MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Contract Year Players

In general, the concept that players play their best in the last year of their contract is probably overblown. There’s no doubt, though, that we’ve seen our fair share of guys with dollar signs in their eyes go out and put up big and sometimes career-best seasons.



With that in mind, it’s at least worth being aware of the noteworthy potential free agents for next offseason. Here they are:



Catchers

Chris Iannetta, Angels (club option) – Iannetta can void the Halos’ option for 2013 since he was traded. Obviously leaving Coors Field for Angel Stadium isn’t great news for the 28-year-old in his walk year, but he’ll also be the unquestioned full-time catcher in Anaheim, something he wasn’t for long chunks of time in Colorado.

Russell Martin, Yankees – Once appearing destined for stardom earlier in his career, Martin was great for two of six months last season in New York but terrible the other four months. He’ll turn just 29 next month, but it’s unlikely he’ll net a whole lot even if he does get a multi-year deal next offseason.
Brian McCann (club option), Braves – Barring a major injury, the Braves seem likely to exercise McCann’s $13 million option for 2013.
Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks – The D’Backs have talked extension with Montero’s representatives, and although there doesn’t seem to be a lot of momentum for a deal right now, it seems likely one will get done eventually.
Mike Napoli, Rangers – Likely because they’re focused on other contract matters, the Rangers decided not to pursue an extension with Napoli this offseason. Barring talks during the season, he’ll hit free agency next winter, and if he has another year even close to the one he had in 2011, he’ll be in line to strike it rich.



First Basemen

Aubrey Huff (club option), Giants – With Brandon Belt around, the Giants are unlikely to exercise Huff’s $10 option for 2013 even if he has a bounce-back year.
Adam LaRoche (mutual option), Nationals – If LaRoche shows in 2012 that his shoulder is healthy, it’s possible he’ll be back in 2013 at $10 million. Obviously it won’t happen if the Nats wind up landing Prince Fielder.
James Loney, Dodgers – It was a little surprising the Dodgers decided to tender Loney a contract this winter. It just doesn’t look like he’ll ever take that next step, so the $6.375 million he’ll receive in 2012 might wind up being a career-high for him in terms of yearly earnings.Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler (club option), Rangers – The Rangers want to lock Kinsler up to a long-term deal, and, even if they’re unable to accomplish that goal, will almost surely exercise his $10 million option for 2013.Shortstops

Stephen Drew (mutual option), Diamondbacks – If Drew stays healthy in 2012, he’ll likely decline his portion of a $10 million option and hit the free agent market.
Jhonny Peralta (club option), Tigers – If Peralta’s numbers in 2012 even approach those he put up in 2011, exercising his $6 million option for 2013 is a no-brainer.



Third Basemen

Chipper Jones (club option), Braves – The Braves have a reasonable $7 million option on Chipper for 2013. Even if they decline it, he’ll surely either re-sign with Atlanta or retire.
Placido Polanco (mutual option), Phillies – Polanco had an injury-plagued, disappointing 2011 campaign, and the Phillies shopped him over the winter. His $5.5 million option for 2013 isn’t bad, but he’ll need to bounce back this season to be worth it.
Mark Reynolds (club option), Orioles – Reynolds provided the power expected of him in 2011, but the O’s grew frustrated by his strikeouts and poor defense. They seem likelier to give him a $500,000 buyout rather than exercise that $11 million option for 2013.
Scott Rolen, Reds – Rolen will turn 37 in April, and his career might be over after 2012 if he doesn’t bounce back from his shoulder issues.
David Wright (club option), Mets – Wright should enjoy the new dimensions at Citi Field. The Mets have a $16 million option on him for 2013, but he can void the option if he’s traded, which is possible.
Kevin Youkilis (club option), Red Sox – A couple years ago, the Red Sox exercising Youk’s $13 million option for 2013 (or signing him to an extension) seemed like a sure thing. That’s not the case anymore after he’s had two straight injury-shortened seasons.



Outfielders

Michael Bourn, Braves – The Braves haven’t discussed a long-term deal with Bourn, and with Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll likely test out the market.
Melky Cabrera, Giants – Cabrera is still just 27 and will be looking for a pretty healthy long-term deal next offseason if he’s able to show in 2012 that his 2011 campaign wasn’t a fluke.
Andre Ethier, Dodgers – Ethier should bounce back nicely in 2012 if his knee cooperates, and he’s indicated that he expects it to be his last year in Los Angeles.
Curtis Granderson (club option), Yankees – Barring a major injury, Granderson will be back with the Yankees in 2013 after his $13 million option is exercised.
Josh Hamilton, Rangers – Hamilton and the Rangers would like to iron out a long-term extension, but so far it doesn’t look like anything is close. The former MVP has had numerous injury issues, which undoubtedly gives the Rangers pause in handing out a monster deal.
Torii Hunter, Angels – Hunter will turn 37 during the 2012 season and his days of playing under a multi-year contract are likely over.
Carlos Lee, Astros – Lee remains reasonably productive and has been very durable during his career. He should finish out his career as a DH.
Carlos Quentin, Padres – Quentin was probably happy to be traded to his hometown Padres, but spending your walk year at PETCO Park isn’t ideal.
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners – Ichiro, 38, will have to show that his career isn’t over following a disappointing showing in 2011.
B.J. Upton, Rays – The Rays have flirted with the idea of trading Upton for a while and might still end up doing so since they’re unlikely to be able to afford him next offseason.
Shane Victorino, Phillies – The Phillies might wind up signing Victorino to an extension if they’re unable to bring back Cole Hamels. It’s unlikely they can afford both.
Delmon Young, Tigers – Young will turn just 27 next offseason, but he’ll need to bounce back from an ugly 2011 campaign if he wants to net a lucrative long-term deal.



Designated Hitters

Travis Hafner (club option), Indians – The Tribe won’t be retaining Pronk for $13 million in 2013, but it’s possible they could re-sign him on an incentive-laden deal.

David Ortiz, Red Sox – Big Papi wanted a two-year deal from the Sox this offseason, but they were content on going year-to-year with him. At 36, it might have been his last shot at a multi-year contract.Starting Pitchers
Scott Baker (club option), Twins – Baker probably pitched the best he has in his career in 2011 when he was healthy. He’ll be 31 next offseason and should be able to net a multi-year deal if the Twins don’t exercise his $9.25 million option for 2013.
Matt Cain, Giants – The Giants have talked to Cain’s representatives about an extension, and the negotiations seem to be going well. It will be interesting to see if they can afford long-term deals for both Cain and Tim Lincecum, who is slated for free agency after 2013.
Jorge De La Rosa (player option), Rockies – De La Rosa will surely exercise his $11 million option for 2013, especially since he’s slated to miss the first couple months of the year while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Gavin Floyd (club option), White Sox – The Sox have a pretty reasonable $9.5 million option on Floyd for 2013, but they might opt to trade him instead.
Zack Greinke, Brewers – The Brewers want to lock Greinke up on a long-term deal, but so far no talks have gone down. He’ll be just 29 next offseason, and the team might not be able to afford him.
Cole Hamels, Phillies – Hamels netted $15 million in his final year of arbitration and is set to hit it big in free agency. The Phils are open to an extension, but he’s likely to test the market.
Dan Haren (club option), Angels – The Angels’ $15.5 option on Haren for 2013 is pretty expensive, but when you consider it comes with a $3.5 million buyout, it’s really a no-brainer to exercise it.
Tim Hudson (club option), Braves – Hudson isn’t going anywhere, as the Braves can bring him back for just $9 million in 2013.
Colby Lewis, Rangers – With the Rangers having other contracts on the team to worry about and Lewis having completed a club-friendly deal after 2012, he seems likely to test out free agency.
Francisco Liriano, Twins – At 28, Liriano could potentially net a large contract next offseason if he manages to stay healthy and perform in 2012. The odds of both happening are slim, though.
Shaun Marcum, Brewers – The Brew Crew have indicated a desire to hammer out a long-term deal for Marcum, and they might have a better shot of locking him up than they do Zack Greinke.
Brandon McCarthy, Athletics – McCarthy is slated to turn 29 during the season and could get a multi-year deal if he follows up nicely on his 2011 season. He’ll likely want to remain in another pitcher-friendly environment.
Brett Myers (club/vesting option), Astros – Myers’ $10 million option seems likelier to be picked up after you consider the $3 million buyout. The Astros are looking to save money, though, and might let him walk if they don’t trade him first.
Carl Pavano, Twins – Pavano has been solid in his time in Minnesota and has stayed surprisingly healthy. Even at 36, he might be able to net another two-year deal.
Jake Peavy (club option), White Sox – Peavy’s $22 million option for 2013 obviously won’t be picked up, but he can probably get a multi-year deal if he shows he can stay healthy this season. That’s a huge “if,” of course.
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins – After two straight healthy seasons and a particularly impressive performance in 2011, Sanchez could wind up striking it rich next offseason if he takes advantage of the Marlins’ new park’s spacious dimensions.
Jonathan Sanchez, Royals – The enigmatic left-hander has only one great full season on his resume, but loads of potential. Perhaps he might again put it together during a contract year.
Ervin Santana (club option), Angels – The Halos have an expensive $13 million option on Santana for 2013 and reportedly were willing to listen to trade offers for him this winter. With Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson locked into big deals and Dan Haren needing one, Santana could be expendable.
James Shields (club option), Rays – The only way Shields will be leaving Tampa soon is if they decide to trade him. The team has two relatively club-friendly options on him for the next two years.
Carlos Zambrano, Marlins – Big Z agreed to waive his vesting option for 2013 when he was dealt to Miami. If he can rein in the attitude, he could have a nice bounce-back year in what looks to be a pitcher-friendly home park.Relief Pitchers
David Aardsma, Free Agent – Aardsma is coming back from Tommy John surgery and is currently unsigned. He’ll be hoping to come back and pitch well in the second half for someone before looking to land a deal as a closer next winter.
Mike Adams, Rangers – The Rangers would like to extend Adams, but he could be looking for a closer job somewhere next offseason, something Texas probably can’t offer him.
Grant Balfour (club option), Athletics – The A’s are likely hoping Balfour can put together a nice first half as their possible closer before dealing him at the deadline. His $4.5 million option for 2013 is likely a little too pricy for them.
Rafael Betancourt (club option), Rockies – If Betancourt has a successful year as the Rockies closer in 2012, picking up his $4.25 million option for 2013 becomes a likely scenario.
Brandon League, Mariners – The Mariners have been shopping League, as they probably don’t expect to have a good shot at retaining him through free agency.
Sean Marshall, Reds – Marshall has really settled into a setup role the last two years, but it’s possible he’ll look for a ninth inning role next winter or maybe even a shot to return to starting.
J.J. Putz (club option), Diamondbacks – Unless he gets injured, Putz will be back in the desert in 2013 after the D’Backs pick up his $6.5 million option.
Mariano Rivera, Yankees – Mo will either re-sign with the Yankees or retire next winter. The latter is probably more likely.
Joakim Soria (club option), Royals – Soria had a disappointing showing in 2011, but if he bounces back close to previous form, his options for 2013 and 2014 will almost certainly be picked up. That’s assuming he’s not traded, of course.
Huston Street (mutual option), Padres – The Padres are likely hoping Street can have a nice bounce-back performance in the first half before trading him at the deadline.​

 

[HacheMan]

Tiger Tales

The Tigers’ surprising signing of As far as Prince goes, he’ll certainly miss Miller Park. The rotund first baseman has an OPS of .965 there during his career (.896 on the road), and Miller Park is surpassed only by Coors Field among National League stadiums in terms of being hitter-friendly over the last three seasons (according to Baseball-Reference’s three-year park factors for batters). Twenty-four of his 38 bombs this past season were hit at home.



Comerica Park has been rather hitter-friendly in recent seasons, but that’s mostly been the result of moving the left-field fence in. Just eleven of Prince’s homers went to left field in 2011, so he won’t see a whole lot of the benefits from the shorter left field porch. Fielder will also have to figure out a new group of pitchers, which can sometimes require an adjustment period.



The bottom line is that Fielder is going to be an elite power hitter no matter where he’s playing. It might be wise to knock down expectations for him just a hair, though.

​

As far as the rest of Prince’s new teammates go,

Cabrera was already probably a top-five fantasy selection. You can make a case now that he should be bumped up to No. 1.

​

Also receiving a bump up in production due to a likely increase in run totals will be the Tigers’ No. 1 and No. 2 hitters, which will likely be

Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch. Jackson in particular could be in line for a bounce-back season if the recent changes in his approach at the plate lead to better results.



Obviously Brandon Inge and Justin Verlander is predominantly a flyball pitcher whose career GB/FB mark sits at 0.99 (according to Fangraphs). While he, like all of the Detroit staff, will probably see a few more hits get through the left side due to the downgrade from Inge to Cabrera, it’s not going to be nearly enough to knock him from his standing as an elite fantasy hurler. Max Scherzer has a career 1.05 GB/FB mark, so we shouldn’t see a big difference in his value, either.



Guys whose fantasy value does take a noticeable hit are Rick Porcello and Doug Fister. Not only are they both more pitch-to-contact hurlers, but much of the contact results in groundballs. Porcello’s 1.73 GB/FB ratio in 2011 ranked 16^th among 94 starters that qualified for the ERA title, while Fister’s 1.48 mark ranked 31^st. The former’s AL-only value takes a hit, while the latter probably can no longer be considered as a possible top-50 mixed league fantasy pitcher.​

 

[HacheMan]

Early ADP Outliers
We're in the middle of Super Bowl week, so perhaps it's a little early to take fantasy baseball ADP (Average Draft Position) data seriously. After all, we're still a little over two months away from the start of the season. But when it's 65 degrees outside on February 1, it's difficult to resist the temptation to look toward spring and examine some early outliers.

I did a column similar to this one just about a year ago, in which I detailed some of my issues with ADP data in general. It's important to remember that each site's ADP information is slightly different, so be sure to participate in mocks in multiple places to get a feel of where certain players are going. If you are drafting in an ESPN or Yahoo! format, to use two common examples, do mock drafts on their sites in order to get a gauge on their default player rankings. It's one of the easiest ways to find undervalued and overvalued players.

For the purposes of this column, I used ADP data from Couch Managers, the same place where we conducted our annual experts' mock draft. By the way, you can find results and analysis of that particular mock draft in Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide, which is available now.

If you have never purchased the Rotoworld Draft Guide before, there's no better time to get started than right now. This thing is packed with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, printable cheat sheets, tiered rankings at each position, customizable scoring features, keeper rankings, ADP data and oh-so-much more. It's quite simply the best way to get fantasy baseball on the brain.

And now, on with the outliers.

