MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

What's wrong with Adrian Gonzalez?

Eric Karabell

I've disagreed with quite a few moves made by Boston Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine and his organization this season, but I have no problem whatsoever with first baseman Adrian Gonzalez playing a few interleague road tilts in right field at Philadelphia this weekend, and perhaps beyond. Gonzalez started two games in right field last season, and believe it or not, the game of baseball didn't cease right there. Gonzalez didn't get hurt or embarrass himself. He even managed a few hits in those games.




Those who own Gonzalez in a fantasy league, whether daily or weekly, can rest assured their top-20 player will be out there so that David Ortiz, the team's regular designated hitter, can get into the game. This is good news all around, well, unless you own the guy who gets benched, be it Cody Ross or Ryan Sweeney. Ortiz enters Friday at No. 12 overall on ESPN's Player Rater, off to his best start in years, and for those in non-ESPN formats that allow eligibility for one game (or perhaps three at some point soon), Ortiz will become more versatile for you. This is a good thing.


<offer>It's also a good thing that Chicago White Sox first baseman Adam Dunn should be manning left field at Wrigley Field this weekend, Michael Young of the Texas Rangers will be somewhere in the infield, and Jesus Montero will continue his quest for 20 games behind the plate in Denver (though that 20-game plateau is nearly a given at this point). Interleague play is fun for me, and it's nice to see managers thinking a bit out of the box. There's no reason why Ortiz can't handle first base for a few games, and Dunn won't fall apart at the plate when's not in the DH role, either.</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>The bigger story, when it comes to Gonzalez, is not that he's trading in his first baseman's mitt for an outfielder's glove, but that he hasn't homered in a month, and his current .756 OPS is 201 points below last season's figure. After all, Gonzalez hit "only" 27 home runs in his debut season with the Red Sox, though he did post career highs in batting average, hits, runs scored and on-base percentage. Earlier this week, I placed Gonzalez 14th in the ESPN Fantasy mid-May rankings, and the group had him 15th, showing that we're not particularly concerned. But should we be? Is Gonzalez really a superior buy-low option when compared with the likes of Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista?</offer>


It's still only six weeks, and given my patient attitude, I certainly am not ready to give up on Gonzalez any time soon, but I have to admit there are a few red flags here to keep in mind. The fact that he's 89th in OPS among 179 batting title qualifiers serves as a reminder that we're only six weeks into the season, and talent generally prevails, but perhaps Gonzalez isn't the player you think he is. No, he's not going to finish worse on the Player Rater among first basemen than Mitch Moreland, Daniel Murphy and Chris Davis (an infielder who famously struck him out a few weeks ago), as he is now. But he does need to flirt with 30 home runs to retain his second-round value, since hitting .338 isn't assured, he's not a base stealer and first base is fantasy's deepest offensive position.


Gonzalez underwent right shoulder surgery prior to joining the Red Sox and recently admitted he battled tendinitis last season. And while he's still a terrific hitter, it's possible this is still sapping his power. Gonzalez hit a healthy portion of his home runs with the San Diego Padres to the opposite field, and in Boston there's a 37-foot wall in the way. Gonzalez still hits the ball to left field, but in a small sample size for 2012, he's not getting results. Gonzalez has nine doubles at Fenway Park this season, a few of them to left field, and one home run. He also has just one home run on the road. I can't blame his problems on the ballpark. I think it has to be the shoulder.


Gonzalez notably had 16 home runs and 86 RBIs at the All-Star break last season but was more ordinary in the second half. The 11 post-ASB home runs aren't bad -- many players will take that over a three-month period -- but his OPS dropped off 113 points. It was still .893, above his career mark, but it's tough to call a first baseman hitting 11 home runs and knocking in 31 for any three-month period elite enough to be a second-round fantasy pick, unless he's hitting .330 or stealing many bases. I'm not saying he's Freddie Freeman or Adam LaRoche, but your bounce-back expectations might be too high for him.


This season, Gonzalez is hitting a respectable .273, but his walk rate is down and his strikeout rate is up. Gonzalez is on pace for nine home runs and 85 RBIs. Complain about Pujols and Bautista all you want -- and fantasy owners certainly have -- but Gonzalez deserves scrutiny as well. After hitting more ground balls than ever last season, Gonzalez is back to hitting fly balls, but they're landing in outfielder's gloves. And if you're looking for some crazy-low BABIP to explain all this, that figure is at .328, above his career mark.


I think Gonzalez will still hit more than 20 home runs, which means a pace for roughly six per month. When he has been at the plate, he has enjoyed the 16th-most baserunners, and he has converted a strong 17 percent into runs, which is above league average. He's going to knock in 100 runs, and he's going to hit .300, but that still won't be enough to make him a top-20 fantasy option and return your value, unless he outperforms those numbers. I'm still buying low here because things will improve, but Gonzalez might not be the fellow we all thought he was, no matter which position he's playing.

 

[HacheMan]

Top 12 for '12: Myers jumps to No. 1

By Kevin Goldstein | Baseball Prospectus

Note: The top 12 fantasy prospects (players currently in the minor leagues) for 2012 are below. These rankings are a bit different from other prospect rankings; these are strictly for 2012 fantasy purposes. So not only do talent and recent performance play a role in the rankings, but potential paths to the big leagues also factor in. In addition, all young players in the minors are eligible, including those in "prospect purgatory" -- those who have exceeded rookie status but are still young and unproven commodities.




1. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals (Last week: unranked)




<offer>Last week's stats (at Double-A Northwest Arkansas/Triple-A Omaha): 8-for-22 (.364), 2 HR, 6 RBIs
Season totals: .345-13-31, 4 SB in 36 games
Update: No. 1 with a bullet! Myers was tearing up the Texas League, hitting home runs in five of six games at one point while hitting .343-13-30 in 35 games, but considering he wasn't on the Royals' 40-man roster and was sitting at Double-A, and with the Royals not expected to contend, Myers didn't look like much more than a September call-up. Then came Thursday's promotion to Triple-A, an indication that the Royals might be thinking much sooner than that.
What he can do: One of the best pure hitters in the minors, Myers combines an excellent approach at the plate with a lightning-quick bat and rapidly developing power. He's not a runner, but he has everything it takes to be a middle-of-the-order impact bat.</offer>



2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 6)

Last week's stats (at Double-A Mobile): 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 9 K's
Season totals: 7-1, 1.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 48 1/3 IP, 60 K's
Update: The outstanding starting-pitching trio of Bauer, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs at Double-A Mobile is no longer, as Corbin is in the big leagues and Bauer was moved up to Triple-A Reno on Thursday. That tells you everything you need to know about which one is next to the big leagues.
What he can do: Bauer has the stuff to miss big league bats right now, but the question is how deep he can pitch into games, as his walk rate borders on unacceptable, and he often hits the 100-pitch mark in the fifth or sixth innings.



3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs (Last week's rank: 7)




Last week's stats (at Triple-A Iowa): 10-for-24 (.417), 4 HR, 6 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .359-14-39, 2 SB in 38 games
Update: Yes, it would be difficult to find playing time for Rizzo right now, but with interleague play starting up, Bryan LaHair can temporarily move to a designated hitter role in road games, and then a corner outfield slot once pitchers need to hit again. It's complicated, but it's also getting close to the time when Rizzo simply needs to be with the big club.
What he can do: Rizzo has made adjustments to the "loop" in his swing, which led to his big league struggles in 2011. He's looking more and more ready to hit big league pitching, and his time is coming.



4. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 2)




Last week's stats (at Double-A Tulsa): 10-for-28 (.357), HR, 5 RBIs
Season totals: .302-2-22 in 40 games
Update: Last week I wrote that Arenado is just one hot streak away from getting the call to Colorado. Well, the streak hasn't happened yet, but he's starting to get back on pace.
What he can do: Arenado is one of the best pure hitters in the minors. He has great hands, plenty of bat speed and is exceedingly difficult to strike out. There is an open debate regarding his power potential, but for now, he doesn't show much power in games.



5. Shelby Miller, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week: unranked)




Last week's stats (at Triple-A Memphis): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 4-2, 3.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 40 1/3 IP, 48 K's
Update: Miller is the top pitching prospect in the Cardinals' system and one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the minors. His stuff was a bit off during spring training, but he's beginning to find his groove at Memphis, getting his fastball back into the mid-90s to go with his plus curve. He's also throwing more strikes. It's strange to think that the weak link in the Cardinals' rotation right now is Adam Wainwright, but no team can get through a year with just five starters. Chris Carpenter also is expected back at some point this season, but no timetable has been set for his return.
What he can do: Miller has the potential to be a No. 2 starter in his prime and have some big league success right away, including the ability to win games with a good Cardinals team.



6. Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres (Last week's rank: 1)




Last week's stats (at Double-A San Antonio/Triple-A Tucson): 3-for-9 (.333)
Season totals: .271-6-17 in 35 games
Update: We've been promising a shakeup in San Diego in this space for a few weeks now, and it began Thursday with Orlando Hudson getting jettisoned from the roster and Everth Cabrera returning to the big leagues. To go with that, Gyorko was promoted to Triple-A, which is an indication that his time could be coming soon.
What he can do: Gyoko has the ability to hit at any level, and while he should be a doubles machine, don't expect too much power from him, although he does have enough strength to reach double digits in the home run department.



7. Danny Hultzen, SP, Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)




Last week's stats (at Double-A Jackson): 14 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 10 K's
Season totals: 4-3, 1.81 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 44 2/3 IP, 44 K's
Update: After some strange control issues for one of the minors' top strike-throwers, Hultzen has reeled off two of his best starts of the season. The Mariners' rotation has its share of weaknesses, with both Kevin Millwood and Blake Beavan potentially expendable to get Hultzen slotted in.
What he can do: While Hultzen doesn't have the upside of many 2011 draftees, he's the most polished and the most big league-ready. Many scouts think he's ready to fill a back-end rotation slot right now, with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter, but few see stardom.



8. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Kansas City Royals (Last week: unranked)

Last week's stats (at Double-A Northwest Arkansas): 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K's
Season totals: 4-2, 3.32, 0.97 WHIP, 38 IP, 47 K's
Update: The Myers promotion was a mild surprise, but the Odorizzi promotion gave us even more to read into. Acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke deal, Odorizzi has slowly advanced to the point where he is now the top pitching prospect in the system, and if anyone needs pitching help, it's the Royals.
What he can do: Odorizzi is an ultra-athletic right-hander with two plus pitches (fastball, curve), and he has harnessed his delivery and is throwing more strikes than ever. He's close to big league-ready and has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter with a capability of being an All-Star in his prime.



9. David Cooper, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (Last week's rank: 10)





Last week's stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 2-for-20 (.100)
Season totals: .294-4-28 in 36 games
Update: While Cooper's bat has cooled a bit, the biggest news for him came Thursday afternoon when the Blue Jays sent down incumbent first baseman Adam Lind. Yan Gomes got the first call because he can play third base while Brett Lawrie serves his suspension, but general manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated new moves will occur when Lawrie returns, while specifically mentioning Cooper as a candidate.
What he can do: Cooper is a pure-average hitter who gets on base but doesn't have the kind of power normally associated with the position. As for his steals potential, not only does he not steal bases -- he's exceedingly slow.



10. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 5)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Columbus): 5-for-16 (.313), 2 HR, 4 RBIs
Season totals: .333-11-25 in 34 games
Update: This is the spot each week in which I tell you that Casey Kotchman isn't hitting and LaPorta is. Keep an eye on news out of Cleveland this weekend; if Travis Hafner's hand injury turns out to be more serious than initially expected, it could lead to LaPorta's return.
What he can do: LaPorta continues to mash in the International League. Sure, we've seen this act before, and it's yet to translate against big league pitching, but he's still just 27 years old. And even after a hot week, Casey Kotchman is hitting .207 with a .614 OPS.



11. Corey Brown, OF, Washington Nationals (Last week: unranked)




Last week's stats (at Triple-A Syracuse): 12-for-26 (.462), 3 HR, 8 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .286-7-18, 6 SB in 41 games
Update: With Bryce Harper and Tyler Moore having gotten their shots in Washington, Brown might be close behind. Acquired from Oakland in the Josh Willingham deal prior to the 2011 season, Brown has consistently made up for a high strikeout rate with power, patience and a bit of speed, and he's now arguably the hottest hitter in the International League. His ability to play all the outfield positions could get him a look.
What he can do: It's unlikely Brown will ever hit for a high average, but he still has plenty of fantasy potential, with enough power and speed to threaten 20/20 status if he gets a full season of at-bats.



12. Manuel Banuelos, SP, New York Yankees (Last week: unranked)





Last week's stats (at Triple-A Reno): 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 7 K's
Season totals: 0-2, 3.15, 1.60 WHIP, 20 IP, 17 K's
Update: Banuelos hit the disabled list because of a back strain after walking six over just two innings in his second start of the season, but he has returned and put together the best run of his career in terms of control, reeling off 14 2/3 innings without issuing a walk and allowing just one earned run. The biggest problem for now is that he's in an organization with a history of not trusting its own prospects.
What he can do: Banuelos uses his low-90s plus fastball to set up the best changeup in the system, and when he's throwing strikes, he has the ability to plow through a lineup. His ceiling is that of a No. 3 starter, and if he keeps throwing strikes, he's nearly there.



Bonus round: Everyone needs catching





For many fantasy players in two-catcher leagues, catching is just a position to fill. If you don't get two of the big names early, chances are you end up looking at the backstops that will hurt you the least. With that in mind, here are three names to keep an eye on who could provide rare production for the position.

Travis D'Arnaud, Blue Jays (at Triple-A Las Vegas): Last year's Eastern League MVP got off to a surprisingly slow start, but he's beginning to find his stroke, with a .277-4-15 line in 33 games. He has the potential to hit .275 with 20 home runs in the big leagues and could force the Jays to make some tough decisions next spring.


Derek Norris, Athletics (at Triple-A Sacramento) Acquired from the Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez trade, Norris has both power and patience, but he has surprised with his hitting ability as well in the Pacific Coast League, hitting .305-4-25 in 34 games. Kurt Suzuki could be trade bait in July, making Norris a very attractive midseason pickup.


Gary Sanchez, Yankees (at low-A Charleston): Just 19 years old, Sanchez is more of a long-term play, but he has as much offensive potential as any catching prospect in the game, and is batting .325-2-16 in 31 games for Low-A Charleston. The only question is that, much like former Yankee catching prospect Jesus Montero, he has a long way to go defensively.

 

[HacheMan]

Bad News for Berkman?

Lance Berkman just returned from the disabled list a week ago after missing 20 games with a calf injury. He’s now back on it and might be out of the picture even longer this time around.



The 36-year-old injured his right knee while reaching awkwardly for a throw at first base in Saturday’s loss to the Dodgers, and although it won’t be confirmed until an MRI is performed Monday, the early word is that he may have torn his ACL. (Update: Joe Stauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Berkman has indeed been tentatively diagnosed with a torn ACL. He'll undergo a Monday MRI to confirm.)



The Cardinals have great depth on offense, but it will be tested with Berkman, Allen Craig (hamstring) and Jon Jay (shoulder) all missing from one of the game’s most potent lineups. Replacing Berkman on the roster will be Matt Adams, who is one of the better first base prospects in the game. The hefty left-handed swinger batted a robust .300/.357/.566 with 32 homers last season on his way to winning Texas League Player of the Year Honors, and he’s picked up right where he left off this year, hitting .340/.375/.603 with nine bombs at Triple-A Memphis. Adams, who went 2-for-4 at the plate in his debut Sunday, should be owned in all fantasy leagues.



More Shoulder Problems for McCarthy



Brandon McCarthy appeared to have shaken off his shoulder woes from earlier this month when he fired seven shutout innings while striking out 10 in his first start back. As it turns out, though, his shoulder was an issue for him again in his following start, and it’s landed him on the disabled list.



The good news with McCarthy is that an MRI showed no damage to his scapula, which is the problem he had exactly one year ago to the day that also led him to the DL. Because of this, the 28-year-old right-hander doesn’t think the ailment is serious and he plans on being ready when his 15 days are up. The bad news is that this is latest in a long history of shoulder issues for McCarthy, so expecting him to be good to go in a couple weeks is probably unrealistic.



McCarthy did return to pitch very well after missing six weeks of action last year, so perhaps he can do it again. It’s obviously no safe bet, though. The A’s will recall Fantasy owners have been itching to see what Chapman had no trouble nailing down his first save chance Sunday, retiring the Yankees in order while recording one strikeout. The Cuban import has yet to give up an earned run this season, and he sports a microscopic 0.63 WHIP and 39/7 K/BB ratio over 22 1/3 innings.



We have no doubt that Chapman will have plenty of success in the ninth inning for the Reds, as he’s nearly unhittable now that he’s got his control in order. But, the more success he has in the closer role, the less likely it will be that he’ll move into the rotation down the line. We’d still love to see what he could do pitching every fifth day.



​

National League Quick Hits:

Vance Worley has been diagnosed with a bone chip in his right elbow that will likely require offseason surgery. He’ll attempt to pitch through the ailment for now … Cubs manager Dale Sveum said he will talk to team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer about Anthony Rizzo getting a June call-up. Rizzo boasted a .353/.418/.706 batting line with 14 homers and 39 RBI at Triple-A Iowa going into Sunday’s action … Mets manager Terry Collins seems to be warming to the idea of sending Ike Davis down the minors in order to get going. He could be shipped out when Jason Bay (rib) returns … Emilio Bonifacio has landed on the DL with a sprained thumb. We’ll have a better idea how long the speedster will be out once the MRI results are revealed … Cory Luebke is leaning towards Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow and could have the procedure as soon as this week … Mired in a 2-for-31 slide at the plate, Dee Gordon will receive a few days off to recharge his batteries … Jeremy Hefner will step into the Mets rotation with Miguel Batista (back) going on the DL … Mark Ellis will miss at least six weeks after undergoing a fasciotomy to relieve pressure in his left leg. Doctors said he actually might have needed an amputation if they had waited a few hours longer … Jonathan Lucroy went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs and seven RBI in Sunday’s 16-4 rout over the Twins. He now sports an impressive .342/.389/.550 line for the season … American League Quick Hits: Vernon Wells is expected to land on the DL with a thumb injury. It likely means more playing time for Peter Bourjos … ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the Indians and Phillies are keeping an eye on Kevin Youkilis as they look for an offensive upgrade. Youkilis, who is due back from the DL Tuesday, could be expendable with Will Middlebrooks’ emergence … Max Scherzer whiffed an MLB season-high 15 batters Sunday against the Pirates. The righty is streaky, so now is probably a good time to buy low if you can … Hideki Matsui is expected to join the Rays sometime this week. He'll give Joe Maddon an option in left field while Desmond Jennings (knee) is out and could also see the occasional start in the DH slot. Jennings is expected back on or around May 27, though, the first day he’s eligible to be activated from the disabled list … Daisuke Matsuzaka (elbow) received a cortisone shot Sunday in his right trapezius muscle. He’ll have his rehab clock reset … Brett Gardner (elbow) won't be allowed to pick up a bat until Thursday. His recovery is going much slower than expected and he should be considered out indefinitely … Manny Ramirez was scratched from Triple-A Sacramento’s lineup Sunday due to a sore wrist, but he’s expected to be back in there Monday. Barring a setback, he should still join the A’s on May 30 … Evan Longoria might be ahead of schedule in his recovery from a hamstring injury. He had been slated to return in late June, but that timetable might be pushed up a bit … Austin Jackson (abdomen) may not be able to return to action by Tuesday. The Tigers are still considering him day-to-day, but the DL will have to be considered before long.​

 

[HacheMan]

Aroldis Chapman a major trade target

Eric Karabell

In a season in which so many closers have lost their roles due to injury or performance, it seems silly to promise that Cincinnati Reds left-hander Aroldis Chapman is going to pile on the saves and be a top-10 option -- or better -- the rest of the season. Then again, few relief pitchers possess the strikeout upside of the Cuban defector, and now that Reds manager Dusty Baker seems to have wisely chosen Chapman as his closer, it's clear he's not only a must-own option, but someone to target in a trade.


<offer></offer>Entering Sunday, Chapman was owned in 93.3 percent of ESPN standard leagues, but sans any saves, as left-hander Sean Marshall had been handling closing duties. Marshall wasn't pitching particularly well, but it's folly to presume he cannot handle closing. He's a good pitcher, regardless of what inning it is, and part of the reason he lost the job is because Chapman is who he is, and was pitching so well. Plus, if you believe the ninth inning is different and that's why Marshall was struggling (I certainly don't), then to be fair we still don't know for sure if Chapman can handle closing long-term. He is, however, a supremely skilled pitcher.


Baker announced after Saturday's game, in which Marshall struggled and right-hander Jose Arredondo was summoned for the surprise two-out save in Yankee Stadium, that he would be going with a committee for the ninth inning. Of course, Baker also said Chapman wouldn't pitch Sunday, since he had appeared in games on three of the previous four days. Well, so much for that plan. Chapman closed out Sunday's game for career save No. 2. There should be many more this season. This doesn't figure to be a committee if Chapman continues to thrive.

Chapman has been outstanding this season, dominating hitters and leading the big leagues in wins above replacement (WAR) among relief pitchers. He still hasn't permitted an earned run. His WHIP is 0.63. He's on pace for 73 appearances, 89 1/3 innings, 28 hits, 28 walks and 158 strikeouts, and now he's earning saves, too. Frankly, noting Chapman has merely top-10 closer potential doesn't scratch the surface. He could be the best if he keeps pitching this way. For perspective: To most people, Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is the best for fantasy purposes, and last season he posted a 2.10 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 127 strikeouts, the latter figure easily the best for a relief pitcher. Chapman is on pace to destroy that last number.


I want to be positive here and not think about Baker's notable prior history -- or is it Prior? -- of handling pitchers. We all got a final reminder this past weekend when strikeout monster Kerry Wood, once upon a time a force in Baker's rotation in Chicago, retired after years of arm issues and perhaps abuse. Chapman could still have a future as a starting pitcher, too, and while he's been handled properly this season, it's worth noting he is among the league leaders in games and innings, and he has pitched four of the past five days. It would be very surprising if Chapman appears in Monday's game against Kimbrel's Braves, which is scheduled to be telecast on ESPN. Arredondo is likely next in line.


Rather than focus on the inherent risk, there are ample positives. Chapman has dominated this season. The control issues that plagued him in 2011, when he walked 41 hitters in 50 innings, appear to be gone. Opposing batters are hitting a meek .099 off him, with only one of the seven hits going for extra bases. Left-handed batters have drawn one walk against him in 31 plate appearances. Chapman is worth owning even if the Reds do an about-face and make him a starter next week (which they won't), or decide the former Los Angeles Angels setup man Arredondo -- himself thriving this season with a 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 100-strikeout pace -- will get frequent save chances, as well (not likely).


Look for Chapman to get most of the save opportunities, likely at least 30 of them the rest of the way. In deeper leagues, though, Arredondo looks like a wise handcuff, probably over Marshall at this point. It's not often that a manager's backup closer is also left-handed. As for Marshall, perhaps he'll become less hittable and return to being the terrific setup man he was in 2011 for the Chicago Cubs. Marshall does have 21 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he found his way back into save chances this season, as well. For now, though, feel free to drop him in standard leagues for help elsewhere.

 

[HacheMan]

Be wary of one-game wonders

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

We've finally hit an important milestone in the season for weekly points leagues.


If you've been a regular reader to this column, you've probably noticed that, so far, the Top 100 rankings have seen incredible fluctuations from week to week. It may have seemed strange to have a list in which players have gone from not being ranked at all right into the top 20, but there was a method to the madness.



What we try to accomplish with these rankings is to show you more than just which players have tallied the most points in ESPN standard scoring. You can certainly figure that out on your own. But in a scoring system in which you start from scratch each week, what you need to have added to the mix is consistency.



Because we thin slice the statistical universe so much in a weekly league, it takes time to build up enough of a body of work to be able to assert with any confidence going forward that a player, barring injury, can be counted on for a certain amount of production. We've finally reached that point in the season, and this week's rankings, with no new entries in the top 65, are our clearest snapshot so far of what to expect going forward.


