MLB Fantasy News 2011

[HacheMan]

Bits: Bud Norris shines yet again

Eric Karabell

Houston Astros right-hander Bud Norris fanned 11 Milwaukee Brewers in 7 2/3 scoreless innings Sunday, allowing three hits to earn his second win. Norris remains a bit of a work in progress, and his 3.03 ERA might have some regression in it, but the whiffs are legit. He could threaten for 200 strikeouts this year, and he's readily available.


<OFFER>Colorado Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez struggled mightily Sunday, allowing six hits, four walks and four runs in four messy innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jimenez has yet to win in four outings this season and his ERA is 7.20, but still I would not cut him, even in standard leagues. The upside, notably in strikeouts, is immense. Bench him this week, if you prefer.


New York Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova tossed 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball to beat the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday, striking out five. Nova pitched well during the past week, and let's remember, the team he plays for can score runs. If Nova stays in the rotation, he should win games.

Nova couldn't handle Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis, who stole three bases Sunday and five for the weekend coming off the DL. Davis is one of the game's elite speedsters, projected by ESPN Fantasy to be a top-five stolen-base option, and he's available in 40 percent of standard leagues.


Speaking of speed, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Bobby Abreu can still help fantasy owners. On Sunday, he stole his third base, and his two hits raised his batting average to .271. A week ago, he was hitting .239, so this is progress. Abreu is being dropped in standard leagues but he's capable of flirting with another 20/20 season.


Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Matt Joyce is owned in a mere 6.9 percent of leagues, but did you know he's 27-for-61 since April 10, for a sweet .442 average? Joyce homered twice over the weekend and has been hitting cleanup for the resurgent Rays. He has 20 home runs in him.

 

[HacheMan]

The second time around

Tristan H. Cockcroft


Wednesday represents an important day in projecting the remainder of Michael Pineda's rookie season.

That is the day Pineda, for the first time in his big league career, faces a specific opponent for a second time: He battles the Texas Rangers, whom he limited to three runs on five hits in six innings in his major league debut on April 5, a quality start albeit statistically his worst to date -- he's been that good.


(As an aside, another young, first-time starter will face the same opponent for the second time during that series: Alexi Ogando, who faces Pineda's Seattle Mariners on Tuesday.)


That's right, the proverbial "second time around the league" has arrived for Pineda, and with it, questions to be answered. Among them: Are the five starts he has made enough exposure to have provided opponents a detailed scouting report, full of weaknesses to exploit? Will hitters be more prepared to catch up to his mid-to-high-90s fastball the more times they have seen it?


How about this for a counterargument: Is there really such a thing as a "second time around the league"?


People tend to casually toss such arguments around, often without having first seen a shred of supporting evidence. In the case of the proverbial "second time," many of us accept this notion that younger -- typically rookie -- pitchers struggle the second and third times they face a specific opponent early in their careers. We'll hear -- often instinctively regurgitate -- comments like, "Well, the league now has a book on so-and-so." It's that concept of there being a "book" on a particular pitcher, an endless novel crafted with every pitch he throws, that grips us, grabs us, drives our decision-making. By all rights it's possible, that perhaps it's rooted in fact.


But what if this book is a work of fiction?


To discover the answer, I examined the performances of 230 rookie pitchers from the past decade (2001-10), looking only for statistics accumulated against opponents they faced multiple times during their rookie seasons. (A caveat: If the pitcher made a few token starts preceding his rookie campaign, without expiring his "rookie" eligibility, I lumped those outings in with his rookie year.) A few ground rules: Pitchers must have made at least 10 starts as a rookie, and no statistics from seasons after a pitcher had expired his rookie eligibility were included. This is a pure rookie-year study -- as rookies are as likely to endure adjustment periods as any pitcher, plus Pineda is, naturally, also a rookie.


Here's how those 230 pitchers fared each time they faced a familiar foe:


<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Meeting</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WPCT</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>QS%</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>ERA</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WHIP</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>K/9</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Average
Game score</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.522</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47.5%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.31</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.38</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.30</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.471</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46.0%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.73</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.43</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.11</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3+</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.483</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40.4%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.78</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.46</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.32</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>From this group, there were 1,266 instances of a rookie pitcher facing the same opponent more than once, and 701 times they faced that team three or more times. (Some data derived from Baseball Musings' day-by-day database.)




As simply as that, you might conclude that, yes, there's absolutely something to the notion of a "second time around." The theory has its merits; the statistics, right there in black and white, back it up. If you're interested in a general, across-the-board analysis, then yes, in general it's the truth.


I'm not so interested in a general feel. I want something more, some specifics, something that is representative of the type of pitcher Pineda is, rather than lumping him in with every other pitcher that has ever toed a mound.


So I further classified these rookies into styles of pitcher: finesse pitchers, which for this exercise was the 37 pitchers who managed a 2.50 walks-per-nine innings ratio or better during their rookie seasons, and power pitchers, the 37 pitchers who managed an 8.00 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio or greater during Year No. 1. To give you a few specific examples of pitchers who resided in either of these groups, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver and Travis Wood were four notable names in the "finesse" group, while Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Jhoulys Chacin and CC Sabathia were four in the "power" group. Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg were classified as both.


The splits between these two groups was stark:


"Finesse" pitchers (2.50 BB/9 or lower)



<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Meeting</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WPCT</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>QS%</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>ERA</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WHIP</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>K/9</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Average
Game score</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.552</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50.2%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3.73</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.25</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5.36</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.516</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53.5%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.25</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.27</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5.53</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3+</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.456</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39.0%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.69</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.39</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5.86</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
From this group, there were 215 instances of a rookie pitcher facing the same opponent more than once, and 118 times they faced that team three or more times. (Some data derived from Baseball Musings' day-by-day database.)





"Power" pitchers (8.00 K/9 or higher)



<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Meeting</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WPCT</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>QS%</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>ERA</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WHIP</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>K/9</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Average
Game score</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.533</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48.8%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.31</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.32</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.76</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.493</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49.3%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.22</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.37</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.44</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3+</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.466</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46.3%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.18</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.36</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.70</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>From this group, there were 203 instances of a rookie pitcher facing the same opponent more than once, and 123 times they faced that team three or more times. (Some data derived from Baseball Musings' day-by-day database.)




The power pitchers, judging by the numbers, showed little to no variance between initial and subsequent meetings with the same opponent. The finesse pitchers, meanwhile, got progressively worse with each battle, and while their quality-start percentage did improve in start No. 2, they did demonstrate a higher likelihood of meltdowns in those outings, and for the most part completely collapsed when they faced the same foe three or more times.


Incidentally, if you're wondering whether the finesse group's numbers might have been skewed by a few particularly poor outings by some of the least-talented rookies of the past decade, consider this: Jered Weaver, who was phenomenal as a rookie (11-2 record, 2.56 ERA in 2006), had his three worst outings of that season against teams he had faced previously in the year. In addition, four of Travis Wood's seven worst outings of 2010 (he had a 3.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP as a rookie) came in subsequent meetings against familiar opponents. Ultimately, the stats say that if you didn't get by on strikeouts as a rookie, you faced a steeper learning curve.


Michael Pineda, by any description, is a power pitcher who thrives on strikeouts.


Here's another narrowing of that group of 230 that might interest Pineda's owners: I also broke them down by the 25 who had the highest average game score in their first 10 career big league starts. Why that? It's simple: Pineda has an average game score of 62.0 in his first five turns, which would rank him third among that group (reminding, obviously, that the rest of the group had 10 starts). Among the pitchers ranked near him: Felix Hernandez (63.1), Jeremy Guthrie (62.6), Brandon Webb (62.0) and Jered Weaver (61.6), so Pineda is in pretty exclusive company.


Here's how the "hot starters" fared in initial and subsequent meetings:


<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Meeting</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WPCT</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>QS%</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>ERA</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>WHIP</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>K/9</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Average
Game score</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.705</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68.8%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2.68</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.15</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.75</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.529</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59.6%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3.67</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.27</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3+</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>.538</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48.8%</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3.66</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1.33</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.23</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52.2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>From this group, there were 141 instances of a rookie pitcher facing the same opponent more than once, and 80 times they faced that team three or more times. (Some data derived from Baseball Musings' day-by-day database.)





You might regard this data as a negative, but it's also important to remember how valuable a 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.16 K's-per-nine ratio -- the group's numbers in meeting No. 2 -- actually are. Heck, last season, in the so-called "Year of the Pitcher," the major league averages for starting pitchers in those categories was 4.16, 1.34 and 6.76. In addition, in defense of those numbers, regression to the mean had to have been a factor for many hot starters; remember that it's incredibly difficult for all but the best pitchers in baseball to maintain a 2.68 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for a full season. If "regression" for Pineda means a 3.67 ERA and 1.27 WHIP from today forward, none of his owners are going to complain, especially if his K's-per-nine ratio remains near its current 8.62 mark.



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Halladay, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Lincecum, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Felix Hernandez, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jered Weaver, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Johnson, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cliff Lee, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Haren, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Lester, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Verlander, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">CC Sabathia, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clayton Kershaw, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Price, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tommy Hanson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cole Hamels, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Oswalt, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Cain, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zack Greinke, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ubaldo Jimenez, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Carpenter, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shaun Marcum, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Trevor Cahill, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Hudson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jhoulys Chacin, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Garza, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Danks, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Max Scherzer, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chad Billingsley, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jaime Garcia, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Sanchez, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mat Latos, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Nolasco, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Beckett, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Romero, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Morrow, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Anderson, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jorge De La Rosa, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hiroki Kuroda, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Yovani Gallardo, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James Shields, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Anibal Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gio Gonzalez, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Myers, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ted Lilly, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Lewis, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daniel Hudson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gavin Floyd, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wandy Rodriguez, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kennedy, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Lowe, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clay Buchholz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">C.J. Wilson, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Pineda, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bronson Arroyo, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Masterson, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Scott Baker, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexi Ogando, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wade Davis, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Liriano, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ervin Santana, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jair Jurrjens, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Hellickson, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Duensing, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jordan Zimmermann, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Guthrie, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">A.J. Burnett, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Harang, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Lohse, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edinson Volquez, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle McClellan, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edwin Jackson, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Randy Wolf, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bud Norris, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Zambrano, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Beachy, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Dempster, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Holland, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Stauffer, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Lackey, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Hammel, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zach Britton, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Harrison, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carl Pavano, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Madison Bumgarner, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Cueto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clayton Richard, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Fausto Carmona, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Young, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jake Peavy, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Drabek, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dallas Braden, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bartolo Colon, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon McCarthy, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Niemann, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Garland, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joel Pineiro, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Matusz, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rick Porcello, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Correia, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James McDonald, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Is Pineda a sell-high candidate, with risk of a decline in performance once opponents become more familiar with him? Certainly, if you're selling him at a price anything close to his current full-year pace of 22 wins, a 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 168 strikeouts. But perhaps you'd be underselling if you pawned him off the value of nine wins, a 3.99 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 116 K's, which is what his stat line from today forward would be if he were to hit our preseason projection.


I'm not so sure we're not looking at the eventual American League Rookie of the Year. If you do still plan to sell high, however, here's another nugget: If the Seattle Mariners stick to their current rotation, after Wednesday's start against the Rangers, the next time Pineda would face an opponent for a second time would be June 10 at the Detroit Tigers. In other words, that "second time around" you fear might not truly arrive for another month, so you've got time.


Three up



Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Not that you need us to tell you that Felix Hernandez is a fantasy stud, but if either the Mariners' lackluster offensive attack or Hernandez's own sluggish start had you concerned, don't sweat either one. All he has done in his past three starts is post vintage "King Felix" stats: 2-0 record, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.58 K's-per-nine ratio. Considering the past two were road assignments at Detroit and Boston, facing two solid (on paper) lineups, Hernandez's rebound looks all the more impressive. He remains a clear top-five starter.


Bud Norris, Houston Astros: This kid misses a lot of bats; through six starts he has a 10.85 K's-per-nine ratio, 75.4 percent contact rate on all swings and 12.0 percent swing-and-miss rate, every one of those a top-15 number among qualified big league starters. But what has fueled Norris' breakthrough isn't the strikeouts, it's his polished command, evidenced by his 3.03 walks-per-nine ratio and 60.5 percent first-pitch strike rate. Here's the best part: He hasn't allowed an earned run in 13 2/3 innings his past two starts combined, and those came against the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, widely regarded as two of the best offensive teams in the National League. Can Norris keep this up? For so long as he's striking out more than three times as many batters as he walks, absolutely he can!


James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays: Every one of Shields' 2010 peripherals pointed to a pitcher who was terribly unlucky … and every one of his 2011 peripherals points to a pitcher who has been incredibly lucky. Just look at the stats: His BABIP, which was a bloated .341 in 2010, is .252 so far this year. His strand rate has gone from 68.4 to 83.7 percent. His home run/fly ball percentage has gone from 13.8 to 6.7 percent. What's Shields' true value? Probably something in between the 5.18 ERA he posted a year ago and the 2.14 he has so far, but split the difference and that's still a 3.66 mark, which is still a valuable number in fantasy. It could elevate him to top-30 starter status in short time, in fact.


Three down



Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: It's officially time to panic, as with Monday's mediocre effort, Gallardo has now gone five consecutive outings without a quality start. During that slump, he has an 8.89 ERA, 2.13 WHIP and 12 walks compared to 24 strikeouts, the resulting 2.00 K-to-walk ratio noticeably beneath the 2.40 mark he has during his big league career. What's worse: Two of those outings (CHC, @WAS) came against bottom-10 offenses, another (HOU) shouldn't have been a stiff challenge and a fourth (@ATL) was versus a team against whom Gallardo was 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in five previous career starts. Slightly diminished velocity -- he averaged 91.8 mph with his fastball entering Monday's start, down from 92.6 mph in 2010 -- could be responsible, but whatever the cause, Gallardo is looking like a clear no-go right now in mixed formats. It's not cut time, but it's reserve time (if you hadn't already).


Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox: Command, command, command. That is the problem with Jackson, who, hot as he was during his first two starts of 2011, has been equally awful in four since. During that four-start slump, Jackson's ERA is 8.44 and his WHIP 2.16, and he has as many walks (12) as strikeouts (12), including nine of those walks in his past two turns. Point to his 120-pitch masterpiece of April 7 as the cause if you wish; it was the ninth-most pitches anyone has thrown before Tax Day since 2005 and the most through April 7 of any season since then. Jackson can be a maddening pitcher to own, and right now he's offering no glimpses of hope, at least not for the foreseeable future.


Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins: If the Twins are truly ready to bump him from their rotation, perhaps it's time for his fantasy owners to finally give up hope, too. Liriano is slated to start Tuesday against the White Sox, and according to 1500 ESPN in Minneapolis, if he doesn't right himself, he might be out. "We've been talking about our options with him, and the first option is trying to get him right and relaxed out there," said manager Ron Gardenhire. Gardenhire added that the team is stretching out Kevin Slowey during his rehabilitation assignment in the event the Twins need him to replace Liriano in the rotation. Liriano's velocity is down and his command has been awful, so there's plenty of work to do before he'll be fantasy-worthy. He might be mere hours from being an across-the-board cut candidate.

 

[HacheMan]

Splits notes: Adam Lind adept vs. LHPs

Eric Karabell

Most fantasy owners probably don't care if their hitters are effective against right-handed or left-handed pitchers, as long as they're effective, period. But for those owners who avoided Toronto Blue Jays DH/first baseman Adam Lind this season, it's his work against southpaws that absolutely defined his awful 2010 campaign. Lind hit an atrocious .117 against lefties last season, with a .341 OPS. He drew five walks compared to 52 strikeouts. What was truly amazing is that Lind kept getting thrown into the Jays' lineup against lefties. The nightmare didn't stop!


Then again, the lefty-hitting Lind hit lefty pitching just fine in his breakout 2009 campaign, and so far this season he has had few issues. In fact, Lind is hitting a cool .355 against lefties so far, with three doubles and a home run last week off Texas Rangers lefty Matt Harrison. It's a small sample size, but with 11 hits against lefties in the first month, Lind is close to reaching last season's total of 16. Don't expect his success to continue at quite the same rate, but at least Lind hasn't been an automatic out against lefties. If he can hold his own and continue to do fine work against right-handers, he's back to being a 30-homer, 100-RBI threat that doesn't kill your team's batting average. That would make him a top-100 fantasy player.
I'd say Lind represents the most extreme case of a player whose fantasy value was destroyed by his incompetence against a certain subculture of pitchers. Had Lind simply hit closer to his still-sad career mark of .225 against lefties, then he wouldn't have hit .237 overall last season. Wouldn't a .260 overall average have looked much better? Again, most fantasy owners don't care how the sausage is made, so to speak, or in this case how a batting average is comprised, but when it comes to Lind, it really does matter. I've seen a few of his at-bats against lefties over the past week, and it seems to me he's back to being a factor again. There are myriad left-handed power hitters like him, such as Ryan Howard, who do their best work against right-handers. Of course, Lind isn't exactly pounding right-handers (.253 batting average, .295 OBP), but I think he will. The bottom line: We can welcome Lind back to fantasy relevance after a frustrating 2010.
Here are a few other hitters whose 2011 lefty/righty splits have caused me to take notice: Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals: This switch hitter didn't seem to have many believers heading into this season, for many reasons, including his age, the fact that he hadn't played the outfield seemingly since the Reagan administration and because he was awful against left-handed pitching in 2010. He entered Tuesday hitting an incomprehensible .406 with a 1.249 OPS, second only to teammate Matt Holliday among qualified hitters. Once again, Berkman has done most of his damage hitting left-handed, but there's nothing wrong with a .273 batting average and .905 OPS against southpaws. Big Puma even took lefty Fernando Abad deep last week, matching his 2010 home run total against lefties. Look, Berkman probably will regress slightly against lefties, and manager Tony La Russa would be wise to give the 35-year-old a day off against tough lefties such as Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee, but this still looks like more the 2008 version of Berkman.


Jeff Francoeur, OF, Kansas City Royals: I understand why fantasy owners are buying into his fine start; Francoeur already has six home runs and three stolen bases. We know he can bash lefties, and so far he has, with a .400 batting average and 1.291 OPS, plus four of his home runs. If this right-handed hitter can continue to produce adequately against right-handers, then I'll start to believe, but I need to see at least another month of this. Francoeur is hitting .273 against right-handers with a .789 OPS. A year ago, Frenchy's OBP versus right-handers was an incomprehensible .277.
Howard Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels: This one might seem odd, since, unlike Francoeur, Kendrick hadn't shown an extreme difference in splits in his career. But this season, Kendrick is torching lefties at a majestic level, and that has caused me to stop short of buying this great start. He has five of his six homers off southpaws, but against right-handers -- and he'll face a lot more of them than lefties -- Kendrick, a right-handed batter, is hitting just .259, with a .709 OPS. Frankly, I'd feel better about him if he was hitting right-handers better.
Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners: He didn't hit much against lefties or righties his rookie year, and with him being a switch hitter, what concerns me is his less-than-stellar work hitting left-handed (.186 batting average), since he'll face a lot more right-handers. Smoak is destroying southpaws, which is nice, but it's also overrating his overall work a bit.
Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs: He has hit eight home runs against right-handers, but I say that can't continue at the same rate, not with a .260 batting average and .266 OBP against them. You read that right: Against right-handers, Soriano has one walk and 19 strikeouts. This remains a player to sell high on. Brennan Boesch, OF, Detroit Tigers: The odd left-handed hitter who hit only lefties well in 2010, Boesch is hitting .370 off lefties this season, but with a .274 batting average and a walk every 10.4 at-bats against right-handers, at least he isn't being bullied by them again. That said, I'm not convinced this is an emerging player until he shows more against right-handed pitching.

 

[HacheMan]

Yessir, Liriano

Francisco Liriano came into Tuesday's game carrying a miserable set of season stats: 9.13 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and 18/18 K/BB ratio in 23 2/3 innings. His performance was so bad, in fact, that there had been hints that he might get sent to the bullpen once Kevin Slowey (shoulder) returned to action this weekend.

So naturally, Liriano went out and no-hit the White Sox on Tuesday.