Ian Kennedy (SP, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 62.2

It's amazing what 21 wins can do, huh? Kennedy currently finds himself as the 14th starting pitcher off the board, just ahead of the likes of David Price, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo and Matt Cain. The 27-year-old right-hander made some nice strides en route to a 2.88 ERA last season by averaging 8.03 K/9 and 2.23 K/9, so there's plenty of reason to believe he'll be a solid fantasy option moving forward, but don't let the shiny win total lead you astray. His teammate Daniel Hudson (ADP: 87.8) could end up being the better value this season.

Brandon Beachy (SP, Braves) Current ADP: 123.2

Beachy continues to fly under the radar in fantasy leagues, despite coming out of nowhere in his rookie season to lead all starters (with at least 140 innings pitched) by averaging 10.74 K/9. Not only that, only nine starters were better than his 3.16 xFIP. Granted, it's unlikely Beachy will be able to maintain the same strikeout rate for the long haul, but he looks like a great value if you compare him to Jeremy Hellickson (ADP: 121.7), who won the AL Rookie of the Year last season behind a 4.44 FIP and 4.72 xFIP.

Josh Hamilton (OF, Rangers) Current ADP: 25.0

It might be a bit of a surprise to see Hamilton on this list, as he is obviously one of the game's best hitters when he's actually in the lineup. But the problem is that the 30-year-old (turns 31 in May) has missed an average of 48 games over the past three seasons and hasn't appeared in more than 133 games in a season since 2008. Perhaps he'll have some extra motivation to stay on the field in what looks to be his contract year, but fantasy owners should build some missed time into their expectations. Speaking of missed time, I wouldn't hesitate taking Ryan Braun (29.2) ahead of him right now.

Brett Lawrie (3B, Blue Jays) Current ADP: 87.7

Lawrie made quite a first impression on fantasy owners last season by batting .293 with nine homers, 25 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .953 OPS over his first 43 games in the majors, yet he's currently being drafted a couple rounds after the increasingly injury-prone Kevin Youkilis. Really now? Let others worry about the small sample size of success, but the potential of 20-plus homers and steals from the third base position should vault Lawrie on the draft board in the coming days and weeks.

Ivan Nova (SP, Yankees) Current ADP: 138.9

This one might be too easy. Nova has all the makings of someone who will be overvalued this season, as he pitches in New York and had a lofty 16-4 record to go along with a 3.70 ERA during his rookie campaign. The 25-year-old at least induced ground balls 52.7 percent of the time last season, but he also averaged just 5.3 K/9, which means he'll be at the mercy of the defense behind him. Nova didn't give up a single home run with a runner on base last season, so assuming he doesn't have the same luck in 2012, his ERA is much more likely to end up closer to his 4.16 xFIP from 2011. Let someone else make the mistake of reaching for him.

Hiroki Kuroda (SP, Yankees) Current ADP: 224.7

Last season's ugly 13-16 record and his wavering about returning to Japan likely contributed, but Kuroda surprisingly finds himself as the 68th starter of the board. Look for his draft position to take a healthy jump now that he's a member of the Yankees. Moving to the American League East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium means a repeat of his 3.07 ERA from last season is highly unlikely, but he has shown excellent command (2.10 BB/9) and a penchant for inducing ground balls (48.6 percent) over his four seasons in the majors. With the run support he's likely to receive, there's top-40 starter potential here.

Jhonny Peralta (SS, Tigers) Current ADP: 94.5

Peralta is coming off his most productive offensive season since 2007, so naturally his draft position is much-improved relative to this time last year. But why take him inside the top 100 players when quality alternatives like Derek Jeter (116.3), J.J. Hardy (125.3), Erick Aybar (130.8), Stephen Drew (142.3), Ian Desmond (174), Dee Gordon (189.6) and Yunel Escobar (198.1) are available in the next several rounds? Peralta's pop should continue to make him useful in most mixed leagues, but look for some correction with his ADP as draft day approaches.

Cameron Maybin (OF, Padres) Current ADP: 191.1

Just in case you didn't think there was a stigma attached to making an investment in a hitter from the Padres, consider that Maybin is currently being drafted after the likes of Melky Cabrera (167.8), Jeff Francoeur (164.1), Brennan Boesch (180.8) and new teammate Carlos Quentin (184.3). Meanwhile, Maybin has already shown that he can be valuable in fantasy leagues without big-time power production. The 24-year-old collected 41 extra-base hits (nine homers) last season to go along with 40 stolen bases, 40 RBI and 82 runs scored. He could be a top-25 outfielder with even modest improvement.

Ryan Madson (RP, Reds) Current ADP: 167.9

Madson's ADP took a bit of a beating in early mock drafts, as he was still looking for a team after his reported four-year, $44 million deal with the Phillies fell apart, but expect him to move up on draft boards now that he has landed in a pretty good situation with the contending Reds. The 31-year-old right-hander proved doubters wrong last season by saving 32 games in 34 chances and owns a quality 2.89 ERA over the past five seasons, so he's an easy top-10 closer in mixed formats.

Alex Avila (C, Tigers) Current ADP: 89.7

Avila unexpectedly broke out in his sophomore campaign by batting .295 with 19 homers, 82 RBI and an .895 OPS, but his .366 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was sixth-highest among qualified batters. The 25-year-old hit a bunch of line drives last season and we probably need more information before learning his true BABIP baseline, but factoring in his 23 percent career strikeout rate, it's fair to say that some batting average regression is likely in his future. Matt Wieters (102.5) is a superior pick at this stage and he figures to leap Avila on most draft boards.

 

[HacheMan]

Is Yoenis Cespedes really worth the hype?

Eric Karabell

Part of the problem in evaluating Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for the upcoming fantasy baseball season is that, as of now, we still don't know which team is going to sign him, or what their initial expectations will be. According to ESPN's Rumor Central, nearly half of baseball's teams have been linked to the 26-year-old slugger in some way. Cespedes is expected to sign in the next week or so, in time for spring training, and there's certainly the chance he will be featured in a big league team's Opening Day lineup.

Of course, another issue in projecting Cespedes as a major leaguer is there's not much of a track record when it comes to analyzing those who have produced gaudy offensive statistics in Cuba. He's strong, has the bat speed to hit any fastball … we've been here before. Scouts rave about Cespedes' "big-time" power; many rate him a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale in that facet. We're told he can steal bases, take walks, track down everything in center field and even sell hot dogs between innings. I'm all for Cespedes potentially being one of the top rookies in 2012. From all I've read and what little I've seen on video, the skills are there to thrive.However, there's also a lot risk attached to this fellow in terms of immediate fantasy value, depending on which round one chooses to take the plunge. I'd draft just about anyone with upside in the final rounds, and Cespedes does possess upside. Chances are you'll need to make him a top-30 outfielder to get him, however. It's always the lure of the unknown that gets players who have yet to fail overrated. It happens to rookies annually. Some say Cespedes is a 20-homer, 15-steal guy right away, which could compare him statistically for 2012 with right-handed hitting outfielders such as Hunter Pence, Michael Cuddyer and Jeff Francoeur. Hey, that's not bad. Pence is terrific, and the others could be chosen in the top 10 rounds in a standard league.


Cespedes could hit for more power and run less, depending on home ballpark, manager's choice, lineup position and, irrespective of all that, his actual skill translating to the major league level. Maybe he's Carlos Quentin, hitting for more pop and not running. Maybe he's the erratic Alex Rios, sometimes good, sometimes not. Or maybe he's Rays minor leaguer Leslie Anderson, a 29-year-old first baseman/outfielder who also destroyed pitching in Cuba but hasn't been so special at Triple-A Durham.
In other words, it's all a big "maybe" for now, and that's probably why I'm unlikely to land Cespedes in my leagues. The hype almost always overshadows the reality for rookies, whether they are young or coming from a place where the statistics tell us little. When I look at Cuban statistics, they seem about as helpful and deceptive as those in Japan. Many of us look at Triple-A statistics in Omaha or Durham, Las Vegas or Colorado Springs and spin them to tell a story. "This guy can hit in any ballpark," or These numbers are out of line." Well, I'm not doubting Cespedes is ready to contribute at Wrigley Field or Miami's new ballpark right away, but I'm not using numbers produced in a Cuban league as the basis for judgment, either.Ultimately, it's unlikely I'll draft Cespedes in the first 10 rounds or spend more than $15 in an auction to find out how good he is. I'm not the biggest fan of Cuddyer or Francoeur, for example, but at least I have a good idea of what to expect from them this season. Cuddyer brings to the table position versatility and Coors Field as his new home. Frenchy can steal bases if he chooses. Cespedes hasn't faced big league pitching on a consistent basis before. At 26, he should bring maturity, but I'd still choose Cuddyer and Francoeur first. I'd also take veterans such as Andre Ethier, Nick Markakis and Martin Prado. None have Cespedes' upside, but there's a time and place to take a chance. For me it would be after the first 45 or so outfielders are gone.

 

[HacheMan]

Don't sleep on Wilson Betemit, O's offense

Eric Karabell

It was about a week ago that an American League team made an under-the-radar signing that struck me as rather smart and certainly relevant for those in deeper fantasy leagues. In other words, I'm not talking about the Prince Fielder deal with the Detroit Tigers. Wilson Betemit signing a two-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles is quite interesting in itself. Hey, Betemit isn't Fielder, but the guy can hit. And one would think the Orioles will use him to do precisely that.

On an Orioles offense with clear positives (Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy) and a few others who could be helpful (Mark Reynolds, Brian Roberts, Chris Davis), Betemit fills the role of deep-league wild card, assuming he's used properly. Betemit can contribute, and I haven't heard much discussion about him.


It's a bit surprising that this is what Betemit has turned into, frankly. I remember him making his big league debut back in 2001, when he was just 19 years old, pinch-running for Julio Franco (then a mere 43 years old) against Ricky Bottalico and the Philadelphia Phillies. I can't imagine any bigger difference in age between a pinch runner and the guy he's replacing! By the way, the Phillies scored two in the bottom of the ninth off John Smoltz to win that game. Anyway, I thought at the time that Betemit would be a star, a flashy shortstop with pop and a bit of speed, a monster prospect. Things didn't quite turn out that way.
Eleven years later, the journeyman joins his seventh big league franchise, devoid of defensive value but certainly able to hit right-handed pitching, and if he could finally get 400 at-bats for the first time in his career -- or how about 500! -- we'd see Betemit's best season. Back in 2006, he hit 18 home runs for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, and he has hit a combined .290 with a solid .838 OPS for the Kansas City Royals and Tigers the past two seasons, with 21 homers and 89 RBIs in 599 at-bats. Well, wouldn't it be nice if the Orioles gave him a full season of at-bats at designated hitter? I think so!
Consider what Betemit did to right-handed pitching in 2011: .303 average, .365 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage. Do you know how many current Orioles managed to hit right-handed pitching that well in 2011? Nobody was close. Markakis gets on base against right-handers … Jones and Reynolds had the power … Nolan Reimold did well in a small sample size. Betemit can be an asset in the middle of the Baltimore lineup when a right-hander is pitching.
In an AL-only league, getting someone with third-base eligibility (Betemit played 87 games there last season) and the potential for more than 15 home runs and a .290 batting average after the big names works for me. I'd spend the extra dollar for it. I mean, is Mike Moustakas certain to hit 15 home runs? Will he hit for average? Betemit is 30 years old -- where does the time go? -- and it's not likely he's one of those late bloomers who suddenly starts hitting 30 home runs annually, but the Orioles gave him two years and more than $3 million, plus a vesting option for 2014. This isn't one of those throwaway bench job deals. It looks like Betemit will see opportunity, and he'll probably see enough time at third base -- it's not like Reynolds is Brooks Robinson at the hot corner defensively -- to remain qualified for 2013. On an Orioles team likely to finish in the basement in the tough AL East, Betemit looks like a potential bright spot, so don't forget about him in deeper formats.
As for other Baltimore hitters, this really isn't that bad of a lineup. It's a shame that Roberts, not too long ago one of the top leadoff hitters in the game, hasn't been healthy since 2009. He used to be a joy to own, a middle infielder with pop, lots of speed and a safe batting average. A concussion ruined his 2011, and he has played in just 98 games the past two seasons. It's tough to expect much from Roberts ever again at age 34, but the Orioles expect him to lead off and set the table for Hardy, Markakis, Jones and Wieters.
That foursome is actually underrated; no shortstop hit more home runs than Hardy in 2011. His 30 tied him with Troy Tulowitzki. Markakis, 28, might never have that 30-homer season many expected he would, but fantasy owners shouldn't dismiss him, either. He has averaged 160 games played the past five seasons, and he's a career .295 hitter. Jones doesn't get on base enough, but he did hit 25 home runs, provide double-digit steals and hit .280 in 2011. As for Wieters, I don't see how he can be viewed as a disappointment in 2011. Only four catchers hit more home runs. Wieters is 25, defensively strong and still improving. And say what you will about Reynolds, but he has averaged 38 home runs the past three seasons. If batting average doesn't count in your league, he looks a lot better.So are the Orioles bound to finish in last place? Well, the pitching is a mess … but that's for another blog entry. Offensively, the Orioles should compete, and Betemit should help.

 

[HacheMan]

Orioles need new wave of 'stars'

By David Schoenfield

Back in 1997, the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs for the second straight season, winning 98 games and the AL East title. They led the American League in attendance and outdrew the Yankees -- who were coming off their first World Series title since 1978 -- by more than 1.1 million fans.

It was an old team. But they re-signed Brady Anderson and Harold Baines as free agents. They signed Joe Carter and Doug Drabek. The '98 Orioles had the highest payroll in the majors, the last team before the Yankees to hold that honor. Every regular in the starting nine was 30 or older. Predictably, things fell apart. Anderson hit .236. Carter was awful. Cal Ripken was old. Drabek went 6-11 with a 7.29 ERA. The Orioles plunged to 79-83, the farm system was essentially in shambles and they haven't been over .500 since.

In recent seasons, the Orioles were finally starting to develop some young players. Nick Markakis reached the majors in 2006 and hit .291 as a rookie. The next season, he hit .300 with 23 home runs and 112 RBIs as a 23-year-old. Before the 2008 season, the Orioles acquired center fielder Adam Jones and pitching prospect Chris Tillman from the Mariners for Erik Bedard. Meanwhile, that summer 2007 No. 1 pick Matt Wieters was tearing up the minors, hitting .355 with power and walks. In June, Brian Matusz was the fourth overall selection in the draft. He'd reach the majors a year later.

