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hacheman@therx.com
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NL Notes: The Hunt For Saves
It was a given that Julio Teheran would be one and done after his Saturday start against the Phillies, but it was still a must-watch outing. The 20-year-old showed plenty of life on a 91-94 mph fastball and a changeup he was successful at keeping down in the zone. His curveball didn't prove very useful, mainly because he couldn't get to two strikes to use it as a put-away pitch. Still, even though he was removed in the fifth after allowing three runs, it was a pretty encouraging performance, particularly in the composure department. The Braves certainly won't be scared to go to him again. However, I do think they'd use Mike Minor first if one of their starters were to go down prior to the All-Star break.

Nationals League Notes

- We know what Anibal Sanchez can do when he's on; he took a no-hitter into the ninth against the Rockies last month and then carried one into the seventh inning Sunday against the Nationals. But those are his only two wins this season. My theory is that his arm just isn't particularly resilient and he'd be much better off getting the Pedro Martinez treatment and making most of his starts on five or six days' rest. The Marlins, though, aren't going to go that route, and it's not like Sanchez is hurting them as is. He'll probably have a great month of starts at some point, but I don't think he has to be picked up in mixed leagues right now.

- Whatever was wrong with Yovani Gallardo seemed to get solved Saturday. His velocity has been fine all along, and he really had his slider working against the Cardinals. I dropped him a bit in the rankings last week, but he really should be a top-20 starter the rest of the way.

- The Brewers are likely to be very patient with Casey McGehee after he drove in 104 runs in 2010, but following 33 games this year, he's batting .264/.323/.388 and he's committed five errors while being involved in just three double plays. Mat Gamel's case for a callup would be stronger if he were better defensively, but he is hitting .309/.377/.491 in Triple-A. The Brewers are only getting offense from three spots right now and they badly need more from McGehee and Corey Hart.

- Logan Morrison (foot) appears set to come off the DL on Friday, so NL-only leaguers without full-timers as alternatives might want to activate him. His return will put Emilio Bonifacio back into the mix at third base, where the Marlins have been going with Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms. Bonifacio figures to remain in the lineup most days, so Dobbs could revert to being worthless in NL-only leagues. Helms has never been anything but.

- Brandon Lyon will try to make it back from a partial rotator cuff tear next month, but the Astros should be hoping Mark Melancon runs away with the closer's gig by then. The 26-year-old protected a one-run lead Friday for his first career save and lowered his ERA to 1.62 in the process. Melancon doesn't have top-flight stuff, but his curve is a true swing-and-miss pitch and he's getting more outs with his 91-94 mph fastball this year. If his command holds up, he'll be a fair closer for the Astros. He'd crack the top 30 if I redid the reliever rankings this week.

- Eduardo Sanchez was wild in going for his fourth save on Sunday, so Fernando Salas came in with two outs and notched his third save. Now Mitchell Boggs, Sanchez and Salas all have the same number of saves. Salas, since he throws 89-93 mph, looks less like a closer than the other two, but he has better command than Sanchez and a better breaking ball than Boggs. And we haven't even mentioned Jason Motte yet. Motte's stuff hasn't been as crisp this year as it was last year, but it is getting better and he has a 1.76 ERA anyway. He might yet win out in all of this. In the meantime, no one in the St. Louis pen absolutely has to be owned in mixed leagues. Sanchez is the favorite for saves at the moment, but I still think Boggs has the most value in the group.

- The Jonathan Broxton news was actually pretty encouraging, in my opinion. Yeah, he'll miss the rest of May, but at least there's an explanation for his diminished stuff; he has a bone spur and a bone bruise affecting his elbow. Perhaps the spur will require surgery, but given that he was perfectly willing to pitch through the soreness before the Dodgers made the decision to shut him down, that seems unlikely. Of course, there's no guarantee that he'll return to old form after taking three weeks off, but at least there's a shot.

In the meantime, the Dodgers are going with Vicente Padilla in the closer's role for now. Hong-Chih Kuo will be a factor if he recovers his stuff, but he hasn't looked right since returning from a back strain. Don't forget about Kenley Jansen: manager Don Mattingly doesn't trust him yet, but if he can stay away from walks for a little while, he'll enter the mix. He was 4-for-4 saving games after his callup last year.

- Usually when Ted Lilly struggles, it's because he's giving up homers in bunches. That's not the case this year, but his ERA stands at 4.93 after seven starts. His velocity keeps slipping, and his strikeout rate is way down. I dropped him five spots in the SP rankings last week and probably should have gone further. It certainly hasn't helped that the Dodgers are running out one of the game's weakest outfield defenses with Jerry Sands in left, Matt Kemp in center and Andre Ethier in right. The run and bullpen support isn't much better, so Lilly can be considered expendable in shallow mixed leagues.

- Such an odd start for Jimmy Rollins. One fifth of the way through the season, he has one homer and 19 walks. In his MVP season of 2007, he finished with 30 homers and 49 walks. Rollins' fantasy value has taken a hit with his power numbers down, but he's more valuable to the Phillies with his current .379 OBP. He's also on pace for 40 steals, so he might not end up being too much of a disappointment even if he finishes with fewer than 10 homers and 50 RBI.

- I should have had Braves lefty Eric O'Flaherty listed among the top 70 relievers last week. While he was used pretty strictly as a specialist last year, he's pitching more full innings this season, and with Peter Moylan down, that doesn't figure to change. It makes him a far better bet for wins, and it should give him some lasting value in NL-only leagues.

- The Giants plan to activate both Andres Torres (Achilles' tendon) and Mark DeRosa (wrist) from the DL on Tuesday. Darren Ford and Ryan Rohlinger figure to be sent down. Torres' return will put Aaron Rowand on the bench. Rowand had a nice April while getting a lot more playing time than expected, but he's cooled off since and there's no reason for the Giants to use him over Pat Burrell or Cody Ross. DeRosa is expected to get a look at third base, and since Mike Fontenot has been red-hot while playing shortstop, Miguel Tejada figures to head to the bench.

- I was surprised and encouraged by the Reds' decision to stick with Travis Wood in the rotation and send Mike Leake to the pen. That is the way it was supposed to be before Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey got hurt, but Wood had a 6.21 ERA in seven starts, making a demotion justified.

Wood, though, does have the 34/13 K/BB ratio in 37 2/3 innings. He's also allowed just three homers. I think he'll end up being a solid NL-only starter if the Reds stick with him. Leake would be OK, too, but I like Wood a little more.

The truth is that the Reds can't go too wrong either way. And things are definitely looking up after both Bailey and Cueto turned in strong season debuts. I did have Cueto higher in the May rankings last week. Bailey, though, has made a lot of progress over the last year and could be a factor in mixed leagues if he stays healthy. Watch him closely.

- It might have been too soon to give up on Carlos Pena in mixed leagues. With three homers in five games, he's definitely found his power stroke. Still, I'm not sure how much upside is there. He's probably not going to hit better than .230-.240 over the rest of the season, and he's not going to score a lot of runs while hitting in the bottom half of the Cubs order. He also loses ribbies because of his willingness to take walks. Only those in need of homers over everything else should take him on.

- Angel Pagan's setback with his strained oblique seems to have pretty much reset his clock. He was expected to return Saturday, but now he'll miss an additional two or three weeks. Jason Pridie, an extremely pleasant surprise to date, will continue to start in center field against righties.

- Filling in for Chris Young (shoulder) yet again, Dillon Gee turned in another solid outing for the Mets on Saturday. He'll get the Astros this week, so he's worth playing in NL-only leagues. If he impresses again, the Mets will face a tough decision when Young returns. Both Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese have options remaining, so they shouldn't be taking their rotation spots for granted.

- Joe Blanton (elbow) will come off the DL on Monday, but Roy Oswalt (back) will miss at least one more start. The plan was for Vance Worley to head back to the minors when Blanton returned, but now it's possible he'll stick around and fill in for Oswalt, even though Kyle Kendrick did a nice job in his start Saturday. With no decision having come down yet, Worley is a risky option in NL-only leagues this week. The Phillies could get by without a fifth starter entirely since they have Thursday off, so the smart play would be to reserve Worley.

- No matter how much some fans would like to see it, Chase Utley (knee) won't be rejoining the Phillies on Monday after going 5-for-7 with two homers in an extended spring training game Saturday. The news is encouraging, though, and once he's built up to playing nine innings in the field, the Phillies won't be able to hold him back.

- I'm stunned that the Pirates didn't put Pedro Alvarez on the disabled list, considering that he could use a good week's worth of at-bats in Triple-A anyway. He's been out five days with a strained quad, but it looks like he'll return at some point this week, making him a viable option in NL-only leagues. As poorly as Alvarez has played -- he's hitting .212/.278/.283 with one homer and 34 strikeouts in 99 at-bats -- he should be just one more bad week away from getting optioned to Triple-A. If the Pirates go that route, Brandon Wood would serve as the regular third baseman.

- Six scoreless innings and eight strikeouts for James McDonald on Sunday. Sure, it was against the Astros, but he can't be unowned in any NL-only leagues.

- The Padres lost both Orlando Hudson (hamstring) and Nick Hundley (oblique) to the DL last week, giving Eric Patterson and Rob Johnson some short-term value in NL-only leagues.

- Roger Bernadina will get a chance to win the Nationals' center field job while Rick Ankiel (wrist) spends the next two weeks on the DL. As dreadful as Ankiel has been offensively, he's lucky he lasted as long as he did. I'm not a Bernadina fan, but he is worth owning in NL-only leagues.

- The Nationals picked up Gregor Blanco from the Royals on Sunday, but didn't add him to the major league roster. I think he's just as viable in center as Bernadina, but since he doesn't have much fantasy upside, he's not worthy of an immediate pickup.

- Scott Rolen is likely to miss at least another 10 days with his sore shoulder, but the Reds could get Juan Francisco back as a third-base option next weekend. Francisco, out since mid-April with a calf strain, is set to begin play with Triple-A Louisville, possibly on Tuesday. He'll take at-bats away from Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cairo after returning.

- Unfortunately, Jason Bourgeois was just becoming a real factor in Houston before suffering a strained oblique and going on the DL Sunday. Carlos Lee is back in the lineup now, so Bourgeois wasn't going to keep starting in the outfield. However, he seemed poised to rob Bill Hall of playing time at second base. Hall is safe again now, but by the end of the month, the Astros should have Jeff Keppinger back from foot surgery to battle for starts at second.

- Brett Wallace's average is down to .339 after a 1-for-15 slump, and anyone who picked him up in a mixed league needs to look elsewhere. He's unlikely to hit better than .290 the rest of the way, and the power numbers won't be there to make him an asset.

- Thanks to Nyjer Morgan's broken finger, Carlos Gomez's benching lasted all of two days. Unfortunately, the Brewers have started hitting Gomez eighth now, so he's not worth playing in mixed leagues. He was a much better bet for runs, RBI and steals while batting second.

- Ty Wigginton (oblique) is eligible to come off the DL on Thursday, but the Rockies don't appear especially optimistic that it will happen. It might be for the best if he misses an extra week anyway. The Rockies need to get either Ian Stewart or Jose Lopez going, preferably Stewart. If Stewart has another bad week, he might head right back to Triple-A.

- Expectations are that Josh Collmenter will step into Barry Enright's spot in Arizona's rotation. As a reliever, he's managed to induce grounders with an 86-89 mph sinker and keep lefties off balance with his changeup. Still, I'm skeptical that he'll be able to survive while facing hitters three times per night. I recommend avoiding him in NL-only leagues.

- Willie Bloomquist (hamstring) is set to come off the DL on Tuesday, but he shouldn't make the same kind of impact he did early on. Gerardo Parra is playing well in left field, and manager Kirk Gibson likes Melvin Mora at third base. Ryan Roberts has actually been getting more time at second lately than at either of those two positions. Bloomquist's return will further cut into Roberts' at-bats, but Bloomquist won't be anything close to the full-time player he was during the first two weeks.

- Juan Miranda's first stint as the Diamondbacks' primary first baseman never got off the ground, but he's starting regularly against right-handers this month, leaving Russell Branyan without a role. Branyan has been a horrible pinch-hitter over the course of his career, so it makes one wonder just how much longer the Diamondbacks will continue to have him occupy a spot. He won't be cut to make room for Bloomquist (Josh Wilson will go then), but he might depart before the end of May.

- The Diamondbacks can afford to cut Branyan because they have plenty of options at Triple-A Reno. Wily Mo Pena is hitting .374/.427/.808 with 12 homers in 99 at-bats. Cole Gillespie is batting .361/.444/.611 with seven steals. Collin Cowgill is at .343/.415/.581 with seven steals. All three of those guys are worthy of looks in a part-time role in the outfield. Brandon Allen, who should be next in line at first base if Miranda fails, is hitting .291/.380/.455.

Then there's former top prospect Sean Burroughs, who is hitting .370/.431/.478 in his first 46 at-bats after almost four years off. He needs to keep it going for another 100 at-bats before anyone will take him seriously, but if third basemen keep dropping like flies -- eight NL teams have third basemen on the DL at the moment and Alvarez would have made it nine -- then he might get a shot with someone.
 

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Jeter Back? Hosmer Up!
We all love weekends, and this particular weekend brought some redemption to under-performing veterans around the league. So they probably loved the weekend despite having to work.

Derek Jeter, most notably, had a two-home-run day on Sunday. He also stole his first base, two days after sitting for a hip injury that he thought was not so serious. Sometimes we go too far when when we declare a veteran done. He's obviously an exceptional player that can at least hit for an okay batting average, steal some bases, and rack up runs on that great offense. As long as you buy with your sights set lower, he could make an underrated acquisition.

But Jeter wasn't alone. Anibal Sanchez is not as old, but he's been through some ups and downs over his career. He struck out 11 and walked none while keeping the Nationals scoreless over seven innings, and his swinging strike rate is the best of his career. He should be universally owned. Carl Crawford had a good weekend, with four hits in three games, and is now 12 for 31 in May. His manager announced that he will be moving up in the batting order shortly, which means that the opportunity to buy him low is quickly passing. The same could be said for fellow Red Sock Kevin Youkilis, who had two hits Sunday, his second-straight multi-hit game and fourth in six May games. Vernon Wells doesn't have the upside of those named here, but he should be able to hit at least .260 going forward. He hit a home run Saturday!

* We all love youth, though, because of the beauty of upside. Eric Hosmer came up Friday and Hozapalooza was on. He collected three hits in his first nine at-bats, with a stolen base, a double, and three walks against two strikeouts. His plate discipline will make him an immediate boon in all OBP leagues, but the question of when his power will show up (not if) is what separates him from being a great keeper acquisition and an iffy mixed-league re-draft pickup. Sure, if you have him, hold on to him. But it's unlikely that a prospect, even one as sweet as Hosmer, comes up and immediately mashes all year. In deeper leagues, he's of course a pickup because he'll play every day and push Mike Aviles, Chris Getz and Wilson Betemit into a scrum for playing time.

Julio Teheran, perhaps the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues, came up for a spot start on Saturday for the Braves, highlighting the insane depth they have on that staff. Teheran struggled a little with his control, and gave up a home run to Ryan Howard, but he's 20 and has a bright future. Those in non-keepers can perhaps pass, though, because the other top prospect, Mike Minor, will probably get the next shot at the Braves rotation. Another pass in most non-keeper leagues is shortstop Jose Iglesias, who was called up by the Red Sox. Even in keeper leagues, the 21-year-old slick fielder has a glove that is way ahead of his bat and he may never be a great fantasy shortstop. He should be a backup, too, while he's up. Also, Marco Scutaro, the man he's replacing, thinks he'll be out the minimum with his oblique issues.

Freddie Freeman has taken his time getting going, but he had three hits - one a home run off Cole Hamels - and is an interesting play in OBP leagues. His plate discipline has always been ahead of his power, so know that if you go get him. Tyson Ross is in a similar position - he has the tools to eventually be a good pitcher - but right now he's not really harnessing it completely. He held the Royals to two runs in six innings, but only struck out four and walked three. Spot-start him against the White Sox at home next week, but he's not necessarily an own in re-draft leagues.

* Injury comings and goings made a mark on the weekend as well. Perhaps most notable is the fact that Chase Utley hit two home runs in an extended spring training game - the first good news for him in a long time. He still has a way to go. What stiff neck? Jose Bautista hit a home run off of Brad Penny Sunday in his return after missing a week. Johnny Cueto was welcomed back into the fold with the Reds on Sunday. He promptly threw six scoreless innings with four strikeouts, one walk, and five hits, and is relevant in most leagues immediately. Grady Sizemore has been back for a little bit, but he looks like he's not going away. Even without the steals, his three his and a home run on Sunday prove he's a worthy outfielder. Aaron Hill (hamstring) is back and isn't a terrible add if power on the MI is all you need. Delmon Young (oblique) could begin his rehab Tuesday, and could be a buy-low even if his upside is not huge. Andres Torres (Achilles), though, has better upside to produce in multiple categories. And he'll be back Tuesday in the majors. Chris Johnson (wrist) returned to the Astros lineup but there's nothing to like in his peripherals, really. Even with better luck on batted balls, he *might* hit.260. Jake Peavy (shoulder) should be activated this week, and his manager swears that Philip Humber will remain in the rotation despite that news. Something has to happen here, but Peavy's injury and surgery history suggests that he might not be around long.

Nelson Cruz, also no stranger to the DL, is on the schneid again with a right quad problem. While he's out, Mitch Moreland will play the outfield and Chris Davis will take his all-or-nothing ways to a regular job at first base. His power upside might make him interesting in some AL-only leagues. Chris Young, the pitcher, was a good story, but an MRI Sunday revealed that he may have re-aggravated his 2009 shoulder injury and his general manager doubts he'll be ready to be activated when eligible. Dillon Gee, who has some injury issues of his own and doesn't really have the fastball to be a great option, will fill in. Pedro Alvarez won't hit the DL, but he also hasn't played since Tuesday because of his quad injury. He should be back soon. Jason Bourgeois hit the 15-Day with a strained left oblique, which is tough because the speedster was playing regularly and was a great pickup in deeper leagues. Joe Inglett, his replacement, doesn't have much that makes him interesting in fantasy.

* Let's look at some fringe starters! Hey, they can't all be no-hitter throwing Justin Verlander types. Daniel Hudson threw seven shut-out innings Saturday and the time to buy low is now. Ryan Dempster gave up only two runs to the Reds, striking out four and walking none in seven innings. He's been unlucky on home runs and is an ownable pitcher. Obviously, he's a risky start away from home, but Aaron Harang looks pretty solid at home. He gave up two earned in seven in San Diego against the Diamondbacks. Erik Bedard only gave up one earned against the White Sox and could be a decent spot-start going forward - at least at home. He hasn't quite got his swing-and-miss stuff back though. Fausto Carmona got the groundballs (13 to three fly balls), but also struck out seven Angels against one walk Sunday. He's a good start against he Mariners next time, but a risky own. Chris Narveson held the Cardinals to two earned and struck out five against one walk Sunday. He's a flyable pitcher in a hitter's park, but he's also got strong peripherals otherwise and is interesting in deeper leagues. Bud Norris could always revert to his old control, and throwing so many sliders is detrimental to his health. But, even in his losses, like Saturday's three earned runs in seven innings toe the Pirates, he'll strike batters out (nine Saturday).

Some guys are just not good starters, like ever. Maybe Daisuke Matsuzaka's elbow was tight as he said, but his six-inning, four-run effort against the Twins looked too much like his regular work to excuse the start. Jeff Francis only gave up two earned runs against the A's in six-plus, but he only struck out two. That sort of mediocre punch is worth avoiding. Kyle McClellan improved to 5-0 by keeping the Brewers to one run in eight innings, but he walked three and struck out three. Even while getting all those groundballs, he was about an average reliever and can't be expected to be better as a starter. Carl Pavano gave up seven runs in five innings Sunday. Though it was the Red Sox, Pavano has lost his groundball rate and is not a great option for the foreseeable future. Livan Hernandez gave up six runs in five innings to the Marlins on Sunday, which is what a pitcher that only strikes out four batters per nine will do more often than not. Especially when he's a fly-ball pitcher. Doug Fister gave up 14 hits and five runs to the White Sox - and since it was at home, he's just not a good start at any time really. He doesn't strike people out, his control is strong, but he's also a fly-baller. That's only one skill if you're counting at home.