Granted, it was very far from the most beautiful no-hitter ever flung (six walks and only two strikeouts, bringing his season K/BB ratio to 20/24), but it's encouraging that this comes a few days after the Twins reportedly found a flaw with Liriano's release point.

To be clear, this doesn't guarantee that we've seen the last of his struggles, and I won't personally believe that he's back until I see that first nine- or 10- strikeout game, but there's reason to hope that the 27-year-old is ready to trend in a decidedly positive direction.

The Rockies placed Ty Wigginton (oblique) on the DL and recalled Ian Stewart from Triple-A, no surprise given that Stewart hit .361 with three homers and 13 RBI in 36 at-bats in the minors. Look for Stewart to start against right-handers, with the struggling Jose Lopez (.141 average) playing against lefties.

Josh Hamilton (humerus) will begin hitting off a tee on Wednesday, which puts him slightly ahead of schedule in his recovery. As of now, it looks like the Rangers' outfielder will be back in early June.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Joe Mauer (bilateral leg weakness) is feeling stronger and is expected to resume throwing and hitting on Wednesday. This obviously qualifies as good news, but Mauer's timetable remains uncertain, with an update likely to arrive later on Wednesday.

B.J. Upton hit a walkoff homer off Jon Rauch on Tuesday, giving the fill-in Toronto closer his first blown save of the year. Meanwhile, Frank Francisco has allowed just two hits and one run in 5 1/3 innings since his return, and his first save chance could be coming sooner rather than later.

Jose Bautista underwent an MRI on his sore neck which showed no structural damage, a good indicator that the home run champ won't need a trip to the DL. However, it does appear likely that Bautista will need at least a few days off before he's ready to return.

Victor Martinez (groin) went 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI in his final rehab game and is set to be activated from the DL on Wednesday.

Jonathan Broxton was taken out of a tie game after walking two out of the three hitters he faced on Tuesday. Look for Vicente Padilla to likely get a save chance if one surfaces for the Dodgers on Wednesday.

Charlie Manuel said on Tuesday that Chase Utley [knee] may be ready to head to extended spring training for a rehab assignment soon, and beat writer David Hale writes that Utley is "getting close." It's all positive news, but his timetable remains uncertain and we still may not see Utley until closer to the end of the month.

The Giants have discussed Brandon Belt (.500 average, two homers, 11 RBI at Triple-A since his demotion) as a potential option to jumpstart their offense, but there's currently no timetable for his recall. Either way, he needs to be owned in all NL-Only leagues, and could be worth stashing in deeper mixed leagues as well.

NL Quick Hits (pitchers): Eduardo Sanchez picked up his second save, further committee-fying the St. Louis bullpen … Mat Latos allowed two runs over six innings and became the first Padres pitcher to homer at Petco Park … Cole Hamels held the Nats to one run in a complete game win … Ubaldo Jimenez (7.20 ERA) believes he has discovered a mechanical flaw in his delivery … Johan Santana made 110 throws on flat ground Monday as he continues to target a late-June/early-July return … Johnny Cueto (triceps) is slated to rejoin the Reds on Sunday, and Mike Leake (seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings Tuesday) appears likely to move to the bullpen upon his return … Tommy Hanson was pushed back to start the first game of a doubleheader Wednesday after Tuesday's rainout … Joe Blanton (elbow) is aiming to return when eligible next week.

NL Quick Hits (position players): Pablo Sandoval (hand) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks … Andre Ethier (1-for-4) extended his hitting streak to 29 games … Major signs of life from Carlos Gonzalez, who went 2-for-2 with a homer, two walks and a steal … Carlos Pena hit his first homer as a Cub … The struggling Ryan Dempster held the Dodgers to one run in seven innings … Pedro Alvarez left early with tightness in his right quad … Orlando Hudson is day-to-day with a right hamstring strain … Scott Rolen (shoulder) says he's feeling better, but won't be activated when eligible on Friday … Raul Ibanez broke an 0-for-35 by going 2-for-4 with two doubles … Willie Bloomquist (hamstring) is hoping to return when eligible on Saturday … The Mets are hopeful that Angel Pagan (oblique) will return on Saturday … Carlos Ruiz (back) is expected to return later this week … The Brewers activated Nyjer Morgan from the DL … Lucas Duda has joined the Mets while Jason Bay is on paternity leave for a couple days.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns, rankings, projections and more, check out Rotoworld's MLB Season Pass.

AL Quick Hits (pitchers): Erik Bedard took a no-hitter into the sixth and ended up allowing two runs in seven innings against Texas … Fausto Carmona threw eight innings of one-run ball in a win over the A's … David Aardsma (hip) has been shut down for a few days due to forearm stiffness … Jon Lester struck out 11 in a win over the Angels … Brian Matusz (intercostal strain) will throw on the side on Wednesday as he aims for a mid-May return … Scott Feldman (knee) threw four innings in an extended spring game as he gets closer to a minor league rehab assignment.

AL Quick Hits (position players): Shin Soo-Choo was arrested for DUI Monday but isn't expected to face additional punishment from the Indians … Evan Longoria went 1-for-4 in his return from the DL … Nelson Cruz left early due to tightness in his right quad … Travis Hafner (foot) walked as a pinch-hitter and is hoping to return to the lineup Wednesday … Franklin Gutierrez tripled in his first minor league rehab game after missing all of April with irritable bowel syndrome … Nick Markakis (knee, hand) was in the starting lineup on Tuesday, while Brian Roberts (root canal surgery) was out … Milton Bradley served a one-game suspension Tuesday … Scott Sizemore went 3-for-4 in his first game since rejoining the Tigers and is worth an immediate add in AL-Only formats … Delmon Young (ribcage) could return on the Twins' current road trip … Kevin Youkilis (illness) was a late scratch … Coco Crisp (quad) returned to the lineup … Jim Thome (oblique) was placed on the 15-day DL and replaced on the roster by Trevor Plouffe (six homers, 13 RBI at Triple-A), whose presence warrants a heads-up in AL-Only leagues … Robinson Cano (hand) returned to action Tuesday … Jacoby Ellsbury (knee) was back in the starting lineup … Aaron Hill (hamstring) will appear in an extended spring training game Wednesday in anticipation of being activated next week.

 

[HacheMan]

Broxton Out? Sanchez In?

Your fantasy team might currently be straining under the stress of multiple injuries - at least one of mine has a bench full of dinged up dudes. We don't yet have any truly bizarre injuries on the list, but there's still time. It might be tempting fate, but let's name the tiers after those injuries that are devastating our lineups and ravaging our pitching staffs.

The worse the injury, the better the closer - because if we were to ever face these closers, the result would most likely be an injury. To us. The batters.


Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Fractured Kneecap While Celebrating" Tier.)


Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

Though it's very unlikely that you'd hit a walk-off if you were facing one of these closers, it is very likely that you would hurt yourself badly facing them. And hurt yourself in an embarrassing way.

There's a distinct possibility that there is something wrong with Joakim Soria - possibly even a nagging unreported injury of some sort. He's lost about half of his swinging strike rate, and that might be a result of a fastball that is a mile-and-a-half slower than it used to be. He's throwing his slider almost twice as much as his curveball, which he's never done before, and using his fastball less often than ever before. Because he's been so good for so long, we'll leave him here, but he's hanging off the tier by a ledge. If you can sell him as an elite closer, this might be the time to do so.


Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Abdominal Surgery" Tier.)


J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets

Try to catch up to most of these fastballs, and you'd twist your trunk so badly that you probably would blow an oblique.
Craig Kimbrel had a bad week - he blew two saves and walked three batters in the past seven days. Amazingly, he still has 17 strikeouts in 12.2 innings this year, and though his control has been an open question, he only has five walks. If these were keeper rankings, he'd already be in the elite tier - he's still the closer despite his recent struggles, and will be for a while. But, for now, he'll stay in this tier and rack up the strikeouts for your fantasy team.
Brian Wilson wants to join the top tier, but he's spent the last week striking out six batters in four innings - and walking four batters in four innings. His control problems are probably related to his 'winning' stuff, but he's got to figure them out. He walked two batters in an outing against the Nationals and suddenly the bases were loaded with a 3-2 count on the final batter. That's enough to add 'gastrointestinal issues' to the list of his fantasy owner's ailments.
Francisco Rodriguez has more strikeouts than innings pitched (15 in 11), has blown only one save, and is not feeling any pressure from pitchers behind him in the pen. He did have a few too many walks early on, but he's only walked two batters in his last five appearances. Yes, the danger that he is dealt is still there, but for now, he deserves this ranking.


Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Strained Hamstring" Tier.)


Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds

Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins

Comment:
You could strain something worse facing Huston Street, but the likelihood that he, himself, strains something is also part of the package. He continued his elite work over the past week with a save and two strikeouts in one inning, and could easily move up.
It hasn't been a vintage Joel Hanrahan season, but his velocity is up over 97 MPH right now and he hasn't officially blown a save yet. Given his history, it's more likely that he returns to striking out one per inning than Chris Perez does, for example. Perez didn't blow up in the past week, but he also only has nine strikeouts (against five walks) in 13 innings so far. Those are not elite rates. You could say the same about Francisco Cordero and his nine strikeouts, four walks and 12 innings so far. Meh.
Jordan Walden blew his first game this past week, but the fact that he got right back on the horse and logged two straight saves thereafter is great news for his owner. He looks like he could close all year. We'll move Leo Nunez into this tier because he had a similar hiccup - two earned runs against the Reds on April 29th - and a similar recovery - two straight saves since. And, really, almost everything has been the same for Nunez as it was last year - except he's having better luck on batted balls. He can keep it up.


Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Back Spasms" Tier.)


Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins

Comment:
Back spasms are not fun - and it wouldn't be fun to face these guys - but they're mostly temporary and don't usually lead to extended missed time. These guys are all okay - they have one or two pitches that could hurt you - but they're also flawed.
Yeah, Drew Storen's manager still says that he's in a time-share with Sean Burnett, but the actions on the field suggest that Storen is the main man. And yeah, Kyle Farnsworth blew a save last week, but he was put into a tough situation. He was brought on in a tie game in the ninth with Torii Hunter on second base and no outs. He gave up one hit and there went the 'save.'
Kevin Gregg just keeps on trucking despite having some wonky control (six walks in ten innings), and he hasn't blow a save in the last two weeks. Those holding on to Koji Uehara - in many ways a better pitcher - may want to consider rostering other relief aces that have clearer paths to saves.
John Axford has settled down bigtime. He hasn't walked a batter since April 18th, and although that's just a span of four appearances, it's impressive given his history. We did know, that given the lack of viable alternatives in that pen, that he would get a long leash, and he looks like the Axford of 2010 again.
<!--RW-->

Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (9) (AKA: The "Mental Health Day" Tier.)


Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jonathan Broxton / Vicente Padilla / Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Frank Francisco / Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Fuentes, Oakland Athletics
Darren Oliver, Texas Rangers

Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis Cardinals

Comment:
These closers, as a group, collectively inspire fantasy owners to want a mental health day. for the most part, they are injury fill-ins, closers-by-committee, or just plane old flawed pitchers (Brandon Lyon). Jon Rauch, for example, has never had the strikeout rate of a real closer, and now after blowing the game Tuesday night, he might be out of that role for a mental health day of his own.
He's only been on the mound since 2009, but Sergio Santos may emerge from the scrum in the White Sox pen with the job this year. He has punch (95 MPH fastball), and is showing better control as he matures as a pitcher. It might be time to start dropping everyone in that pen other than Matt Thornton, who is still getting high-leverage chances and might still be his handcuff. But, yeah, it looks pretty good for Santos owners right now.
Jonathan Broxton is now the closer again, maybe. Or maybe he never lost the role. He's successfully converted two straight saves in the past week, and though his velocity is not back, it is better than it was earlier this season. Could he maybe succeed at 95 MPH even if it's not 97? That's a question we'll see answered in the next few weeks. Hold on to Vincente Padilla as a handcuff, but Broxton could hold on to this role by his scuffed-up fingernails. Although the blown game Tuesday night might have been the nail in coffin, in which case Hong-Chih Kuo is interesting also.
The new worst pen - at least from a fantasy standpoint - is being Mike Shanahaned currently by Tony LaRussa. In the last week, Ryan Franklin and Mitchell Boggs both lost a game, Fernando Salas, Trever Miller and Eduardo Sanchez have all gotten saves. Miller is a lefty and he got his save in extra innings, so he's probably further away from being a closer than the rest of the group. Fernando Salas has been pitching well, and he could easily take the job. Boggs has really only had one bad appearance all year, so anything could happen with his candidacy. Eduardo Sanchez is obviously an important figure, and we've been in love with his strikeout punch (17 strikeouts in ten innings so far) since day one. He got the last save, and he might just be the closer now. See? It's already time for a break from contemplating this pen and we haven't even gotten into the fact that Ryan Franklin is still getting opportunities in close games. You might as well own them all at this point, with a focus on Sanchez and Boggs.

<CENTER>* * * * * * * * * *</CENTER>


Injured

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers (shoulder)
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies (elbow)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)

Comment:
Neftali Feliz has already thrown a successful bullpen without any shoulder issues, and he'll make a rehab appearance Wednesday. Darren Oliver's shelf-life is shorter than an over-ripe avocado at this point. David Aardsma (hip) is also close, as he's had multiple rehab appearances so far, but his velocity has been a little down and he has been struggling some. Hold on to Brandon League even once Aardsma returns.

Andrew Bailey will face live batters for the first time on Wednesday, and if that goes well, he may face them one more time and then go out on a rehab assignment. That's at least closer than he's been so far to regaining his closer role.

The Deposed:
Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis

Is Ryan Franklin actually the closer most likely to leave this list? He's been terrible, but he's getting opportunities to pitch at the end of close games. Then again, he's terrible. Joe Nathan could also resurrect, but he gave up two earned runs Saturday against the Royals and hasn't gotten things on track just yet either.

<CENTER>* * * * * * * * * *</CENTER>

The Steals Department

Michael Brantley has been dropped in too many leagues. Sure, Grady Sizemore is back and his return has bumped Brantley down in the order. Sure, Brantley has no power at all. But you're here because you want steals, and Brantley can give you steals with a decent batting average. He is available in more than half of the leagues out there, and he still has 30+ steal upside despite only swiping four bags so far this year. He stole 46 in 528 PAs in 2009 in Triple-A, so there's your speed upside for you.

Jason Bourgeois has three steals in the last week. Sure he doesn't have any power, and his glove won't probably play long-term in center field, but right now he's got a clear path to playing time. Carlos Lee is dealing with that injury to his ribs and is out for an indeterminate amount of time - it's possible Bourgeois is only a short-term add. Then again, Lee is not getting any younger, his bat has clearly been declining, and the team has been playing him at first base some. There's opportunity here for the youngish outfielder (Bourgeois is 29) to carve out enough at-bats to steal some bags for your deep league team. He should be available, too.

 

[HacheMan]

Time to believe in Liriano after no-hitter?

Eric Karabell

Minnesota Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano entered Tuesday's outing against the Chicago White Sox fifth on ESPN's most dropped list and featuring a 9.13 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. He was among the league leaders in walks, with as many free passes as strikeouts, and had delivered only one quality outing in his five starts. Speculation ran rampant that rehabbing right-hander Kevin Slowey would be stretched out as a starter in the minors, with Liriano's rotation spot in clear jeopardy.

And then Liriano threw the first no-hitter of the 2011 season Tuesday. Of course he did.
I'm not going to tell you I expected this. In fact, in a weekly dynasty league with co-workers, I benched Liriano on Monday for middle reliever Jesse Crain. At least Crain wouldn't destroy my ERA and WHIP this week! Well, whether he does or not remains to be seen, but I'm also pretty doubtful he'll throw nine no-hit innings at any point. Hey, at least I still own Liriano. Thousands of ESPN owners cut him loose in the past week. Liriano began Tuesday 31st out of 32 Twins on the ESPN Player Rater. He was bad, real bad, put simply, one of fantasy's worst players this season.
Don't feel bad about sitting Liriano. Nor should you have felt too guilty in dropping him, though I wouldn't have gone that far. There was just no way to see this performance coming, though Liriano has obviously succeeded in the recent past; last year he was fantasy's No. 32 starting pitcher, and it earned him the No. 22 spot for starting pitchers in ESPN's average live drafts. Dropping him after a month was a bit extreme, but I can't tell you if I would have felt the same way in a few more weeks.
<OFFER>That said, if forced to choose one or the other, I'm more tempted to sell high here than to buy low, as a no-hitter is a wonderful time to move a once-struggling pitcher if you think he's not exactly the safest fellow to rely on. And let's face it, Liriano's next outing isn't scheduled to come against a struggling offense like Chicago's; it's Monday night baseball on ESPN at Fenway Park against Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox. I could surely move Liriano by then. In fact, one of my co-workers has been asking about Liriano for two years!
I'm sure he's aware that Liriano's performance Tuesday wasn't exactly flawless, but he'll be more willing to overlook the six walks against two strikeouts, the fewest strikeouts for anyone in a no-hitter since 1980. Liriano threw 123 pitches, tying a career high, to register the first complete game of his career, and often a high pitch count can signal future danger.
The problem is that as recently as last week, I expected Liriano was going to fight through his problems and be useful this season, perhaps not a top-25 starting pitcher, but good enough to be patient with in any sort of league. I can't trade him for less than value, and even today, after making history, I can't get proper value. Liriano still possesses terrible statistics, with a 6.61 ERA and more walks than strikeouts. Clearly his command has been off this season, and frankly it didn't get much better Tuesday, but the White Sox weren't patiently drawing walks and were more than willing to hit soft ground balls and weak pop ups. The Red Sox will bring a different approach.
The Twins have wanted Liriano to be more economical with his pitches, use his changeup to induce more ground balls and not try to strike out everyone but instead be a pitch-to-contact guy who can go deeper into games. So far it's not really working. Liriano has more work to do, since he currently leads the big leagues in walks, but on Tuesday Liriano earned 12 ground ball outs, the third time in four outings he reached double digits there. It's a good sign, though ultimately not good for his strikeout rate.
Here's what I think will happen in fantasy leagues: First of all, Liriano won't be on ESPN's most dropped list for long. He might end up on the most added list by next Monday. I suspect he will be involved in plenty of trade discussions over the next few days, as some owners look to cash in on their investment and others deal whatever it takes to acquire a fellow who finished 2010 with a 3.62 ERA and 201 strikeouts.
As for me, I will neither sell high nor buy low, because not all players fit into one criteria or the other. This book remains open. I own Liriano in one league, and I'll activate him for Crain by next Monday, for better or worse. As you might have guessed, I'm not confident he'll overpower those other Sox on Monday, though I do think Liriano will get back on track on a consistent basis eventually. Similarly, I won't be seeking out trades to acquire Liriano in other leagues in the next week unless it really is buying lower than I want. I suspect most Liriano owners in my leagues won't be too interested in that. Basically, we've got status quo, but be careful how much you trust Liriano. Tuesday was awesome, but he still has work to do.

 

[HacheMan]

Automatic outs

Which guys are hitting their way out of potentially fantasy valuable positions?



Ah, two things I love: Our annual rankings summits -- hopefully you followed along with our fantasy football rankings summit on Tuesday -- and baseball trivia.

Combining the two is all the more fantastic.


Odd as it might seem to be talking baseball trivia on a day we rank fantasy football players, anything's fair game for discussion on this day. Here's a doozy of a statistic, shared by colleague Brendan Roberts: Joey Votto hasn't hit an infield popup since July 2009, per FanGraphs, and in the past two calendar years -- a span of 286 games played -- he has one infield popup. You read that right; Votto went the entire 2010 season without popping up a single time, and he has yet to hit one this season. (For the record, FanGraphs' definition of an "infield popup" is a fly ball caught within 140 feet of the plate; there could be any number of "shallow outfield" pop flies that Votto has hit in that time -- including one Tuesday.)


Toss in the fact that Votto's strikeout rate has dropped significantly this season -- his 13.7 percent rate ranks 50th out of 196 qualified hitters (down from 20.9 career) -- and it's clear that, four years into his big-league career, he has established himself as one of the game's premier offensive forces.