That was going to be the foundation: Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Tillman and Matusz. Throw in veterans like Brian Roberts and Jeremy Guthrie and the Orioles looked strong up the middle with a potentially solid rotation. Instead, the team has now lost 90-plus games six seasons in a row. Managers have come and gone. Attendance ranked 11th in the AL in 2011. New general manager Dan Duquette must rebuild in a lethal AL East.

But does he even have core to build around? Let's take a quick look at those five guys.

Nick Markakis: After his strong age-23 showing, he looked like a future star. His OPS+ was 121. Since 1980, other age-23 outfielders who posted an OPS+ in the range of 115 to 130 include Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, Harold Baines, Rafael Palmeiro, Andruw Jones and Carl Crawford, to name a few. But Markakis didn't improve much. In 2009, his walk rate plummeted from 14.2 percent to 7.9 percent. One blog did a five-part series trying to analyze what happened. In 2011, at age 27, often a player's peak season, Markakis slugged a career-low .406. In January, he underwent surgery to repair abdominal muscles. He's still a good player who never misses a game; he just didn't turn into that 30-homer, 100-walk monster to anchor a lineup.

Matt Wieters: After tearing up the minors, Wieters was everyone's No. 1 prospect for 2009, a cross between Johnny Bench and Joe Mauer. Wieters has developed into one of the better catchers in the game and at 26 may yet improve with the bat. But based on his .262/.328/.450 line of 2011, Wieters appears to be more of a complementary hitter on a playoff team (albeit very valuable production for a catcher).

Chris Tillman: A tall, projectable Class A pitcher when the Orioles acquired him, he shot onto the prospect radar after a strong showing in Double-A in 2008 (154 strikeouts in 135.2 innings). But it hasn't clicked at the major league level (5.58 ERA in 36 starts). He's not 24 until April and still on the 40-man roster, but running out of chances.

Brian Matusz: He looked like a rotation after a strong rookie season in 2010 that included a 2.18 ERA over his final 11 starts. He had a nightmarish season in 2011, so awful I don't even want to print the numbers for fear of giving you night sweats. He had a strained intercostal muscle in spring training and his velocity was down after returning. Maybe it was the injury, maybe it was an odd mental block. Roy Halladay had such a season early in his career and turned out pretty good. But we have no idea what to expect from Matusz moving forward.

Adam Jones: In his ESPN Insider piece

comparing Yoenis Cespedes to other young center fielders, Kevin Goldstein wrote, "Jones' 2011 campaign generated considerable buzz in the industry. 'He's just starting to take steps forward,' said an American League scout.'" Really? He posted a .785 OPS; in 2009, he posted a .792 OPS. His walk rate was 4.5 percent as a rookie in 2008; it was 4.7 percent last year. His extra-base hit percentage was basically the same as its always been. Defensively, he rates from subjective "highlight-reel spectacular" to more objective "the defensive metrics don't think he's all that." I'm not a scout, but statistically, he's been the same player for three years. Regardless, here's the bottom line: A guy with a .319 on-base percentage cannot be the centerpiece of your lineup.

So where does all leave this Duquette?

Maybe I've been a little cruel to the guys above; don't get me wrong, there are a lot of positives in that group. I just don't think Wieters, Jones and Markakis are going to be the three best players on Baltimore's next playoff team. Jones, in particular, is a risky bet: He has two years left until free agency, so Duquette will have to make a decision on signing him to a long-term contract. (Read more about Jones' future here from Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd.) The Orioles aren't saddled with too many bad contracts, so that's another positive: Markakis is signed through 2014 for $43 million -- not a bargain but not a team-killer; Roberts still has two years at $10 million per year; shortstop J.J. Hardy is signed for three more years at a reasonable $7.4 million per season.

While Duquette will place a bigger emphasis on international scouting (where the Orioles have lagged behind for years), they do have two prime prospects already in pitcher Dylan Bundy and shortstop Manny Machado, two of the top 10 or 15 prospects in baseball. I suspect that on the next Orioles playoff team those two will have to be the best players. A top three of Bundy, Machado and Wieters with second-line players like Markakis, Jones, Matusz and Zach Britton is a good starting point.

Now Duquette just has to figure out the rest.

 

[HacheMan]

Undervalued Speed

​

Gordon has no power, having failed to go deep a single time in the majors or minors last season. And, while he did hit .304 in his time with the Dodgers last year and .303 in his minor league career, he seems unlikely to approach that number in his first full season. But, the guy is lightning-fast, which he showed by swiping 24 bases in 31 tries over just 56 games for the Dodgers while adding another 30 pilfers at Triple-A. For a shortstop capable of 50 steals, he should be picked well before the 12^th round, which is where he’s been going in early drafts.​

D.J. Short did a good job on Wednesday of providing reasons why Maybin has been undervalued, so I don’t feel the need to go too in-depth on him. It seems to be forgotten, though, that the 24-year-old swiped 40 bags last year, and he could have some more untapped power potential, even in Petco Park.​

Like Gordon, Revere has little-to-no power, and he doesn’t have the added benefit of being eligible at shortstop. But, the former first-round pick is also a burner, swiping 34 bags in 117 games for the Twins last season while adding another eight at Triple-A. Revere is also a career .326 hitter in the minors, so he might not be a speed-only guy. He’s gone unpicked in some early drafts, which is silly for a guy that could surpass the 40-steal mark.​

Tabata had trouble staying healthy in 2011, playing in just 91 games because of wrist, hand, and quad problems. But, this is a guy that pilfered 44 bases in 2010 between the majors and minors, and the 23-year-old could have some untapped power potential, as well. Tabata can likely be had as a late-round addition to fill out your outfield, but he could wind up producing like a mid-round fantasy option.​

There’s no doubt that Jackson has his warts. He swings and misses way too much, especially for a leadoff hitter, and he doesn’t draw enough walks to make up for it. But, he stole over 20 bases again in 2011 and that number figures to rise if his average bounces back even a little bit. There’s also the fact that Jackson’s power could continue to grow and he should score more runs with the addition of Prince Fielder to the lineup. He’s being taken around Round 20, which is probably a few rounds too late.​

De Aza’s name doesn’t excite, but he put together a nifty .329/.400/.520 batting line with 12 steals for the White Sox in 2011, which was even better than the .322/.378/.494 line with 22 steals that he had at Triple-A. Slated to turn 28 in April, De Aza hasn’t embarrassed himself in his chances at the major league level and looks to be the favorite to bat leadoff for the Sox in 2012. He’s and under-the-radar option for 30 steals that’s been going undrafted in many leagues to this point.​

With Melky Cabrera out of the picture, Cain will get a shot at a full-time gig in 2011. A superb athlete, the 25-year-old (he’ll be 26 in April) batted a healthy .312/.380/.497 with 16 homers, 81 RBI and 16 steals for Triple-A Omaha this past season. The 16 steals were a disappointment, as it’s the first time he’s swiped fewer than 24 in a full season. We’re expecting over 20 steals from him in 2012, and he could certainly surpass 30 if he gets his technique down and reaches base at a reasonable clip.​

 

[HacheMan]

NL Central deep-league sleepers

Eric Karabell

I remember precisely what I said on ESPNEWS the day Chicago Cubs slugger Jake Fox was called up from Triple-A Iowa. It was Wednesday, May 27, 2009, and Fox had been hitting .409 in the minors, with 17 home runs in 45 games and a magnificent .841 slugging percentage. Sure, it wasn't the big leagues, but I gushed that this guy could clearly hit if given opportunity, and I had him stashed away in a deep league or two.


Of course, while the Fox story isn't officially over, he never really hit much for the Cubs, Oakland Athletics or Baltimore Orioles, and let's just say he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of speed or defense, either. Fox heads to spring training on a non-roster deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and while there's still time for him to hit … aw, forget it. Not every minor league slugger puts on a show in the majors, but that doesn't mean we should overlook minor league journeymen when they do get a shot. The Cubs have a hotshot, rookie first baseman in Anthony Rizzo, a future impact player they acquired over the winter. But the plan is for him to not be with the Cubs at Wrigley Field in April. Rather, Bryan LaHair currently tops the Cubs' depth chart at first base. Bryan LaHair?


LaHair is 29 and he has accrued all of 195 at-bats in the majors … and 3,624 at-bats down on the farm in the Cubs' and Seattle Mariners' organizations. Last season the lefty swinger mashed 38 home runs while hitting .331 and slugging .664 for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs, earning him MVP honors in the Pacific Coast League. Yes, we should take what we see in the minors with the proverbial grain of salt, but LaHair has averaged 30 home runs the past three seasons, one with Triple-A Tacoma and two for Iowa. And, well, Wrigley Field is a nice place to hit.
I've been asked quite a bit this winter about Rizzo, now with his third big league organization but purveyor of a .141 batting average for the San Diego Padres last season. I think Rizzo will be good, but not until at least 2013. I don't think he's ready for the majors yet. Perhaps his stay in Iowa is a short one and by June or July he's mashing home runs for the Cubbies. Or perhaps Rizzo, a terrific prospect at 22 years old, needs more seasoning. I'm willing to at least consider the latter, which is why I don't consider Rizzo worth selecting in 10- or 12-team fantasy leagues this season. That said, I'd consider LaHair a short-term sleeper for those same formats.
The chances of LaHair hitting 38 home runs in the majors this season seem remote, but he's certainly someone to watch in April. If you're dealing with an injury situation (ahem, Ryan Howard owners), consider LaHair as a free agent after the draft. LaHair's .331 batting average last season was aided by an uncharacteristic .361 BABIP, but he has always hit for power and average in the minors. Crazier things have happened, and let me add that the Cubs don't exactly have the most fluid batting lineup at this point. The team seems committed to new outfielder David DeJesus and shortstop Starlin Castro at the top of the lineup, but after that it's Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto, and who knows what to make of new third baseman Ian Stewart? LaHair should start Opening Day and might hit anywhere from third to fifth in the order.
Well, that spells "sleeper" to me. No, I don't think the Cubs will keep Rizzo in the minors if he shows them he's ready, or outfield prospect Brett Jackson for that matter. But the Cubs aren't exactly brimming with outfield depth, either, and LaHair can play either corner outfield spot, which is to say he won't embarrass himself. That's actually where he's eligible for fantasy to start this season, which is another treat. In other words, LaHair could certainly be legit and help fantasy owners at two positions, and his opportunity might not be merely for the short term. Here are other minor league journeymen sleepers from the National League Central division I'd keep in mind for deeper leagues, depending on what occurs in March.


Jake Fox, C, Pirates: I feel obligated to mention him again. He's catcher-eligible, and if he sticks with Pittsburgh, he wouldn't need to be Johnny Bench to warrant a look in multi-catcher formats. And Fox can still hit. He posted an .842 OPS in 265 at-bats for Triple-A New Orleans last season, and while he's not a good defender anywhere -- catcher, first base, third base, outfield -- he could end up in a platoon with Garrett Jones or Pedro Alvarez if Casey McGehee hits like he did in 2011. By the way, McGehee has the look of a bounce-back sleeper as well; let's remember the guy pounded lefty pitchers to the tune of a .947 OPS and .316 average with eight home runs in 2010. There's no explanation for him hitting .169 off southpaws with nary a home run and an impossible .185 slugging percentage in 124 at-bats last season. I like McGehee over Fox, but Fox is the one who is catcher-eligible, which certainly matters.
Juan Francisco, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: Scott Rolen is what, 62 years old? Or is that just how his body feels at this point? Francisco remains a somewhat raw prospect at age 24 and is allergic to taking walks (15 last season in 110 games!), but he boasts legit power and he's out of minor league options. Maybe he's the next Ian Stewart, hitting with power but an anchor on your batting average. That still matters in some leagues. As for Rolen, actually 36, he's only two years removed from a 20-homer season, so if he actually remains healthy don't forget him.
Brian Bogusevic, OF, Houston Astros: You might not be able to name most members of the Astros. Bogusevic isn't as known as Jed Lowrie or Jose Altuve, but the former first-round pick back in 2005 did hit .287 for the Astros in 164 at-bats last season, and he could be in line to hit fifth or sixth this season as part of a platoon (he hits left-handed). Perhaps a 10-homer, 15-steal season is pending. Also, the Astros signed former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Justin Ruggiano to a minor league deal Monday. A right-handed hitter, Ruggiano averaged 15 home runs and 23 steals in 2009 and 2010 for Triple-A Durham and was well on his way to surpassing those stats last season before being called up. Ruggiano and Bogusevic could make for a productive platoon. Mark Hamilton, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: If you're one of the many who think Lance Berkman will not be able to stay healthy, it's worth noting that Hamilton appears next in line. He's not a noted prospect like Matt Carpenter or Zack Cox, a younger, power-hitting third basemen who could push David Freese over to first, but Hamilton hit .345 with many doubles at Triple-A Memphis last season and slugged .585 the year prior. In addition, Carlos Beltran isn't the picture of health himself; if Hamilton hits, Berkman could see time in right field again when Beltran is out.

 

[HacheMan]

NL Central showdown: Position rankings

By David Schoenfield

No more making fun of the NL Central, not after the St. Louis Cardinals shocked the baseball world with their wild-card run and postseason dramatics.

But that was 2011. The Cardinals will have to repeat without their best player and their legendary manager. So let's get down to business and see how the Cardinals rate position-by-position with their division rivals. Rankings are based on my own subjective predictions for 2012 performance, including offense, defensive ability, durability and risk. Argue, discuss and debate below in the comments section. (And don't forget to follow me on Twitter @dschoenfield.)

(Here are the other divisions we've done: NL East, NL West, AL East, AL Central. Next week we finish up with the AL West.)

Catcher
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
2. Devin Mesoraco/Ryan Hanigan, Reds
3. Geovany Soto, Cubs
4. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
5. Rod Barajas, Pirates
6. Humberto Quintero/Jason Castro, Astros

It's hard to believe that Molina is still only 29, but he was just 21 when he reached the majors. By adding some doubles and home runs to his game he had his best all-around season in 2011 and now ranks as one of baseball's top catchers. Soto has alternated good years with the bat with bad ones; it's time for a good one, I suppose, but I'm going to give the edge to the Reds' combo. Mesoraco is a rookie who hit .289/.371/.484 at Triple-A. Hanigan is one of the best backup catchers around and has a career .390 on-base percentage against left-handers; so of course Dusty Baker only gave him 48 plate appearances against lefties in 2011. Lucroy played well in his first full season and ranked as one of the best in the game at framing pitches, according to one study. Castro, Houston's first-round pick in 2008, missed all of 2011 with knee surgery and will miss the start of spring training after foot surgery. His bat is a question mark even if he's healthy.

