season with a K's-per-walk ratio of 1.25 or lower, it hasn't been done since 2004 (Shawn Chacon, 35), and it has been done just twice in the past 20 seasons.



TOP 75 RELIEF PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 75 relief pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Nathan, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Hanrahan, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Motte, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Axford, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Santiago Casilla, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Betancourt, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Putz, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Perez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Soriano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Heath Bell, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Robertson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Myers, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Valverde, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ernesto Frieri, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Addison Reed, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Broxton, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tyler Clippard, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Frank Francisco, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Huston Street, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfredo Aceves, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Capps, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Downs, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Hernandez, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Casey Janssen, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Romo, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Santos, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Adams, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vinnie Pestano, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon League, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Walden, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Marshall, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joaquin Benoit, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alexi Ogando, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian Fuentes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Greg Holland, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Cook, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Storen, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Steve Cishek, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Rodriguez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Russell, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Lindblom, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Burnett, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonny Venters, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Glen Perkins, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Collins, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Affeldt, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edward Mujica, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Thornton, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Peralta, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dale Thayer, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shawn Camp, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Bailey, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pedro Strop, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Grilli, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Marmol, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Grant Balfour, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Cashner, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Octavio Dotel, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Rauch, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Lyon, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake McGee, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luis Perez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Koji Uehara, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Pryor, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Farnsworth, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Javier Lopez, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wilton Lopez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Javy Guerra, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr></tbody></table>




• He has afforded opponents a .229 well-hit average, 12th-worst out of 138 qualified relievers (93rd percentile). Compare that to his .149 number in 2011 (87th percentile), .143 in 2010 (92nd percentile) or .145 in 2009 (89th percentile). Opposing hitters are making scads of hard contact against him this year.


• His fastball velocity has declined this season, averaging just 93.6 mph. That's only slightly beneath his 93.8-mph average of 2011, but it's significantly lower than his 95.6-mph average in 2009 or 95.1 mph in 2010.


Valverde's stuff has been clearly lacking this season, and you can be sure that, had Benoit been consistently healthy the past few weeks, he might soon be getting a look in the ninth inning. Heck, Benoit might still get the opportunity in the near future, assuming he strings together a couple positive outings this week fresh off his injury. After all, Benoit did get the call during a one-week period in mid-May, while Valverde was nursing a back injury.


Benoit, to compare, has been successful in many of the areas that Valverde has not: He has a 37 percent miss rate on opponents' swings, fifth-best among qualified relievers; he has a 13.31 K's-per-nine ratio that ranks ninth and a 3.18 K's-per-walk ratio comparable with some of the better years in his career; and he has a .116 well-hit average allowed, which is 20th-best out of 138 qualified relievers.


If you're a Valverde owner or are merely scrounging for saves, Benoit is well worth a look. Among the more prominent closers in the game, Valverde is probably the most likely to be next to lose his job due to declining skills.


Sticking with the week's theme of bold, "it is now time" calls, let's take a look at few other relief pitchers.


"It is now time…" to declare Aroldis Chapman the No. 1 relief pitcher in fantasy baseball. This might not seem that bold of a call; Chapman is already the No. 1 relief pitcher on our Player Rater, so it'd merely be a matter of him keeping it up. "Relief Efforts" has sung Chapman's praises many times, so at this stage, let's just sit back and enjoy declaring him the tops at his position. He has a 0.00 ERA in 29 innings (he has allowed only an unearned run, on May 17), has a 16.14 K's-per-nine ratio that ranks second in the majors, a .074 batting average allowed that paces all relievers, and he has shaved more than four walks per nine innings off his 2011 number, his 2.79 walks-per-nine ratio so far a career best. Even expected regression wouldn't lower Chapman's value beneath anyone else on the list; remember that he wasn't closing for the Cincinnati Reds all season, so any hit to his ERA and WHIP will be offset by the gains he makes in saves going forward.


"It is now time…" to stash Glen Perkins in AL-only and deep mixed leagues. Perkins was a sneaky late-round selection in these formats during the preseason, his drafting owners clinging to the hope that his superior 2011 numbers to Matt Capps' might mean a potential changing of the ninth-inning guard this year. Things might not have worked out that way in April, but Perkins has picked up the pace of late, tossing 12 consecutive scoreless appearances with a 10.97 K's-per-nine innings ratio and a .121 BAA, to put himself back into contention. Even better: All but three of those outings came in games that, at the time he entered, the Twins led, were tied or trailed by no more than two runs, showing that he's back in the late-inning conversation. Perkins' balanced splits -- he has held right-handers to .204/.267/.315 triple-slash rates -- make him a more than solid closer hopeful, and don't overlook that Capps has two critical flaws: a 5.24 K's-per-nine ratio that puts the onus on his defense to make plays behind him, and a 38.9 percent fly ball rate that is both higher than the major league average for relievers and a bit too high for a pitcher who frequently puts said ball in play. We might yet see a change in Twins closers sometime midsummer, once Capps strings together a few shaky outings, so stash Perkins if your league is deep enough to afford it.


"It is now time…" to trade Brett Myers. Although Myers has enjoyed a productive season back in the closer role, ranking 11th among pure relievers, he's in an almost-identical situation to that of Francisco Rodriguez a year ago at this time. Myers' contract has a $10 million option for 2013 that was set to vest at 25 starts this season, and was adjusted to an unannounced number of games finished when the Houston Astros announced his conversion to closer in April. He's on pace for 59 games finished, which would assuredly cause his option to vest, meaning the Astros are practically guaranteed to trade him before the July 31 deadline for non-waiver trades. And, as usual, most of the contending teams in need of bullpen help already have closers they'd probably use ahead of him. Granted, Rodriguez was a productive fantasy pitcher in a setup role following his trade to the Milwaukee Brewers; he had a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP after the deal, but the loss of saves deflated his value in the vast majority of formats. Myers' season might follow the same pattern, and here are the raw facts: There are more Astros games scheduled after the July 31 deadline (58) than before it (49), and that's before accounting for potential postponements or the prospect that Myers is traded sooner. In other words, he might have a good chance of having more holds than saves from today forward.

 

[HacheMan]

How to address steals/saves deficiencies

Eric Karabell

It's certainly been a crazy season for closers, as half the projected top 10 saves leaders from the preseason ESPN Fantasy Draft Kit are likely to fall considerably short of their projected totals. We said goodbye to Brian Wilson and Mariano Rivera, Huston Street just returned from injury, Brandon League is a middle reliever, and who knows what happens in the next few weeks with Heath Bell.




But check out the projected stolen base leaders, and you'll find the list to be just as volatile, if not more so. Predicted top 10 contributors Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are hurt, Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings only recently got healthy, Dee Gordon can't hit or get on base very well (.274 OBP!), and the deeper you go it's just as problematic.


<offer>I see a correlation. Saves and stolen bases should be tabled on draft day, and neither should be aggressively traded for during the season. Just look at the leaderboards. Yet one look at your free-agent options reveals there's not much there, right? Essentially, and this isn't a perfect comparison, Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Bourn is a lot more like his team's closer, Craig Kimbrel, for fantasy purposes than we thought. They're the best at what they do, but after that, there's little reliability when it comes to the categories these fellows specialize in.</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>Sure, Bourn and Kimbrel are awesome, but their lofty heights on the Player Rater measures sheer numbers, not value against peers. Kimbrel is seventh among closers. Look at the leaderboards for steals and saves, and it's littered with surprises (Chris Perez, Emilio Bonifacio) and even undrafted options (Fernando Rodney, Santiago Casilla, Tony Campana). You shouldn't regret Kimbrel as your sixth-round pick, but the guy ahead of you in the standings might have a Rodney-Jim Johnson bullpen. Now how do you feel? I hope you don't feel like trading for Rodney or Johnson!


One could certainly argue selecting Bourn -- and Kimbrel -- when you know what they'll do is the wise and safe thing to do, as opposed to messing with risks. I see that. Half of us seem desperate for saves and steals; that's why my chats and Twitter are so littered with questions about those next guys, like Ben Revere and Michael Saunders. Even the top options become risky faster than we realize. Further, it's noteworthy that 24th-rounder Alejandro De Aza has the same Player Rater rank as Bourn, and Campana is still sitting there on 82 percent of free-agent lists in standard formats.