Not that you need us to remind you of that. After all, Votto does have .317/.407/.560 lifetime major league rates, and he was the No. 10 player off the board (10.0 ADP) in preseason drafts. He's a great hitter, no duh.


But back to Brendan's point; what makes Votto so great is his ability to avoid pointless outs: Strikeouts and harmless popups. As Brendan put it, "Those are automatic outs." That got me thinking; who are the players most susceptible to throwing away at-bats? The opposite group, I mean?


The list includes some notable fantasy names: (Balls-in-play stats per FanGraphs.)


Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates (34.3 percent K rate, 3 infield popups): He was a preseason breakout favorite -- and I was very much on that bandwagon -- yet has gotten off to a miserable start, primarily thanks to all the strikeouts. Alvarez's strikeout rate is sixth-worst among qualified hitters, only three times all season has he recorded a hit in back-to-back games and not once has he strung together even a three-game hitting streak. By contrast, Alvarez is riding a current seven-game strikeout streak and has had a K streak of five or more games on three occasions. Unfortunately, this is precisely the downside we warned you about, though fortunately, the Pirates are one of the few organizations capable of being patient with a potential franchise talent. Here's what bothers me: This -- approximately the 25-game point -- was the stage of his rookie 2010 at which he began to heat up at the plate, chipping in .270/.345/.490 rates and 53 RBIs despite a 32.0 percent K rate in his final 70 contests. This year, Alvarez has hit either a line drive or a (non-popup) fly ball 39.1 percent of the time. Last season, he did that 49.6 percent of the time. The point of giving up is rapidly nearing.


Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox (39.8 percent K rate, 3 infield popups): His strikeout rate is worst in the majors, by a noticeable margin, and quite a bit higher than his 35.7 percent rate of 2010 or the 32.9 percent in his career. Feel free to forgive him the slow start somewhat after his appendectomy, as he's a .130/.250/.232 hitter who has struck out 43.5 percent of the time since, but Dunn is going to have to get comfortable in his new digs at some point or he'll wind up a cut candidate. Fortunately, there's a glimmer of hope with Dunn that hasn't been present with Alvarez: His line-drive/fly-ball rate is 62.0 percent, in line with 2010's 63.6, which suggests that the power is still there, but maybe his timing merely is not. If you can buy low on Dunn, you should.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Albert Pujols, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Miguel Cabrera, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Braun, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Troy Tulowitzki, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joey Votto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Kemp, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Robinson Cano, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Rodriguez, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Bautista, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Wright, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Holliday, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hanley Ramirez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Teixeira, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adrian Gonzalez, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Evan Longoria, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Prince Fielder, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Gonzalez, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carl Crawford, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Howard, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Upton, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nelson Cruz, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Reyes, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Youkilis, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shin-Soo Choo, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dustin Pedroia, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andrew McCutchen, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adrian Beltre, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rickie Weeks, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Heyward, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kinsler, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Paul Konerko, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Curtis Granderson, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ichiro Suzuki, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Drew Stubbs, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Phillips, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andre Ethier, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shane Victorino, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hunter Pence, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jayson Werth, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Buster Posey, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">B.J. Upton, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Young, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Uggla, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Quentin, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jay Bruce, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Victor Martinez, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Lance Berkman, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Rasmus, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Dunn, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Ortiz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Bourn, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Elvis Andrus, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joe Mauer, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Howard Kendrick, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Stanton, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Young, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ben Zobrist, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Jones, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Lind, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Billy Butler, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Tabata, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Hamilton, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Stephen Drew, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Gordon, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ike Davis, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Grady Sizemore, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Rios, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Coco Crisp, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Neil Walker, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Zimmerman, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Torii Hunter, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Starlin Castro, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alfonso Soriano, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Corey Hart, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Martin Prado, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Logan Morrison, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexei Ramirez, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Morneau, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian McCann, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Placido Polanco, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aubrey Huff, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Santana, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bobby Abreu, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Coghlan, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>103 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Juan Pierre, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Casey McGehee, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Desmond, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Roberts, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jimmy Rollins, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Russell Martin, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Pablo Sandoval, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gaby Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>113 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Jeter, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Damon, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vladimir Guerrero, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Hill, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aramis Ramirez, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dexter Fowler, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Delmon Young, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>102 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jed Lowrie, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>112 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>103 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Kubel, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>105 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>104 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chipper Jones, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>110 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>105 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Cuddyer, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>106 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Beltran, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>120 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kendrys Morales, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>108 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Orlando Cabrera, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>125 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>109 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Swisher, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>116 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>110 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kelly Johnson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>106 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Markakis, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>109 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>112 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Reynolds, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>108 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>113 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonny Gomes, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>114 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Luke Scott, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>115 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Bay, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>104 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>116 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Danny Espinosa, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>117 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cameron Maybin, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>124 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>118 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Aviles, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>119 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Napoli, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>118 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>120 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Pedro Alvarez, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>121 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Smoak, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>122 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Miguel Montero, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>119 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>123 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Wieters, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>121 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>124 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ben Francisco, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>125 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Joyce, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Austin Jackson, Detroit Tigers (35.0 percent K rate, 2 infield popups): Everything sabermetricians cited to warn you about Jackson's prospects of a sophomore slump has come to fruition. In addition to his pile of "automatic outs," his BABIP has dropped from .396 as a rookie to .293 as a sophomore, and his line-drive rate has slipped from 24.2 to 17.8 percent. He's speedy … and that's about the best you can say in his defense in fantasy at this stage of his career. It's AL-only appeal at best, and it might not even be enough to keep him in the lineup.


Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins (32.9 percent K rate, 3 infield popups): Somehow, I'm not surprised he's on this list. Wow, Stanton whiffs a lot and gets under the ball too often? That's the name of his game; he had a 34.3 percent whiff rate and popped up 19 times in 100 games as a rookie. In exchange, Stanton has smoked line drives or meaningful flies 50.9 percent of the time this season, and that's up from 48.9 percent in 2010. I've said previously that I believe all the preseason time missed to injuries might have put him a bit behind the pack in terms of preparation, so I was willing to be patient. Sure enough, he has rewarded the patient with .294/.390/.627 rates in his past 14 games, and if you're to have any hope of investing in this elite talent, now is likely your last chance.


Gordon Beckham, White Sox (18.9 percent K rate, 10 infield popups): That infield popup number is most shocking; he had 16 apiece in each of his past two seasons. This year: 10! In addition, Beckham has fallen into all sorts of bad habits: His swing rate at nonstrikes has soared to 35.0 percent; his contact rate on all swings has dropped to 76.7 percent; and he has missed on 12.0 percent of his swings. As talented as he is, he's off to an even more disconcerting start than he was in 2010. It took Beckham until July to get his 2010 on track. Can you afford to wait that long, especially given that there's no guarantee when it might happen?


Carlos Lee, Houston Astros (9.9 percent K rate, 16 infield popups): He's not on this list for the strikeouts; he's on here for the absurd number of popups he has hit, easily the majors-leading total in the category. Like Beckham, Lee is off to as poor a start as he endured in 2010, and his ground-ball rate continues to rise, up to a career-high 40.0 percent so far. He's turning 35 on June 20, so the prospects of a rebound aren't necessarily as good as Beckham's. Lee has had a fine career, but he's on the clear downslope of his career, so set your high-end expectations at the .264/.314/.454 rates, 19 homers and 68 RBIs he had in 108 games from June 1 on last year, if not slightly beneath that.


Three up



Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays suggested that Joyce might be under consideration for their cleanup role once Evan Longoria returned from the disabled list, and that apparently is their plan. Sure enough, he has started each of the team's past five games against a right-handed starter in that spot. It makes sense, as he's a .270/.363/.525 lifetime hitter against righties and .382/.432/.588 this season, though his .156/.276/.219 rates against lefties assure that he might always suffer the life of a platoon mate. Platoon players are rarely attractive in fantasy, unless they're so strong against a particular side -- and from the left-handed side at that -- and are in a prominent enough role to rack up counting numbers. Joyce could wind up playing against every righty and hitting behind Sam Fuld (.355 career on-base percentage), Johnny Damon (.354) and Longoria (.360), so he could be a sneaky source of homers and RBIs if you pick your matchups right.


Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays: He was incredibly lucky in 2009 and equally unlucky last year, and the notion of splitting the difference and declaring it a realistic 2011 expectation seemed fair in the preseason. But Lind has made huge, noteworthy strides in one area so far, and it increases the hopes of his returning to 2009 form: He's a .355/.364/.548 hitter against lefties, substantially improved from his dreadful .117/.159/.182 numbers of 2010. He's also 13-for-28 (.464 average) with four homers and 11 RBIs in his past seven games, which helps erase the memory of his poor start to the year but also cements his status as a streaky player.


Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: He's the National League's leading home run hitter (11) and is already nearly halfway to his 2010 total of 24. Soriano's plate discipline has been shaky, as his walk rate is a career-worst 2.8 percent and he has swung at a whopping 48.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, and his 28.2 home run/fly-ball percentage shows that he has been incredibly lucky in that department. In other words, he'll cool off, but it's nevertheless a good sign for a 35-year-old who hadn't shaped up as one of the more durable players of the past few years. Enjoy the ride if you've got him.


Three down



Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals: We warned you that Espinosa would be a streaky player. After getting off to a scorching .292/.383/.563 start in his first 16 games, he has slumped to .146/.226/.146 rates in 13 contests since. It's his strikeout rate; he has whiffed 25.0 percent of the time, not to mention has nine infield popups. Espinosa was a player with sleeper potential thanks to his 20/20 ability, but batting average should be a persistent problem and if you have the luxury of sitting him through his cold spells, you should. Most disturbing: He has a mere 11.1 percent line-drive rate after only 8.3 in 28 games last season.


Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies: He wasn't far off inclusion on the strikeouts/popups list, as he has a 28.4 percent whiff rate and has popped up twice already. Ibanez also isn't driving the ball -- he has a 14.7 percent line-drive and 52.9 percent ground-ball rate -- which is a problem for a Citizens Bank Park hitter. There's already talk of Ibanez slipping into a straight platoon, perhaps a smart strategy for a 38-year-old who has had an OPS below .700 against lefties in five of the past 10 seasons and has .174/.269/.391 rates against them this year, but unlike the aforementioned Joyce, Ibanez isn't quite lethal enough against righties to be a helpful fantasy asset in shallow leagues in that role.


Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: His return from a concussion this season might have gone smoothly thus far from a game-play angle, but from a pure run-production aspect, he has been nothing but disappointing. To date, he has yet to string together a three-game hitting streak, and his isolated power is .108, or less than half his career number (.223). That's particularly troubling considering Morneau's early-season history; he's a .285/.362/.507 lifetime hitter in April and .302/.373/.544 before the All-Star break. Obviously, he should get better than this, but he was still overdrafted in the preseason.

 

[HacheMan]

Injury update: Bautista, Cruz, Broxton

Stephania Bell


Apparently the rough times for those playing third base is not quite over. Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Jose Bautista is the latest of the group to suffer a setback, but how much time it will cost him is uncertain. Bautista left Sunday's game against the New York Yankees in the seventh inning with reported neck tightness and was out of the lineup Tuesday. According to the Blue Jays' official website, Bautista woke up Tuesday morning feeling even worse despite the team having an off day on Monday. That led to an MRI, which reportedly revealed no significant injury. Blue Jays manager John Farrell stated, "There is no bulging of a disc. There is no spine issue or anything like that. It is all musculature, so we have to let that subside."

While the fact that there was no overtly visible damage is a good sign, it's worth noting that significant pain and spasm are often present without those signs. Any regular person who has woken up in the morning with a stiff neck or painful back spasms can relate. Most regular folks aren't getting an MRI for these episodes (and rightfully so) because there won't be much to find. An overextended reach, heavy or improper lifting, even an awkward sleeping position are just a few of the things that can contribute to muscular pain and spasm in the spine. A few days of limited activity while trying to allow any inflammation to subside often takes care of the episode, and probably will do the same for Bautista. He is expected to miss the entire series against the Tampa Bay Rays, but depending how he fares each day, it is not out of the question that Bautista could return this weekend. At this point there is no indication that he will require a DL stint but much depends on how he progresses.


• Keep your eye on Texas Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz, who left Tuesday's game early with tightness in his right quadriceps muscle. He is expected to be evaluated further Wednesday. Cruz is no stranger to muscular injuries, having battled issues with his hamstring last season. In fact, here's what I wrote about Cruz this winter in our fantasy baseball draft kit:

Like teammate Josh Hamilton, Cruz gives fantasy owners a lot to love, as long as they can put up with injury absences. The types of injuries Cruz dealt with in 2010, however, were more worrisome. Three separate trips to the DL because of hamstring ailments is a big concern when you're needed for run-scoring and base stealing. This was not lost on Cruz, who opted to skip winter ball in the Dominican Republic in favor of more rest and worked on altering his running style. It remains to be seen what effect, if any, this will have on his ability to stay healthy while still being productive.


Hmmm. Hamilton is currently on the DL as he recovers from a fracture in his right arm (although it's worth noting he is expected to start swinging from a tee Wednesday, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, several days ahead of schedule). Will Cruz be joining him? Stay tuned.


• Remember when Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton said a week ago that his elbow didn't feel 100 percent? He was onto something. Anyone who was watching the ninth inning of Tuesday's game could see that he still wasn't right. Broxton was pulled after walking two consecutive batters on eight consecutive balls and MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reported via Twitter that he is being shut down. There is no timetable at this juncture, but usually any stoppage due to elbow or shoulder pain translates to at least a week or two of doing nothing with a ball. The Dodgers will be looking to get at the root of what's causing the evil for Broxton and will not rush his return. Don't count on him for at least this month.

 

[HacheMan]

Expecting a Closer?
Perspective changes everything.

If I tell you I have a pitcher that usually strikes about six per nine, has about average control, and gets groundballs at an average rate, and has done so for three years straight - you might take that pitcher. Sounds decent.

If I tell you that pitcher is a closer on your team, you might get angry. That's because relievers usually strike out about a batter per inning, and closers usually have elite strikeout rates beyond that. And if you don't have an elite strikeout rate, you should have elite control or get groundballs by the bucketful. If you didn't really show any of those abilities, you really wouldn't shouldn't be a closer.

So, yeah, Brandon Lyon never was supposed to be a closer. And now, after blowing the game Wednesday to the Reds by giving up four hits and not retiring a batter or even hitting 90 on the gun with his fastball, he might not be a closer much longer. Look for Mark Melancon to step forward soon and claim the role, although Wilton Lopez last year had elite control and groundballs by the bucket. Still, Melancon is pitching better right now, and as little as that *should* matter, it does.

* Other bullpens got some news, too. Jonathan Broxton woke up and felt soreness in his elbow after blowing the game Tuesday night. He's been shut down and the Dodgers are looking to find an MRI machine that can fit his 300-pound frame. True story. Look for Vincente Padilla to get most of the looks in the meantime, though Hong-Chih Kuo, once fully healthy, could steal some saves versus lefty-heavy lineups. In Toronto, "Frankie" Frank Francisco got the save against the Rays and should be the closer going forward even if the save wasn't done on a clean slate. Jon Rauch, who blew up in his last appearance, is only valuable as a handcuff - which isn't a bad idea given Francisco's extensive injury history. Jordan Walden blew his first save against the Red Sox by giving up two runs in the ninth. Fernando Rodney also gave up a run, but Jordan Walden seems more secure than anyone else in these two paragraphs. Grant Balfour got a save, but only because Brian Fuentes needed a night off - it's okay that I dropped him before the game in a holds and saves league because his walk rate will always hurt his WHIP. Neftali Feliz struck out three in an inning for Double-A Frisco and said he'd be ready Friday.

For the real drama, meet me in St. Louis. Just a day after notching his second save by throwing five straight sliders to the last two batters, Eduardo Sanchez lost a tie game in the top of the ninth at home by giving up a mammoth home run to Mike Stanton. And seriously, it was a mammoth home run. Mitchell Boggs came on to relieve him and is probably next in line. Fernando Salas wasn't used Wednesday night, but is probably behind the other two despite having two saves of his own. Tony La Russa, you make me very very mad.

* Some problematic dudes might be making their way back. With youth, it's always easy to join the bandwagon. Alex Rios went three-for-four with a home run against the Twins Wednesday night and could be on his way back. Some the problem with him has been expectations, some of it luck. David DeJesus doesn't have much power, but at least he looks healthy after hitting two home runs against the Indians. Kelly Johnson hit a home run! He likes hitting at home in Arizona enough that he makes for a good supplemental piece in any league. It's hard to depend on him because of his streaks though. Nick Markakis collected two hits - one a home run - to make his second multi-hit night in a row. His low power upside makes him a bad choice for a large investment, but if you can get him cheap he usually figures the batting average out. Adam Lind recovered nicely. His four-for-four with a home run has his average over .300. Jay Bruce hit the game-winning double against the Astros. He'll be better.

Veterans are a little riskier - they could always go in the tank for good. The good news is that Carlos Beltran looks healthy enough to hit .280 with 25 home runs in the corner outfield - he hit a double and a single in four plate appearances Wednesday night. Raul Ibanez got three hits and a solo home run and is now five for his last eight. That's nice, but did you know Magglio Ordonez, who also hit a home run Wednesday night, is two years younger and is making much more contact on pitches inside the zone? Ibanez has that nice home park, though, in his favor. Carlos Pena hit his second home run in two days. He's only 33.

* Superlative pitching needs to be pointed out. Tim Lincecum struck out twelve Mets in seven innings. That's an under-rated lineup, but that's also an ace. Check out his 57/16 K/BB ratio in 47 1/3 innings. Brandon Morrow struck out seven in 6 1/3, keeping the Rays to one run. He has 23 strikeout in 17 2/3 innings, which makes his seven walks okay even if his control gets a little worse. Tommy Hanson's two runs over six innings with seven strikeouts against the Brewers deserves to be included. Carlos Zambrano has been just good enough, and striking out four and allowing one run and one walk against is good enough even if it was just the Dodgers.

Not only did C.J. Wilson strike out twelve in a two-run complete game, but Michael Pineda struck out nine in seven innings against him. In the same game! Pineda gave up four runs and took the loss, but he's the one that will give more strikeouts going forward. He's looked dominant in most of his innings so far this year. Jhoulys Chacin has been as good as we thought he could be, and he gave up two runs and three hits over seven innings against the Diamondbacks. Enjoy him if you got him. Ervin Santana pitched four hitless innings in Boston before the 2 1/2 rain delay ended his day. Josh Beckett was pitching scoreless frames for the other team.

Some pitchers could still be superlative going forward. Max Scherzer has had some bad nights, but has undeniable stuff. He dominated the Yankees, keeping them scoreless in eight innings with nine strike outs. Haiya! Zack Greinke returned and allowed four earned with six strikeouts and one walk in four innings, but it's really early for him. Sure, he lost velocity as the game went on, but this was basically like a spring training start for him. Go shopping for him if he's out there.