* Time for the bullpen update. Everyone's least favorite bullpen manipulator Tony La Russa pulled nominal closer Eduardo Sanchez from Sunday's game after he walked two Brewers and allowed a hit. Fernando Salas got the save, and along with Mitchell Boggs looks ownable now. Their GM even said that Ryan Franklin should get back into the mix eventually. Brandon League tried to go an extra inning when Sunday's game went into overtime but gave up three runs. He's safe until David Aardsma (hip) returns sometime this month. Sergio Santos, on the other hand, was able to go two (dominant) innings and earned the win against the Mariners. Heath Bell blew a save (my word!) but then got right back on track Sunday. Jordan Walden did the same, but obviously it was a little more worrisome. He still seems solid. Frank Francisco is a risky closer, and his manager indicated that Jon Rauch will be an option going forward even if Frankie Frank is the main guy. Francisco Cordero blew a save Saturday against the Cubs by allowing a Carlos Pena home run and three other hits. He's been very hittable and is in a three-year decline according to his peripherals, but seems safe anyway. Brad Lidge reported that he might be back in mid-June since he's rehab has been going well. Another update that's so positive, and Jose Contreras becomes a dropper.

National League Quick Hits: Jair Jurrjens only struck out two but gave up a sole run to win against the Phils and should be owned, mostly … Against the Giants, Jorge De La Rosa walked five (which happens with him) and struck out seven (also normal) in six three-run innings that ended in a loss … Madison Bumgarner shut the Rockies down Saturday (one earned, five strikeouts, two walks) and has now been strong in three straight; He should be universally owned … Yovani Gallardo also returned to form with eight one-hit shutout innings against the Cardinals Saturday, and he's a good buy-low … Andre Ethier lost his hit streak Saturday but got right back on the horse with a home run Sunday … Gaby Sanchez is smoking hot - he went four-for-four with a home run and two doubles Sunday and is a great utility bat in all leagues … Stephen Drew (groin) left Saturday's game but might not miss much time … Rafael Furcal (thumb) thinks he might begin his rehab sometime mid-week … Miguel Montero halted a slide with three hits in Sunday's loss and is an excellent option in any league … Chris Iannetta had two hits but power is his game … Fellow catcher Carlos Ruiz (back) is on the DL now … James McDonald has turned in three straight strong starts, and his eight strikeouts against two walks against the Astros makes him interesting in deeper leagues … J.A. Happ is owned more often, but after walking four and striking out three against the Pirates, it's obvious he's just as difficult to own … Charlie Morton threw seven-plus one-run innings against the Astros Saturday, and his groundball rate makes those five strikeouts more interesting … Knuckleballers are risky to own, and though R.A. Dickey is RAD, he's no different - he gave up ten hits and three earned to the Dodgers Sunday … Justin Turner started that game after getting the game-winning RBI Saturday night (he got a hit and a stolen base) but it was his first start in a week … Mike Fontenot hit a game-winning sac fly Saturday night and is playing better at shortstop than Miguel Tejada did, deep leaguers … After homering Sunday, Ryan Doumit has gone deep in back-back starts, which is nice, but his last start was last Wednesday … Ian Stewart's manager said he has to play his way onto the team, which isn't good news since he's 1-for-12 since his return … Paul Janish (ankle) could be back Monday … Alex Gonzalez left Sunday's game in the eighth with a slight groin strain and may miss a game or two … Gregor Blanco was traded to the Nationals, and he may be a short-term fill-in with Rick Ankiel (wrist) on the mend, but Roger Bernadina will be the primary center fielder.

American League Quick Hits: Curtis Granderson hit a home run and went three-for-four; his batting average is currently so nice because of his power surge, not because of a change in strikeout rate or great luck … Kendrys Morales (ankle, foot) is going for a second opinion … Peter Bourjos got two hits but no stolen base; His owners would like to see him take more chances on the basepaths … Elvis Andrus collected three hits off of the Yankees and is doing just about what was expected of him … Paul Konerko was lifted early from Saturdays game because of his wrist and then racked up five hits on Sunday (he's okay) … Ricky Romero gave up six runs to the Tigers in 3 1/3 innings Saturday; Let's hope his oblique troubles were the cause … Ben Zobrist is back (four for five on Saturday), and his batting average is more a result of his power returning than great batted ball luck … Chone Figgins missed Sunday after fouling a ball off his knee Saturday … Alexi Ogando (blister) missed his start Sunday but should make his next one Friday … It might be pumpkin time for Bartolo Colon, who gave up five earned in 4 1/3 Saturday … The Red Sox have made contact with Bengie Molina's agent, but by all accounts are giving Jarrod Saltalamacchia another couple of weeks before moving on … Adam Lind missed Sunday with some pain in his back but hopes to be back Monday … Kevin Slowey was pressed into service and held the Red Sox to one run in 4 1/3, so Nick Blackburn is on notice … Jeremy Hellickson walked five in five scoreless innings against the Orioles Saturday; since his strikeout punch has been there, and his control has always been excellent, it's reasonable to think he'll get better as the season progresses … Daric Barton is still getting on base, but needs more efforts like Sunday's two-hit game to be relevant in most leagues … Teammate Dallas Braden (shoulder) is headed for a second opinion (from Dr. James Andrews no less), and a third one after that, so that setback he had last week seems serious … Danny Valencia hit a home run and stole a base Sunday and is a decent injury fill-in at a tough position in deeper leagues … Brad Penny allowed only two runs to the Blue Jays on Sunday, but only struck out one batter … Mark Reynolds struck out again and went hitless, dropping his batting average to .187 … Carlos Carrasco (elbow) should be activated this week but he's a risky play still … Teammate and rookie Alex White has a little more pedigree and looked good striking out six in six three-run innings against the Angles Saturday; He'll survive until Mitch Talbot returns at least … Wade Davis allowed three runs and nine base runners to the Orioles and his K/BB ratio (20/19) says volumes about the risk of using him in the future … Rajai Davis was moved to the bottom of the Jays lineup because of his struggles, but he still can contribute in at least one category wherever he hits … Trevor Plouffe left Sunday's game with a hamstring injury and Matt Tolbert took over for the Twins at shortstop.
 

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Trends: McDonald Firing SURGING

James McDonald, SP, PIT

Stats: 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 16/7 K/BB ratio in his last three starts (18.0 IP).

Bottom line: McDonald looked outstanding in his start against the Astros on Sunday, operating in the 93 mph range and showcasing his signature nasty breaking ball (6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K's). The Astros obviously aren't anyone's idea of a scary offensive juggernaut, but McDonald is finally rounding into shape after missing time during the spring and has the arsenal to be a long-term factor in mixed leagues.

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHI

Stats: .375 avg (6-for-16) with three homers in his last five games.

Bottom line: He's still a major liability in terms of batting average, but Pena's recent power awakening can't be ignored given his streaky nature (15 of his 28 homers last year came in June and July combined). As ugly as his season stats are, he needs to be active in mixed leagues right now.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Erik Bedard, SP, SEA

Stats: 1.89 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 15/4 K/BB ratio in his last three starts (19.0 IP).

Bottom line: Owned in just 11 percent of Yahoo leagues, Bedard is once again looking like a legit factor after four subpar starts to begin the season. Assuming his arm stays attached, he should be able to post solid mixed league numbers all season long.

Homer Bailey, SP, CIN

Stats: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K's in his season debut on Thursday.

Bottom line: He's certainly not a must-add in mixed leagues, but Bailey was hitting 94 in his start against Houston, and at age 25, there's room for him to improve on his numbers from last year (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 100/40 K/BB ratio in 109.0 IP).

Austin Jackson, OF, DET

Stats: 7-for-11 with a homer and two RBI in his last three games entering a Monday night matchup with Toronto.

Bottom line: His season average is now up to .224 after it plummeted all the way to .152 on April 19. And though Jackson isn't yet running enough (just 3-for-5 on the year stealing bases), Detroit's leadoff hitter could be on the verge of reemerging as a run-scoring/base-stealing threat after registering 103 runs and 27 steals as a rookie last year.

Will Venable, OF, SD

Stats: .254 avg (17-for-67) with nine steals in his last 19 games.

Bottom line: Why am I mentioning Venable here? A) Because he has raised his average from .139 to its current .214 over the last three weeks; B) With 10 steals total despite his wretched hitting so far, he has a chance at significant value as soon as he heats up. It's unclear when Venable's power might resurface (no homers this year after totaling 25 in 685 at-bats the last two years combined), but be prepared to add him in mixed leagues at the first sign that he's surging. Among his notable hot streaks last season was a four-homer, 12-RBI, two-steal binge during seven games in late June, and he could easily record a similar streak or two in 2011.

Julio Borbon, OF, TEX

Stats: .435 avg (10-for-23) with five runs, five RBI and four steals in his last eight games.

Bottom line: Owned in just five percent of Yahoo leagues, Borbon is an intriguing consideration for owners in need of steals in deeper mixed leagues. Overall, he has recorded six of his eight stolen base attempts in his last eight games.

STRUGGLING

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL

Stats: 2-for-35 with a homer, one run and one RBI in his last nine games entering a Monday night matchup with the Mets in Colorado.

Bottom line: Simply a reminder that there's a solid buy-low window open at the moment on Tulowitzki. And with the Rockies having played 11 of their last 14 (and 19 of their last 28) on the road, I would expect Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez (.321 average in his last eight games) to both produce plenty of offense during the upcoming eight-game homestand at Coors.

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC

Stats: .137 avg (7-for-51) with no homers, one steal, two runs and two RBI in his last 12 games.

Bottom line: Did Castro become somewhat overrated as a fantasy option during his extremely hot start (.418 avg with 14 runs scored as of April 17)? Yes, he did. Make no mistake – he's still a must-own and should emerge from this slump just fine, but let this be a reminder that he's still hindered by a lack of power (four homers in his first 603 big league at-bats), and will need to run more if he's going to truly be an elite fantasy shortstop this year (he's 4-for-4 on steals this season, but has only attempted two in the last three and a half weeks).

Ian Stewart, 3B, COL

Stats: 1-for-15 since his recall from Triple-A; 3-for-41 on the season entering a Monday night matchup with the Mets.

Bottom line: Rockies manager Jim Tracy made it very clear that the pressure is on Stewart, telling the Denver Post that "We are getting to the point with him that it's time for him to fish or cut bait." Perhaps not the greatest choice of phrase given that the term "fishing" generally denotes swinging at low pitches out of the strike zone, but you get the point. Unfortunately for Stewart's hopes of jump-starting his season in the near future, the Rockies were lined up to face left-handed starters on both Monday and Wednesday.

Brett Myers, SP, HOU

Stats: 7.50 ERA, 1.72 WHIP in his last three starts (18.0 IP).

Bottom line: He should come out of this slump and be okay, but after considering all of the negative factors and watching video of Myers' most recent start and coming away unimpressed, I went ahead and cut him loose in one of my main mixed leagues. Quite simply, with his strikeout rate down and his home run rate way up compared to his standout 2010 (nine homers allowed already after surrendering 20 total last year), it's beginning to look like a repeat of last year's 14 wins, 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 180 strikeouts and is wildly unlikely.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns, rankings, projections and more, check out Rotoworld's MLB Season Pass.

John Lackey, SP, BOS

Stats: 7.16 ERA, 1.74 WHIP through his first six starts this season.

Bottom line: Lackey showed signs of returning to prior form with a 1.35 ERA over three starts between April 19 and April 30, but completely undercut any of that momentum by allowing eight earned runs in four innings against his former team (the Angels) last week. With the lofty ERA/WHIP combo and a very shaky 18/13 K/BB ratio on the season, there's very little reason to carry a diminished Lackey on fantasy rosters any longer.
 

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Cole Hamels 'cutting' his way to success
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Jason Grey


The early returns in 2011 indeed show a more improved, consistent cutter that Hamels has confidence in, and the Philadelphia Phillies left-hander has gotten off to a great start thus far, ranking in the top 10 among starting pitchers on our Player Rater and joining teammates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee as pitchers who feature the cutter. Before developing the pitch, Hamels was mostly a fastball/changeup pitcher who would occasionally flip over a curve ball that was mostly a "show-me" offering to keep hitters off the other pitches.

Hamels had some initial struggles working with the pitch last season, and given that he was using it in place of the vaunted changeup that made him the pitcher he is, it's to his credit that he stuck with it and kept throwing it in games, not just side/bullpen sessions, because it has become a good addition to his arsenal.
"It takes awhile to learn a new pitch," Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "And I think it took him spring training and the first half of last year to learn not only how to throw it, but how to use it. He's very comfortable with it right now. He was a phenomenal two-pitch pitcher, and now he's a tremendous three-pitch pitcher."
Hamels initially had issues with his cutter being a bit too big, but Dubee said that is fairly common for a pitcher just learning how to throw it.
"You're trying to make it break," Dubee said. "Guys want to see the ball break a lot, and it's not a breaking ball, it's a cut fastball. The smaller and tighter you can make it, the better it is. The normal tendency is try to get a lot of hand action, but it's just a matter of slicing the ball and getting it to move a little bit."
What we're seeing from Hamels now is the ability to throw that pitch not only for strikes, but also throw it to both sides of the plate, in addition to "back-dooring" the pitch to right-handed batters if he needs to. Hamels is using the cutter to help stay off the barrel of the bat and induce softer contact, with the benefit of hopefully keeping the ball in the yard more often. With the understanding that it's a seven-start sample size, Hamels' decreased homer rate this season -- from 1.14 homers per nine innings in his career to 0.76 per nine thus far -- is a promising sign.
"Especially against righties, [the cutter] is something he can drive in on their hands and get them sped up even more," Dubee explained. "When he was a two-pitch guy, there was a 50/50 chance, and hitters could guess and sit on one or the other. Now he has the ability to throw the cutter in deep for a ball, throw it in for a strike and speed them up, and that opens up the outside part of the plate for that changeup."
It's worth noting that Hamels continues to use the changeup to keep his strikeout rate over a batter per inning, even while featuring the cutter more.
Sometimes the message about a player is simply that he's going to continue to perform at the level we've grown accustomed to. That's the case here, but there's also a slight chance we could see Hamels' best season yet, given the effectiveness of the new weapon in his arsenal. Hamels remains a worthy anchor for a fantasy pitching staff.
 

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Derek Jeter still among top SS options
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Eric Karabell

To answer what is likely your first question, the answer is no, one great game by New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter can't change everything. Jeter entered Sunday's game in Texas with nary a home run or a stolen base and batting a meek .256, hitting one annoying ground ball after another. For perspective, among the shortstops performing better on the ESPN Player Rater before Sunday were Paul Janish and Jack Wilson.

On Sunday, Jeter smacked a pair of home runs among his four hits and even stole a base, and all of a sudden his numbers look a whole lot better, though far from golden; in fact, one big day pushed Jeter into the top 20 among shortstops on the Player Rater, but he's still got a lot of work to do to reach the top five, which is where he was chosen in average ESPN live drafts.


To answer your other questions, no, this is clearly not the same player he was even two seasons ago; no, he won't get the luxury of facing the likes of Texas Rangers right-hander Dave Bush too often; but yes, there remains a valuable fantasy option here. I won't pretend Jeter is 100 percent owned based on his statistics; it's his name, silly, and it might always be this way. But one day did vault him at arguably fantasy's weakest position. And why can't this be the beginning of something good? Sunday's performance was the culmination of an improved week at the plate. You had to see it, really, and I did, but Jeter was hitting the ball better than he did in April, with more line drives, including a few to the warning track. He just missed a home run Saturday. I don't like the eight strikeouts in the past nine games against one walk, but if a more aggressive approach results in days like Sunday, fantasy owners will take it.


Expectations for Jeter should remain in relative check, however. This is not a power hitter likely to connect on 20 home runs, but he has hit double digits every season of his career. Last I checked, the ball still flies out to right field in the new Yankee Stadium, and Jeter still drives the ball the opposite way. And Jeter did steal 18 bases a year ago and he scored 111 runs. At this point, yes, I'd be happy with season totals of 10 home runs, 18 steals and more than 100 runs, but it's also noteworthy that Jeter is hitting .276. Surely Hanley Ramirez (.188) owners would take that. Jeter has scored 18 runs this season. Only Elvis Andrus, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Alex Gonzalez and Asdrubal Cabrera have scored more from the shortstop spot.


I've been asked often in the past week or so if I would change my preseason shortstop rankings after seeing Jeter do so little the first five weeks of the season. Of course, he fixed some of that Sunday, but I can still answer objectively: I can't say I'd change much. It's an awful fantasy position; only five shortstops have hit more than two home runs this season (Troy Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez and Ian Desmond).


I ranked the first basemen in Friday's blog in the wake of the Kansas City Royals' promotion of Eric Hosmer to the big leagues. Here's my top 10 at shortstop for the rest of the season. No, I'm not selling high on Jeter after Sunday, not by any means.


1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: He's hitting .188, which means you'll really enjoy the final four months. You must invest here.


2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies: With two hits in his past 35 at-bats, he's not exactly thriving, either, but he should hit 30 home runs.


3. Jose Reyes, New York Mets: If I could redraft, he'd be much closer to my top 25, knowing this position's weak depth. If he gets dealt, even better.


4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies: Love the walks, and he should score 100 runs with health. There is no power here, however.


5. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers: Will probably steal 40 bases, which justifies the rank on its own. Just don't get too excited; Jeter passed him in slugging percentage mainly from Sunday alone.


6. Derek Jeter, Yankees: Down two spots from draft day, but more because the base stealers passed him than anything else Jeter has or hasn't done.


7. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks: Strong run producer could knock in 100 runs, hit .280.


8. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs: Looks like he could hit .300 again and steal 20 bases, but the power isn't ready. Why he's hitting third in the lineup is a mystery, and wrong.


9. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels: Bigger base stealer than most thought, and scores runs leading off.


10. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians: The problem is, he still might fall short of double-digit home runs and steals. But he gets my nod over batting average drain Ian Desmond, slumping Alexei Ramirez, brittle Rafael Furcal and the upside of Jed Lowrie.
 

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Cutting into the action
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Buster Olney

PHILADELPHIA -- Anibal Sanchez was the latest pitcher to flirt with a no-hitter, in a year in which a lot of pitchers have been dominant, taking his attempt into the seventh inning Sunday. The Nationals got a hit, but Sanchez and the Marlins' bullpen finished off a shutout. Johnny Cueto and the Reds held the Cubs scoreless, and Ryan Vogelsong and the Giants did the same to the Rockies.



</P>
The Braves held the Phillies to five runs in three days. On April 30, the 15 games resulted in the third-fewest runs for any 15-game schedule since 1992.


There is a usual-suspect list of possible reasons. Offensive numbers have declined since Major League Baseball put some teeth into its drug program in 2006 and since testing started for amphetamines. The weather in April this year seemed miserable all over the place, the kind of conditions that typically depress statistics. And managers and coaches and players believe that we've never seen the high volume of hard throwers that we are seeing right now.


But on Sunday afternoon, Chipper Jones mentioned another possible reason for the decline in numbers, as he sat at a table in the Braves clubhouse: the skyrocketing use of the cut fastball.
<OFFER>

"The cutter," Jones mused. "The bane of my existence."


