MLB Fantasy News 2011

[HacheMan]

Potential buy-low candidates

It's time for GMs to pounce on these five players while their prices are low


By Jason A. Churchill
ESPN Insider



Just like their counterparts -- those with peaking values -- a handful of high-potential players are not playing up to their capabilities. Some of them have performed in the recent past and are young enough to believe in for the future.

It's worth noting that Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez fits the above criteria, but doesn't necessarily qualify as a buy-low trade candidate, since the Fish are believed to be hanging onto their star players to open their new stadium next year.


Here are some of those talents who shrewd GMs should be targeting as buy-low candidates.

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B.J. Upton, CF -- Tampa Bay Rays
Upton has teased the Rays with his tools and the 2007 season in which he hit .300/.386/.508 with 24 home runs, as well as his play during the club's 2008 postseason run when the center fielder smacked seven home runs in 16 games. Upton is getting to be an expensive outfield glove, however, and the time to trade him might be now, whether or not the Rays believe they are in the race or not.


The 26-year-old will be a free agent after 2012 and will likely receive a as much a $7 million via arbitration this winter. That's a lot of money for the Rays, but other organizations, such as the Texas Rangers, or even the Washington Nationals, who have long had a crush on Upton's game, could easily afford that.


The Rays have a replacement for Upton in prospect Desmond Jennings and could add valuable pieces for either now or the future, or even both, in exchange for the former No. 2 overall draft pick.


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Geovany Soto, C -- Chicago Cubs
Soto appears to be following the Bret Saberhagen career path by performing very well every other season. The 28-year-old was a star-in-the-making in 2008 when he hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 long balls, but he has battled some injuries the past two and a half seasons and simply hasn't been the impact player he was three seasons ago.


He seems healthy now, however, playing in 66 games before the break, and his poor numbers, including a .228 average and .402 slugging, can partially be explained by a poor batting average on balls in play of .279. There are reasons to be scared off, including his rise in strikeout ratio for the second straight season, as well as a drop in walk frequency. His line drive percentage still is more than acceptable, though, suggesting the chance he recovers and finds some consistent levels of production that would reward any club looking to acquire him.


The Cubs might initially ask for the moon in return, but with as many holes to fill as they appear to have, and considering Soto's arbitration status that could earn him around $6 million next season, the time might be right to shop the former 11th-round draft pick.


Colby Rasmus, CF -- St. Louis Cardinals
The rumblings that the Cardinals might not be married to Rasmus for the long haul first arose last winter and the buzz might not die until he is ultimately dealt. Rasmus is still mostly about potential, displaying flashes of star-quality play but having yet to find consistency for a full season.


There is a lot to love about the kid, starting with all five tools. He runs, throws and shows range, has power at the plate and his ability to hit for average has been the teaser during his first four-plus seasons. The defensive metrics don't like him much, but the scouting eye tends to believe he can cover ground and make plays, and there's no doubting his potential at the plate. A change of scenery might work out well for him, and there certainly would be no shortage of interested parties should the Cards choose to field offers.


Rasmus will not turn 25 until next month and will hit arbitration for the first time after this season. The acquiring club would gain three years of club control. Additionally, if they made a deal this month, they also would net an extra couple months. As a result of his contract status, Rasmus' market wouldn't likely be limited to contending clubs, which increases his value to GM John Mozeliak. There is still a chance Rasmus blossoms into a star, placing him among the very best buy-low candidates.


Daric Barton, 1B -- Oakland Athletics
Daric Barton has never hit for much power, but he's always been able to get on base and hit for some average -- until now.


Barton, 25, posted a .393 on-base mark a year ago and hit a respectable .273 with 48 extra-base hits. In 67 games this season, Barton has a triple-slash of .212/.325/.267 with no home runs and just 13 extra-base hits. He's still drawing walks, though, even in the minors where he's been the past few weeks. Barton might need to become more aggressive to avoid two-strike counts, as his strikeout rates are up this season.