National League Quick Hits: Chris Carpenter gave up three walks (and ten hits and four earned) against the Marlins but will be fine (if he's healthy) … Stephen Drew (groin) was a late scratch and is day-to-day … Danny Espinosa ended a home run drought by taking Danys Baez deep in the ninth inning, and his high strikeout rate is to blame for these long bouts of ineffective work … Jason Bay (congratulations) should be back Thursday after his wife gave birth Tuesday night … Martin Prado is all about the hits and the hits alone, and a three-hit game Wednesday might be a sign … Jose Tabata (hamstring) should be back any day since he's been available to pinch-hit recently … Andre Ethier (elbow inflammation) missed Wednesday's game as a late scratch … Nate McLouth got on base eight times in eight plate appearances in the double-header Wednesday; He normally hits too many fly balls to keep up this batting average, but he's a nice pickup in most leagues if he's still out there … Angel Pagan (oblique) began his rehab assignment Wednesday … Equally interesting is the fact that Andres Torres (Achilles) is starting his rehab assignment as well … Carlos Lee (rib) will miss several more days, making speedy Jason Bourgeois useful for a few more plate appearances … Travis Wood held the Astros two runs but is a fringe mixed league own … Pick up Allen Craig in deep leagues as he'll probably start at third base for the Cardinals going forward (he has for the past two, and has a good bat despite a bad glove) … Ryan Doumit hit a grand slam but is only on pace for about three hundred at-bats … Logan Forsythe came up and may see some time at second base while Orlando Hudson (hamstring) is on the DL; He could provide a few steals and the ability to get on base … Jon Jay hit a home run in the ninth inning, but he'll only play when Albert Pujols needs a breather … Chris Capuano is doing some things right - eight hits, two runs, five strikeouts and three walks against the Giants offense is just enough to get a shrug these days, though … Jason Marquis can be useful in deeper leagues but he gave up six earned in five innings against the Phillies, so don't use him against them again probably … Vance Worley has looked good to far (he gave up four hits and one run in six innings against the Nationals) but he's not this good … Barry Enright hit a home run, but gave up six runs in five innings; He's not really good at all, as a pitcher … Javier Vazquez is looking done - the Cardinals offense that took him for four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings is not that deep and Vazquez only struck out two … Different teams, but similar ownership - Juan Uribe and Rick Ankiel both have hand things that will keep them out a few days … Fred Lewis came off the DL and Jeremy Hermida went down.

American League Quick Hits: Derek Jeter left Wednesday's game with a sore right hip and is day-to-day … Ricky Romero has been scratched from his Thursday start with a strained oblique and the team says it's mild … Jose Bautista (neck) should be back in the lineup by Sunday, along with Aaron Hill (hamstring) … Nelson Cruz (quad) is day-to-day after a late scratch … Victor Martinez returned and collected a single and a walk … Andrew Bailey (forearm) looked fine in his bullpen session and should head out to rehab soon … John Danks lost, and didn't strike anyone out, but he's still pitching well overall anyway … Phil Hughes apparently got a cortisone shot April 28th and is now feeling better or something … Pronk is back - Travis Hafner went two for four Wednesday … Franklin Gutierrez (stomach) played five innings in center field Tuesday … Chris Davis hit a home run in Seattle … Jake Arrietta just doesn't get the swinging strikes to be an elite arm, but holding the Royals to one run on five baserunners with eight strikeouts in seven innings is nice … Jeff Niemann (back) left his start after four innings, but the team said it was precautionary … Ben Revere is up, and has enough speed to register if he gets playing time in the Twins outfield … J.J. Hardy (oblique) heads out on rehab Friday … Don't put too much stock in Jeff Francoeur, as we have plenty of evidence that says he's only passable against left-handers and not otherwise helpful to teams either fantasy or real - make sure to ignore his third home run in three days as long as you can because his luck will turn … Scott Sizemore has a little power and a little speed and has started two straight games for the Tigers at second base … Freddy Garcia is a little over the hill, and four runs in seven innings against the Tigers shouldn't be an encouragement to buy him … Josh Tomlin's not really a great pitcher so don't put too much credence into his two earned in 7 2/3 Wednesday night - it was against the Athletics … Bobby Abreu was oh-four-his-first-six plate appearances, and then ripped a two-run single to put the Angels ahead of the Red Sox in the thirteenth … Brandon Webb is completely droppable as he's moved to the bullpen and hasn't topped 81 recently … Joel Zumay is droppable as well as he's acknowledged that he won't pitch this season … Recently signed Rangers prospect Leonys Martin played in his first extended spring training game and is probably headed to Double-A.

 

[HacheMan]

Second Chance For Stewart?
I was asked on a podcast earlier this week who were some of my biggest surprises and disappointments of the first month of the season. I won't dwell on the negatives here, though you can probably guess a few of them (Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Yovani Gallardo), but the biggest surprises that come to mind are Lance Berkman and Bud Norris.

I mentioned Berkman for obvious reasons, as he is currently second in the league in batting average, third in homers and second in RBI. I was also quick to mention that I see him as a sell-high, mostly because I have serious concerns about his ability to stay healthy while playing the outfield on almost an everyday basis.

However, Norris is a more interesting case. I included him on a list of under the radar starting pitchers back in February -- and on Waiver Wired a couple weeks back -- so this hasn't come completely out of nowhere, but the biggest surprise is that he has managed to cut down on his walks (3.03 BB/9) from last season (4.51 BB/9). Who knows if he'll be able to keep it up, but man, I have always loved his ability to miss bats.

Let's move on to the good stuff.

MIXED LEAGUES

Ian Stewart 3B, Rockies (Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 26.4 percent)

Third base has been a very difficult position for fantasy owners to fill this season. We've already seen Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, David Freese, Casey Blake and Scott Rolen all go on the disabled list while Pedro Alvarez and Jose Bautista are currently sidelined with injuries of their own. Why not give Stewart another chance? Of course, he was demoted in April after going 2-for-26 (.077) to begin the season, but the Rockies called him up this week after Ty Wigginton went on the DL with -- you guessed it --- an oblique injury. It's worth noting that Stewart was batting .361 with three homers over his first 46 plate appearances with Triple-A Colorado Springs. Jose Lopez could get some looks against left-handed pitching, but Stewart's power potential is worth the gamble if you need help at the hot corner.

Angel Pagan OF, Mets (Yahoo: 41 percent owned, ESPN: 36.8 percent)

Pagan is floating nicely under the radar right now for two reasons. One, well, he's been on the disabled list for the past two weeks. And two, he was batting just .159 over his first 82 plate appearances prior to the oblique injury. His anemic batting average isn't just a matter of bad luck, either, as he was hitting infield pop ups more frequently than he did last year. Still, we shouldn't let less than 100 plate appearances scare us away, especially after he batted .290 and swiped 37 bags in 2010. The Mets are expected to activate him from the disabled list on Saturday, so I'd tuck him away where available.

Jake Peavy SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 47 percent owned, ESPN: 28.5 percent)

Here's what I like to call a fantasy lottery ticket. As you might already be aware, Peavy underwent a unique procedure last July to repair a detached lat muscle near his right shoulder. There have been some stops and starts in his rehab, including a scare a little over two weeks ago, but he appears back on track after striking out eight over 5 2/3 innings with Triple-A Charlotte last Friday. If all goes well during his rehab start Thursday, he could rejoin the White Sox as soon as next Wednesday against the Angels. Look, nobody knows what to expect here, but you could do worse than stash him and see how he fares his first time out.

Eduardo Sanchez RP, Cardinals (Yahoo: 15 percent, ESPN: 10.5 percent)

Before we get started here, let me just say that Tony La Russa doesn't give a hoot about your fantasy team. And if he did, we wouldn't have seen four different pitchers get saves over the past 10 days. It's simply anybody's guess who he will use in the ninth inning at this point. Sanchez probably didn't do himself any favors by giving up a go-ahead two-run homer to Mike Stanton on Wednesday night, but I find it difficult to ignore his electric stuff as a late-game option. The 22-year-old right-hander has an impressive 19/5 K/BB ratio over his first 11 1/3 innings. Mitchell Boggs and Fernando Salas could also be in the mix here, but I'd bank on Sanchez's ability to miss bats.

John Lackey SP, Red Sox (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 35.1 percent)

Probably didn't think you'd see him here a month ago. Lackey was knocked around pretty good in his first two starts of the season, but has seemingly righted the ship by allowing just three earned runs over his past three starts combined. I'm not completely convinced he's back to form, as batters are making contact against him more often than ever before, but he's at least a solid play against an Angels team that has struggled against right-handed pitching so far this season.

Wilson Betemit 3B, Royals (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 32.9 percent)

Why are fantasy owners having such a tough time believing Betemit is a legitimate option? He's batting .304 with 14 homers and 58 RBI since last June 1. That's pretty darn useful. One interesting note is that he started at first base on Tuesday night, which could indicate that the Royals would like to use him in a utility role if or when third base prospect Mike Moustakas is called up to the majors later this season. Betemit's future playing time is in doubt, but he's a perfectly respectable injury fill-in at third base.

Johnny Cueto SP, Reds (Yahoo: 41 percent owned, ESPN: 42 percent)

Another pitcher returning from injury, Cueto began the season on the disabled list due to right triceps irritation. He hasn't been perfect during his rehab stint, giving up 12 runs -- 10 earned -- on 19 hits over 14 1/3 innings, but the Reds plan to start him Sunday against the the Cubs. While Cueto's strikeout rate has declined since his rookie season in 2008, he posted a career-low 3.64 ERA over 31 starts last season. I wouldn't activate him immediately, but the 25-year-old right-hander should be owned in most mixed leagues before long.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Mark Melancon RP, Astros (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Brandon Lyon blew his fourth save in eight chances Wednesday against the Reds, prompting many to wonder if the poor outing will cost him his job. Astros manager Brad Mills wasn't quite ready to go there after the game, but Melancon is the speculative pickup for the ninth inning. The former Yankee farmhand did well in a brief stint with the Astros last season and has a 1.72 ERA and 12/6 K/BB ratio over his first 15 2/3 innings this season. Melancon averages around 92 mph on his fastball, so he doesn't overpower batters, but he gets a fair amount of strikeouts while limiting the walks and inducing plenty of groundballs. File him away before it becomes official.

Scott Sizemore 2B, Tigers (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 1.4 percent)

Fed up with the lack of production at second base, the Tigers sent Will Rhymes to the minors earlier this week and called up Sizemore. You might remember that Sizemore was hyped as a fantasy sleeper last season, but he batted just .224 with three homers and 14 RBI over 143 at-bats. We're still not sure if he can hack it against big league pitching, but he certainly earned the promotion by batting .408/.495/.605 with two homers and 15 RBI over his first 92 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo this season. He's batting second in Jim Leyland's batting order, so his speed and pop is worth watching in deeper mixed formats or in those that use a MI (middle infielder) spot.

Jason Bourgeois OF, Astros (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 4.2 percent)

Bourgeois has taken advantage of some recent injuries in the Astros' lineup to land very favorably on our fantasy radar. The speedy 29-year-old outfielder has nine hits, three RBI and four stolen bases over the past four games. Carlos Lee continues to be sidelined with a hip contusion following a collision with teammate Angel Sanchez over the weekend, so Bourgeois is well worth using in deeper mixed leagues as a short-term play.

<!--RW-->

AL ONLY

Trevor Plouffe SS, Twins (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Twins' shortstops have combined to bat just .189 with zero homers and a .509 OPS this season. They had to do something to shake things up, so Alexi Casilla was moved to second base this week while Plouffe was called up from the minors on Wednesday. The former 2004 first-round pick struggled in his first taste of the big leagues last season and his .255/.317/.396 batting line in the minors doesn't give much room for optimism, but he was batting .282 with six homers and 13 RBI over his first 91 plate appearances for Triple-A Rochester this season. He's at least worth a shot until Tsuyoshi Nishioka returns from the disabled list.

Ben Revere OF, Twins (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Another part of the Twins' roster shakeup, Revere was called up from the minors Wednesday after outfielder Jason Repko was placed on the disabled list. The main reason you should pay attention to Revere is for his plus-speed. The 23-year-old has stolen at least 36 bases in each of his last three seasons in the minor leagues. One potential scenario is that the Twins could continue to play him in left field once Delmon Young returns from the disabled list, which would move Michael Cuddyer to second base, at least until Tsuyoshi Nishioka returns. Not saying it will happen, but the opportunity is there.

Alex White SP, Indians (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.9 percent)

I immediately kicked myself for not recommending White last week, as he yielded two runs over six innings in his major league debut while filling in for the Carlos Carrasco against the Tigers this past Saturday. Carrasco and Mitch Talbot are both on the comeback trail from their respective injuries, so White's initial stay in the big leagues might not be a long one, but he's at least assured another start Saturday against the Angels. The 2009 first-round pick should be filed away just in case he sticks around.

Kevin Slowey SP, Twins (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.3 percent)

This is my final Twin of the day, I promise. Slowey is expected to be activated from the disabled list for this weekend's series against the Red Sox, where he'll return in a middle relief role. That may be the case for now, but the Twins stretched him out as a starter in the minor leagues and Nick Blackburn has looked pretty vulnerable of late. Ron Gardenhire's logic can be frustrating at times, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Slowey back in the starting rotation sometime in the next couple of weeks.

NL ONLY

Jay Gibbons OF, Dodgers (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Gibbons was activated from the disabled list earlier this week after Marcus Thames went down with a quad injury. The 34-year-old outfielder is over the vision issues that plagued him during spring training and hit safely in six out of his final seven games with Triple-A Albuquerque before getting the call from the minors. Jerry Sands is probably still the man in left field, but he's in a bit of a funk right now, so Gibbons could steal away some playing time should he continue to struggle.

Tom Gorzelanny SP, Nationals (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 1.2 percent)

How is this guy not owned in more leagues? Perhaps Gorzelanny is flying under the radar by virtue of playing for the Nationals, but he has a 2.93 ERA and 23/9 K/BB ratio over his first five starts this season. Throw out his clunker in his season debut against the Mets and he looks even more impressive. Sure, Gorzy has benefitted from a low batting average on balls in play and his command isn't great historically, but he should stick on your roster for most of the year in NL-only formats.

Mike Fontenot 2B/3B/SS, Giants (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Mike Fontentot, No. 3 hitter. I'm not sure how many more chances I'll get to say that in my life, so I just wanted to put it out there for posterity's sake. Pablo Sandoval required hamate bone surgery earlier this week, which moved Miguel Tejada over to third base and Fontenot, who is a natural second baseman, to shortstop. The return of Mark DeRosa could change things in a hurry, but Fontenot should put up respectable numbers from either middle infield spot right now, especially against right-handed pitching.

Allen Craig OF, Cardinals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Craig was activated from the disabled list earlier this week following the injury to David Freese. Nick Punto and Daniel Descalso will also likely see time at third base during his absence, but Craig got the start on Wednesday night, going 1-for-3 with a double and a walk. Craig, 26, has a modest .265/.329/.430 batting line over his first 163 major league plate appearances, but he undoubtedly has the most offensive potential of the group. He'll be more useful once he gets eligibility at third base, but with Freese likely sidelined until late-July, that's probably not far off.

 

[HacheMan]

The vindication of Matthew Berry
Matthew Berry


Pumping my fist in the air with a "Hells yeah!" was the last thing I expected.

I write about it every year and I anticipated to once again be dismayed, disgusted and annoyed. And yet, at the end ... vindication!


Make no mistake, when I read the 2011 edition of Maxim's Hot 100 list, I had my share of head-scratchers. Like, where's Marisa Miller? She was No. 10 on last year's list and now she doesn't make the top 100? Was she in a grease fire I didn't hear about? Look, you want to drop Kristin Cavallari (last year's No. 76) from the list? I got no issue with that. Bears fans will tell you the addition of Jay Cutler drops anyone from contention.


But no Angelina Jolie (last year's 38), Jessica Biel (last year's 32) or Eliza Dushku (26 in 2010) on this list? Did they suddenly change appearance in a significant way? Or worse, fire their publicists?


I don't understand why Carly Foulkes isn't on this list, and there's no explanation for "Jersey Shore" cast member Jenni "JWoww" Farley at 78. The prettiest girl on that show is clearly DJ Pauly D. And shouldn't the Maxim Hot 100 be the one place in which we don't have to deal with the royal wedding? Kate Middleton somehow shows up at 26, and I got news for the gang at Maxim: We don't need to suck up to England anymore. We won.

Who needs to work on her hotness? Well, Brooklyn Decker (fell from No. 2 last year to 36 this year), Arianny Celeste (23 to 70), Joanna Krupa (37 to 55) and Zoe Saldana (3 to 37) apparently had down seasons and should work on getting back to fundamentals and stop doing all the non-hot things they did last year. At least I understand Kim Kardashian's fall (9 to 35) since she traded in a Saint for a Net. Sure, you're courtside, but it's courtside in New Jersey. Just saying ...


Not everyone fell. January Jones (33 in 2010 to 12 this year), Stacy Keibler (82 to 72) and Mila Kunis (22 to 5) are among the women who clearly spent long hours getting back to basics, rededicated themselves to hotness and came in with the kind of season that takes someone to the next level. And it should be noted that Scarlett Johansson (14 last year, 14 this year) managed the amazing feat of staying the exact same level of hotness. It's that kind of Ichiro-like consistency that makes her an All-Star.


They almost lost me with Cameron Diaz at No. 4. You feed popcorn to A-Rod, you go the other way on my ranks, but here's my biggest issue with it: If they published this list without Diaz on it (as they did last year), no one would have said anything. There would not have been outrage at the omission. "No Cameron Diaz? I can't take this list seriously anymore!" is the kind of thing that would not be heard. But, if I published my preseason baseball ranks without Evan Longoria (this year's No. 4 on our draft results), everyone would have said "No Longoria? What a terrible list. I can't take these ranks seriously." But hey, that's just me. And in fairness, "There's Something About Mary" was just released in 1998, which, in model years, is only 70 years ago.


So I was just about to toss it when I started noticing a lot of things I liked. Lindsay Lohan at 38. Apparently, I'm not the only one attracted to crazy. Hope Dworaczyk should be higher than 97, but I'm glad she made the list. Love that the underrated Sarah Shahi is representing Texas well and showed up at 24.


But none of that compares to what I noticed next.


Megan Fox, listed at No. 17.


And at No. 7? As in, 10 spots higher than Megan Fox? As in Megan Fox is 10 percent less hot than this person, according to the people at Maxim, who have been doing this for 11 years now?

Anne Hathaway.


That's right, chumps. Anne Hathaway.


"Sexual Chocolate!" (drops mic, walks off the stage).


You see, on March 25, 2008, I published one of my preseason baseball articles called "You Heard Me." I made many bold predictions and statements in that piece, including this one: "Anne Hathaway is hotter than Megan Fox. You heard me."


Reaction to that was swift, strong and continues to this day. Readers went bananas over it and let me know via Twitter, email, message board, carrier pigeon. A typical comment was like the one "JazzGP" wrote in the conversation pages after that article.


"Dude anyone who thinks Anne Hathaway is hotter then Megan Fox can't be trusted with any of his other predictions ... at all! Not only that but on your way out you're gonna have to turn in your man card. Silly Boy!"


Well, who's laughing now, JazzGP? Oh, it took almost three years, but I am finally not alone on that island. I merely landed here first and planted my flag, and you must now all pay homage to me! I have been proven right. We now have definitive evidence than Anne Hathaway is hotter than Megan Fox.


As I basked in the glory, it started me thinking about this year's "You Heard Me" piece.


Some predictions, such as Jordan Walden leading the Angels in saves, are off to good starts. Some, such as my bold prediction that I might succumb to public pressure and finally admit Megan Fox is hotter than Anne Hathaway, are clearly not going to happen. And there are many that are too soon to call either way.


But I'm not going to lie, there are some bold predictions that aren't looking too good. But instead of just bailing on them, I'm hanging tough. Here are eight of my bold predictions that I believe in and on which, much like Anne over Megan, I will ultimately be proven right.


1. Dan Uggla hits .300 with 40 home runs


Yeah. Look, they were called bold predictions for a reason, you know? I realize Uggla's been brutal so far, but I'm staying the course. You know the power will be there. Even with Uggla being horrific and hovering around the Mendoza line, he's still on pace for 25 home runs (and he's hit at least 31 for four straight years). Uggla has a career batting average on balls in play of .298 and is currently at .213, so he's gotten a bit unlucky so far. Not to mention 23 of the Braves' first 31 games have come against teams with staff ERAs ranked in the upper half of the National League. Seeing Uggla's lower walk rate makes me wonder if he's pressing a bit to justify the contract or impress the new teammates or something, but regardless I expect some hits to start falling and for Uggla to relax and for him to be the stud fantasy second basemen you drafted. Or are about to buy low from some worried owner.



2. Tyler Colvin hits 40 home runs.
Apparently, I like the number 40 when doing bold predictions. My belief in Colvin isn't based on a lot that we've seen this year, but again he has a crazy-low BABIP (he currently stands at .135, his career mark is .272) and he has two other things going for him: Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena. Fukodome is well-known for starting hot only to fade (last three years he has a .326 average in April, a .244 average for all other months), and Pena has health issues and seems to be allergic to hitting the ball. Colvin's also filled in for Alfonso Soriano (those knees are not rock solid), so one way or the other I expect Colvin to get full-time playing time sooner rather than later. And while his underlying power numbers are down, they're not down that much. Either way I'm betting on the young guy with power potential over the old retreads as far as playing time, and once Colvin starts getting his regular at-bats, watch out. He can hit it out of any park.