Jones was just chatting, and he really wasn't trying to generate theories about the decline in offensive numbers. But his observations about the advent of the cut fastball sounded a lot like words coming from a football coach, as he discussed the cyclical adjustments and counter-adjustments that are made by offenses and defenses. Jones can't remember seeing many cut fastballs before the late '90s. Pitchers used sliders or curveballs to complement their fastballs and changeups, generally. But then in the late '90s, something -- someone -- changed all that, Jones believes.


Mariano Rivera.


The Yankees' closer was on stage every fall, throwing his cut fastball, breaking bats because of the late movement, overpowering hitters. Four-seam fastballs are thrown at a higher velocity than the cutter, but they usually don't have the kind of late movement that a cutter has. The slider can be a devastating weapon when thrown properly, and its movement is similar to that of a cutter -- but it has less velocity than a cutter, and it's more easily identifiable to the hitter early in its journey to the plate, because of its telltale spin.


The cutter, on the other hand, is a stealthy pitch. At his peak, Rivera threw his in the low-to-mid 90s, with a rotation that more closely resembled a fastball -- but with late movement that is literally impossible for the hitter to track. The Sports Science folks will tell you that hitters will make their judgments about pitches in the first few feet that a ball travels out of a pitcher's hand. They decide whether the pitch is a fastball or a breaking ball or a splitter or some other pitch, and whether to swing or not. But the human eye cannot track the baseball all the way to home plate.


So a pitch with higher velocity and late movement can be an extraordinarily effective weapon, Jones noted, because the hitter often cannot anticipate the ultimate location of the ball -- as Rivera has demonstrated time after time. Hitters swing the bat, thinking the ball is going to be on their barrel, and instead, it's on the handle or on the end of the bat, depending on whether the hitter is a righty or a lefty.


Jones explained that when a cutter is thrown well by a right-handed pitcher, driving inside on a left-handed hitter, it's almost impossible to pull the ball into the field of play. "You almost have to hit it foul" because of its location, Jones said. "The best way to hit it is to pull your hands in and hit the ball" through the middle.


He noted how Mark Grace led off the last inning of the 2001 World Series -- the rally of the Arizona Diamondbacks -- by doing this, leading with his hands and punching Rivera's cutter for a single to center field.


But through the years, Rivera has become the greatest closer in history with the cutter, and now a generation of pitchers has watched him -- and a whole bunch of pitchers throw the cutter, Jones said, from Roy Halladay to Cole Hamels. Rivera is often asked by other pitchers how he throws the cutter, and he demonstrates. The pitching fraternity shares this secret weapon.


The cutter has changed pitching, Jones believes. And it's changed hitting.


Notables



• John Kruk obviously knows a whole lot more about hitting than I ever would, and as he watched the highlights of Sunday's games, he noted that Derek Jeter has seemed to move back from home plate in his stance -- presumably to combat the river of fastballs he's been getting inside from opposing pitchers. This would, in theory, allow Jeter to extend his arms, which he did repeatedly against the Rangers, mashing his first two homers of the year -- his first homers in 259 regular-season at-bats, dating back to last season.


His four-hit, two-homer game will shut off, for now, all the conversation about whether his decline is irreversible. This is the way it goes with every star player as he reaches his late 30s. Every slump raises natural questions about whether age has eroded skills, about whether the player can bounce back. Willie Mays went through it, before he was traded to the Mets -- and after. Hank Aaron went through it, finishing his career as a designated hitter with the Milwaukee Brewers. Pete Rose went through it, to the point that there were whispers in baseball circles that he was among the least effective first basemen in the sport, and that his pursuit of Ty Cobb's hit record was completely selfish. Cal Ripken went through it whenever he struggled at the plate the last decade of his consecutive-games streak. Every time his batting average declined, the issue of whether he would be a more effective player if he took days off popped up -- and, as Cal noted himself, if he hit, all that conversation would just go away.


This is how it will go for Jeter for the rest of his career. If he slumps, media and some fans -- and the Yankees' brain trust -- will evaluate the issue of whether he can be an effective player. When he hits, as he did on Sunday, all that talk disappears. As an aside, following are the Yankees who have had four hits, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs and a stolen base in a game during the live ball era:


Derek Jeter: 2011
Alex Rodriguez: 2010
Mickey Mantle: 1961
Babe Dahlgren: 1939
Lou Gehrig: 1935


From ESPN Stats & Information: Jeter's struggles to hit the ball in the air have been well-documented; his ground-ball percentage of 73.1 entering Sunday led baseball by a wide margin. On Sunday, Jeter hit a season-high three fly balls and a line-drive single, giving him four balls in the air. He did that just four times last season. Jeter's second home run came on an outside fastball, a pitch that he has pounded into the ground all season. Entering Sunday, Jeter had put 36 outside fastballs in play; he hit 30 of those on the ground.


Jeter had a breakout game, writes George King.


• Chipper Jones has been struggling with his left-handed swing of late, so after Saturday's game, he called his father, his hitting coach for life. His father watches virtually every Braves game, but never calls his son with advice. "He always waits for me to call," Jones said, smiling.


Neither father nor son messed around with niceties when they talked this weekend. Chipper just went right into it. "What do you got for me?" he asked.


"You're feeling jammed up, right?" his father responded.


Exactly, Chipper replied, and his father talked him through a couple of adjustments to get his hands freed up and away from his body. After the third baseman got to Citizens Bank Park, he went to the cage, implemented the changes -- and he could immediately feel the difference. "Amazing," the son said about his father's coaching ability, on Mother's Day.


Freddie Freeman hit a home run and made plays in ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball" game, and our producer, Tom Archer, asked for Freeman to be the postgame guest. After the Braves went through their lines of handshakes and high-fives, I asked Freeman to come over to talk about the game.


When Freeman was 10 years old, his mother passed away.
Before we went on camera to start the interview, I mentioned to Freddie that my last question to him would be about his Mom, and how he handles Mother's Day, and right away, you could see the emotion in his face. Mother's Day, he said quietly, can be very tough, and he thinks of Rosemary Freeman.


He was clad in pink on Mother's Day.


• Tony La Russa's eye feels terrible, and he is going to the Mayo Clinic today, writes Rick Hummel.


Moves, deals and decisions


1. Giants manager Bruce Bochy is going to have to make some tough lineup calls in the days ahead, as Henry Schulman writes.

2. The Orioles have some roster decisions coming up, as J.J. Hardy prepares to return to action.
3. As expected, the Braves sent Julio Teheran back to the minors.
4. Hanley Ramirez may be dropped in the Florida lineup, as Joe Capozzi writes.
5. Boston called up a shortstop.

Dings and dents


1. The Mets got more bad news, placing Chris Young on the disabled list, as Joel Sherman writes.

2. Alexi Ogando got some advice from Nolan Ryan about how to deal with his blister.
3. The Twins are struggling terribly with their middle infield, and now Trevor Plouffe may be hurt.

Sunday's games


1. The Giants closed out a series sweep of the Rockies, getting a big lift from Ryan Vogelsong. They shut down the Colorado lineup, as Carl Steward writes.

2. By the way: The Braves-Phillies game Sunday night had a real playoff feel to it, in its intensity and how focused the players on both sides seemed to be. This will be a hell of a race.
3. How Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez shut down the Nationals:
• He generated a career-high 11 strikeouts, 10 of them swinging. Induced 18 swings and misses, tied for the most in a game in his career.
• He had a heavy use of his slider, especially with two strikes. He threw 41 sliders overall, more than his past two starts combined, and a whopping 26 of those came in two-strike counts. Although both hits he surrendered were against the slide-piece, he also got eight of those strikeouts with it.
• Twenty-nine foul balls were also his most ever in a start and the highest by percentage since his start on Mother's Day LAST year.
• High command. Even with all the foul balls, Sanchez ended up with only three three-ball counts the entire day, and two of those were full.
4. How Reds starter Johnny Cueto returned with a win:
• He threw 49 off-speed pitches (48 percent), highest usage since last June, and well above his 35.5 percent rate from last year.
• Worked the corners: Of 78 pitches to righties, only 11 were right down the middle. Used slider heavily to righties (23 pitches), getting 52 percent strikes despite the fact that only 30 percent of the pitches were in the zone.
• The Cubs fouled off half their swings, more than any game by a Cueto opponent last season (average rate 38 percent). That put them in a lot of two-strike holes (15 of 24 batters), and Cueto held them to three singles out of those 15 two-strike at bats.
• He had good movement on the changeup: Although he threw just 12 of them, they averaged 7.1 inches horizontal break and 3.4 vertical. That's almost double his 4.0 and 2.0 averages from last season.
5. Tyson Ross was "the man" for Oakland.
6. The Mariners struggled for runs again.
7. The Nationals were shut down.
8. Kyle McClellan shined again.
9. The Boston offense showed its full potential, as Tim Britton writes. Daisuke Matsuzaka turned it around.
10. The Pirates reached .500, their latest sign of progress.
11. The Texas bullpen was drubbed by the Yankees, writes Jeff Wilson.
12. The White Sox had another good day, as they try to string some together.
13. Aaron Harang racked up his fifth win.
14. Carl Pavano got absolutely pounded, as Kelsie Smith writes.
15. The great offensive drought continues for the Brewers.


Patience Index


<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Worth Their Wait

These hitters saw the most pitches per plate appearance on Sunday.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Hitter</TH><TH>PA</TH><TH>Pitches</TH><TH>P/PA</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Seth Smith</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>7.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mike Fontenot</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>6.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cody Ross</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>6.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Nick Punto</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>6.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ivan Rodriguez</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>6.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Justin Turner</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>6.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ian Kinsler</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Logan Forsythe</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>5.7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 1 -->

Other stuff


• The Reds will be going to dynamic pricing -- a fascinating approach to ticket sales.

Henry Rodriguez had a really difficult day, as Adam Kilgore writes.
 

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Brandon Beachy, Braves' rotation dazzle
Tristan H. Cockcroft


Move over, Philadelphia Phillies, you're not the only pitching-rich team in the National League East.

While the Phillies and their "four aces" garnered all the preseason headlines, it's actually their division rivals, the Atlanta Braves, who have snuck in as fantasy baseball's richest rotation. The Player Rater alone tells quite a story: All five members of the Braves' rotation rank among the top 41 starting pitchers, and to put that into perspective, consider that no other team in baseball had more than three within the top 50, and other than the Braves and the Phillies, no other team had more than three within the top 70.


In addition, through five-plus weeks of the season, Braves starters lead the majors in shutouts (6, tied with two other teams), WHIP (1.09) and OPS allowed (.606), rank second in both ERA and batting average allowed with numbers better than those of the Phillies (2.90 and .228), and rank second in baseball behind the Phillies in wins (16).


Having top-to-bottom rotation depth has played a large part in the Braves' success; how many other teams can claim they don't even have room for two pitching prospects like Mike Minor and Julio Teheran? Minor and Teheran, incidentally, are a combined 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.33 strikeouts per walk in 10 starts for Triple-A Gwinnett. In most any other organization in baseball, at least one -- and probably both -- would already be in the big league rotation.


But neither is in the Braves' current starting five, and with good reason: a 24-year-old No. 5 starter named Brandon Beachy.


Though not as heralded a prospect as Minor or Teheran -- Baseball America ranked Beachy the Braves' No. 8 prospect, compared to No. 1 and No. 4, respectively, for Teheran and Minor -- Beachy hardly could be described as devoid of talent. He was not only regarded a top-10 prospect within the organization, as well as Jason Grey's No. 28 fantasy prospect entering 2011, he had a 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 4.65 strikeouts per walk during his minor league career. In a sense, Beachy suffered the misfortune of being the least attractive prospect of the three, but all he did was breeze through Double- and Triple-A, pitch well during a late-season trial with the Braves last September and outpitch his competition during spring training, his 0.90/0.80/5.25 numbers in the aforementioned categories earning him his current No. 5 spot.



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Halladay, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Lincecum, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Felix Hernandez, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Johnson, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jered Weaver, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Lester, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cliff Lee, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Haren, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tommy Hanson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Verlander, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">CC Sabathia, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cole Hamels, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Price, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clayton Kershaw, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ubaldo Jimenez, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zack Greinke, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Cain, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shaun Marcum, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Trevor Cahill, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Beckett, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Max Scherzer, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Hudson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Carpenter, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jhoulys Chacin, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Garza, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Oswalt, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chad Billingsley, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Yovani Gallardo, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Danks, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jaime Garcia, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Nolasco, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Sanchez, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mat Latos, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James Shields, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Anderson, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Anibal Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Morrow, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jorge De La Rosa, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gio Gonzalez, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daniel Hudson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Scott Baker, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kennedy, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wandy Rodriguez, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Romero, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gavin Floyd, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Lewis, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Pineda, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Lowe, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hiroki Kuroda, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ted Lilly, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Liriano, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Beachy, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jair Jurrjens, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">C.J. Wilson, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Masterson, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clay Buchholz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">A.J. Burnett, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Myers, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bud Norris, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexi Ogando, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ervin Santana, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wade Davis, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edwin Jackson, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bronson Arroyo, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Cueto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Duensing, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Stauffer, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Randy Wolf, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Zambrano, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Hellickson, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Hammel, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Lohse, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Madison Bumgarner, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Dempster, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">J. Zimmermann, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Harang, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Fausto Carmona, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle McClellan, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Guthrie, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zach Britton, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edinson Volquez, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bartolo Colon, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Garland, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James McDonald, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Matusz, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tom Gorzelanny, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clayton Richard, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jake Peavy, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Lackey, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joel Pineiro, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jake Arrieta, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Correia, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon McCarthy, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Niemann, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Holland, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Tomlin, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rick Porcello, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Homer Bailey, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Drabek, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Erik Bedard, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Beachy has done nothing but thrive in the role.


In addition to registering five quality starts in seven tries, including in each of his past four appearances, Beachy has a 2.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 4.09 K's per walk this season, scoring himself the No. 35 starting pitcher spot on our Player Rater. Three things have spawned his success:


• His fastball has been remarkably effective; he has thrown it 62.8 percent of the time, has allowed only .171 BA/.224 OBP/.243 SLG rates with it and has induced swings and misses 26.2 percent of the time, tops among starting pitchers, according to Inside Edge.


• He has remained consistently ahead in the count, his 61.9 percent rate of first-pitch strikes ranking him 34th of 121 qualified pitchers, according to Fangraphs.


• He has demonstrated little to no difference in his walk rate between the majors and minors, his 2.34 walks per nine from this season barely higher than the 2.12 he averaged in 208 career minor league innings.


Whether Beachy can keep those things up during the course of a six-month season is a fair debate, but there's little doubt that he's a quality contributor in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, especially the latter two, since his command is as sharp as it is. He should be a fantasy mainstay, certainly a pitcher you should have active for the time being, though he's not without risk, which is the lone reason he ranks just 52nd this week. Among those risks: He has never pitched more than 134 1/3 innings in a single professional season (2010); he has gone from 12 to 76 2/3 to 134 1/3 innings in his first three pro years, and therefore might face a late-season innings cap, perhaps in the 175 range. He's also subject to the adjustment period that practically every rookie pitcher faces, which could even coincide with the point at which the Braves begin skipping his turn to keep his innings in check.


In other words, Beachy is a prospect whose fantasy potential isn't much unlike that of Jaime Garcia or Phil Hughes, to steal two of 2010's biggest breakout candidates. Garcia and Hughes combined for a 2.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP before the All-Star break last season; together they had 4.27/1.37 numbers after the break, as their teams continually altered their pitching schedules.


But if the Braves fully commit to Beachy breezing past 180 innings without capping him, then all bets are off.


What of the Braves' other starters? Here's a quick examination of the progress of each so far this year:


Tommy Hanson: He's looking quite the part of the "next ace," a top-10 possible fantasy starter, winning three in a row with a 1.35 ERA, and turning in a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 3.73 K's per walk in his first seven starts.


Tim Hudson: He continues to induce a crazy-high number of ground balls (62.1 percent so far, fourth-highest in baseball) and has walked even fewer hitters this year (1.43 per nine) than last (2.91). Isn't it time to simply accept that his 2010 wasn't a mirage, and that he's a bona fide top-20 starter candidate?


Jair Jurrjens: Perhaps as much of a surprise as Beachy, Jurrjens, since his return from an oblique injury, has shaped up as every bit the solid fantasy option he was in 2008-09. A soft schedule has helped -- his first three turns were against the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres -- but Jurrjens' 1.50 walks per nine and 50.4 percent ground-ball ratios look like those of a pitcher who should maintain at least NL-only and deep-mixed value.


Derek Lowe: The obvious reaction to his performance is, "Oh, he's Derek Lowe, he can't keep this up, so I should sell." To a degree that's true, except for this nugget: According to Fangraphs, he has thrown his cutter 10.0 percent of the time, up from 4.5 percent in 2010 and 1.5 in 2009. Whether that's a product of misclassifying the pitch or an actual change in approach, Lowe has limited left-handers to .250/.313/.330 rates, and his .642 OPS allowed is his second-lowest number since 2003, hinting that maybe he actually has improved his arsenal. If true, Lowe's 3.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP might not be far off from what his season-ending numbers should be.


Three up



Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds: After five weeks lost to the disabled list due to a shoulder injury, Cueto finally made his 2011 debut on Sunday, and what a debut it was: six shutout innings of five-hit baseball, a considerable improvement upon the 6.28 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in four rehabilitation starts for Triple-A Louisville. (For the record, he had 0.40/1.07 ratios in his final two, so this didn't come completely out of nowhere.) That almost entirely restores the breakout potential he possessed in the spring, prior to his injury, as there were hints of greatness present in the outing: Per ESPN Stats & Information, Cueto threw 49 offspeed pitches (48.0 percent), his highest rate of those in a start since June 2010. His slider and changeup were superb; he got 52 percent strikes with his slider to right-handers, despite only 30 percent of those being in the strike zone, and his changeup averaged 7.1 inches horizontal and 3.4 vertical break, nearly double his 4.0 and 2.0 averages in 2010. Those hint that Cueto's injury issues might be entirely behind him, and if so, there's reason to believe his ceiling is that of a top-40 starter. Frankly, he's ranked only 65th here because one start doesn't restore a season. In terms of upside, he's easily worth a ranking in Scott Baker (No. 41) territory.


James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates: Speaking of preseason breakout candidates, McDonald is restoring some of his stock, with three consecutive quality starts. It's that most recent one, this past Sunday, that's the one worth examining, and that's in spite of the fact that all three came against below-average offenses. ESPN Stats & Information notes that, despite his throwing a season-low 43 percent first-pitch strikes in that game, McDonald had only five 2-0 counts and no 3-0s the entire day. That helped lead to eight strikeouts compared to only two walks, and if you think that's insignificant, consider that the right-hander had just 20 K's compared to 17 walks in his first six turns combined. McDonald is a pitcher whose upside you bought strictly because of his strikeout potential; the seeds might finally be sprouting, judging by his recent returns.


Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres: So I waffle on Stauffer a lot; he's a lower-ranked pitcher -- bottom half of the top 100, usually in the 75 range -- so I reserve the right to do so. (Aren't all No. 75 overall pitchers somewhat enigmatic?) He's also a Padres pitcher, meaning run support -- and therefore win potential -- is practically nonexistent, a problem in a standard rotisserie format. In his past four starts, however, Stauffer has restored much of his preseason stock, thanks to a 1.37 ERA and 0.76 WHIP, but perhaps more importantly, 6.00 K's per walk and a 53.7 percent ground ball rate during that span. This is a pitcher who thrives on throwing strikes and generating grounders, and when he's doing so this efficiently, Petco is going to make the rare mistake almost unnoticeable. Stauffer won't win a Cy Young and might never get close to top-25 status, but as a guy you use to stream or round out your staff, he's an excellent choice.