The A's will have to go to arbitration with Barton after the year is up, but he isn't likely to be pricey due to his lack of service time and poor performance. There is a chance, however, that the Athletics look to move on at the position. Clubs that have power elsewhere could see Barton as an ideal buy-low candidate to infuse some OBP into their lineup or to cover for an injury, and his big-league splits don't suggest a platoon partner is necessary once he rights the ship.


Gordon Beckham, 2B -- Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have given no indications that they have given up on Beckham, but the club is batting just .252 as a team and ranks in the bottom half of the American League in all major categories. They might need to shake things up a bit.


Beckham has had two brutal first halves in a row and isn't playing good enough defense at second base to make up for the lack of production at the plate. Interested clubs would very likely have to part with some value in return, but the payoff could be rather large, especially if Beckham were given a shot to play his natural position of shortstop on a daily basis.

 

[HacheMan]

Kemp, Ethier lead sell-high candidates

The Los Angeles Dodgers stars may have more value now than they ever will


Jason A. Churchill
ESPN Insider


Every summer clubs make hundreds of phone calls and send thousands of text messages discussing potential deals, with each executive bargaining to get the best deal on the best possible talents. Some of those players will spend only a few contending months with the acquiring team, which means momentum is a key piece of the equation. In other words, the better the player is performing, the better the return.

There are a number of players that are currently performing at peak levels or carry quantifiable value that they may never again reach for a variety of reasons. That makes them candidates to be traded while their value sits at its zenith. Here are five of them:


Matt Kemp, CF -- Los Angeles Dodgers



Kemp has had one hiccup of a season en route to his All-Star status -- 2010 when he hit just .249, tallied 170 strikeouts and failed on 15 of his 34 attempts to steal. His other 556 career games, including the first 92 contests of 2011, have been played at a high level, but never higher than this season.


Blessed with every tool in the cabinet, Kemp has put it all together this season, entering the break batting .313 with the sixth-best on-base percentage in the National League and 43 extra-base hits, thrusting his trade value through the roof despite relatively poor reviews of his defense in center field.


The Dodgers' motivation for trading their best player starts with the 26-year-old's contract status. He's due to hit free agency after 2012 and will hit arbitration this coming winter after making $7 million this year. The Dodgers could draw interest from numerous clubs if Kemp is made available, and the haul could be plentiful. The Texas Rangers are one organization that may have the necessary young talent to land Kemp.
<OFFER>If the Dodgers wait, however, they risk losing the player without proper compensation after next season or getting far less in return if they deal him a year from now. And based on the Dodgers' ugly financial situation, their best course of action might be rebuilding with young, cheap talent.


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Andre Ethier, RF -- Dodgers



Ethier is having another very solid season -- his fourth straight -- and like Kemp, he will be a free agent after next season and can only lose value going forward. Trading Ethier this summer gives the acquiring club a year and a half of control and the opportunity to rent the left-handed hitter for the stretch drive and flip him to another team over the winter rather than paying him upward of $10 million.


Ethier is merely adequate in right field and has experience in left, so clubs needing a corner bat would be getting just that, a bat, rather than a complete player. But he's consistent and posting career bests for batting average (.311) and on-base percentage (.383).


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Alex Gordon, LF -- Kansas City Royals



Gordon was a busted No. 2 overall draft pick before breaking through this season and is on pace for career-high numbers in every positive offensive category. He'll hit arbitration for the second time over the offseason and the Royals have a chance to deal Gordon for help in other areas, such as pitching or catching, while he's performing as well as he ever has and before he gets expensive.


The Royals' timeframe for contention is nearing, and Gordon could be a part of the core of such a roster, but he's 27 years old and not many scouts are sold that he's more than passable in left field, nor trusted to continue to produce at this level. It's the first time he's hit for average and late bloomers have a tendency to have a short shelf life.


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Hunter Pence, RF -- Houston Astros



Pence has already been a hot topic in the rumor mills, thanks to Houston's struggles and the new ownership. The Astros' best player is batting .323 with 11 homers and 24 doubles and plays a decent right field with a plus throwing arm that he showed off in Tuesday's All-Star Game, gunning down Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista at the plate in the fourth inning.


Pence, 28, is enjoying a career year and by far his best since his rookie season in 2007 but isn't likely to sustain such performance. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is more than 60 points above his career norm, while his walk and strikeout rates are actually worse.