There's more. It's about supply and demand with closers. It's why we have to select even the poorer options like Matt Capps every year. We need saves. Well, we don't need them early in drafts, and we should always try to move them in deals, so we can find other, cheaper (yet just as messy) choices. Check out the demand for stolen bases so far.• On June 7, 2011, Bourn and Ellsbury were the only players with more than 20 stolen bases. Six others had swiped as many as 15 bases. Thirty players were in double digits.


• Today, on June 7, 2012, Bonifacio is the only player with 20 steals. He is hurt and won't be adding to his total for a while. Campana, hardly a regular contributor for the Chicago Cubs, is second with 18 steals. Five players have stolen 15 bases. There are 23 players in double digits, considerably down from 2011, although two months isn't the biggest sample size.


We used to say "wait on steals" in drafts, and that still applies, but note that they aren't so prevalent anymore. While answering questions in Wednesday's lively chat session, it dawned on me that desperate people were not only trading for closers like Capps and Casilla, but they're targeting underwhelming stolen base providers as well. Why trade for Rajai Davis, for example? We know what he is, and it isn't special. Capps isn't special, either. Next week, there will be some changes at closer (Cubs, Mariners), and rather than trading Bryan LaHair for Capps -- that's rarely a good idea, even if you're set offensively -- why not play the waiver-wire game? You should be selling on Capps, not buying. I'm all for adding a guy like Davis at no cost, because he can steal 10 bags in any given month, but I don't think the Blue Jays intend to use him regularly. Add him, but be prepared to move on.


Simply put, saves and stolen bases are similar. There really aren't that many of either one, contrary to general opinion. I don't think that makes the top choices more valuable, though, and it clearly doesn't do so with the average options. It makes one-trick ponies more risky, lesser keepers. I think it makes it more obvious to move the average choices in trades before they show their true stripes. Rajai Davis isn't a regular player destined for 400 at-bats. Campana certainly isn't. I wouldn't trade anything of value -- well, maybe a closer! -- to acquire them. I'll wait for the next Quintin Berry to temporarily emerge, because he won't maintain performance, and he won't be on your roster in a month. There's always someone new coming in, so play the hot hands (Nyjer Morgan, Scott Podsednik and Elian Herrera qualify for that currently) and keep on looking when they slow down.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

D'Backs Boss Bites Drew
Your name is Ken Kendrick. Over 40 years ago, you began your career at IBM. Just three years later, you founded Datatel, Inc., and made enough money to move abroad and sip mai tais for the rest of your life. You didn't want to do that. You moved on from technology in the 80's, possibly because you sought new challenges. You proved wildly successful in the financial service and banking industries.



You helped bring baseball to Arizona. You're a lauded philanthropist.



By all accounts, you are a brilliant man. You create, you invent, you revolutionize. You also are extremely generous. The charities you work with rake in millions of dollars a year. But, at your core, you are just like the rest of us, aren't you, Mr. Kendrick? You love baseball. I mean, you LOVE it. Not only did you aid in the procurement of an expansion franchise in the Valley of the Sun, but you are also a trading card nerd who purchased Honus Wagner's famous 1909 T206 card once owned by Wayne Gretzky. Presently, your nonpareil collection of exotic cards is on loan to the Baseball Hall of Fame.



I will never be half as smart as you, nor 1-percent as successful. But—forgive me—I'm paid to ask these questions: What in the hell did you believe you were accomplishing on Tuesday?



On some radio show called "Big Guy on Sports," Kendrick had this to say about rehabbing shortstop Stephen Drew:



"I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now. And, frankly, I for one am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say I think Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary. All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity, and, frankly, we have our concerns."



Mr. Kendrick wasn't done. He also decided to take a shot at franchise cornerstone Justin Upton, calling him an "enigma" and saying he hasn't played like the player Arizona expects. "It's time for him to be a consistent performer," Kendrick said.



Look: If I were in Kendrick's position, controlling my anger would be the most difficult aspect of my job. You're the managing general partner of the Diamondbacks, you've been with them since inception and in some ways you treat them like your child. That's human nature. But blasting Drew—who very well may be milking his rehabilitation either to create leverage for an extension, or, as Kendrick suggests, to be 100% healthy when he inevitably hits free agency over the winter—is a fool's errand.



If your goal was to tarnish Drew's reputation, you're too late. J.D. didn't do his brother any favors in establishing the family name as a paragon of virtue in baseball circles. If your goal was to get Drew to return before his own timeline, you just detonated any chance of it.



Drew and the Diamondbacks have a $10 million mutual option for 2013 that has less chance of exercising than Bartolo Colon on an off day. Divorce may have been inevitable, but the guise of amicability is just good business. You know that, Mr. Kendrick. You’ve been too successful for too long.



As for Upton, I'm speechless. In cases like this, Mr. Kendrick, honesty isn't the best policy. Silence is.



Red Sox pull plug on Bard experiment... for now



Boston may have outsmarted themselves over the offseason when they traded several assets—Josh Reddick, a pair of prospects, Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland—to acquire Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) and Mark Melancon to replace Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard in the eighth and ninth innings.



As we now know, Bailey hasn't yet pitched for the BoSox, Melancon was a disaster before his banishment to the minors, and Bard was a glorified batting practice coach in the rotation until he was mercifully sent to Triple-A on Tuesday.



After one of the season's ugliest starts on Sunday against the Blue Jays—five runs on six walks, one hit and two HBP in just 1 2/3 innings—Bard was left with a 5.24 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and more walks than strikeouts (37 to 34).



Papelbon's exit was inevitable. But the decisions that followed may end up being the margin between Boston playing in October or reading the local media's annual offseason witch-hunt to locate the perpetrator(s) of another lost season (watch your back, Bobby V!).



Apparently, Bard will continue to work as a starter in the minors as the Red Sox refuse to abandon plans for him to be a future cog in the rotation. For now. Who knows.



In the interim, mixed leaguers would be wise to cut bait. AL-only owners should hang on to Bard unless playing in a shallow format and in need of a bench spot.





Feeling a Draft?



Despite the fact that you're reading this column, there is approximately a 99.3% chance that you didn't give a rip about Rounds 2-10 of MLB's draft, conducted Tuesday.



You're out of luck, because I watched hours of Day Two coverage online. I've seen so much Jonathan Mayo over the past 48 hours that I began hallucinating yesterday afternoon that he was one of those embryos pulled out of The Matrix, like Keanu Reeves. Later in the day, as Mayo continued to espouse knowledge about high schoolers in Texas that not even those children's parents knew about, I started to think he looked and acted like a Pre-Cog from Minority Report. Just like Samantha Morton's Agatha, Mayo was bald, omniscient and seemingly trapped in a hell he couldn't escape.



The Astros kicked off Tuesday's festivities by taking University of Florida shortstop Nolan Fontana at No. 61 overall.



Other picks of note:



The Twins spent most of the day trying to convince the industry that they really, really—no seriously, guys!—like power arms now. They kicked off the paradigm shift with Northwestern State's Mason Melotakis at No. 63 and Rice's J.T. Chargois at No. 72.



Cincinnati snatched Baseball America's top available prospect with the 78^th pick, tabbing prep shortstop Tanner Rahier (who projects at the hot corner at the next level). He's going to be extremely difficult to sign, but if the Reds can pull it off, they just landed a nice power-hitting third base prospect.



The Red Sox caught falling high school right-handed pitcher Ty Buttrey at No. 151. The 6-6, 210 pounder was ranked as the 25^th best high school baseball recruit by ESPN and was projected as a possible supplemental first-round pick. Boston will have to pony up to keep him from his commitment to Arkansas.



In my favorite story of the day, the Dodgers took wacky Cuban defector Onelki Garcia, a 22-year-old left-handed pitcher, at No. 113. Garcia's long, strange journey has taken him from innocent defector to a dude reportedly involved in doctoring papers and demanding a $7 million bonus. He made the mistake of moving to the United States too early, apparently. Nebulous machinations had him ruled eligible and then ineligible for the 2011 draft. Those are just bullet points from several stories I read yesterday. Frankly, I don't know who to trust.



Word to the wise, Onelki: You're going to have to take a zero off your asking price or take your act overseas.