It's important, because until now there was very little supporting evidence to try to convince you not to overreact to a player who had one good game. But we've seen enough at-bats now that if a player has one amazing day, we don't necessarily have to spend our entire FAAB just to reach for him after he's already experienced what will likely be his best game of the season.


Case in point, Jonathan Lucroy went 3-for-5 with two home runs on Sunday, including a grand slam, and ended up with 19 fantasy points. His ownership totals in ESPN leagues have risen 15.2 percent over the past seven days, a good portion likely coming as a direct result of that single outing.




TOP 100 OVERALL PLAYERS

Note: AJ Mass' top 100 overall players are ranked based on statistics that have already been accrued in ESPN standard points formats and should be used as a supplement to the ESPN Player Rater.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, SP, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, SP, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, OF, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, DH, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, SP, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, 3B, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, RP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, OF, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, SP, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, OF, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, OF, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, 1B, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, SP, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, SP, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, SS, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, RP, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, SP, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Aviles, SS, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, SP, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, SP, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, OF, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, SP, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, SP, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, SP, SEA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Reddick, OF, OAK </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, OF, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, OF, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, SS, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, SP, HOU </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, OF, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, OF, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, SP, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, SP, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, OF, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, SP, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, SP, ARI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, 2B, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, SP, CHC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, DH, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, OF, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam LaRoche, 1B, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Westbrook, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Lowe, SP, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, 1B, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, C, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, OF, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, OF, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Markakis, OF, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Raul Ibanez, OF, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, C/1B, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Pierzynski, C, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, RP, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr></tbody></table>




Certainly, there's no doubt that solid game improved Lucroy's overall stock, but in terms of a consistency rank, he only leapfrogged ahead of Matt Wieters among catchers. He didn't automatically catapult into the overall Top 100. A few weeks ago, it very well might have.


But while picking up a surging player such as Lucroy might well be a good decision to make, if he's an upgrade over a slumping catcher you currently have, it's very important to not jump to conclusions on any player just because the last box score you checked looked promising.



Consider Matt Adams of the St. Louis Cardinals. Adams made his major league debut on Sunday, and it went very well. The first baseman, who had been hitting .340 in Triple-A with a 603 slugging percentage, went 2-for-4 with a run scored in his first at-bats against the Los Angeles Dodgers.


That game, combined with the news that Lance Berkman's knee injury might be far more serious than the team first thought, made Adams a popular pickup. In the span of 24 hours, he went from zero percent ownership to 3.5 percent. In one expert league I play in, the FAAB price tag for Adams was $28.


While there's no doubt that Berkman will miss extended time and Adams makes a smooth transition to the majors, he could be well worth the price. But we're still dealing with a single game's results to base this decision on. There's still Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig in the mix. One game means nothing.



If it did, Daniel Descalso, who in that same game went 2-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored and earned more fantasy points than did Adams, should be owned in more than 0.3 percent of fantasy leagues. Of course, that's not the reality of the situation. But we only know that because we've taken some time to come to that conclusion.


Pointing Up



Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia Phillies: In Chooch's case, in the fifth month it has been all about the number 4. Ruiz has been raking all May long, with a .404 batting average since the calendar page turned. Only four strikeouts with four walks to cancel that negative out completely. Plus, he's hit four home runs, four doubles and been hit by four pitches. The "fourcast" for the future is solid.
Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: Since May 4, Greinke has an ERA of 1.33 with hitters managing to bat just .194 against him. More importantly, he's making his strikes count and fooling batters when he has to. Although only 42.9 percent of his pitches this season (ranked 140th) have been in the strike zone, Greinke ranks 25th in terms of called-strike percentage.
Martin Prado, OF, Atlanta Braves: Prado has reached base safely in 15 straight games and has an OPS of 1.110 over that stretch. He also has thrown in a couple steals to pad those fantasy-point totals. Prado is a prime example that you don't have to be a power hitter to have value in this format. While he ranks just 49th on the Player Rater, he comes in at No. 39 with a bullet on our chart this week.
Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Still a solid pitcher regardless of the role, Jansen is taking advantage of the chance to earn saves -- worth five points apiece -- instead of holds, which are valueless in many scoring systems. As long as he's the go-to guy for Don Mattingly, he's going to be a top-50 fantasy option going forward in points leagues. It's all about opportunity.
Mike Aviles, SS, Boston Red Sox: His latest hot streak is quite impressive. Over the past week, he has hit .400 with three home runs and scored 30 fantasy points. It should be noted that Aviles has been a yo-yo all season, with good weeks following the bad and vice versa, but the valleys have not been all that low and, as we've just seen, the peaks can be quite high.
Carlos Zambrano, P, Miami Marlins: In his last start, Zambrano seemed to do everything wrong. He threw only 52 strikes out of 110 pitches. He gave up 14 fly balls, a big red flag as he had been 0-2 in games in which he allowed double-digit flies prior to this start. He walked five hitters and struck out two. Yet, Big Z won the game against the Cleveland Indians and kept his ERA under 2.00 for the year. With one start in which he has allowed more than five hits, he's definitely doing the job for his fantasy owners, even when it looks ugly.
Pointing Down

Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: We're not saying to panic with the King, but when you have a week in which your batting average against is .438 and your ERA is 8.71, that's not the right direction to be headed. Plus, the run support for Hernandez has been spotty at best. In six of his nine starts, the Mariners have scored three or fewer runs, so every time we see his ERA rise above 3.00, we begin to sweat a bit.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees: We knew the correction was coming, and here's where stats can trick you. Though he's hit safely in eight straight games and 11-of-12, his batting average over that stretch is just .271 and his overall average has dropped 50 points. Now throw in only two RBIs since April 24 and a bruised wrist and the writing is clearly on the wall here.
Jake Westbrook, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: Another correction in progress, Westbrook has now allowed home runs in three of his past four starts, with four runs in each of those outings. His strikeouts per nine innings rate has been 6.93 in May, which has done little to help him ameliorate the nine points per game he's losing as a translation of his WHIP. He's still a quality starter when he wins, but he's far from ace status.
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Not every hitter who has a little slump is someone you need to be concerned about, but this last 2-for-19 from Bruce is certainly a little disturbing when you consider that 11 of his 17 outs were strikeouts. He's now one of only 25 players with 11 or more games with two or more whiffs this season. In points leagues, strikeouts are double deadly.
Michael Bourn, OF, Atlanta Braves: We've pretty much established the base line for Bourn on the basepaths. He'll get you two steals a week, and in category-based standings, that a big help. Unfortunately, he'll also strike out seven times a week, all but negated that speed benefit in points leagues. When he has a week like this past one, with a 3-for-19 finish, he's a complete liability.
Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox: It's all about keeping the ball in the park for Floyd. He has an 8.15 ERA in games in which he has allowed a home run. Compare that to just 1.04 in games he does not serve up any round-trippers. The concern comes from his fly balls allowed numbers, which over his past three starts read: 13, 16, 15. It's just a matter of time before the bottom drops out.

 

[HacheMan]

Value of relief

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

So here you are, Sean Marshall owners. Last week at this time, you were probably pretty happy that, despite his pedestrian WHIP and ERA, Marshall was one of the lucky one, a reliever that had benefited from this crazy closer carousel of a season, rather than be undone by it.

Today? Today you feel like you're left with a whole bunch of nothing. The pitching equivalent of the right-handed side of a No. 2 catcher platoon. A middle reliever. Last one to drop him's a rotten egg!


Not so fast, my friend. Marshall likely won't see another save chance for quite some time, but being banished to middle relief doesn't have to be the end of his fantasy value. Sometimes, being stuck in the middle can be good, especially when you've got the ability to strike out hitters in bunches. So today, we are going to put the middle reliever under the microscope.


The middle reliever is a very unique position in fantasy baseball. Many middle relievers often go undrafted not necessarily because of a lack of skills, but because they do not pitch enough to render their skills fantasy worthy. However, if properly deployed, middle relievers can be an extremely effective means of getting the most out of your pitching staff, regardless of your league's size or format.

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Context is everything



While it is true that quality middle relievers can be used in leagues of all shapes and sizes, it is really up to the league rules and size to gauge just how effective they can be. Let's examine both of these factors.


League Size


In general, the value of middle relievers increases as the size and depth of the league increases. The level a pitcher's ERA and WHIP influence your team stats depends on both the ratio and the number of innings. For instance, let's look at Tyler Clippard, one of the top middle relievers in the game. Here is where he ranks in different 5x5 formats. As you can see, the more teams, the higher he is ranked with relation to the rest of the pitchers:


<table><thead><tr><th> LEAGUE </th><th> RANK </th><th> TOTAL </th><th> PERCENTILE </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 10-team mix </td><td> 66 </td><td> 90 </td><td> 27% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12-team mix </td><td> 71 </td><td> 108 </td><td> 34% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 15-team mix </td><td> 74 </td><td> 135 </td><td> 55% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 13-team NL only </td><td> 48 </td><td> 130 </td><td> 63% </td></tr></tbody></table>



How about Mike Adams, one or the top set-up men in the American League:


<table><thead><tr><th> LEAGUE </th><th> RANK </th><th> TOTAL </th><th> PERCENTILE </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 10-team mix </td><td> 80 </td><td> 90 </td><td> 11% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12-team mix </td><td> 92 </td><td> 108 </td><td> 15% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 15-team mix </td><td> 98 </td><td> 135 </td><td> 27% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12-team AL only </td><td> 47 </td><td> 108 </td><td> 56% </td></tr></tbody></table>



League Rules


The extent you will be able to use middle relievers depends on your league rules, regardless of the league size. The two most important factors are innings limits and transaction rules.


Regarding innings limits, the lower the minimum, the more effective the "all-reliever strategy" might be. The intent here is to win the ERA, WHIP and saves category while dismissing wins and strikeouts, using limited assets on pitching and focus on building a juggernaut offense. On the flip side is an innings maximum. Judicious usage of middle relievers can help moderate the ERA and WHIP categories, allowing owners to stream in starting pitchers with favorable matchups.



However, what is often overlooked is in leagues where strikeouts are a category and there is a readily attainable innings cap, the K category is really K/9. If every team reaches the innings limit, the team that wins strikeouts had the best K/9. What this means is regular use of pitchers with subpar K/9 hurts your team. Someone like Mark Buehrle or Tim Hudson may have a great two-start week on tap, but their paucity of punchouts hurts your squad. You need to balance their positive impact in the other categories with your ability to have used someone else to account for those innings. Similarly, a pitcher with an exceptional K/9 takes on even greater value in leagues with an innings maximum. The same principle holds fast for closers. Brandon League, for instance, loses value since his K/9 is rather pedestrian, while Craig Kimbrel is even better than he might be in a league without an innings cap. In leagues with no minimum or maximum, the number of reserves and transaction rules dictate usefulness.


Transaction rules regulate the ease which you can move a player from active to reserve. The fewer restrictions you have, the more useful the middle reliever can be. For example, in leagues will daily moves, populating your lineup with high-strikeout set-up men is a great ploy if you can reserve one the day a starter is scheduled. This assumes you have ample space on a reserve list to rotate middle relievers and starters in and out of your active lineup.


What about wins?



Sorry, but there is no means of preseason analysis that was going to reveal that Robbie Ross would have five wins, one behind the leaders at the quarter pole. However, we can look at reliever wins on a global basis. Below is a chart depicting the number of wins per innings from 2011:


<table><thead><tr><th> Pitcher </th><th> Number </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Starter </td><td> .058 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Reliever </td><td> .051 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Middle Reliever </td><td> .050 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Closer </td><td> .052 </td></tr></tbody></table>




On a per-innings pitched basis, starters accrue more wins than relievers while closers get slightly more wins than the rest of the bullpen. What happens if we filter by K/9, since it has been established that high K/9 arms are favored.
<table><thead><tr><th> Pitcher </th><th> Number </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Middle Reliever >6.0 </td><td> .052 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Middle Reliever >7.0 </td><td> .053 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Middle Reliever >8.0 </td><td> .054 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Middle Reliever >9.0 </td><td> .052 </td></tr></tbody></table>



The good news is the odds of a vulture win increase with a K/9 greater than 8.0, which is what we want to target, but the bad news is it drops above 9.0, at least it did last season. The real take home lesson is your chances of getting wins drop slightly if you compare against the entire populating on starters, but what about applying a similar filter to starting pitchers?


<table><thead><tr><th> Pitcher </th><th> Number </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Starter > 5.0 </td><td> .060 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Starter > 6.0 </td><td> .061 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Starter > 7.0 </td><td> .063 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Starter > 8.0 </td><td> .064 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Starter > 9.0 </td><td> .063 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Oh well, it can't all be good news. If you want wins, you're better of running out a starter with a subpar strikeout rate than stocking your staff with even the most highly skilled relievers. Perhaps Jamie Moyer can stick around a little longer after all.


Fun with math: How much do middle relievers impact ratios



Let's go through several formats with different rules to see how deploying middle relievers may impact the standings. Please realize it is impossible to emulate every league and account for every rule, but by the time we are done, it should be apparent that if you think about how to diligently deploy middle relievers within the context of your league parameters, your ERA and WHIP will be grateful.


Mixed League, Innings Cap, Daily Moves: For the purpose of this exercise, all the math was done by assuming an innings cap of 1,600 with 400 innings of a middle reliever typically available in each format. This may seem like a lot of innings for middle relievers as it corresponds to five or six being active at all times (beyond the closers) but realize the idea here is there is a middle reliever active at all times in each spot except when you have a starter deployed. Under this scenario, 400 innings is a practical target, leaving 1,200 starter innings or roughly 7-8 starts a week.


The experiment was calculating 400 innings of a typical middle reliever and comparing that to 400 innings of a below average starter. The standings were divided into thirds and the impact was looked at for each third. All the gains and losses should be considered +/- 1 to account for the fact average standings are used. Also, it is important to realize that average standings smooth out results. Your league may have gaps in some places while the numbers are bunched in another, so it is always best to actually look at your standings to determine if switching to this strategy midstream will help.


Here are the results:


Middle Reliever

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> +1 </td><td> +1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> +1 </td><td> +1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Below Average Starter

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> -1 </td><td> -1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> -2 </td><td> -2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> -2 </td><td> -2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Net Points

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> +3 </td><td> +3 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> +4 </td><td> +4 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr></tbody></table>



In summary, if you work hard, keeping middle relievers active and taking the time to switch in starters on a daily basis, compared to a lazy me where I look for two-start pitchers when I remember, therefore having to scramble late in the season to get to the innings limit, you are going to score anywhere between four and nine total points than me. However, if I am as diligent as you, but I only use starters and closers for my 1,600 innings, I have spotted you between two and five points. By using middle relievers in daily leagues whenever your starter is not active, you are a plus-2 over anyone not deploying the strategy.


There is one ancillary benefit to using this strategy: picking up some extra saves and sometimes ending up with an unexpected closer. Speaking of which, the fewer teams in the league, the more likely you are to be able to use a third or maybe even fourth closer in lieu of one of the middle relievers. Beware, however, that populating your staff with the likes of Henry Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and Frank Francisco can cost you the points you gained in ERA and WHIP, so make sure you make up for those points in saves while your opponent is sitting comfortably with Vinnie Pestano or Josh Lindblom occupying the active spots.


Mixed League, Innings Cap, Weekly Moves


The difference here is moves are done weekly, so you can't have your middle relievers contributing the days your starters are not scheduled. Assuming you want to maximize your innings, the opportunities to use middle relievers are not as generous, which is why it was noted that the fewer restrictions, the more useful the relievers can be.


By lowering the target innings to 200, the results change, but only if you were headed for the middle to the end of the categories:
Middle Reliever

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 1 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Below Average Starter

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> -1 </td><td> -1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> -1 </td><td> -1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> -1 </td><td> -1 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Net Points

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr>

</tbody></table>



There is still a benefit of about two points. The key here is making sure your relievers are doing the intended job. In the previous example, of the five relievers, two or three were doing as expected, one or two were doing better while a couple were below par, but in total, you were fine. If you only have one or two middle relievers who happen to have an ERA higher than it should be based on their peripherals (like Jared Burton who is sporting a bloated 4.60 ERA despite allowing only 9 hits in only 15.2 innings while fanning 16 and walking only two), you could negate the influence the middle guys should have provided.


Mixed League, No Innings Cap, Weekly Moves


I have purposely decided to leave daily mixed leagues with no innings limit out of the analysis as these are basically a free-for-all, and while stabilizing your staff with relievers can be helpful, ultimately your success is going to boil down to how well you chose your starters. That said, the same one- or two-point cushion is there for you, it is just that determining the number of innings to use in the equations is so variable.


Weekly leagues, however, do allow for a better estimate of target innings, I have done the math but instead of presenting the data, we'll go back to the league size data for Tyler Clippard and Mike Adams above and discuss the results in more anecdotal terms.


The deeper the league, the more useful middle relievers become. The reason is the talent of the pitching inventory does not follow a linear path. The deeper you penetrate into the available starters, the bigger the delta is between pitchers. Perhaps the best way to put it is there is a bigger drop-off between the drafted and non-drafted starting pitchers the more starting pitchers there are on active rosters. Here is a display of the data using 2012 projections. The exact numbers are not as important as the trend.


<table><thead><tr><th> League </th><th> Drafted ERA </th><th> Non-drafted ERA </th><th> Difference </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Mixed league 15 teams or more </td><td> 3.329 </td><td> 3.858 </td><td> 15.90% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Mixed league 14 teams or fewer </td><td> 3.492 </td><td> 4.122 </td><td> 18.05% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> AL/NL 10 teams or more </td><td> 3.590 </td><td> 4.314 </td><td> 20.15% </td></tr></tbody></table>



The streamed pitchers, not to mention injury replacements, come from this reserve pool, which is why middle relievers come in handy, they are the same quality regardless of the league size or format. The worse the quality of pitchers they are replacing, the more impact they exert over the ratios.


The other factor that renders quality middle men more effective bigger the league is more pitchers are active on a roster, so the average number of strikeouts per staff is reduced. However, the strikeouts contributed by the middle relievers remain the same. In practical terms, the smaller the league, the more likely you are to lose strikeout points. So in larger leagues, not only do you enjoy a greater effect from ratios, you are less likely to give it back from strikeouts.


Unfortunately, as was alluded to earlier, unless you get extremely fortunate and luck into this season's Alfredo Aceves, who vultured nine victories from the bullpen last season, you may give back a point or two, depending on the distribution of wins in your standings.


AL- or NL-only, No Innings Cap, Weekly Moves


As you may expect, middle relievers have the most significant impact in the single-league format. Again looking at things from a global basis, where average standings are used, here is a look at the positive influence judicious use of middle relievers in lieu of below average starters may provide:
Middle Reliever

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> -1 </td><td> -2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> +3 </td><td> +3 </td><td> -1 </td><td> -2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> +4 </td><td> +4 </td><td> -1 </td><td> -1 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Below Average Starter

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> -2 </td><td> -2 </td><td> -1 </td><td> -1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> -2 </td><td> -2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> -2 </td><td> -2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Net Points

<table><thead><tr><th> ON PACE </th><th> ERA </th><th> WHIP </th><th> W </th><th> K </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> UPPER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> MIDDLE </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LOWER </td><td> +2 </td><td> +2 </td><td> 0 </td><td> +1 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Perhaps the most interesting message here is the stronger your staff, the less help these relievers are when compared to average starters. That said, what if your staff is strong, but your hitting is weak? According to this data, a very viable strategy would be to deal a good starter to fortify your offense and backfill with a middle reliever instead of another starter just to keep the wins and strikeouts high. You end up giving back more in ratios.


Of course, it needs to be reiterated that everything is dependent upon the distribution of each category within your league's standings. Remember that points can be gained or lost in the ratio categories late in the year. It is, in fact, easier to gain or lose points in ERA and WHIP than the other categories, but that is an experiment for another day.


Enough already, give me some names



Patience, my friend, we just have one more point to cover. In a moment I will list some latent middle relievers you may not know about as well as a handful that appear to be helpful, but looks are deceiving.


When evaluating pitching in general, it is necessary to look past the surface stats like ERA and hits allowed, and focus on the underlying skills, namely K/9, BB/9 and to a lesser extent, HR/9. Since relievers throw so few innings, they are more subject to their end results not being an accurate reflection of how they really pitched, good or bad. Their skills are a much better indicator of future performance than their ERA.


Most everyone knows about Sergio Romo, Mike Adams, Joaquin Benoit and Tyler Clippard. Here are some lesser know or trusted middle relievers who may be available in your league, demonstrating sustainable skills that can help your team.

Tim Collins, Kansas City Royals: His 3.10 ERA is higher than his skills suggest; he's a mid to high 2's guy. His 13.3 K/9 rate will come down, but it will still be in double digits. The 2.7 BB/9 is very low for such a high K-rate, but he has the skills to sustain that level. The diminutive lefty has the added plus of being a candidate for saves if Jonathan Broxton is traded.


Octavio Dotel, Detroit Tigers: Sometimes we forget how good some guys are after they develop a reputation as a failed closer. The fact is, Dotel's skills are elite and some may be scared away by the name and the 3.38 ERA. His expected ERA, based on skills is over a run less. Bank on the K/9 and BB/9 of 11.6/2.6 and ignore the past reputation.


Craig Stammen, Washington Nationals: Last week, I misidentified Stammen as a starting pitcher, so it is only fair I give him props as a strong middle reliever. Since converting to the bullpen full time, Stammen has improved his skills to the tune of a 10.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. There will both regress a bit, but Stammen will continue to be a solid middle man.


Darren O'Day, Baltimore Orioles: O'Day appears fully recovered from the hip surgery that derailed his 2011 campaign with Texas. He is back with vengeance, quietly mowing them down with the O's. His present rate of 20 whiffs to only four walks in 19 2/3 innings will slow somewhat, but the sidewinder has shown these skills in previous seasons and is a good bet to continue in this vein.


Jeremy Affeldt, San Francisco Giants: More than just a lefty specialist, Affeldt consistently sports peripherals worthy of a roster spot as a middle reliever, and this year is no different with an 8.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.


Some other names to consider:David Hernandez, even when not filling in when J.J. Putz is hurt; Mark Lowe, though he is prone to the gopher ball; and Mitchell Boggs who is another starting pitcher convert taking quite well to life in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen, and let's not forget the man who started this whole discussion, Sean Marshall, who still possesses the skills that made him a closer candidate in the first place.


Now here are some pitchers to avoid because of artificially low ERAs that are due for a correction.



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Tim Byrdak, New York Mets: The 3.09 ERA and 12.7 K/9 are enticing, but along with having injury concerns, Byrdak's history suggests his 2.4 BB/9 is going to head upwards which will hurt even more when his .227 BABIP corrects.


Jose Arredondo, Cincinnati Reds: Ignore the 2.30 ERA, it won't last. The 11.0 K/9 is legit, but so is the 4.1 BB/9. What isn't legit is Arredondo's .195 BABIP. In addition, he is a fly ball pitcher, which will eventually haunt him in the Great American Ballpark.


Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds: This one could come back to burn me as Simon may finally have harnessed his control, but his history suggests the present 9.8 K/9 will fall while his 2.3 BB/9 will rise. While it is true that Simon may have indeed reached a new skill level now that he is settled in the bullpen, the point is this is not a position on which to take chances. If you want to take a flyer on Bryce Harper or hope James McDonald is for real, go for it. When it comes to middle relievers, try not to justify what is likely a sample-size anomaly and rely on track record. The inventory of useful parts is too plush.
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics: Everyone's favorite closer-to-be does not have closer-worthy skills, despite not having surrendered a run yet this season. An 8.2 K/9 is OK, it's above out filter, but his 4.6 BB/9 is not so good. His history indicates these levels are real, which means the runs are right around the corner.


Nick Hagadone, Cleveland Indians: This seems sort of weird to write, but Hagadone was part of the trade shipping Victor Martinez to Boston in 2009. His 1.54 ERA is buoyed by a .148 BABIP; we need to see a longer track record before his 9.26 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 can be relied upon.


Some more names to avoid are Pedro Strop, despite a taste at closing; Craig Breslow, whose hit rate will correct; Brandon Lyon, who despite sporting a 1.76 ERA is still Brandon Lyon; and Clay Hensley, who cannot sustain a 2.35 ERA with a 4.7 BB/9.