First base
1. Joey Votto, Reds
2. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
3. Carlos Lee, Astros
4. Garrett Jones, Pirates
5. Bryan LaHair, Cubs
6. Mat Gamel, Brewers

Well, Astros fans, you've finally reached it: The final season of Lee's six-year, $100 million contract. The memories will soon seem nostalgic. Did you know Lee has more RBIs in his career than Hank Greenberg, Pie Traynor, Zack Wheat, Bobby Doerr, Gary Carter, Chuck Klein, Bill Dickey, Joe Kelley, Heinie Manush, George Sisler, Earl Averill, Tony Gwynn, Roberto Alomar, Joe Morgan, Kirby Puckett, Bill Terry, Kiki Cuyler, Hack Wilson or Ryne Sandberg, just to name a few? Anyway, this group lines up pretty cleanly, although I wouldn't be surprised to see LaHair put up good numbers after slugging .664 at Triple-A Iowa.

Second base
1. Brandon Phillips, Reds
2. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
3. Neil Walker, Pirates
4. Jose Altuve, Astros
5. Darwin Barney, Cubs
6. Skip Schumaker/Daniel Descalso, Cardinals

Phillips over Weeks due to durability, consistency and defense. Weeks over Walker due to the better stick. Walker over Altuve since Altuve drew five walks in 57 major league games. Altuve over Barney because he did hit .389 with 42 extra-base hits in 87 games in the minors. Barney over Schumaker and Descalso since that's not even a platoon as both hit left-handed.

Third base
1. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
2. David Freese, Cardinals
3. Scott Rolen, Reds
4. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
5. Ian Stewart, Cubs
6. Jimmy Paredes, Astros

Each of these guys has issues. As Dave Cameron wrote on ESPN Insider, the Brewers may be better off moving Ramirez and his lack of range to first base

and playing rookie Taylor Green at third. As Freese showed in the playoffs, he can hit if he remains healthy but will remain a big liability in the field. Rolen had a miserable season while fighting a bad shoulder but we have to rank him higher than Alvarez, although I suppose it's possible Alvarez will finally learn to hit those pitches that wiggle. Stewart forgot how to hit with the Rockies last year; a cheap risk for the Cubs to see if he bounces back. Paredes will battle Chris Johnson for playing time, which isn't exactly Ali versus Frazier.

Shortstop
1. Starlin Castro, Cubs
2. Rafael Furcal, Cardinals
3. Clint Barmes, Pirates
4. Zack Cozart, Reds
5. Jed Lowrie, Astros
6. Alex Gonzalez, Brewers

Even with his problems on defense, Castro is the clear No. 1 in this group. Furcal is a health risk after playing just 165 games over the past two seasons; he still received $14 million for two years from the Cardinals, which shows you their desperation to fill a position weak in two-way players right now. Barmes moves from the Astros to the Pirates and brings a solid glove, if not exactly Honus Wagner's bat. Cozart does a little of everything but nothing extraordinary. He carries a better defensive rep than Lowrie, who has an extensive injury history. At least Lowrie has potential with that bat, which is more than you can say for the vet Gonzalez, who at least brings a steady glove with his low OBP. He may make Brewers fans forget Yuniesky Betancourt, however.

Left field
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers
2. Matt Holliday, Cardinals
3. Alex Presley, Pirates
4. J.D. Martinez, Astros
5. Chris Heisey/Ryan Ludwick, Reds
6. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

If Braun ends up serving his 50-game serving suspension, you can move Holliday up a spot ... or you can leave him second if you remember that he missed 38 games himself in 2011. Presley was never a top prospect, but he's blossomed into a solid line-drive hitter; a repeat of his his .298/.339/.465 rookie line wouldn't surprise me. Martinez is another overachiever, a 20th-round pick in 2009 out of famed baseball factory Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale who reached the majors two years later after hitting .341 in the minors. Heisey does some things well -- like pop a few home runs -- but is probably exposed as an everyday player. He's actually hit right-handers much better in his career, so maybe Ludwick will play against lefties in an unusual right-right platoon. Soriano posted a .289 OBP. You can ignore that only in fantasy baseball.

Center field
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
2. Drew Stubbs, Reds
3. Nyjer Morgan/Carlos Gomez, Brewers
4. Jon Jay, Cardinals
5. Marlon Byrd, Cubs
6. Jordan Schafer, Astros

McCutchen didn't take a big step forward in 2011, but he's still one of the better players in the National League. If he can consolidate the power and walks and hit closer to .300, he'll be one of the best players in the sport. Morgan and Gomez provided a nice platoon, especially on defense where the Brewers ranked third in baseball with +20 Defensive Runs Saved in center. Stubbs hit .343 when he put the ball in play; unfortunately he struck out 205 times. I guess I'm still in his fan club (pun intended) since I just ranked him second. Byrd is prime trade bait with prospect Brett Jackson waiting in the wings.

Right field
1. Corey Hart, Brewers
2. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
3. Jay Bruce, Reds
4. Jose Tabata, Pirates
5. David DeJesus, Cubs
6. Brian Bogusevic, Astros

Only five outfielders have hit more home runs than Hart the past two seasons. Bruce is not one of them, although he has matched Hart's total of 57. Bruce was Roberto Clemente in right field in 2010 according to the various defensive metrics, but more Edgard Clemente in 2011. I'm guessing the 2010 season was an outlier. Tabata has eight home runs now in 823 career PAs; he's still just 23, but the power needs to show up.

No. 1 starter
1. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
2. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
3. Mat Latos, Reds
4. Matt Garza, Cubs
5. Brett Myers, Astros
6. Jeff Karstens, Pirates

The first four are all class. Any of them could end up being the best pitcher in the division in 2012.

No. 2 starter
1. Zack Greinke, Brewers
2. Johnny Cueto, Reds
3. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
4. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
5. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
6. Charlie Morton, Pirates

Of course, that honor could also go to Greinke. Once he returned from his offseason tour with the Globetrotters, he started off "slow" thanks to a high average on balls in play, but in the second half he went 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Greinke led the majors in strikeout rate but the one mark against him is that he pitched more than seven innings just twice in his 28 starts. Expect some regression from Cueto after a .249 BABIP and low home run rate. The only question for Garcia is how his arm will respond after jumping from 163 innings as a rookie to 220 in 2011. And this is where I can say something about the Pirates' rotation: It had a 4.21 ERA in 2011 (11th in the NL) but ranked last in innings, last in strikeouts and posted a 5.04 ERA in the second half. Just in case you were wondering why I have Morton ranked sixth.

No. 3 starter
1. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
2. Bud Norris, Astros
3. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
4. Homer Bailey, Reds
5. Paul Maholm, Cubs
6. James McDonald, Pirates

Wainwright is a wild card as he comes back from Tommy John surgery; I don't think it's fair to him to assume he'll be as good as he was in 2009 and 2010. Ignore his 6-11 record; Norris had a solid campaign. OK, I'm going to admit this: I finally believe in Bailey. He had a 3.21 SO/BB ratio, a better ratio than pitchers like Garza, Garcia, Latos, Matt Cain, C.J. Wilson or Tim Lincecum. Don't be surprised if he has a breakthrough season.

No. 4 starter
1. Randy Wolf, Brewers
2. Mike Leake, Reds
3. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
4. Travis Wood, Cubs
5. Erik Bedard, Pirates
6. J.A. Happ, Astros

Debate.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Narveson, Brewers
2. Bronson Arroyo/Aroldis Chapman, Reds
3. Jake Westbrook, Cardinals
4. Jordan Lyles/Henry Sosa, Astros
5. Chris Volstad, Cubs
6. Kevin Correia, Pirates

You know ... the NL Central could come down to which team gets the most out of its fifth starter. And it's safe to say that no team knows exactly what to expect from any of these guys. The most important wild card is Arroyo: A year after winning 17 games his longtime infatuation with the home run turned into an obsession as he allowed 46 of them, tied for the third-most ever in one season. The Reds are grooming Chapman as rotation competition, but considering he walked more than seven batters per nine innings in relief, it's a transition that most scouts believe will end with Chapman back in the pen.

Closer
1. John Axford, Brewers
2. Ryan Madson, Reds
3. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates
4. Jason Motte, Cardinals
5. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
6. Brandon Lyon, Astros

We have three dominant closers, one with a World Series ring who is primed to join their ranks, the stress-inducing Marmol and a guy coming off an 11.48 ERA. Guess which one ranks last? I give Axford the nod as No. 1 over Madson based on a heavier workload in 2011 and over Hanrahan based on a better strikeout rate. And, of course, the best 'stache in the game.

Bullpen
1. Reds -- Sean Marshall, Nick Masset, Bill Bray, Sam LeCure, Logan Ondrusek
2. Cardinals -- Fernando Salas, Marc Rzepczynski, Mitchell Boggs, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Sanchez
3. Brewers -- Francisco Rodriguez, Kameron Loe, Marco Estrada, Jose Veras, Zach Braddock
4. Pirates -- Daniel McCutchen, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, Tony Watson, Jason Grilli
5. Cubs -- Jeff Samardzija, Kerry Wood, James Russell, Marcos Mateo, Scott Maine
6. Astros -- Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez, Aneury Rodriguez, Sergio Escalona, Juan Abreu

The Reds have a deep pen that include three quality left-handers in Marshall and Bray plus Chapman, if you include him. LeCure is actually a guy who could factor into the rotation at some point and Jose Arredondo is also hanging around. The Cardinals' pen came together during their playoff run and that didn't even include Sanchez, who allowed just 14 hits in 30 innings before going down with a sore shoulder. The Brewers are strong from the right side but don't have a solid option from the left side unless Braddock finally develops.

Intangibles
1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Pirates
4. Cardinals
5. Cubs
6. Astros

I liked all the strings Ron Roenicke pulled in 2011; I like the support the Brewers got from their fans -- Miller Park was consistently the loudest and most passionate fan base I heard all season. Yes, they have lost Prince Fielder and they may have lost Braun for a third of the season, but that will help keep a chip on their shoulders. The Reds have the most depth in the division, but I don't completely trust Baker to use it in the most optimal manner. The Pirates will play hard and still have youth on their side. The Cardinals will have to win without Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa. Manager Mike Matheny and veterans like Beltran, Furcal and Berkman are big risks considering their ages and/or health histories. Cubs and Astros are in rebuilding mode but both teams should be better than 2011.

Final tally
1. Brewers, 77 points
2. Reds, 73 points
3. Cardinals, 68 points
4. Pirates, 46 points
5. Cubs, 39 points
6. Astros, 33 points

Whoa! Didn't expect that, did you? As much as everyone seems to be building the NL Central as a two-team battle between the Cardinals and Reds, I see the Brewers remaining good enough to be in the thick of the race. They have the fewest questions marks in the rotation and that makes them a decent bet in my book. I agree with other prognosticators who see this division split into two levels. But you never know ... it is, after all, still the NL Central, where anything can happen.

 

[HacheMan]

O's Jim Johnson, Matusz worth tracking

Eric Karabell

As a longtime follower of Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jim Johnson, I'm pretty interested in seeing what role he ends up in. Johnson was really good in 2011, finishing with a 2.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and doing so with 91 relief innings, which ranked second to Alfredo Aceves of the Boston Red Sox. Johnson also saved nine games, most coming in September. The recent acquisition of Matt Lindstrom makes one wonder if Johnson could potentially be headed to the starting rotation, which is a role he has previously requested.


Jim Johnson? Matt Lindstrom? And there's still Kevin Gregg. Seems like a mess to some, but there's clearly fantasy upside here. Johnson isn't a strikeout guy, but he just missed being one of the top 10 relievers in the game last season, according to FanGraphs WAR (wins above replacement). Yes, the Orioles aren't going to win many games, but we've seen bad teams produce 25-save closers before. Johnson has the skills to succeed … but will he have the job? I think we can finally assume Gregg isn't the leading candidate. For years this average right-hander would be written off by fantasy owners and still find his way to 20-plus saves. Saves are saves, even if they're ugly, and those owners who used a late-round pick on him benefited from it. Even last season, Gregg saved 22 games, 15 in the first half, for the 93-loss Orioles. In the past five seasons for four franchises he somehow has averaged 29 saves (and a 3.89 ERA and 1.35 WHIP). There's value in that, especially if you find those saves sitting in free agency in April.


Lindstrom was acquired along with Jason Hammel from the Colorado Rockies for presumed No. 1 starter -- although he wouldn't be for most teams -- Jeremy Guthrie just a few days ago, and I think Lindstrom should be the most valuable fantasy player in this deal. I can't like Guthrie at Coors Field, and Hammel is average, at best. Johnson pitched very well in 2011, but we can't pretend there aren't concerns about his durability -- he has had elbow woes in the recent past -- and whether a bigger need summons him to the rotation. The Orioles plan on using Zach Britton, Hammel, Jake Arrieta and left-handed Japanese imports Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada as starters, with Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman lurking. You don't want any of these fellas in a 10- or 12-team fantasy league. I think Johnson will close and he's one of my top saves sleepers, but there's at least some doubt.
Lindstrom jumps to near the top of the list for handcuff closers, too. He throws in the mid-90s, so he has "closer stuff," and he has closed before. Last season as a Rockie he delivered the best of his five big league seasons, all things considered. He saved only two games, but a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while playing half your games at Coors Field is a feat. Lindstrom's strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, a pedestrian (for a reliever) 6.0 per nine innings, but he posted his best rates in hits and walks per nine. And Lindstrom did save 38 games over 2009 and 2010 for the Florida Marlins and Houston Astros. I wouldn't expect a big season from him, and Johnson is preferred, but keep an eye on this situation in March.
Johnson and Gregg were essentially the only Orioles pitchers worth owning in 2011, which is kind of sad. I will be watching not only the closing situation in spring training, but Matusz, as well. Don't look at his 2011 numbers; the young lefty was supposed to be the staff ace, but things went horribly wrong. His velocity was way, way down, and I thought it was a bit mean to keep pitching him in September when his ERA was on the wrong side of 10. Matusz finished up with some of the most atrocious numbers we have ever seen from a regular starter: 10.69 ERA, 2.11 WHIP and 18 home runs allowed in fewer than 50 innings! But I'd like to offer this reminder: Way back in 2000, someone named Roy Halladay threw 67⅔ awful innings with a 10.64 ERA and 2.20 WHIP. He turned out OK. Using my age-old corollary that we should not judge players solely on their recent failures, let's remember Matusz, still only 24, showed promise in 2010, getting AL Rookie of the Year votes, flashing a nice strikeout rate and thriving in the second half with a 3.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Forget 2011. Something had to be wrong. I'll take a shot in an AL-only or deep mixed-league, assuming I have bench spots. There remains upside here.

 

[HacheMan]

Closers In Waiting...

Every baseball season there are significant transitions in bullpens around the major leagues, and 2012 projects to be no different.