Nobody Cares Quick Hits: Major League Baseball announced that it would allow players to use social media outlets during the All-Star Game; unfortunately, Jose Canseco retired long ago, depriving hardball fans the privilege of a "I complete you all and slap a hater" tweet after he whiffed against Stephen Strasburg.



National League Quick Hits: "I'm not right," Jamie Garcia said after allowing six runs over just two innings against the Astros. Skipped in the rotation last week due to elbow soreness, Garcia may be headed to the disabled list, despite claiming his pain is gone ... Jason Bay (rib) expects to be activated from the disabled list on Wednesday … The Pirates promoted Alex Presley from Triple-A Indianapolis after he hit .277 with five homers, 14 RBI, four stolen bases and a 1.015 OPS in 18 games. Those numbers are obviously a fluke, but the young outfielder is worth a look to all you NL-only owners ... Tim Hudson notched his 13th career shutout in holding the Marlins to five hits and three walks while striking out three ... Carlos Quentin smacked two homers in San Diego's victory over the Giants and is now is hitting a ludicrous .522/.577/1.348 with five homers and nine RBI in six games since returning from the DL ... Huston Street returned from the disabled list and earned a victory with a scoreless ninth versus the Giants ... The Rockies and Dodgers have talked to the Nationals about starter John Lannan, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com ... The Padres are considering moving Andrew Cashner into the rotation, but a change isn't imminent ... Javy Guerra is expected to miss 4-6 weeks following right knee surgery.



American League Quick Hits: The Tigers are considering making Quintin Berry their regular left fielder once Austin Jackson (abdomen) comes off the disabled list. As long as he is getting at-bats, Berry’s Mach 7 speed makes him relevant in most fantasy formats ... Dustin Pedroia (thumb) returned to Boston's lineup after missing six games ... Alex Avila missed two games due to right hamstring tightness and left Tuesday's game in the sixth inning after aggravating the same injury ... Joe Mauer (thumb) missed a second straight game, but the Twins hope he'll be back on Friday ... Colby Rasmus went 5-for-5 with a homer in a victory over the White Sox ... Paul Konerko had a minor procedure on his left wrist but expects to play on Wednesday ... Mark Trumbo went 4-for-4 with a pair of homers and four RBI against the Mariners ... Francisco Liriano spun six innings of one-run ball against the Royals. In two starts since returning to the rotation, Frankie has allowed just one run over 12 innings to go with a 17/3 K/BB rate ... Rangers skipper Ron Washington said Roy Oswalt will not replace Scott Feldman in the rotation on Saturday ... Felix Hernandez (back) hopes to return to the rotation Sunday, but the Mariners think next Tuesday is more realistic ... The Angels summoned Hank Conger from Triple-A to replace Bobby Wilson (concussion) on the active roster. Snatch up Conger immediately in AL-only leagues ... The Blue Jays have expressed interest in acquiring Matt Garza from the Cubs, reports Rosenthal ... Desmond Jennings (left knee) and Carlos Santana (concussion) were activated from the DL on Tuesday.

 

[HacheMan]

Confounding the Numbers There are many tough aspects about finding saves and being a statistically-oriented analyst.

For one, there isn't actually any statistical link between good rates and the closer role, as Derek Carty has found in the past. It's true -- there isn't a correlation between strikeout rates or walk rates or ground-ball rates and taking the closer job. We talk about those rates in this column because they are the backbone of a good pitcher -- pitchers can largely only control strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates and little else. But even good pitchers behind bad closers remain setup men.

There are other ideas that don't hold statistical water. Good closers come from bad teams, and good teams barely produce more save opportunities than bad teams. And no matter how good your lefty reliever is, he's about half as likely to become a closer as he should be. Managers don't seem to prefer the lefty closer.

So we can barely use the skills of the player or the quality of the team to determine how valuable a reliever will be… what do we do?

Well, we try to find the best pitchers, because quality has a way of rising, and because strikeouts are an actual category -- get a guy with a good strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and a high ground-ball rate, and he's likely to help you in relevant roto categories (strikeouts, WHIP, ERA) even if he doesn't close.

Then, we have to look at roles. When a player is being used is more important, sometimes, than how good the player is. Ernesto Frieri was just Ernesto Frieri in San Diego, but when he got to Los Angeles and was used in high leverage situations, that's when we knew he was headed for saves as The Closer. He always had the strikeout rate skill, but the role change was important.

Hopefully that provided the reasoning behind some of the choices made in this column. And we'll name the tiers in honor of the good closers from bad teams that can return so much value on your smaller investment, just for fun.

Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Eric Gagne" Tier.)

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers

In 2003, Eric Gagne saved 55 games in a row for the Dodgers. He was lights out, with velocity and break and goggles to boot. Dude was nasty. The team won 85 games, which isn't crappy, but they didn't make the postseason either. Points to the lowered value of the position a little, but that's 'real' baseball. In fantasy baseball, Gagne that season was saves gold, but 2002 was really his fantasy gold season. All he'd done before 2002 was rack up a 4.5+ ERA as a starter, so he was really cheap going into that great season.

Jonathan Papelbon blew a save this week, and he is showing the worst swinging strike rate of his career. That's where the negatives end. He's still got a double-digit strikeout rate and a minuscule walk rate. He's gotten a little unlucky on home runs so far -- he's already given up as many homers (three) as he did all year last year -- and his velocity is at a career-low, but he'll be fine. There should be an added entry in our list of requirements for closers -- salary. Like Heath Bell in Miami, Papelbon will get a year-long leash if things get hairy. And they aren't.

Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Randy Myers" Tier.)

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants

In 1993, the Cubs finished 13 games out of the postseason and their closer racked up 53 saves. Another remarkable thing about those 53 saves is that they make up the most ever by a lefty closer. Randy Myers, Billy Wagner, John Franco… and your list of dominant lefty closers starts to dry up.

Joel Hanrahan got his first Kimbrel of the year, with three strikeouts and no baserunners Tuesday night. Both his strikeout and walk rates are up, and though that's not great on both counts, it's nice to see The Hammer use his gas to get whiffs this year. The 2010 version was a little more valuable than the 2011 version, after all -- those extra 39 strikeouts go a long way.

Kenley Jansen didn't get a Kimbrel Tuesday night -- two strikeouts and one hit -- but he's due for some in the future. His walk rate is much better this year. As a former catcher he didn't have the long track record of poor control that Javy Guerra (now on the DL after surprise knee surgery) showed. Even if the control takes a step back, he can be Carlos-Marmol-like with that strikeout rate. (Old Carlos Marmol, not the current version.)

Yes, Aroldis Chapman has been excellent and has whiteout stuff. But, going into this season, a source in the Reds organization felt he'd never close because he didn't like warming up on consecutive days. Has so much changed in the last two months? Maybe. It is worth noting that Sean Marshall has gotten a save since he was removed from the role, and it was because Chapman had pitched too often recently. So, the Cuban is excellent and offers strikeout and ratio value beyond his saves, but he also has a tiny bit of risk attached to his name.

It looked like Santiago Casilla might be slipping, since Sergio Romo saved a game for him, but it's mostly about his bruised knee. The team is acting like Casilla is still their closer and he just needs a day or two to rest. That's how his fantasy teams should act, too.

Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Bryan Harvey" Tier.)

Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox

Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees

Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

In 1993, the Marlins won 64 games. Their closer saved 45 of them! Bryan Harvey was a decent closer with a double-digit strikeout rate, but those early Marlins were not yet good. He's the champion, the patron saint of a good closer on a bad team, though. Even if you might expect a handful less saves from a bad team, you can always remember that 45 saves is possible even on a bad team. It's happened before.

Huston Street is back from his lat injury. We slowly moved him up, tier by tier, because he looked healthy to begin the year and we thought maybe he'd pitch more than 50 innings for once. Boom. Then he went down. And we can't even pretend that his seasonal injury is behind him -- injuries don't work that way. So Street might look out of place in this tier with his good ratios, but we have to remember that health is a skill. One that he doesn't necessarily have in spades.

He didn't have a good day -- Jim Johnson gave up two runs to blow the save against Boston Tuesday -- but he hung in there and got the win. It was the rare home run allowed for the sinkerballer, and it doesn't mean much for now. Pedro Strop has more strikeout punch, but also less control, so he's a holds guy for now.