Proper deployment of middle relievers can go a long ways towards managing your pitching staff to a championship season. There is no other position of similar nature in fantasy baseball and quite frankly, it is too often overlooked and underappreciated.


On deck: Tricks of the trade will be put under the microscope. Don't forget to return your safety goggles.

 

[HacheMan]

Most frustrating starters to own

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Some pitchers are frustrating, perplexing, maddening. They're the kinds of players who, on one day, fantasy owners love to own, and on another, are likely to make said owners want to bash themselves on the head with a baseball bat.

On one day they'll shut out the Texas Rangers, and on another, they'll get beaten around for 10 runs by the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're responsible for as many smashed TVs, computers or mobile devices as weekly head-to-head matchup wins.


And their poster boy might well be Max Scherzer.


Today, Scherzer looks great. He's coming off his best start in terms of Bill James Game Score all season, a 15-strikeout masterpiece against said Pirates, and his best since May 4, 2011, that one coming against, of all teams, the New York Yankees. Everyone is back on the Scherzer bandwagon -- as of today he is owned in 80.6 percent of ESPN leagues, up 8.3 percent since the morning of that Pirates start -- and probably confused by his mere four-spot bump in this week's rankings.


There's a simple reason: Scherzer, over the course of his five-year big league career, has proven himself a positively confounding pitcher in fantasy.


That Yankees start of Scherzer's, which registered an 81 Game Score, came against the No. 2 team last season in terms of runs per game. Conversely, his second worst start during that time came last July 9 against the San Francisco Giants, who ranked 29th in terms of runs per game. And if we break down teams into groups of 10 -- best 10, middle 10, worst 10 -- in the runs-per-game category, this is how Scherzer has fared against each group since the beginning of 2011:


Best 10: 5.46 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 43.8 QS%, 44.6 Average Game Score
Middle 10: 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 53.3 QS%, 55.1 Average Game Score
Worst 10: 5.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 54.5 QS%, 50.6 Average Game Score

The most obvious takeaway from those statistics is that Scherzer is a clear no-go against the game's elite offenses. That's no shock; most every pitcher except the absolute best in baseball is going to have significantly worse stats against the game's top competition. But what's most bizarre about Scherzer's performance the past 14 months is that he looks like no lock against the game's worst offensive teams, and that he's almost entirely unpredictable against non-top-10 teams.


But with some help from Mike Polikoff, who oversees our fantasy games, we know that Scherzer was active for his Pirates start in 63.1 percent of ESPN leagues, up 1.5 percent from his previous turn versus the Chicago White Sox, in which he surrendered six runs (five earned) on eight hits in four innings. That May 15 stinker caused his ownership percentage to drop 1.9 percent, yet his start percentage rose, probably because of the obvious benefits of a Pirates matchup. That hints that fantasy owners as a whole increasingly regard Scherzer as more of a matchups than a ride-him-every-time pitcher.


The stats above, however, don't support Scherzer's candidacy even as a matchups candidate. And none of this is a positive for a pitcher in fantasy, especially not one drafted 38th at his position in the preseason.


Scherzer continues to tease, partially due to outings like Sunday's, as well as due to both rising strikeout rates (11.65 per nine innings this season, up from 8.03 in 2011) and increased fastball velocity (93.8 average mph, up from 93.1 in 2011). At the same time, his walk rate has risen to a career-high 3.51 per nine, up from 2.58 in 2011, and he has thrown pitches in the strike zone only 47 percent of the time, which is his worst rate in any full season as a big leaguer.


In short, it signals that there might not be a smarter time to begin peddling Scherzer than now, when his value is an in-season high. That he remains a borderline top-50 starter in this week's rankings is testament to his potential, but potential can be a tenuous thing. Would anyone really be surprised if his ranking bounced around between 35th and 70th for the entire summer?


Scherzer isn't the only pitcher who belongs in this class, however. Here are a few other pitchers likely to frustrate you:



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Hudson, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andy Pettitte, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henderson Alvarez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Nolasco, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wei-Yin Chen, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Smyly, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Arrieta, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Danks, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Westbrook, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neftali Feliz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Christian Friedrich, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Drabek, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edinson Volquez, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Randall Delgado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Philip Humber, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anthony Bass, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bronson Arroyo, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felipe Paulino, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Cobb, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Barry Zito, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jarrod Parker, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins: His 2011 owners will be quick to remind you about his July 20 start, during which he allowed nine runs on nine hits in 1&frac13; innings versus the San Diego Padres, the third worst team in baseball in terms of runs per game (3.66). At the same time, sabermetrically minded owners will be quick to point out his numbers in categories like FIP; his 3.66 FIP since the beginning of 2008 is 28th best out of 98 pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that span. Nolasco has been an annual breakout candidate for what seems like forever, yet to date he has never managed an ERA beneath 3.50, or more than 15 wins or 200 strikeouts. This season he's not even an overwhelming performer in FIP; he has a 4.22 number that ranks 87th out of 118 qualifiers.


Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins: That he's out of the Twins' rotation, and has been for a few weeks, has caused his ownership percentage to plummet in ESPN leagues. Still, 5.9 percent?! Why is Liriano still on any rosters? Somehow, he continues to tease, even though his only truly "elite" fantasy season occurred six years ago. Liriano's strikeout (7.42 per nine) and walk (6.82) rates both represent career worsts, and he has shown little hope of a turnaround even as a reliever. If the Twins grant him another chance, don't be fooled.


John Danks, Chicago White Sox: Already this season, one of Danks' best outings came at Texas' Rangers Ballpark, one of the game's best hitters' venues, yet he had a worse outing at Safeco Field, one of the game's best pitchers' venues. Granted, Danks' career numbers are substantially better against losing teams (sub-.500 records) -- 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP -- than against winning teams -- 4.70 and 1.40 -- but in three starts this season he has a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP against losing teams. He also has never finished a year with lower than a 3.32 ERA or 1.22 WHIP, meaning he's much more potential than actual production.


Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals: Before you get too excited about his 3.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP or career-best 8.01 K's-per-nine ratio, keep in mind Jackson's career track record of inconsistency. Most telling: He has an identical lifetime ERA against both winning and losing teams: 4.41. Jackson also has a history of managing useful half-seasons, the other half ruining his fantasy teams' ERA and WHIP. If you can use his hot start, as well as his status as a "fresh start" pitcher with the Nationals, as a basis for selling high, you should do so.


Streamer's delight



Among streaming starter -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- options for the upcoming week, here are my picks by day:


Tuesday, May 22: Phil Hughes versus Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 23: Jonathon Niese at Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, May 24: Philip Humber versus Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 25: Anthony Bass at New York Mets
Saturday, May 26: Jerome Williams at Seattle Mariners
Sunday, May 27: Felipe Paulino at Baltimore Orioles
Monday, May 28: Scott Diamond versus Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 29: Scott Feldman versus Seattle Mariners


Past picks
Tuesday, May 15: Wade Miley -- W, QS, 6&frac23; IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Wednesday, May 16: Jerome Williams -- W, QS, 8 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Thursday, May 17: Aaron Harang -- W, QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Friday, May 18: Jarrod Parker -- 2 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 0 K
Saturday, May 19: Ryan Vogelsong -- W, QS, 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Sunday, May 20: Henderson Alvarez -- 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Monday, May 21: Tommy Milone -- W, QS, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K


Week's total: 7 GS, 5 W (71.4%), 5 QS (71.4%), 42 2/3 IP, 41 H, 16 ER, 9 BB, 27 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Season total: 41 GS, 21 W (51.2%), 27 QS (65.9%), 260 IP, 217 H, 84 ER, 80 BB, 185 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP


Three up



Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins: He has now thrown three consecutive quality starts, and perhaps you're wondering, were they a product of the matchups -- two of the three opponents have an OPS beneath the major league average and the third's is only six points better than average -- or correction to the bad luck he previously had suffered? There might not be any more compelling argument for the latter than this stat: Johnson allowed 20 hits on soft contact in his first six starts, his BABIP on those .278; he allowed just seven in his past three, his BABIP on those .156. The major league average BABIP on soft contact balls in play, incidentally, is .146. Johnson had 16 K's compared to five walks in 21 innings in his past three starts, and if he continues at that pace, he might yet restore his former top-25 starter status.


Bud Norris, Houston Astros: Hey, these Astros aren't so bad! Norris is a big reason; he has five consecutive quality starts and has allowed only one earned run in 26 innings in the month of May, including a six-inning, one-unearned-run performance to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals, the National League's most potent offense so far this season. Norris already has five wins in nine starts, answering a key question about his 2012 fantasy value. These Astros have averaged 4.17 runs per game with a .684 OPS thus far, putting them only slightly beneath the major league averages in either department, so while Norris' win potential still doesn't rate among the elite (or close to it), he shouldn't rank one of the worst, either. He's already 14th in the majors in K's per nine (9.10) and his FIP is 3.39, 38th out of 118 qualifiers, so any help in wins would be a plus.


Felipe Paulino, Kansas City Royals: Utterly forgotten during the preseason due to a strained right forearm, Paulino has returned with a vengeance since his activation from the disabled list on May 5. He has managed three quality starts in his first four starts of 2012, including a pair of games with at least six shutout innings versus the vaunted New York Yankees lineup, and has a 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K's-per-nine-innings ratio in his four turns. But perhaps most importantly, Paulino has a 2.49 walks-per-nine ratio, substantially improved upon his 3.75 career number entering the year. He's well worth adding in AL-only and deep mixed leagues, even if at the bare minimum for streaks play/streaming, and considering he has always possessed a fair share of strikeout potential, he might yet be a long-term help.


Three down



Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox: He might have a wide enough variety of pitches to handle the demands of a starting pitcher, but Bard's command in his new role threatens to return him to his former bullpen gig. These stats speak volumes: 5.48 K's per nine, down nearly four from his 2011 number; 5.27 walks per nine, up more than two from 2011. Bard has also walked 13 batters against just six strikeouts in 18 innings in his past three turns, numbers which manager Bobby Valentine, per ESPNBoston.com, said "aren't acceptable." Kudos to the Red Sox for affording Bard the patience necessary to attempt the transition from relieving to starting, but it's clear their patience is now running thin. Bard might not get many more chances, though if he does return to the bullpen eventually, at least he'd be a dark horse candidate for saves.


Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves: Nate Ravitz and I discussed Minor's struggles on this past Friday's Fantasy Focus podcast, and in the left-hander's weekend start since, he showed zero improvement that could have possibly spared him plummeting 39 spots in the rankings. Here's a damning stat: He has surrendered .327/.403/.681 triple-slash rates to opposing hitters in his past five starts, including 11 home runs in 131 batters faced (one per 11.9). To put that into perspective, during that time span, only seven hitters (50-plus plate appearances) have managed a higher slugging percentage, including Josh Hamilton, who has a major league-leading nine homers in 80 plate appearances (one per 8.9). Home runs have been a severe problem for Minor, but so has command: His 42 percent rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone in his past five starts ranks sixth worst among qualified starters during that time, and his 4.73 walks-per-nine-innings ratio ranks 105th out of 119 qualified starters. Minor should be thankful that Jair Jurrjens is pitching poorly in Triple-A Gwinnett, because his rotation spot -- and inclusion in this column's top 100 -- would be in greater jeopardy otherwise. If he doesn't even warrant a mention in this column next week, no one would be shocked.


Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers: Like Bard, Feliz might soon find himself returned to the bullpen, but unlike Bard, it's less a matter of performance than his team's concern about his health. Feliz on Monday was placed on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation, and per ESPNDallas.com, he'll go four weeks without picking up a baseball, meaning he might not return much before the All-Star break. His substantial drop in this week's rankings -- 35 spaces -- accounts for both the missed time as well as the fact he might return as a reliever; the Rangers were rumored to have watched free agent Roy Oswalt throw this past Friday, and an Oswalt signing would perhaps assure Feliz returns as a reliever.

 

[HacheMan]

Will move to first base spark Morrison?

Eric Karabell

Miami Marlins outfielder Logan Morrison wasn't making bad plays in left field in every game he played out there, but let's face it, he isn't a good outfielder. He's a first baseman. He's also someone that should be a better hitter, but as time goes on it's getting more difficult to evaluate that part of his game as well. Now a new phase in Morrison's career has started with struggling first baseman Gaby Sanchez having been demoted to Triple-A New Orleans over the weekend, and Morrison switching positions.


<offer></offer>Morrison started at first base Sunday and hit an RBI double in three at-bats, and singled in five at-bats Monday. OK, so Josh Hamilton he hasn't been of late, but Morrison hadn't even knocked in a run in two weeks. Baby steps, right? Perhaps not having to patrol left field will ease the wear and tear on his knee problems because there's a legitimate, patient slugger lurking here, a guy that has plate discipline and power, but hasn't been able to really emerge yet.


Now that Sanchez is out of the way, Morrison gets the chance to play first base regularly. One would think Morrison will hit better than Sanchez. Sure, Sanchez was an All-Star last season, whatever that really means about performance, but since that game he had hit .215; he hit .225 after the break last year with six home runs and a .679 OPS. The Marlins fancy themselves as contenders, and it's tough for contenders to have such little production at first base. Entering Tuesday, only poor Ike Davis -- also potentially minor-league bound -- and the New York Mets had a lower OPS from its first basemen than Miami (.555).

Morrison was a big walker in his rookie season of 2010, when he produced a .390 on-base percentage and .837 OPS. He also slugged a mere two home runs in those 62 games, covering 287 plate appearances. So, we hoped for more power, but when it came in 2011 at the expense of plate discipline, Morrison's batting average plummeted to .247. He hit 23 home runs in 123 games (.798 OPS), but it would be nice to see a better combination of the power and patience in 2012. So far, Morrison has hit two home runs in 38 games, yet walked at a better rate than last year. His OPS is down 112 points from last season. He isn't hitting fly balls and probably needs his own platoon against lefties as well, but the Marlins don't have options … unless it's Sanchez.


Nobody can presume with confidence that Morrison will hit better because of the position change, though there have been cases in the past in which a player did perform better leaving a spot he struggled at. Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals is a recent example. ESPN Fantasy projected 19 home runs, 76 RBIs, a .272 batting average and return of the good walk rate for Morrison, but so far he's not on that track. Morrison is owned in only 55.1 percent of ESPN standard leagues, which seems low but defensible based on the current numbers. I think things are going to get better soon, though, so if you're willing to use a bench spot on an outfielder and pending corner infielder with upside, this is the guy.


As for how the Sanchez/Morrison situation affects other Marlins, it should be a few weeks (at least) until major league stolen base leader Emilio Bonifacio returns from the disabled list after his thumb injury. Bryan Petersen handled center field the past few days, but hasn't hit. On Monday Petersen, while batting second in the lineup, struck out four times. Petersen profiles as more of a fourth outfielder, though he hit .351 with walks and power at New Orleans last season. Now 26, Petersen can handle center field defensively and should get on base, but isn't worth a look for fantasy unless it's an NL-only format.


Former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan is probably platooning in left field with right-handed hitting Austin Kearns; that worked Monday when Kearns, facing lefty Jamie Moyer, hit four singles and knocked in two runs. Coghlan should see more playing time, but it's been years since he's hit. It's a shame, really; Coghlan famously hit .372 and stroked 113 hits in the second half of 2009, and in the three seasons since has hit .244 sans power. He's not a good base stealer, especially since tearing his MCL in a shaving cream pie incident and clearly could not handle playing center field. It's also looking like he can't hit much (he's 4-for-38 this season), but I'd spend a dollar in an NL-only league.


Ultimately, five Marlins hitters should be owned in all fantasy leagues: Jose Reyes, Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante and Bonifacio (yes, still). Morrison piques my interest, and keep an eye on Petersen and Coghlan in deeper leagues. Plus, what if Sanchez hits for the New Orleans Zephyrs and Morrison doesn't at first base? There's much to watch in South Florida!

 

[HacheMan]

Waino Looking Bueno
Adam Wainwright is again Adam Wainwright.

The Cardinals ace threw his third career shutout and first since the 2010 campaign on Tuesday night against the Padres, fanning a season-high nine batters while issuing just one walk in St. Louis' 4-0 victory.

Waino lowered his ERA almost an entire point -- from 5.77 to 4.78 -- by the end of the brilliant nine-inning effort and gave an emotional postgame interview to the Cardinals’ television broadcast after getting hugs from each one of his teammates:

“I’m really happy, man,” the right-hander told FOX Sports Midwest while choking back tears. “It’s pretty special.”

San Diego's lineup is an easy ride for most pitchers, but Wainwright showed vintage command -- which appeared only in spurts in previous outings -- and worked at an impressive pace throughout the night. His confidence is back, most of his arsenal is back, and he needs to be started in all fantasy leagues from this point forward.

Walters Continues To Shine ... And Shock

Twins right-hander P.J. Walters caught the attention of some of the planet’s more meticulous fantasy baseball owners earlier this month when he limited the Blue Jays to two earned runs over six innings in his 2012 regular-season debut. It's over 10 days later and he’s still rocking.

Walters threw the first complete game of his major league career on Tuesday night against the White Sox, yielding just five hits and two earned runs while striking out eight in a 9-2 Twins victory. He’s now 2-1 with a fantastic 2.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 15/5 K/BB ratio through his first 21 1/3 innings this season.

Walters is a 27-year-old journeyman and is doubtful to suddenly become an ace, but he has been a breath of fresh air for the success-starved Minnesota rotation since being called up from Triple-A Rochester. Give him a look in deeper mixed fantasy leagues. He’ll face off against the Tigers next.

Not Much To Like Right Now About Ike

Mets first baseman Ike Davis continues to struggle mightily.

The 25-year-old went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Tuesday night’s 3-2 victory over the Pirates, dropping his batting line for the season to a brutal .156/.212/.291 and lifting his strikeout total to 43 (in just 141 at-bats).

Davis isn’t showing any signs of life -- with just seven total hits this month -- and is in real danger of being demoted to Triple-A Buffalo before the end of May. Perhaps it’s the valley fever, or maybe he’s just thinking too much.

Either way, Davis needs to be dropped in all non-keeper fantasy leagues until something begins to change.



National League Quick Hits: The Nationals held Ryan Zimmerman out of Tuesday’s lineup because of lingering shoulder soreness but he is expected to play Wednesday … Brandon Phillips homered twice Tuesday night in the Reds’ win over the Braves … The Diamondbacks are planning to activate Daniel Hudson from the disabled list Sunday … Hanley Ramirez went 3-for-5 with a pair of RBI in Tuesday’s defeat of the Rockies … Miguel Montero is day-to-day with groin discomfort … Tyler Clippard earned his first save of the year on Tuesday and is expected to factor into the Nationals’ ninth-inning mix going forward … Cardinals utilityman Matt Carpenter will get an MRI on his tight right oblique Wednesday … R.A. Dickey struck out a career-high 11 batters in Tuesday’s win against the Pirates … Michael Bourn hit the 15th and 16th home runs of his career in Tuesday’s loss to the Reds … The Phillies placed shortstop Jimmy Rollins on the paternity leave list … Aroldis Chapman has two saves in as many chances since being named the Reds’ closer … Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis remains hospitalized following last week’s emergency fasciotomy … James McDonald fanned eight batters across seven innings Tuesday in a loss to the Mets … Cardinals center fielder Jon Jay (shoulder) has yet to begin any baseball-related activities … Roy Halladay surrendered five runs in six innings Tuesday in a loss to the Nationals … Rockies infielder Jonathan Herrera is day-to-day with right hamstring tightness … Huston Street (lat) has been cleared to begin playing catch … Austin Kearns is day-to-day with a tight right hamstring … Cardinals reliever Kyle McClellan won’t throw for 6-8 weeks due to a torn elbow ligament … Brian McCann is day-to-day with flu-like symptoms.

American League Quick Hits: Orioles left-hander Brian Matusz fanned nine batters Tuesday in a dominant performance against the Red Sox … Rafael Soriano earned his third save Tuesday night … The Tigers scratched Austin Jackson on Tuesday due to lingering abdominal tightness … Albert Pujols is up to four home runs … Kevin Youkilis played first base and homered Tuesday in his return to the Red Sox … Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings (knee) is not expected to be activated from the disabled list until next week … Erick Aybar is day-to-day with a right knee contusion … Carlos Pena hit a home run out of the leadoff spot in Tuesday’s defeat of the Blue Jays … Orioles southpaw Zach Britton (shoulder) could be ready to join the major-league starting rotation next week … The Red Sox placed Cody Ross on the disabled list with a fractured left foot and promoted Scott Podsednik from Triple-A Pawtucket to provide outfield depth … Brian Roberts (concussion) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment Wednesday … Rays closer Fernando Rodney moved to 14-for-14 in save opportunities on Tuesday night … Jose Bautista has six homers and 13 RBI over his past 12 games … Justin Morneau collected his sixth home run of the season on Tuesday night … Travis Hafner is up to 21 RBI … Robinson Cano hit his fifth homer of the 2012 season on Tuesday … Orioles prospect Dylan Bundy could soon be promoted from Low-A Delmarva to High-A Fredrick … Yoenis Cespedes (hand) is expected to begin swinging a bat Wednesday … The Red Sox have not discussed a contract with Roy Oswalt ... Chris Perez earned his 14th save of the season on Tuesday night after drawing a standing ovation from the Progressive Field crowd that he challenged last week.

 

[HacheMan]

It's the Same Every Year How about this for a crazy closer year? 62 relievers already have a save. At least ten teams have already made a change at the position due to injury or poor play. Nightly, there's something happening in a bullpen somewhere that will make the news.

Guess what. It's the same every year.

At least a third of all closers lose their job in any given year, so we're right there. 84 relievers managed a save last year, and you have to figure that many of the pitchers that will earn saves going forward will be the same that have earned saves so far (even if the distribution of those saves is altered). And every year, RotoWorld brings you up-to-date analysis about bullpen moves for just this reason.

With Mariano Rivera going down this year, it's never been more clear. Closers are a volatile group of pitchers. They owe all of their value to their specific role, which is liable to change at the drop of a hat. While position players and starters are given more playing time, which helps them display their true talent, relievers are judged on the tiniest of sample sizes.

All of this is to say that the closer is devalued compared to other players, even starters. For the few of you that have extra closers and are wondering what kind of return you might get, we'll name the tiers something useful for you. Each tier name represents the quality of arm that you might be able to score for your closer right now.

Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Tommy Hanson" Tier.)

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers

Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals

Tommy Hanson's walk rate is up, and his velocity is down. His injury history and possible tendency to wear down as the season progresses are risk factors even if you like his arsenal. That said, he'd be a pretty good get for one of these closers -- even with a reduced projection, he's likely to pitch more than twice the innings of your reliever. And he'll win some games even if he doesn't save any.

In his last ten-plus innings, Motte has actually blown two saves. But he also has ten strikeouts against one walk, and has given up seven hits. He even won the games he blew because he didn't blow up and he's got a good team behind him. He's got leash, gas and control. He's elite. Even if nobody on this list is elite like Mariano Rivera was once elite, he's elite.

Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Matt Moore or Chris Sale" Tier.)

J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers

Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies

Matt Moore has never had a walks problem. Matt Moore only has to better his walk rate to be the excellent pitcher he can be. Watch a start of his, and you know he has excellent stuff and is worth a buy-low. Chris Sale has nice numbers, and the stuff to back it up. On the other hand, he's fresh off an MRI and has been the subject of injury speculation since he entered the league, or since someone spotted the fact that he only weighed about a buck fifty. Now there's added research that shows that the sidearm arm slot might lead to more stress on the elbow. And, as a converted reliever, Sale probably has an innings limit. Still, there's no way he doesn't manage 150 innings, which is about twice your typical reliever.

J.J. Putz blew a save, but more amazing was the fact that he walked two batters Tuesday night. He had walked one all year. He didn't walk two in a game all year last year. You have to go back to April 28 of 2010 to find a game where he walked two batters. Amazing.

Joel Hanrahan moves down because he's still walking guys, and Rafael Betancourt drops a few spots for the two blown games in his last three decisions, but the story here in this tier is Santiago Casilla. Casilla is showing that he's got a stranglehold on the job in San Francisco, by putting up the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career. He's still pumping 94+ MPH gas, and even if he doesn't have the strikeout rate of an elite closer, eight strikeouts per nine is no Jim Johnson situation. The artist formerly known as Jairo Garcia is painting in San Francisco.

Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Ervin Santana" Tier.

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

Ervin Santana is a bit of a Steady Eddy. Well, last year he got a little lucky on batted balls and the overall line looked a little better than his stuff warrants. But he's mostly a fastball/slider guy and he has some platoon issues because of it. This year, he's giving up too many homers than he 'should,' but he's also getting lucky on batted balls. As those two numbers regress, he'll probably be about the same going forward. That isn't sexy, but it's useful. This might be the shocker of the group -- there are plenty of you that wouldn't trade Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen for Ervin Santana -- but even if you were guaranteed that those relievers would keep their jobs, their overall value could be very similar.

Kenley Jansen has turned into a steady eddy. He'd be the hardest guy to trade away in this tier, given his extreme strikeout punch -- 36 in 22 and 2/3 innings. He's Kimbrel-esque, but the amazing thing is that he's really gotten better at that whole control thing this year. He hasn't walked a guy in five appearances and has only walked eight all year. That's a big turnaround that might be worth being suspicious of, but progress might come quickly -- Jansen was a catcher not too long ago. Hold tight to your new closer with elite upside.

Rafael Soriano is not a steady eddy. He's been all over the place. But his closer face is legendary and David Robertson won't be ready to come off the DL when he's eligible. Add in the fact that Soriano has now converted three saves in a row with now trouble, he might just be the closer all year. It's worth noting that he's gone five straight without a walk, too.

Fernando Rodney has done nothing but save games and liven up the clubhouse. His ERA is under one and his WHIP is under one-half, and he's never shown control like this. Now we have some more information on why this is happening. For one, he's getting more called strikes on non-strikes than any other reliever in the business. And that might be related to the fact that he's got a catcher that has proven that he's the best at framing pitches in the league. When you fall back on his career control, you still have to admit there's risk. But all this information makes him very interesting.

Speaking of Aroldis Chapman, he's number one with a bullet shot out of the cannon that is his left arm. But not quite. He's still uncomfortable pitching in back-to-backs, and hasn't done it much over his career. That led to a Sean Marshall save… even after Chapman was declared closer. So keep Sean Marshall around, he'll vulture some saves. And don't get too comfortable with a closer that has a career walk rate over five. Even when it looks so, so awesome right now.

Tier 4: Question marks (8) (AKA: The "Hiroki Kuroda" Tier.)

Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians

Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Brett Myers, Houston Astros

Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins

Hiroki Kuroda is just a 37-year-old righty trying to make it in a hitter's park that loves lefty power. His velocity is down, his walks are up, his whiffs and strikeouts are down… what do you like again? Then again, if you are selling one of these closers, what are you hoping to get, really? Kuroda could improve his home-run luck -- he's giving up home runs on almost 20% of his fly balls, and that number is 10% across the league -- and could rack up some wins on that team. You might want to package your closer with another starter to get an improvement, actually.

Chris Perez! Yell at your fans some more! Even if it's their 'fault' you're finally throwing strikes, it's a good thing! Seriously, whatever got in his dander and made him get his swinging strike rate up (to average), his strikeout rate up (to average for a closer), and limit his walks (to average), it has to rate as a good thing for his owners. After years of declining peripherals (and velocity), his numbers look much much better this year (even though his velocity is down again). I doff my cap (and razor) to you, sir.

I still might rather have Addison Reed, as crazy as that will sound to some. Reed has a strikeout rate that's almost half-again better than Perez, and while his walk rate doesn't look great now, he's been elite in that category all of his career to date. He's the closer now, and he was groomed for this job all along. Once he puts some distance between him and his three-walk meltdown on May 13th, his overall numbers will look more excellent-er than those Perez puts up.

Brandon League is having some trouble. He's been rocked two consecutive times out there, and it's not like his entire year speaks well for him beyond that. He has one more strikeout than walk, and that's because he now has one of the worst walk rates of his career. His vaunted ground-ball rate has even disappeared. Now you're left with a closer that doesn't get strikeouts, doesn't limit the walks, and doesn't get ground balls any more. Go get Tom Wilhelmsen. League's a free agent after this year anyway.

Frank Francisco seems to have held on to his job through thin. Now he's thick with strikeouts and Jon Rauch is the one almost blowing games. Really, it was Bobby Parnell that was the real threat to the job, but the team seems fine with him where he is too. What if the newfound control dissipates, after all. Frankie Frank is walking too many people, but he's still got the strikeout stuff… and the job.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
<!--RW-->
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Erik Bedard" Tier.)

Heath Bell (first chair), Steve Cishek (second chair), Edward Mujica (third chair), Miami Marlins
Brian Fuentes (first chair), Ryan Cook (second chair), Oakland Athletics
Scott Downs (first chair), Ernesto Frieri (second chair), Jordan Walden (third chair), Los Angeles Angels
Dale Thayer (first chair), Andrew Cashner (second chair), Luke Gregerson (third chair), San Diego Padres
Henry Rodriguez (first chair), Tyler Clippard (second chair), Sean Burnett (third chair), Washington Nationals
Casey Janssen (first chair), Francisco Cordero (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Rafael Dolis (first chair), James Russell (second chair), Michael Bowden (third chair), Chicago Cubs

What? You just got Erik Bedard off the waiver wire, and you just got Dale Thayer off the waiver wire. Makes sense to pair them then. Even though there aren't any arrows in this tier today, call it a respite from the storm. There will be movement soon, and you can get ahead of it with some shrewd moves.

You couldn't get much for Heath Bell in a trade, but maybe you could go get Bell for cheap if you believe in him. The velocity is back up to (mostly) his career level, but his walk rate is terrible and the curveball doesn't seem right. He's not getting whiffs. It just seems too risky to buy into.

Brian Fuentes is the nominal closer in Oakland, but he's a lefty. Grant Balfour is pitching the seventh innings now. Who's that lights-out setup man nobody's heard of? Ryan Cook. He came over from Arizona in the Trevor Cahill trade and has legitimate strikeout stuff. The walk rate has been the issue with him -- and at over four per nine now, it's not quite great -- but right now he's got a zero ERA thanks to those strikeouts and a lot of luck. He's already a holds superstar, he might start netting saves. After a week without arrows in the bottom tier, he could be part of the chaos next week.

When C.J. Wilson threw eight one-hit shutout innings Tuesday night, the Angels turned to Ernesto Frieri to lock down the game. It was a five-run lead, but it was also a big game, and it was also the ninth inning. Scott Downs is still a lefty (and managers don't love giving up the platoon advantage to 3/4 of the league in the ninth inning), and Jordan Walden still has his jump-step and control problems. Frieri is one of the better pickups if you're trolling for saves.

Andrew Cashner did get a save opportunity, finally, but then he blew it. He's throwing 99 MPH gas out there right now, and has a great strikeout rate and a good ground-ball rate. He just doesn't know where the plate is, and Dale Thayer -- who had an unimpressive resume going into this season -- is riding his slider and plus control into a safe position as the interim closer.

Henry Rodriguez throws darts against the side of the barn like he needs Lasik surgery. Sean Burnett is a lefty. Tyler Clippard wasn't supposed to be a closer. Now all of them are closers after Clippard got the last one and their manager admitted that it's a committee. Whatever, they're all just keeping the seat warm for Drew Storen, who's due back in about a month.

It says a lot about Rafael Dolis that he's behind a committee. But, yeah, he's pretty terrible. He's still got that ground-ball rate, sure, but he's also still got that bad control and absolute lack of strikeouts. Right now, he's getting lucky on batted balls. When that luck runs out, he'll be a high-fours ERA guy, and he probably won't be the closer. James Russell right now has even worse control -- but at least he has a career track record of better control. The bigger problem for him is that he's a lefty with a platoon split. Michael Bowden is not wowing anyone, and really doesn't have one elite skill, and anyway he's only pitching when the team is losing right now. It's a mess, and Carlos Marmol is still not totally out of the picture.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

Injured

Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth (elbow), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen (elbow), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Huston Street (lat), San Diego Padres
Carlos Marmol (hamstring), Chicago Cubs

Andrew Bailey is going to start a throwing program sometime this week. The doctor said he made good progress and is ready. Drew Storen is still on track to return to his team around the All-Star break. Sergio Santos is throwing and wants to long-toss by the end of the week, and throw from a mound next week. Early June seems reasonable. Huston Street played catch with no side effects (pun intended), and he should be back by early June as well. Carlos Marmol is already headed on out on his rehab assignment. He's not the worst saves pickup if he's out there, given Rafael Dolis.

The Deposed​

Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnatti Reds

Heath Bell got up off this list. Carlos Marmol might, too. Strange to see such a (relatively) small list of deposed, but most in-flux bullpens are so in-flux that it's hard to count anyone out.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

The Steals Department

Ben Revere is back up with the Twins. Yes, he's a flawed player -- he's got no power and very little patience -- but he does have elite wheels. And the Twins do have a pretty bad outfield right now. Well, Josh Willingham is fine -- but due for an injury or two every year -- and Denard Span has some ability. But Darin Mastroianni, Erik Komatsu and Trevor Plouffe are not really starting-quality outfielders. Revere might be able to threaten league average production, and he's started every game since he was called up. He's got way more speed than a Jose Tabata or Michael Brantley, for example, so if you're looking for stolen bases, there are worse moves out there.

Like, for example, you could pick up Scott Podsednik. That would be a worse move if you had better options. But in deep leagues, Podsednik could still have 30-stolen-base wheels and the ability to put up fantasy-league-average batting average. Of course, he has no power and little patience, and his glove is now below-average (at best) in the corner outfield… and that's not really the profile you'd think the saber-savvy Red Sox would turn to for their outfield needs. And they might not -- on the day that Podsednik was called up, the Sawx put Adrian Gonzalez in right field. Carl Crawford is doing baseball activities, Jacoby Ellsbury is still trying to come back around the All-Star break, and the Sawx have like four no-names trying to fill left field and platoon with Ryan Sweeney in right. Marlon Byrd is the only every-day guy right now, and that's just sad. But, oh, yeah, Podsednik -- treat him like the dirty work you have to do just to scrape a few steals together, and no better.

 

[HacheMan]

This year's most frustrating hitters

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

In 78.7 percent of ESPN leagues, there is an owner who is extremely aggravated.

He or she is Rickie Weeks' owner; that is his current ownership percentage.


Meanwhile, in 48.4 percent of ESPN leagues, there is an owner who has been immensely pleased with a certain player's recent level of production.


He or she is J.P. Arencibia's owner, and again, that's his ownership percentage.


Today, Weeks is a nightmare to own and Arencibia looks as good as any catcher, but one month from today, would anyone really be surprised if the prevailing opinions about either had flip-flopped?


After all, Weeks is only two seasons removed from a year in which he was the No. 3 second baseman, No. 33 hitter and No. 52 player overall in fantasy baseball, while Arencibia is only three weeks removed from a miserable April during which he batted .188/.232/.281 and whiffed 19 times in 64 at-bats. For players like these two, streaky, frustrating, maddening types, fortunes can change very quickly.


Separating the value and frustration with players like these is the challenge for the fantasy owner, and in many cases, successfully separating these traits is impossible. They are the players for whom I'll say things like, "Ride the streak," yet there's often no rhyme or reason as to when that hot streak might be coming. You can only identify it when it arrives, and exploit it.


Both Weeks and Arencibia are streaky for no other reason than this: Weeks' 24.0 percent strikeout rate since the beginning of 2010 ranks 15th among qualified hitters (1,000-plus plate appearances) and he has whiffed in at least 20 percent of his PAs in every one of his big league seasons. Arencibia's 26.5 percent K rate since the beginning of 2011 ranks seventh among hitters with 600-plus PAs; he whiffed 27.4 percent of the time as a rookie last season.

Most fantasy owners know that high strikeout rates lead to disappointing cumulative batting averages; what they might not know is that they also lead to painfully long, unpredictable slumps. Such players require patience, enough roster depth to spot them out and aspirin (for their owners' headaches, of course).


Sometimes, however, their struggles become so substantial that they never enjoy a meaningful hot streak, à la Adam Dunn in 2011.


That might be what's happening with Weeks.


Weeks, whose .158 batting average ranks second worst among qualified hitters in baseball, is on pace for 215 strikeouts, which would be the third most by any player in a single season in baseball history -- second if Adam Dunn, the major league leader with a 241-K pace, falls behind in the "race." There is perhaps no more telling statistic about Weeks' struggles than this: He is an .080 hitter in 29 PAs that ended with a pitch clocked at 93 mph or higher; that's substantially worse than the .314 number he managed in 177 PAs against pitches that fast from 2010-11. He has also stopped hitting pitches up in the zone, his .118/.302/.235 triple-slash rates against pitches in the upper third of the strike zone (43 PAs) considerably down from the .258/.424/.454 he managed against them from 2010-11 (251 PAs).


Arencibia, meanwhile, has made noticeable enough improvements this season that he might be worth the headache. Most importantly, he has closed the weak spot in his strike zone, boosting what were .137/.226/.216 triple-slash rates and a 45 percent swing-and-miss rate (115 PAs) against pitches down and outside in 2011 to .250/.294/.406 with a 32 percent miss rate (34 PAs) this season. That's important, because opposing pitchers might have increasingly exploited that spot had he not worked to boost his performance on those pitches.


There's only one guarantee with either player, though: Brace for an inevitable cold spell at some point in the somewhat near future. In the case of Weeks, brace for the possibility that he might be 2012's version of 2011 Dunn.


Weeks and Arencibia are hardly the only streaky, maddening hitters in the game. Let's take a look at some others, wondering whether the headaches are worth it.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Upton, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Uggla, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nelson Cruz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Santana, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Corey Hart, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Napoli, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rodriguez, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric Hosmer, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Young, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kelly Johnson, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Hardy, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Trout, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> B.J. Upton, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Markakis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kevin Youkilis, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Joyce, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ichiro Suzuki, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cameron Maybin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jesus Montero, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Desmond Jennings, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Altuve, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Stubbs, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam LaRoche, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alejandro De Aza, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Gardner, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Morse, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Aviles, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Trumbo, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Reddick, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Howard Kendrick, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Raul Ibanez, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Ruiz, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Moustakas, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Desmond, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jed Lowrie, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mitch Moreland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bryan LaHair, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bryce Harper, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neil Walker, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brennan Boesch, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Ackley, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Schafer, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Seager, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Davis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Lee, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.P. Arencibia, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Montero, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yonder Alonso, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Espinosa, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Utley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Lucroy, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian Dozier, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tony Campana, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




Dunn: He has been one of the game's most pleasant surprises, sporting a pace of 53 home runs and 121 RBIs. Still, Dunn also has what would be a record pace of 241 K's, and his .243 batting average would rank eighth among his 12 career big league seasons. Remember, even in Dunn's successful Washington Nationals years of 2009-10, he had his share of poor months -- see September 2009's .212/.322/.333 rates -- and there are hints in his 2012 peripherals that he's not completely "cured" of what ailed him a year ago. One puzzling change is that pitchers aren't challenging him with hard fastballs up in the zone like they did a year ago; he hasn't had a hit against a fastball of 93 mph or harder in the upper third since 2010, whiffing 21 times in 34 at-bats and missing on 59 percent of his swings against them. Dunn also continues to struggle against lefties, with .174/.291/.413 triple-slash rates and a 48 percent miss rate. There's enough here to suggest he's worth the roller-coaster ride, but if you can fetch anything within range of top-50 overall value -- he's 33rd on the Player Rater for the year -- you should move him now.


Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals: He's back on the "hot" list, thanks to a .286/.340/.551, 3-homer, 3-steal performance in his past 14 games, but veteran Espinosa owners can tell you all about his penchant for cold spells. Presenting for your evaluation: April 2012 (.205/.300/.269, 1 HR, 0 SB), July 2011 (.200/.298/.310, 2 HR, 3 SB) and August 2011 (.233/.307/.359, 2 HR, 1 SB). The sum total might seem like a smart player to stash -- Espinosa did rank 12nd among second basemen for the full 2011 campaign -- but he's excruciating to have in your lineup when he's struggling. He's the ideal player to shop when he's in the middle of a hot spell.


Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates: Already this season, he has enjoyed a 13-game span during which he batted .370 (17-for-46) with six home runs and 13 RBIs, but also a 13-game span during which he batted .146 (6-for-41), didn't hit a home run and struck out 17 times. Incidentally, those polar extreme streaks were back-to-back; they extended first from April 18-May 3 (the "hot" stretch), then from May 4-17 (the "cold" stretch). Alvarez's cold spells, unfortunately, outnumber his hot ones, and there's no better explanation than this: He cannot hit breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders). He's a lifetime .151/.208/.307 hitter with a 41 percent swing-and-miss rate against them, including 92 of his 250 career K's. It's too late now to fool anyone into a deal for Alvarez, but if you stick with him ruining your team's batting average, you're likely to regret it.


Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds: He has two almost-fatal flaws in his game, his Alvarez-esque inability to handle breaking pitches and his Arencibia-in-2011-like struggles against pitches down and away. Stubbs is a .163/.196/.244 hitter against curveballs and sliders this season, after .176/.236/.209 rates against them in 2011, and he has only three hits in 61 at-bats against pitches low and outside since the 2011 All-Star break, missing on 59 percent of his swings against them. Stubbs might not have shown any improvement in either regard this year, making him highly probable to challenge for 200 strikeouts and a sub-.250 batting average for yet another season, but in spite of that he continues to offer his owners just enough in terms of power and speed to stick around. He's on pace for 19 home runs and 31 stolen bases, which would give him a third consecutive season of at least 15 homers and 30 steals.


Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Now fresh off the disabled list, Young has already, in five games since activation, demonstrated his highly streaky nature, going 3-for-20 (.150 average) with six strikeouts. No one really expected him to maintain a .410 batting average or 74-homer pace -- that was his pace at the time he landed on the DL -- but his owners surely were hoping he wouldn't kick things off this cold, either. Young does seem like a streaky player worth owning, and even more so than the aforementioned Stubbs, because of his 20/20 potential -- he has managed those numbers in each of the past two seasons -- and improved contact rate: His 81.4 percent rate so far this year would represent a career best.


Three up



Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: Whatever ailed Bautista before, he seems to have cured it. It took a two-homer game at Minnesota's Target Field on May 11 -- that gave him 10 homers in 11 career games at the venue, the fifth most homers by any individual player there all-time, including Twins -- to get him started, but since and including that day, he's a .340 hitter (16-for-47) with six homers and 13 RBIs in 12 contests. For the third consecutive season, Bautista has improved his contact rate, and his .205 BABIP -- .450 on hard contact, down from .593 a year ago -- hints that poor fortune has been partly responsible for his early struggles. He's back in the top 10 this week, and might even have room to improve.


Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics: It's time to regard Reddick as a viable regular both in the real and fantasy games. While his 16.4 percent home run/fly ball rate hints that he has been somewhat fortunate in the home run category -- he has 11 in 166 at-bats -- Reddick has shown through part of this and last season that he's capable of a .280 batting average and 20-homer power, which seems about right considering he was a .278 career minor league hitter who averaged 30 homers per 162 games played. Naturally there's some sell-high potential in him, as he's currently 16th on our Player Rater, but Reddick has shown enough to date that he should remain among the top 125 hitters from today forward.


Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: Now this is the kind of production Trout's owners expected from a player who earned a No. 1 prospect ranking in the preseason -- that per Keith Law's rankings. Trout made his 2012 debut on April 28, or 25 days ago, and on our Player Rater, only 20 players have been deemed more valuable in the past 30 days. Projecting his numbers to date over the remaining season (adjusting for the 20 team games he missed to begin the year) Trout is on pace for 24 homers, 36 stolen bases, 71 RBIs and 95 runs scored with a .333 batting average. Those are competitive with his career peak numbers, incidentally, which underscores how remarkable his recent performance is considering he's still only 20 years old. Better yet: Trout no longer has much of a question of playing time, as since spring training the Angels have shed Bobby Abreu, and lost Vernon Wells for the next two months due to thumb surgery.


Three down



Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: This isn't meant to criticize Gonzalez as a useless fantasy asset, but rather to point out that he's no longer a lock for first-round value. He's a .271 hitter who has had a sub-.800 OPS in both April and May, and he's on pace for 11 home runs, which would be his fewest since he was a part-timer for the Texas Rangers in 2005. Gonzalez continues to trade power for a more line drive-oriented approach; he has 22 opposite-field hits, putting him on pace for 81, after setting a personal best with 73 last season. He might again be nothing more than a .300-hitting, 25-homer performer, and while that's supremely valuable in fantasy baseball, it's not as rare from a first baseman as from a player at another position. To that end, there have been 15 instances of a .300-25 season from a first baseman in the past three seasons combined.


Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals: His season seems to only get worse with time; he's a .183/.264/.329 hitter in the month of May, after hitting .171/.232/.303 in April, and he has batted .140 in his past 15 contests. The source of Hosmer's struggles is perplexing. This season, he has improved his contact rate, boosting it from 84.3 percent in 2011 to 86.7, his swing-and-miss rate, lowering it from 21 to 20 percent, his chase (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) rate, lowering it from 33 to 30 percent, and hasn't suffered severely in well-hit average (the percentage of his at-bats that ended in hard contact), going from .241 to .196. All of those numbers hint that Hosmer is a smart buy-low candidate, but to date, he has shown little to generate excitement in fantasy. One stat that's somewhat troubling: His 43 percent rate of pitches seen in the strike zone is 17th worst in the majors. Opponents seem to be working around him, so don't be so quick to assume an instant turnaround.


Howard Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels: Everything about his career-year 2011 numbers screamed "regression," but even Kendrick's critics couldn't have expected him to drop off by this much. He's a .146 hitter (6-for-41) with zero extra-base hits and 13 strikeouts in his past 12 games. Kendrick has slipped into some bad habits this season, his K rate is 23.6 percent, which would be a career high, and his chase rate rising by 1 percent (31-32) this season. As a player who generates a healthy chunk of his value through his batting average, Kendrick cannot afford to swing and miss at the rate that he has to date.


New position eligibility



The following players have become eligible at new positions -- it's 10 games to qualify at a new spot -- in ESPN standard leagues during the past week: Joaquin Arias (3B), Ryan Flaherty (3B), John Mayberry Jr. (1B), Donnie Murphy (2B), Jordan Pacheco (3B), Nick Punto (3B), Mark Trumbo (OF).


Nearing new position eligibility



The following players are on track to earn new eligibility in the coming weeks: Allen Craig (9 games played at 1B), Greg Dobbs (8 games played at 1B), Matt Downs (8 games played at 1B), Eduardo Escobar (8 games played at 3B), Maicer Izturis (8 games played at SS), Elliot Johnson (9 games played at 2B), Andy Parrino (9 games played at 2B), Trevor Plouffe (8 games played at 3B), Nick Punto (9 games played at 3B), Mark Trumbo (8 games played at 3B).

 

[HacheMan]

Most frustrating starters to own

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Some pitchers are frustrating, perplexing, maddening. They're the kinds of players who, on one day, fantasy owners love to own, and on another, are likely to make said owners want to bash themselves on the head with a baseball bat.

On one day they'll shut out the Texas Rangers, and on another, they'll get beaten around for 10 runs by the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're responsible for as many smashed TVs, computers or mobile devices as weekly head-to-head matchup wins.


And their poster boy might well be Max Scherzer.


Today, Scherzer looks great. He's coming off his best start in terms of Bill James Game Score all season, a 15-strikeout masterpiece against said Pirates, and his best since May 4, 2011, that one coming against, of all teams, the New York Yankees. Everyone is back on the Scherzer bandwagon -- as of today he is owned in 80.6 percent of ESPN leagues, up 8.3 percent since the morning of that Pirates start -- and probably confused by his mere four-spot bump in this week's rankings.


There's a simple reason: Scherzer, over the course of his five-year big league career, has proven himself a positively confounding pitcher in fantasy.