Getting out ahead of those promotions and demotions with smart waiver plays and late-round draft selections can pay great dividends in fantasy leagues, which is why we like to look beyond the typical Top 30 closer rankings here at Rotoworld to the up-and-comers who are next in line.

For a full (and constantly-updated) Bullpen Report, check out our recently-launched Online Draft Guide. You’ll also get over 1,000 player profiles and gobs of useful draft tools like cheat sheets, positional tiers, ADP reports, keeper rankings, projected lineups and depth charts. Not to mention, one of the most well-researched Top 100 prospects lists on the web, compiled by ProjectProspect.com’s Adam Foster.

Here are several talented setup men worth monitoring -- and, in some cases, drafting -- for the 2012 fantasy baseball campaign...

Kenley Jansen - RHP - Dodgers

Javy Guerra seems likely to open the 2012 season as Los Angeles’ closer after converting 21-of-23 save opportunities last year alongside a 2.31 ERA. But Jansen will be ready to pounce should he falter. The 24-year-old right-hander from Curacao recorded the best strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate (16.1) in major league history last season for the Dodgers and owns a sparkling 2.12 ERA through the first 80 2/3 frames of his big league career. It’s feasible that Jansen could simply dominate his way into the closer’s role at some point in 2012. He should be plucked off draft boards as a Top 20 reliever.

Vinnie Pestano - RHP - Indians

Pestano posted a spectacular 2.55 ERA and 185/60 K/BB ratio across 173 minor league innings before joining the Indians’ bullpen in September of 2010. And he’s made the transition from the farm to the bigs look quite easy. The 26-year-old righty had a 2.32 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 67 relief appearances last year as a rookie setup man to Indians closer Chris Perez, striking out 84 batters while issuing just 24 walks across 62 total innings. Perez has proven durable and should carry a long leash into 2012, but Pestano will soon be breathing down his neck. We’d consider stashing him with a late-round mixed league draft pick.

Addison Reed - RHP - White Sox

Veteran left-hander Matt Thornton is poised to finally get save chances this year on the south side of Chicago and he has the goods to run away with the gig. But the White Sox are already grooming their “closer of the future” and could throw him into the fire as early as mid-summer if things go awry in the American League Central standings. A third-round pick in the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft, Reed has compiled a fantastic 1.41 ERA and 12.0 K/9 in over 108 minor league frames. He should claim a spot in Chicago’s Opening Day bullpen this spring and begin his steady climb toward the ninth-inning job.

Fautino De Los Santos - RHP - A’s

There’s not much to like out in Oakland this year from a fantasy perspective, but even bad teams tend to find their way to around 55-70 wins. And those wins sometimes require saves. The A’s haven’t committed yet to a primary closer, opting instead to let Brian Fuentes, Joey Devine and De Los Santos duke it out for the rights to the job this spring. Being the youngest and most talented of the crop, it’s De Los Santos who has caught our eye. He possesses a fastball that reaches consistently into the high-90s and he laid the groundwork for the closer’s gig last year by registering a dominant 43/17 K/BB ratio in his first 33.1 major league innings.

Fernando Salas - RHP - Cardinals

The Cardinals fell in love with Jason Motte in 2011 while watching him post a lights-out 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 63/16 K/BB ratio in 68 regular-season innings and five playoff saves. But there are still questions about his secondary stuff, and whether major league hitters will eventually catch on to his heat-heavy approach. Which is why Salas deserves some attention in the later rounds of fantasy drafts this year. He posted a 2.28 ERA last season and tallied 24 saves in 30 chances. Motte is the Cardinals’ first option for the ninth inning in 2012, but Salas makes for a sturdy fallback and could be thrust back into the pressure cooker in the event of an emergency.

Mike Adams - RHP - Rangers

The Rangers handed Joe Nathan a two-year, $14 million contract this winter and will have him open the 2012 season as their unchallenged closer. He’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and showed signs of his former self in the second half of 2011. But he’s also 37 years old with close to 600 relief appearances under his belt. If his arm acts up again this season, look for Texas to turn quickly to Adams. One of the top setup men in the game no matter where he’s pitching, Adams registered a 1.47 ERA and 9.0 K/9 in 73.2 innings last year between San Diego and Texas, and a 1.76 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 2010. He’s a sure-thing eight-inning reliever with skills that would translate comfortably to the ninth.

David Hernandez - RP - Diamondbacks

After a couple years of trial and error, the Diamondbacks have finally pieced together a rock-solid bullpen. J.J. Putz was one of the most effective closers in baseball last year with his 2.17 ERA and 45 saves, and Hernandez has emerged as one of the more promising young eighth-inning options in the game. The 26-year-old from Sacramento, California averaged 94.6 mph with his fastball in 2011 and posted a 30/7 K/BB ratio in 28 second-half innings. Putz has a firm grip on ninth-inning duties, but Hernandez could accrue mixed-league fantasy value if his strikeout rate takes another leap in the right direction in 2012. Even if he’s not racking up saves.

 

[HacheMan]

Bounce-back Hitters

Often times, fantasy owners too quickly write players off after one down season, or, at the very least, let them fall a bit too far in drafts the following spring.



For one reason or another, the following hitters didn’t perform up to expectations in 2011. It’s probably not a wise idea to roster too many of the players below, as the reality is that not everyone will bounce back. But, many will fall farther than they should despite plenty of evidence that last season’s disappointment will likely be an outlier. Consider this your opportunity to buy low.



Mauer, of course, battled physical ailments throughout the 2011 campaign. He was recovering from knee surgery during spring training and missed over two months with a viral infection that sapped his strength. He was finally starting to turn things around, batting .314/.393/.416 in the second half before ending the year on the DL with pneumonia. Now healthy, we have every reason to think the three-time batting champ will bounce back in a big way in 2012.​

Crawford was a bust of epic proportions after inking a monster deal with the Red Sox last offseason. He dealt with injuries and mostly was probably just putting too much pressure on himself to perform, which led to career worsts nearly across the board. But, we have many years of evidence to suggest that the career .293 hitter will rebound from a batting average standpoint and also regain his stolen base prowess. The only worry is January wrist surgery that could threaten his status for Opening Day, but the procedure was considered relatively minor.​

Consistently a first-round fantasy choice over the previous few years, Hanley fell flat in a big way in 2011. Ramirez dealt with leg and shoulder issues and was pretty unlucky from a BABIP standpoint, and he really only had one month where he looked good at the plate. An early August shoulder ailment eventually ended his season, and he required surgery. He’s expected to be good to go at the start of spring training, though, and while his power might be down a tad, he’s way too talented not to bounce back to some degree, even in what appears to be a very pitcher-friendly new home park.​

Words cannot do justice when describing just how bad Dunn was this past season. Whether it was the move to the DH spot or putting pressure on himself to justify his new deal, things just never came together. But, the fact is that this was one of the most consistent power hitters in the game from 2004-2010, as he banged out at least 38 homers every year. He’s changed his offseason routine and we expect him to be much better in 2012.​

Dunn wasn’t the only White Sox hitter that flopped in 2011, as Rios entered September with an even lower OPS. The soon-to-be 31-year-old turned it on in the final month, though, batting .307/.341/.533 with five longballs. It could offer a glimpse of things to come, as Rios is fully capable of bouncing back with a 20-homer, 30-steal season in 2012.​

David Wright, 3B, Mets

Wright got off to a poor start last year, but it was a back injury in May that sabotaged his season. The ailment cost him two months of action, and he never quite looked like himself after returning. The Mets think he’s totally healthy now, and they made the third baseman happy by deciding to move in their outfield fences. We’re not expecting Wright to return to being elite in 2012, but he could very well be your best bet at third base after Jose Bautista and Choo hit .300 while belting 20 homers and stealing 20 bases both in 2009 and 2010, but the 2011 campaign was full of disappointment. He was OK in April, but Choo was then busted for DUI in May and his production fell off dramatically. After a thumb injury cost him seven weeks, the 29-year-old was starting to look like his old self at the dish before an oblique injury effectively ended his season. He’s back at 100 percent now and should see his numbers return to what we grew accustomed to.​

Ethier contends that a right knee injury he dealt with throughout the 2011 season was a major issue for him. Considering the lack of power that he showed -- the 11 homers he hit were easily his lowest mark in four years – we inclined to believe him. The knee has been surgically-repaired, and he’ll enter spring training at 100 percent. Ethier doesn’t steal any bases, and he’s hit more than 23 homers just once, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he had a nice bounce-back season in his walk year.​

Heyward had a terrific rookie season in 2010, but his 2011 campaign certainly fell into the “sophomore slump” category. A nagging shoulder injury played a big part, though, and he’s now healthy and has worked on getting his swing back to form. Heyward hits more groundballs than we’d like, but there’s no doubting just how talented this 22-year-old is. If he can remain healthy, we still see superstardom in his future.​

I’m hesitant to include Rasmus here because his questionable attitude raises questions about whether he’ll ever take that next step. But, there’s a reason he was once considered one of the best hitting prospects in the game. Rasmus batted only .173/.201/.316 with three homers over 140 plate appearances for the Blue Jays down the stretch, but he’s still just 25, is a year removed from a .276/.361/.498 batting line and will get to call Rogers Centre home for half of his games.​

Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks

Hill was in the middle of a second straight disappointing season when he was shipped to Arizona in August in exchange for Kelly Johnson. He thrived down the stretch in the desert, batting .315/.386/.492 while also hitting .278/.435/.444 in the playoff loss to the Brewers. Hill’s 2009 campaign can safely be called an outlier, but he incorporated the stolen base into his game in 2011 and he could return to being a 20-homer threat at Chase Field.



Installed as the Braves’ everyday left fielder in 2011, Prado batted a solid .277 with eight homers over the first 61 games, but a staph infection sidelined him for the next five weeks and he didn’t look like himself upon return. The 28-year-old’s BABIP was low a low .266, though, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t return to being a .300 hitter in 2012 now that he’s back at 100 percent.​

Ike Davis, 1B, Mets

This is purely a health-related “bounce-back,” as Davis looked well on his way to a breakout campaign in 2011 -- batting .302/.383/.543 with seven homers through 36 games -- before a lower-leg injury in mid-May ultimately cost him the remainder of the season. Davis didn’t undergo surgery, and there has to be some worry that he could aggravate the injury, but for now he and the Mets are insisting that he’s fine. If that’s the case, he could pick up where he left off while enjoying the cozier dimensions at Citi Field.



The question you have to ask yourself here is whether Ichiro’s disappointing 2011 season was a sign of things to come or a blip on the radar screen. He’s 38, so it’s certainly possible that the decline has begun, but Ichiro’s .272 batting mark last season was 31 points below his previous career low, and his .295 BABIP was a whopping 62 points lower than his career mark entering the season. The two-time batting champ also was able to swipe 40 bags despite a plunging .310. I’m betting he still has a couple good seasons left.​

http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=3161

 

[HacheMan]

Eric's top five fantasy prospects for 2012

Eric Karabell

It might seem like I'm not a big baseball prospect guy, in part because I often speak glowingly of the older, somewhat forgotten players for fantasy purposes and rarely pay the high prices it takes to acquire the young studs, but I'm certainly interested in what they're doing. I attend minor league games. I read, watch and listen to all that I can on the next generation of big leaguers, including everything ESPN's Keith Law has to say or write. I have little doubt that Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are going to be fantasy monsters … someday.


However, I doubt "someday" comes early in 2012. There are others whom I believe will have a greater impact in fantasy baseball for this season, even if their long-term outlook and upside can't match up. That's an important distinction. I just don't think Trout or Harper will be playing in the big leagues in April. Or May. And probably not in June, either. Hey, it's not my call to keep them in the minors. Trout and Harper, Law's top two prospects, respectively, for each of the past two seasons, should be special players. But their respective teams, the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals, either don't think they're ready or believe using the likes of Vernon Wells, Bobby Abreu, Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel would be wiser. Go figure. So it is that in conjunction with Law's Top 100 prospects, here are my top five prospects, for fantasy purposes, for 2012. Note that you won't find Brett Lawrie or Chris Sale listed below. They're not rookies anymore. You also won't find Japanese import Yu Darvish; he's technically a major league rookie, but I don't consider him a prospect. Finally, this list will likely be updated by the end of March, especially if the Angels and Nationals seem inclined to let Trout and Harper start the season as major leaguers!


1. Addison Reed, RP, Chicago White Sox: Remember that we're talking about fantasy baseball here. In 2011, the top rookie on the ESPN Player Rater was not Eric Hosmer, Danny Espinosa, Mark Trumbo or pitchers Jeremy Hellickson or Michael Pineda. It was outstanding Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel by a landslide (he finished 30th overall; Hosmer finished 83rd). Reed figures to get first shot to close for the White Sox after posting ridiculous minor league numbers (1.26 ERA over four stops in 2011, with a 0.72 WHIP and 111 strikeouts versus 14 walks). He might not be Kimbrel, but 30 saves with good peripherals and a strikeout per inning would be enough to top most hitters.
2. Matt Moore, RP, Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are loaded with prospects, and Moore could give the organization consecutive Rookie of the Year winners, as Hellickson earned the honors in 2011. Moore will be even better than Hellickson, notably in strikeouts. I'm not overrating his exquisite minor league numbers, or his brief big league work, or even what he did in the playoffs (he started Game 1 of the ALDS!). Take Hellickson's peripherals and add Pineda's strikeout rate and you can see the upside. One thing of note for those of you in custom leagues who differentiate starting pitchers and relievers: Moore is reliever-eligible today, and the day after he makes his third start this season, he'll be starter-eligible as well. I could see Moore putting up Madison Bumgarner numbers right away (13 wins, 191 strikeouts, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). 3. Jesus Montero, DH, Seattle Mariners: Speaking of eligibility, the fact that this former Yankee qualifies solely at designated hitter is only a minor problem. In ESPN standard leagues, this fellow can be started in the utility slot, and then after 10 games at catcher, you can move him to that scarce position. It might not happen until May, but it should happen. Montero's going to hit 20 home runs, even in Safeco Field, and even with a lack of lineup support around him. He might end up hitting cleanup. Like Moore, the minor league statistics -- Montero hit 39 home runs over the past two Triple-A seasons -- tell one story, but Montero will drive the ball to all fields and deliver production, and rank as a top-10 catcher by season's end.