Chris Perez. He's sort of one-man proof that strikeout and walk rates don't always predict the closer role situation. Vinnie Pestano is still striking out more batters than Perez, and for the second straight year he's had better peripherals than his closer, but he's still the setup man. Let's give Perez some credit -- he's got his strikeout and walk rate to about average for a closer, and he's even improved his ground-ball rate (though it's still bad). He's been better this year, and there are still reasons to be skeptical. After 252 innings of a walk rate over four (which is bad), he's got his walk rate under three this year (which is good), but that's in 22-plus innings. He also hasn't given up a home run this year on 26 fly balls. Across the league, it's a fact that 10% of fly balls leave the yard. If he regresses on the home runs and the walks at the same time, it might not take a long time to make a change at the position. It's also important to point out that he's an excellent pitcher that made it to the big leagues, but when judged against the other 20 best relievers in the game, a relatively normal 93 mph fastball and a slider can be seen as a recipe for platoon splits (that's just the nature of the movement of a slider), and Perez walks almost twice as many lefties as righties. For now, though, he's proven himself to be definitely okay.

Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Greg Aquino" Tier.)

Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox

The 2004 Diamondbacks had a bad bullpen. They also only won 51 games. But Greg Aquino managed 16 of the team's 30 saves with the best numbers of his life… on the surface. His 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP were hiding some poor ratios, though, thanks to some batted ball luck and a short 35 1/3 innings of exposure. He would soon cede the job to a flashy kid named Jose Valverde, but in 2004, Aquino was the guy that got his owners saves for cheap. Sometimes you have feel a little dirty on the way to a win.

Should Brett Myers be rated higher? After all, he's a good closer on a bad team, and there's very little competition for saves in his pen. On the other hand, his contract has a vesting option that depends on games finished, and the Astros don't really have use for a multi-million dollar closer right now. They'll be highly motivated to move him -- think Francisco Rodriguez and the Mets.

Frank Francisco technically blew a save Tuesday night, but it was a mess of Tim Byrdak's making, and it was in the eighth inning. More importantly, he didn't walk anyone, which makes six straight appearances without a walk. He's back on track, and Bobby Parnell is no great threat to his job. In some ways Frankie Frank even has better ratios than Jonathan Broxton, who has only struck out 14 in 22 2/3 innings, and didn't whiff a guy Tuesday night either. At least he's not walking guys…

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.<!--RW-->

Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Tom Buskey" Tier.)

Ernesto Frieri (first chair), Scott Downs (second chair), Jordan Walden (third chair), Los Angeles Angels
Brian Fuentes (first chair), Ryan Cook (second chair), Sean Doolittle (third chair), Oakland Athletics
Tom Wilhelmsen (first chair), Stephen Pryor (second chair), Brandon League (third chair), Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard (first chair), Sean Burnett (second chair), Washington Nationals
Casey Janssen (first chair), Francisco Cordero (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Shawn Camp (first chair), James Russell (second chair), Casey Coleman (third chair), Chicago Cubs

In 1979, the Blue Jays were two years old. Their closer, Tom Buskey, led the team with seven saves. The team only managed 11 saves on the year. Buskey was bad, too: Even though his ERA was good, he only struck out five batters per nine, and had average control. This was one of those rare cases where a bad team had a bad bullpen and didn't give them many chances. The 2012 Cubs should still manage better, though.

Ernesto Frieri only brings it at 93 MPH, but he's got a little funk in that delivery, and the fastball has a ton of movement. That's how you strike out double-digit dudes per nine over your career, and it's also how you have control problems from time to time. Right now, he's in the lead for the saves going forward -- not because Scott Downs has blown up, or even because his manager gave him the role, but because lefty closers are not a manager's friend. In the free agency era, lefties have been closers about half as much as they 'should have been' according to how many lefties there are in the league. A few more lights-out innings from Frieri, and his role will be affirmed in public.

Brian Fuentes has been showing his mediocre numbers (other than walk rate, which has been excellent this year) for a while now, and blown a few saves. The speculation has begun. As a lefty, maybe he's not the best fit for the role, but then that dings recent callup (and former first baseman) Sean Doolittle and his candidacy for the role. Ryan Cook is the guy with the flashy ERA and WHIP, and he has a nice swinging strike rate. The walk rate is a little high to demand a move, though -- he's walking over five per nine and getting a little lucky to have that ERA. He also had control problems in the minor leagues. If you're desperate for saves, Cook is an own, but Doolittle (and his 94-96 mph gas) is a watch.

Tom Wilhelmsen is the closer in Seattle. So much so that his manager is using him for multiple-inning saves. He has a great story too -- he dropped out of baseball to bartend and enjoy his twenties before coming back to Seattle camp and showing his old velocity and hammer curve and making the team. It's important to mention his control problems -- he's had them on and off in his career and they always threaten to return. If they do, new callup Stephen Pryor might get the call. He struck out Paul Konerko with two on and two out in the seventh inning in his debut -- with a 100-mph fastball. He's also had control problems off and on, but his strikeout rates have been enormous and he's definitely interesting. For now, though, he's being used in the seventh as much as the eighth, so it's hard to say what he is to the team.

Tyler Clippard and Casey Janssen continue to keep the seat warm for their injured closers. Read more on their situations below.

And the worst bullpen in baseball, the one that inspired me to start a mini-series investigating saves in baseball. Bad teams do indeed create save chances, but a bullpen as putrid as the one the Cubs own may not take advantage of them, and might not produce a single mixed-league closer this year. James Russel is barely a good LOOGY if judged by his rates, so he's not listed first here despite earning some saves. Shawn Camp is not exciting, but there are two things he's done his whole career: limit the walks and get ground balls. The ground balls aren't quite there yet this year, but the other 480 or so innings with a great ground-ball rate deserve more weight. He's no Jim Johnson either -- he'll get some strikeouts -- so Camp is the one to own here. Casey Coleman deserves a mention, but doesn't really have proven ability in any of the three main facets of pitching.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

Injuries

Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth (elbow), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen (elbow), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays

Andrew Bailey is playing catch at 90 feet but hasn't thrown off a mound. The All-Star break is still the goal. Drew Storen says he expects to start throwing off a mound in the next couple of weeks, and the All-Star break is his goal, too. Kyle Farnsworth says he's two weeks away. Sergio Santos threw off a mound! He could be two weeks away, suddenly.

The Deposed

Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs

Is Brian Fuentes next? And does Scott Downs deserve to go here if the Angels go with Ernesto Frieri full-time?

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

The Steals Department

We've talked about Ben Revere and Juan Pierre and Michael Brantley here in the past, but it's worth pointing out that they are stealing more bases recently. We've even talked about Jarrod Dyson before, but now it's time to consider him in mixed leagues. Well, as a short-term add. Because Dyson is making a ton of contact when judged by swinging strike rate, and he's one of the fastest three players in baseball. If you'd rather get ahead of the crowd by a move or two, though, Lorenzo Cain could begin his rehab assignment within the next week, and he's a better overall player once you factor in his power. Cain could still go for five home runs and 15 stolen bases in a half-season if his hip is okay.

We talked about the Padres middle infield last week, and it's looking like Everth Cabrera is the pick. They might both hit for poor batting averages, but Alexi Amarista is struggling right now. With the injuries in Los Angeles, there's another middle-infielder callup that might be interesting to deep leaguers -- Elian Herrera. He's playing like he wants to stay, and he has legit speed, but there are a few flaws in his game that kept him in the minor leagues for six years -- he strikes out a little too much and has no power. He doesn't always show good patience either. But right now he's walking and stealing bases, and that's more important than anything for deep league owners looking for speed. Even if he hits .250 from here on out, he's going to be valuable if he keeps playing.

 

[HacheMan]

The Mystery of Mauer
Joe Mauer’s been a lot of different things since being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2001 draft.

First, he was surprising. When the Twins passed on Mark Prior to take the hometown kid No. 1, they were mocked for appearing to base their decision on “signability.” Prior was seeking a record bonus that the Twins apparently had no intention of paying, so they drafted the cheaper player.

But Mauer wasn’t just the cheaper player — he was the better player. This was apparent by 2006, where Prior was throwing what (at least for now) would prove to be his final major league pitches as Mauer was hitting .347 en route to becoming the first American League catcher to win a batting title.