Pence's contract situation -- he'll be arbitration eligible for the third time after 2011 and is likely to warrant a substantial raise from the $6.9 million he's earning this season -- strongly suggests he's most valuable right now. Trading Pence this month jump-starts Houston's rebuilding task, especially considering the potential suitors, including Boston and Philadelphia.


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Jair Jurrjens, RHP -- Atlanta Braves



Jurrjens has staved off the disabled list this season and has been worth 2.3 Wins Above Replacement in 16 starts. His success is almost impossible to explain, however. His stuff is solid yet unspectacular, and his league-leading ERA -- 1.87 at the break -- is more than run lower than his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and nearly two runs under his xFIP of 3.76. He doesn't induce a ton of ground balls -- 43.8 percent this season -- and his strikeout rate of 5.29 per nine innings pitched ranks No. 48 among qualified National League starters.


It's difficult to believe that his value can get any higher, despite the fact that scouts of rival clubs are not fooled by his smoke-and-mirrors success. Scouts need more reliable evidence that he is what the numbers say he is before they recommend their clubs pay the price to acquire him. All it takes is one, however, and there are those organizations that believe in the pitcher that simply finds a way to get the job done and is under club control through 2013.


The Braves may never be in a better position to get a bat for Jurrjens, with potential in-house replacements in the farm system and a struggling offense holding them back.

 

[HacheMan]

Fish or Fowler?
Is he Fish or Fowler is the lead question in this week's Week That Was.


Dexter Fowler: Thanks to the unfortunate injury to Charlie Blackmon, Dexter Fowler got another chance to show he belongs in the show. Well, day one went well. Fowler doubled, swiped a bag and crossed home twice. Teams in need of a spark should look to the West. Fowler has great speed and great ability. If he has grown up just a bit during his last stint riding buses in the minors, he could be a difference maker. Remember, this is the same guy that stole 27 bases and scored 73 runs at age 23 in 2009 (all in 2/3 of a season). Buy.


Juan Rivera: In a nice story, Juan Rivera had a strong debut for the Dodgers, going 2-4 with a dinger. Simply put, don't get too excited. First, Rivera is unlikely to unseat the better defender and younger Tony Gwynn, Jr. Also, Rivera was really not good in a far better hitter's situation in Toronto at .247 with a mere 7 HR. If someone is willing to deal for Rivera believing he hits in California, take the deal.


Carlos Guillen: In welcomed news for the Tigers and fantasy players alike, Carlos Guillen is set to play 2b full time starting Saturday. Is he likely to stay healthy all year? No. Is he likely to be an upgrade over the Ramiro Pena's of the world as backup MI in AL-only leagues? Um, ya. Guillen at 35 is not the allstar we remember. However, when on the field he produces. Last year, he hit 9 HR with 43 RBI in half of a season. His owners would surely take that for the second half of 11. Buy in deep leagues.


Brett Myers: Brett Myers needs to get out of Houston. Despite striking out 11 in 6 innings, Myers lost to the Pirates and now "boasts" a 3-10 record. This is just another example of where you have to keep track of the T in SMART. T stands for Team. Bad teams' pitchers don't get wins. Bad teams' pitchers get traded in July. Look for Myers to end up with a contender and have his value increase substantially. Buy.


Gavin Floyd: Gavin Floyd looked sharp in his first outing post All-Star Break, besting Justin Verlander. Floyd gave up two runs over 7 2/3 innings, striking out 5. Floyd has averaged more than 150K and a 1.28 WHIP over that last three years. Look for similar solid numbers and a bunch of wins (when the Chisox bats wake up). Buy.


Peter Bourjos: Peter Bourjos ended up on the DL after all. Bad for Bourjos, good for Mike Trout. The 19 year old phenom will stick in the bigs for at least another week. If I had to bet, I would say he stays and plays. Those in keeper leagues are probably already too late to grab Trout. However, those in AL only single season leagues may be able to get the teenager at a cheap price. If you can, do it. There is no doubt about the talent. As to the playing time, it is just my gut feel that he will continue to get it.