Three down



Derek Holland, Texas Rangers: So much talent, such inconsistent results. After getting off to a hot start his first two times out, Holland has slumped to a 6.37 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his past five starts, and only one of those -- a May 2 assignment in Oakland -- fit the quality-start definition. Complain about the rough schedule during that five-start span if you wish -- he had to face the New York Yankees twice and Toronto Blue Jays once -- but the Oakland game was a comparably easy matchup and it's Holland's command, generally regarded as his strength, that has failed him during his slump. During a nightmarish outing against the Yankees this past Saturday, he walked five batters in three innings and threw 54.5 percent strikes, easily a season low for the left-hander. Holland needs to be sharper than that, as a pitcher who doesn't necessarily overpower, and until he corrects it, he doesn't belong near any fantasy lineups.


Brett Myers, Houston Astros: Phillies fans probably aren't at all surprised to hear that Myers is slumping; that word "enigmatic" mentioned above is a perfect adjective to describe the veteran right-hander. Myers has had his career high points -- 2010 an ideal recent example -- but at other times he can be rather ordinary, a replacement-level option in a mixed fantasy league. A tough-as-nails schedule has contributed, including two starts apiece versus the Reds and Milwaukee Brewers and another at Philadelphia, but there are bothersome developments as well: A 2.00 K's per walk rate, his lowest since 2004; a 42.0 percent fly-ball rate that, per Fangraphs, represents a career high; and diminished fastball velocity, an average of 88.2 mph, down from 90.5 in his career. It's not time to give up on Myers completely, but he sorely needs a bounce-back start in the next couple of turns.


Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies: He doesn't remotely warrant criticism for what has been a rough patch in his season, during which time he has had to deal with understandable off-the-field distractions, but in fantasy the fact remains that we must evaluate a pitcher's statistical potential, and those very issues do decrease his value somewhat. After taking a leave of absence from the team to tend to his family in Mississippi, Oswalt returned only to immediately land on the disabled list with a back problem, something that should keep him out for at least another week. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Oswalt could be on track to return to the Phillies' rotation next week, but the question remains: What kind of adverse impact might a back injury have upon his performance? It's a fair point to question how much he might help between now and Memorial Day. That's not enough to drop him several tiers in the rankings, but certainly out of the top 20.
 

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Thoughts on Ben Revere, Kyle McClellan
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Jason Grey


Injuries have opened up playing time, at least temporarily, for Minnesota Twins outfielder Ben Revere, who is an intriguing speed play. But does he have the other skills to go with it?



At least a 70 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, Revere, who turned 23 last week, was the 28th overall pick in the 2007 draft out of a Kentucky high school. While he's never going to hit for power -- he has a total of four homers in 1,649 professional plate appearances -- the left-handed hitting Revere has hit better than .300 in each of his four pro seasons, to go along with stolen-base totals of 44, 45 and 36, respectively, in the past three seasons. Revere has the on-base skills to take advantage of his speed, with excellent bat control and the ability to hit line drives into the gaps to keep outfield defenses honest. Revere also makes a ton of contact, striking out in less than 9 percent of his 1,612 minor league plate appearances. He does a good job of keeping his hands inside the ball, and while he'll occasionally pull his front shoulder out early, leading to rollover grounders, for the most part he has a sound swing.
As he puts it, he's "trying to be a little more patient and a little less aggressive" to draw more walks, but his on-base percentage will no doubt be driven by his ability to carry over his minor league batting average to the big leagues. The organization also has him focusing more on his bunting (especially his drag bunting), which is not as good as it should be, given his speed game. "Three bunts a week, and hopefully I get two hits out of them," Revere said.

Defensively, Revere is a plus defender in either left or center field, thanks to his range and ability to make up for the occasional bad route, though he does have a poor arm. Still, he will be an asset defensively, which will help keep his bat in the lineup.
Revere got one steal attempt (he was caught) in 13 games after being called up late last season, but that's primarily because the Twins as an organization don't give out the green light easily; a player generally must earn it. (Even speedy teammate Denard Span doesn't always get the ability to go when he wants.) But since that's one of the main things Revere brings to the table and he has proven adept at it in the minors, expect the team to let him loose a bit more often this season. He has been working with Paul Molitor on his reads and jumps instead of just using his raw speed to steal bases, as he did earlier in his career.
Revere can put up 40-steal seasons in the big leagues, if given a full-time job, with a good batting average to go with it, and he's certainly a better option than another recent Twins call-up, Rene Tosoni. The caveat, of course, is that both players got their summons as a result of injuries to Delmon Young and Jim Thome, who are both due back soon. Revere could be headed back to Triple-A shortly to continue getting regular at-bats.
Revere is probably ready to hit in the big leagues right now, but he still needs something major to happen to one of the team's starters to get substantial playing time. If that happens, he can be a worthwhile fantasy add as a pure-steals option. AL-only owners might want to stash him away for potential use later in the season, if they don't already have Desmond Jennings on reserve and are light on speed.

Other notes


• Speaking of stolen bases, I've received numerous questions about Juan Pierre's struggles this season; the speedy outfielder has been caught stealing eight times in 14 attempts and also has been picked off once.
Watching him recently and asking around to some other scouts, I haven't heard anything about diminished overall speed from the 33-year-old Pierre. While that could just be because of selective observation, a loss of speed doesn't appear to be a major concern. I do think he has looked a little gun-shy about running as much over the past week while he works through some things, but I wouldn't expect that to last long.
According to ESPN Chicago, Pierre has been studying more video lately and working with roving baserunning coach Devon White to turn around his recent struggles. He's in no danger of having the green light taken away by manager Ozzie Guillen.
"It just happens," Pierre told the Daily Chronicle. "All in all, it's been bad, but I'm not worried about it. I haven't lost confidence in it. Maybe I can get bigger leads. That's the only thing I might see that I probably can get, because a couple times I've been thrown out where in the past I would have been safe, so I think it's my lead."
For now, I don't see any big cause for alarm for fantasy owners, though it's certainly a situation worth monitoring.

• Thrust into the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation following the preseason injury to Adam Wainwright, Kyle McClellan has thrived thus far, going 5-0 with a 3.30 ERA, and is now owned in almost 40 percent of ESPN standard leagues.
McClellan was a four-pitch hurler even while working out of the bullpen in past seasons, and that has helped his transition to the rotation (much like it did with C.J. Wilson for the Texas Rangers last season), giving him more pitches to go to the second or third time through the order, and in the transition from reliever to starter he has focused more on his changeup in key situations rather than his curveball.
"I think my changeup has been my biggest pitch thus far," McClellan said.
That said, I see McClellan as a good sell-high candidate. Despite his changeup being a solid pitch, none of his offerings are true swing-and-miss pitches, as evidenced by his 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings, a rate that has predictably taken a tumble in the conversion. McClellan has had to nibble at the edges of the strike zone and induce ground balls to get by. While he has gotten the grounders so far, his three-plus walks per nine will bite him eventually. That strikeout-to-walk ratio (he has 22 K's to 15 walks) makes it tough to project consistent success going forward, and I don't see enough from a scouting perspective to overlook it, even if he continues to keep the ball in the yard as he has been. Even if he pitches slightly cleaner innings and throws a few more strikes, it probably won't be enough to keep him a viable fantasy starter, even in deep-mixed leagues.
 

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Q&A: Assessing the Mariners' offense
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Eric Karabell



The Seattle Mariners' offense isn't exactly strong, but let's give credit where it's due. A season ago, the Mariners were putrid, like historically so, averaging 3.16 runs per game. The current Mariners are averaging 3.57 runs per game, which doesn't sound like much more, but really it is. Quite a few teams are doing worse, including the Minnesota Twins and defending champion San Francisco Giants.

On Monday the Mariners kicked to the curb outfielders Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans, neither of whom were contributing much, and in one of those cases, let's just say team chemistry also wasn't a strength. The team called up a few minor leaguers, and I have received questions about them, but since other Mariners hitters have been in the news lately and generating attention, I figured I dig a bit deeper to analyze this offense and answer five key questions:

1. Is Justin Smoak really this good? Smoak is hitting .293 with a .929 OPS, which is what many expected the switch-hitting first baseman to do last season as a Texas Ranger. Of course, they sent him packing in the Cliff Lee trade, Smoak struggled in Seattle, and many people gave up on him. With the Kansas City Royals promoting top prospect Eric Hosmer late last week, the one player I saw most compared to him by fantasy owners emailing and tweeting and looking to cut someone was Smoak. I ranked Hosmer a spot better than Smoak for the rest of the season, but that's based more on upside and lineup protection than anything else. I like Smoak. He takes walks and seems to finally "get it," and I could see him approaching his current pace of 23 home runs and 97 RBIs. Of course, he's also on pace for just 46 runs scored.
Smoak is a top-20 first baseman, currently 15th at the position on the ESPN Player Rater; he's owned in 90.1 percent of leagues. I agree he should be owned in standard (10-team) leagues, but I'd still like to see him hit consistently for a bit longer, and I'm not convinced he can produce at home (though so far, so good). Let's put it this way: I feel more comfortable that Gaby Sanchez will reach 25 home runs and 90 RBIs than Smoak will. Both should be owned. Hosmer's different; he could hit .320.
2. Is Franklin Gutierrez worth stashing in my DL slot? The team's center fielder hasn't played yet this season due to what has been reported as stomach problems, and the rumor is he could be back with the Mariners within two weeks. Then again, he hasn't done much in 2011, so he might need his own spring training. Gutierrez is a superior defender, but he's an average (at best) hitter. He followed up his breakout 2009 campaign with underwhelming numbers in 2010, with a .245 batting average and not enough power to matter. The 25 stolen bases were nice, but they were the only statistical differentiator, and the low batting average offsets the gain. I think Gutierrez is more likely to perform at his 2010 level than 2009; he was awful against right-handed pitching last season, and a near-automatic out after the All-Star break. Can we count on him stealing bases at the same pace? Probably not, and if he's not doing that, he can't really be a top-60 outfielder. For the record, he finished precisely 60th on the 2010 Player Rater among outfielders. I'd add him only in a deep league.


3. Will Chone Figgins hit his weight? For the record, Figgins is listed at 180 pounds, and he's hitting .217, so my answer is yes. The better question would be if he'd hit more than Smoak's weight (230 pounds). I think Figgins is a different player than what we saw with the Los Angeles Angels. Pitchers challenge him more, and Figgins draws fewer walks. He's no threat power-wise, and he looks slower as well, with a poor stolen base rate and, frankly, shoddy work at third base. At this point, I'd be surprised if Figgins hit better than .250 and steals 30 bases. He has that Emilio Bonifacio look to him, but not as fleet afoot. Buy low to some degree, because he should improve, but not as much as you might think.
4. Do these new kids matter? Carlos Peguero was 2-for-11 with five strikeouts in an earlier stint with the big club in April. He has a lefty power swing, but if you want to talk strikeouts, this might be a young Russell Branyan. Pequero had fanned 34 times in his 103 at-bats at Triple-A Tacoma. He'll probably launch a few long balls, but it won't be worth it when he hits .220.
Mike Wilson is past prospect status. Now 28, Wilson hits right-handed, so perhaps he and Peguero will be platooned, but Wilson seems the more complete hitter. In 16 games at Tacoma, he was hitting .381 with a 1.111 OPS, and he makes better contact. Neither of these guys is likely to hit enough to warrant a look even in AL-only leagues. I'd stop playing Michael Saunders regularly at some point soon, as he looks overmatched, but the Mariners have nobody else. Prospect Greg Halman doesn't look ready, either. 5. And finally, when will Ichiro Suzuki slow down? Not this year. Ichiro looks terrific so far. He's on pace for his lowest strikeout rate, his most stolen bases since his rookie year and his most runs scored since 2008. I wouldn't sell high, either. He could easily hit .333 this season and keep running.
 

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Well, Well, Wells
It's quite an understatement to say that Vernon Wells isn't off to a great start as an Angel, but things took a turn for the worse Monday night.

Wells was placed on the disabled list after leaving Monday's game against the White Sox with a strained right groin. Wells, who was acquired from the Blue Jays in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera in January, is batting just .183/.224/.303 with four homers and 13 RBI over his first 152 plate appearances this season. While he has hit three homers in nine games this month, his batting average hasn't been over .200 since the second game of the season.

It was utterly shocking to see the Angels absorb the remainder of Wells' contract, so there won't be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking here, but even we don't think he can possibly be this bad for the entire season. Maybe the injury is the best thing that could have happened to him, as he can now take several days off to regroup mentally before getting back into the swing of things with a minor league rehab assignment.

The Angels are hurting for help in the outfield right now, but don't look for any Mike Trout sightings. Angels manager Mike Scioscia indicated after the game that Reggie Willits or Chris Pettit would likely get the call from the minors while Bobby Abreu logs more time in the outfield and Maicer Izturis sees some at-bats from the DH spot.

While Wells hopes for better luck moving forward, here are some more news and notes from a busy Monday in the baseball world.

- The Mariners finally admitted defeat Monday by designating Milton Bradley for assignment. Yes, he is a malcontent, but the decision would have been more difficult if he was actually producing. The fact is he's done little to justify his presence on a major league roster by batting just .209/.298/.351 with a .649 OPS since joining the Mariners in 2010. He was ejected twice in the past week and was batting just .158 (6-for-38) over his last 12 games, so this was an appropriate time to pull the plug.

Bradley is still owed $12 million this season, so he should pass through waivers with relative ease, but it will be interesting to see whether any team takes a chance on him once he can be signed for the major league minimum. Trouble seems to follow him everywhere he goes, so with his struggles at the plate and in the field, the 33-year-old is no lock to find another opportunity in the big leagues.

- In the least shocking news you'll hear this week, the Mets announced Monday that Chris Young has been diagnosed with a torn anterior capsule in his right shoulder. Young rehabbed the very same injury last year and was able to make three starts in September, but he hasn't yet decided whether he will opt for surgery this time around. Either way, it's unlikely he'll pitch again for the Mets again this season.

Dillon Gee, who subbed for Young at the last minute on Saturday night, will continue to take his place in the starting rotation. The 25-year-old right-hander isn't overpowering, but has a 2.34 ERA over his first eight major league starts dating back to last September. Don't look for many strikeouts, but he should be a solid option in NL-only leagues going forward. The Mets don't have many other options in the pipeline since Jenrry Mejia and Boof Bonser are out for the year, so his spot in the starting rotation should be safe.

- Trevor Cahill continues to make "fantasy experts" look positively silly. He entered the season as an obvious regression candidate after posting a 2.97 ERA last year, but you wouldn't know it by what we've seen so far. After tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Rangers on Monday night, the 23-year-old right-hander is now 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA over his first eight starts.

Cahill is enjoying success again this season, but he's getting there in a very different way. He already has 45 strikeouts over 52 1/3 innings (7.54 K/9) after fanning just 118 over 196 2/3 innings (5.40 K/9) last season. He has already struck out seven batters or more four times this season after doing so just three times for the entire 2010 season. I'm skeptical about whether he can maintain this pace, but he's still a ground ball pitcher with solid command in an excellent pitchers' park. He should be a top-25 starting pitcher the rest of the way.

National League Quick Hits: Roy Oswalt (back) is scheduled to make a minor league rehab start Thursday with an eye on returning from the disabled list next Tuesday … Chase Utley (knee) went 1-for-7 with an infield single Monday in his second extended spring training game … Zack Greinke earned his first win over the season Monday by allowing two runs over six innings in his home debut against the Padres … Joe Blanton gave up three runs over five innings in his return from the disabled list Monday, but Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said the right-hander's elbow is still "a little cranky" … Mat Latos dropped to 0-5 with a 4.86 ERA on the year after giving up four runs over 5 2/3 innings in Monday's loss to the Brewers … Pedro Alvarez (quad) went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return to the lineup Monday and made a brilliant defensive play to end the game … Javier Vazquez was blasted for six runs -- five earned -- over 4 1/3 innings in Monday's loss to the Phillies and now has a 6.88 ERA and 16/22 K/BB ratio over his first seven starts … Dodgers manager Don Mattingly indicated Monday that Rafael Furcal (thumb) likely won't go out on a minor league rehab assignment until later this week … Astros manager Brad Mills said Monday that he hasn't anointed Mark Melancon as his full-time closer … Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Monday that Jonathan Broxton (elbow) could be sidelined for another six weeks … Gaby Sanchez, who was named the NL Player of the Week on Monday, went 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in a loss to the Phillies … Ian Stewart went 0-for-3 with a strikeout Monday against the Mets and is now batting just .068 (3-for-44) with 18 strikeouts so far this season … Ty Wigginton (oblique) could go out on a minor league rehab assignment later this week … Scott Rolen (shoulder) took batting practice Monday … Jose Contreras (elbow) could throw off a mound this week … The Phillies expect Carlos Ruiz (back) to return from the disabled list when he's eligible Friday … Mets prospect right-hander Jenrry Mejia will undergo Tommy John surgery … Bobby Parnell (finger) tossed a scoreless inning Monday with High-A St. Lucie and could be back with the Mets this weekend … Jeff Keppinger (foot) could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as Thursday … J.R. Towles went 0-for-4 on Monday in his first career start out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup … Evan Meek (shoulder) threw off flat ground from 150 feet on Monday … The Astros designated Nelson Figueroa for assignment …

American League Quick Hits: White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen confirmed Monday that Jake Peavy (shoulder) will return from the disabled list to start Wednesday's game against the Angels … Max Scherzer moved to 6-0 on the year by yielding two runs over five innings against the Blue Jays … Adam Lind (back) was out of the lineup again Monday and might require a stint on the disabled list … Gavin Floyd is confident he will be able to make his next scheduled start Saturday after X-rays on his right foot came back negative … Josh Hamilton (fractured right humerus) could take batting practice Friday … Brandon Morrow struggled Monday in his second start back from the disabled list, allowing five runs on three hits and three walks over 3 1/3 innings … Twins trainer Dave Pruemer said Monday that Joe Mauer is still trying to regain strength in his legs … The Orioles will activate J.J. Hardy from the disabled list Tuesday … Luke Scott has a partial tear of the labrum in his right shoulder, but intends to play through the pain … Carl Crawford delivered his second walk-off hit of the month in Monday's extra-inning win over the Twins … Josh Willingham appealed a one-game suspension Monday and went 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI in a win over the Rangers … Josh Beckett delivered seven scoreless innings Monday against the Twins, but was handed a no-decision … Delmon Young (oblique) is slated to play his first extended spring training game Tuesday … Carlos Carrasco (elbow) is expected to be activated from the disabled list to start Wednesday against the Rays … Mariners manager Eric Wedge said Monday that he hopes to have Franklin Gutierrez (stomach) back in the lineup within the next week to 10 days … Gordon Beckham hit his first home run since April 10 in Monday's win over the Angels … Jim Thome (back) traveled to Florida on Monday and is expected to play in some extended spring training games later this week … Tommy Hunter is set for an MRI on Tuesday after leaving Monday's game with soreness in his injured groin … The Red Sox could skip Daisuke Matsuzaka in the starting rotation this weekend against the Yankees … Brandon Webb (shoulder) is set to pitch in an extended spring training game Thursday … Trevor Plouffe (hamstring) is slated to undergo an MRI Tuesday … Scott Feldman (knee) could begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend … Justin Duchscherer (hip) will throw a two-inning simulated game earlier this week … The Mariners designated Ryan Langerhans for assignment … J.P. Howell (shoulder) is expected to return from the disabled list around May 15 …
 

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Aardsma Says Aargh

After a few days of silence following his precautionary MRI on Friday, Tuesday did not provide a happy update with regard to David Aardsma. The would-be Seattle closer has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and will pay a visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum, meaning that he could unfortunately be penciling the words "Tommy John" onto his calendar sooner rather than later.

Arm surgery still isn't guaranteed, but the ominous mention of the UCL certainly bodes well for Brandon League, who could use some good news after blowing his first save and taking an ugly loss on Tuesday (though he was victimized by some shaky defense at second base by Jack Wilson). Given the rising concern surrounding Aardsma – and despite the struggles of his replacement on Tuesday – it's beginning to look more and more like League could remain Seattle's closer all year.