Only then Mauer began to vex. His average dropped 54 points as a variety of injuries limited him to 109 games in 2007. Just as quickly as he spoiled the party, however, he restarted it. Appearing in a career high 146 games the next season, Mauer rebounded to hit .328 and win his second batting title in three seasons.

After beginning 2009 on the disabled list with a back injury, Mauer decided to end all the debate: he wasn’t surprising, vexing or injury prone: he was the best player in the league. The hometown kid went 2-for-3 with a home run in his May 1 debut and never looked back, batting .365/.444/.587 as he slugged 28 home runs, tallied 96 RBI and won his third batting title and first MVP award.

Which brings to where we our now. It turns out Mauer wasn’t only vexing, he was confounding. After a victory lap 2010 where he hit just nine home runs but nevertheless batted .327/.402/.469 as the Twins yet again made the playoffs, Mauer has missed 84 of a possible 218 games as he’s battled all manner of ailments. Along the way, he’s hit “only” .292/.379/.388 while homering just six times in 134 games.

So as a thumb injury held him out for the third straight day Wednesday, it became hard not to ponder: what is the future of Joe Mauer? Of the Twins’ $184 million man? More frustration, or more resilience? More batting titles, or a deeper feeling of missed opportunity? A fizzling out, or future vengeance?

At least when it comes to his short-term future, we should have an answer by the weekend. But if the first nine years of Mauer’s career are any indication, that answer could be different — and dramatically so — by this time next week.

Dos Mets

Mauer is, of course, far from baseball’s only enigma. Two of the others reside on the Mets. Wednesday brought new chapters to the stories of both Jason Bay and Ike Davis.

For Bay, it was a return. Or at least the first half of one. Sidelined since April 23 with a broken rib, Bay came off the disabled list, but didn’t take the field in New York’s 5-3 loss to the Nationals. Whether he’ll play in today’s matinee remains to be seen, but if he does, he’ll be coming home to a .240/.316/.460 slash, a line more or less the same as the .251/.337/.386 one he posted in 2010-11. Unlike Mauer, it’s unlikely the narrative will be changing with Bay.

With Davis, it’s possible a changing of the narrative was what we witnessed on Wednesday. For just the second time in 54 games this season, the Mets’ 25-year-old first baseman reached base three times. A stunning stat in a vacuum, but not when you consider his .164/.237/.282 slash. One game is just one game, but the cliche is indeed true: you have to start somewhere.

If “starting somewhere” wasn’t what Davis was doing last night, it’s quite possible he’ll be starting somewhere entirely different in the very near future: Triple-A.

Freeman Goes Down

Just one week removed from his return from a case of blurred vision, Freddie Freeman went down again on Wednesday, this time with an injured left index finger.

Whether Freeman’s digit is bruised or broken will be determined by a Thursday morning X-ray, but at the very least, he shouldn’t be expected to suit up for this evening’s rubber match with the Marlins.



Game Notes: Brandon Morrow tossed his league-leading third shutout of the season. … Zack Greinke embarrassed the Cubs. … Allen Craig went 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBI. The Cardinals savior and fantasy dynamo is now batting .366/.420/.746 with seven home runs and 24 RBI in just 18 games. Hopefully he can stay healthy. … Michael Brantley hit his first home run. … Cameron Maybin hit his second. Off Madison Bumgarner, no less. … Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista all did their thing. … Pitching in a non-save situation, Carlos Marmol allowed one-out singles to Edwin Maysonet and Martin Maldonado before serving up a three-run homer to Taylor Green. He’s a long way away from stopper duties. … Adam LaRoche showed signs of life. … Rajai Davis stuffed the stat-sheet.

National League Short Hops: The Astros reached a verbal agreement with No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa. The 17 year old appears poised to get a much, much earlier start on his pro career than most No. 1 picks. … The Diamondbacks were called a “long, long shot” to trade for Kevin Youkilis. … CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported the Padres may look into signing Carlos Quentin beyond 2012. … A second opinion confirmed Roy Halladay’s (shoulder) strained lat diagnosis. … Jeff Francis returned home to the Rockies. … Justin Upton responded to his owner, missed another game. … Jaime Garcia (elbow, shoulder, hip) got bad news. … Jim Thome (back) came off the disabled list.

American League Short Hops: Alex Avila (hamstring) landed on the disabled list. … Jered Weaver (back) is tentatively expected to return when first eligible on June 13. … The Orioles signed Jamie Moyer to a minor-league contract. … Felipe Paulino recorded just two outs against the Twins before leaving with a groin injury. The injury-prone righty is likely to miss at least one start. … Austin Jackson (abdomen) will begin a rehab assignment today. … As will Salvador Perez (knee). … Paul Konerko (wrist) sat out for the second straight day. He’s day-to-day. … Daisuke Matsuzaka (elbow) will make his 2012 debut on Saturday against the Nationals.

 

[HacheMan]

Rebound for Rasmus?
Since I last left you last Thursday, Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in Mets history. You might have heard about it. As a lifelong Mets fan, I can assure you that I haven't been able to get it off my mind. You see, I'm too young to remember 1986, so it was the closest I've felt to the team winning a World Series. No-hitters have almost become old hat in recent years as offense has declined around the league, but this one was pretty special.

Getting that first one out of the way was obviously a monkey off the back for the franchise, but it also allowed many fans to turn the page on Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Adam Wainwright started opposite Santana, Carlos Beltran hit the liner down the third base line that was ruled foul and Yadier Molina hit the fly ball to left field which was tracked down by Mike Baxter, a 27-year-old from Queens who just happened to grow up a die-hard Mets fan. An elaborate series of coincidences? Almost certainly. But if that's what it takes for Mets fans to move forward, I'll take it.

I'll be honest when I say that I wasn't expecting anything from Santana coming into the season. Actually, it was hard to find many who did. He was almost going into uncharted territory following anterior capsule surgery. However, the veteran southpaw has bounced back with an incredible 2.38 ERA and 68/21 K/BB ratio over 68 innings. This includes back-to-back shutouts and a strikeout rate of 9.0 K/9, his best since 2007 with the Twins.

The fanboy inside me says Santana will be just fine after the extra rest and continue this incredible ride, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about the career-high 134 pitches he needed for the no-hitter. His surgically-repaired shoulder will always be in the back of my mind. And it should be for fantasy owners, too. Given the minimal investment needed to secure Santana on draft day this year, exploring sell-high opportunities might not be the worst idea.

MIXED LEAGUES

Colby Rasmus OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 38 percent owned, ESPN: 47.6 percent)

Is there a more frustrating talent in the game than Rasmus? If not, he's pretty darn close to the top of the list. Since entering play on May 20 with a lowly .203 batting average, the 25-year-old Georgia native is hitting .344 (21-for-61) with 11 extra-base hits (four homers), 11 RBI, two stolen bases, 12 runs scored and a 1.075 OPS. Is this indicative of anything moving forward? Given Ramsus' ups-and-downs, it's anybody's guess. But he plays a ton of games in environments which are very friendly to left-handed power (Rogers Centre, Yankee Stadium, Oriole Park at Camden Yards) and he could score a ton of runs if he continues to hit No. 2 in front of Jose Bautista. The opportunity is there, so he's worth a look in most formats.

Gordon Beckham 2B, White Sox (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 48.4 percent)

Beckham has been a tremendous disappointment since his promising rookie campaign back in 2009, but he's at least showing signs of usefulness in the early part of 2012. The 25-year-old has already collected eight home runs in 54 games, just two shy of his total from all of last season. The only second base-eligible players with more home runs are Jason Kipnis, Robinson Cano, Kelly Johnson and Dan Uggla. I'm truly skeptical whether the power spike is for real, as his current fly ball rate (40.1 percent) isn't any different than his career rate (40 percent), but it helps that he hits in the best home ballpark for right-handed power. And his improved contact rate (81.3 percent) at least gives hope for some improvement with his batting average moving forward. He's still not a strong play in shallow mixed leagues, but he should be owned in deeper formats.