That Yankees start of Scherzer's, which registered an 81 Game Score, came against the No. 2 team last season in terms of runs per game. Conversely, his second worst start during that time came last July 9 against the San Francisco Giants, who ranked 29th in terms of runs per game. And if we break down teams into groups of 10 -- best 10, middle 10, worst 10 -- in the runs-per-game category, this is how Scherzer has fared against each group since the beginning of 2011:


Best 10: 5.46 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 43.8 QS%, 44.6 Average Game Score
Middle 10: 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 53.3 QS%, 55.1 Average Game Score
Worst 10: 5.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 54.5 QS%, 50.6 Average Game Score

The most obvious takeaway from those statistics is that Scherzer is a clear no-go against the game's elite offenses. That's no shock; most every pitcher except the absolute best in baseball is going to have significantly worse stats against the game's top competition. But what's most bizarre about Scherzer's performance the past 14 months is that he looks like no lock against the game's worst offensive teams, and that he's almost entirely unpredictable against non-top-10 teams.


But with some help from Mike Polikoff, who oversees our fantasy games, we know that Scherzer was active for his Pirates start in 63.1 percent of ESPN leagues, up 1.5 percent from his previous turn versus the Chicago White Sox, in which he surrendered six runs (five earned) on eight hits in four innings. That May 15 stinker caused his ownership percentage to drop 1.9 percent, yet his start percentage rose, probably because of the obvious benefits of a Pirates matchup. That hints that fantasy owners as a whole increasingly regard Scherzer as more of a matchups than a ride-him-every-time pitcher.


The stats above, however, don't support Scherzer's candidacy even as a matchups candidate. And none of this is a positive for a pitcher in fantasy, especially not one drafted 38th at his position in the preseason.


Scherzer continues to tease, partially due to outings like Sunday's, as well as due to both rising strikeout rates (11.65 per nine innings this season, up from 8.03 in 2011) and increased fastball velocity (93.8 average mph, up from 93.1 in 2011). At the same time, his walk rate has risen to a career-high 3.51 per nine, up from 2.58 in 2011, and he has thrown pitches in the strike zone only 47 percent of the time, which is his worst rate in any full season as a big leaguer.


In short, it signals that there might not be a smarter time to begin peddling Scherzer than now, when his value is an in-season high. That he remains a borderline top-50 starter in this week's rankings is testament to his potential, but potential can be a tenuous thing. Would anyone really be surprised if his ranking bounced around between 35th and 70th for the entire summer?


Scherzer isn't the only pitcher who belongs in this class, however. Here are a few other pitchers likely to frustrate you:



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Hudson, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andy Pettitte, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henderson Alvarez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Nolasco, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wei-Yin Chen, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Smyly, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Arrieta, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Danks, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Westbrook, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neftali Feliz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Christian Friedrich, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Drabek, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edinson Volquez, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Randall Delgado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Philip Humber, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anthony Bass, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bronson Arroyo, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felipe Paulino, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Cobb, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Barry Zito, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jarrod Parker, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins: His 2011 owners will be quick to remind you about his July 20 start, during which he allowed nine runs on nine hits in 1&frac13; innings versus the San Diego Padres, the third worst team in baseball in terms of runs per game (3.66). At the same time, sabermetrically minded owners will be quick to point out his numbers in categories like FIP; his 3.66 FIP since the beginning of 2008 is 28th best out of 98 pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that span. Nolasco has been an annual breakout candidate for what seems like forever, yet to date he has never managed an ERA beneath 3.50, or more than 15 wins or 200 strikeouts. This season he's not even an overwhelming performer in FIP; he has a 4.22 number that ranks 87th out of 118 qualifiers.


Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins: That he's out of the Twins' rotation, and has been for a few weeks, has caused his ownership percentage to plummet in ESPN leagues. Still, 5.9 percent?! Why is Liriano still on any rosters? Somehow, he continues to tease, even though his only truly "elite" fantasy season occurred six years ago. Liriano's strikeout (7.42 per nine) and walk (6.82) rates both represent career worsts, and he has shown little hope of a turnaround even as a reliever. If the Twins grant him another chance, don't be fooled.


John Danks, Chicago White Sox: Already this season, one of Danks' best outings came at Texas' Rangers Ballpark, one of the game's best hitters' venues, yet he had a worse outing at Safeco Field, one of the game's best pitchers' venues. Granted, Danks' career numbers are substantially better against losing teams (sub-.500 records) -- 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP -- than against winning teams -- 4.70 and 1.40 -- but in three starts this season he has a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP against losing teams. He also has never finished a year with lower than a 3.32 ERA or 1.22 WHIP, meaning he's much more potential than actual production.


Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals: Before you get too excited about his 3.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP or career-best 8.01 K's-per-nine ratio, keep in mind Jackson's career track record of inconsistency. Most telling: He has an identical lifetime ERA against both winning and losing teams: 4.41. Jackson also has a history of managing useful half-seasons, the other half ruining his fantasy teams' ERA and WHIP. If you can use his hot start, as well as his status as a "fresh start" pitcher with the Nationals, as a basis for selling high, you should do so.


Streamer's delight



Among streaming starter -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- options for the upcoming week, here are my picks by day:


Tuesday, May 22: Phil Hughes versus Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 23: Jonathon Niese at Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, May 24: Philip Humber versus Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 25: Anthony Bass at New York Mets
Saturday, May 26: Jerome Williams at Seattle Mariners
Sunday, May 27: Felipe Paulino at Baltimore Orioles
Monday, May 28: Scott Diamond versus Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 29: Scott Feldman versus Seattle Mariners


Past picks
Tuesday, May 15: Wade Miley -- W, QS, 6&frac23; IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Wednesday, May 16: Jerome Williams -- W, QS, 8 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Thursday, May 17: Aaron Harang -- W, QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Friday, May 18: Jarrod Parker -- 2 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 0 K
Saturday, May 19: Ryan Vogelsong -- W, QS, 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Sunday, May 20: Henderson Alvarez -- 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Monday, May 21: Tommy Milone -- W, QS, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K


Week's total: 7 GS, 5 W (71.4%), 5 QS (71.4%), 42 2/3 IP, 41 H, 16 ER, 9 BB, 27 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Season total: 41 GS, 21 W (51.2%), 27 QS (65.9%), 260 IP, 217 H, 84 ER, 80 BB, 185 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP


Three up



Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins: He has now thrown three consecutive quality starts, and perhaps you're wondering, were they a product of the matchups -- two of the three opponents have an OPS beneath the major league average and the third's is only six points better than average -- or correction to the bad luck he previously had suffered? There might not be any more compelling argument for the latter than this stat: Johnson allowed 20 hits on soft contact in his first six starts, his BABIP on those .278; he allowed just seven in his past three, his BABIP on those .156. The major league average BABIP on soft contact balls in play, incidentally, is .146. Johnson had 16 K's compared to five walks in 21 innings in his past three starts, and if he continues at that pace, he might yet restore his former top-25 starter status.


Bud Norris, Houston Astros: Hey, these Astros aren't so bad! Norris is a big reason; he has five consecutive quality starts and has allowed only one earned run in 26 innings in the month of May, including a six-inning, one-unearned-run performance to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals, the National League's most potent offense so far this season. Norris already has five wins in nine starts, answering a key question about his 2012 fantasy value. These Astros have averaged 4.17 runs per game with a .684 OPS thus far, putting them only slightly beneath the major league averages in either department, so while Norris' win potential still doesn't rate among the elite (or close to it), he shouldn't rank one of the worst, either. He's already 14th in the majors in K's per nine (9.10) and his FIP is 3.39, 38th out of 118 qualifiers, so any help in wins would be a plus.


Felipe Paulino, Kansas City Royals: Utterly forgotten during the preseason due to a strained right forearm, Paulino has returned with a vengeance since his activation from the disabled list on May 5. He has managed three quality starts in his first four starts of 2012, including a pair of games with at least six shutout innings versus the vaunted New York Yankees lineup, and has a 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K's-per-nine-innings ratio in his four turns. But perhaps most importantly, Paulino has a 2.49 walks-per-nine ratio, substantially improved upon his 3.75 career number entering the year. He's well worth adding in AL-only and deep mixed leagues, even if at the bare minimum for streaks play/streaming, and considering he has always possessed a fair share of strikeout potential, he might yet be a long-term help.


Three down



Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox: He might have a wide enough variety of pitches to handle the demands of a starting pitcher, but Bard's command in his new role threatens to return him to his former bullpen gig. These stats speak volumes: 5.48 K's per nine, down nearly four from his 2011 number; 5.27 walks per nine, up more than two from 2011. Bard has also walked 13 batters against just six strikeouts in 18 innings in his past three turns, numbers which manager Bobby Valentine, per ESPNBoston.com, said "aren't acceptable." Kudos to the Red Sox for affording Bard the patience necessary to attempt the transition from relieving to starting, but it's clear their patience is now running thin. Bard might not get many more chances, though if he does return to the bullpen eventually, at least he'd be a dark horse candidate for saves.


Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves: Nate Ravitz and I discussed Minor's struggles on this past Friday's Fantasy Focus podcast, and in the left-hander's weekend start since, he showed zero improvement that could have possibly spared him plummeting 39 spots in the rankings. Here's a damning stat: He has surrendered .327/.403/.681 triple-slash rates to opposing hitters in his past five starts, including 11 home runs in 131 batters faced (one per 11.9). To put that into perspective, during that time span, only seven hitters (50-plus plate appearances) have managed a higher slugging percentage, including Josh Hamilton, who has a major league-leading nine homers in 80 plate appearances (one per 8.9). Home runs have been a severe problem for Minor, but so has command: His 42 percent rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone in his past five starts ranks sixth worst among qualified starters during that time, and his 4.73 walks-per-nine-innings ratio ranks 105th out of 119 qualified starters. Minor should be thankful that Jair Jurrjens is pitching poorly in Triple-A Gwinnett, because his rotation spot -- and inclusion in this column's top 100 -- would be in greater jeopardy otherwise. If he doesn't even warrant a mention in this column next week, no one would be shocked.


Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers: Like Bard, Feliz might soon find himself returned to the bullpen, but unlike Bard, it's less a matter of performance than his team's concern about his health. Feliz on Monday was placed on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation, and per ESPNDallas.com, he'll go four weeks without picking up a baseball, meaning he might not return much before the All-Star break. His substantial drop in this week's rankings -- 35 spaces -- accounts for both the missed time as well as the fact he might return as a reliever; the Rangers were rumored to have watched free agent Roy Oswalt throw this past Friday, and an Oswalt signing would perhaps assure Feliz returns as a reliever.

 

[HacheMan]

The Trials of Tulo
Dylan Bundy: the man, the myth, the...High-A pitcher. By now, you likely already know a thing or two about the No. 4 pick of the 2011 Draft.

If you haven’t read about his unconventional workout methods, you’ve surely seen his gaudy statistics. Promoted from Low-A Delmarva on Wednesday, Bundy’s final Low-A stat line will read as if 1999 Pedro Martinez decided to spend six weeks on the farm.

Just in case you haven’t seen: 0.00 ERA, 0.23 WHIP and a 40/2 K/BB ratio. That’s what Bundy did in 30 Low-A innings. He struck out 40.4 percent of the 99 batters he faced.

It’s eye-popping stuff that could become legendary if everything breaks right for the Orioles. Of course, everything ends up breaking right for only a select few prospects, so to assume Bundy is assured of even being a future No. 5 starter would be presumptuous.

But no mistake, Bundy is a special talent, one of the best high school arms we’ve seen in a long time. The Orioles have pledged Bundy won’t skip any levels of the minor leagues on his way to the show, but if he makes mincemeat of High-A the way he did Low-A, it wouldn’t be absurd to see him in Double-A before season’s end. And if that’s the case, it wouldn’t be absurd to see him make his major-league debut as a 20 year old in 2013.

The Curious Case of Troy Tulowitzki

Here’s what we don’t know: if there’s really anything to the notion that some players can be “first-half players,” “second-half players,” etc.

Here’s what we do know: entering play on Wednesday, Troy Tulowitzki was a .264/.339/.451 hitter in 1,661 career plate appearances before the All-Star break, and .321/.389/.555 hitter in 1,486 plate appearances after the Midsummer Classic.

That first triple slash is still that of a very good player. The second? Just put it this way: Tulo’s .944 career second-half OPS would be 30th all time if it were his total line and not just his post-ASB line.

It’s why fantasy owners shouldn’t panic that Tulo is hitting “just” .268/.345/.439 through Colorado’s first 43 games after he went 2-for-4 with a home run, double and four RBI Wednesday, but also why they can’t help but feel like owning him is always a bit of a missed opportunity. Why can’t he always be this good?

The answer has proven elusive — and would probably be entirely random and unscientific if we ever found it — but you can plan on this: Tulo will be a good, but not great, player for roughly the next six weeks. After that, he’ll be the fantasy stud you were planning on and more when you drafted him ahead of the likes of Joey Votto and Robinson Cano.

The More Curious Case of A.J. Ellis

Look, we know baseball is a mysterious game. We have entire Twitter feeds devoted to it. But .327/.449/.513? For a 31-year-old catcher who had all of 216 career at-bats before 2012?

You couldn’t predict it, you couldn’t hope for it, you couldn’t dream of it. But that’s exactly what A.J. Ellis is doing, and why he’s quickly become the 30-14 Dodgers’ most indispensable bat not named Matt Kemp. (Yes, Mrs. Ethier, I admit this is probably over-the-top praise.)

We know Ellis won’t keep reaching base 44.9 percent of the time, but don’t think for one second that his on-base skills are not legitimate. If there’s one thing we learned from Ellis’ 2,119 minor league plate appearances, it’s that he can get on base. He did so via hits 478 times and walks 336 times. Along the way, he was plunked by 38 pitches.

It all came out to a .406 on-base percentage, and definitive proof Ellis has mastered baseball’s most important skill. Ellis is here to stay, and his ability to stay on the basepaths and out of the dugout is the reason why.

The Incurious Case of Andy Pettitte

Don’t call it a comeback. Well do, but, you know.

Striking out eight in the process, Andy Pettitte held the Royals to two runs on seven hits in seven innings of work on Wednesday.

He's now 2-1 in three starts since rejoining the Yankees rotation following a 19-month hiatus, and has gone at least 6 1/3 innings every time out.

He’s posted a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 19/5 K/BB ratio through 21 1/3 innings, and pretty much exactly been the Andy we’ve always known and loved.

Pettitte’s back, and D.J. Short will have more on his roaring return in today’s “Waiver Wired.”

Game Notes: Batting .176/.260/.368 in May entering play on Wednesday, David Freese went 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBI. Perhaps he’s actually busted his slump this time. … Nick Johnson homered twice. With the Orioles still searching for answers at first base, Johnson’s playing time should only increase. … Chris Sale dominated the Twins. … Paul Konerko upped his average to .381. … Barry Zito did Barry Zito things. … Cole Hamels and Lance Lynn both earned their seventh victories. … Alex Rodriguez homered twice off a pitcher named “William Smith.” … J.D. Martinez showed signs of life.

National League Short Hops: Lance Berkman will have exploratory surgery on his injured right knee this morning. We already know his meniscus is torn, but if doctors find he’s stretched his ACL, his season — and possibly his career — will be over. … Berkman’s would-be fill-in Allen Craig (hamstring) will take batting practice after doing some light running on Wednesday. … According to Nationals manager Davey Johnson, Michael Morse (lat) will "for sure" be back by June 8. Believe it when you see it. … Carlos Marmol (hamstring) threw a bullpen session. If he feels good today, he could begin a rehab assignment as early as Friday. … Pablo Sandoval (hand surgery) took 25 pain-free swings off a tee. He’s nearing a rehab assignment.

American League Short Hops: Addison Reed was officially named the White Sox closer. Congratulations if you won Chicago Stopper Roulette two weeks ago. … Brett Gardner (elbow) suffered another setback. It’s beginning to look like we’ll be lucky to see New York’s speed demon before the All-Star break. Surgery shouldn’t be ruled out. … Torii Hunter (restricted list) should rejoin the Angels next Monday or Tuesday. … Adrian Gonzalez played right field again. This could become an increasingly common occurrence.

 

[HacheMan]

Dandy Andy
We're rapidly approaching Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial first benchmark of the baseball season. It's a great time to catch up with family and friends while doing a little grilling and watching some day baseball, but it's also the perfect opportunity to take stock of your fantasy team and evaluate your chances for success moving forward.

We have nearly two months of data to work with here, so while there are still some fluky things going on, "small sample size" isn't the easy excuse it was just a few weeks ago. Some players appear to be taking the next step (Adam Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, Gio Gonzalez) while others (Ike Davis, John Danks, Colby Rasmus) have gone from being universally owned on draft day to common waiver wire fodder.

Perhaps you've been burned by some combination of injuries, underperforming veterans and sleepers who turned out to be duds. You're not alone there. And stop feeling sorry for yourself. Weird things happen in this game we all love, so there's still plenty of time to turn things around. Scouring the waiver wire is a pretty good way to get started.

MIXED LEAGUES

Felipe Paulino RP/SP, Royals (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 7.1 percent)

I was one of those folks who thought Paulino was headed for a breakthrough season in 2010 with the Astros. Better late than never, I suppose. Since missing the first month of the season with a strained right forearm, Paulino has a microscopic 1.42 ERA and 29/7 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings. Three of his four starts have been scoreless, including two against the Yankees. His hot start isn't coming completely out of nowhere either, as the 28-year-old right-hander had an intriguing 4.11 ERA and 119/48 K/BB ratio in 124 2/3 innings with the Royals after being acquired from the Rockies last May. He's worth a look outside of shallow mixed leagues.

Anthony Bass SP/RP, Padres (Yahoo: 30 percent owned, ESPN: 19.9 percent)

I keep waiting for the bloom to come off the rose with Bass, but it just hasn't happened yet. And perhaps it won't. The 24-year-old right-hander has a fantastic 2.89 ERA and 51/18 K/BB ratio over 53 innings this season, including a 2.94 ERA in eight starts. It's a small sample, sure, but Bass has evolved quite a bit from the pitcher we saw down the stretch last year. His walk and ground ball rates have both improved while his swinging strike rate is currently among the league leaders. And his success isn't just a product of PETCO Park either, as he has a 3.09 ERA in five starts and two relief appearances at home compared to a 2.57 ERA in three starts on the road. Judging by his ownership percentage, it seems his hot start is still flying under the radar. It probably won't for much longer.

Matt Adams 1B, Cardinals (Yahoo: 16 percent owned, ESPN: 9.6 percent)

Adams was tabbed as the Cardinals' "first baseman of the future" as soon as Albert Pujols signed with the Angels last December, but he wasn't expected to arrive this soon. Of course, Lance Berkman's knee injury has changed that. The full extent of Berkman's injury isn't yet known -- we should know more after he undergoes exploratory surgery on Friday -- but Adams should get a pretty solid shake at the first base job, at least until Allen Craig returns from a hamstring injury. The 23-year-old isn't known for his patience, but he should be able to hit for average and power right away. Give him a try in deeper mixed leagues.

Andy Pettitte SP, Yankees (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 38.4 percent)

Why did Pettitte take a year off again? In his first three starts back with the Yankees, the 39-year-old southpaw owns an impressive 2.53 ERA and 19/5 K/BB ratio over 21 1/3 innings. This includes back-to-back starts with at least eight strikeouts. He hasn't done that since 2006. I don't expect Pettitte to maintain his current ERA -- heck, even matching his 3.28 ERA from 2010 is asking a little much -- but he hasn't missed a beat thus far and there's enough talent in the Yankees' offense to put him in line for plenty of wins. He should be relevant in most mixed leagues moving forward.

Sean Rodriguez 2B/3B/SS, Rays (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 29.9 percent)

After batting just .190 in April, Rodriguez is hitting .296 (21-for-71) with three homers, four doubles, nine RBI and an .803 OPS over 22 games in May. While he's still not a strong bet to hit for a high batting average, he has at least seen moderate improvements with his contact and strikeout rates so far this season. His power-speed combo and multi-position eligibility makes him a pretty handy option in deeper mixed leagues, especially if he can be used at a MI (middle infielder) spot.

Ernesto Frieri RP, Angels (Yahoo: 23 percent owned, ESPN: 15.1 percent)

Thanks to a shrewd deal by GM Jerry Dipoto, the Angels may have found their solution for the closer role. Frieri has yet to allow a hit since being acquired from the Padres last month, posting an 18/6 K/BB ratio over 8 2/3 scoreless innings. He notched his first career save Wednesday by striking out the side in extra-inning win over the Athletics. Scott Downs is still the designated option for the ninth inning at the moment, but I give Frieri the edge in the long-term since he's right-handed and has the swing-and-miss stuff we're used to seeing from a closer-type. Stash now and reap the benefits later.

Coco Crisp OF, Athletics (Yahoo: 28 percent owned, ESPN: 30 percent)

Crisp just returned from an inner ear infection and is only hitting .175/.233/.188 through 86 plate appearances this year, but those are hardly reasons to ignore him in mixed leagues. We're talking about a guy who tied Brett Gardner for the American League lead with 49 stolen bases last year and has eight homers in each of the past two seasons. Sure, Crisp will probably end up on the disabled list again at some point and it would be nice if he got on base more often, but there's no reason why he should be owned in so few leagues right now.

Dayan Viciedo OF, White Sox (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 38.1 percent)

Viciedo has shown plenty of power potential in the minors, but he's had a tough time getting it to translate to major league success. Perhaps that will change soon. After getting off to a miserable start this year, "The Tank" had four home runs and 10 RBI in the space of six games last week. The 23-year-old still owns a woeful 83/14 K/BB ratio over 359 plate appearances in the majors and he has made zero improvement in his approach, so he's not someone I would trust in shallow mixed leagues, but his power makes him worth a flier in five-outfielder formats.

Tyler Clippard RP, Nationals (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 20.1 percent)

Nationals manager Davey Johnson tried to stick it out with Henry Rodriguez as long as possible, but the young fireballer's constant inability to find the strike zone gave him no other choice but to make a change with the closer role this week. He now plans to use a closer-by-committee approach, at least until Brad Lidge and/or Drew Storen return from the disabled list. Sean Burnett and Craig Stammen should also be in the mix, so feel free to stash in deeper leagues, but Clippard got the first save since Rodriguez's demotion and owns an outstanding 2.56 ERA dating back to the start of the 2009 season. If you are going to own somebody in this situation, why not get the best one?

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Everth Cabrera SS, Padres (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

We haven't heard much from Cabrera since he stole 25 bases as a 22-year-old back in 2009, but he's back on the fantasy radar now that the Padres have begun a youth movement with their middle infield. While the speedy shortstop got off to a bit of a rough start by going hitless over his first 19 at-bats since his promotion last week, he finally got off the schneid Wednesday night against the Cardinals by going 2-for-4 with a pair of singles. Any power would be a bonus, but Cabrera packs plenty of patience and has already proven that he can rack up a bunch of stolen bases if given the green light. There's a chance Jason Bartlett won't have his starting job when he is ready to return from the disabled list, so Cabrera makes for a pretty intriguing MI (middle infielder) option in deeper mixed leagues.

Will Venable OF, Padres (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1.1 percent)

Fresh off going 3-for-5 with a homer and a double Wednesday night against the Cardinals, Venable isn't straying too far from what we've seen from him in the past. Namely that he's a completely different player away from PETCO Park. The 29-year-old outfielder owns a .223/.301/.371 career batting line and a .672 OPS at home compared to a .280/.343/.451 career batting line and a .794 OPS on the road. The Padres still have seven games left on their current 10-game road trip -- four against the Mets and three against the Cubs -- so he's a fine short-term pick up in deeper formats. I would hesitate starting him against left-handed pitchers (.548 career OPS), so he is best utilized in a daily league.

Suitable streamer:

Jerome Williams SP, Angels (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 11.6 percent)

Eight appearances into the 2012 season, Williams has shown that his surprising performance down the stretch last season wasn't necessarily a fluke. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.74 ERA and 33/16 K/BB ratio in 53 innings and has allowed two runs or less in five out of his last six appearances. While Williams isn't going to help much in the strikeout department, he throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground for the most part. He's a strong streaming option this weekend against the Mariners, who are hitting just .201/.284/.319 with a .604 OPS at home this season. <!--RW-->

NL ONLY

Josh Bell 3B, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

The Diamondbacks surprised many earlier this week by designating Cody Ransom for assignment and installing Bell as the regular third baseman while pushing Ryan Roberts into a utility infield role. Bell, now 25, tore up the Pacific Coast League after coming over from the Orioles last month, but he owns a measly .203 batting average and an 81/6 K/BB ratio over 233 plate appearances in the majors. I'm very skeptical about how long this arrangement will last, but Bell should be owned as long as he's getting regular playing time.