4. Yonder Alonso, OF, San Diego Padres: Alonso would have looked considerably better manning first base in Cincinnati, but that couldn't happen with Joey Votto there. Alonso was dealt to San Diego, where he'll call challenging Petco Park his home, but the first base job appears safely his. Alonso is outfield-eligible for drafts, and while the lefty hitter doesn't boast Montero's pure power, he's ready for 500 at-bats and an .800 OPS. First base is a deep fantasy position, but owners should select him as a top-50 outfielder and expect 15-20 home runs and upwards of 80 RBIs.
5. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds: Mesoraco will inherit the starting duties behind the plate for the Reds, assuming veteran-loving manager Dusty Baker allows it, and should be able to top 15 home runs and 50 RBIs. Mesoraco hit 15 home runs and posted an .855 OPS at Triple-A Louisville in 2011. This isn't a definitive top-10 catcher yet, but those in multi-catcher formats should consider him.
Other hitters to watch: Anthony Rizzo was traded to the Chicago Cubs, his third franchise in a year (and he's 22!), but he's ticketed for Triple-A. He should see time in the majors in 2012, and perhaps a lot of time if starter Bryan LaHair doesn't hit, but the Cubs are in no rush. … The Braves seem content to award shortstop duties to rookie Tyler Pastornicky, but other than perhaps 20 stolen bases, he won't help fantasy owners. … The Reds plan to go with Zack Cozart at shortstop. His upside is double-digit home runs and steals, but he's hardly a patient hitter. Batting average could be a big problem. … More catchers! Wilin Rosario of the Colorado Rockies has pop, in lieu of patience, but he could start and have a J.P. Arencibia type of season. … The Rockies also could turn third base over to 20-year-old Nolan Arenado, a power hitter with contact skills, but he has never even played as high as Double-A yet. Wait until 2013 for him. … The Texas Rangers could give the center field job to Cuban Leonys Martin, but it's uncertain as to whether he'd deliver enough power or speed to help fantasy owners immediately.
Other pitchers to watch: The Detroit Tigers have one rotation spot available, and 20-year-old Jacob Turner could fill it, but bet on more Triple-A time for the former first-round pick. … Seattle Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen was the second overall pick in 2011. He's projectable and ready for the majors if opportunity arises, but he doesn't offer much fantasy upside. … The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, and not the big league version, likely will feature 6-foot-8 right-hander Dellin Betances and 5-foot-11 lefty Manuel Banuelos. … The Braves have strong pitching in the minors, and Julio Teheran seems ready. Teheran dominated at Triple-A Gwinnett, but as of now the team's big league rotation is filled. Like with Trout versus Abreu or Wells, Teheran probably deserves a spot, but if he makes only 10-12 starts for the Braves, he can't help fantasy owners much. As for Trout and Harper, if I thought Trout would get 500 at-bats, I'd project 15 home runs and at least 30 stolen bases, making him the No. 1 guy on this list. I just think there's too much of a logjam with the Angels. Plus, Trout is only 20, after all. It's not like it's a crime to give him a few months at Triple-A, a level he skipped last season. I'll say Trout gets roughly 200 at-bats in August/September, but other than the steals, he won't make his mark. Harper is even younger (19)! The Nationals say he'll have the opportunity to make the Opening Day roster, but that would also entail Jayson Werth handling center field. Harper's likely headed to Triple-A for a few months, where he will hit tape-measure home runs. I say he gets 200 big league at-bats -- gotta sell those tickets! -- but doesn't reach double-digit home runs. Of course, by 2014 he's probably hitting 35 of them in the majors.

 

[HacheMan]

Don't give up on Colby Rasmus just yet

Back in 2010, a young, lefty-hitting National League center fielder with pop and enough speed to matter slugged .498 over 144 games. He hit 23 home runs, knocked in 66, stole 12 bases and drew 63 walks, and, although he struck out a bit too much, fantasy owners labeled this fellow a future star.

That same season an older, lefty-hitting American League center fielder with pop and enough speed to matter slugged .468 over 136 games. He hit 24 home runs, knocked in 67, stole the same 12 bases and drew 53 walks, and, although he struck out a bit too much, fantasy owners seemed somewhat lukewarm on his future.


Now it's 2012. The first guy was happily dumped by his soon-to-be championship St. Louis Cardinals to Canada, where he had a terrible half season. In the next month, you'll see many fantasy owners bypassing Colby Rasmus, letting him and his future be someone else's problem. The other outfielder is Curtis Granderson, who smacked 41 home runs in 2011 and scored 136, and might be a first-round pick in some leagues this coming year. Oh, what a difference a year makes. Yes, I thought Rasmus would continue to make strides in 2011, but clearly something went wrong. Some blame a wrist injury. Others claim his attitude didn't fit with teammates and management. And there's the theory that he wasn't all that good to begin with. I buy the injury angle. Now Rasmus really gets a new start for the Toronto Blue Jays. The pressure is off. The manager is more, shall we say, hands off and laid-back. Rasmus isn't hitting a spot ahead of Albert Pujols anymore, but likely seventh or eighth in the order. Perhaps if he hits the way we've seen him do in the recent past, he'll end up in the coveted No. 2 lineup spot ahead of Jose Bautista. He is that skilled.


Regardless, I make it a point to avoid forgetting or writing off players, whether young or old, based on one bad season. Rasmus had a bad season. The Cardinals got important pitching pieces for him in late July, and, given that they won it all, nobody can rip the trade. But Rasmus has a brighter future than most realize. There's a 30-homer hitter lurking, especially in Toronto, where seemingly everyone hits for power. Rasmus was hitting for some pop and walking enough when he was sent away, and I won't bother analyzing his .173 batting average and .517 OPS in two months for the Jays. Forget it. He's 25. You don't give up on talent like this. Just leave him alone and watch him hit because those 2010 numbers are repeatable -- and can be topped.
I have Granderson ranked at the back end of the second round, and, truth be told, as he embarked on his debut Yankees season in 2010, I wrote about him pulling many fastballs over the enticing right-field porch, reaching career bests. It didn't happen in 2010, but he certainly did better than anyone could have hoped in 2011. I see Granderson taking a few steps back this season, but he's still a fantasy building block. Well, why can't Rasmus get back on that track again? I think he can. Remember, two seasons ago, he posted nearly identical numbers to the Grandy Man. I mean, check those numbers, the homers, RBIs, steals … it's a bit spooky, no?
The Blue Jays enter spring training with myriad storylines, and we could write an entire blog entry solely about their outfield. Wait a minute, that's what this is! I like Rasmus as a top-50 outfielder, and, because I don't expect to see him treated that way in fantasy drafts -- people are way too reactive from year to year -- I guess he likely will end up on many of my teams. Hey, I'm fine with that. Outfield is relatively deep this season, but I don't see too many 25-homer guys with double-digit stolen-base potential sitting there in the final rounds, either. Watch Rasmus turn his career around in 2012. For now, Bautista should handle right field, though if anything ever happened to future stud third baseman Brett Lawrie, Joey Bats could move back there. Someday the Lawrie-Ryan Braun comparisons with the Blue Jay moving to left field could come true. Offensively, I see major comparisons, as well. Anyway, that leaves left field. A year ago, Travis Snider was the guy. Now it looks like Eric Thames. Each hits left-handed and brings power to the table. Which one should fantasy owners take?


I think it's Thames. His 2011 showing for Toronto was a strong one, with 12 home runs and 41 extra-base hits in 95 games. He didn't walk enough or present much of a threat to left-handed pitching, but most of his at-bats came in the No. 2 lineup slot (ahead of Bautista), where he batted .285 with a .503 slugging percentage in 71 games. The minor league stats don't tell us much; everyone hits at Triple-A Las Vegas, so don't overrate his 1.033 OPS there. I think Thames will hit 20-25 home runs this season if the Jays give him 400 at-bats in the No. 2 spot. Rasmus has speed and draws more walks, so he's probably a better fit. Kelly Johnson is also a decent fit there, should he bounce back. Don't give up on Snider, though. A year ago, he was the choice in left field after getting a 20-game look as the leadoff hitter in 2010. He didn't get on base in that role (.264 OBP), but he hit for power. I still think there's a chance he'll become a Jay Bruce type, but look for him to spend a bit more time in the minors. Ideally, Thames or Snider would fit best hitting fifth or sixth. This outfield also features stolen-base machine Rajai Davis. He's not a great player, by any means, and no team should give him 500 at-bats, but, if he does play, fantasy owners can't ignore him. Davis has averaged 42 steals the past three seasons in only 412 at-bats per. He doesn't get on base enough, but a 50-steal season from him would be more valuable to fantasy leaguers than Thames or Snider smacking 20 home runs.

 

[HacheMan]

Offseason Injury Report

You'll notice that the subject matter on our player news page is slowly transitioning from rumors, trades and player signings to injury updates and a handful of players proclaiming that they are in the "best shape of their life." It's a welcome sign that pitchers and catchers are mere days away from reporting to their respective spring training sites in Arizona and Florida.

On a related note, below you'll find a list of prominent players who are making their way back from injury and/or surgery. I didn't tackle all of the big names here, so be sure to track our player news page for the all the latest updates.

If you want to be completely prepared leading up to draft day, be sure to get the Rotoworld Online Draft Guide. It's available right now, by the way. You'll get close to 1,000 player profiles and projections, customizable and printable cheat sheets, positional tiers, ADP (Average Draft Position) reports, keeper rankings, prospect rankings, depth charts and a whole lot more. Why not get a head start on dominating the competition?

Tim Hudson (SP, Braves)

Braves general manager Frank Wren and pitching coach Roger McDowell have both indicated in recent weeks that Tim Hudson could begin the season on the disabled list following surgery in November to repair a herniated disk in his back. In fact, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suspects that the 36-year-old right-hander might not be ready until mid-April or the first week of May. While this will almost certainly have an impact on his ADP (Average Draft Position) in the coming weeks, this situation shouldn't necessarily scare fantasy owners away from investing a mid-to-late round pick in mixed formats, as Hudson can be stashed on the disabled list in the great majority of leagues. It never hurts to give yourself some roster flexibility coming out of a draft.

Carl Crawford (OF, Red Sox)

Crawford's hope for a rebound in his second season in Boston isn't exactly off to a promising start. The 30-year-old underwent surgery on his left wrist in January after encountering some discomfort during early offseason workouts and is now in danger of missing Opening Day. The good news is that it wasn't considered a major procedure and he should be back pretty early on in the year, but one wonders whether the surgery will have an impact on his ability to drive the ball with authority in the short-term. Of course, Crawford generates a lot of his fantasy value with his legs, so this is less of a concern with him than it would be with a traditional power hitter. Be sure to track his progress during spring training, but with his ADP sinking following his disappointing 2011 campaign and January's surgery, he could be a nice value if he falls far enough.

Kendrys Morales (1B, Angels)

The common phrase the Angels are using with Morales these days? Cautious optimism. The 28-year-old hasn't played a professional game since infamously shattering his lower left leg while jumping onto home plate following a game-winning grand slam on May 29, 2010, but the reports from his early workouts at the Angels' spring training complex in Tempe, Arizona are promising. If he's finally healthy (and I can't put much more emphasis on the caveat), he has a chance to be a nice sleeper potentially splitting at-bats with Bobby Abreu out of the DH spot. This scenario would make Mark Trumbo (foot) the odd-man out, but as our own Matthew Pouliot suggested on HardballTalk on Wednesday night, he might be better off making his transition to third base in the minors for a few weeks before being thrown into the fire at the big league level. There are obviously a lot of variables at play with the Angels, including possible trades involving Abreu or Trumbo, so everything I just wrote could be rendered meaningless in a matter of weeks.

Nick Markakis (OF, Orioles)

Markakis was originally diagnosed with a deep bone bruise in his abdomen last September, but it turned out that he needed "significant" surgery about a month ago to repair an abductor muscle and his rectus abdominis. While the 28-year-old will likely be limited for the first few weeks of spring training, the expectation is that he won't need many at-bats to get ready for the start of the season. Markakis is coming off a career-low .756 OPS and hasn't cracked 20 homers since his age-24 season in 2008, so setting the abdominal surgery aside, I'm skeptical about his chances of being a top-20 outfielder in mixed formats this season.

Stephen Drew (SS, Diamondbacks)

We know Drew is on the comeback trail from surgery to repair a fractured right ankle and sports hernia surgery, but details about his progress are hard to come by. In fact, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wrote last week that the rehabbing shortstop has declined multiple interview requests this offseason. The most recent information we have is from Arizona's GM Kevin Towers, who said during a web chat with fans last week that Drew is swinging the bat and participating in baseball-specific agility drills. It's difficult to give a specific timeline until Drew tests the surgically-repaired ankle in game action, but Towers still thinks "there's a chance that he could be ready by Opening Day." This is a very important year for the 28-year-old, who has the ability to test free agency next offseason, so don't be surprised if he takes his time before getting back on the field.

Adam Wainwright (SP, Cardinals)

So far, so good for Wainwright, who missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old right-hander is already facing hitters at the Cardinals' spring training complex in Jupiter, Florida and estimates that he's throwing his fastball with 90 percent effort. We'll know a lot more once he actually starts pitching in live games, but the current expectation is that he'll be ready for the start of the season. Keep in mind that command is often the last thing to return after Tommy John surgery, so don't panic if Wainwright gets off to a slow start. He's more likely to look like his normal ace-like self as the season moves along.

Ryan Howard (1B, Phillies)

The Phillies continue to say that Howard is ahead of schedule in his recovery from surgery to repair a ruptured left Achilles, but general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said that it would be a "reach" to expect him to be ready for Opening Day and that "if he's back by sometime in May, I'll be happy." The 32-year-old is still a couple of weeks away from baseball activities, so we should have a better idea of his timeline when spring training begins. As of now, the $125 million man looks like a mid-round option in mixed league drafts. Ty Wigginton is expected to fill at first base until Howard returns, but it's tough to get excited about him in real or fantasy baseball terms.

Johan Santana (SP, Mets)

Talk about a wild card. Santana hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors since undergoing surgery for a torn capsule muscle in his left shoulder in September of 2010. And there's no telling when (or if) he'll get an opportunity to throw another one. While the 32-year-old left-hander has been throwing on flat ground since last month and hopes to be ready for the start of the Mets' Grapefruit League schedule, it's simply impossible to predict how his shoulder will respond as he ramps up his workload. There's obviously some fantasy potential here if he can give the Mets anything close to a full season, but he's nothing more than late-round flier material in deeper mixed leagues at the moment.

Ike Davis (1B, Mets)

Unlike most of the guys profiled in this column, Davis isn't working his way back from surgery. However, he was limited to just 149 plate appearances last season due to a mysterious ankle injury. The 24-year-old was originally diagnosed with a strained left calf, but it turned out that he had a bone bruise and ligament damage in the ankle. Davis came very close to undergoing microfracture surgery toward the end of last season, but plans changed after he was finally able to run without discomfort. He hasn't experienced any setbacks over the winter, so it looks like he'll be good to go for spring training. If healthy, he has the power potential to be a top-10 first baseman in mixed formats.