Brian Matusz SP, Orioles (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 6.5 percent)

Excuse the arbitrary endpoints, but Matusz has a very solid 2.87 ERA and 28/9 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 innings over his last five starts. His success goes back a bit further, though. While there was a seven-run clunker against the Rangers mixed in, the 25-year-old left-hander has allowed three earned runs or less in seven out of his last eight starts and hasn't walked more than three batters in any of them. And these aren't bad offenses he's holding down. Sure, two of those starts were against the Royals, but he also faced the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays. Pretty impressive. I'd need to see a bit more before investing in a shallow mixed leagues, but it's clear he has turned a corner from his historically bad 2011 campaign.

Jason Bay OF, Mets (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent)

I know, I know. Bay has a disappointing .251/.335/.391 batting line since signing his four-year, $66 million contract with the Mets in January of 2010. It's pretty well documented. But that doesn't mean he can't be useful in fantasy leagues. The 33-year-old outfielder had three homers in just 57 plate appearances prior to suffering a non-displaced rib fracture in April. That's a quarter of his home runs from all of last year. And while the power hasn't been there during his tenure in New York, he has stolen at least 10 bases in six out of the last seven seasons. There are better options available in shallow mixed leagues, but those in deeper formats should speculate that the new dimensions at Citi Field will give him a lift.

Jemile Weeks 2B, Athletics (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 46 percent)

Weeks was a popular sleeper pick in drafts this spring after hitting .303 with 22 stolen bases and 50 runs scored in 97 games last year, but he's hitting just .223/.307/.325 over his first 232 plate appearances this season. What gives? It appears the 25-year-old has been the victim of some bad luck, as he has a .256 BABIP, despite a solid 21.3 percent line drive rate and 87.6 percent contact rate. With his speed, I fully expect things to turn around in the days ahead. Besides, it hasn't been all bad for Weeks this season. He has already walked 23 times in 52 games after walking just 21 times in 97 games last year. If an impatient owner has given up on him, be sure to take advantage.

Trevor Cahill SP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 47 percent owned, ESPN: 16.4 percent)

Cahill hasn't had much trouble surviving in the desert, posting a solid 3.45 ERA over his first 11 starts as a member of the Diamondbacks. While his walks are up (3.71 BB/9) and his strikeouts are down (6.01 K/9), his 63.5 percent ground ball rate is a career-high. In fact, only Derek Lowe (63.9 percent) has a higher ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers this season. The 24-year-old sinkerballer tossed his second career shutout Sunday against the Padres and has a favorable matchup this weekend against the Athletics, his former team, during interleague play.

Mark Reynolds 1B/3B, Orioles (Yahoo: 39 percent owned, ESPN: 31.8 percent)

There isn't a lot of upside with Reynolds, as he is mostly who is he is at this point, but I do expect his power numbers to increase as the season moves along. While his fly ball rate is down a tad (43.8 percent) from his career norm (47.7 percent), his home run per fly ball rate is down to 9.4 percent from his career average of 20.5 percent. He hasn't had home run per fly ball rate lower than 18.2 percent in a full season, so odds are we'll some correction in the days ahead. You're obviously sacrificing some batting average due to his free-swinging ways, but his power potential makes him a palatable option in most leagues.

Matt Harrison SP, Rangers (Yahoo: 39 percent owned, ESPN: 36.2 percent)

Harrison isn't a sexy name, but he continues to get the job done. The 26-year-old lefty is tied for the AL lead with seven wins while posting a 4.37 ERA over his first 11 starts. That ERA doesn't exactly scream must-own, but he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his starts this year, including four in a row. And while his strikeout rate (5.66 K/9) isn't all that special, his outstanding command (2.31 BB/9) and ground ball tilt (48.2 percent) should make him a safe option in most matchups. Hey, it doesn't hurt that he has the majors' best offense supporting him, either.

Trevor Bauer SP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 3.3 percent)

I really mean it this time. Bauer has continued to knock on the door for a possible promotion to the majors by posting a 2.52 ERA and 31/12 K/BB ratio in 25 innings across his first four starts with Triple-A Reno. Walks have been an issue for him during his brief pro career (4.5 BB/9), but it's clear to see that he's been dominant. The 2011 No. 3 overall pick has averaged 11.2 K/9 in 12 starts between Double- and Triple-A this year while holding opposing batters to a measly .202 batting average. There's no clear opening for him in the Diamondbacks' rotation at the moment, but that could change at any time and without warning. Stash away if you have the roster flexibility. It shouldn't be much longer.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Scott Hairston OF, Mets (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1.5 percent)

Hairston has really taken advantage of limited playing time this season by socking eight homers and driving in 24 runs in just 106 plate appearances. Only 15 players (with at least 100 plate appearances) have a higher OPS than his .966 mark this season. Not surprisingly, he has done most of his damage against left-handed pitching, collecting seven homers and 17 RBI. The return of Jason Bay complicates things a bit, but Hairston could start splitting at-bats in right field if the struggling Ike Davis is eventually demoted and Lucas Duda is moved over to first base. He makes for a solid short-term play in five-outfielder formats at the very least, as the Mets will have the benefit of the DH this weekend against the Yankees.

Salvador Perez C, Royals (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 1.3 percent)

Remember this guy? Yeah, well, he's set to begin a rehab assignment Thursday after beginning the season on the disabled list following March surgery to repair a left lateral meniscus tear. If all goes well, Perez should be back in the Royals' lineup by the end of the month. The 22-year-old batted .331/.361/.473 with three homers, 21 RBI and an .834 OPS in just 158 plate appearances after making his major league debut last August, so he's worth stashing away in two-catcher formats. Just keep in mind that he benefitted from a .362 BABIP in his small sample of success last year, so don't look for him to maintain such a lofty batting average over the long haul.

Bobby Abreu OF, Dodgers (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 2.2 percent)

Perhaps Abreu isn't done being a fantasy asset. In his first 29 games with the Dodgers, the 38-year-old outfielder is hitting .316/.438/.443 with one home run, nine RBI, two stolen bases and an .881 OPS. He's done it on the strength of a .387 BABIP, which almost certainly won't continue, but his incredible 32.9 percent line drive rate tells you that he has mostly earned it. And while he's striking out more often this season (22.8 percent), he's also drawing walks at a higher rate (15.4 percent) than his career average. Abreu's days of double-digit homers are behind him, but he should be able to post a solid batting average and OPS while swiping a few bags. That's plenty useful in five-outfielder formats.

Brian Roberts 2B, Orioles (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 0.7 percent)

After missing a year with concussion symptoms, Roberts is finally inching his way back to the majors. The 34-year-old second baseman is hitting .267 (8-for-30) with a homer and five doubles during his minor league rehab assignment and is on track to return to the Orioles when his 20-day rehab window expires next Tuesday. It may take him a little while to shake the rust against major league pitching, but he should have value in most mixed leagues if he can stay on the field and avoid any setbacks. He's a worthy DL-stash if you need help at second base or a MI (middle infielder) spot. <!--RW-->

NL ONLY

Jordan Lyles SP/RP, Astros (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Lyles has bounced back and forth from Triple-A to the majors on multiple occasions this season, but the Astros now plan to give him an extended look in the starting rotation. Coming off a start where he held the NL Central-leading Reds to just two runs over seven innings on Sunday, it's hard to say he doesn't deserve the opportunity. While Lyles owns an ugly 5.27 ERA over his first 123 innings in the big leagues, he has seen a nice jump in fastball velocity (89.8 mph to 91.2 mph) this year after making some mechanical tweaks. The previous regime moved him pretty aggressively, so it's easy to forget that he's just 21 years old. Perhaps something will finally click for him.

Elian Herrera 2B/3B, Dodgers (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.9 percent)

The Dodgers haven't had much luck with injuries recently, but fortunately for them, Herrera has stepped in quite nicely while filling in at multiple positions. The 27-year-old switch hitter is batting .306 (22-for-72) with six doubles, nine RBI and two stolen bases in 21 games since his call-up last month. This includes a pair of go-ahead hits against the Phillies this week. Herrera has swiped at least 31 bases in each of his last three full seasons in the minors, so he can help a lot of fantasy teams right now, even in some deeper mixed formats. He needs to be owned in more leagues right now, even with Juan Uribe on the comeback trail from a wrist injury.