Travis Wood SP, Cubs (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

Wood replaced the struggling Chris Volstad in the Cubs' starting rotation on Tuesday night and allowed two runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Astros. The 25-year-old southpaw had a 4.57 ERA across seven starts with Triple-A Iowa, which doesn't inspire much enthusiasm, but he had a solid 39/11 K/BB ratio in 41 1/3 innings. His fly ball tendencies worry me in Chicago and he's unlikely to win many games with a team which is likely headed toward 100 losses, but I'm willing to take a chance on a guy who posted a 3.51 ERA in 17 starts with the Reds back in 2010.

Alexi Amarista 2B, Padres (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

The other part of the Padres' youth infusion, Amarista took over the starting second base job following Orlando Hudson's release. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Angels three weeks ago as part of the Ernesto Frieri deal. Checking in at just 5-foot-7 and 150 pounds, many think Amarista will end up as a utility man in the long run, but he posted a .312/.368/.439 batting line in the minor leagues and has the potential for double-digit stolen bases. That's good enough to give him some low-end value in NL-only leagues.

Steve Clevenger C, Cubs (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

I first recommended Clevenger about a month ago, just days before he landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain. Sorry about that. The good news is that he's nearing the end of his rehab assignment and shouldn't have much of a problem getting the lion's share of at-bats at catcher with Geovany Soto and Welington Castillo both on the disabled list. Clevenger was 11-for-22 (.500) before the injury and owns a solid .308/.369/.421 batting line over parts of seven seasons in the minors. About time he gets a look.

AL ONLY

Orlando Hudson 2B, White Sox (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

Hudson got the boot from the Padres last week after hitting just .211/.260/.317 over his first 131 plate appearances this season, but it didn't take him long to find a new opportunity. The 34-year-old signed one-year deal with the White Sox this week and should get most of the playing time at third base while Brent Morel is on the disabled list with a back injury. Yes, third base. Morel has been absolutely dreadful this season, so there's a chance Hudson could take the job if he gets off to a hot start. His modest speed and pending multi-position eligibility makes him worth a look.

Nick Johnson 1B, Orioles (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Look who has finally shaken the rust. Since starting the season with an 0-for-28 hitless streak, Johnson is batting .371 (13-for-35) with four homers, four doubles seven walks and 11 RBI. This includes his two-homer game against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Sure it's a very small sample and the 33-year-old can't be relied on for sustained success given his lengthy injury history, but he deserves a longer look out of the DH spot right now.

Yan Gomes 3B/C, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

Called up when Adam Lind was demoted to the minors last week, Gomes has embraced his first taste of the majors by hitting .294 (5-for-17) with two homers and five RBI in six games. The 24-year-old Brazilian native was hitting .359/.391/.565 with five homers and a .956 OPS over his first 33 games with Triple-A Las Vegas this year, well above the production he has shown in the past. Of course, that's not unusual for someone hitting in the Pacific Coast League. The Jays think they'll have enough at-bats available between third base, first base, DH and catcher to keep him on the roster, so he's worth watching as a utility type. I like him best in leagues where he qualifies at catcher.

Hector Noesi SP/RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

I gambled and lost by recommending Noesi as a "Suitable Streamer" against the White Sox back on April 20, but I still like him an awful lot. While the 24-year-old right-hander owns an ugly 5.26 ERA through nine starts this year, he has a solid 1.19 WHIP and has allowed three runs over less in four out of his last five starts. Noesi has enjoyed most of his success at home this year (3.70 ERA in four starts at Safeco Field, 6.67 ERA in five starts away), which doesn't come as a big surprise given his fly ball tendencies. Give him a shot at home this weekend against the Angels.

 

[HacheMan]

Flicks and picks to click

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

It's the reason I have to dress as a Smurf at a party some time in the next two weeks. It's the reason I spent three months last year using "Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer" as a trash-talk punch line. It's the only reason I know that Tyl
Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees: I fully admit to being a Yankee hater. But that doesn't cloud my analysis. Hey, I loved Raul Ibanez this year! Anyway, the slider does seem to be working for Pettitte in the early going, but after starts with eight and nine strikeouts respectively, people are asking: Can we invest? I'm not buying. As our Stats & Information team points out, it's the first time Pettitte has struck out at least eight batters in consecutive starts since July 2006. It's only the sixth time in his career he's struck out at least eight in back-to-back starts. Sure, maybe something has changed after six years and a season out of baseball, but I doubt it. Not a believer.


B.J. Upton, OF, Rays: I'm like Charlie Brown with the football here. Every time I think I'm done, he sucks me back in. Dangerously close to fantasy kryptonite territory, but I'm kind of buying this. Do I feel he finishes the year as a .300 hitter? No. But I also don't think he's his old batting average-killer self. Striking out less than career norms, he's also swinging at more pitches in the zone. You know the speed and power are there, so if he can be a .275 guy instead of a .235 guy? Stud. I'm on board.


Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers: We touched on this briefly on the podcast this morning, but I have never been a fan of Austin Jackson, Strikeout Machine, as he is known at TMR HQ. But I'll be damned if he has learned to take a walk. A 29-to-20 strikeout-to-walk rate this year, he is walking more and striking out less than last year by a nice margin. And yeah, we know he's fast. That ain't a fluke. I guess … I'm, ugh, I hate to say this … buying.


James McDonald, P, Pirates: In my preseason "100 Facts You Need to Know" column, I wrote the following about James McDonald: last 27 starts: 152 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9. That's useful in NL-only leagues. And he's been useful in way more leagues than that. His K/9 is now over 9, his BB/9 is under three, and he's keeping it in the park, having allowed just two home runs this year in 57 and 1/3 innings. This is a young pitcher finally coming into his own.er Perry has never opened a movie in the summer and that, this weekend, "Chernobyl Diaries" will be on more than 2,450 screens.

The month of May means predicting what happens this summer for two very important fantasy games. Baseball, of course, and my summer movie league. For those of you new to the column, about 30 of my old college friends and I have done this every year for close to a decade now. It's a lot of fun, and super-easy. I won't bore you with all the rules (there are a few wrinkles to make it more challenging), but basically, we pick 10 movies that open between Memorial Day and Labor Day (box office counts until Sept. 17), and we put them in the order we think they'll finish. What your movies gross is your score, along with bonus box-office cash for each movie you ranked correctly on your list. Most money wins. Super simple.


Our "slates" are due tonight, so here are what I predict will be the top ten movies this summer in terms of total US box office.


1. "The Dark Knight Rises." More of a franchise no-brainer than Albert Pujols, and has made more money than him as well. "Batman Begins" made over $250 million, and then "The Dark Knight," second in the Christopher Nolan trilogy re-boot (that's "Variety" speak for re-doing the same thing because no one wants to approve anything that isn't proven) grossed over $530 million. Christian Bale is back in the title role with Nolan at the helm. Can't miss.


2. "The Amazing Spider-Man." Another, ahem, "re-boot." This one is starting new, as Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst and Sam Raimi are all gone to do things that don't require tights, special effects or pretending that you like kissing Tobey Maguire (Dunst only. I think.) The first three Spideys all made over $300 million and, while this stars a relative unknown (Andrew Garfield), my guess is that America is still superhero crazy even after "The Avengers" and "Dark Knight Rises."


3. "Brave." Here are the top-grossing movies of all time that have been released in June, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. See if you notice a trend: "Transformers 3," "Toy Story 3," "Transformers 2," "WALL-E," "Ratatouille," "Cars." Are there extraterrestrial self-aware robots starring in mega-films this summer? No? Then Pixar it is.

4. "Men in Black 3." Speaking as someone who has written a second sequel many years after the first one, and even further removed from the original, not to mention one that screams "We're doing it for the cash!" I feel most qualified to speak about this movie. I don't want to like it. I don't think I will. But the people, they love Will Smith. It's in 3D (3D = more expensive movie ticket = more total box office). Per BoxOffice.com, if you adjust for inflation, the first movie made $427 million and the second movie (which was terrible) made $257 million. We're in the $190-200 million range right now and, as my friend Patrick Reardon points out (Patrick is a savant with this stuff, he works in the industry), Memorial Day weekend is almost always dominated by a big, effects-driven tentpole movie that is usually a sequel. The last few years have seen "Indiana Jones 4," "Pirates 3," "X-Men 3," "Terminator 4," "Night at the Museum 2," etc. "Hangover 2" did really well on this weekend last year. I expect the "Men" to wind up in the black. See what I did there? That was just off the top of my head. Who says I can't still write decades-old sequels no one is asking for? Someone find me the producers of "The Goonies."

5. "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted." This is where it starts to get tricky, as there are three big animated family films and it's really a pick 'em as to the order in which they'll finish. I went "Brave" at No. 3, obviously, so it's between the other two now, and with "Madagascar," it's a bit fresher (third in the series versus the fourth "Ice Age"). All the animated movies are 3D (again, more money), so for me, I just like the fact that it opens first (June 8) and really has a few weeks of the kids to itself until "Brave" opens. "Ice Age" follows July 13, and while it has the rest of the summer to itself, it still has to deal with "Brave" runoff, plus "Dark Knight Rises" opens the next week and I bet kids weasel their way into that one (I know my 7-year-old is much more excited for Batman than "Ice Age"). Each movie in the series has made at least $180 million. Polka-dot, polka-dot, afro!


6. "Ice Age: Continental Drift." BoxOfficeMojo.com's Ray Subers points out last summer's animated sequels "Kung Fu Panda 2" (minus 23 percent) and "Cars 2" (minus 21 percent) both dropped a decent amount from their predecessor, which is a fair point. And that's why I have them outside the top five. But every "Ice Age" movie has made more than the one before it, with the last one grossing over $196 million. And "Kung Fu Panda 2" still made $165 million. The 7-year-old still wants to see it, just after he's seen "Batman." I'll take that.



7. "The Bourne Legacy." Risky, because it's a huge title, but the first installment without Matt Damon. That said, Jeremy Renner has gotten a bit of face time in the last "Mission Impossible" and "Avengers," no? Did you know the last "Bourne" made over $225 million and was the highest-grossing of the series? Plus, one of them runs on HBO every three seconds.


8. "Prometheus." Opening the same weekend as "Super 8" did last year, it's another sci-fi spooky fanboy favorite, this time with Ridley Scott and set in the same universe as Scott's "Alien." It's basically got the weekend to itself (only "Madagascar," very different audience) and the next weekend is an Adam Sandler flick and "Rock of Ages." "Prometheus" is also in 3D (notice a theme) and has no competition in the space until "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Slayer" shows up (and disappears).

9. "Snow White and the Huntsman." So my wife is not a big moviegoer. Likes them fine, but it's almost always me dragging her out as opposed to the other way around. Except she mentions to me, out of the blue, she wants to see this movie because "it's got the girl from 'Twilight' in it." I mentioned this story to a bunch of female co-workers and they all nodded in a "Oh yeah I'm seeing that your wife isn't crazy" kind of way. "Hunger Games" says America also likes seeing young women kick butt. I don't get the whole "Twilight" thing (or women in general for that matter), but that doesn't mean I'm not willing to profit from it.


10. "Rock of Ages." The play is super-popular, but more importantly, so are musicals. BoxOffice.com points out that "Mamma Mia" and "Hairspray" both opened to over $27 million (and I'll mention both made over $100 million; "Mamma Mia" made $144M). Tom Cruise like you've never seen him before and songs you know by heart. I'm not worried about Adam Sandler opening that weekend, as you'll see.


I was really torn about "Ted," the Mark Wahlberg comedy from Seth MacFarlane. Liked that it moved up two weekends once "G.I. Joe" got bumped to 2013. Liked that it's an adult comedy in late June ("Bad Teacher" opened late June last year and grossed over $100 million) and the trailer has played well. Lotta fanboy buzz here too thanks to Seth's "Family Guy" audience. My sleeper of the summer. May still sneak it in there. Was really torn between that and "Rock of Ages."


Among those that didn't make the cut? Adam Sandler's "That's My Boy" (rated R, which cuts out part of his audience, plus "Rock of Ages" will take the bulk of the female audience and has to compete with "Prometheus'" sophomore weekend for the male audience), plus … did you see "Jack and Jill?" No? Well, neither did the rest of America. I'd be on board for "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" if it was done tongue-in-cheek, but the trailer suggests they're playing it straight. Remember "Jonah Hex?" Exactly. Hearing that "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" and "The Watch" are playing poorly and, while I am very tempted for a late-August comedy from Will Ferrell, it's politics. Not sure how that plays, as I suspect people will be sick of it in real life by then, so "The Campaign" doesn't make my top 10. "Hope Springs" is the only chance for a serious adult film to make a splash, and sometimes the adult film works ("The Help") and sometimes it does not ("Larry Crowne"). I say it's not top-10, though I do love Meryl Streep.


It's all educated guesswork, of course, trying to decide which movies will live up to their billing and which will flop. What is real? What's hype? Fizz or fizzle? It's the same, of course, with baseball players. What's real? What isn't? And who is going to be a blockbuster? And who will, in fact, have a bummer summer? Here's a bunch of players who, one way or the other, have not been what we expected. Stats do not include last night's games.


Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox: I went all-in on him in the preseason, so you know I'm not bailing now. Actually hitting more fly balls this year than last (39.6 percent compared to 2011's 32.1 percent), yet his HR/FB rate is 5.7 percent (career 16.4 percent). I'm buying low wherever I can.


Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros: Written about him before, so you know I think he's totally legit. His 92.5 percent contact percentage is fourth-highest in the majors. When you make contact and have speed, good things tend to happen.

Bryan LaHair, 1B/OF, Cubs: Wrote about him last week as someone I ranked much lower than everyone else for the rest of the year. Got a lot of disagreement, some of it even spelled correctly. Last seven days for LaHair? One-for-20, one run, no homers, no RBIs. But he did strike out 10 times. I'm gonna be right on this one, gang. Save yourself some embarrassment and start deleting those tweets.


Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Padres: Hitting over .300 for the year, and I'm kind of buying this. I believe the power will come soon as well, despite the home park. Pretty good batting eye, especially for a young guy, and while he's not winning any RBI titles playing for the Padres, he's been a top-20 first baseman on our Player Rater for the past month. Probably not grabbing him in 10-team mixed leagues just yet unless I had an injury, but in 12-team and deeper? Yeah.


Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: After a crazy-hot start (.389 in April, four home runs, 16 runs, 13 RBIs) he's come back to earth a little bit (.286, one home run, eight runs, three RBIs, two steals). And now he's gonna plummet. He is walking less than he has at any point in his career and actually hitting fewer fly balls than ever before either, which will make it impossible to maintain the home run pace. Sell while you still can.


Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies: He's not this good, that's for sure. The average and power are unsustainable at current levels. But he'll hit for a decent average, and he has seven home runs already this season after hitting just six all of last year. According to ESPN's Home Run Tracker, his average home run distance has increased to 391 feet from 367 last season. Wouldn't trade him because his value will be more for you than what you will get on the open market. A top-10 catcher, but not in the top eight.



Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays: No to the way, Jose. An xFIP of 3.58 should give you pause that he's not this good, but not as much as this: Look at who he has faced. He shut out the Angels and Mets, shut down the Indians, Angels and Mariners. Gave up a single run to the Royals. But against the AL East? He's faced Tampa Bay twice and has an ERA of 9.82 against them. The Orioles put up four runs in seven innings, including two homers. And the other two AL East teams that he's yet to face this season? Career 9.53 ERA versus the Red Sox, career 4.08 ERA versus the Yankees. Sell, sell, sell.


Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Angels: The truth is, a first baseman for the Angels has been hitting all along. It's just not the guy with the contract. The Halos have had to find ways to get Trumbo into the lineup, but when they have, he's produced. I don't believe the .325 average stays (BABIP is .393, .274 last season) but I don't think it's as much a fluke as you might. As Zach "The SWAN" Jones of ESPN Stats & Information points out, Trumbo's production against non-fastballs is impressive. Through Tuesday's games, when he doesn't get a fastball, he is hitting .393 this season, more than 160 points higher than last season. And when the pitch is in the strike zone, he's batting .467, which over larger samples is a pretty good indicator of a good hitter. That mark currently ties him with David Wright (.467) for the best in baseball.


R.A. Dickey, P, Mets: Totally legit. We discussed him on the pod, but did you know he's on pace for almost 200 strikeouts this year? Since the start of last season, Dickey has more quality starts than Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, among others. He is top-10 in the majors over that time frame. He has actually just snuck above the Wandy Line for me now. By the way, I've gotten a lot of requests for a Wandy Line update, so I'll do that soon.


Edwin Jackson, P, Nationals: Never been a huge Jackson guy, but something's in the water in Washington this year. And like the rest of the Nats staff, E-Jax, as only I call him, has been great. And you know what? I kinda of buy it. Before this season, he averaged 6.7 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per 9 innings. This season he has a very solid 7.67 K/9 and a career-low 1.8 BB/9. He's inducing more ground balls than his career norm and has a 3.38 ERA through nine starts. Safe spot starter in 10-team mixed leagues, and a potential buy in NL-only.


Rickie Weeks and Jemile Weeks 2B, Brewers and A's: For Rickie, sadly, I think this is legit. Which isn't good. It's not that the hits aren't falling; he's just not making contact. Striking out at a career-high rate, he just seems lost this year. I do, however, have hope for Jemile.



As Zach Jones points out, there are actually some pretty encouraging signs in terms of his development as a hitter. He's chasing way fewer pitches than he did a season ago (down from 28.4 percent to 19.9), and he's walking more than twice as much: 9.9 percent of the time versus 4.8 in 2011. He's always had a good batting eye and, given his speed and very low BABIP, I expect a correction to the batting average. So I'd trade for Jemile, but would try to trade away Rickie.
Felipe Paulino, P, Royals: Still available in 90 percent of leagues. We've always known the strikeouts were there. We've just been waiting for him to get the control under, er, control. Yeah. Just seven walks in 25 1/3 innings this year, he now has a 1.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his first four starts, which includes the Yankees twice and a pretty good Orioles team. I believe.

 

[HacheMan]

Relievers graduating to closer role

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Call it the month of the dominant setup guy-turned-closer.

Already in May, we've seen Kenley Jansen, owner of the single-season record for strikeouts per nine innings (50-plus innings) with a 16.10 mark, and David Robertson, owner of a 1.33 ERA and 124 strikeouts since the beginning of last season, "graduate" from setup to closer duty.


Robertson, unfortunately, succumbed to a strained left oblique shortly thereafter, but Jansen, in the 17 days since he took over for Javy Guerra, has converted four of five save chances with a 1.50 ERA and nine K's in six innings, even earning himself a No. 5 ranking among relief pitchers in the past 15 days on our Player Rater.


These are pitchers who, thanks to their already-sound contributions in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, became instant fantasy superstars thanks to the prospect of saves, a product of their promotions into their teams' respective ninth-inning roles.


Chalk up two more within the past week.


After going more than six weeks keeping him in a low-profile setup role, the Cincinnati Reds finally appear to have placed Aroldis Chapman in a fantasy-relevant position, that of their new closer. Chapman converted saves on Sunday and Tuesday, sandwiching Sean Marshall's eighth save of 2012 on Monday and seemingly earning the endorsement of his manager, Dusty Baker.

"Hopefully, he's graduated -- which we think he might have -- to the closer's role," Baker said. "It just depends on how often you can use him."


Baker's hesitance -- hinted with those words -- probably relates to two specific concerns: 1) the Reds' desire to use Chapman for lengthier outings, as he has recorded more than three outs in six of his 20 appearances and thrown 25 or more pitches seven times, while traditional, 21st-century closers tend to be locked into a solitary frame, and 2) Chapman's recent off-the-field concerns, including a weekend arrest for speeding and driving with an expired license and a recent lawsuit filed against the left-hander. Baker might be hedging as a manner of working Chapman more slowly into the role, merely alleviating the pressure on him.


Skills-wise, there's no question Chapman is up to the task. He has been discussed numerous times in this space, and he remains as dominating a hurler today as he was on the first day of spring training, having gone 20 appearances of 24 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run and limiting opponents to a .085 batting average. Chapman also has a 15.90 K's-per-nine ratio, which puts him on pace for the third-best single-season number in the category, as well as provides him a legitimate chance to challenge Jansen's 2011 record mark.


But what has made Chapman such a fantasy sensation -- exemplified by his 12-spot bump in this week's rankings -- has been his substantially improved command. Comparing his statistics this season to last, he has improved his walks-per-nine ratio from 7.38 to 2.59, his rate of pitches judged in the strike zone from 44 to 56 percent, his overall strike rate (swings at non-strikes included) from 59 to 63 percent and his rate of strikes on sliders from 59 to 65 percent. From the day spring camps opened, his command hasn't wavered; it's as good today as it was back then.


It's that command improvement that has fueled Chapman's No. 1 rating among relief pitching-eligible players in WHIP "points". It's a simple way of saying that his WHIP has been the most valuable of anyone at his position. Last season, Chapman had the 170th-most valuable WHIP among relief-eligibles.


Maybe that No. 6 ranking looks generous, but as Chapman was last week's highest-ranked setup man in terms of fantasy value, there shouldn't be much doubt that frequent save chances will make him a candidate to quickly challenge for the No. 1 spot among closers, too.



TOP 75 RELIEF PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 75 relief pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Motte, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Nathan, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Axford, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Hanrahan, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Valverde, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Santiago Casilla, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Myers, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Betancourt, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Perez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon League, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Putz, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Addison Reed, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Robertson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Broxton, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Soriano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Capps, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Downs, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Heath Bell, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfredo Aceves, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Huston Street, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tyler Clippard, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Santos, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Adams, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Frank Francisco, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Dolis, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Hernandez, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dale Thayer, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Casey Janssen, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian Fuentes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alexi Ogando, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Marshall, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Romo, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonny Venters, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vinnie Pestano, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Steve Cishek, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henry Rodriguez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Cook, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Walden, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Storen, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ernesto Frieri, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Javy Guerra, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joaquin Benoit, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wilton Lopez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Rodriguez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pedro Strop, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edward Mujica, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Grant Balfour, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Cashner, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Bailey, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Greg Holland, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Burnett, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kris Medlen, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Rauch, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Stammen, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Crow, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Thornton, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luis Perez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Peralta, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mitchell Boggs, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Gregerson, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Farnsworth, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Marmol, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Koji Uehara, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Arredondo, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Glen Perkins, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bryan Shaw, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Juan Cruz, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Grilli, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hector Santiago, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr></tbody></table>




In the nation's capital, meanwhile, the Washington Nationals finally tired of Henry Rodriguez's issues with walks, stripping him of his closer job on Tuesday and handing their most recent save chance to Tyler Clippard. Clippard had previously been one of the game's most accomplished setup men; from 2009-11 he logged the most relief innings (239 2/3), had the third-most relief wins (18), the seventh-most holds (64) and earned top 15 rankings among qualified relievers in ERA (2.52), WHIP (1.05) and K's-per-nine ratio (10.63).


Though Nationals manager Davey Johnson announced a committee approach to saves, Clippard's track record, as well as his having received and successfully converted the first opportunity in that arrangement, gives him the clear edge. Clippard is the team's relief leader in Wins Above Replacement (0.7) and is second in FIP (1.91), and his left-on-base percentage (65.2 percent) hints that his 3.15 ERA is about as "unlucky" as his 1.83 ERA of 2011, fueled by a 95.6 left-on-base percentage, was "lucky." While it made sense for Johnson to keep Clippard locked into the eighth inning -- and parts of the seventh and ninth when applicable -- to begin the season, Clippard's status as the team's most valuable reliever makes him a prime choice.


That's not to say Sean Burnett nor Craig Stammen might receive a save chance or two in Johnson's committee, at least in the short term, and it's why Clippard, in spite of his ERA, WHIP and K's contributions, garnered a mere No. 27 rating this week. Drew Storen's potential midseason return, too, suppresses Clippard's rank. But if we knew that Clippard would close for the Nationals for the long haul, he, like Chapman, would warrant top-10 fantasy consideration at his position.