Jason Heyward (0-for-3 with two strikeouts) is headed for an MRI on Wednesday due to a troublesome shoulder, which he admitted has been bothering him since spring training. Now hitting .220 after a 3-for-32 slump and admitting that he has felt numbness in his forearm, Heyward is legitimately looking like a player who could benefit from two weeks on the DL (though the MRI results will probably dictate whether or not the Braves go that route).

The struggling Rangers shook up their lineup Tuesday, moving Julio Borbon to the leadoff spot for the first time this season and dropping Ian Kinsler to third, Michael Young to fourth and Adrian Beltre to fifth. Borbon went 1-for-5, but Beltre homered and Young had three hits as Texas scored seven runs, so the arrangement could stick for now. With a .367 average and four steals so far this month, Borbon is worth a close look in mixed leagues.

Chase Utley (knee) began a minor league rehab assignment at Single-A, finishing 1-for-4 with a single. He told the Philadelphia Inquirer that his knee "felt good," but admitted that "I didn't get to do a whole lot of activity." He could spend as many as 20 days in the minors, but that could obviously get accelerated if he stays productive.

Some conflicting info surfaced on Adam Lind (back) Tuesday, with initial reports indicating that he underwent an MRI, which later proved not to be the case. Lind said his back is improved and he's hoping to avoid a stint on the DL, but he still isn't taking part in baseball activities at the moment.

Homer Bailey was excellent for a second straight start, holding the Astros to five hits with no walks and five strikeouts in seven scoreless innings. The 25-year-old now has a 0.69 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 12/1 K/BB ratio in his first 13 innings, and with the caveat that both of his starts have come against the weak-hitting Astros, he's well worth consideration in mixed leagues.

Ike Davis was spotted in a protective boot after leaving Tuesday's game early. He's scheduled to be reevaluated Wednesday morning, but he could be headed for a trip to the DL. Daniel Murphy would take over at first base, with Justin Turner manning second (which would warrant some consideration in NL-Only leagues).

In a disappointing follow up to his not-all-that-great no-hitter, Francisco Liriano gave up four runs in three innings with three walks and just one strikeout before leaving early due to an illness. With a dreadful 9/18 K/BB ratio in his last four starts, Liriano is still looking like a shaky play in mixed leagues going forward.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

NL Quick Hits (pitchers): Roy Oswalt (back) threw a bullpen session and could return Tuesday if all goes well with a Thursday rehab start … Roy Halladay took a loss and Josh Johnson got a no decision, but both aces were outstanding in a 2-1 Marlins win … Tim Lincecum and Ian Kennedy both threw eight scoreless innings in an eventual 1-0 Giants win … Brandon Lyon (rotator cuff) is not planning to return when eligible … The struggling Aroldis Chapman surrendered three walks and three earned runs without recording an out … Speaking of struggling, Brett Myers has a 7.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last four starts … Clayton Richard surrendered seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings as his ERA and WHIP rose to 4.79 and 1.50, respectively … Chris Carpenter allowed 10 or more hits for a third straight start (13 in seven innings, to be precise), but still picked up a win over the Cubs … Joe Blanton's availability for a Saturday start will become more clear after a bullpen session Wednesday.

NL Quick Hits (position players): Dexter Fowler departed early after fouling a ball off his left knee and couldn't put any weight on his leg as he hobbled back to the dugout … Geovany Soto (groin) is slated for an MRI Wednesday … The Giants activated Andres Torres (Achilles) and Mark DeRosa (wrist) … Pedro Alvarez (quad) was limited to pinch-hitting … Carlos Gonzalez hit his third homer of the season, and first at Coors Field … Domonic Brown is hitting .367 with four homers between Single-A and Triple-A … Carlos Ruiz (back) is on track to return Friday … Andrew McCutchen hit a pair of solo homers … Stephen Drew (groin) returned to the lineup, going 1-for-3 … Ty Wigginton (oblique) will begin a minor league rehab assignment Wednesday … Willie Bloomquist (hamstring) is still rehabbing in extended spring training … Orlando Hudson (hamstring) is expected to be ready the first day he's eligible next week … Jim Riggleman told the Washington Post that "We really want [Roger Bernadina hitting leadoff] to work," meaning that the outfielder needs to be owned in all NL-Only leagues … Starlin Castro was demoted to seventh in the midst of a 7-for-51 slump and responded by going 2-for-4 with an RBI … Jay Bruce homered for the sixth time in his last 14 games.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns, rankings, projections and more, check out Rotoworld's MLB Season Pass.

AL Quick Hits (pitchers): Rafael Soriano is headed for what's being called a precautionary MRI on his right elbow … Bruce Chen hit the DL with a strained left lat … Andrew Bailey will throw another simulated game before beginning a rehab assignment … Daisuke Matsuzaka will have his start skipped this weekend … Colby Lewis allowed just one run in 7 1/3 innings, but oddly didn't strike out a single batter in a win over the A's … Joel Pineiro moved to 2-0 while allowing two runs in 7 2/3 innings … John Danks dropped to 0-6 while allowing six runs in five innings … Rick Porcello held the Twins to one run in five innings before leaving early due to rain … Kevin Gregg blew his second save, but had previously converted five straight chances … Frank Francisco blew his first save while surrendering one of Adrian Gonzalez's two homers on the night, but went on to strike out the side in the ninth … Tommy Hunter (right groin strain) reportedly won't be able to throw off a mound for 2-3 weeks … Phil Hughes is expected to begin a throwing program on Thursday, but should still miss another 6-8 weeks.

AL Quick Hits (position players): J.J. Hardy (groin) went 4-for-5 with a homer in his first game back from the DL … Yunel Escobar will be reevaluated Wednesday after leaving Tuesday's game with a lower left leg contusion … Justin Morneau (0-for-4 Tuesday) is now 5-for-32 in May … An MRI confirmed a right groin strain for Vernon Wells, whose absence surprisingly landed Howie Kendrick in left field Tuesday … Delmon Young (oblique) should be activated Friday … The Rangers assigned Leonys Martin to Double-A … Buck Showalter said that the tear in Luke Scott's labrum won't affect how much he starts in left field … B.J. Upton will serve his two-game suspension on Thursday and Friday.
 

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Enough To Make You Angry
This week, Milton Bradley was released, and headline editors everywhere held a moment of silence. Baseball fans might not miss the famously emotional outfielder, but features writers will surely pine for the days of easy copy that just flowed from that man.

Remember when he tore his ACL arguing with an umpire right before the postseason started? Remember when he went after that Royals announcer for his comments? Remember when he alienated every single manager he ever played for?

Fun times.

In his honor, we will name the tiers after the five biggest hot-heads in the recent history of baseball. The angrier the better, in this case.

And a programming note: we'll be switching our focus to the lower tiers now. There's generally less movement in the top tiers, and so many of you are looking for the next closer and want to know how the pens with more movement are going to shake down. So we'll cover the final two tiers more closely in order to serve your needs best.


Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Elijah Dukes" Tier.)



Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

What, you thought Bradley would head the list he inspired? It's unclear if anyone could ever top the ridiculousness that was Elijah Dukes, though. His history comes with an actual rap sheet, and revelations like recreational drug use before baseball games.

Heath Bell did blow a save, but he didn't blow his stack. Instead he went right back out there and blew them by a couple more hitters. There's an outside chance he'd get traded - in which case Luke Gregerson would take over, most likely - but he's so good he'd probably be the closer wherever he landed. Jonathan Papelbon blew a save too, but without giving up a run. And he has 19 strikeouts against two walks, the best K/BB ratio on this list. Joakim Soria struck out four in two innings this week, but his velocity is still down, and we're still touting Aaron Crow as a decent speculative add.


Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Milton Bradley" Tier.)



Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
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Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

The tier is rock steady, and the man was rock steady in that you could always depend on him to not be rock steady. We'll miss your antics, Milton Bradley.
The most newsworthy tidbit in the top of this tier might be the fact that Brian Wilson has only walked two dudes in May. That makes eight strikeouts and two walks in six innings. That puts him in the catbird seat for taking over in case Joakim Soria falters in the top tier. It also makes him the fitting leader of the Milton Bradley tier - he's no hothead, but he might just be as off-kilter on some level.
Craig Kimbrel is more Marmol-ian than Carlos Marmol, with 22 strikeouts (and seven walks) in 15 2/3 innings compared to Carlos Marmol's 19 strikeouts (and nine walks) in the same number of innings. Trying to bat against Kimbrel probably would make you very, very angry.
Neftali Feliz returns, and since he was bringing the heat in his rehab stint, he jumps right back into the fray here. He could even be elite by next week.


Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Jeff Kent" Tier.)



Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins

Comment:
Maybe it was the mustache, but there was something ornery about Jeff Kent at all times. Of course, we remember him for the motorcycle wheelies and the shoving match with Bonds, but he always held that competitive spirit in a very outward way. Like a bristly mustache.
Huston Street blew a save, but got right back on the horse. His strikeout to walk ratio (20 to four) means that he's on his way up to the next tier with a healthy, clean slate week.
Chris Perez keeps saving games, but he has two strikeouts in his last four appearances - he won't move up without more punch. Francisco Cordero blew a save and doesn't have great peripherals (11 strikeouts, five walks in 15 2/3 innings) but there's no buzz about replacing him with Aroldis Chapman yet. Yet.


Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Carlos Zambrano" Tier.)



Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
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Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins

Comment:
Carlos Zambrano is mostly harmless, unless you happen to be a pile of mound dirt or a cooler in the dugout. These closers are good for a blowup or two every once in a while, but are mostly humming right along.
Before you get too excited about Kyle Farnsworth and start trading away your other closers, realize that he has six strikeouts in 12 innings so far this year. Sure, he has only walked one guy all year, but this is not the picture of dominance despite the tiny ERA. Just be happy with what you got, which is most likely a year-long closer that will suffer a few bad weeks here or there. If anyone takes over for him, it might be Joel Peralta, but Peralta's numbers against lefties are ugly. In the same way as Farnsworth (and just as goggled), Kevin Gregg has a nice ERA but he also has almost as many walks as strikeouts and he just blew his second game of the season Tuesday night. Keep Koji Uehara and his pristine numbers on your mind.
John Axford seems perpetually risky, but there really isn't another option in that pen. And anyway, he hasn't walked a guy since April 18th. He's a decent buy-low maybe even. Zooming past Axford is Brandon League with the news that David Aardsma has a sprain of his UCL and is visiting Dr. Lewis Yocum. The only reason League was in the bottom tier was that there seemed to be an expiration date on his time in the closer role. Now, since a sprain is a tear, we know that the expiration date has been pushed out much further. League is possibly even an okay option - but he did blow his first save Tuesday night and has a 4.80 ERA for now, so let's leave him here for a bit.


Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Bobby Cox" Tier.)



1st Chair: Sergio Santos, 2nd Chair: Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
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1st Chair: Vincente Padilla, 2nd Chair: Matt Guerrier, Los Angeles Dodgers
1st Chair: Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair: Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies
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1st Chair: Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair: Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
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1st Chair: Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair: Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair: Brian Fuentes, 2nd Chair: Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
1st Chair: Eduardo Sanchez, 2nd Chair: Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals

Comment:
Bobby Cox is a mad-man if you're an umpire, and yet he's a docile respectable man if you're anyone else. That puts him on the bottom of this list even if he's at the top of the all-time ejection list.
With Jonathan Broxton out six weeks with bone spurs, Vincente Padilla is the man for the forseeable future. We still like Kenley Jansen's strikeout firepower - look at his insane strikeout rate - but his control is just too wonky to be the closer. Padilla might be fine in short stints as ugly as it will look. Matt Guerrier does nothing in an elite way, but everything in an average way and is the dependable setup man now.
Brad Lidge seems to be doing well in rehab and thinks he might make it back in June. That seems to mean that Jose Contreras is droppable - Ryan Madson might just give the ball straight to Lidge upon his return.
As predicted for about the past four weeks in this column, Brandon Lyon lost his closer role. Of course, it's for a shoulder injury and not for his mediocre play, but that's picking hairs. Shoulder injuries are bad, so Mark Melancon has the inside shot at being a closer all year. He's not without his own flaws, but his strikeout rate upside is better, and he's been pitching well this year. If he falters, groundballer Wilton Lopez will showcase his excellent control.
Frank Francisco is the closer in Toronto, says his manager, but Jon Rauch will get the occasional chance. Also, Frankie Frank is very combustible since he's such a fly-ball pitcher - see his blown save Tuesday night due to a home run to Adrian Gonzalez. Keep Jon Rauch close, and if you have a spot to speculate for saves, he's still worth some attention. At the same time, Francisco is the better pitcher overall.
In Oakland, the closer is just of the interim variety, but boy did Brian Fuentes owners get some bang for their buck. He's still ownable because Andrew Bailey still hasn't begun his rehab stint.
It hasn't been pretty, but Eduardo Sanchez is getting most of the chances in St. Louis right now. Fernando Salas is probably better cast as a capable backup, and Sanchez owns some nasty stuff if he can continue to corral it and develop some consistency. Focus on those two pitchers and ignore the fact that the Cardinals' GM was talking about getting Ryan Franklin getting save opportunities this year. Mitchell Boggs seems to have lost his chance before he really had it.

<!--RW--><CENTER>* * * * * * * * * *</CENTER>


Injured


Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies (elbow)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (shoulder)

Comment:
David Aardsma might be on his way to Tommy John surgery, so hold him for another few days if you can, but don't count on him returning. Andrew Bailey is throwing bullpens, but the team is working quick-sand-slow with him and he might throw another before going out on rehab.
Brad Lidge is only six days into his throwing program, but he says he feels much stronger and is optimistic about a mid-June return. If he's available and you've got a DL spot, might as well put a future closer on your team.
Brandon Lyon? He's droppable. He's just now starting the same process that Brad Lidge did - they both have rotator cuff issues. Even when he returns, if Mark Melancon has been doing well, it's unclear that he will get his old job back. He was a mediocre closer at best when healthy.
Jonathan Broxton was once a great closer, and maybe six weeks will help him get his velocity back. Just because of his upside, he's more of a stash than a trash.

The Deposed:
Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis

His GM wants him to close again, so it's worth noting that Ryan Franklin may yet get another save chance. Doesn't seem likely, but sometimes a GM gets what he wants on his own team. Joe Nathan's velocity is inching it's way back to 94 and he's been more effective of late. He's only been scored on once in his last five appearances, with six strikeouts and two walks in those 4 2/3 innings. The Twins strike me as a loyal organization that just might reward him for sticking with it.

<CENTER>* * * * * * * * * *</CENTER>

The Steals Department

Since Travis Snider was sent down, Rajai Davis is playing most days in the Toronto outfield. He stole 91 bases over the last two years, at an 80% success rate. That's elite, even if the rest of his game is lacking. It's hard to look at his sub-mendoza batting average right now and see opportunity, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .250 right now. That number trends to .300 across baseball, and he's speedy enough that his own personal number should be higher even. Consider him very, very likely to hit at least .270 going forward, with at least a 40-steal pace, and if you're lucky enough to find him on your waiver wire, snag him now.

With Rick Ankiel on the DL with a sprained wrist, Roger Bernadina is a temporary add in deep leagues for his speed. Really, even once Ankiel returns, it might make sense for the team to find some playing time for The Shark. He strikes out a little too often to have a great batting average, and he doesn't have great power, but his defense and speed make him a real-life asset on the field. He could hit for a mediocre batting average and steal some bags, at least for the next couple of weeks. Go shark hunting on your waiver wire if you really need a speed boost in your deep league.
 

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Top waiver-wire replacement options

Tristan H. Cockcroft


The replacement game is a tough one to win.

It's a question frequently posed in my chats -- "Who do I sign to replace so-and-so injured superstar?" -- and it's not one easily answered, certainly not within the limited amount of time we have to answer chat questions. Finding suitable short-term replacements is a complicated exercise, requires careful consideration of a wide range of candidates deep down the free-agent list, and warrants more than a flippant, couple-words-long remark.


This season, one in which a slew of All-Star-caliber talent currently resides on the disabled list, that's even more true than it usually is. Scrolling big league DLs, I can comprise an entire All-Star team of injured players:


C: Joe Mauer (average draft position: 25.7, No. 92 on 2010 Player Rater, 17 in 2009)
1B: Kendrys Morales (ADP: 83.6, No. 46 on 2009 PR)
2B: Chase Utley (ADP: 65.8, No. 25 on 2009 PR)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (ADP: 22.4, No. 55 on 2010 PR)
SS: Rafael Furcal (ADP: 141.0, No. 129 on 2010 PR)
OF: Josh Hamilton (ADP: 18.5, No. 6 on 2010 PR)
OF: Nelson Cruz (ADP: 27.0, No. 54 on 2010 PR)
OF: Delmon Young (ADP: 87.5, No. 56 on 2010 PR)
More notables: 3B Pablo Sandoval (ADP: 110.6, No. 51 on 2009 PR), OF Vernon Wells (ADP: 129.4, No. 81 on 2010 PR)


Naturally, when you lose a player like one of the ones above, your immediate reaction might be to acquire his real-life replacement. Fantasy owners understandably gravitate toward that strategy; perhaps we do it because that's the obvious choice in many situations in fantasy sports: grabbing the replacement closer, signing the replacement running back or adding the replacement goaltender. In deeper leagues -- AL- and NL-only in particular -- that's often the only choice, being that playing time is so critical in those formats.


But real-life subs aren't always the answer. Sometimes, the proper response is to grab a player from some other team, one who has been overlooked, one who might be quite a bit more talented, one who might even serve you some purpose even after your injured superstar returns. (To put that another way, if David Wright were to get hurt, are you really going to race to the waiver wire to sign someone like Chin-Lung Hu or Justin Turner?)


This is where today's "Hit Parade" comes in.


Granted the space to provide an in-depth analysis of fill-in candidates, let's take a look at some of my favorite picks, players who could be as valuable as short-term options as they are speculative long-term adds even for teams with no injuries at all. These are players available in at least 75 percent of ESPN standard leagues. Since we went "All-Star team" format for the injured players, it only makes sense to pick this as an "All-Star team" of subs:


Catcher: Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies (14.1 percent owned). I'm of the mind that catchers endure loooooooooooong career adjustment periods -- hello, Matt Wieters -- and Iannetta's sure has been lengthy, six seasons and counting. Two glimmers of hope, however: He has a 19.4 percent walk rate and 9.6 percent swing-and-miss rate (per FanGraphs), so perhaps he's beginning to figure out this whole, newfangled "plate discipline" thing. I love his power potential and would start him every time the Rockies played a home game. Even deeper: Hank Conger (0.9) and David Ross (0.1).


First base: Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels (16.5 percent owned). He hasn't stopped hitting since spring training opened, and Kendrys Morales' injury issues scare me to death. (I seriously considered dropping Morales from my top 125 entirely.) Exploiting Trumbo's matchups versus lefties -- .353/.389/.676 rates against them -- is smart, and I'm not so sure those at-bats will go away even after the Angels get both Morales and Vernon Wells back. Even deeper: Brandon Belt (2.5) -- I bet he's recalled soon -- and Casey Kotchman (0.2).


Second base: Scott Sizemore, Detroit Tigers (6.3 percent owned). Second base is where the pickings get slimmer, but Sizemore, a once-top prospect who struggled during his rookie 2010, was off to a tremendous start for Triple-A Toledo, batting .408/.495/.605 before his recall. That brings his career Triple-A rates to .315/.392/.487 in 170 games, and here's what I wonder: What if the broken ankle he suffered during the 2009 Arizona Fall League was mostly responsible for his slow start last season? I'll take that chance, at least on a short-term basis. Even deeper: Daniel Murphy (4.4).