3. Anibal Sanchez strikes out 200.


Honestly, I'm looking good on this one if we just left it at strikeouts. He's currently on pace for 185 strikeouts and, if he can go longer in games (six innings pitched in just two of five games so far), he'll get there. But I bring him up because strikeouts or no, you don't want a guy with a 4.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, and all of my bold predictions were more about steering you in one direction or another for a specific player than it was about actually hitting the target number. So is Sanchez going to be good or not? Well, he needs to limit the walks and home runs but he's striking out better than eight batters per nine innings (which would be a career high) and he's a slow starter. The last three seasons, his April ERA is 4.16, then he warms up with the weather: May, 3.52; June, 3.71; July, 3.86; August, 3.39; September, 5.20. Much better days are ahead, especially with that strikeout rate. And then on Aug. 31, you drop him like it's hot.


4. Ted Lilly has an ERA under 3.00 and 200 strikeouts.


I know. I know. I know, OK? I know. If you wanted to drop him after Wednesday's start, I'd understand. Totally. But given Lilly's track record and home stadium, I'm staying the course. Heading into that start, his ERA was 4.45 but his FIP (fielding-independent ERA) was 3.30, according to Fangraphs.com, and not surprisingly he also surrendered a very high BABIP to opposing hitters (.349, career .273). His 25-to-8 strikeout-to-walk rate in 38 innings gives me hope as well. I'm concerned about the low K/9 (currently under six, which would be lowest in his career) but he started slow last year, too (4.91 ERA in March/April) ...


5. The under on 50 home runs for the trio of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.


This prediction is all about Howard, as Utley remains a question mark and Rollins is not expected to have significant power this year. Well, for as hot as Howard started out this year, he's currently on pace for just 34 home runs, which would be his second-worst total for a full season. It's all a small sample size, of course, but his underlying numbers all look like last year (which was a disappointment by his standards) and not like, say, 2009. Although he's currently hitting .283, that average would stand as a five-year high for him, so what you really need is the power, and so far this year, it's not quite where you want it to be.


6. Fourteen wins, 175 strikeouts and an ERA under 4.00 for James McDonald.
Off to a poor start, but remember he was banged up during spring training and missed some time. The last two starts have looked like the McDonald I expected coming into the year: 12 innings, only two earned runs, eight strikeouts to five walks and went 2-0. He also stopped using the sinker he'd been (ineffectively) playing with earlier in the year. Wish the walks were a little lower, but as he continues to round into shape, he'll be an asset in NL-only leagues and a good matchup start in mix leagues.


7. Erik Bedard gets 15 wins and 175 strikeouts.


Same thing as McDonald here, as after being injured (for much longer than McDonald, of course) it's taken a while for him to round into form. I'm hanging my hat on two things regarding Bedard: his two most recent starts -- 14 innings, three earned runs and six strikeouts to just two walks -- and his strikeout-to-walk rate -- currently 23 to 13 -- is improving. I love the home park, of course, and assuming Bedard gets his K/9 rate to its career average of 8.6, I've got a shot at getting this one right. That he has now gone back-to-back seven-inning starts for the first time since 2008 is encouraging, as is the fact that, as he told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, he's throwing his curve for strikes. He's a decent spot starter right now with potential for more.


8. Will Venable is the year's Drew Stubbs, going 20/30.


A speed guy with a career .326 BABIP; his is currently at .265. Hitting just .191 so far and yet ... he's on pace for 52 steals. And, uh, no home runs. I have to believe the power will come: he had 25 in 685 at-bats in 2009 and 2010 combined. But even if it doesn't, the average will come up and the speed makes him valuable.

 

[HacheMan]

Astros, Dodgers, Cards bullpen turmoil

Tristan H. Cockcroft


Make some room, Ryan Franklin and Matt Thornton, you've got a new partner atop the blown-saves leaderboard (4): Brandon Lyon.

Lyon, a surprisingly effective closer for the Houston Astros the final two months of last season, converting 19 of 20 save chances with a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, is off to a miserable start to 2011, blowing as many saves (4) as he has converted (4), while posting a 7.15 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. What's worse, he blew his fourth save in spectacular fashion on Wednesday; he entered a 2-0 game in which the Astros as a team had allowed only one hit total through eight innings, and promptly surrendered three runs without recording an out, allowing one walk, three singles and a game-winning double to Jay Bruce.


That gives Lyon two particularly ugly blown saves -- the other coming on Opening Day (⅓ IP, 6 H, 3 ER) -- and in the past five games (out of 12) he has surrendered at least one run, and in the past seven he has allowed multiple hits. Opponents are batting .389 against him and left-handers .563, and his line-drive rate is a bloated 25.0 percent. Lyon isn't fooling anyone, and he has blown three consecutive save chances while allowing six runs on 10 hits in five innings in his past five outings.


The Astros said Thursday that Lyon will be sidelined with shoulder issues, and manager Brad Mills installed Mark Melancon as the closer in his place. Melancon is currently owned in 1.0 percent of ESPN leagues, but obviously that number will be zooming way up after this news.


Melancon has thrived in a setup role this season, registering a 1.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and three holds in 18 games. A former top prospect with the New York Yankees -- he came over in last summer's Lance Berkman trade -- Melancon was once considered that team's best in-house option to eventually succeed Mariano Rivera, and over the years he has shown plenty of improvement with his curveball and changeup. Melancon's curveball is a true strikeout pitch; his 48 percent miss rate ranks third in the majors (among pitchers who have thrown one 50-plus times). His changeup, meanwhile, brilliantly neutralizes left-handers, who have merely .192/.297/.269 rates against it during his brief major league career.


If you look at some of the other closer switches around baseball in 2011, it seems the hot hand and the younger option has been the popular choice in other instances, even ahead of what might seem the more "experienced" choice: Sergio Santos with the Chicago White Sox and Jordan Walden with the Los Angeles Angels, to name two.


If you're wondering about Wilton Lopez, the Astros' most effective setup man in 2010 (2.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14 holds and a sparkling 10.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 68 games last season), he spent nearly three weeks on the disabled list with irritation in the ulnar nerve in his elbow before being activated Monday. Mills told the team's official website that he'll work Lopez back in slowly, so he's not in the running for the time being.



TOP 75 RELIEF PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 75 relief pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mariano Rivera, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Wilson, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Heath Bell, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Marmol, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Huston Street, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Neftali Feliz, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Perez, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joakim Soria, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Valverde, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Papelbon, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Leo Nunez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Craig Kimbrel, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Rodriguez, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">J.J. Putz, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joel Hanrahan, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Cordero, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Drew Storen, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jordan Walden, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Farnsworth, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Capps, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andrew Bailey, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Axford, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon League, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sergio Santos, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Gregg, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Frank Francisco, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Madson, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonny Venters, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Rauch, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Fuentes, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vicente Padilla, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Lyon, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Koji Uehara, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Broxton, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Eduardo Sanchez, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Adams, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aroldis Chapman, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mitchell Boggs, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Melancon, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Aardsma, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joe Nathan, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Fernando Rodney, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brad Lidge, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hong-Chih Kuo, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tyler Clippard, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Luke Gregerson, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Fernando Salas, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Crow, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Sale, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joba Chamberlain, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Hernandez, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Sanches, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sean Burnett, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Thornton, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wilton Lopez, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Darren Oliver, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sean Marshall, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clay Hensley, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Lindstrom, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joel Peralta, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Contreras, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daniel Bard, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rafael Soriano, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rafael Betancourt, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Antonio Bastardo, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ernesto Frieri, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Belisle, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Trever Miller, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joaquin Benoit, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vinnie Pestano, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sergio Romo, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kameron Loe, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Guillermo Mota, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edward Mujica, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kerry Wood, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Jonathan Broxton shut down



Following up on last week's "Relief Efforts," the Los Angeles Dodgers stripped Jonathan Broxton of his closer's role on Wednesday after he admitted to having been experiencing discomfort in his right elbow. He was sent for an MRI exam, and pending the results, might be a candidate for the disabled list.


Such a report provides an obvious explanation for Broxton's diminished velocity, not to mention poor command, and it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him DL-bound within a matter of hours. Certainly, he's probably out as closer for more than a few days; this should be a matter of weeks.


Vicente Padilla, owned in only 15.2 percent of ESPN leagues, instantly becomes the favorite for saves. Hong-Chih Kuo did toss a scoreless inning of relief on Wednesday, but it was in the seventh inning; Padilla threw a shutout frame of his own, but it was in the ninth. Before that, Kuo struggled during his rehabilitation stint, and last week's "Relief Efforts" discussed his checkered injury history. Kenley Jansen, meanwhile, has been demoted to Double-A and is out of the mix.


The St. Louis Cardinals committee



Could Tony La Russa's bullpen strategy be any more aggravating to fantasy owners than it has been this season? I mentioned this in a recent chat and will repeat it here: He's quickly become fantasy baseball's answer to Mike Shanahan.


Just look at how La Russa has doled out the team's past nine save chances, and how those pitchers fared in them:


April 20: Mitchell Boggs save (1 IP, 1 H, 1 K)
April 22: Boggs save (1⅓ IP, 1 H)
April 24: Boggs save (1 IP, 1 H, 2 K)
April 26: Boggs blown save and loss (⅓ IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER)
April 27: Eduardo Sanchez save (1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 K) -- a "Dirty Fuentes" save
April 28: Fernando Salas save (1⅓ IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K) -- though in this case he was held over into the ninth after the Cardinals stretched their lead to four runs
April 29: Trever Miller save (one out recorded) -- an extra-innings win in which both Boggs and Sanchez had previously pitched
April 30: Salas save (1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K)
May 3: Sanchez save (1 IP, 1 BB, 1 K)


Surprisingly enough, during that time span the Cardinals actually gained three games in the National League Central standings, and in fact claimed the division lead by 1½ games. And that saves game log doesn't even include Wednesday's loss to the Florida Marlins, during which Sanchez allowed two walks and a home run in the ninth inning to suffer the loss.


The Cardinals' post-Ryan Franklin bullpen was covered two weeks ago in "Relief Efforts," and the most prominent changes in stance since then is that Sanchez, hailed the "deep sleeper" of the bunch, is now every bit as viable an option as Boggs, while Miguel Batista appears to be a total non-factor in what's an obvious committee. Sanchez's stuff certainly looks closer-worthy: He has a 15.09 K's-per-nine ratio and 16.6 percent swing-and-miss rate in nine innings. Drawing back to the previous point about more teams going with the "hot hand"/most deserving candidate statistically, Sanchez is probably the smartest choice of the bunch.


But would La Russa really give a full-time closer's job to a 22-year-old with all of nine games' big league experience? That is the risk you take with Sanchez.


History says it'd be smart of La Russa to eventually pick one closer and stick with him. Boggs is the Cardinals' current saves leader with three, or a pace of 16 for the season, and no other Cardinals reliever is on pace for more than 11. In a true committee arrangement -- Boggs, Miller, Sanchez and Salas four of the candidates, plus perhaps the occasional Jason Motte or Miguel Batista appearance -- there's a realistic chance no Cardinals reliever will save even 10 games. (In that event, not one would help in the category in anything but deep NL-only leagues.)


According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last team to fail to have a single reliever reach double digits in saves was the 2005 Detroit Tigers, who won just 71 games and tried six different people in the job. Only three teams, meanwhile, did it and still reached the postseason: The 1987 Tigers, 1982 California Angels and 1973 Baltimore Orioles, and all three of those teams did it during an era when bullpen strategy was different and the weight of the save lesser.


If I'm ranking the relievers for fantasy today -- and I am, to the right -- I'm going Sanchez, Boggs, Salas and Miller. But with the team's saves leader so uncertain, you can see how poorly those four compare to the rest of the league.

 

[HacheMan]

In Steps Hosmer...
Everybody knows by now that the Royals have baseball's most promising farm system, but the big league club entered the 2011 season without much promise at all. The starting rotation looked sketchy, the lineup seemed to lack power bats, and the bullpen appeared to be far from flush with reliable arms.

But here we are on May 6 and the Royals are sporting an impressive 17-14 record, good enough for second place in the American League Central standings.

They have no plans of rolling over or looking for moral victories in the hot start.

On Thursday evening it was announced that top prospect Eric Hosmer will be called up to the major leagues and used as the team's regular first baseman beginning Friday night against the Athletics. Many experts believed that the Royals wouldn't begin promoting their many top prospects until the middle of this summer, or even 2012, but the Kansas City front office has decided to go all in this season.

Hosmer, the third overall pick from the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft, posted a .439 batting average, .525 on-base percentage and .582 slugging percentage over his first 118 plate appearances this year at Triple-A Omaha. He homered three times and tallied 15 RBI in 26 games. The 21-year-old is ready to rake and ready to establish himself as a quality fantasy option at first base, where big-time production is always expected. He needs to be owned in mixed leagues.

Let's get to some other news from around the baseball world...

* Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman continued his stunning hot streak on Thursday afternoon against the Marlins, driving in four runs and homering in a 6-3 victory. The 35-year-old now has a whopping 10 home runs and 32 RBI through 29 games and can boast a loaded .392/.462/.775 batting line. Concerns remain about his ability to keep his legs healthy all season while making regular starts in right field, but he's been moving fairly well to this point and has already matched his total WAR from 2010.

* White Sox starter Jake Peavy allowed five runs Thursday in a seven-inning rehab start at Triple-A Charlotte, but it sounds like he's going to be cleared to make his 2011 regular season debut next week anyway. Those five runs were all tacked on in the third inning of Peavy's minor league outing and he was absolutely flawless in the other frames. It's hard to guess how he might fare in his first couple of starts in the big leagues after such a long absence from the high level of competition, but he should be on fantasy rosters just in case his old ace-like form suddenly returns.

* Good news has finally arrived for patient Chase Utley owners. According to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly, the second baseman will head to Clearwater, Florida on Friday to begin playing in extended spring training games. If all goes well, he should advance to the Florida State League within a week. Then the majors will be in his sights. Utley is aiming to return to the Philadelphia starting lineup by the end of this month and is right on track to this point.

National League Quick Hits: The Astros placed Brandon Lyon on the disabled list with a partially torn rotator cuff and will use Mark Melancon in the ninth inning for the time being … Nyjer Morgan broke a finger Thursday while trying to bunt and could miss up to a month ... Albert Pujols went 3-for-3 with a walk Thursday against the Marlins … An MRI taken Thursday on Jonathan Broxton's injured elbow revealed bruising and a bone spur … Homer Bailey allowed one run over six innings and struck out seven Thursday in his 2011 debut … Mets outfielder Angel Pagan went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts Thursday in a rehab game at Single-A Port St. Lucie … Stephen Drew returned from his mild groin injury Thursday night … Russ Adams has retired from baseball … The Mets signed reliever Brian Sweeney to a minor league contract … Josh Collmenter is expected to take the vacant spot in the Diamondbacks' starting rotation … Cubs starter Doug Davis threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings Thursday in a minor league start at Single-A Daytona … Rick Ankiel remains day-to-day with a jammed right wrist … Eduardo Sanchez earned his third save of the season Thursday for the Cardinals … Giants manager Bruce Bochy said Thursday that Jonathan Sanchez is having focus issues … Carlos Lee was held out Thursday with bruised ribs … Freddy Sanchez is day-to-day with a sore right thumb.

American League Quick Hits: The Rangers are hoping that Nelson Cruz will be ready to return from his minor quad injury on Saturday … Eric Chavez has been placed on the disabled list with a broken little toe … Orioles shortstop prospect Manny Machado was lifted early from a game at Single-A Delmarva on Thursday because of a knee injury … Jose Bautista is expected to return to the Blue Jays' starting lineup on Sunday … The Yankees are likely to recall infielder Ramiro Pena before Friday's game … Melky Cabrera drove in four runs Thursday in Kansas City's defeat of Oakland … Bobby Jenks underwent an MRI Thursday on his right biceps that showed no structural damage … The Royals transferred catcher Jason Kendall to the 60-day disabled list … Brett Anderson lasted nine innings Thursday against the Indians but was left with a no-decision … Chone Figgins is day-to-day with a flu-like illness … The Red Sox will recall Alfredo Aceves before Friday's game to serve as a middle reliever … Rene Rivera has been added to the Twins' 25-man roster and will act as Drew Butera's backup … The Rays are likely to place Jeff Niemann on the disabled list within the next few days with a back strain … Eduardo Nunez made two errors Thursday while filling in at shortstop for Derek Jeter … The Red Sox have pushed Daisuke Matsuzaka's next start to Sunday because he made a relief appearance Wednesday night.

 

[HacheMan]

AL Top Prospect Time?
It is common practice for teams to leave their top prospects in the minors for the first one/two months of the season to delay service time, even if that prospect is major league ready. This means that potential contributors with considerable upside for the better part of the season and playoffs are likely still available in your league. It's the first week of May, so it's time to start thinking about getting an early jump on players even if they are still in the minors. Here are four American League prospects that may not be on your waiver wire for long.

OF Ben Revere, Twins
Revere was recalled Wednesday to replace the injured Jason Repko on the active roster, and there's a good chance he'll keep a starting job even when Delmon Young gets activated. Over the last three seasons in the minors Revere has swiped at least 36 bags, and he has a knack for getting on base (career .386 OBP). He's not going to help your team in the power department, but his speed and ability to hit for average (career .326 BA) make him a promising fantasy option. Consider Revere a must add in AL-only leagues.

Add in all AL-only leagues

1B Eric Hosmer, Royals
So much for timing. This piece was supposed to recommend adding Hosmer even though he was still in the minors, but the Royals beat me to the punch, calling up the top prospect for Friday's game. Hosmer - Baseball America's #8 prospect pre-2011 - absolutely tore the cover off the ball at AAA to start this season, slashing .430/.518/.581) in 93 PA with 3 HR and 3 SB. He won't be able to sustain those numbers at the major league level, but it's not unreasonable to think he could go .300/.360/.475 with 15-20 HR and 5-10 SB for the rest of the season.
That cat is already likely out of the bag, but if Hosmer is still available in your AL-only or deep mixed league, he's a must add.

Add in Mixed Leagues

2B Dustin Ackley, Mariners
Ackley was the #2 overall pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft and began his minor league career at AA, hitting .267/.368/.407. His 2011 is off to a rough start at AAA, as he's hitting .214/.343/.330 over his first 112 AB. Current Mariners' second baseman Jack Wilson is hitting just .239/.278/.269 to start the season, so a struggling Ackley would still be a major offensive upgrade over Seattle's present situation. While Ackley still needs some more seasoning at second base, he should be up in late May/early June. A .275/.345/.420 line with 10 HR and 10 SB is a more than reasonable prediction for the remainder of the season, which would make him a solid middle infield option in AL-only leagues. If you have a free bench spot in a deep AL-only league, add Ackley now and reap the benefits when he gets called up.

Add in deep AL-only leagues

3B Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
Chisenhall was ranked by Baseball America as the #2 third baseman prospect and #25 overall pre-2011. He's had a great start to the season at AAA, hitting .277/.378/.426 with 2 HR over 94 AB. The power numbers should rise and it wouldn't be crazy to think he could slug 10-15 HR post-June while sustaining a .275 average. Current Indians' third baseman Jack Hannahan is hitting .274/.351/.464 over 84 AB to start the season. It won't last, as Hannahan was a .224/.311/.347 hitter over 856 AB prior to 2011. If the Indians want to stay in the playoff race, they would be smart to call up Chisenhall as soon as possible. He should be in the majors before early June and is worth adding now before someone else grabs him.