Chris Young SP, Mets (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.4 percent)

Young started a major league game Tuesday for the first time since shoulder capsule surgery (the same surgery as Johan Santana) and allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings against the Nationals. He topped out at 85.9 mph on his fastball and averaged 83.9 mph, which is just a shade under where he's been the past couple of seasons. We're talking about a guy who has made just nine starts over the past three seasons and 41 dating back to the start of 2008, so who knows how long his arm will hold up, but he's always managed to have success due to the deceptive delivery from his 6-foot-10 frame. Worth a flier.

Fernando Martinez OF, Astros (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Martinez never matched the hype attached to him as a top prospect in New York, mostly due to a combination of a chronic knee condition and being rushed up the organizational ladder, but he has found new life since being claimed off waivers from the Astros in January. Finally healthy, the 23-year-old batted .319/.374/.532 with eight homers, 38 RBI and a .906 OPS over 51 games with Triple-A Oklahoma City before being called up to the big club over the weekend. He's just 1-for-15 with nine strikeouts thus far, which is pretty ugly, but he should continue to get regular looks in right field in the short-term.

AL ONLY

Hank Conger C, Angels (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Bobby Wilson was placed on the 7-day disabled list with a concussion earlier this week after being hit in the catcher's mask by a foul tip, so the Angels called up Conger from Triple-A Salt Lake. We probably would have seen him immediately following Chris Iannetta's wrist surgery last month, but he just recently returned after missing more than five weeks with a sprained right elbow. Though Conger batted just .209 in 177 at-bats with the Angels last year, he also clubbed six home runs. The power potential makes him a solid pickup in AL-only leagues, even though Iannetta is likely a couple weeks away from rejoining the Angels' lineup.

Daisuke Matsuzaka SP, Red Sox (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

He's back. After missing a year following Tommy John surgery, Dice-K is scheduled to make his return to the Red Sox this Saturday against the Nationals. The 31-year-old right-hander was sharp during his rehab assignment, posting a 3.65 ERA and 30/9 K/BB ratio over 37 innings between High-A Salem, Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket and topped out at 94 mph on his fastball during his most recent tuneup on Tuesday night. Control problems have doomed him during his time with Boston and that likely isn't going away, but he should be able to pile up some strikeouts (8.21 K/9) and win a handful of games with the high-scoring Red Sox offense behind him. Don't forget that the Dice-K is also in the final year of his six-year, $52 million contract, so he should have plenty of motivation to perform.

Sean Doolittle RP, Athletics (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Doolittle was originally drafted by the A's as a first baseman/outfielder back in 2007, but he decided to give pitching a try late last year following a series of knee injuries. It looks like he made the right choice. The 25-year-old left-hander earned a promotion to the majors earlier this week after posting a fantastic 0.72 ERA and 48/7 K/BB ratio over 25 innings between High-A Stockston, Double-A Midland and Triple-A Sacramento. Yes, 48 strikeouts in 25 innings, good enough for an average of 17.3 K/9. His secondary pitches are a work in progress, but he sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and could eventually find his way to the backend of the A's bullpen. Those in deeper AL-only leagues can afford to speculate.

Brandon Moss OF, Athletics (Yahoo: 0 percent, ESPN: 0 percent)

The A's surprised many on Wednesday by designating Kila Ka'aihue for assignment and calling up Brandon Moss to serve as the new starting first baseman. To his credit, Moss earned the opportunity by hitting .286/.371/.582 with 15 homers, 33 RBI and a .582 OPS in 51 games with Triple-A Sacramento. Of course, it's important to recognize that those numbers were accomplished in the Pacific Coast League and the 28-year-old is a .235/.299/.380 hitter over 752 plate appearances in the majors. My gut says Moss is your typical Quad-A bat, but he's worth a flier in AL-only leagues while he tries to prove otherwise.

 

[HacheMan]

Buchholz Bounces Back
Some folks were clamoring for Clay Buchholz to be sent down to the minors just a few weeks ago, but it's safe to say that he has turned a corner. The 27-year-old right-hander was completely dominant Thursday night against the Orioles, allowing just four hits, one walk and two hit batsmen as part of a complete game 7-0 victory. It was the third shutout of Buchholz's career, all of which have been against the Orioles.

Buchholz was dropped in many mixed fantasy leagues after he began this season with an ugly 9.09 ERA over his first six starts while allowing 10 home runs and 19 walks over just 32 2/3 innings, but something has really clicked over the past month. He has allowed three runs or less in five out his last six starts and has an excellent 1.50 ERA and 19/4 K/BB ratio over his last three outings.

The key to his sudden turnaround? It's pretty simple. He's walking fewer batters and keeping the ball in the ballpark for the most part. That's a pretty good recipe for success for anyone, really.

Even when Buchholz is at his best, he can be a pretty divisive fantasy property. Neither his strikeout rate (6.71 career K/9) or walk rate (3.74 career BB/9) are considered elite and he has managed to outpitch his xFIP and FIP for his career. Of course, he has also induced ground balls 50 percent of the time for his career and has the luxury of one of the highest scoring offenses in baseball supporting him. Hence his six wins this season, despite a 5.77 ERA. I don't expect Buchholz to replicate his 2.33 ERA from 2010 in the near future, but he shouldn't be sitting on the waiver wire any longer.

Counting on Cashner

The injury-riddled Padres' rotation will soon get a lift. The team announced Thursday that hard-throwing right-hander Andrew Cashner will fill Eric Stults' place in the starting rotation Saturday against the Brewers before being optioned down to the minor leagues in order to build his workload. The 25-year-old hasn't thrown more than 39 pitches in any of his relief appearances this season, so he'll only work into the third inning on Saturday.

The jury's out on whether Cashner will make it as a starter in the big leagues. He certainly has the repertoire, including a mid-90s fastball, a high-80s slider and a changeup, but he has been plagued by control problems (4.9 BB/9) during his brief major league career and when the Cubs tried him as a starter early last year, a rotator cuff injury knocked him out for nearly the entire season. Still, it's a worthy experiment for the rebuilding Padres, who should be looking for all ways to maximize value.

We'll likely have to wait a few weeks for Cashner to pitch in the Padres' rotation full-time, but he makes for a smart stash in NL-only leagues and even some deeper mixed formats. Those in shallow leagues can afford to wait and see.

Holland Hits DL

Derek Holland's velocity has dropped in recent starts, something the young left-hander attributes to a stomach virus which has caused him to lose 10-15 pounds over the past couple of weeks. However, the Rangers aren't taking any chances.

Holland was placed on the 15-day disabled list Thursday with left shoulder fatigue. He's scheduled to be examined by Dr. Keith Meister on Friday, during which he will undergo a battery of tests to get to the root of the problem and formulate a gameplan on how to move forward.

Holland took a huge step forward after the All-Star break last year and delivered on the big stage by tossing 8 1/3 shutout innings in Game 4 of the World Series against the Cardinals, but he's had a rough start to his 2012 campaign. The 25-year-old left-hander has a 5.10 ERA and 59/24 K/BB ratio over 67 innings. He averaged just 91.1 mph on his fastball during his most recent start on Tuesday and topped out at 93.7 mph. He averaged 94.2 mph on his heater last year.

Roy Oswalt is still a couple starts away from joining the Rangers, so Alexi Ogando will take Holland's place in the starting rotation Sunday against the Giants. The 28-year-old right-hander has operated in a set-up role this season, posting a 2.27 ERA and 33/7 K/BB ratio over 31 2/3 innings, so he's unlikely to go any further than about five innings or 70 pitches initially. However, after the success he enjoyed as a starter last year, he's worth a stash in most formats at this point.