Third base: Mike Fontenot, San Francisco Giants (4.9 percent owned). If you own Sandoval, Fontenot is an obvious choice, and I've been suggesting Fontenot as a sub for those in deeper leagues for a couple of weeks now. This doesn't mean Fontenot is exciting; he's a "sub" through and through, the kind of guy who won't hurt you in the short term and might even chip in a counting number or two. Look at his track record: He was a .291/.366/.437 lifetime minor league hitter and has batted .273 in 130 games between this and last season. What's so bad about that? Even deeper: Greg Dobbs (2.2) and Daniel Descalso (0.1).



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Albert Pujols, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Miguel Cabrera, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Braun, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joey Votto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Troy Tulowitzki, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Robinson Cano, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Kemp, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Bautista, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adrian Gonzalez, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Rodriguez, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Holliday, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Evan Longoria, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Teixeira, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Wright, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hanley Ramirez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Howard, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Prince Fielder, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Reyes, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Upton, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Gonzalez, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carl Crawford, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shin-Soo Choo, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Youkilis, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Curtis Granderson, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adrian Beltre, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dustin Pedroia, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andrew McCutchen, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rickie Weeks, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hunter Pence, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kinsler, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Heyward, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Paul Konerko, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Drew Stubbs, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Phillips, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ichiro Suzuki, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Victor Martinez, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shane Victorino, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">B.J. Upton, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nelson Cruz, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andre Ethier, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Elvis Andrus, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Lance Berkman, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jayson Werth, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ben Zobrist, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Young, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jay Bruce, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Stanton, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Rasmus, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Buster Posey, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Hamilton, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Bourn, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Ortiz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Uggla, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Young, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Grady Sizemore, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Dunn, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Howard Kendrick, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Jones, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Quentin, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joe Mauer, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Rios, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Martin Prado, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jimmy Rollins, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Gordon, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Stephen Drew, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Neil Walker, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Billy Butler, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Santana, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ike Davis, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Lind, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rajai Davis, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alfonso Soriano, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Coco Crisp, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Jeter, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Zimmerman, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bobby Abreu, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexei Ramirez, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chase Utley, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Placido Polanco, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Logan Morrison, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Torii Hunter, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Starlin Castro, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gaby Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Tabata, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian McCann, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Corey Hart, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Markakis, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Coghlan, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Damon, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Roberts, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Beltran, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>106 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vladimir Guerrero, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Desmond, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Hill, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Juan Pierre, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Morneau, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chipper Jones, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>104 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aramis Ramirez, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Russell Martin, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>102 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Gardner, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>103 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aubrey Huff, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>104 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Delmon Young, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>105 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Casey McGehee, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>106 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Smoak, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>121 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Swisher, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>109 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>108 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Pablo Sandoval, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>109 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Kubel, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>103 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>110 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Orlando Cabrera, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>108 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Francoeur, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>112 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kelly Johnson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>110 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>113 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Denard Span, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>114 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Bay, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>115 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>115 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dexter Fowler, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>116 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kendrys Morales, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>117 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Reynolds, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>112 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>118 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Willingham, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>119 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jed Lowrie, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>102 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>120 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gordon Beckham, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>121 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Wieters, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>123 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>122 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rafael Furcal, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>123 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Napoli, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>119 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>124 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Joyce, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>125 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>125 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chone Figgins, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Shortstop: Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics (0.7 percent owned). Yes, it gets this bad at shortstop. It's a dry, crusty landscape, a desert sans oases, so understand that "replacement level" means an entirely different thing at this position than, say, even catcher. Pennington is here because of his stolen-base potential; though he has been caught (5) more often than successfully stolen (4) so far, he was 29-for-34 in that department in 2010. You could do a lot worse from a fill-in. Even deeper: Jerry Hairston Jr. (0.0).


Outfield: Josh Willingham, Oakland Athletics (10.5 percent owned). I was shocked to learn he was available in that many ESPN leagues, because Willingham, always known for his power, is on pace for 26 homers and 96 RBIs. In his career, he has averaged 25 homers and 83 RBIs per 162 games played, and the primary knock against him is that he gets hurt a lot. He's healthy now, so why isn't he owned in more leagues?


Outfield: Julio Borbon, Texas Rangers (21.8 percent owned). He's an ideal target for those seeking stolen bases, and fits the "sub" description because he's playing every day while Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton are out. Borbon is terribly streaky -- he batted .179/.250/.282 in his first 15 games -- but judging from his May returns (.367/.367/.467 in nine games), it seems that regular at-bats have done him some good.


Outfield: Roger Bernadina, Washington Nationals (0.2 percent owned). I'm a fan, I was during spring training and I've said on these pages before that I thought it was foolish for the Washington Nationals to demote him at the conclusion of spring training. Bernadina showed us last season that he has some pop (11 homers in 358 at-bats) and can steal a base (16 in 18 tries). With Rick Ankiel hurt and Michael Morse off to a poor start, everyday at-bats are his for the taking. Even deeper: Domonic Brown (3.3) -- he's raking in Triple-A -- and Eric Hinske (0.2).


Three up



Rajai Davis, Toronto Blue Jays: He was profiled in the April 20 "Hit Parade," classified an excellent buy-low despite at that time residing on the disabled list with an ankle injury. Davis remains a buy-low in the event his owners are concerned about either his .231/.286/.333 offensive rates in 10 games since activation, or the fact that he has been recently dropped from the leadoff to No. 9 spot in the Blue Jays' lineup. Frankly, this is a player in whom you invest for stolen bases first and foremost, and during that 10-game span, Davis has eight steals in 10 tries, a remarkable amount for this era. That April 20 column discussed the Blue Jays' new "run, run, run" strategy, and Davis benefits from it more than anyone: He has attempted steals on 63.2 percent of his opportunities (those opportunities as judged by Baseball-Reference.com), compared to 33.2 percent entering 2011, and his Blue Jays as a team have attempted steals a major league-leading 10.6 percent of the time. Davis could steal you 50 bases … from this point forward.

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: Baby steps, yes, but Utley's 1-for-4 performance during his first minor league rehabilitation game with Class A Clearwater on Tuesday represents perhaps his most significant such step in his comeback from a knee injury. Remember, it wasn't too long ago his entire season was threatened; at the same time, let's not forget that it might take but one significant setback for him to succumb to season-ending surgery. Utley can be afforded 20 days' rehab per baseball rules, so the Phillies will face a decision on him by Memorial Day. Following that timetable, he could offer his patient owners four full months of production, and potential top-five second baseman production at that. And it's that upside alone that's responsible for vaulting him from off last week's ranks to a generous No. 80 ranking this week.


Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies: Sensing a Phillies middle-infielder theme this week? It's purely coincidental, as at the same time Utley has made considerable progress in his rehabilitation, Rollins finds himself in the midst of a 16-game hot streak during which he has .328/.434/.469 offensive rates, four stolen bases and 13 runs scored. It's his base stealing that most warrants our attention. After looking slower on the base paths the past couple of seasons -- he attempted steals 15.7 percent of the time in 2009 and a career-low 12.2 percent last year -- his number in that category has swelled to 17.0 percent so far in 2011, right in line with his 16.3 career rate. Maybe it's a philosophical shift by the Phillies, who have needed to be more creative this season to make up for a somewhat diminished offensive attack, and if so, Rollins would be the clear benefactor. It'd certainly help alleviate concerns that his career is headed in the wrong direction.


Three down



Sam Fuld, Tampa Bay Rays: A slump was bound to happen, as he wasn't about to be a batting-title contender forever. Still, who could have expected the kind of cold spell Fuld has slipped into the past three weeks? Beginning with a four-strikeout game -- the "Golden Sombrero" -- on April 24, Fuld has batted .071/.148/.125 in his past 13 games, his on-base percentage so poor that he hasn't even attempted a stolen base during that time. Steals, plus decent on-base ability, were the primary reasons you added Fuld, but he has quickly become a popular drop due to his slump. Defense is his one saving grace right now -- he's third among left fielders in UZR/150 (25.7) per FanGraphs -- but that means nothing to those in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. And with Desmond Jennings enjoying a .297/.417/.449 start in Triple-A, Fuld's job might soon be in jeopardy.


Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: That's two weeks in a row for Morneau in "Three down," but he deserves it, after going 4-for-25 (.160 AVG) with zero extra-base hits and six strikeouts in six games since last week's column. Most distressingly, to date, he's on pace to set career lows in several troubling peripheral categories: walk rate (6.8 percent), isolated power (.083), line-drive rate (15.4 percent) and infield popup rate (14.6 percent), per FanGraphs. The pop-ups are distressing, as is this: According to Inside Edge, he's a .179/.281/.232 hitter against fastballs so far, after batting .303, .249, .301 and .278 against that particular pitch in each of the past four seasons working backwards. He's also a .235/.235/.353 hitter against curveballs, after .389, .287, .360 and .372 the past four years. Clearly there is something wrong with Morneau, and in a standard ESPN league, it's understandable now if you've reached the drop point with him. He doesn't belong in any lineup in any league right now, and a comeback doesn't seem imminent.


Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates: So much for the white-hot start. Tabata, who had back-to-back homer-and-steal games April 8-9 as well as a four-hit effort on April 15, has since run ice cold: He's a .115/.203/.154 hitter who is 1-for-2 stealing bases in his past 16 games. Right-handers have been especially problematic for him this season, limiting him to .209/.298/.308 rates; per Inside Edge, he struggles with inside stuff, batting .207 on high-and-inside and .250 on low-and-inside offerings; and per FanGraphs he has hit ground balls on 96.4 percent of his batted balls that he has hit to the left side. I'm merely theorizing, but perhaps opponents have found a hole to exploit with Tabata: Bust him inside and hope he pulls a weak grounder. His slump looks like a classic "adjustment period" any way you evaluate it, so be patient, but understand this might not be an overnight thing.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Aroldis Chapman's ownership too high
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Eric Karabell


It was almost a bit painful to watch Cincinnati Reds left-hander Aroldis Chapman pitch Tuesday night. Then again, he wasn't really pitching, but rather throwing his intriguing fastballs and having no clue where the ball was going. That wasn't at all fun to see, because this guy is really, really good. Chapman walked three of the four hitters he faced and hit the other one, the scary Matt Downs. In his past three appearances, two of which he hasn't retired any hitters and covering one full inning (three outs), Chapman has issued eight walks. In his past two outings, he's thrown 33 pitches, 10 for strikes.


<OFFER>I'm not here to judge Chapman; something is clearly wrong with his command at this point, or perhaps he hasn't been truthful about his health. The Reds say demotion to the minor leagues is not an option at this time, but I'll tell you what, don't expect to see Chapman in the eighth-inning setup role anytime soon. For the season, Chapman has more walks than strikeouts, and that 1.73 WHIP has been well earned, even though opponents are hitting a mere .146 off him. These are odd splits.

Why am I blogging about Chapman, you might ask? Isn't it obvious that this young Cuban shouldn't be anywhere near an active fantasy roster? Well, this might seem obvious, but Chapman is actually owned in a whopping 28.3 percent of ESPN standard (10-team) leagues, and that's just ridiculously high for a pitcher that isn't starting or closing games, or to get to the point, pitching well. Tyler Clippard should be owned in 28 percent of leagues (he's at 9.4 percent). Chapman is owned because of name value, and right now he's not a factor in a positive sense.


Even when he does regain command -- and he should, because he's just way too talented to be this erratic -- he won't be worth owning in standard leagues. In the shallow leagues, maybe 10-15 middle relievers, or those not in line for saves, are worth owning. For the record, I'd call Washington Nationals bespectacled right-hander Clippard one of them, probably the best of them. He was terrific in 2010, and he's leading all relief pitchers -- even closers -- with 27 strikeouts. Middle relievers really shouldn't be drafted in standard leagues; you should wait a month and see who is pitching well, then add them if you need to control your team's ERA/WHIP, get some strikeouts and punt out a struggling starter like John Danks for a few weeks.


I would also roster the following middle men, in order of their strikeouts: Jonny Venters, Jesse Crain, Grant Balfour, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, Sean Marshall, Rafael Betancourt, Joel Peralta, Sergio Romo, Jason Motte and Luke Gregerson. And I'd consider, if they continue to thrive, Al Alburquerque, Jose Veras, Taylor Buchholz, Guillermo Mota, Antonio Bastardo, Aaron Crow, Matt Lindstrom and Vinnie Pestano.


Here are relief pitchers owned in way too many ESPN standard leagues (honestly, it's time to let them go):


Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles Angels (34.1 percent): Jordan Walden certainly seems secure in the closer role, and Rodney's WHIP in a season-plus with the Halos is 1.52.
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals (25.1): I'm not saying Eduardo Sanchez keeps the closer role, but I find it hard to believe Franklin is remotely in the picture. I can't even remember the last time he pitched.


Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees (10.7): I thought the only reasonable excuse for him pitching poorly had to be injury, and now we hear of a tender elbow. Uh oh. Look, he might have accrued 5-10 saves this season, but I'll take the under now. He's certainly not an asset with his peripheral numbers. It's not 2010 anymore. Good luck in the setup role, Joba Chamberlain.


Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays (9.1): This is why drafting him in March was a risk. Kyle Farnsworth has been very good, though walking in the winning run Tuesday could be a harbinger. Even if it is, lefty J.P. Howell is days away from joining the active roster to help out. McGee has a bright future, it's just very unlikely he's a closer this season. FYI, at Triple-A Durham, he's allowed three runs in 3 1/3 innings so far.


Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (9.0): Again, I can't say I see right-hander Sergio Santos picking up another 25 saves, but if/when he does run into trouble, Matt Thornton is far more accomplished (though probably hiding an injury himself) and Jesse Crain is thriving. Sale has pitched once since May 2, which seems odd, and very telling.


And in his own special category belongs former Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, owned in 77.7 percent of leagues. I don't see Broxton saving another 10 games this season. Perhaps injury/surgery is the culprit, but whatever the case, I wouldn't keep Broxton around in standard leagues. I do see the reasoning for patience, though: If healthy, he would be the closer. Vicente Padilla for 20 saves!
 

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Heyward, Soto, Ike Davis sidelined
Stephania Bell


Tuesday brought more news of injuries in baseball and more potential roster shuffling as a result.
Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: After exiting Tuesday night's game early when his symptoms worsened, Heyward revealed that his right shoulder has been giving him some trouble since the last two weeks of spring training.
Heyward's own words after the game, reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, gave the clearest picture of what he was experiencing. "It's been bothering me pretty good since spring training, and I've been playing through it, obviously," Heyward said. "But tonight, after my last AB I went to right field and my right hand started going numb. Right now I'd say it's starting to come up my forearm a little bit more, the numbness. The doctor is going to look at me before I go home, and I'm going to get an MRI on my shoulder Thursday."
Perhaps most notable was Heyward's admission that his swing has been affected by this injury since the start of the season. "It's not been a consistent swing," said Heyward. "It hasn't felt good, really, for any consistent period of time." Although he has been playing through the discomfort, Heyward indicated that the condition had taken a turn for the worse recently, with Tuesday being the first time he had experienced any numbness.
As Heyward waits to learn more about what is ailing him, it appears he will not be in the Braves lineup Wednesday. The presence of numbness hints at nerve involvement, but where the issue is originating from (neck/shoulder/forearm) is the question that needs to be answered. Without knowing the nuances of Heyward's specific signs and symptoms, there can only be speculation as to the source. Rather than go down that path, we will wait along with Heyward to see what the results of further testing yield. Fantasy owners should be prepared in the event that Heyward is forced to take some down time, particularly given that his symptoms seem to be going in the wrong direction.
Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs: It's one of the known risks that comes with the position. A catcher, trying to block a ball behind the plate, extends his legs like a wishbone and, just like the bone after making the wish, one side snaps. Soto was doing just that in the first inning of the Cubs game against the St. Louis Cardinals and injured his left groin. Manager Mike Quade summed it up simply after the game: "He did the splits to block a ball in the first inning, and the splits were not good." Soto is expected to undergo an MRI Wednesday and there is already talk of him hitting the disabled list. The Chicago Sun-Times reports Class AAA catcher Welington Castillo was removed after one at-bat from his minor league game Tuesday night in the event he is needed in Chicago. A groin strain of even the minor variety makes it difficult to be nimble or powerful behind the plate. The Cubs will have to hope that Soto's injury is indeed minor, but given his position, they are not likely to rush him back into service.
Ike Davis, OF, New York Mets: Thankfully for Davis, the injury he suffered Tuesday night does not appear to be as serious as it could have been. That said, the strained left calf Davis sustained when he and teammate David Wright collided while trying to make a play may cause him to miss some time. According to the New York Daily News, Davis was in a protective boot after the game and still in pain. How Davis feels when he takes his first steps Wednesday will likely be an indicator of whether this injury will sideline him for any length of time.
Update: ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reports that Davis returned to New York Wednesday for an MRI on his calf. For his part, Davis did not seem overly concerned saying, "I don't feel like it's that bad." The test results along with how Davis progresses over the next couple of days will indicate whether the injury will sideline him for any length of time.
David Aardsma, RP, Seattle Mariners: On Tuesday we noted that Aardsma had undergone an MRI on his stiff right (throwing) forearm. Later that night, we learned that Aardsma has a Grade 2 ulnar collateral ligament sprain and will be traveling to see Dr. Lewis Yocum for consultation. Whatever medical plans are in Aardsma's immediate future remains to be seen, but he won't be pitching anytime soon. This is indeed a tough break for a guy who was nearing a return to the mound following a January labral repair in his left hip.
 

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Homer Happy
I'm a man of my word. One month ago I said I would check in on Willie Bloomquist (who was owned in 74 percent of Y! leagues and 61.4 percent of ESPN.com leagues at the time) to see if he could maintain his early season production.

It's a little less fun to brag about this one since the man got hurt, but after my column was posted, he batted .211 over his final 19 at-bats before going on the disabled list. Small, perhaps even cheap victory, but I'll take it.

The most interesting part about this whole thing is that Bloomquist is still owned in 27 percent of Y! leagues and 15 percent of ESPN.com leagues. I guess we now know who stopped paying attention to their fantasy team after the first week of the season.

MIXED LEAGUES

Homer Bailey SP, Reds (Yahoo: 25 percent owned, ESPN: 21.5 percent)

Bailey, who began the year on the disabled list with a shoulder impingement, has been brilliant over his first two starts, allowing just one run while striking out 12 and walking one. Granted, both starts were against the Astros, but his early success isn't coming completely out of nowhere. The former 2004 first-round pick hinted at a breakthrough last season by posting a 3.55 ERA and 59/19 K/BB ratio over 10 starts after the All-Star break. Grab him now before he finally matches the hype.

Domonic Brown OF, Phillies (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 3.3 percent)

Here's one for the forward-thinking owners out there. Brown was forced to miss the beginning of the season due to hamate bone surgery, but he's off to a fantastic start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley during his rehab assignment, batting .353 (12-for-34) with two homers, two doubles and seven RBI. I didn't expect the power to rebound this quickly, but he could be knocking on the door for a callup to the majors before you know it.

Julio Borbon OF, Rangers (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 21.8 percent)

Rangers manager Ron Washington tweaked his starting lineup this week by moving Borbon into the leadoff spot. The 25-year-old center fielder has earned his way back into Washington's good graces by batting .387 (12-for-31) with one double, one triple, five RBI and four stolen bases over his last 10 games. Who knows how long Washington will stick with this current configuration, but don't sleep on Borbon's speed and run scoring potential.

Freddie Freeman 1B, Braves (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 30.4 percent)

Freeman's rookie season hasn't exactly begun with a bang, but at least he's showing some signs of breaking out of his slump. The 21-year-old first baseman is batting .296 (8-for-27) over his last eight games, including a home run against Cole Hamels last Sunday. Freeman has been batting sixth since mid-April and should be in a prime position to drive in runs moving forward. He's not a bad backup plan if you missed out on Eric Hosmer or have concerns about Ike Davis' calf injury.