Add in deep AL-only leagues

Other AL prospects to keep in mind: 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals…SP John Lamb, Royals…SP Mike Montgomery, Royals…C Jesus Montero, Yankees…SP Manny Banuelos, Yankees…3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays…OF Desmond Jennings, Rays…SP Kyle Gibson, Twins

 

[HacheMan]

Launching Liriano

Francisco Liriano's no-hitter this past week didn't bear many traits of a flat-out dominating performance. The lefty issued six walks while notching only two strikeouts, and managed to deliver barely over half his offerings in the strike zone. Still, for a starter whose early problems appear to be mostly mental, the confidence gained from such a momentous achievement could prove vital in getting things turned around.

After racking up over 200 strikeouts last year, Liriano flew off the board in fantasy drafts this spring, and to say he's disappointed his owners over the first month of this season would be an understatement. His performance had been so abysmal that there were indications he was fighting for his spot in the rotation on Tuesday night. Fantasy owners and Twins fans are now hoping that the southpaw can use the no-no as a launching point to jump-start his 2011 season. Liriano figures to get his chance in the upcoming week, where he appears among the AL two-start pitcher crop with tough match-ups against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. (Ron Gardenhire has discussed the possibility of pushing Liriano's next start back to Tuesday due to a high pitch count in the no-hitter but for now he remains scheduled for Monday and Sunday. Check back here for updates.)

On the season, Liriano has more walks than strikeouts, and until he starts showing meaningful improvement with his command he'll remain a relatively risky play. His ability to control a game remains intact, though, and that was on display against the White Sox.

Going Twice...



American League

Strong Plays
C.J. Wilson: OAK (Cahill), LAA (Santana)
Michael Pineda: @BAL (Arrieta), @CLE (Tomlin)
Ervin Santana: CWS (Jackson), @TEX (Wilson)
Max Scherzer: @TOR (Morrow), KC (Davies)
Jon Lester: MIN (Liriano), @NYY (Garcia)

Decent Plays
Francisco Liriano: @BOS (Lester), TOR (Morrow)
Brandon Morrow: DET (Scherzer), @MIN (Liriano)
Trevor Cahill: @TEX (Wilson), CWS (Jackson)
Freddy Garcia: KC (Davies), BOS (Lester)
Edwin Jackson: @LAA (Santana), @OAK (Cahill)
Josh Tomlin: TB, SEA (Pineda)
Jake Arrieta: SEA (Pineda), @TB

At Your Own Risk
Kyle Davies: @NYY (Garcia), @DET (Scherzer)

National League

Strong Plays
Tim Lincecum: ARI (Kennedy), @CHC (Dempster)
Chris Carpenter: @CHC (Dempster), @CIN (Wood)
Zack Greinke: SD (Latos), PIT (Correia)
Chad Billingsley: @PIT (Karstens), ARI (Saunders)
Tim Hudson: WAS (Marquis), PHI (Blanton)

Decent Plays
Jason Marquis: @ATL (Hudson), FLA (Vazquez)
Mat Latos: @MIL (Greinke), @COL (Hammel)
Kevin Correia: LAD (Lilly), @MIL (Greinke)
Jeff Karstens: LAD (Billingsley), @MIL (Gallardo)
Joe Blanton: @FLA (Vazquez), @ATL (Hudson)
Ted Lilly: @PIT (Correia), ARI (Kennedy)
Jason Hammel: NYM (Pelfrey), SD (Latos)
Travis Wood: @HOU (Rodriguez), STL (Carpenter)
Jhoulys Chacin: NYM (Capuano), SD (Harang)
Ian Kennedy: @SF (Lincecum), @LAD (Lilly)

At Your Own Risk
Chris Capuano: @COL (Chacin), @HOU (Rodriguez)
Aneury Rodriguez: CIN (Wood), NYM (Capuano)
Javier Vazquez: PHI (Blanton), @WAS (Marquis)
Ryan Dempster: STL (Carpenter), SF (Lincecum)


Streamer City



The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 5/11: Scott Baker vs. DET
Baker has really turned it on lately but remains unowned in an awful lot of leagues. When he's pitching at Target Field, he's a must-play.

Thursday, 5/12: Alex White vs. TB
The heralded rookie impressed in his first MLB start. Give him a look at home against the Rays.

Thursday, 5/12: Ivan Nova vs. KC
Nova's nothing too special, but he should be able to handle the Royals and figures to get plenty of run support against Sean O'Sullivan in Yankee Stadium.

National League

Tuesday, 5/10: Homer Bailey @ HOU
The young righty looked very sharp in his return from the disabled list this past week. He definitely merits a nod against the lowly Astros.

Friday, 5/13: Bud Norris vs. NYM
As long as Norris keeps throwing like a stud and remains available in a huge chunk of fantasy leagues, I'm going to keep recommending him.

<!--RW-->


Total Games



American League

6: BAL, BOS, CWS, CLE, DET, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR

National League

6: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, MIL, NYM, PHI, SF, STL, SD, WAS
7: LAD, PIT


Lefty/Righty Breakdown



American League

BAL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
BOS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CWS: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
CLE: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
DET: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
KC: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
LAA: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIN: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
NYY: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
OAK: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
SEA: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TB: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
TEX: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TOR: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
ATL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CIN: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
COL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
FLA: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
HOU: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAD: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
NYM: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
PHI: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
PIT: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SD: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SF: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
STL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
WAS: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP


The Infirmary



You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page, but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:

Bobby Jenks: Out until late May
Ty Wigginton: Out until mid-May
Brandon Lyon: Out until June
Jonathan Broxton: Out until late May
Jim Thome: Out until late May
Delmon Young: Out until mid-May
Nyjer Morgan: Out until late May
Joe Blanton: Returning this week
Orlando Hudson: Out until late May
Jeff Niemann: Out indefinitely

 

[HacheMan]

Choo is Nothing to Sneeze At
The Indians are hot and Choo is cold, but the opposite is likely to be true for the rest of the year. A look at those stories and more in this week's Week That Was.


Shin-Soo Choo: Shin-Soo Choo had an ugly night last night going 0-5. So far this year, the Indians have been red hot and Choo has, well, been just not. Thus far, arguably the Indians' best player is hitting a paltry .217 with 4 HR, though he does have 6 SB. Choo has hit over .300 for three straight years and has been 20-20 each of the last two. The future for 2011 seems clear – Choo will turn it around and hit and the Indians will return to form and fall out of the race. If there is a Choo owner in your league who is getting antsy push him or her closer to the edge and grab the talented outfielder. There is simply no reason to believe that Choo has lost anything at the age of 28.


Mark Teahan: Ozzie Guillen is apparently making noises about giving Mark Teahen more time at 3B. Of course, Ozzie says a lot of things. However, this one makes sense. Incumbent Brent Morel is well under the Mendoza line in BOTH batting average and OBP. The weak average is a bit of a surprise, but given Morel's lack of power in the high minors, the lack of production is not. As to Teahan, he has never lived up to his potential but has always been a decent major league hitter. It would not surprise me to see Teahan hit 15 HR in semi-regular duty and put up some nice counting numbers once the pale hose bats awaken. Buy if you are in a deep league.


Eric Hosmer: In the first of what will prove to be many promotions from the rich Royal farm, Eric Hosmer arrived and went 0-2 with a pair of walks Friday. There may be some growing pains but Hosmer is in the show to play, not to watch and get splinters. Pencil him in the lineup everyday and count on at least what Ike Davis produced a year ago in a similar situation – 70-19-70. Yeah Hosmer was too hot to handle in AAA in April but he is 21 and that was the hitter friendly PCL. He may become a superstar but counting on more than the stats listed above will be a mistake. Bid accordingly.


Mariano Rivera: Mariano Rivera notched his 12th save Friday, tossing a perfect frame while striking out a pair. Yeah, I know what you are thinking – why is this news? Why does this guy focus on the Yankees? Well, it isn't really news as Mo has been the best around for so long. And, yes, sometimes I can be a homer. However, there is a lesson here. Last month, Mo blew two saves in a row. Whispers about father time catching up to Mo were heard. The Lesson? Do not overreact to small samples, especially for proven commodities. If Mark Melancon had blown two straight saves that could mean the league caught up to him or that he will lose hold of the closer job. Not Mo. Consider the track record, health, etc. together with small trends before drawing conclusions. Mini lecture is now over. I am sure you get the point.



Ricky Nolasco: Ricky Nolasco was lights out yesterday, blowing away eleven Nats. He got stuck with a no-decision but that does not take away from the dominance he showed. Thus far, the Marlin hurler has a 38/7 K/BB ratio with a 3.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. All signs pointed to a career year for Ricky. So far, he has not disappointed. What were those signs you ask? Good question. Three years of K/BB ratios ranging from a super 4.5/1 to a spectacular number close to 6/1, a three year avg WHIP of 1.20 and of course, three years of relative health. Ricky was undervalued because of his bad luck 4.50 and 5.00 ranger ERAs. Those that looked beyond ERA to the more revealing stats found the undervalued bargain on the rise all fantasy owners seek.


Randy Wolf: Randy Wolf got tattooed Friday, giving up 6 runs and 7 hits in five innings. Even with the stinker, Wolf has a 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP – very strong numbers. So, ok wait for it. Wait for it. SELL!!!! Do it now!!!! Why do I say that? Another good question posed. Well, strikeouts down, walks, WHIP and ERA up are hardly good signs. Moreover, Wolf had his only really good years recently pitching in pitcher havens like LA. Last year's subpar performance in a hitters' park like Milwaukee was a good sign of not so good things to come in Milwaukee this year. They will come so get off the train before they do.


Kevin Slowey: Minnesota activated Kevin Slowey from the DL and plan to have him work out of the pen for now. His roto value will be determined by whether he gets into the rotation either in Minny or elsewhere. My bet is that he does. First, there could always be injuries. Second, the Twins need a boost and can use Slowey for trade value, and third, he is better than Nick Blackburn. Over the last three years, Slowey has posted a K/BB of just shy of 7/1. That is just a great number. He will never strikeout 200+ and will always give up a few too many taters, but he would be a very welcome addition to any starting staff real or fantasy. Buy if you can.


Vincente Padilla: On the do not overact to newsclips front, ignore the reports about Vicente Padilla becoming a closer while Jonathan Broxton is on the DL. Yeah, Vinny P might grab a few saves but he does not have closer stuff or experience. Look for Kuo to take that job with Brox is on the shelf. Those in keeper leagues will want to speculate on Kenley Jansen. Both Jansen and Kuo make better picks than Padilla. Be smart and get the last laugh.


Nyjer Morgan: From the snake bit pages comes news that Nyjer Morgan is back on the DL, this time with a broken finger (hurt while bunting). Morgan will be out 2-4 weeks. If you can just keep him on DL, do it. The temperamental OF will be a big source of SB in the second half. Carlos Gomez is a bust and Brandon Boggs is just not a threat. If someone in your league is frustrated by Morgan's second stint on the shelf, make an offer. SBs of this type are just hard to find.


Melky Cabrera: Melky Cabrera had another good night Thursday, going 3-4 with a home run and four RBI. Thus far, the Melkman has delivered. He is hitting .285 with 20 runs and 20 RBI in 30 games. Who wouldn't take 90-90 from Melky? Of course, "on pace" means little. The question is whether Melky can keep hitting. I say the answer is yes. I know the Royals want to bring up Lorenzo Cain. However, the truth is that Cabrera got himself into shape, grew up a bit, and is proving that he has the dedication to go with the talent that brought him to the show on the big stage in the Bronx at the tender age of 21. Buy.


And last, but not least, Schultz says: "A poor April always sticks out like Manny Ramirez at a MENSA meeting. If anyone starts out of the gate at a tortoise's pace, the numbers are there for even the most imperceptive purveyor of the sports pages to see. Jorge Posada's .154 batting average looks downright abysmal, even next to Carlos Pena's .169 and his 2 homers. Justin Morneau's sole home run and .207 average only looks good if you set Albert Pujols' surprising .252 average right next to it. Conversely, the hares of April are on paces that are simply unsustainable. Alfonso Soriano is unlikely to stay on his pace to hit 61 home runs nor is Matt Kemp likely to steal 60 bases (although the latter is more attainable than the former) and the rabbit with the most hop, Lance Berkman, will unlikely finish with the 60 HR, 179 RBI .390 line on which he's currently apace.

So, what's the point of this little diatribe that doesn't include a mention of the Cleveland Indians having the best record in baseball? There's the old adage, in fact it might be a scientific principle, that water finds its own level. With full awareness that this little tidbit could be said to apply to the Tribe (oops, Glenn, I preempted your retort), it's a nice maxim to keep in mind when looking for bargains. While Pena may once again fight his battle with the dreaded Mendoza Line, if he gets there, it's an improvement over where he is now and requires him hitting about .250 along the way. Given that he's got some power, that's livable. Someone like Omar Infante, a solid though admittedly unproven hitter, currently hitting .244 with no home runs is fairly certain to have an uptick in the near future. Since someone else has lived with the adrenalin rush of the downward spiral, get on board for the roller coaster ride back up.

Since I stole your witty reply Glenn, maybe you can answer this: how in the world does someone strike out 16 Braves and lose by 5 runs. One thing to get a hard luck no decision but the ignominy of a 5 run loss?!?

Or maybe you can answer the question, which pundit of this column wrote the following sentence in the first week of the season: "no matter how hard Schultz roots for the Indians, you shouldn't own any Indian hurler not named Chris Perez as the Tribe could easily lose over 100 games." Hint: despite my love of referring to myself in the third person, it wasn't me. I have your serving of crow, just tell me whether you would like it served grilled, fried or roasted.

Just in case my Mom makes her annual "I wonder if Schultz still writes for Rotoworld" visit to the column this week. Happy Mother's Day!"


Response: Well, I agree with the Happy Mothers' Day wish to all the moms out there, mine and Mrs. Schultz included. As to the Tribe, hey, they have been great so far. But I wouldn't go printing up pennants just yet. As to the analysis of why April numbers looks so gaudy or so enticing, well Schultz is right (did I really type that?). Roto champions know not to overact to the good, bad or ugly of April (see, Choo, Shin-Soo).

 

[HacheMan]

AL Notes: Homers for Hosmer?
The plan has changed, says Ozzie Guillen.

Expected to head to the bullpen, Philip Humber will instead stay in the White Sox rotation following Jake Peavy's return on Wednesday, Guillen said after watching the right-hander hold the Mariners to two runs over seven innings in a no-decision Friday.

It certainly is the fair way to do it. Humber has been the White Sox's best starter since joining the rotation, amassing a 2.65 ERA in six starts.

However, I think he's pretty clearly the worst bet of the group going forward. Humber doesn't throw very hard, he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts and he doesn't many grounders. He's always had a very good curveball and he's made some progress with his changeup, but if left in the rotation, I wouldn't expect an ERA much south of 5.00 over the rest of the season.

The White Sox have two choices if they decide to keep starting Humber; they can go to a six-man rotation or they could send Edwin Jackson to the bullpen. A couple weeks in the pen for Jackson might not be such a bad thing, but I suspect that if they do make the switch, it wouldn't last any longer than that.

American League Notes

- Eric Hosmer is the game's best first-base prospect and the Royals did the right thing in calling him up following his fantastic start at Triple-A Omaha (.439/.525/.582 in 98 AB), but I doubt the 21-year-old will turn out to be a worthy mixed-league corner guy this year. 25-homer power is on the way, but since it's not there yet, I don't expect him to be an asset in runs scored and RBI while hitting in the bottom half of the Kansas City lineup. I'm expecting something like .270-.280 with 10 homers and 60 RBI. He might surprise with a half-dozen steals.

- Unfortunately for Kila Ka'aihue, that was probably the one good chance he's ever going to get presented to him. He hit .195/.295/.317 and struck out 26 times in 82 at-bats before being sent down to make room for Hosmer. The Royals shouldn't have any further need for him, and even if Hosmer disappoints, there's a good chance they'd give Clint Robinson a try before turning back to Ka'aihue. He could end up in Japan next year.

- I don't know what's gotten into Mike Aviles. Yeah, he's a perfectly solid hitter, but with 14 extra-base hits in 93 at-bats, he's already halfway to last year's total of 27 in 424 at-bats. I say sell high. He may bat .300, but he's not likely to remain a big asset in homers and steals going forward.

- With Jeff Niemann (back) expected to miss at least three weeks, Andy Sonnanstine is going to get a chance to step into Tampa Bay's rotation. Primarily a mopup man since the beginning of 2010, Sonnanstine has a 2.19 ERA in 12 1/3 innings out of the pen this season. He hasn't gotten many strikeouts while mostly using his cutter in relief work, and he's going to have to throw more fastballs and changes to mix it up as a starter. I'm not expecting much, but since the Rays are hot and he will have a strong defense behind him, he's going to be worth trying in AL-only leagues.

- Sam Fuld's stint as one of the Rays' starting outfielders could be winding down. Eight 0-fors in his last 10 games have dropped his average from .350 to .250, and he's gone the last 11 games without so much as attempting a stolen base. I proposed a Desmond Jennings callup last week, but the Rays instead opted to try Brandon Guyer when they placed Niemann on the DL. Guyer, 25, homered in his debut Friday and then sat Saturday. I don't think he's going to be a long-term regular, but he has some power and speed and he'd likely be a decent fantasy outfielder if given a shot. AL-only leaguers should pick him up. Mixed leaguers holding on to Fuld need to give someone else a try.

- It sounded like Nelson Cruz might make it back from his latest leg injury on Saturday, but the Rangers instead placed him on the 15-day DL with a strained quad. The Rangers will go with a David Murphy-Julio Borbon-Mitch Moreland outfield this week, opening up at-bats at first base for Mike Napoli and Chris Davis. That's good news for Napoli, since the Rangers aren't going to use him at DH anymore after sending down third catcher Taylor Teagarden on Friday. Manager Ron Washington is so scared of potentially having the pitcher's spot come up in a crucial situation that he won't use his only reserve catcher as a DH.

Time will tell whether Cruz will beat Josh Hamilton back from the DL. It looks like Hamilton could return from a broken humerus during the May 23-29 homestand.

- Things were looking up for Derek Holland after Matt Harrison lost his fourth straight start Friday, but he may have cost himself a rotation spot by walking five and allowing four runs in three-plus innings against the Yankees on Saturday. Holland has 35 strikeouts and just four homers allowed in 41 2/3 innings, but his ERA stands at 5.18 anyway. Harrison is at 4.35 despite weaker peripherals. Tommy Hunter (groin) will make his next rehab start Monday and could be activated afterwards if he pitches well. It'll be interesting to see if the Rangers stand by Holland or not.

- Alexi Ogando is questionable to make his start Sunday because of a blister. Given that he'll be facing the Yankees if he does start, mixed leaguers should probably sit him down. Dave Bush would replace him if necessary.

- Jose Bautista (neck) and Aaron Hill (hamstring) are due back in Toronto's lineup on Sunday. And not a moment too soon. Jayson Nix (shin) is still a week away, so the Jays don't have to make any tough decisions yet. Nix was playing well at third base before going down, and Edwin Encarnacion has been struggling defensively in his time at the hot corner. If the Jays want to go back to Nix at third, then David Cooper, who has started off 3-for-21 as the Jays' primary DH, seems likely to return to Triple-A.

- The Blue Jays might also want to bring back Travis Snider in another week or so. He's batting .500 with three doubles and six walks in seven games since being demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas.

- It just took one misstep from Jon Rauch for the Jays to go back to Frank Francisco in the closer's role. Francisco picked up saves Wednesday and Friday, and he'll probably keep closing as long as his arm holds up. Because Francisco has had so many durability issues, Rauch needs to be kept in AL-only leagues.

- The news on Joe Mauer (legs) isn't great, but the Twins could get Delmon Young back from his strained oblique towards the end of this week. That will return Rene Tosoni to the bench.

- The Twins brought up 2007 first-round pick Ben Revere after placing Jason Repko (quad) on the disabled list, but even though he was hot in Triple-A, he's started just one game so far. His stay figures to be a short one.

- The main reason Revere isn't playing is because the Twins opted to move Michael Cuddyer back to the outfield and go with Trevor Plouffe at shortstop and Alexi Casilla at second base for now. Ideally, Plouffe would hit enough to claim a starting job, making Casilla a utilityman once Tsuyoshi Nishioka returns from a broken leg at the end of the month. Plouffe won't hit for average because he strikes out too much, but he doesn't have decent pop for a middle infielder. He could be a $3-$5 player in AL-only leagues. Casilla owners should consider making the switch.