Hanley Ramirez (SS, Marlins)

So much has been made of the controversy surrounding Ramirez's pending move to the hot corner that it's easy to forget that he's currently working his way back from season-ending surgery on his left shoulder last September. Fortunately everything appears to be going just fine, as he recently began taking batting practice in his native Dominican Republic and is expected to be fully healed when he arrives to spring training later this month. I wouldn't be shocked if there was a minor drop in his power output following the surgery, at least in the short-term, but Ramirez's ability to fill up the box score should still make him a second-round pick in most standard mixed leagues.

Buster Posey (C, Giants)

Posey was a popular topic of conversation at media day prior to the Giants' annual FanFest last weekend, during which he told reporters that he's not yet 100 percent following a fractured left leg and surgery to repair three torn ankle ligaments. While he feels good catching from the crouch position, he also confessed that he feels some stiffness in his ankle when he wakes up in the morning. It's way too soon to panic here, but it will be interesting to see how the ankle responds once he starts catching again on a daily basis. With that in mind, the Giants are already planning on playing him at first base at least once a week in order to keep his bat in the lineup and lessen his workload behind the plate. If Posey can meet his goal of being ready for Opening Day and stay on the field, elite fantasy production should follow.

Justin Morneau (1B, Twins)

Where to begin? Not only do Morneau's post-concussion symptoms from the past two seasons make him a question mark entering spring training, he also underwent neck, foot and wrist surgeries in 2011. Oh, and don't forget that he's still experiencing numbness in his left index finger as a result of the neck procedure which may take up to two years to go away. Phew. Morneau will almost certainly slip to the late rounds of mixed league drafts this spring, so he might actually make for a pretty decent gamble, but we're all just keeping our fingers crossed for now.

Josh Johnson (SP, Marlins)

Johnson had a microscopic 1.64 ERA and 56/20 K/BB ratio across 60 1/3 innings over his first nine starts last season before going on the disabled list in mid-May with a shoulder injury. Though no structural damage was found, he didn't make another appearance for the rest of the year. Things are looking up at the moment, as the 28-year-old right-hander returned to the mound last month and is currently throwing a couple of times a week, but he'll still enter spring training with some pretty big question marks. Please remind me of this column if he posts an ERA under 3.00 and averages close to 9.0 K/9 again, but he'd have to drop on draft day in order for me to take the plunge. At least right now, anyway. What can I say, pitchers with shoulder issues scare the heck out of me.

Other notable players coming back from injury and/or surgery include (in alphabetical order):

Brett Anderson, Jake Arrieta, Scott Baker, Daric Barton, Nick Blackburn, Brennan Boesch, Dallas Braden, Michael Brantley, Jonathan Broxton, Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Shin-Soo Choo, Jose Contreras, Zack Cozart, Allen Craig, Johnny Cueto, Jorge De La Rosa, Andre Ethier, Johnny Giavotella, Franklin Gutierrez, Travis Hafner, Cole Hamels, Josh Hamilton, Tommy Hanson, Brad Hawpe, Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens, Ryan Kalish, Adam LaRoche, Brett Lawrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joe Mauer, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison, Charlie Morton, Daniel Murphy, Mike Napoli, Juan Nicasio, Magglio Ordonez, Hunter Pence, Placido Polanco, Josh Reddick, Clayton Richard, Brian Roberts, Scott Rolen, Freddy Sanchez, Jonathan Sanchez, Luke Scott, Grady Sizemore, Denard Span, Mark Trumbo, Juan Uribe, Rickie Weeks, Brian Wilson, Kevin Youkilis, Joel Zumaya

 

[HacheMan]

Oakland not ideal fantasy fit for Cespedes

Eric Karabell

It certainly has been a strange offseason for the Oakland Athletics. They seem to be rebuilding quite nicely, moving several key pitchers for prospects, yet they've also managed to sign the likes of veterans Bartolo Colon and Jonny Gomes. On Monday, the Athletics surprised the baseball world by agreeing to a four-year contract with coveted Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, making the 26-year-old slugger the team's highest-paid player. While it should take years to know whether the substantial financial commitment is wise, fantasy owners want to know what to expect in 2012.

I blogged about the much-hyped Cespedes a few weeks ago, noting that there were two problems in analyzing his immediate fantasy value. One of those has been solved, as we know his destination; he's with the Athletics, not the Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs or another team. In sheer terms of what joining the A's means, let's just say it's not even close to the best place for a slugger to land, especially one unproven at the highest level. Josh Willingham managed to smack 29 home runs with the A's last season, but no other Athletics hitter reached 15. Further, O.co Coliseum, home of the Athletics, was one of the toughest ballparks to hit a home run in last season.


The other issue I wrote about hasn't changed: Determining major league projections for a player who wows scouts in batting practice and statistically in Cuba's leagues can be problematic. Don't even look at the gaudy numbers he has produced in the past. We know this is a player with the potential for power and speed, but he's almost certainly going to need to spend time in the minor leagues. As a result, drafting Cespedes in a 10- or 12-team mixed league becomes just as risky as choosing top prospects such as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. They're considerably younger and brimming with potential, but playing time is hardly assured.
In the late rounds, especially in a shallow league, the risk in drafting Cespedes is lessened. Stash him on your bench for as long as it takes and see what happens. Chances are pretty good I won't be the guy choosing that path, in part because in every league someone will be willing to draft him earlier. Outfield is a deep position in fantasy this season, and as I wrote recently there are at least 45 outfielders I'd choose first, even ones sans major upside such as Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Michael Cuddyer or Jeff Francoeur, and that's even if Cespedes dominates in spring training. In a keeper league, I'd certainly choose him earlier, but again, let's not anoint Cespedes a lock for stardom.
A right-handed hitter who scouts have raved about in terms of power, the Athletics shouldn't be in a great hurry to rush him to the majors. In a way, even though roughly seven years of age separates them, there are general similarities between Cespedes and Harper in terms of when they could be summoned. They're both going to help sell tickets for struggling franchises, something the Athletics and Nationals haven't been doing much of in recent seasons. Could this accelerate their respective promotions? Certainly it could, but I don't think we'll see Cespedes or Harper in the majors the first few months. If asking me to choose between Cespedes and Harper, or Trout for that matter, I choose the younger guys without hesitation. There's more room for growth.
With the interesting moves they've made this winter, the woebegone Athletics have enough outfield depth to be patient, which is the ultimate reason fantasy owners should be cautious in their draft/auction commitment. Coco Crisp should handle center field, and even when Cespedes is ready, he might not be better defensively and could move to right field. Among the corner outfield options here are Seth Smith, Josh Reddick, Collin Cowgill and Gomes, each new to the organization and possessing at least some degree of proven ability or upside elsewhere. Outfielders Chris Carter and Michael Taylor are also lurking and seemingly close to ready, and at some point former infielder Grant Green could push himself into the outfield fray. In short, the Athletics aren't hurting for options. I expect Cespedes to spend perhaps half the season in the minor leagues. Whenever a fancy new name hits the fantasy scene, there's bound to be the requisite dream-in-the-sky high hopes for said player statistically. It wouldn't be shocking if Cespedes eventually attained great heights, even in Oakland. He could certainly hit at least 25 home runs at some point and steal enough bases to matter; it's hard to tell. What is easy to tell is a promising player like this is nearly always overrated in initial drafts, whether it's a young rookie or veteran star from another country. Take the gamble for one-year leagues very late in a draft, if at all.

 

[HacheMan]

My preseason Top 100 for 2012

Eric Karabell

Pitchers and catchers have their bags packed and are ready to report to spring training, so it seems only appropriate to release my Top 100 overall rankings and get the conversation started! These rankings reflect my thought process in a few areas of this season's draft strategy, such as focusing on scarce middle-infield positions; enjoying hitters who hit for power while also stealing bases; waiting a good, long time for starting pitchers; flat-out avoiding closers in the early rounds; and, of course, the most important part of any draft, having fun. You have to enjoy not only ranking players, but drafting them. With that, here are my thoughts!
1. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Edges out the next guy in part thanks to pending third-base eligibility, but also because his lineup is better.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Of course, it's not like he'll be bad for his new team, either. It is worth noting, though, that no other Angels hitters made this list. Yep, Vernon Wells must have just missed!
3. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Falls short of 40/40 again, but barely. In other words, he's legit.
4. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: In 2012, he will lead the majors in home runs. Again.
5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: Might not produce the numbers of other top 10 guys, but consider the position he plays. You don't want to get stuck with Jason Bartlett starting at your middle-infield spot for you.
6. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: A future MVP, and it could be this season.
7. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: Peace of mind and consistency, and the fact he plays second base doesn't hurt.
8. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami Marlins: Clearly I have no concerns about him bouncing back strong, moving to third with a smile, stealing plenty of bases, playing nice with new manager Ozzie Guillen, nada.
9. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: Must be a major slump pending when he hits only 25 home runs.
10. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Surprise! Position scarcity rears its head to some degree here, but the numbers are there as well.
11. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Brings the potential for a home run title, and he should add at least 30 points to last season's batting average.
12. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Nothing's wrong with him. He's still very much coveted, but position scarcity works both ways.
13. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers: He's so injury-prone that he has posted 30-homer, 30-steal campaigns in two of the past three seasons.
14. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox: He's not going to hit 40 home runs, but he's still a pretty safe option.
15. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: Don't feel guilty at all that a good portion of his numbers are supplied by a friendly home ballpark.
16. Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins: Just know going in that he's not likely to play in 150 games. We can live with that. The Marlins have three valuable shortstop-eligibles in Reyes, Ramirez and Emilio Bonifacio, and they should combine for 120 stolen bases.
17. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Upon signing with the Tigers, I moved him up more, past Adrian Gonzalez. But upon further review, I think he fits better here.
18. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: The hatred for this fellow is flat-out unwarranted. Look at his 2010 numbers. He's terrific and will bounce back. In fact, quite a few Mets are worth owning (Lucas Duda!), though no others made this Top 100.
19. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees: I thought about pushing him out of the second round, but a 35-homer season with the steals and runs still makes him worth it.
20. Mike Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins: If you said only two players would hit 40 home runs this season, I'll predict Bautista and this guy.
21. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: If you ask me who could eventually pull a Matt Kemp and threaten 40/40, I'd say this guy, although the power isn't quite there yet.
22. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: Finally, a pitcher. There's just too much SP depth to miss out on a top hitter.
23. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
24. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers: Could have the same season but win, what, six or seven fewer times?
25. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
26. Hunter Pence, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Seems to me the team's new cleanup hitter will put up his best numbers yet.
27. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
28. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Yep, even with only 105 or so games, I think he's going to go wild, hitting for average and stealing plenty of bases. If the pending suspension doesn't happen, Braun vaults to my No. 1 spot.
29. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: Really, who is safe to play in 150 games? This guy sure isn't.
30. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
31. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers: I have no idea how many games he'll play, 90 or 120 or 140. But I think he'll hit when he plays, though Braun's steals give him the edge.
32. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: Not exactly a slouch, and still an elite K guy.
33. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Seems a bit overrated to me now that he doesn't steal bases. Pence seems more likely to produce the non-Colorado numbers we've come to expect from Holliday.
34. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: A future Votto, and a really safe pick.
35. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
36. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays: The second base part is really important. I realize I like him more than most, but the 20-homer, 20-steal potential and versatility is nice.
37. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston Red Sox: Yes, he's not the most durable fellow, but I don't know why people think he's done. He hit better than .300 the three seasons prior to 2011. Why assume his 2011 season is the new him?
38. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: Hopefully the contract talk doesn't affect him negatively.
39. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants
40. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers
41. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: Yeah, I'd say I like this "future Ryan Braun" quite a bit. Enjoy him while he's playing third base!
42. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels: Terrific season, but like Verlander, don't assume a high wins total.
43. CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees: With him, you probably can assume the wins.
44. Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves: Not as much power available in drafts as there used to be. Some of it comes with a bad batting average, but so be it.
45. Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
46. Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
47. Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox: This year he won't have a poor September.
48. Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels
49. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies: Showed he could still run a little, collecting 14 steals (without being caught) in 103 games in 2011.
50. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: Still produces enough numbers to warrant this rank, even if he misses some time.
51. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
52. Michael Bourn, OF, Atlanta Braves: Others will rank him better, and it's not that I foresee a bad season, but there's speed available late, so he's not a must-have commodity early. Tough to fill a spot this early with a nonfactor in the power categories.
53. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
54. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians: Yep, he's my top catcher. Love the walk rate, and I expect a considerably better batting average.
55. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: Won't double his home run output, but he doesn't need to with all the hits and the 20-plus steals.
56. Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox: He's still reliable, and there's no reason to think the run ends this season.
57. Mike Napoli, C/1B, Texas Rangers: Some will point to his massive second half, when he hit .383 with power, but we can also learn from his first half, when he hit .232. Don't pay for the extreme of either half.
58. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
59. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
60. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers: Like Starlin Castro, he should develop some power. But I'll say he doesn't reach double-digit home runs this season.
61. James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: I'd say his 2011 numbers are more likely than his 2010.
62. Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals: I'd say his 2011 numbers are also more likely than his 2010.
63. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees: What is it about all the hate for the New York third basemen? A-Rod could still hit 30 home runs.
64. C.J. Wilson, SP, Los Angeles Angels: All the facts suggests he's safe, considering he thrived in Texas.
65. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
66. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cleveland Indians
67. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians: Think about how much you loved this guy a year ago today. Hey, he had a rough season. Doesn't mean he's done.
68. Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
69. Daniel Hudson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
70. Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals: Whenever a top prospect struggles for a few years, we'll have to remember what Gordon did in 2011. I don't think he'll do much more this season than he did in 2011, though.
71. Shane Victorino, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Didn't run as much in 2011, but he remains productive. Watch out for the durability issues and enjoy his cameo on "Hawaii Five-0"!
72. Matt Moore, RP, Tampa Bay Rays: Meet the AL Rookie of the Year. I generally don't talk up young pitchers, but this fellow will dominate.
73. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals: Nothing to fear here, other than him hitting his innings limit by September.
74. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves
75. Jayson Werth, OF, Washington Nationals: Won't be winning a batting title anytime soon, but he's still good for a 20/20 season.
76. B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Hurts the batting average quite a bit, but he still offers a terrific power/speed combo, and he's only 27 years old!
77. Michael Morse, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals: The power is legit, but that batting average has to drop some, hopefully not more than 30 points.
78. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: I might be overrating him some, but his skill set will translate, and he'll run a lot. I say the Rays win the AL East.
79. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle Mariners: Go ahead and give up on this guy, then watch him hit .300 with 40 steals.
80. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles: I'm not sure who could possibly be disappointed in him still.
81. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: How many times have you written him off? Power is down across the league, so even filling your DH spot early with this guy makes sense.
82. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees: We know many people have written him off. Of course, I'm not one of them, but still this is about the latest he has gone in a draft.
83. Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox
84. Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox
85. Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs
86. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: Word is he's in great shape. Perhaps everyone is in February, but I think he'll continue to emerge.
87. Mat Latos, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Leaving Petco Park can't help him, but he's still good enough to succeed.
88. Michael Young, 1B/3B, Texas Rangers: Won't supply the home runs, but he's safe in batting average, and with that lineup he should knock in 100 runs again.
89. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: Speaking of batting average ... Yes, he's an injury risk, and no, I don't think he'll ever hit 20 home runs in a season again. But when healthy, what other catcher could win a batting title? Not sure I'd choose a catcher in the first 10 rounds in a standard one-catcher format, but still what a bargain.
90. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
91. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees
92. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves: Ah, a reliever. Finally. I'm not worried that I won't get Kimbrel in any leagues. He'll likely go four rounds earlier. Saves are saves, and there's much turnover. If we knew for sure he'd fan a million hitters again, that would be different. But we don't.
93. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals
94. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: Well, I'm clearly buying low.
95. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
96. Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
97. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero didn't make my top 100, but he didn't miss by a lot. And the Mariners have to score more runs this season.
98. Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
99. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers: I'm not a big fan of him, but he still slips into my top 100.
100. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox: Wow, look how far he has fallen! But consider he could miss a good amount time, and when he returns he'll be hitting sixth or seventh.