Jamey Carroll 2B/3B/SS/OF, Dodgers (Yahoo: 14 percent owned, ESPN: 6.8 percent)

Don't look now, but Carroll has been one of the game's hottest hitters this month, batting .342 (13-for-38) with two doubles, six runs scored and a 4/5 K/BB ratio. He doesn't have any power, but is batting leadoff and offers some sneaky speed for a 37-year-old. Rafael Furcal won't begin his minor league rehab assignment until at least Saturday, so Carroll should continue to play everyday at least until sometime next week. The veteran utility man makes for a useful short-term play, especially with his handy multi-position eligibility.

Travis Wood SP, Reds (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 42.1 percent)

Wood has turned things around quite nicely by notching consecutive quality starts for the first time this season. Like his teammate Homer Bailey, both of the starts against the Astros, but the truth is that he was never as bad as his ERA suggested in the first place. Despite his ugly 5.28 ERA, the 24-year-old southpaw has a very healthy 40/14 K/BB ratio over 44 1/3 innings. Wood can't possibly have a .356 batting average on balls in play against him all season, so he's a prime buy-low target right now.

Jason Hammel SP, Rockies (Yahoo: 10 percent, ESPN: 23.4 percent)

Another one of my "Under the Radar Hurlers" from February, Hammel has an impressive 3.02 ERA over his first seven starts this season. The main difference for Hammel is that he has been able to pitch well with runners on base, which is something that he has struggled with in the past. His strikeouts are down a bit (5.44 K/9) from his career norm, but he has a solid chance of finishing with an ERA under 4.00 if he can finally manage to strand baserunners near the league average.

Mark Trumbo 1B, Angels (Yahoo: 16 percent owned, ESPN: 16.5 percent)

You probably heard the news by now that Kendrys Morales needs another ankle surgery and will miss the rest of the season. While it's a tough blow for the Angels and many fantasy owners, Trumbo should continue to see the majority of the playing time at first base moving forward. The 25-year-old found himself in a massive slump near the end of April, but is batting .355 with three homers and eight RBI over his last nine games. I'm a little concerned about his plate discipline (29/6 K/BB ratio) so far, but he's a pretty solid option in leagues that require a CI (corner infielder) spot.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Rick Porcello SP, Tigers (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 4.7 percent)

I'm somewhat amazed how Porcello continues to fly under the radar in mixed leagues. The 22-year-old right-hander has a 1.99 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed two runs or less in all of them. He's currently striking out batters at a career-high rate (5.83 K/9) while showing his usual solid command and a ground ball rate around 50 percent. No, Porcello isn't going to be a top tier fantasy starter, but he should absolutely be owned in more leagues right now.

James McDonald SP, Pirates (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 3.2 percent)

I included McDonald in my NL-only recommendations a few weeks back, but I had a feeling it wouldn't be long before he found his way back into relevancy in mixed leagues. The 26-year-old right-hander has allowed a grand total of two runs over his last three starts and matched a career-high with eight strikeouts in his last outing. His shaky command is still a bit worrisome, but he's looking a lot more like the pitcher who posted a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts after joining the Pirates last season. Give him a try against the Brewers on Friday night.


<!--RW-->


AL ONLY

Jarrod Dyson OF, Royals (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Fun fact about Dyson. He only has only appeared in 15 games this season, yet he already has nine stolen bases in nine attempts. Only four players in the American League have stolen more. The Royals have a nice little weapon here, so look for Dyson to continue to get opportunities on the basepaths, even as a pinch-runner late in games. If you're hurting for steals right now, he should absolutely be on your radar.

Casey Kotchman 1B, Rays (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

There's a certain stigma attached to Kotchman because he doesn't fit the typical mold of a power-hitting first baseman, but AL-only owners should use that reputation to their advantage. The 28-year-old is batting .352/.425/.451 over his first 80 plate appearances this season, including a .429 batting average (9-for-21) over the past week. Sure, his lofty batting average on balls in play has helped inflate his numbers, but he simply needs to be owned in more leagues right now.

Dustin Ackley 2B/OF, Mariners (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 0.3 percent)

Ackley got off to a bit of a slow start this season with Triple-A Tacoma, but has really turned in it on in May by batting .295/.407/.568 with three homers, nine RBI and two stolen bases over 44 at-bats. He'll likely never be a big power guy in the big leagues, but that's not really necessary at second base, anyway. At his peak, what we'll likely see is someone who hits for a solid batting average with a high on-base percentage and double-digit stolen bases. The Mariners probably want to see a little more consistency first, but he should make his major league debut sometime this summer.

Louis Coleman RP, Royals (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

This is purely speculative, but when you're searching for saves in an AL-only league, sometimes that's just fine. Coleman notched his first career save in Wednesday's extra-inning win over the Yankees on Wednesday night and looked pretty good doing so. While it was interesting that he got the call over Jeremy Jeffress, Coleman is also intriguing because of how bad Joakim Soria has looked this season. Something isn't quite right there, so I'd give Coleman or maybe even Aaron Crow (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 0.8 percent) a stash just in case there's some sort of injury.

NL ONLY

Mark DeRosa OF, Giants (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Giants manager Bruce Bochy plans to mix and match on the left side of his infield while Pablo Sandoval recovers from hamate bone surgery, so DeRosa is at least in position to at least share playing time with Miguel Tejada at third base. This is obviously good news for DeRosa's fantasy value, as he is currently only outfield-eligible in most formats. The veteran utility man has a .272/.341/.418 lifetime batting line, so he should be able to contribute as long as his surgically-repaired left wrist is healthy.

Josh Collmenter RP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Collmenter has really come out of nowhere. The 25-year-old right-hander wasn't included among Baseball America's top 30 prospects for the organization over the winter, but he has a 1.29 ERA and 11/1 K/BB ratio over his first 14 major league innings, all in relief. Collmenter doesn't throw particularly hard, but features an deceptive over-the-top delivery and a quality changeup. He's taking Barry Enright's turn in the starting rotation this Saturday against the Dodgers, so go ahead and give him a try in case he sticks.

Laynce Nix OF, Nationals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.3 percent)

Nix made his eighth straight start in the outfield Wednesday night and went 3-for-5 with an RBI single, a double and a run scored. He's found extra playing time recently because of Mike Morse's bum knee, but it's going to be awful difficult for Jim Riggleman to take him out of the lineup, especially with the Nats hurting for offense. Keep in mind that Nix is dramatically better against right-handed pitching during his career (.743 OPS compared to .518 OPS against southpaws), but he should do fine if used appropriately.

Anthony Rizzo 1B, Padres (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Brad Hawpe has at least begun to hit the ball lately, but it's clear that Rizzo is on the fast track to the big leagues. Rizzo, who was acquired from the Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, is batting .393/.461/.746 with 10 homers and 43 RBI over his first 31 games with Triple-A Tucson. He's currently dealing with a bruised left hand, but it's not believed to be anything serious. I'm not completely convinced he's ready for the big leagues, but stash him just in case he gets a call-up somewhere around Memorial Day.
 

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Should you cut demoted closers?
Tristan H. Cockcroft

Patience is something we stress often on these pages. Impatience is sometimes equally valuable.

In no other area, perhaps, is that more true in the saves market. You'll hear us advise "don't pay for saves" until we're blue in the face, and surely you've heard the counterarguments that top closers are absolutely worth the investment. Perhaps there's no true "right" answer, and both sides have valid points. It'd hardly surprise if so; one of the reasons saves is such a tricky market to read is that an incumbent closer is a valuable closer, and the minute he loses his job, he is, in the majority of instances, completely and utterly without value. There is no in-between.


It's that ping-ponging of market values that presents an interesting -- and often understated -- discussion topic, one relevant to either side of the debate: Why aren't fantasy owners as quick to adapt to market trends as major league teams?


For example, if you participate in a competitive league with aggressive owners, one preferably without transaction caps and with deeper benches, surely you've noticed the tendency of owners to snatch up the "next-in-line-to-close," often well in advance of his ascension to the role. We're oh-so-quick to grab fresh, brand-new saves off the waiver wire, for example the Houston Astros' Mark Melancon (owned in 52.6 percent of ESPN leagues) and St. Louis Cardinals' Eduardo Sanchez (34.8 percent), two players whose managers have almost purposely been vague about whether they're actually the ninth-inning guy.


We're not, unfortunately, nearly so willing to give up on ex-closers.


Perhaps it's the lure of historical stats, affection for players who have helped us in the past, or the same sort of twisted obsession that has managers so often reliant on the fabled "proven closer." Whatever the cause, sometimes it's time to cut our losses, to mirror the real-life team's demotion decision with the player's outright release. As Sean Connery might have said to Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones tried desperately to cling to that Holy Grail of Ryan Franklin saves, "Indiana … let it go."

Franklin is the perfect example of the ex-closer gobbling up all too many fantasy roster spots; he remains owned in 23.8 percent of ESPN leagues, despite ranking as the sixth-worst relief pitcher-eligible player on the Player Rater (279th out of 284). While St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa might be wholly unpredictable with his bullpen management, not to mention that no other Cardinals reliever -- the aforementioned Sanchez included -- has emerged as a clear full-time replacement, Franklin is easily the least deserving of another save opportunity the remainder of the year of anyone within his bullpen.


Consider Franklin's numbers before and after he lost his closer job, following his fourth blown save of the season on April 17:


Through April 17: 6 G, 11.57 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 1.00 K/BB, .364 BAA
April 18 forward: 5 G, 8.22 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 1.50 K/BB, .382 BAA


That can scarcely be considered improvement, and astute fantasy owners probably realize that Franklin's most recent appearance on Wednesday was that of mop-up reliever; he entered in the fourth inning with the Cardinals down 6-1 and threw three innings and 54 pitches of four-run, seven-hit baseball. Franklin's pitches are as hittable as ever -- his 4.0 percent swing-and-miss rate represents a career low -- and while there's no clear answer to the question, "Who's the Cardinals' closer," there's a clear answer to the question, "Who's it not, nor might ever be again?"


Franklin isn't alone … but while his is perhaps the easiest call of 2011's ex-closers-gone-bad, some haven't quite yet reached cutting-floor status. Working backwards by ownership percentage in ESPN leagues, let's take a look at some others:


Andrew Bailey (94.1 percent owned): It's probably the worst time to cut Bailey, being that if you kept him this long, you might as well wait through his rehabilitation stint, which, according to the Oakland Athletics' official website, should begin in extended spring training on Saturday. Bailey still has the most generous ranking in "Relief Efforts" of anyone profiled this week, primarily because the Athletics' closer job is his when healthy; Brian Fuentes' 4.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP show that he's hardly a roadblock. I've got one worry, however: Bailey admitted to the team's website that he still feels "a little achiness," so the prospect of a sudden setback looms. He's approaching the two-month point since he initially got hurt, and if a setback means another two months lost … Verdict: Keep.



TOP 75 RELIEF PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 75 relief pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Wilson, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mariano Rivera, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Marmol, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Heath Bell, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Neftali Feliz, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Huston Street, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joakim Soria, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Perez, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Papelbon, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Valverde, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Craig Kimbrel, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Leo Nunez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Rodriguez, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joel Hanrahan, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Drew Storen, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Cordero, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">J.J. Putz, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Axford, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Farnsworth, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jordan Walden, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Capps, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon League, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Gregg, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sergio Santos, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andrew Bailey, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Frank Francisco, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vicente Padilla, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Madson, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonny Venters, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Rauch, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Fuentes, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Melancon, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Adams, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Eduardo Sanchez, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Koji Uehara, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Fernando Salas, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tyler Clippard, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joba Chamberlain, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brad Lidge, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joe Nathan, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Thornton, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Luke Gregerson, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mitchell Boggs, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daniel Bard, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aroldis Chapman, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Lyon, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sean Marshall, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Fernando Rodney, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hong-Chih Kuo, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Hernandez, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Sale, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Broxton, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sean Burnett, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wilton Lopez, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ernesto Frieri, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Crow, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian Sanches, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rafael Soriano, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joel Peralta, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Contreras, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Darren Oliver, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Lindstrom, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Al Alburquerque, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rafael Betancourt, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Sergio Romo, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Aardsma, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Villanueva, Tor </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Veras, Pit </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Grant Balfour, Oak </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Scott Downs, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Motte, StL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edward Mujica, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Guillermo Mota, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vinnie Pestano, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Masset, Cin </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Jonathan Broxton (73.7 percent owned): He has a bone spur in his pitching elbow and won't even resume throwing for another two weeks, and Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told the Los Angeles Times that Broxton might be out six weeks total. Considering how poorly Broxton has thrown since last June, including a noticeable decrease in velocity, it's not unfair to say that Vicente Padilla might be best suited to close for the Dodgers from now through October, a point initially made in the April 28 edition of "Relief Efforts." Broxton probably will return in a lower-pressure middle-relief role, meaning you'll burn more than a month of time on your DL or bench, then a bench spot until he proves ready to close once more -- which might never happen in 2011. Verdict: Keep, but only if your league affords you the DL space to do so.


Brandon Lyon (40.6 percent owned): He has a partially torn rotator cuff and is expected to miss more than the 15-day disabled-list minimum, and the prospect of surgery looms large for Lyon. As hinted in last week's "Relief Efforts," Melancon has the skills to close -- and now enough time to prove it -- so we could be a couple of weeks away from Lyon being shut out of the role for good. There's one saving grace with Lyon: He's owed $10.75 million between 2011 and 2012, or "closer money," and his success in the role in 2010 might mean he hasn't saved his final game for the Astros. His upside, however, hardly warrants burning a useful roster spot waiting. Verdict: Cut, barring, of course, extensive DL space.


Joe Nathan (37.7 percent owned): Here's the guy whose reputation almost assuredly will keep him on a slew of fantasy rosters, as Nathan was easily one of the three most effective closers of the "aughts" before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2010. He was, however, awful during the spring and early regular season, his fastball velocity in the regular year averaging 91.4 mph (down from 93.9 career), his swing-and-miss rate 7.2 percent (down from 13.5 career), both of those per FanGraphs, and his walk rate 5.84 per nine innings (up from 3.48 career). Not every pitcher makes an instant recovery from such a significant surgery, and in Nathan's case, he was probably pushed too hard. But of all pitchers on this list, his long-term season prospects are the most encouraging. In three appearances in May he has 3⅓ shutout innings, a 3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and four ground balls in eight total balls in play, nearer to "vintage Nathan" numbers. Fill-in Matt Capps, meanwhile, had an ugly blown save on Wednesday and has a 6.10 ERA in his past 10 appearances. I remain steadfast in my belief that Memorial Day is the over/under for a swap of the roles. Verdict: Keep.


Fernando Rodney (33.3 percent owned): That Jordan Walden has blown two of his past three saves with an 11.25 ERA during that four-game span might have Rodney backers believing a switch is inevitable. But why? Rodney has a 7.36 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his past eight appearances, and has been scored upon in five of them. He also has a hideous 5.82 walks-per-nine ratio, the second worst rate of his career. Heck, Scott Downs is a lot more deserving of a look than Rodney, if the Los Angeles Angels determine they need a switch. Verdict: Cut.


Brad Lidge (32.8 percent owned): He's as volatile as closers come, so either guess is a fair one, but Lidge has resumed playing catch and told Buster Olney recently that he's targeting mid-June for his return from a rotator cuff injury. Fantasy owners' patience with Lidge might seem inexplicable, but in their defense: He was lights out the second half of 2010 (21 saves, 2.10 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies have made no secret they prefer Ryan Madson in a setup role rather than closer. I've said in this column before that I'm a Madson backer; at the same time this is an almost mandatory handcuff. Verdict: Keep.


David Aardsma (28.9 percent owned): The Seattle Mariners maintained all year that a healthy Aardsma was their closer; then he suffered setback after setback before being diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of his ulnar collateral ligament -- you know, the "Tommy John surgery" ligament -- this week. We might be hours away from Aardsma being sent to the operating table, but even if he's not, what more does Brandon League need to do to prove he's closer-worthy? Verdict: Cut.


Jose Contreras (28.7 percent owned): It's a race as to whether Contreras or Lidge returns to the Phillies quicker, Contreras' timetable currently a couple of weeks ahead of Lidge's, but when I say I believe in Madson, I mean I believe in him over alternatives like Contreras. Contreras was fantastic in the closer role early this year; Madson has been even better, 5-for-5 with eight shutout innings in eight appearances since taking over. Verdict: Cut.


Understand, of course, that because it's the volatile saves market, even some of these calls can change in an instant. (Ask owners of anyone from either the Cardinals' or Dodgers' bullpens about that.) To return to the opening point, perhaps the answer is clear: Pick a side of the debate and stick to it … but be adaptable once the season starts.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Stat splits: Quentin raking ... on the road?
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Eric Karabell


I'm not the type of fantasy owner that moves hitters in and out of daily lineups depending on where the games are played. For example, if I own Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin, I'm generally leaving him active all the time and hoping for the best. Then again, by looking at home/road splits, we can sometimes gain an advantage by ascertaining key information about where a player might be more effective. It's a bit early in the season to rely on stat splits as gospel, but I've run across many split differentials that are quite interesting.