- Obviously it's not going to happen at Francisco Liriano's expense now, but I'd really like to see Kevin Slowey back in the Twins rotation. He threw 66 pitches in relief against the Red Sox on Saturday, so he's stretched out enough to make a start if the Twins want to get him into the mix this week. Perhaps they'll consider if it Nick Blackburn is lit up by Boston on Monday. Blackburn has a 4.41 ERA, but he's given up a few unearned runs, his WHIP stands at 1.56 and he's benefited from an easy schedule.

- I truly believed a bounce-back year was on the way for Nick Markakis after the Orioles finally dismissed Terry Crowley as their hitting coach. Too much flipping the ball the other way, particularly with men on base, had robbed Markakis of his early promise, and I figured a change in philosophy would do him a lot of good. Obviously, it hasn't happened yet, though he is hitting .333 with seven RBI in May after batting just .204 with six RBI in 98 at-bats last month. I want Markakis waiting for his pitch and then trying to drive it into the gap. Instead, he's just taking hacks at everything in the strike zone. As a result, he's not striking out much. However, he's also not walking and he has just four extra-base hits. I still think the talent is there, and I don't suggest dropping him in mixed leagues. However, it's hard to be optimistic about a 20-homer, 100-RBI season as is.

- Baltimore's J.J. Hardy (oblique) is expected to come off the disabled list Tuesday, putting Robert Andino back into a utility role. Mark Reynolds is still struggling, but it's doubtful we'll see Andino at third with much frequency.

- Even though I had him sixth overall and second in the AL, I wonder if I didn't underrate Jacoby Ellsbury as a fantasy outfielder. At .282/.341/.460, he's not really playing much better than expected (I had him projected at .294/.351/.418 for the season), but he's currently on pace for 20 homers, 108 runs scored, 83 RBI and 44 steals. Ironically, that's pretty much what I had Carl Crawford projected at (16 homers, 108 runs scored, 82 RBI and 38 steals).

- Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (elbow) was only slated to make the one rehab start for Double-A Akron, but since he gave up four runs in 3 2/3 innings Friday, it's possible he'll make another. Since he's not going to be a great bet even if he is activated, AL-only leaguers will probably want to keep him reserved.

- It was depressing seeing Eric Chavez lost to a broken toe after his nice start in a reserve role. The light-hitting Ramiro Pena was recalled to replace him on the Yankees roster and shouldn't have any value while sharing reserve duties with Eduardo Nunez. Given Nunez's defensive struggles, the Yankees will probably stick with Pena or go outside of the organization for a utilityman after Chavez returns.

- Dallas Braden's setback with his shoulder will keep Tyson Ross in the Oakland rotation for the foreseeable future. Ross is a smart play in AL-only leagues, even though wins figure to be a problem.

- Andrew Bailey's return from a forearm strain is finally getting close. He's likely to begin a rehab assignment this week. If he's effective in the minors, the A's won't waste much time in putting him back into the closer's role. Brian Fuentes has been less than stellar lately, and there's the chance that Grant Balfour could pick up another save or two before Bailey is activated.

- Three straight two-hit games at the beginning of the month have given Andy LaRoche a chance to start over Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base, though he's followed it up by going just 2-for-18 since. It seems like a given that the A's will be interested if any third base help becomes available, but with so many third basemen getting hurt, it's going to be hard to come by. Ideally, LaRoche would start collecting some more singles and doubles and win the job outright. If it doesn't happen, then the injured Adam Rosales (foot) will probably get a look in June. Triple-A Sacramento's Adrian Cardenas is another option, but he'd likely be a liability with the glove.

- David Aardsma developed an arm problem just as he was finishing his rehab from hip surgery, delaying his return. Fortunately, Brandon League has been perfect in the closer's role for Seattle so far. It looks like he'll keep earning saves for at least the rest of May.

- Franklin Gutierrez (viral infection) is just 2-for-16 so far on his rehab assignment, so he could use a big weekend to ensure that he'll be activated from the disabled list on Tuesday. If he continues to struggle, the Mariners will probably keep him on the farm for an additional three days. Keep him reserved.

- When Gutierrez is activated, the Mariners will have to decide whether to keep Michael Saunders or Ryan Langerhans. Langerhans, who hit three homers early last month, is down to .173/.317/.346 for the season, but Saunders has been even worse, coming in at .184/.242/.276 so far. The decision could hinge on how much the Mariners want to play Milton Bradley. Saunders needs at-bats, so if the Mariners want to stick with Bradley in left field and Jack Cust at DH, the smart move would be to send him back to Triple-A and go with Langerhans as their fourth outfielder. I'm guessing that's what they'll do. However, they might decide there are enough at-bats available to make it worth keeping Saunders up.

- Austin Jackson is still striking out a ton, but he is off to a .333 start in 24 at-bats this month. If he weren't so strong defensively, the Tigers likely would have farmed him out by now. However, the downgrade to Casper Wells and Andy Dirks in center gives them reason for extra patience.

- The Tigers did make my preferred switch last week, going from Will Rhymes to Scott Sizemore at second base. Sizemore is off to a nice start, so it looks like Ryan Raburn will get all of his playing time in the outfield for now. That's bad news for him and Brennan Boesch, since the Tigers can only play both at the same time a couple of times per week. Neither he nor Boesch rates as a very good play in mixed leagues at the moment. Sizemore has the potential to be a useful mixed-league second baseman. Depending on what happens with Carlos Guillen, Sizemore could be good for 10-12 homers and 10-12 steals the rest of the way.

 

[HacheMan]

Greinke, Liriano get two starts

Tristan H. Cockcroft

On tap: It's a week of "do-you-or-don't-you" decisions with starting pitchers, as the Milwaukee Brewers' Zack Greinke, fresh off the disabled list, and Minnesota Twins' Francisco Liriano, fresh off what has been described as the ugliest no-hitter in baseball history (he tied for the lowest game score in any no-hitter since 1919), each makes two starts during Week 6. It's quite a contrast in matchups for the two; Greinke pitches twice at home against mediocre offenses, once each versus the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates, while Liriano travels to Boston's Fenway Park before returning home to face the power-laden Toronto Blue Jays lineup. Should you start either one? Read on to find out …

Jake Peavy (rotator cuff tendinitis) is expected to rejoin the Chicago White Sox's rotation, tentatively starting Wednesday's game at the Los Angeles Angels (he could also pitch Friday at the Oakland Athletics). I routinely caution fantasy owners to take a wait-and-see approach with starting pitchers fresh off the DL and Peavy is no different; he had a 5.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP during a five-start rehabilitation assignment, one that included setbacks. Still, it's a promising sign that he's ready for activation, and his performance will bear watching for future weeks.


Division rivalries are the focus of weekend matchups, as the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves battle in Atlanta, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees tangle in New York, the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds clash in Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers square off in Texas, all of those Friday-Sunday series. Six of the top 11 starting pitchers on our Player Rater will work during those series, led by Nos. 1 and 3 starters Jered Weaver and Dan Haren of the Angels. Not that their owners should sit either of them, but it'll be a bit of a challenge for each: Weaver has won two of 11 career starts with a 3.93 ERA at Texas' Rangers Ballpark, while Haren's career ERA there is 4.97 in five starts.


Reminder: For those of you in weekly-transactions leagues, first pitch of Week 6 is 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday. Here are this week's other scheduled first pitches by day: Tuesday 7:05 p.m. ET, Wednesday 1:10 p.m. ET, Thursday 12:05 p.m. ET, Friday 2:20 p.m. ET, Saturday 1:05 p.m. ET, Sunday 1:05 p.m. ET.


Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
Projected starting pitchers | Pitching strategies
Team advantages | Hitting strategies
Weather report | Week 6 pitcher rankings


Projected starting pitchers




The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start twice this week are in gray/beige boxes.


<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="WIDTH: 30px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Team</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Mon
5/9</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Tue
5/10</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Wed
5/11</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Thu
5/12</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Fri
5/13</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Sat
5/14</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 14%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Sun
5/15</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
Arrieta
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
Tillman
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
Britton
(LHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TB
Guthrie
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TB
Bergesen
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TB
Arrieta
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>MIN
Lester
(LHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TOR
Beckett
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TOR
Lackey
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
Matsuzaka
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
Lester
(LHP)
P: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAA
Jackson
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAA
Danks
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAA
Peavy
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@OAK
Humber
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@OAK
Floyd
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@OAK
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TB
Tomlin
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TB
Gomez
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TB
Masterson
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
White
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
Carmona
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
Tomlin
(RHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TOR
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
Porcello
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
Coke
(LHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
Verlander
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
Penny
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
Davies
(RHP)
P: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
Chen
(LHP)
P: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
O'Sullivan
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@DET
Hochevar
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@DET
Francis
(LHP)
P: 1</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@DET
Davies
(RHP)
P: 2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
Santana
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
Pineiro
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
Chatwood
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
Weaver
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
Haren
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
Santana
(RHP)
P: 3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BOS
Liriano
(LHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>DET
Blackburn
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>DET
Baker
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TOR
Duensing
(LHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TOR
Pavano
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TOR
Liriano
(LHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
Garcia
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
Burnett
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
Nova
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
Colon
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
Sabathia
(LHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
Garcia
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
Anderson
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
Gonzalez
(LHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
McCarthy
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
Ross
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BAL
Pineda
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BAL
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BAL
Vargas
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
Fister
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
Pineda
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
Price
(LHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
Shields
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BAL
Davis
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BAL
TBD

P: 1</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BAL
Price
(LHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>OAK
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>OAK
Lewis
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>OAK
Harrison
(LHP)
P: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAA
Holland
(LHP)
P: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAA
Ogando
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAA
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>DET
Morrow
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
Drabek
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
Litsch
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
Romero
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
Reyes
(LHP)
P: 1</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
Morrow
(RHP)
P: 8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@SF
Kennedy
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@SF
Galarraga
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@SF
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAD
Saunders
(LHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAD
TBD

P: 1</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAD
Kennedy
(RHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>WAS
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>WAS
Beachy
(RHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>WAS
Lowe
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
Jurrjens
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 10</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
Zambrano
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
Garza
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
Coleman
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SF
Dempster
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SF
Russell
(LHP)
P: 2</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SF
Zambrano
(RHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
Wood
(LHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
Volquez
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
Cueto
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
Wood
(LHP)
P: 3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
Chacin
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
Hammel
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
DeLaRosa
(LHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
Rogers
(RHP)
P: 2</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
Chacin
(RHP)
P: 8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
Vazquez
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
Johnson
(RHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@WAS
Volstad
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@WAS
Sanchez
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@WAS
Vazquez
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CIN
A.Rdrguez
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CIN
Myers
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CIN
W.Rdrguez
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
Norris
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
Happ
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
A.Rdrguez
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
Lilly
(LHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
Kuroda
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
Garland
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
Kershaw
(LHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
Lilly
(LHP)
P: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
Greinke
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
Marcum
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
Wolf
(LHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PIT
Gallardo
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PIT
Narveson
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PIT
Greinke
(RHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
Capuano
(LHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
Pelfrey
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
Niese
(LHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
Young
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
Dickey
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
Capuano
(LHP)
P: 4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@FLA
Worley
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@FLA
Halladay
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@FLA
Lee
(LHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
Oswalt
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
Worley
(RHP)
P: 8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
Karstens
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
Correia
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
Maholm
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
Morton
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 2</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
Karstens
(RHP)
P: 1</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
Correia
(RHP)
P: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
Carpenter
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
Westbrook
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
Garcia
(LHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CIN
Lohse
(RHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CIN
McClellan
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CIN
Carpenter
(RHP)
P: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
Latos
(RHP)
P: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
Richard
(LHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
Stauffer
(RHP)
P: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
Moseley
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
Harang
(RHP)
P: 1</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
Latos
(RHP)
P: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
Sanchez
(LHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
Cain
(RHP)
P: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
Bumgarner
(LHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
Vogelsong
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
Marquis
(RHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
Lannan
(LHP)
P: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>FLA
Gorzelanny
(LHP)
P: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>FLA
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 3</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>FLA
Marquis
(RHP)
P: 6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.





Tristan's pitching strategies




• Have you begun taking the Cleveland Indians' rotation seriously yet? If not, you should. Amazing as it seems, if you forget about their dreadful first two games to begin the regular season, Indians starters have amassed 22 quality starts in their past 28 tries, have allowed five or more runs in an outing only twice and are 14-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during that time. Their bullpen also has a 3.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, those numbers good for sixth and fifth in baseball, led by the No. 12 relief pitcher in fantasy, Chris Perez. The Indians spend the week at home in Progressive Field, where they're 13-2 with a 3.43 ERA as a team, and they're set to host the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, who both rank in the bottom half in baseball in runs per game (Rays 4.13, 18th; Mariners 3.75, 23rd) and team OPS (Rays .687, 20th; Mariners .644, 28th). Suddenly, hot-starting Josh Tomlin, the Indians' two-start pitcher this week, doesn't look like such a bad choice. Both he and Justin Masterson, who battles the Rays on Thursday, have thrown nothing but quality starts in each of their six appearances so far.


• As with the Indians, don't so casually dismiss the Baltimore Orioles' starters, either, and keep in mind that their closer, Kevin Gregg, has converted five consecutive save opportunities and limited opponents to an .053 batting average in his past six appearances. Wednesday starter Chris Tillman -- the Orioles' No. 5 starter -- might be the lone scary choice, but the other five starters have combined for a 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 10 quality starts in their past 15 tries. Two-start pitcher Jake Arrieta in particular has five consecutive quality starts, two of those against the Yankees, and a 3-0 record, 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in them.


• I don't care that one of their opponents is the rival Phillies, I'm not about to bet against the Braves' pitching staff given a six-game week played entirely at home. Keep in mind the Braves have a team 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at Turner Field since the beginning of last season, and their current five starters have a 3.39 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 215 games (212 starts) combined there, not one of them owning a lifetime ERA at Turner Field higher than 3.92 (that's Derek Lowe's). As is, Braves starters have a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 games at Turner Field versus the Phillies since the beginning of last season; the matchups of Saturday starter Tim Hudson (3-1, 3.38 ERA, 4 GS) and Sunday starter Tommy Hanson (1.65 ERA, 3 GS) shouldn't be remotely feared. Also continue riding Brandon Beachy's hot streak when he battles the Washington Nationals on Wednesday; in addition to a 1.44 ERA and 0.64 WHIP, he has a sparkling 7.00 strikeouts-to-walk ratio in his past four turns.


• As hinted above, Zack Greinke's owners -- at least those in mixed leagues who might have a choice of a worthy alternative -- are in quite a pickle this week, having to evaluate his two fantastic-on-paper matchups against the Padres and Pirates. Those teams rank 29th (3.13) and 24th (3.71) in terms of runs per game, respectively, and 29th (.625) and 26th (.655) in terms of team OPS, so Greinke's second and third starts of 2011 sure look like they'll be easy. But his first turn fresh off a rib injury was a rocky one (4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) and he didn't pitch much better during his rehabilitation stint (4.70 ERA in two Triple-A starts), so there's a clear performance concern here. In Greinke's defense: He whiffed 13 batters compared to two walks during his rehab, then 6 and 1 in his 2011 debut, and generated seven grounders on 12 balls in play during the latter. That Padres matchup might be a 50/50 proposition for a quality start, but it could lead to a stepladder type of performance improvement where his Pirates matchup subsequently winds up a true gem. If you're a risk-taker, go for it; I'm going to. And I'm going to load up my lineup with as many Brewers starters as possible accounting for these matchups except Yovani Gallardo. Heck, he's probably a riskier play than Greinke right now!


• Since we covered Greinke, let's discuss Liriano: Where I'm risking Greinke in my lineup, I prefer not to with Liriano. The numbers tell all: He's 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in two career starts at Fenway Park, and 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four career games (three starts) versus the Blue Jays. Liriano isn't going to be able to get by walking six batters against a lineup like the Red Sox's; they lead the majors in walks (123) and rank third in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.99). AL-only owners might need to keep him in there due to a lack of alternatives, but in mixed leagues, I'd be cautious.


For more insight into Week 6 pitching matchups, see my rankings for the top 75 starting pitchers, as well as every two-start pitcher, at column's end.



Team advantages




The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.


<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="WIDTH: 30px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Team</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Overall
Rating</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Mon
5/9</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Tue
5/10</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Wed
5/11</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Thu
5/12</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Fri
5/13</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Sat
5/14</CENTER></TH><TH style="WIDTH: 11%; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Sun
5/15</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
3 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 3
L: 2
R: 4
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
H: 6
L: 4
R: 6
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TB
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TB
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TB
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
1 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>MIN
H: 6
L: 1
R: 7
S: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TOR
H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TOR
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
H: 6
L: 10
R: 1
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAA
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAA
H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAA
H: 8
L: 6
R: 9
S: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@OAK
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@OAK
H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@OAK
H: 2
L: 5
R: 1
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 4
L: 3
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TB
H: 2
L: 1
R: 4
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TB
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TB
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
H: 4
L: 3
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SEA
H: 3
L: 5
R: 2
S: 3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 9
L: 10
R: 7
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TOR
H: 4
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
H: 10
L: 8
R: 10
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
H: 9
L: 10
R: 8
S: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@NYY
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@DET
H: 3
L: 3
R: 2
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@DET
H: 7
L: 6
R: 9
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@DET
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
H: 10
L: 4
R: 10
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
5 home
4 vs. L
2 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BOS
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>DET
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>DET
H: 5
L: 1
R: 8
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TOR
H: 5
L: 9
R: 3
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TOR
H: 10
L: 7
R: 10
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>TOR
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
H: 9
L: 10
R: 8
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>KC
H: 7
L: 4
R: 10
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 10</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@TEX
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CHW
H: 6
L: 8
R: 6
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 7
L: 7
R: 6
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BAL
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BAL
H: 9
L: 7
R: 10
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@BAL
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
H: 5
L: 7
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 7
L: 10
R: 4
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
H: 9
L: 9
R: 8
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CLE
H: 4
L: 9
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BAL
H: 6
L: 9
R: 3
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BAL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BAL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>OAK
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>OAK
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>OAK
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAA
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAA
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 5
L: 3
R: 6
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>DET
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>BOS
H: 6
L: 6
R: 7
S: 10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
H: 3
L: 1
R: 5
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIN
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@SF
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@SF
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@SF
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAD
H: 2
L: 5
R: 1
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@LAD
H: 4
L: 9
R: 3
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 4
L: 6
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>WAS
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>WAS
H: 7
L: 9
R: 7
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>WAS
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
H: 2
L: 3
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
H: 6
L: 3
R: 8
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SF
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SF
H: 6
L: 10
R: 3
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SF
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
H: 8
L: 8
R: 8
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>STL
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 9
L: 10
R: 8
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
H: 8
L: 9
R: 8
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
H: 8
L: 9
R: 8
S: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
H: 10
L: 9
R: 10
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 4
L: 3
R: 4
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PHI
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@WAS
H: 5
L: 1
R: 6
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@WAS
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@WAS
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 7
L: 3
R: 10
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CIN
H: 8
L: 1
R: 10
S: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CIN
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>CIN
H: 6
L: 4
R: 8
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>NYM
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 10
L: 8
R: 9
S: 9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
H: 10
L: 10
R: 8
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
H: 7
L: 1
R: 8
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@PIT
H: 7
L: 10
R: 1
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
H: 8
L: 4
R: 10
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
6 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 6
L: 3
R: 7
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
H: 2
L: 3
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
H: 6
L: 1
R: 8
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>SD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PIT
H: 8
L: 6
R: 10
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PIT
H: 10
L: 10
R: 8
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>PIT
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
H: 7
L: 6
R: 9
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
H: 6
L: 9
R: 3
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@HOU
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@FLA
H: 5
L: 8
R: 2
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@FLA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@FLA
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 total
4 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 6
L: 9
R: 4
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
H: 2
L: 5
R: 1
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
H: 5
L: 10
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
H: 2
L: 3
R: 1
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>LAD
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
H: 7
L: 4
R: 8
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CIN
H: 6
L: 10
R: 3
S: 3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CIN
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CIN
H: 8
L: 1
R: 10
S: 2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
H: 2
L: 1
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@MIL
H: 4
L: 2
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@COL
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 7
L: 7
R: 6
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
H: 3
L: 2
R: 3
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>ARI
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
H: 10
L: 8
R: 10
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@CHC
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>

</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 total
3 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f2; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>H: 3
L: 6
R: 2
S: 6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>@ATL
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>FLA
H: 7
L: 9
R: 4
S: 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>FLA
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top" align=middle>FLA
H: 5
L: 9
R: 2
S: 5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.