Stammen, incidentally, is this week's highest-ranked new entrant, registering at No. 60. He's a worthwhile pickup in National League-only and deep-mixed leagues with the prospect that he might either figure into the saves mix or take over for Clippard as the team's top eighth-inning/holds option. Stammen, a so-so starting pitching prospect who had a 4.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 45 career games (43 starts) at the Triple-A level, has thrived since shifting to relief in the majors last season. Thanks mostly to a two-seam fastball, he has managed a 57.6 percent ground ball rate in 2012, and his 9.72 K's- and 1.80 walks-per-nine ratios show that he has the kind of command to handle the closer role if needed.


Chapman and Clippard, incidentally, might not be the final dominant setup men to "graduate" into the closer role this month.


The Arizona Diamondbacks might not be far off making a closer change of their own, as veteran J.J. Putz has blown three of his past eight save chances and sports a 7.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP for the season. Putz's command numbers -- 10.20 K's and 1.80 walks per nine -- might look every bit as good as in any season in his career, but he has allowed a .250 well-hit average, up from 2011's .186, and his fastball has not only diminished in velocity, going from 93.0 mph on average in 2011 to 92.4 this season, it has been pounded to the tune of .378/.429/.689 triple-slash rates.


Putz's struggles could open the door for either of his setup men, David Hernandez or Bryan Shaw, to claim the role, but it's Hernandez's performance to date that should catch fantasy owners' eyes.


Thanks to continued improvement on his breaking pitches, Hernandez has lowered his ERA, WHIP and walks-per-nine ratio while increasing his K's-per-nine ratio for a second consecutive season, his numbers in those categories thus far 2.25, 1.10, 3.15 and 13.05. Among qualified relievers, his 33 percent miss rate on swings ranks 10th in the majors, his ability to punch hitters out compensating for what is the game's second-highest fly ball rate (58.7 percent) at his position. Hernandez might be susceptible to the occasional blown save because of untimely home runs, but everything else about his game makes him look like another possible top-10 option if he gets to close.


Hernandez remains available in 99.0 percent of ESPN leagues, or more than Shaw, who has allowed five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his past eight appearances. If he's available in your deep-mixed league, you're scouting for cheap saves and have the bench space, consider adding Hernandez now.

 

[HacheMan]

The Machine Returns to Form
Veterans returning to form highlight this week’s edition.



Before getting started, let me remind you to tune in to hear Rick Wolf and me on Colton and the Wolfman on SiriusXM fantasy sports radio Tuesday nights from 8-11pm eastern time. It’s a fun three hours of sports, fantasy and goofy humor.



Ok, now back to business . . . .



Albert Pujols: Albert Pujols homered again Saturday, giving him four homers in his last five games. The Machine’s performance thus far proves two roto truisms. First, great players do not suddenly fall of the shelf because they had bad starts. Patience is required. Second, when deciding how much to pay for a big money player who just changed teams for a mega contract, devalue that player by 20% or more. Invariably, they get off to slow starts, press to show they deserve the big contract and are desperate to prove their value to their new teammates and fans. Will Pujols hit 30 HR? Yes. Will he go .320-40-120 that many paid for? Not this year. Not after the predictable horrid start. Lesson learned?



Cliff Lee: Cliff Lee did what Cliff Lee does this year -- he pitched pretty well but did not win. Indeed, despite a 2.82 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, and a 47/8 K/BB ratio, Lee has not won a single game this year. Obviously, he will not go winless all year even with the anemic Philly bats. If there is a Lee owner in your league who doesn’t love those ratios because he or she is focused on wins, fleece the fool.



Ryan Dempster: On Friday, Ryan Dempster allowed one run on seven hits, stuck out six and lost anyway. Like Cliff Lee, Dempster has been great this year but has no wins to show for it. Of course, with a 2.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 50 K in just over 50 innings, Dempster has provided substantial value. Unlike Lee, Dempster pitches for a team that will stay bad all year. So, if you need ratios and K’s, Dempster is your man. If you need wins, not so much. Final note here -- Dempster’s success this year was foreseeable to those who parsed last year’s performance carefully. After a bad April, Dempster was strong from May-September. The astute owner knew that and got a bargain.



Yovani Gallardo: Yovani Gallardo looked good last night beating the DBacks. Gallardo gave up just one run on five hits in 7 1/3 innings. Gallardo represents another strong buy low candidate. His numbers thus far -- 3 wins and a 4.19 ERA are pedestrian. However, he has been very good in 8 of ten outings (with the other two skewing the numbers). Don’t forget that this is a pitcher who has averaged 204 strikeouts and a 3.69 ERA over the last three years. Buy, Buy, Buy.



Heath Bell: In our inaugural Colton and the Wolfman, I predicted that Heath Bell would get his saves by year’s end but he would do it ugly, with ugly ratios. Last night was one of those ugly nights. Bell came in with a three run ninth inning lead and gave up hits to three out of the four batters he faced. Fortunately for the Fish, Steve Cishek came in and nailed the door closed. Thus far this year, Bell has an 8.10 ERA and 2.10 WHIP (yes you read that right, and yes those are truly ugly). But he does have 7 saves and thus is on pace to get at least 25 if things continue. If you own Bell, you need to own Cishek too as he will vulture a bunch of the saves on nights like Friday where Bell just doesn’t have it.



Chipper Jones: Chipper Jones was placed on the DL with a calf injury. It is no surprise that Jones is missing time at 40 years old. If you own Jones, you should own Juan Francisco too. The former Red will play most every day over the next two weeks and will try and hit enough to force the Braves to find a place for him in the lineup even when Chipper returns. Unfortunately for Francisco, the numbers are not great so far -- .200 average with 26K and only 3 BB. However, don’t forget that hit .307 in AAA last year with 15 HR in 300 AB. Speculate in deep leagues.



Ramon Hernandez: Ramon Hernandez landed on the DL with a left hand strain this week. While he is gone, Wilin Rosario will get the lion’s share of the time behind the dish and the chance to show his stuff. Those in both deep and keeper leagues should take notice. So far, Rosario has been as advertised -- good power (6 HR in 75 AB) and weak average (.227). If you can afford the batting average hit and need power, Rosario will make a nice addition. If you are in a keeper league, remember he is only 23 and the average will rise with experience. As to Hernandez, at 36, these two weeks off could be a blessing. He was hitting only .215 after hitting .282 a season ago.



Matt Hague: The Pirates, who are desperate for hitting, called up Matt Hague and are saying that he will get a chance to play at 1B. Don’t get too excited however. At 26 (pretty old for the minors), Hague has only one homer in 144 at-bats with Indianapolis at a very pedestrian .278. I would save my FAAB and let someone else do a Brad Eldred (i.e., pay a lot for a guy whose track record says fail but who manager proclaims “he will play”). If you don’t know it, Eldred made it about a week before being DFA’d.



John Danks: John Danks landed on the shelf with a sore left shoulder this week. This has many saying “told you so.” In other words, many were speculating that the very talented Danks must be nursing an injury as there is no other explanation for his uncharacteristically bad performance. Roto lesson -- talented young lefties with significant major league experience don’t just fall of the shelf. There has to be a cause and that is typically injury. Just something to think about in the future.



Josh Tomlin: Josh Tomlin will rejoin the Cleveland rotation Monday and be a two start pitcher, facing the Royals Monday and Minnesota next weekend. Two starts, two struggling teams, nice opportunity for a FAAB pickup. Tomlin doesn’t throw hard and is not exciting, however, he has been effective. This year he has 27K against just 8 BB. That is what he does. From 2010-2011, Tomlin posted 159K to just 47 BB, or better than 3:1. If Tomlin is on your league’s waiver wire, change that before Monday.



And last and but not least, this from the Baron of the Bottom of the Page -- Schultz says: “Unofficially, Memorial Day weekend marks the beginning of the summer, permits linen clothing to be fashionably acceptable and kicks off the dumping season in too many rotisserie baseball leagues. Schultz (yes, we are using the third person for the holidays) does not have a problem with those who smartly realize that the present year is a lost cause and start looking ahead to the future. Schultz does have a great amount of angst for those that are quick to pull the trigger and stampede towards the dumping grounds. To Schultz, these owners in your league are the equivalent of the awkward child that gives away his toys so the other kids will play with him. It's a desperate plea for attention and probably deserves some sort of roto-intervention.



Memorial Day is simply too early to start packing it in for the next year. Just two months ago, you were atwitter with anticipation, sitting with your friends bragging about the championship team you just put together and composing preliminary notes for the awards presentation you would conduct in your own mind once you've won. Despite the fact that we've just passed the quarter-mark for the season, there is a lot of baseball to go. Players like Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols and Tim Lincecum aren't going to continue to be abject disappointments (well, Lincecum might) and Cliff Lee is bound to win a game sometime in June. While you may have a sense that your team is in trouble, it's simply too early to start giving away all your nice things. Schultz is sure you have guys in your league that absolutely love dumping - Schultz also suspects that they do it year after year after year without any self reflection as to why that pattern repeats itself.



Memorial Day shouldn't be a time for giving up. To anyone that's going to consider planning ahead for 2013 this weekend, let me be your Vito Corleone and answer your Johnny Fontaine "what should I do?" with a slap to the face and an order to act like a man. (Schultz apologizes to any female readers. The Godfather was not a paean to female empowerment). If you are in the bottom tier of your league, look over your roster and figure out why you are deficient in certain categories. If it's underproduction, there may be cause for hope; if it's injuries, players heal; if you are loaded in one category at the expense of another, make a prudent trade that can help you now. The one thing I doubt you will see is that you are anchoring your league while getting everything you expected out of the team that you drafted. Before you take a hacksaw to your creation, maybe try and fix it first.



If all continues to go wrong, there will be time for dumping later. In the meantime, have a backbone and fight. Trust me, you will have more fun.”



Response: Drat! I hate it when Schultz tells it like it is. There is nothing to criticize here. Dump trades kill the integrity of leagues, make it less fun for all and cause angst, grief and accusations. But, have no fear, if there is a trade in your league and you think it should be vetoed, call it in to Colton and the Wolfman on Tuesday night and we will decide for you!



Final thoughts: While Memorial Day is a holiday in the sense that it marks the beginning of summer and means barbecues and parties to many, we should never forget what Memorial Day really is -- a day to remember and thank all the brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice in the name of freedom for this great nation of ours

 

[HacheMan]

Forecaster: May 28-June 3

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

On tap: Memorial Day kicks off fantasy's Week 8, and it's a Monday that is unusually packed. All 30 teams are scheduled to play, and there's even a scheduled -- as in, planned in advance of the season -- doubleheader, as the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies tangle at Coors Field before both teams take Tuesday off. The odd schedule also results in only three games being played Thursday, one of those the Astros-Rockies series finale, meaning a greater prospect of midweek rotation shuffling than usual. If you're hanging your hat on a lesser-known two-start pitcher, tread carefully. You wouldn't want to be an AL-only owner taking a chance on Oakland Athletics right-hander Graham Godfrey, for example, assuming he's guaranteed two turns. A poor Monday outing could cost him his second turn, not to mention that Brandon McCarthy, on pace for a minimum DL stay, could soon be a candidate to reclaim his rotation spot.

Matt Kemp maintains that he'll return to the Los Angeles Dodgers' lineup when initially eligible on Tuesday. That'd give him six out of the team's seven games for the week, and as three of those will be Coors Field games -- not to mention that 24 teams will play only six games all week -- he's well worth getting into weekly lineups, barring any type of weekend setback with his hamstring.


Manny Ramirez, owner of a lifetime .312 batting average and 555 home runs but only a .271 average with 19 homers and 77 RBIs in his past 162 big league games played, becomes eligible for reinstatement from the suspended list Wednesday, which coincidentally is his 40th birthday. Oakland Athletics manager Bob Melvin, however, has said that he wants Ramirez to get approximately 40 at-bats during his current rehabilitation stint for Triple-A Sacramento, meaning that a Wednesday return isn't assured. Fantasy owners in weekly leagues might want to wait on activating Ramirez, a .250 hitter (4-for-16) through his first five rehab games, because he's only eligible for a maximum of four of six Athletics games.


Memorial Day tends to be an important date on the fantasy calendar, partly because of the percentage of the season it signifies has been completed. Entering Monday's games, 29.4 percent of the 2012 regular season will already be in the books. It's at this time of year that fantasy league standings should be taken more seriously, and if you're hurting in a particular area, it's as good a time as any to address the weakness with pickups or trades.


ESPN leagues: Week 8



The Memorial Day holiday also causes an early lineup deadline Monday, as there are three games that begin at 1:10 p.m. ET. But as always, it's an excellent day for baseball, with start times scattered throughout the day; you could conceivably watch baseball nonstop from 1:10 p.m. until almost midnight. These are the specific start times of the first games each day:



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Date</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Time (ET)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Teams</th><th style="width: 1px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Date</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Time (ET)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Teams</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Mon 5/28</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:10 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">ATL, MIA, NYM,
PHI, STL, WAS</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Fri 6/1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">ATL, CLE, DET, MIA,
MIN, NYY, PHI, WAS</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Tue 5/29</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2:20 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CHC, SD</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Sat 6/2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:07 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">BOS, TOR</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Wed 5/30</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CLE, KC</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Sun 6/3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">DET, NYY</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Thu 5/31</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7:10 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">BOS, DET</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>




Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
Probable starting pitchers | Week 8 pitcher rankings | Pitching notes
Streamer's delight | Hitting ratings | Hitting notes


Projected starting pitchers



The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Team </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Mon
5/28 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Tue
5/29 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Wed
5/30 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Thu
5/31 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Fri
6/1 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sat
6/2 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sun
6/3 </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TOR
Matusz
(LHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
Arrieta
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
Hammel
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
Chen
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
Hunter
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TB
Matusz
(LHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> DET
Doubront
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> DET
Bard
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
Lester
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
Beckett
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TOR
Doubront
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TOR
Bard
(RHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TB
Sale
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
Humber
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
Quintana
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
Peavy
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
Floyd
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SEA
Sale
(LHP)
P: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> KC
Tomlin
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> KC
Masterson
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> KC
Gomez
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
Lowe
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIN
Tomlin
(RHP)
P: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @BOS
Fister
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @BOS
Verlander
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
Smyly
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
Porcello
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYY
Fister
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYY
Verlander
(RHP)
P: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CLE
Smith
(LHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
TBD

P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
Chen
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
Paulino
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
Hochevar
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> OAK
Smith
(LHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYY
Weaver
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
Haren
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
Santana
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
Williams
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TEX
Weaver
(RHP)
P: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> OAK
Diamond
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
DeVries
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
Swarzak
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
Pavano
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
Walters
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CLE
Diamond
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @LAA
Hughes
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
Pettitte
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
Nova
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
Sabathia
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
Kuroda
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @DET
Hughes
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @MIN
Godfrey
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
Parker
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
Ross
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
Colon
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
Milone
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @KC
Godfrey
(RHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TEX
Millwood
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
Vargas
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
Beavan
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
Noesi
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CHW
Millwood
(RHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CHW
Moore
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
Shields
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
Cobb
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Price
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> BAL
Moore
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SEA
Harrison
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
Feldman
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
Holland
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
Lewis
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
Darvish
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @LAA
Harrison
(LHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> BAL
Hutchison
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Romero
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Morrow
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BOS
Alvarez
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BOS
Drabek
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> BOS
Hutchison
(RHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SF
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
Saunders
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
Kennedy
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
Miley
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SD
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> STL
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
Delgado
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
Minor
(LHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
Beachy
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @WAS
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SD
Wood
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
Samardzija
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
Dempster
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
Maholm
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
Garza
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SF
Wood
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @PIT
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PIT
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PIT
Cueto
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @HOU
Leake
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @HOU
Latos
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @HOU
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> HOU-2
Nicasio
(RHP)
P: 4
White
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
Friedrich
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
Guthrie
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAD
Moyer
(LHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> LAD
Nicasio
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> LAD
White
(RHP)
P: 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @COL-2
W.Rdrguez
(LHP)
P: 5
Lyles
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
Harrell
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
Norris
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
Happ
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CIN
W.Rdrguez
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CIN
Lyles
(RHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIL
Harang
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIL
Lilly
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
Kershaw
(LHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
Capuano
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @COL
Harang
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @COL
Lilly
(LHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> WAS
Zambrano
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> WAS
Sanchez
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> WAS
Johnson
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @PHI
Zambrano
(RHP)
P: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @LAD
Marcum
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @LAD
Parra
(LHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
Gallardo
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
Greinke
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
Wolf
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> PIT
Marcum
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> PIT
Parra
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> PHI
Niese
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
Hefner
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
Gee
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
Santana
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
Dickey
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> STL
Niese
(LHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @NYM
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
Blanton
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
Lee
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
Kendrick
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
Halladay
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIA
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CIN
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
Morton
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
Burnett
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
Correia
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @MIL
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @ATL
Lynn
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
Westbrook
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
Lohse
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
Garcia
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
Wainwright
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @NYM
Lynn
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CHC
Suppan
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
Stults
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
Bass
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Richard
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Volquez
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> ARI
Suppan
(RHP)
P: 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> ARI
Zito
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Vogelsong
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
Bumgarner
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
Cain
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CHC
Zito
(LHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @MIA
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIA
Jackson
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIA
Detwiler
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ATL
Strasburg
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ATL
Gonzalez
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> ATL
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 7 </td></tr></tbody></table>P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.




Tristan's Week 8 pitcher rankings: Top 75



1. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Tue-@BOS (Bard), Sun-NYY (Hughes)
2. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Mon-@NYM (Niese), Sun-MIA (Zambrano)
3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Wed-MIL (Gallardo)
4. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Mon-NYY (Hughes), Sun-TEX (Harrison)
5. Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) -- Mon-@MIA (Zambrano), Sun-ATL (Hanson)
6. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Fri-@CHW (Peavy)
7. Brandon Beachy (ATL) -- Sat-@WAS (Gonzalez)
8. Matt Cain (SF) -- Sat-CHC (Garza)
9. Zack Greinke (MIL) -- Thu-@LAD (Billingsley)
10. Roy Halladay (PHI) -- Sat-MIA (Nolasco)
11. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Wed-@NYM (Gee)
12. Tommy Hanson (ATL) -- Mon-STL (Lynn), Sun-@WAS (Zimmermann)
13. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) -- Fri-ATL (Minor)
14. Gio Gonzalez (WAS) -- Sat-ATL (Beachy)
15. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Fri-CHC (Maholm)
16. Shaun Marcum (MIL) -- Mon-@LAD (Harang), Sat-PIT (Bedard)
17. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Fri-@DET (Porcello)
18. David Price (TB) -- Fri-BAL (Chen)
19. Brandon Morrow (TOR) -- Wed-BAL (Hammel)
20. James McDonald (PIT) -- Mon-CIN (Arroyo), Sun-@MIL (Parra)
21. Jake Peavy (CHW) -- Fri-SEA (Hernandez)
22. Josh Johnson (MIA) -- Wed-WAS (Detwiler)
23. James Shields (TB) -- Tue-CHW (Humber)
24. Johnny Cueto (CIN) -- Wed-@PIT (Burnett)
25. Chris Sale (CHW) -- Mon-@TB (Moore), Sun-SEA (Millwood)
26. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Wed-DET (Smyly)
27. Anibal Sanchez (MIA) -- Tue-WAS (Jackson)
28. Dan Haren (LAA) -- Tue-NYY (Pettitte)
29. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Sat-TEX (Darvish)
30. Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) -- Mon-@COL, Gm. 1 (Nicasio), Sat-CIN (Latos)
31. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Sat-@HOU (Rodriguez)
32. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Sat-@NYM (Dickey)
33. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Sat-@LAA (Wilson)
34. Carlos Zambrano (MIA) -- Mon-WAS (Zimmermann), Sun-@PHI (Hamels)
35. Matt Garza (CHC) -- Sat-@SF (Cain)
36. Ian Kennedy (ARI) -- Wed-@SF (Lincecum)
37. Ted Lilly (LAD) -- Tue-MIL (Parra), Sun-@COL (White)
38. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Wed-@LAD (Kershaw)
39. Doug Fister (DET) -- Mon-@BOS (Doubront), Sat-NYY (Kuroda)
40. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Sat-BAL (Hunter)
41. Lance Lynn (STL) -- Mon-@ATL (Hanson), Sun-@NYM (Niese)
42. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) -- Tue-ARI (Saunders)
43. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Wed-ARI (Kennedy)
44. Daniel Hudson (ARI) -- Sat-@SD (Volquez)
45. Tim Hudson (ATL) -- Wed-STL (Lohse)
46. Bud Norris (HOU) -- Thu-@COL (Guthrie)
47. Matt Moore (TB) -- Mon-CHW (Sale), Sun-BAL (Matusz)
48. Jaime Garcia (STL) -- Fri-@NYM (Santana)
49. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) -- Tue-SD (Stults)
50. Matt Harrison (TEX) -- Mon-SEA (Millwood), Sun-@LAA (Weaver)
51. Andy Pettitte (NYY) -- Tue-@LAA (Haren)
52. Trevor Cahill (ARI) -- Mon-@SF (Zito), Sun-@SD (Suppan)
53. Colby Lewis (TEX) -- Fri-@LAA (Williams)
54. Gavin Floyd (CHW) -- Sat-SEA (Noesi)
55. Ryan Dempster (CHC) -- Wed-SD (Bass)
56. Phil Hughes (NYY) -- Mon-@LAA (Weaver), Sun-@DET (Verlander)
57. Ricky Romero (TOR) -- Tue-BAL (Arrieta)
58. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Mon-@PIT (McDonald), Sun-@HOU (Lyles)
59. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Sat-MIN (Walters)
60. Johan Santana (NYM) -- Fri-STL (Garcia)
61. Edwin Jackson (WAS) -- Tue-@MIA (Sanchez)
62. Ervin Santana (LAA) -- Wed-NYY (Nova)
63. Derek Holland (TEX) -- Wed-SEA (Beavan)
64. Josh Beckett (BOS) -- Thu-DET (Scherzer)
65. R.A. Dickey (NYM) -- Sat-STL (Wainwright)
66. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Mon-PHI (Hamels), Sun-STL (Lynn)
67. Felix Doubront (BOS) -- Mon-DET (Fister), Sat-@TOR (Drabek)
68. Felipe Paulino (KC) -- Fri-OAK (Colon)
69. Anthony Bass (SD) -- Wed-@CHC (Dempster)
70. Chad Billingsley (LAD) -- Thu-MIL (Greinke)
71. Alex Cobb (TB) -- Wed-CHW (Quintana)
72. Tommy Milone (OAK) -- Sat-@KC (Hochevar)
73. Scott Diamond (MIN) -- Mon-OAK (Godfrey), Sun-@CLE (Tomlin)
74. Wade Miley (ARI) -- Fri-@SD (Richard)
75. Luke Hochevar (KC) -- Sat-OAK (Milone)


Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Aaron Harang (LAD) -- Mon-MIL (Marcum), Sat-@COL (Nicasio)
Brian Matusz (BAL) -- Mon-@TOR (Hutchison), Sun-@TB (Moore)
Kevin Millwood (SEA) -- Mon-@TEX (Harrison), Sun-@CHW (Sale)
Barry Zito (SF) -- Mon-ARI (Cahill), Sun-CHC (Wood)




No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Daniel Bard (BOS) -- Tue-DET (Verlander), Sun-@TOR (Hutchison)
Graham Godfrey (OAK) -- Mon-@MIN (Diamond), Sun-@KC (Smith)
Drew Hutchison (TOR) -- Mon-BAL (Matusz), Sun-BOS (Bard)
Jordan Lyles (HOU) -- Mon-@COL, Gm. 2 (White), Sun-CIN (Arroyo)
Josh Tomlin (CLE) -- Mon-KC (Smith), Sun-MIN (Diamond)
Juan Nicasio (COL) -- Mon-HOU, Gm. 1 (Rodriguez), Sat-LAD (Harang)
Manny Parra (MIL) -- Tue-@LAD (Lilly), Sun-PIT (McDonald)
Will Smith (KC) -- Mon-@CLE (Tomlin), Sun-OAK (Godfrey)
Jeff Suppan (SD) -- Mon-@CHC (Wood), Sun-ARI (Cahill)
Alex White (COL) -- Mon-HOU, Gm. 2 (Lyles), Sun-LAD (Lilly)
Travis Wood (CHC) -- Mon-SD (Suppan), Sun-@SF (Zito)
</p.<b></p>

Pitching notes



• This is the week for the Philadelphia Phillies to get themselves in order, as they battle the two teams directly ahead of them in the National League East, the New York Mets (Monday-Wednesday at Citi Field) and the Washington Nationals (Friday-Sunday at Citizens Bank Park); two teams that, while sporting middle-of-the-pack offensive ratings for both the month and season, haven't exactly been lighting up scoreboards in recent games. Having Cole Hamels as their two-start pitcher gives the Phillies the kind of advantage Baseball Challenge owners love; that alone provides them the edge they need to be my Week 8 pick. Hamels has eight consecutive quality starts, and while his four losses and 4.43 ERA in seven career starts at New York's Citi Field might be troubling, he's more than capable of snapping that funk in his first turn there this year. Among my other recommended Baseball Challenge pitching staffs: Cincinnati Reds (@PIT-3, @HOU-3), Texas Rangers (SEA-3, @LAA-3), Arizona Diamondbacks (@SF-3, @SD-3) and Cleveland Indians (KC-3, MIN-3).