So what do you think? Anyone too high or too low? Who's missing? Share your thoughts below, and I'll chime in with some more of mine as well.

 

[HacheMan]

The Bullpen Handcuff

If you play fantasy football, you know the term.



The handcuff.



You pick man-beast Brandon Jacobs from the Giants, then you better try to get your hands on Ahmad Bradshaw too. Handcuff the two together and you'll get all of the production from the New York running back position.



The position most like the running back in fantasy baseball is the closer. If the running back is not getting the carries, he's useless. If the closer isn't getting the ball in the ninth inning, he's useless. And, like their football counterparts that go into the season with three or four good backs and hope to find a feature workhorse, many baseball teams go into the season with three or four good arms at the back end of their rotation.



But not all handcuff opportuntiess are made equally. The ideal bullpen handcuff situation has two pitchers at the forefront of a shaky pen. If the job is open to too many pitchers, then you'll have to burn too many roster spots to lock up that closer role. If the lead pitcher is too good, there's no need for a handcuff. Also, the lead pitcher can't cost too much of a draft pick, or that negates the whole reason to employ the strategy -- getting two cheap pitchers that will produce one cheap closer.



Let's take a look at some of the more unsettled pens in baseball and identify how great a fit they are for this strategy.



Houston
Brandon Lyon might be healthy, as mediocre as he is. Wilton Lopez could be the closer with all his ground balls and excellent control. We've touted David Carpenter, a fireballing youngster with a 94 MPH heater and a strong slider, as a possible dark horse -- especially if he shows the good control he had in the minor leagues. There's a chance that there are too many pitchers here to make for a good handcuff -- you really don't want to have to lock up three rosters spots to make sure you have the Astros closer. But read the tea leaves regarding the organization and its future, and you might actually have an ideal cheap handcuff here. The team hired a statistics guru in Jeff Luhnow to be the GM, and are obviously looking to the future. Lyon is a remnant of the past, and Lopez and Carpenter are under control for longer. In a deeper league with a decent bench, pick up those two guys and you'll have yourself a closer, most likely.



Los Angeles
This might be the ideal situation for the bullpen handcuff. With Jonathan Broxton out of the picture, and the rest of the bullpen mired in mediocrity, there are two candidates for closer in Los Angeles: Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen. Sure, Guerra is probably in the first seat as the season approaches, but he's not going to cost much. Most people can see that he had control problems in the minors and that last year was the first time he put up a walk rate that was better than his league's average. Jansen is the fireballing former catcher that's going ahead of Guerra in some drafts. Pair the two and you'll get a late-inning closer with potential for a Jordan Walden-esque season.



Chicago
If Los Angeles is the ideal situation for a handcuff, Chicago's American League team provides just as much opportunity. The White Sox might be building to the future, and Addison Reed is the future at the position. The college closer blew through the minor leagues with great strikeout rates and impeccable control, and showed the same at the Major League level last season. The only problem is that the team still owns Matt Thornton. The excellent lefty has been talked about as a possible closer by new manager Robin Ventura, too. From an organizational standpoint, the team could pump up Thornton's value by having him close. A mid-season trade could give Reed the opportunity he deserves. In the meantime, Reed would have value as a ratios and strikeouts reliever, at the very worst.



New York
Frank Francisco is a great late-round value. And he'll probably get hurt this year -- he averages about 50 innings a season. But it's unclear what will happen when he does get hurt. Ramon Ramirez was excellent last year but wasn't as interesting in the years that came before. Jon Rauch has closed before, but is generally mediocre and has seen his stuff and results diminish over the last two years. Bobby Parnell has a triple-digit gas and a pretty good slider, but results haven't matched his process recently. So that's too many to really settle on one guy. Also, Francisco -- struggles in Toronto aside -- probably will take to the National League and Citi Field in particular, so he might not need a handcuff. Instead, just take him, and look for his replacement when he hits the DL.



Oakland
Who's the front runner in Oakland? Grant Balfour? Maybe. Brian Fuentes? Seems like his stuff is falling off, and he angered management with some of his comments last year. Joey Devine? Is his arm still attached? Fautino De Los Santos? Who? The nebulous nature of this pen makes it hard to identify a handcuff situation. If you just pick up Balfour and Devine, you might have the closer, you might not. Spend a late pick on the guy you like best, and you'll probably be better off than devoting two rosters spots to this situation.



Cleveland
Chris Perez, on ERA alone, seems to have had himself a good year in his second go-around at being the Cleveland closer. But if you look at his peripherals, it was a terrible year. He was near last among closers in strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground-ball rate. His team shopped him, so they know about his flaws, too. There's risk there, and a clear frontrunner to replace him: Vinnie Pestano and his amazing fastball. Pestano got whiffs like Kimbrel last year -- check out his double-digit strikeout rate if you want to see his qualifications. The only problem here is that some are paying retail for Perez, making this an iffy handcuff situation. Should Perez fall in your draft, though, you could hedge your bets by picking up both Indian relievers.

 

[HacheMan]

Jason Heyward still poised for big things

Eric Karabell
Perhaps Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward would be held in higher regard these days, from a real-life and fantasy sense, had he simply stayed on the disabled list when his injured right shoulder clearly wasn't healed last summer. Instead, the second-year player and future star bowed to public and/or team pressure, including some internally from teammate Chipper Jones, and played through the painful injury, which was sapping strength and even causing numbness in his right hand. Heyward altered his swing and [e] let's just say he ended up one of fantasy's bigger disappointments.

However, while we probably don't know the entire story regarding what Heyward went through, the bottom line is it cannot erase the excitement felt about the guy around this time last season. Assuming health, and currently the Braves and Heyward report all is well, nothing that happened in 2011 should derail a bright future. This guy is, after all, only 22 years old! Add it up and Heyward remains in my top 100 rankings, just as he was a year ago.
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Heyward has two big league seasons to his credit, and most think he only supplied impressive statistics in the first one. On the contrary, Heyward still managed a league average 2011 despite the serious shoulder injury. Just look at his rookie year, one of the best for anyone 20 years old, the one that didn't have his health compromised, the one in which he didn't weakly top ground ball after ground ball to the opposing team's second baseman. It was obvious what was wrong with Heyward last season. He wasn't the same guy, yet he was still able to draw walks, hit for some power, steal the occasional base. Frankly, don't even look at the numbers, as they're irrelevant, but statistically things could and probably should have been worse.

Still, Heyward managed to hit 14 home runs in 128 games, a similar pace to his rookie year when he hit 18 home runs in 142 contests. Heyward's walk rate dropped, but one would think pitchers were able to challenge him more, and he did swing at more pitches outside the strike zone. Heyward brought 30-homer, 20-steal upside, in time, into last season, and I don't see why those numbers can't be reached, if not this pending year then soon. Heyward stole nine bases in 11 attempts in 2011, and the 20 pounds he lost this offseason -- I know, I know, everyone except David Ortiz lost weight this offseason! -- should help him on the basepaths. He's going to get on base.

Plus, there's a new hitting coach in town, and former big league first baseman Greg Walker has been tasked with fixing Heyward's swing. The two already seem to have a strong rapport, having worked together for a month, watching video, getting back to basics.

"He's healthy, he's happy and that makes me happy," Walker told the Chattanooga Times-Free Press at a recent team caravan. Walker was the Chicago White Sox hitting coach for the past eight-plus seasons. "It's good to see him have a big smile on his face again."

As for which season fantasy owners should believe, there's an old saying once a player has a skill, he keeps the skill. Heyward entered the league at 20 years old with power, patience, speed, and strong defensive skills, and he's still got them. Certainly even his rookie season wasn't perfect, as he fanned quite a bit and struggled with left-handed pitching, and a thumb injury held him back in the middle of the season. Of course, he posted a .876 OPS after the All-Star break, when healthy.

Is Heyward brittle? How do we know the shoulder problem won't continue to hold him back in the future? Rest and rehabilitation were prescribed, as no structural damage was found and surgery wasn't necessitated. That really shouldn't scare Braves fans or fantasy owners. Heyward's confidence could probably use a boost, but he knows he's talented and the reasons why he posted a high infield fly rate and ground ball rate.

"[Walker's] been awesome," Heyward said. "He keeps telling me, 'You had it. You were picture perfect. We're just going to get you back to the swing you had in 2010.' "




Even his old pal Chipper Jones seems pleased, telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "He's 90 percent back. When he got to spring training in 2010 and on into the season when the ball jumped off his bat, it was a sound and a sight unlike you had ever heard before or seen. The ball is jumping off the bat now close to what it was in spring training 2010."

So think back to what you felt about Jason Heyward a year ago. You loved the fellow, right? Well, he's safely in my top 100, a top-25 outfielder again and probably a bargain at that. Time to love him again.

 

[HacheMan]

Fallback Hitters

The following hitters, for one reason or another, are likely to see a downturn in their performance in 2012 and might be overvalued by those in your draft room. Don’t make the mistake of reaching too far for these guys in hopes that they’ll duplicate their 2011 numbers.

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You can find projections for the following players and hundreds of others in the

2012 Rotoworld Baseball Draft Guide. It’s the best way to get ready for your fantasy draft.



Mark Trumbo, 1B, Angels

Trumbo’s production in 2011 jumped up and surprised everyone, as the then-25-year-old belted 29 home runs and drove in 87, numbers that helped him finish runner-up to Jeremy Hellickson in the AL Rookie of the Year race. There are myriad reasons why a fallback is in order, though. The first is that Trumbo doesn’t have a regular starting position. He’ll be worked into the mixed at third base, the outfield and in the DH slot, but if Kendrys Morales is healthy and Bobby Abreu isn’t traded, at-bats could be hard to come by. The second is that he’s coming back from a stress fracture in his foot, and although at the moment he’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, a setback is certainly possible. There’s also the fact that with a horrid 25/120 BB/K ratio, Trumbo simply isn’t a very disciplined hitter and could eventually be exposed. I’d avoid him in mixed leagues.



Like Trumbo, Cabrera had a breakout year in 2011. Unlike Trumbo, he had had some prior major league success, but his power surge came out of nowhere. Cabrera banged out 25 longballs last year, exceeding his previous career high by 19 bombs. While I do still like Cabrera plenty and think he’ll provide a good amount of value in 2012, it’s unrealistic to think that a guy who had 18 homers over 1,610 major league plate appearances coming into last season suddenly blossomed into a bona fide power hitter. I wouldn’t be surprised if his home run output drops by at least 10 in 2012.​

Hardy came into the 2011 campaign having produced two straight injury-shortened, disappointing seasons, but he finished the year with a new three-year, $22.25 million contract extension after blasting a career-high 30 homers while finishing fourth among shortstops with 80 RBI. There’s ample risk associated with expecting a repeat performance, though, as Hardy has a lengthy injury history and had a career-high flyball and HR/FB rate in 2011. If he stays healthy, he’ll be fine, but he won’t be as good as he was last year.​

Peralta found his first full season in Detroit very much to his liking, as he produced the second-best offensive season of his career, hitting .299/.345/.478 while earning his first trip to the All-Star game. The former Indian will turn just 30 in late May, so he should still have some juice left. Another 20-homer season is in reach, as he had three of them prior to last year and will be playing in a more hitter-friendly home park than he had in Cleveland. That .299 average isn’t repeatable, though, as Peralta enjoyed a bloated .325 BABIP and had previously hit above .276 just once coming into the year.​

Francoeur’s first season in Kansas City was a good one, as he reached the 20-homer plateau for the second time in his career, finished behind only Miguel Cabrera with his 47 doubles and came out of nowhere to swipe 22 bases. Frenchy should remain an asset against left-handed pitching, but his plate discipline is still terrible and he can get buried against right-handers that have a clue. And while adding speed to his game was nice from a fantasy perspective, his effectiveness as a basestealer faded as the year went on and he probably won’t have the green light as often in 2012.​

Cabrera enjoyed a breakout year alongside Francoeur in Kansas City, and his performance in 2011 was even more surprising, as he set career highs across the board while topping the 200-hit mark. The Royals, smartly realizing that the Melkman wasn’t likely to repeat the numbers in 2012, shipped him to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The 27-year-old landed in a more pitcher-friendly home park, will have less protection around him in the lineup and probably won’t run as much as he did in last year. Cabrera seemed to be refocused in 2011, getting himself in much better shape, but even if the improved commitment is for real, he won’t be nearly as good in 2012 as he was this past season.​

Lance Berkman, OF/1B, Cardinals

Berkman was one of baseball’s best comeback stories in 2011, making it official when he took home NL Comeback Player of the Year honors. Like Cabrera, Big Puma’s improved workout regimen contributed greatly to his bounce-back season, but, unlike Cabrera, Berkman just turned 36 and the reality is that he’s going to enter the decline phase at some point. A return to first base will probably help keep him healthy, but Puma slugged just seven of his 31 bombs in the second half last season and isn’t a good bet to approach 30 longballs again. We’re probably looking at another effective season in 2012, but one that might not produce another All-Star appearance.​