NL Quick Hits: Aroldis Chapman finally gave up an earned run Thursday against the Pirates, ending his scoreless streak of 29 innings this year and 35 innings dating back to last September … Bryce Harper has been receiving treatment on his lower back, but fully expects to play Friday against the Red Sox … R.A. Dickey tossed 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Nationals on Thursday while Lance Lynn allowed two runs over six innings in a blowout win over the Astros. Both pitchers are tied for the major-league lead with nine wins … The Cardinals placed Jaime Garcia on the disabled list Thursday with a left shoulder sprain and he's expected to get a second opinion on the injury Friday … Melky Cabrera left Thursday's game with a sore hamstring, but is expected to play Friday … Michael Bourn hit his sixth home run of the season Thursday against the Marlins, establishing a new career-high … Santiago Casilla (knee) returned to action Thursday against the Padres and got four outs for his 15th save … Chipper Jones (calf) will begin a brief minor league rehab assignment Saturday with Class A Rome … Jason Heyward homered twice in Thursday's win over the Marlins … X-rays on Freddie Freeman's injured left finger revealed no fracture … Stephen Drew (ankle) went 1-for-4 while playing nine innings at shortstop Thursday in his first rehab game with Triple-A Reno … Aramis Ramirez (quad) was out of the starting lineup for the fifth straight game Thursday, but was intentionally walked in a pinch-hit appearance … Lucas Duda hit his 10th home run in Thursday's win over the Nationals, matching his total from all of last year … David Freese clubbed a pair of homers in Thursday's blowout win over the Astros … Jason Bay sat out his second straight game Thursday due to illness, but is expected to play in Friday's series opener against the Yankees … Kris Medlen fired five shutout frames Thursday in his second start with Triple-A Gwinnett … The Astros officially signed 2012 No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa …

AL Quick Hits: Jacoby Ellsbury (shoulder) is playing catch and has progressed to 40 throws … Edwin Encarnacion (hand) hit off a tee Thursday and is expected to return to the lineup Friday … Yu Darvish was tagged for six runs over 5 1/3 innings in Thursday's loss to the A's and now leads the majors with 44 walks in 72 2/3 innings … Carl Crawford (elbow, wrist) plans to begin a throwing program Friday … Austin Jackson (abdomen) began a rehab assignment Thursday and is likely to return from the disabled list on Saturday or Sunday … Brett Gardner (elbow) is scheduled to begin a minor league rehab assignment Friday with Low-A Charleston … Roy Oswalt was knocked around for five runs over four innings Thursday in his second minor league tuneup. All five runs scored in the third inning, the big blow of which was a grand slam by Royals' prospect Wil Myers … Yoenis Cespedes left Thursday's game with a left hamstring strain, but the A's are optimistic he will not require a stint on the disabled list … The bad Brian Matusz showed up Thursday against the Red Sox, as he gave up five runs (four earned) on four hits and five walks over just two innings … Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine indicated Thursday that Josh Beckett's right hamstring cramp is not a legitimate concern … Brandon McCarthy tossed seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Rangers on Thursday afternoon … Chris Iannetta (wrist) is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment Friday with High-A Inland Empire … John Danks (shoulder) is set to make a rehab start next Tuesday with Triple-A Charlotte … Daniel Bard is scheduled to throw one inning Friday in his first appearance with Triple-A Pawtucket … Rajai Davis was scratched from Thursday's lineup with a jammed middle finger on his left hand …

 

[HacheMan]

Trusting Liriano
Fantasy owners who drafted Francisco Liriano this year with hopes of a rebound have been gravely disappointed. After dominating in spring training, the perplexing southpaw was atrocious in the early going, earning himself a demotion to the bullpen by early May.

The problem, as it was last year when he went 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA, has been a lack of control. Over his first six starts Liriano issued 19 walks (against 21 strikeouts) in 26 2/3 innings. Many owners abandoned ship.

He wasn't exactly stellar during a short stint in the bullpen and his return to the rotation was based more on necessity than merit, but Liriano has been exquisite in two turns since assuming starting duties once again, allowing just one run on seven hits over 12 innings while striking out 17 and walking only three.

So, can Liriano once again be trusted? I'm not ready to go there yet. His successful outings came against Oakland and Kansas City, two of the worst offenses in baseball. After his maddeningly ineffective performances over the first two months, he'll need to keep it going against better lineups in order to regain his status as a reliable fantasy option.

In the upcoming week, he'll face the Phillies and Brewers, both at home*. Those aren't exactly powerhouse offenses, but they're a notch above the Royals and A's, so it should be a suitable challenge. I've got him listed as a "Decent Play," but considering the dearth of two-start options this week – with every team in baseball playing only six games – owners may be inclined to give him a shot.

(*UPDATE: It appears that since the Twins sent down Cole DeVries they plan to keep Liriano on regular rest and have him pitch Sunday rather than Tuesday, meaning he will NOT be a two-start pitcher this week. Nick Blackburn will pitch twice for the Twins instead and is not a recommended play. Liriano does merit consideration as a streamer for his Friday start against the Brewers. Thanks to reader Dan for the heads-up.)

Going Twice…

American League

Strong Plays

Brandon Morrow: WAS (Jackson), PHI (Kendrick)
Colby Lewis: ARI (Kennedy), HOU (Norris)
Felix Hernandez: SD (Richard), SF (Bumgarner)
Josh Beckett: @MIA (Johnson), @CHC (Maholm)

Decent Plays

Alex Cobb: NYM (Young), MIA (Johnson)
Bartolo Colon: @COL (Guthrie), SD (Richard)
Garrett Richards: @LAD (Capuano), ARI (Kennedy)
Max Scherzer: @CHC (Maholm), COL (Guthrie)
Jose Quintana: @STL (Wainwright), @LAD (Capuano)
Wei-Yin Chen: @PIT (Burnett), @ATL (Delgado)

At Your Own Risk

Ivan Nova: @ATL (Delgado), @WAS (Jackson)
Jeanmar Gomez: @CIN (Cueto), PIT (Burnett)
Nick Blackburn: PHI (Kendrick), MIL (Greinke)

National League

Strong Plays

Adam Wainwright: CWS (Quintana), KC
Madison Bumgarner: HOU (Norris), @SEA (Hernandez)
Zack Greinke: @KC, @MIN (Liriano)
Josh Johnson: BOS (Beckett), @TB (Cobb)
Chris Capuano: LAA (Richards), CWS (Quintana)
Johnny Cueto: CLE (Gomez), @NYM (Yong)

Decent Plays

Edwin Jackson: @TOR (Morrow), NYY (Nova)
Clayton Richard: @SEA (Hernandez), @OAK (Colon)
Chris Young: @TB (Cobb), CIN (Cueto)
Bud Norris: @SF (Bumgarner), @TEX (Lewis)
Randall Delgado: NYY (Nova), BAL (Chen)
Ian Kennedy: @TEX (Lewis), @LAA (Richards)

At Your Own Risk

Kyle Kendrick: @MIN (Liriano), @TOR (Morrow)
Jeremy Guthrie: OAK (Colon), @DET (Scherzer)
Paul Maholm: DET (Scherzer), BOS (Beckett)
<!--RW-->
Streamer City

The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 6/13: Brian Matusz vs. PIT
Matusz has rattled off four straight quality starts and was dominant against the Rays in his most recent outing.

Wednesday, 6/13: Hector Noesi vs. SD
He was knocked around in his most recent start but Noesi owns a 3.62 ERA at Safeco so a home start against one of the league's worst offenses could be just what the doctor ordered.

Friday, 6/15: Scott Diamond vs. MIL
The young lefty has been too good to ignore, especially at home where he's 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

National League

Wednesday, 6/13: J.A. Happ @ SF
The lefty is rocking a 23/6 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings over his past three starts.

Thursday, 6/14: Alex White vs. OAK
White has pitched better at home than on the road and should be able to handle Oakland's weak lineup.

Friday, 6/15: Michael Fiers @ MIN
The rookie has shown some strikeout proficiency in his first couple starts. He should fare well in Target Field.

Total Games

American League

6: BAL, BOS, CLE, CWS, DET, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR

National League

6: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, COL, HOU, LAD, MIA, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS

Lefty/Righty Breakdowns

American League

BAL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
BOS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CLE: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
CWS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
DET: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
KC: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAA: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIN: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
NYY: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
OAK: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
SEA: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TB: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TEX: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TOR: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
ATL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CIN: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
COL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
HOU: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAD: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIA: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
NYM: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
PHI: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
PIT: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SD: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SF: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
STL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
WAS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP

The Infirmary

You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page (http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/teams/injuries/mlb/all/) but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:

Nick Markakis: Out until late June (wrist)
Juan Nicasio: Out indefinitely (knee)
Alex Avila: Out until late June (hamstring)
Carl Pavano: Out indefinitely (shoulder)
Eric Stults: Out until July (back)
Jaime Garcia: Out indefinitely (elbow)
Derek Holland: Out until late June (shoulder)