• The Pittsburgh Pirates remain one of the most attractive matchups for an opposing pitcher, and recently they've been especially so: Opposing starters have 16 quality starts, a 3.03 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.63 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 22 games in the month of May. Four of the past eight starters to face the Pirates, in fact, managed both a quality start and double-digit strikeouts. Among this week's standouts with at least one Pirates matchup: Bronson Arroyo (Monday), who has a 2.94 ERA in eight career starts at PNC Park; Homer Bailey (Tuesday), who is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four career starts at PNC; Johnny Cueto (Wednesday), who is 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine career starts at PNC; and Shaun Marcum (Saturday), who has three quality starts in four career games versus the Pirates.


• Diminishing fastball velocity and a rising walk rate might ultimately be unraveling Ubaldo Jimenez's season, but his owners should afford him one more chance -- at least in AL-only or deep mixed leagues -- considering the strength of his Saturday matchup. He's a perfect 3-for-3 in quality starts in his career versus the Minnesota Twins with a 2.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and current Twins are a combined .245/.344/.302 with only three extra-base hits, all doubles, against him.


• It's the strength of Matt Harrison's first matchup that supports his candidacy as a two-start standout. He has eight consecutive quality starts versus the Seattle Mariners, his Monday opponent, and a 1.95 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in those games, and tossed seven innings of one-run, seven-hit baseball to defeat them at Safeco Field on May 22. And in defense of Harrison's second start, Sunday at the Los Angeles Angels, being a non-scary matchup, he won his only career start at Angel Stadium last Sept. 28, and has afforded .247/.319/.420 lifetime triple-slash rates to current Angels hitters, numbers that are within range of the major league averages.


• Derek Holland, Harrison's Texas Rangers teammate, also warrants consideration in all formats in his one start versus the Mariners. Holland has five wins, five quality starts, a 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 9.00 K's-per-nine ratio in his seven career starts against the Mariners, including a 7 1/3-inning, two-run, five-hit, eight-strikeout performance for a victory April 12.


• Take a look at Trevor Cahill among more under-the-radar two-start pitchers. Between his 64.0 percent ground-ball rate and his two turns coming at two of the 10 best pitchers' parks for runs scored and two of the top five for home runs, San Francisco's AT&T Park (Monday) and San Diego's Petco Park (Sunday), he's a lower-risk deeper-league option than you might think. Giants hitters, incidentally, are a combined .200/.314/.267 in their careers versus Cahill, while Padres hitters are a combined .222/.417/.278 versus the right-hander.


• Forgive Anibal Sanchez his mediocre May 24 start, because his Tuesday matchup versus the Washington Nationals is about as automatic as they come for him. He's 7-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 18 career starts against the Nationals, and in fact has six quality starts, a 1.17 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 9.67 K's-per-nine innings ratio in eight games against them since the midway point of 2010.


Streamer's delight



Among streaming-starter (something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer) options for Week 8, here are my picks by day:


Monday, May 28: Matt Harrison versus Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, May 29: Homer Bailey at Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, May 30: Anthony Bass at Chicago Cubs
Thursday, May 31: Jeremy Guthrie is the only under-25-percent-owned pitcher scheduled on this date; he is not a recommended streaming option.
Friday, June 1: Felipe Paulino versus Oakland Athletics
Saturday, June 2: Tommy Milone at Kansas City Royals
Sunday, June 3: Trevor Cahill at San Diego Padres


Past picks
Friday, May 18: Jarrod Parker -- 2 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 0 K
Saturday, May 19: Ryan Vogelsong -- W, QS, 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Sunday, May 20: Henderson Alvarez -- 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Monday, May 21: Tommy Milone -- W, QS, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Tuesday, May 22: Phil Hughes -- W, QS, 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Wednesday, May 23: Jonathon Niese -- W, QS, 7 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Thursday, May 24: Philip Humber -- 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K


Week's total: 7 GS, 4 W (57.1%), 4 QS (57.1%), 39 IP, 35 H, 21 ER, 15 BB, 27 K, 4.85 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Season total: 44 GS, 22 W (50.0%), 29 QS (65.9%), 278 IP, 233 H, 92 ER, 87 BB, 201 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP


Hitting ratings



The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Team </center></th><th style="width: 12%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Games </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Overall
Rating </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Mon
5/28 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Tue
5/29 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Wed
5/30 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Thu
5/31 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Fri
6/1 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sat
6/2 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sun
6/3 </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 3
L: 6
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
H: 5
L: 9
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
4 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 7
L: 10
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TOR
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 4
L: 3
R: 4
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 4
L: 7
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
3 vs. L
2 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> KC
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> KC
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> KC
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 5
L: 8
R: 4
S: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
3 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 4
R: 6
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
H: 4
L: 3
R: 6
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 7
R: 3
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
H: 10
L: 10
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
H: 4
L: 7
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYY
H: 8
L: 7
R: 9
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
H: 5
L: 9
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
H: 7
L: 7
R: 8
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> OAK
H: 6
L: 9
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
H: 3
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CLE
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 7
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 6
L: 2
R: 8
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 7
L: 2
R: 10
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 7
L: 1
R: 8
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
H: 3
L: 2
R: 4
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
4 vs. L
2 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 6
L: 9
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 7
L: 9
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 8
L: 1
R: 10
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 9
L: 10
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 9
L: 1
R: 10
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 9
L: 10
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BOS
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BOS
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BOS
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
H: 6
L: 9
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
H: 10
L: 10
R: 9
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 3
L: 6
R: 2
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 4
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 2
L: 5
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 3
L: 1
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PIT
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PIT
H: 8
L: 10
R: 4
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PIT
H: 6
L: 4
R: 8
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @HOU
H: 8
L: 4
R: 9
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @HOU
H: 5
L: 1
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @HOU
H: 9
L: 10
R: 8
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
7 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 10
L: 7
R: 10
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU-2
H: 6
L: 1
R: 8
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAD
H: 6
L: 1
R: 7
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAD
H: 10
L: 10
R: 8
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAD
H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
3 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 10
L: 10
R: 6
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL-2
H: 9
L: 10
R: 6
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 7
L: 10
R: 4
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
H: 7
L: 9
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
H: 6
L: 10
R: 2
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
4 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 8
L: 5
R: 9
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 9
L: 5
R: 10
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 9
L: 10
R: 6
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 10
L: 10
R: 7
S: 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> WAS
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> WAS
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> WAS
H: 7
L: 2
R: 8
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
3 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 3
L: 3
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 8
L: 6
R: 9
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 1
L: 3
R: 2
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 4
L: 1
R: 5
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 4
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
H: 5
L: 8
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 6
L: 5
R: 8
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
H: 6
L: 10
R: 2
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
H: 7
L: 7
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CIN
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
H: 6
L: 2
R: 7
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 1
L: 5
R: 1
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 2
L: 5
R: 1
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
H: 3
L: 5
R: 2
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYM
H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 3
L: 3
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 2
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 9
L: 1
R: 10
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 4
L: 5
R: 2
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
H: 7
L: 1
R: 9
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 1
L: 3
R: 2
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIA
H: 3
L: 3
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIA
H: 3
L: 2
R: 4
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ATL
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ATL
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ATL
H: 2
L: 5
R: 1
S: 8 </td></tr></tbody></table>Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.




Hitting notes



• Coors Field games tend to suit Dodgers hitters and, as mentioned above, the team is expected to have Matt Kemp back in the lineup before their weekend series begins in Colorado. Kemp, incidentally, has six homers in his past 14 games at Coors, and he's a .322/.400/.612 lifetime hitter with 11 homers there in 48 contests, if you had any doubt about whether he's worth immediately slotting back into your lineup. Among other Dodgers with impressive career Coors stats: James Loney (.331/.378/.569 triple-slash rates in 49 games), Andre Ethier (.290/.371/.452 in 47 games) and A.J. Ellis (.375 AVG in 7 games). Dee Gordon, incidentally, hit his only career home run (397 career plate appearances) at Coors, on May 1.


• The Tampa Bay Rays are a team that likes to exploit platoon splits, which is why their league-high four games versus left-handed starters puts two of their players under the microscope: B.J. Upton is a .324/.405/.618 triple-slash hitter versus lefties this season, .266/.373/.434 in his career; while Sean Rodriguez is a .316/.426/.342 hitter against them this season, .266/.367/.414 in his career. Upton is an obvious start in all formats this week, but it's Rodriguez who could be a handy plug-in if you're in an AL-only or deep mixed league. He's typically best used in weeks with at least three lefty starters scheduled.


• It's a rare week where the New York Yankees' hitting matchups are questionable, as they'll face both Jered Weaver (Monday) and Justin Verlander (Sunday), both of whom rank among the top five starting pitchers on our Player Rater, as well as three more talented right-handers in Dan Haren (Tuesday), Ervin Santana (Wednesday) and Doug Fister (Saturday). Couple that schedule with the team's recent offensive funk -- .226/.320/.383 team rates in their past 11 games -- and you can feel free to be picky with your Yankees for once. One who should not sit, however, is Raul Ibanez. Though he's a better fantasy play in Yankee Stadium games, he'll almost assuredly start all six games against right-handed starters, he's a .272/.333/.592 hitter versus righties this season, and he's an absurd .519/.606/1.037 lifetime hitter versus Weaver.

 

[HacheMan]

The Machine Returns to Form
Veterans returning to form highlight this week’s edition.



Before getting started, let me remind you to tune in to hear Rick Wolf and me on Colton and the Wolfman on SiriusXM fantasy sports radio Tuesday nights from 8-11pm eastern time. It’s a fun three hours of sports, fantasy and goofy humor.



Ok, now back to business . . . .



Albert Pujols: Albert Pujols homered again Saturday, giving him four homers in his last five games. The Machine’s performance thus far proves two roto truisms. First, great players do not suddenly fall of the shelf because they had bad starts. Patience is required. Second, when deciding how much to pay for a big money player who just changed teams for a mega contract, devalue that player by 20% or more. Invariably, they get off to slow starts, press to show they deserve the big contract and are desperate to prove their value to their new teammates and fans. Will Pujols hit 30 HR? Yes. Will he go .320-40-120 that many paid for? Not this year. Not after the predictable horrid start. Lesson learned?



Cliff Lee: Cliff Lee did what Cliff Lee does this year -- he pitched pretty well but did not win. Indeed, despite a 2.82 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, and a 47/8 K/BB ratio, Lee has not won a single game this year. Obviously, he will not go winless all year even with the anemic Philly bats. If there is a Lee owner in your league who doesn’t love those ratios because he or she is focused on wins, fleece the fool.



Ryan Dempster: On Friday, Ryan Dempster allowed one run on seven hits, stuck out six and lost anyway. Like Cliff Lee, Dempster has been great this year but has no wins to show for it. Of course, with a 2.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 50 K in just over 50 innings, Dempster has provided substantial value. Unlike Lee, Dempster pitches for a team that will stay bad all year. So, if you need ratios and K’s, Dempster is your man. If you need wins, not so much. Final note here -- Dempster’s success this year was foreseeable to those who parsed last year’s performance carefully. After a bad April, Dempster was strong from May-September. The astute owner knew that and got a bargain.



Yovani Gallardo: Yovani Gallardo looked good last night beating the DBacks. Gallardo gave up just one run on five hits in 7 1/3 innings. Gallardo represents another strong buy low candidate. His numbers thus far -- 3 wins and a 4.19 ERA are pedestrian. However, he has been very good in 8 of ten outings (with the other two skewing the numbers). Don’t forget that this is a pitcher who has averaged 204 strikeouts and a 3.69 ERA over the last three years. Buy, Buy, Buy.



Heath Bell: In our inaugural Colton and the Wolfman, I predicted that Heath Bell would get his saves by year’s end but he would do it ugly, with ugly ratios. Last night was one of those ugly nights. Bell came in with a three run ninth inning lead and gave up hits to three out of the four batters he faced. Fortunately for the Fish, Steve Cishek came in and nailed the door closed. Thus far this year, Bell has an 8.10 ERA and 2.10 WHIP (yes you read that right, and yes those are truly ugly). But he does have 7 saves and thus is on pace to get at least 25 if things continue. If you own Bell, you need to own Cishek too as he will vulture a bunch of the saves on nights like Friday where Bell just doesn’t have it.



Chipper Jones: Chipper Jones was placed on the DL with a calf injury. It is no surprise that Jones is missing time at 40 years old. If you own Jones, you should own Juan Francisco too. The former Red will play most every day over the next two weeks and will try and hit enough to force the Braves to find a place for him in the lineup even when Chipper returns. Unfortunately for Francisco, the numbers are not great so far -- .200 average with 26K and only 3 BB. However, don’t forget that hit .307 in AAA last year with 15 HR in 300 AB. Speculate in deep leagues.



Ramon Hernandez: Ramon Hernandez landed on the DL with a left hand strain this week. While he is gone, Wilin Rosario will get the lion’s share of the time behind the dish and the chance to show his stuff. Those in both deep and keeper leagues should take notice. So far, Rosario has been as advertised -- good power (6 HR in 75 AB) and weak average (.227). If you can afford the batting average hit and need power, Rosario will make a nice addition. If you are in a keeper league, remember he is only 23 and the average will rise with experience. As to Hernandez, at 36, these two weeks off could be a blessing. He was hitting only .215 after hitting .282 a season ago.



Matt Hague: The Pirates, who are desperate for hitting, called up Matt Hague and are saying that he will get a chance to play at 1B. Don’t get too excited however. At 26 (pretty old for the minors), Hague has only one homer in 144 at-bats with Indianapolis at a very pedestrian .278. I would save my FAAB and let someone else do a Brad Eldred (i.e., pay a lot for a guy whose track record says fail but who manager proclaims “he will play”). If you don’t know it, Eldred made it about a week before being DFA’d.



John Danks: John Danks landed on the shelf with a sore left shoulder this week. This has many saying “told you so.” In other words, many were speculating that the very talented Danks must be nursing an injury as there is no other explanation for his uncharacteristically bad performance. Roto lesson -- talented young lefties with significant major league experience don’t just fall of the shelf. There has to be a cause and that is typically injury. Just something to think about in the future.



Josh Tomlin: Josh Tomlin will rejoin the Cleveland rotation Monday and be a two start pitcher, facing the Royals Monday and Minnesota next weekend. Two starts, two struggling teams, nice opportunity for a FAAB pickup. Tomlin doesn’t throw hard and is not exciting, however, he has been effective. This year he has 27K against just 8 BB. That is what he does. From 2010-2011, Tomlin posted 159 K to just 47 BB, or better than 3:1. If Tomlin is on your league’s waiver wire, change that before Monday.



And last and but not least, this from the Baron of the Bottom of the Page -- Schultz says: “Unofficially, Memorial Day weekend marks the beginning of the summer, permits linen clothing to be fashionably acceptable and kicks off the dumping season in too many rotisserie baseball leagues. Schultz (yes, we are using the third person for the holidays) does not have a problem with those who smartly realize that the present year is a lost cause and start looking ahead to the future. Schultz does have a great amount of angst for those that are quick to pull the trigger and stampede towards the dumping grounds. To Schultz, these owners in your league are the equivalent of the awkward child that gives away his toys so the other kids will play with him. It's a desperate plea for attention and probably deserves some sort of roto-intervention.



Memorial Day is simply too early to start packing it in for the next year. Just two months ago, you were atwitter with anticipation, sitting with your friends bragging about the championship team you just put together and composing preliminary notes for the awards presentation you would conduct in your own mind once you've won. Despite the fact that we've just passed the quarter-mark for the season, there is a lot of baseball to go. Players like Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols and Tim Lincecum aren't going to continue to be abject disappointments (well, Lincecum might) and Cliff Lee is bound to win a game sometime in June. While you may have a sense that your team is in trouble, it's simply too early to start giving away all your nice things. Schultz is sure you have guys in your league that absolutely love dumping - Schultz also suspects that they do it year after year after year without any self-reflection as to why that pattern repeats itself.



Memorial Day shouldn't be a time for giving up. To anyone that's going to consider planning ahead for 2013 this weekend, let me be your Vito Corleone and answer your Johnny Fontaine "what should I do?" with a slap to the face and an order to act like a man. (Schultz apologizes to any female readers. The Godfather was not a paean to female empowerment). If you are in the bottom tier of your league, look over your roster and figure out why you are deficient in certain categories. If it's underproduction, there may be cause for hope; if it's injuries, players heal; if you are loaded in one category at the expense of another, make a prudent trade that can help you now. The one thing I doubt you will see is that you are anchoring your league while getting everything you expected out of the team that you drafted. Before you take a hacksaw to your creation, maybe try and fix it first.



If all continues to go wrong, there will be time for dumping later. In the meantime, have a backbone and fight. Trust me, you will have more fun.”



Response: Drat! I hate it when Schultz tells it like it is. There is nothing to criticize here. Dump trades kill the integrity of leagues, make it less fun for all and cause angst, grief and accusations. But, have no fear, if there is a trade in your league and you think it should be vetoed, call it in to Colton and the Wolfman on Tuesday night and we will decide for you!



Final thoughts: While Memorial Day is a holiday in the sense that it marks the beginning of summer and means barbecues and parties to many, we should never forget what Memorial Day really is -- a day to remember and thank all the brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice in the name of freedom for this great nation of ours

 

[HacheMan]

Oh, Doctor!

Roy Halladay hasn’t looked quite like himself recently, and now we know why.



Doc had to leave Sunday’s start after two innings due to right shoulder soreness, an injury that he evidently started feeling in his previous outing. The results in each start showed possible warning signs, as he allowed five runs in his May 22 outing against the Nationals and served up a grand slam to Yadier Molina in the first inning of Sunday’s start in St. Louis.



The Phillies at this point are saying only that Halladay will be re-evaluated in the next couple of days and at present no MRI is scheduled. We can’t imagine he won’t get the shoulder tested out, though, and a betting man would probably be wise in putting some money on a disabled list stint for the two-time Cy Young winner. Halladay’s ERA after 11 starts sits at 3.98, the highest it has been this late in a season since 2007, when he was still with the Blue Jays.



Vance Worley (elbow) has resumed throwing and can be activated from the disabled list at any time. If Halladay has to go on the shelf, Worley could conceivably replace him, especially since the Phillies have an off day Thursday and can move everyone up a day if need be.



Closer Carousel



We’ve already seen closer jobs throughout baseball change hands countless times, and a couple more changes were made over the weekend.



Brandon League was yanked from the Mariners’ ninth inning role after blowing his fourth save. The M’s plan on the 29-year-old earning the job back at some point, but for now they’re going pull him back. And, from the sound of manager Eric Wedge's comments, Seattle appears ready to use a true closer by committee.



“We’ll match up with what we think works,” Wedge said in the Tacoma News Tribune. “We’ve only got seven guys in the bullpen, andHisashi Iwakuma is the long guy and League will work in other roles for now. Other than them, it could be anyone, depending upon the situation.”



The best bet for saves in Seattle should be Tom Wilhelmsen, but Charlie Furbush, Lucas Luetge, Shawn Kelley and Steve Delabar could all conceivably get a look.



Cubs manager Dale Sveum is also making a move with his closer situation, giving Rafael Dolis the heave-ho after the young right-hander hit the Pirates' Matt Hague with the bases loaded to force in the winning run Saturday. Dolis failed to record an out in a lower-leverage appearance Sunday and has now allowed at least one run in six of his last seven games.



Next in line for the Cubs in the ninth inning will be James Russell and Shawn Camp. Russell has seemed to be higher than Camp on the totem pole all year, but Camp could possibly get more save chances based on the fact that he’s right-handed. Of course, with the Cubs on a 12-game losing streak, neither pitcher figures to rack up many opportunities. Carlos Marmol (hamstring) is also due back before long and figures to eventually get his old job back.



Quentin Back in the Fold



When the Padres traded for Carlos Quentin over the offseason, they were hoping they had acquired a middle-of-the-order threat. On Monday, the 29-year-old will finally get a chance to show he’s what the Pads were looking for.



Quentin is expected to be activated from the disabled list prior to Monday’s tilt in Chicago after missing nearly all of the first two months of the season following surgery on his right knee. The former White Sox slugger experienced a setback earlier this month, but he’s made significant strides following a cortisone shot and went 4-for-7 with a homer and three RBI over the weekend while on a rehab assignment with High-A Lake Elsinore.



Quentin is a career .252 hitter with no speed, and he’ll have to contend with the spacious dimensions of Petco Park when he’s at home. But, he’s also averaged 27 homers over the last four seasons, and a couple of those campaigns were shortened significantly by injury. He’s a worthy add in mixed leagues if he’s still on your waiver wire.







National League Quick Hits: Chris Carpenter (shoulder) will begin playing catch Monday. He looks to be a tad ahead of schedule but still won’t return before the All-Star break … Reports have indicated that Roy Oswalt’s asking price might be a little high, which is why he hasn’t signed anywhere yet. The Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers and Orioles have expressed interest … Chase Utley is taking more fielding practice and doing so with more intensity, as he’s pleased with the progress of his knee. A return doesn’t appear to be on the horizon, though … Melky Cabrera went 4-for-4 with a home run Sunday and is now batting .369/.412/.556 for the season. This is one Brian Sabean trade that’s looking pretty good … Aramis Ramirez (elbow) sat out a second straight game Sunday. He should be ready soon … Michael Fiers, not Manny Parra as originally expected, will replace Marco Estrada in the Brewers’ rotation … Jon Jay (shoulder) will take batting practice in extended spring training Monday and should begin a rehab assignment shortly after. He’s hoping to be back in about a week … Chipper Jones had 120 ccs of blood drained from his bruised left shin Saturday but still hopes to be back when eligible … Ted Lilly supposedly is injured, though the Dodgers have yet to reveal what the ailment it. Nate Eovaldi is expected to be called up to fill in for him.



American League Quick Hits: Manny Ramirez is unlikely to be activated from the suspended list Wednesday as originally expected. The A’s want him to get in some more at-bats at Triple-A … Asdrubal Cabrera (hamstring) sat out his second straight game Sunday and won’t play Monday, either. He’s optimistic about playing during the upcoming series against the Royals, though … Kelly Johnson received a cortisone injection for his injured hamstring and won’t return for at least another day. A DL stint has not been ruled out … Torii Hunter is expected to be activated from the restricted list on Monday or Tuesday … John Danks threw long-toss Sunday and reports improvement with his shoulder. It appears that he should be ready for activation in early June … Ryan Sweeney has passed a concussion test and hopes to be activated from the DL Monday … Travis Hafner will test out his right knee Monday before the Indians decide what to do with him. Neither a DL stint nor surgery has been ruled out … Yoenis Cespedes (hand) is likely to be activated from the disabled list Friday. He belted several homers in batting practice Sunday … Alexi Ogando left Sunday’s game after taking a liner off his right hand. He’s considered day-to-day … C.J. Wilson left Sunday’s start with a blister. His status for his next outing is unclear.​