Quentin's home/road splits certainly fit that label. Most would assume he'd be raking in his home games at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field; after all, he is the major league leader in extra-base hits. In this case, however, Quentin actually has the largest discrepancy in road versus home OPS in baseball. That's right, he's raking on the road, with a cool 1.168 OPS, while at home he has been well below average (.586 OPS). This doesn't mean Quentin should be benched in home games, of course. On the contrary, I'd argue he will start hitting at home, while leveling off on the road. But ultimately, this suggests to me that his terrific start isn't a fluke. This is a proven slugger with some odd splits, but this information actually makes me trust him a bit more. He's going to hit at home.
Here are the top 10 hitters in road versus home OPS differential (thanks to Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN researcher Keith Hawkins), with a few notes afterward.
Better hitters on the road (2011)

These guys have the highest discrepancy between their road and home splits among qualified hitters.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Diff. </TH><TH>Player </TH><TH>Home OPS </TH><TH>Road OPS </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>-.582 </TD><TD>Carlos Quentin, OF, CWS </TD><TD>.586 </TD><TD>1.168 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.477 </TD><TD>Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA </TD><TD>.543 </TD><TD>1.020 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.475 </TD><TD>Geovany Soto, C, ChC </TD><TD>.491 </TD><TD>.966 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.461 </TD><TD>Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY </TD><TD>.760 </TD><TD>1.221 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.459 </TD><TD>Johnny Damon, OF, TB </TD><TD>.475 </TD><TD>.934 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.459 </TD><TD>Jonathan Herrera, 2B, Col. </TD><TD>.452 </TD><TD>.911 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.405 </TD><TD>Maicer Izturis, 2B/3B/SS, LAA </TD><TD>.642 </TD><TD>1.047 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.393 </TD><TD>Russell Martin, C, NYA </TD><TD>.688 </TD><TD>1.081 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.388 </TD><TD>Miguel Olivo, C, Sea. </TD><TD>.336 </TD><TD>.724 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.369 </TD><TD>Cliff Pennington, SS, Oak. </TD><TD>.436 </TD><TD>.805 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Some of these numbers do tell us something. For example, New York Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson is doing plenty of damage away from home; it's only a matter of time before he starts pelting line drives over the short right-field porch in the Bronx (as he did Wednesday night). Granderson entered Wednesday hitting 87 points better on the road, with seven of his 11 home runs. Please don't tell me this is one of those players who can't handle pressure, and that's why he's struggling at Yankee Stadium. Granderson's OPS was 109 points higher at home last season. I'm buying a career best in home runs from him this season.
Then there's Colorado Rockies second baseman Jonathan Herrera. He's not a power hitter by any means, but that's a crazy low OPS for Coors Field. I've suspected for weeks Herrera really isn't a fluke, though his value is tied to stolen bases and runs scored as much as batting average. … A pair of Los Angeles Angels haven't done much hitting at home, but now that Kendrys Morales is done for the season, Mark Trumbo isn't in any jeopardy of losing playing time, so he'd better start delivering at home. And just look at what Seattle Mariners catcher Miguel Olivo -- a cleanup hitter these days! -- is doing at Safeco Field. A .336 OPS is hard to believe. Granted, you don't want this guy in a one-active-catcher mixed league, home or road, but if you have to choose in a daily league or for weekly options when the entire schedule to come is all home or road, at least you know how to evaluate him.
Let's also look at the biggest discrepancy for home versus road splits, and I really can't say I'm surprised about the top guy on this list. Then again, I wouldn't consider sitting him anywhere. Perhaps he hits another 50-plus home runs this season.
Better hitters at home (2011)

These guys have the highest discrepancy between their home and road splits among qualified hitters.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Diff. </TH><TH>Player </TH><TH>Home OPS </TH><TH>Road OPS </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>+.780 </TD><TD>Jose Bautista, OF, Tor. </TD><TD>1.772 </TD><TD>.992 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.756 </TD><TD>Pat Burrell, OF, SF </TD><TD>1.314 </TD><TD>.558 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.622 </TD><TD>Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM </TD><TD>1.187 </TD><TD>.565 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.555 </TD><TD>Chris Young, OF, Ari. </TD><TD>.967 </TD><TD>.412 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.551 </TD><TD>Matt LaPorta, 1B, Cle. </TD><TD>1.109 </TD><TD>.560 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.465 </TD><TD>Raul Ibanez, OF, Phi. </TD><TD>.841 </TD><TD>.376 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.460 </TD><TD>Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Bal. </TD><TD>.900 </TD><TD>.440 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.452 </TD><TD>Travis Hafner, DH, Cle. </TD><TD>1.189 </TD><TD>.737 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.447 </TD><TD>Alex Rios, OF, CWS </TD><TD>.823 </TD><TD>.376 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.423 </TD><TD>Justin Upton, OF, Ari. </TD><TD>1.035 </TD><TD>.612 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


What's surprising about this list is that Pat Burrell has been so good at spacious AT&T park. Then again, the San Francisco Giants as a team entered Wednesday with near-identical cumulative figures at home and on the road, and actually hit considerably better in home games in 2010. Go figure. I learned something today, that if you own a Giant, don't assume he won't hit well at home. Burrell won't hit .393 all year at home, but he also shouldn't hit .169 on the road. He's not a great option in standard leagues, but if you're playing the daily card, don't fear his home starts. … I'd say the same about New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran. Wait, someone is flourishing at Citi Field? Better tell David Wright.
Jose Bautista is just a monster. Never sit him, obviously. For the record, he hit 33 of his 54 home runs at Rogers Centre last season, though 21 road home runs isn't exactly a problem. The two names at the bottom of this list are also interesting. I haven't written about White Sox outfielder Alex Rios, who is off to a brutal start, but we can see here he's struggling really only on the road. A season ago his OPS was near identical at home and on the road, so as with Quentin, I'm taking the positive approach and presuming Rios will level off a bit at home, but more than make up for it on the road. Buy low. … And Justin Upton has always had significant home-versus-road splits in his numbers, with a career OPS 187 points worse on the road. If he weren't annually a threat for 30 home runs -- someday it will happen, he's only 23! -- it might make me sit him on the road. I just can't, though. It's also worth noting he does have more stolen bases in road games over the course of his career.
I'm not the type of fantasy owner that moves hitters in and out of daily lineups depending on where the games are played. For example, if I own Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin, I'm generally leaving him active all the time and hoping for the best. Then again, by looking at home/road splits, we can sometimes gain an advantage by ascertaining key information about where a player might be more effective. It's a bit early in the season to rely on stat splits as gospel, but I've run across many split differentials that are quite interesting.


Quentin's home/road splits certainly fit that label. Most would assume he'd be raking in his home games at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field; after all, he is the major league leader in extra-base hits. In this case, however, Quentin actually has the largest discrepancy in road versus home OPS in baseball. That's right, he's raking on the road, with a cool 1.168 OPS, while at home he has been well below average (.586 OPS). This doesn't mean Quentin should be benched in home games, of course. On the contrary, I'd argue he will start hitting at home, while leveling off on the road. But ultimately, this suggests to me that his terrific start isn't a fluke. This is a proven slugger with some odd splits, but this information actually makes me trust him a bit more. He's going to hit at home.
Here are the top 10 hitters in road versus home OPS differential (thanks to Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN researcher Keith Hawkins), with a few notes afterward.
Better hitters on the road (2011)

These guys have the highest discrepancy between their road and home splits among qualified hitters.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Diff. </TH><TH>Player </TH><TH>Home OPS </TH><TH>Road OPS </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>-.582 </TD><TD>Carlos Quentin, OF, CWS </TD><TD>.586 </TD><TD>1.168 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.477 </TD><TD>Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA </TD><TD>.543 </TD><TD>1.020 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.475 </TD><TD>Geovany Soto, C, ChC </TD><TD>.491 </TD><TD>.966 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.461 </TD><TD>Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY </TD><TD>.760 </TD><TD>1.221 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.459 </TD><TD>Johnny Damon, OF, TB </TD><TD>.475 </TD><TD>.934 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.459 </TD><TD>Jonathan Herrera, 2B, Col. </TD><TD>.452 </TD><TD>.911 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.405 </TD><TD>Maicer Izturis, 2B/3B/SS, LAA </TD><TD>.642 </TD><TD>1.047 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.393 </TD><TD>Russell Martin, C, NYA </TD><TD>.688 </TD><TD>1.081 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.388 </TD><TD>Miguel Olivo, C, Sea. </TD><TD>.336 </TD><TD>.724 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>-.369 </TD><TD>Cliff Pennington, SS, Oak. </TD><TD>.436 </TD><TD>.805 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Some of these numbers do tell us something. For example, New York Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson is doing plenty of damage away from home; it's only a matter of time before he starts pelting line drives over the short right-field porch in the Bronx (as he did Wednesday night). Granderson entered Wednesday hitting 87 points better on the road, with seven of his 11 home runs. Please don't tell me this is one of those players who can't handle pressure, and that's why he's struggling at Yankee Stadium. Granderson's OPS was 109 points higher at home last season. I'm buying a career best in home runs from him this season.
Then there's Colorado Rockies second baseman Jonathan Herrera. He's not a power hitter by any means, but that's a crazy low OPS for Coors Field. I've suspected for weeks Herrera really isn't a fluke, though his value is tied to stolen bases and runs scored as much as batting average. … A pair of Los Angeles Angels haven't done much hitting at home, but now that Kendrys Morales is done for the season, Mark Trumbo isn't in any jeopardy of losing playing time, so he'd better start delivering at home. And just look at what Seattle Mariners catcher Miguel Olivo -- a cleanup hitter these days! -- is doing at Safeco Field. A .336 OPS is hard to believe. Granted, you don't want this guy in a one-active-catcher mixed league, home or road, but if you have to choose in a daily league or for weekly options when the entire schedule to come is all home or road, at least you know how to evaluate him.
Let's also look at the biggest discrepancy for home versus road splits, and I really can't say I'm surprised about the top guy on this list. Then again, I wouldn't consider sitting him anywhere. Perhaps he hits another 50-plus home runs this season.
Better hitters at home (2011)

These guys have the highest discrepancy between their home and road splits among qualified hitters.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Diff. </TH><TH>Player </TH><TH>Home OPS </TH><TH>Road OPS </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>+.780 </TD><TD>Jose Bautista, OF, Tor. </TD><TD>1.772 </TD><TD>.992 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.756 </TD><TD>Pat Burrell, OF, SF </TD><TD>1.314 </TD><TD>.558 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.622 </TD><TD>Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM </TD><TD>1.187 </TD><TD>.565 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.555 </TD><TD>Chris Young, OF, Ari. </TD><TD>.967 </TD><TD>.412 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.551 </TD><TD>Matt LaPorta, 1B, Cle. </TD><TD>1.109 </TD><TD>.560 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.465 </TD><TD>Raul Ibanez, OF, Phi. </TD><TD>.841 </TD><TD>.376 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.460 </TD><TD>Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Bal. </TD><TD>.900 </TD><TD>.440 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.452 </TD><TD>Travis Hafner, DH, Cle. </TD><TD>1.189 </TD><TD>.737 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.447 </TD><TD>Alex Rios, OF, CWS </TD><TD>.823 </TD><TD>.376 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>+.423 </TD><TD>Justin Upton, OF, Ari. </TD><TD>1.035 </TD><TD>.612 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


What's surprising about this list is that Pat Burrell has been so good at spacious AT&T park. Then again, the San Francisco Giants as a team entered Wednesday with near-identical cumulative figures at home and on the road, and actually hit considerably better in home games in 2010. Go figure. I learned something today, that if you own a Giant, don't assume he won't hit well at home. Burrell won't hit .393 all year at home, but he also shouldn't hit .169 on the road. He's not a great option in standard leagues, but if you're playing the daily card, don't fear his home starts. … I'd say the same about New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran. Wait, someone is flourishing at Citi Field? Better tell David Wright.
Jose Bautista is just a monster. Never sit him, obviously. For the record, he hit 33 of his 54 home runs at Rogers Centre last season, though 21 road home runs isn't exactly a problem. The two names at the bottom of this list are also interesting. I haven't written about White Sox outfielder Alex Rios, who is off to a brutal start, but we can see here he's struggling really only on the road. A season ago his OPS was near identical at home and on the road, so as with Quentin, I'm taking the positive approach and presuming Rios will level off a bit at home, but more than make up for it on the road. Buy low. … And Justin Upton has always had significant home-versus-road splits in his numbers, with a career OPS 187 points worse on the road. If he weren't annually a threat for 30 home runs -- someday it will happen, he's only 23! -- it might make me sit him on the road. I just can't, though. It's also worth noting he does have more stolen bases in road games over the course of his career.
 

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Beltran Goes Bananas
Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran slugged three home runs in a game Thursday for the first time in his career. They were all two-run shots and helped the Mets climb to a 9-5 victory over the Rockies. Beltran looked a little shaky during the first week of the regular season, but he quickly caught fire offensively around mid-April and has been raking ever since. With a .977 OPS, eight homers and 24 RBI in 36 games, the 34-year-old Puerto Rican has been one of the top fantasy steals of the young 2011 season. And there's no reason to think the good times won't continue. When Beltran is healthy, he produces. That's been a truth almost his entire career.

Let's get on with Friday's edition of the Daily Dose...

* Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann was drafted in nearly every mixed fantasy league this spring. He might not have gone in high rounds or even middle rounds, but he was plucked off almost every draft board. And for good reason. The 24-year-old returned from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery at the end of last season and rattled off a 27/10 K/BB ratio over 31 innings before the curtain closed on the Nationals' 2010 campaign.

Zimmermann has experienced his ups and downs so far in 2011. Some starts have been good, others not so much. But on Thursday night in Atlanta, he made a whole lot of brave and bold fantasy owners look intelligent. The Wisconsin native racked up a career-high 11 strikeouts against a tough Braves lineup and would have earned his third win of the season if not for a late collapse.

Here's to hoping Zimmermann channels whatever went right for him Thursday into a solid full season. The guy has a quality four-pitch arsenal headed up by a mid-90s fastball and sharp-breaking slider.

* Mets first baseman Ike Davis made some noise last season, slugging 19 home runs and tallying 71 RBI over 147 games as a rookie in the National League East. He's been even better this year, boasting a .925 OPS, seven home runs and 25 RBI through 36 games. Unfortunately, he is going to have to put that momentum on hold for a bit. Davis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Thursday afternoon with a left ankle sprain and a bone bruise. Mets assistant GM John Ricco told reporters that he expects the 24-year-old to return in a little over two weeks.

National League Quick Hits: An MRI Thursday on Jason Heyward's right shoulder showed only inflammation … Carlos Ruiz will be activated from the disabled list before Friday's game … Chris Young has opted to undergo surgery to repair a re-tear of the anterior capsule in his right shoulder and is likely to miss the rest of the season … Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan hinted Thursday that Eduardo Sanchez is the Cardinals' first option at closer … Roy Oswalt showed a lack of velocity Thursday in what was supposed to be his final rehab start … Martin Pradro led the Braves over the Nationals Thursday with a game-tying seventh-inning grand slam … Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment Saturday at Triple-A Albuquerque … Johan Santana threw off the slope of a mound this week at the Mets' spring training complex … Chase Utley homered and drew a walk Thursday in a rehab game at Single-A Clearwater … Andrew McCutchen was benched Thursday for failing to hustle in Wednesday's loss … The Phillies placed catcher Brian Schneider on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring … Armando Galarraga is not being removed from Arizona's rotation, at least not yet … Scott Proctor will rejoin the Braves' bullpen Sunday … Nelson Figueroa has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City … The Cardinals are hoping Ryan Theriot (oblique) will feel well enough to return Friday.

American League Quick Hits: Royals youngster Eric Hosmer hit his second home run in as many days Thursday at Yankee Stadium … Orioles youngster Zach Britton hurled nine shutout innings Thursday against the Mariners … Alexi Ogando is recovered from his blister and should have no restrictions when he takes the mound Friday … Eric Chavez had the walking boot removed from his bruised left foot … An MRI Thursday on Bruce Chen's strained lat muscle showed no structural damage, but he is still likely to miss three weeks … Robinson Cano was able to play Thursday despite getting beaned in the helmet Wednesday night … Franklin Gutierrez went 2-for-4 with four RBI in a rehab game at Triple-A Tacoma on Thursday night … Mariners closer Brandon League blew his second save in a row Thursday against the Orioles … Brandon Webb showed improved velocity Thursday in a start at extended spring training … Justin Duchscherer is scheduled to throw a two-inning simulated game Friday … Rafael Soriano played a game of catch Thursday without feeling discomfort in his inflamed throwing elbow … Brian Matusz will make at least two minor league rehab starts.
 

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Next Week's Full Deck

Next week is the kind that fantasy players love and actual players probably hate. Across the major leagues, not one single team has a day off scheduled. That means multiple two-start pitchers for every team, so you'll have plenty of options to sort through below. There are plenty of aces in this full deck, with David Price, Felix Hernandez, Brett Anderson, Justin Masterson, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee and Matt Garza among the more sterling options.

Notice also that interleague play officially gets underway next weekend, and plan accordingly.

Going Twice...



American League

Strong Plays
David Price: NYY (Burnett), @FLA (Johnson)
James Shields: NYY (Nova), @FLA (Nolasco)
Felix Hernandez: MIN (Liriano), @SD (Richard)
Brett Anderson: LAA (Pineiro), @SF (Sanchez)
Gio Gonzalez: LAA (Chatwood), @SF (Cain)
A.J. Burnett: @TB (Price), NYM (Pelfrey)
Scott Baker: @SEA (Vargas), @ARI (Hudson)
Joel Pineiro: @OAK (Anderson), ATL (Hanson)
Justin Masterson: @KC (O'Sullivan), CIN (Volquez)

Decent Plays
Kyle Drabek: @DET (Porcello), HOU (Myers)
Jesse Litsch: @DET (Coke), HOU (Rodriguez)
Matt Harrison: @CWS (Danks), @PHI (Worley)
Colby Lewis: @CWS (Jackson), @PHI (Lee)
Jason Vargas: MIN (Baker), @SD (Stauffer)
Ivan Nova: @TB (Shields), NYM (Niese)
Tyler Chatwood: @OAK (Gonzalez), ATL (Lowe)
Rick Porcello: TOR (Drabek), @PIT (Maholm)
Phil Coke: TOR (Litsch), @PIT (Morton)
Edwin Jackson: TEX (Lewis), LAD (Garland)
Carlos Carrasco: @KC (Mazzaro), CIN (Bailey)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: BAL (Tillman), CHC (Garza)
Zach Britton: @BOS (Lackey), WAS (Zimmermann)

At Your Own Risk
Francisco Liriano: @SEA (Hernandez), @ARI (Galarraga)
Vin Mazzaro: CLE (Carrasco), STL (Westbrook)
Sean O'Sullivan: CLE (Masterson), STL (Garcia)
John Lackey: BAL (Britton), CHC (Coleman)
Chris Tillman: @BOS (Matsuzaka), WAS (Lannan)

National League

Strong Plays
Jaime Garcia: PHI (Oswalt), @KC (O'Sullivan)
Jonathan Sanchez: @COL (Jimenez), OAK (Anderson)
Matt Cain: @COL, OAK (Gonzalez)
Roy Oswalt: @STL (Garcia), TEX (Harrison)
Cliff Lee: @STL (Westbrook), TEX (Lewis)
Hiroki Kuroda: MIL (Marcum), @CWS (Buehrle)
Josh Johnson: @NYM (Pelfrey), TB (Price)
Ricky Nolasco: @NYM (Niese),TB (Shields)
Matt Garza: @CIN (Bailey), @BOS (Matsuzaka)
Tommy Hanson: HOU (Myers), @LAA (Pineiro)
Derek Lowe: HOU (Rodriguez), @LAA (Chatwood)
Daniel Hudson: SD (Stauffer), MIN (Baker)
Shaun Marcum: @LAD (Kuroda), COL (Jimenez)

Decent Plays
Jordan Zimmermann: PIT (Morton), @BAL (Britton)
Clayton Richard: @ARI (Galarraga), SEA (Hernandez)
Tim Stauffer: @ARI (Hudson), SEA (Vargas)
Charlie Morton: @WAS (Zimmermann), DET (Coke)
Paul Maholm: @WAS (Lannan), DET (Porcello)
Randy Wolf: @LAD (Garland), COL
Jon Garland: MIL (Wolf), @CWS (Jackson)
Wandy Rodriguez: @ATL (Lowe), @TOR (Litsch)
Homey Bailey: CHC (Garza), @CLE (Carrasco)
Ubaldo Jimenez: SF (Sanchez), @MIL (Marcum)
Armando Galarraga: SD (Richard), MIN (Liriano)

At Your Own Risk
John Lannan: PIT (Maholm), @BAL (Tillman)
Jake Westbrook: PHI (Lee), @KC (Mazzaro)
Jon Niese: FLA (Nolasco), @NYY (Nova)
Mike Pelfrey: FLA (Johnson), @NYY (Burnett)
Brett Myers: @ATL (Hanson), @TOR (Drabek)
Edinson Volquez: CHC (Coleman), @CLE (Masterson)
Casey Coleman: @CIN (Volquez), @BOS (Lackey)


Streamer City



The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 5/18: Brandon McCarthy vs. MIN
McCarthy has turned in a quality start five times in seven trips to the mound. The Twins... well, they're bad.

Wednesday, 5/18: Bartolo Colon @ BAL
Colon has been very effective for the Yankees this year, and matches up well against the O's.

Thursday, 5/19: Alex White @ CWS
White has pitched well in his first two big-league starts, and the White Sox offense continues to sputter along.

National League

Wednesday, 5/18: Tom Gorzelanny @ NYM
In his past three starts, the left-hander has allowed three runs over 21 1/3 innings.

Thursday, 5/19: Johnny Cueto vs. PIT
Cueto was outstanding in his season debut this past week. Look for him to keep it up against the Bucs.

<!--RW-->


Total Games



American League

7: BAL, BOS, CWS, CLE, DET, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR

National League

7: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, SF, STL, SD, WAS


Lefty/Righty Breakdown



American League

BAL: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
BOS: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CWS: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CLE: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
DET: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
KC: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAA: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIN: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
NYY: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
OAK: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SEA: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TB: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TEX: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
TOR: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
ATL: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CIN: 7 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
COL: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
FLA: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
HOU: 7 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
LAD: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIL: 7 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
NYM: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
PHI: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
PIT: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SD: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SF: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
STL: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
WAS: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP


The Infirmary



You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page, but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:

Marco Scutaro: Out indefinitely
Geovany Soto: Out until late May
Esmil Rogers: Out until late May
Ike Davis: Out until late May
Chris Young: Out for season
Nelson Cruz: Out until late May
Rick Ankiel: Out until late May
 

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