Tristan's hitting strategies




• The Los Angeles Dodgers, slumping mightily in their past 22 games (9-13 record, .255/.312/.380 team hitting rates), could sure use a schedule like this week's to pad their hitting stats as well as boost their standing in the NL West race. They'll face nothing but Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks starters, both of those opponents ranking no better than 23rd in terms of their starters' ERA or WHIP (Pirates are exactly 23rd in each, with a 4.43 ERA and 1.41 WHIP). Monday's and Saturday's games against fifth/spot starters Jeff Karstens and probably Josh Collmenter are obviously favorable matchups for Dodgers hitters, but so is Wednesday's against Paul Maholm, who is 0-4 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in seven career starts versus the Dodgers. Current Dodgers also have combined .321/.364/.486 lifetime rates against Tuesday opponent Kevin Correia, including Juan Uribe's 6-for-12 (.500 AVG) with a homer, James Loney's two homers in 21 at-bats and Andre Ethier's .529/.619/.765 rates in 21 plate appearances.


• It's a shame the Detroit Tigers don't boast more left-handed hitters on their roster, as they're rated a perfect 10 from that side this week, and with good reason: Their projected Tuesday (Nick Blackburn), Friday (Luke Hochevar) and Sunday (Kyle Davies) opponents have surrendered .289/.359/.475 lifetime rates combined to left-handed hitters, not to mention are a combined 10-17 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 32 career games (29 starts) versus the Tigers. The former numbers make catcher-eligibles Alex Avila and Victor Martinez incredibly attractive choices, plus hint that Brennan Boesch and Don Kelly could sneak into enough games to be AL-only worthy, while the latter numbers say don't fear Tigers right-handers, either. After all, that's still a 9-rated week for the team at large.


• This hasn't been nearly as potent a Phillies offense as the model we saw in seasons past, ranking ninth in runs per game (4.63) and 11th in team OPS (.728). Look at some of the starters this lineup will face: Josh Johnson (Tuesday), Ricky Nolasco (Wednesday), Tim Hudson (Saturday), Tommy Hanson (Sunday). In fact, their final five starting-pitching opponents -- excluding Monday foe Javier Vazquez -- are a combined 22-18 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP against the Phillies in their careers. You can load up on Phillies against the struggling Vazquez on Monday in a daily league, and in a weekly league obviously you're not going to sit a Ryan Howard or Shane Victorino, but don't be too bold in the latter format. There's a good chance this week might feature a slew of 3-2 pitchers' duels.


• Some Week 6 individual hitting sleepers you can exploit:


Rajai Davis: He has six stolen bases in as many games since returning from the DL; so much for the ankle issue. The Blue Jays also play two against the Red Sox, against whom they stole nine bases as a team in a four-game series sans Davis from April 15-18, not to mention luck out in facing the Twins while strong-armed catcher Joe Mauer is sidelined due to injury.
Matt Joyce: His Rays face nothing but right-handed starters, he's a .384/.420/.575 hitter against righties in 81 plate appearances this season and the Rays have been using him as their cleanup hitter against righties. Laynce Nix: With Michael Morse struggling, the Nationals have granted Nix starts in left field against each of their past four right-handed opposing starters, primarily due to Nix's .325/.341/.575 rates against that side. The Nationals face nothing but righty starters this week, so Nix could be prominently featured.
Mark Trumbo: He's 11-for-33 (.333 AVG) with three home runs versus left-handers already this season, has started all 11 Angels games against lefties and gets the advantage of three games at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark.



Weather report




Weatherproof games: Reds at Astros (3, Mon-Wed); Mets at Astros (3, Fri-Sun); Tigers at Blue Jays (1, Mon); Red Sox at Blue Jays (2, Tue-Wed); Padres at Brewers (3, Mon-Wed); Pirates at Brewers (3, Fri-Sun); Orioles at Rays (3, Fri-Sun).



Tristan's Week 6 pitcher rankings: Top 75




Rankings take into account several factors: The pitcher's raw talent, historical and recent performance; number of starts; strength of opponent(s); and ballpark factors. Be aware that different leagues might emphasize different pitching statistics that could change these rankings slightly. These are based upon a fairly standard Rotisserie scoring system, like ESPN's.


1. Tommy Hanson (ATL) -- Tue-WAS (Marquis), Sun-PHI (Worley)
2. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Mon-MIN (Liriano), Sun-@NYY (Garcia)
3. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Tue-ARI (Kennedy), Sun-@CHC (Zambrano)
4. David Price (TB) -- Tue-@CLE (Tomlin), Sun-BAL (Arrieta)
5. Roy Halladay (PHI) -- Tue-@FLA (Johnson)
6. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Wed-@BAL (Tillman)
7. Trevor Cahill (OAK) -- Mon-@TEX (Wilson), Sun-CHW (Buehrle)
8. Josh Johnson (FLA) -- Tue-PHI (Halladay)
9. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Wed-@FLA (Nolasco)
10. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Sat-@ATL (Hudson)
11. Max Scherzer (DET) -- Mon-@TOR (Morrow), Sun-KC (Davies)
12. Chad Billingsley (LAD) -- Mon-@PIT (Karstens), Sat-ARI (TBD)
13. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) -- Mon-NYM (Capuano), Sat-SD (Harang)
14. Tim Hudson (ATL) -- Sat-PHI (Hamels)
15. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Fri-KC (Hochevar)
16. Brandon Morrow (TOR) -- Mon-DET (Scherzer), Sun-@MIN (Liriano)
17. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Sat-BOS (Buchholz)
18. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Fri-@TEX (Holland)
19. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Fri-ARI (Saunders)
20. Ian Kennedy (ARI) -- Tue-@SF (Lincecum), Sun-@LAD (Lilly)
21. Michael Pineda (SEA) -- Tue-@BAL (Arrieta), Sun-@CLE (Tomlin)
22. Roy Oswalt (PHI) -- Fri-@ATL (Jurrjens)
23. Shaun Marcum (MIL) -- Tue-SD (Richard)
24. Brandon Beachy (ATL) -- Wed-WAS (Lannan)
25. Zack Greinke (MIL) -- Mon-SD (Latos), Sun-PIT (Correia)
26. Dan Haren (LAA) -- Sat-@TEX (Ogando)
27. C.J. Wilson (TEX) -- Mon-OAK (Cahill), Sun-LAA (Santana)
28. Matt Garza (CHC) -- Wed-STL (Westbrook)
29. Hiroki Kuroda (LAD) -- Wed-@PIT (Maholm)
30. Chris Carpenter (STL) -- Tue-@CHC (Zambrano), Sun-@CIN (Wood)
31. Jorge De La Rosa (COL) -- Fri-SD (Moseley)
32. Mat Latos (SD) -- Mon-@MIL (Greinke), Sun-@COL (Chacin)
33. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) -- Wed-NYM (Niese)
34. Jaime Garcia (STL) -- Thu-@CHC (Coleman)
35. Alexi Ogando (TEX) -- Sat-LAA (Haren)
36. Randy Wolf (MIL) -- Wed-SD (Stauffer)
37. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) -- Tue-STL (Carpenter), Sun-SF (Lincecum)
38. Jair Jurrjens (ATL) -- Fri-PHI (Oswalt)
39. Jake Arrieta (BAL) -- Tue-SEA (Pineda), Sun-@TB (Price)
40. Ted Lilly (LAD) -- Tue-@PIT (Correia), Sun-ARI (Kennedy)
41. Matt Cain (SF) -- Thu-ARI (Hudson)
42. Gavin Floyd (CHW) -- Sat-@OAK (Ross)
43. Ricky Romero (TOR) -- Fri-@MIN (Duensing)
44. Justin Masterson (CLE) -- Thu-TB (Hellickson)
45. Josh Tomlin (CLE) -- Tue-TB (Price), Sun-SEA (Pineda)
46. Daniel Hudson (ARI) -- Thu-@SF (Cain)
47. Scott Baker (MIN) -- Wed-DET (Coke)
48. Colby Lewis (TEX) -- Tue-OAK (Anderson)
49. James Shields (TB) -- Wed-@CLE (Gomez)
50. Anibal Sanchez (FLA) -- Sat-@WAS (Hernandez)
51. Ricky Nolasco (FLA) -- Wed-PHI (Lee)
52. Brian Duensing (MIN) -- Fri-TOR (Romero)
53. Jonathan Sanchez (SF) -- Wed-ARI (Galarraga)
54. Brett Anderson (OAK) -- Tue-@TEX (Lewis)
55. Derek Lowe (ATL) -- Thu-WAS (Zimmermann)
56. Josh Beckett (BOS) -- Tue-@TOR (Drabek)
57. Fausto Carmona (CLE) -- Sat-SEA (Bedard)
58. Wade Davis (TB) -- Fri-BAL (Guthrie)
59. John Danks (CHW) -- Tue-@LAA (Pineiro)
60. Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) -- Wed-CIN (Volquez)
61. Ervin Santana (LAA) -- Mon-CHW (Jackson), Sun-@TEX (Wilson)
62. Zach Britton (BAL) -- Thu-SEA (Vargas)
63. Jason Hammel (COL) -- Tue-NYM (Pelfrey)
64. Tom Gorzelanny (WAS) -- Fri-FLA (Volstad)
65. Bud Norris (HOU) -- Fri-NYM (Young)
66. A.J. Burnett (NYY) -- Wed-KC (Chen)
67. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Fri-@CHC (Dempster)
68. Erik Bedard (SEA) -- Sat-@CLE (Carmona)
69. Jeremy Guthrie (BAL) -- Fri-@TB (Davis)
70. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Fri-PIT (McDonald)
71. Chris Young (NYM) -- Fri-@HOU (Norris)
72. Bartolo Colon (NYY) -- Fri-BOS (Matsuzaka)
73. Edinson Volquez (CIN) -- Wed-@HOU (Rodriguez)
74. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Thu-@CLE (Masterson)
75. Gio Gonzalez (OAK) -- Wed-@TEX (Harrison)



Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Kevin Correia (PIT) -- Tue-LAD (Lilly), Sun-@MIL (Greinke)
Freddy Garcia (NYY) -- Tue-KC (Davies), Sun-BOS (Lester)
Francisco Liriano (MIN) -- Mon-@BOS (Lester), Sun-TOR (Morrow)
Travis Wood (CIN) -- Mon-@HOU (Rodriguez), Sun-STL (Carpenter)
Vance Worley (PHI) -- Mon-@FLA (Vazquez), Sun-@ATL (Hanson)



No-thank-yous, among two-starts:
Chris Capuano (NYM) -- Mon-@COL (Chacin), Sun-@HOU (Rodriguez)
Kyle Davies (KC) -- Tue-@NYY (Garcia), Sun-@DET (Scherzer)
Jeff Karstens (PIT) -- Mon-LAD (Billingsley), Sat-@MIL (Narveson)
Jason Marquis (WAS) -- Tue-@ATL (Hanson), Sun-FLA (Vazquez)
Aneury Rodriguez (HOU) -- Mon-CIN (Wood), Sun-NYM (Capuano)
Javier Vazquez (FLA) -- Mon-PHI (Worley), Sun-@WAS (Marquis)



One-start sleepers:
Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Tue-@HOU (Myers)
Mark Buehrle (CHW) -- Sun-@OAK (Cahill)
Jon Garland (LAD) -- Thu-@PIT (Morton)
J.A. Happ (HOU) -- Sat-NYM (Dickey)
Philip Humber (CHW) -- Fri-@OAK (McCarthy)
Chris Narveson (MIL) -- Sat-PIT (Karstens)
Joel Pineiro (LAA) -- Tue-CHW (Danks)
Alex White (CLE) -- Fri-SEA (Fister)

 

[HacheMan]

Should you pick up Eric Hosmer?

Eric Karabell

I was pretty surprised the Kansas City Royals announced they will promote hotshot first-base prospect Eric Hosmer to the majors for a Friday debut. I don't have too many doubts about Hosmer's ability, but I thought the cost-cutting Royals would wait until June. Kudos to the contending Royals, because Hosmer is an upgrade over Kila Ka'aihue, and this is certainly exciting fantasy news.


<OFFER>I realize I'm the conservative guy far more likely to avoid the youngsters, as I continually beat the drum for Lance Berkman in March, but I think Hosmer can be special. He ranked ahead of Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman on the prospect lists I saw prior to the season, with big league opportunity generally being the differentiator between the three sweet-swinging lefty hitters in fantasy. Well, the deal has changed. Of course, Belt did so well he's down at Triple-A Fresno -- though he's absolutely raking there and should be with the San Francisco Giants any minute now -- and Freeman has showed inconsistent signs of progress with the Atlanta Braves. But I like Hosmer's upside and immediacy more. He's going to hit right away.

Ultimately, what fantasy owners want to know is whether they should add Hosmer. I say yes. Even in 10-team standard leagues, I would and actually have been doing it. With most rookies, I don't bother. Perhaps I am overrating him, but with roughly 130 games to go I could see 20 home runs, 80 RBIs and a .300 batting average. The tools are certainly there.


But back to 10-team leagues: My theory, and I posted this on Twitter -- yeah, I appear to be hooked! -- is if you've got the space and aren't releasing an All-Star go for it. You can always cut Hosmer in two weeks if he turns out to be Belt and is hitting below his weight. I just don't want to miss out in case, as some scouts were telling colleague Buster Olney, this is the next Joey Votto. You can find a lot more information about Hosmer on these pages -- Jason Grey knows Hosmer well -- so I urge you to check it out.


For now, here are my first base rankings for the rest of the season. That means, if I was drafting today, from this point forward this is my order. You won't see many changes with the veterans at the top, but then, like pretty much all the offensive positions, the talent runs out quicker than we'd like. For me, that tier of sure things ends well before the top 20 does.


1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: No, I don't think he's washed up, but one double, really?
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: Find me a negative. Worry in the offseason.
3. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: He is who we thought he was. Might win the batting title.
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox will hit. Adrian isn't struggling, you know.
5. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: Should be his best season in awhile.
6. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers: Someone's gotta play first base for the Cubs next year.
7. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: Won't get to 40-140, but 35-120 is fine with us.
8. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Ranks better at third base, but not suffering here.
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: Still think he can't duplicate his 2010 campaign?
10. Adam Dunn, White Sox: Last hit fewer than 38 home runs when Disco was king.
11. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals: Sorry, he's just not an elite power or RBI guy, but he'll hit .300.
12. Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals: Will cool off at some point, but shouldn't fall apart.
13. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Can't give up now, but if he's not hitting in a month ...
14. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays: Not getting embarrassed by lefties anymore.
15. Ike Davis, New York Mets: Better than most people think, could go 30-100.
16. Eric Hosmer, Royals: Perhaps this is a bit generous, but it's not like the guys after him are wily vets.
17. Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners: Looks like he's breaking out, but oh, that team. Will he score 60?
18. Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins: Also a bit underrated, but doesn't have huge upside.
19. Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers: Now you can enjoy his 20-75 season in the outfield as well.
20. Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants: Yeah, over Freeman, even though Belt's in Fresno.


Notes: Freeman and Brett Wallace would be next on my list, and should be owned in standard leagues, used at corner infield or utility. I can easily make the case for Todd Helton and Matt LaPorta as well, perhaps over them. I've run out of patience on Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena and Aubrey Huff, though. How can't their real teams be tired of them? Adam LaRoche and his balky shoulder are clearly hurting. Carlos Lee is clearly old and slow. And I can't trust Kendrys Morales. What if he's out another month? Keep an eye on Juan Miranda of Arizona.

 

[HacheMan]

Feliz, Peavy recovering; Lyon lands on DL

Stephania Bell

Three Up, Three Down. That's what I've decided to call today's blog. It just seemed to capture the injury pattern in baseball in a neat, baseball-lingo sort of way. Just when you think it's time to get excited about players nearing a return from injury, the enthusiasm is tempered by others being forced out with new ailments. It's a never-ending battle for teams to maintain a healthy roster and this week is no different from any we've seen so far this season.


We start with the good news, which is as it should be on a Friday. Here are three players whose status appear to be on the upswing:

Neftali Feliz, P, Texas Rangers: When the Rangers put their closer on the DL in April, they did so fairly quickly. After Feliz initially complained of tightness in his shoulder, he struggled in his subsequent outing and that was enough for the Rangers to make the call. That decision may prove to be very beneficial in the long-term. Feliz looked so good in his Double-A Frisco rehab appearance on Wednesday that the Rangers decided to activate him before Friday's game (the first day he was eligible to return). Feliz will be back in the closer's role this weekend as the Rangers host the New York Yankees.


Jake Peavy, P, Chicago White Sox: Peavy's return from surgery to repair his ruptured latissimus dorsi tendon has been well documented, as have his minor speed bumps along the way. Peavy initially experienced some rotator cuff tendinitis during spring training, which forced him to back off his progression. After working his way back into rehab starts, Peavy had a recurrence of discomfort in his shoulder in mid-April, which again slowed his progress. His past two rehab starts, however, have signaled his readiness to return to the majors. Not only has he been throwing some good pitches, he has also been able to get his total pitch count up to 100, indicating his endurance has improved. The Chicago Sun-Times reports Peavy could make his season debut for the White Sox on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Angels.


Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers: There was a collective sad sigh among Rangers fans and fantasy owners on April 12 when Hamilton suffered a humerus fracture sliding into home plate. At the time, his projected absence was estimated at six to eight weeks. Hamilton is making strides, however, which suggest that he could return on the short end of that timetable. As of Wednesday, he was swinging off a tee, just over three weeks post-injury. For him to be cleared for this activity, the Rangers' medical staff must like what they're seeing in terms of the arm healing. As general manager Jon Daniels told the Dallas Morning News, "It's too early to narrow down a date for his return, but we're definitely heading in a good direction and it's reasonable to assume he'll be back within the original time frame." Hamilton's ability to increase his activity with his arm is as important for preserving muscular strength and coordination as anything else, which may help improve how he fares at the plate when he does return.


And then there are the less fortunate. Here are three players whose recent injuries will keep them down for at least the 15-day minimum.

Nyjer Morgan, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Morgan gave new meaning to the term "sacrifice bunt" when he absorbed the impact of the baseball on his left middle finger on a bunt during Thursday's game, ending up on the DL as a result. Morgan had just been activated from the DL two days earlier for a thigh contusion. The team estimates he could be away for two to four weeks, but the usual concerns about grip strength following a finger injury will follow.


Eric Chavez, 3B, New York Yankees: Even Chavez would probably acknowledge that the injury-prone label is justified but that says nothing about his work ethic. Chavez has battled his way back from numerous injuries, most recently a career-threatening neck issue, but earned himself a spot with the New York Yankees after an impressive spring. Unfortunately, he finds himself back on the disabled list after fracturing the fifth metatarsal (long bone of the outer forefoot) in his left foot while running out a triple on Thursday. The amount of time he'll miss is unclear but expect it to exceed 15 days.


Brandon Lyon, P, Houston Astros: The announcement that Lyon was being evaluated for shoulder weakness suggested the presence of a muscular injury. Sure enough, an MRI revealed a partial rotator cuff tear and biceps tendinitis in Lyon's right shoulder, not encouraging, but also not particularly surprising in a veteran pitcher. In other words, the wear and tear aspect of the injury is not likely new and has possibly been evolving for some time. Clearly it has become more problematic of late, as Lyon had not been effective in recent outings. He will be treated conservatively, meaning no surgery (at least not yet) but rather a period of rest and recovery followed by strengthening and a gradual throwing progression. Lyon should not be expected to return anytime soon.