Jordan Zimmermann: According to reports, the Nats will let Jordan Zimmermann pitch on regular turns until he hits 160 innings. They will then shut him down. If these reports are true, he will not pitch in September. Zimm owners beware. Bottom line here -- if you are in contention and own him cheap, he is the perfect guy to deal to a team playing for next year. That team will not care about September and you will get someone who helps this year.


And last but not least, a super sized Schultz Says: "People like lists. I'm not the first person to come to this conclusion. In fact, I'm pretty sure I recall David Letterman saying something similar when trying out his first few Top Ten Lists. In that vein, this week The Week That Was gloriously presents for your perusal the 2011 Mid-Season All Schultz Awards.

THE 2011 "WHY I'M IN LAST" TEAM. The wonderful thing about rotisserie baseball is the fantasy world it allows us to live in, complete with the full denial as to why the team you bragged about in April is in the cellar. As a public service, here is a list of players that you believed would guide you to Roto-heights but are weighing you down in the roto-depths.

C: JOE MAUER (MIN) - rather than living up to his reputation as the finest roto-catcher in the world, his bi-lateral leg weakness caused the ghosts of his prior lower back problems to rattle their creaky chains.

1B: JUSTIN MORNEAU (MIN) - with his concussion issues behind him, Morneau batted .225 with 4 home runs before undergoing neck surgery that he claims will not be season ending.

2B: DAN UGGLA (ATL) - his 15 home runs come nowhere close to making up for a dismal .186 batting average and 36 RBI.

SS: HANLEY RAMIREZ (FLA) - once in the discussion for roto-MVP, Han Ram isn't even in the cream of the class for his weak-hitting position.

3B: RYAN ZIMMERMAN (WASH) - narrowly edging out Evan Longoria, like his TB cohort, injuries have caused his numbers to dwindle to 4 HR, 16 RBI and .256.

OF: CARL CRAWFORD (BOS) - expectations were off the charts for his first season with the Red Sox juggernaut and he's responded with a .243, 6 HR and 8 SB. EIGHT STOLEN BASES!!!

OF: SHIN-SOO CHOO (CLE) - before breaking his thumb, the perennial .300 hitting 20/20 man was sitting on .244 with 5 HR, 28 RBI and 11 SB on a resurgent Indians ball club.

OF: JAYSON WERTH (WASH) - celebrating his extravagant new contract by taking the first year off, Werth is bottoming out at .216, 10 HR, 31 RBI. Sadly, you paid as much as the Nats.

SP: ROY OSWALT (PHI) - after the Beverly Hillbillies rise from the cellar to the penthouse, much more was expected than a 4-6, 1.33 WHIP and 43 strikeouts.

RP: JOAKIN SORIA (KC) - remember before the season when Soria was in the can't miss category with Rivera and Papelbon; remember when he spent a week as Aaron Crow's set-up man.

DH: JORGE POSADA (NY) - it got so bad that the Yankees thought about releasing him when the sub-Mendoza at the time DH begged off of hitting 9th.

THE CLEVELAND INDIANS TEAM. Before the season, nearly every pundit - including Glenn Colton - condescendingly congratulated the Tribe on their quick start and told everyone that they shouldn't believe what they were seeing. As the Indians sit in first place in the AL Central, not a single one - including Glenn Colton - have admitted they were wrong. None of the players on this list were touted or believed in at the beginning of the season. If you did, you're smarter than the average bear.

C: ALEX AVILA (DET) - in the absence of a true breakout catcher, the Detroit backstop gets the Kyrie Irving nod as the most surprising catcher with his .282, 10 HR 46 RBI.

1B: PAUL KONERKO (CHI) - when Konerko bottomed out in 2008 with a .240, 22 HR season, you couldn't have predicted a .320 22 HR, 67 RBI first half in 2011.

2B: MICHAEL YOUNG (TEX) - with trade rumors swirling, the situation with Young in Texas was toxic; he responded with a .322, 60 RBI first half while getting eligibility at second base.

SS: ASDRUBAL CABRERA (CLE) - after an injury-plagued 2010, the AL MVP went undrafted in most leagues; he's busted out this year as the most valuable roto-shortstop not named Reyes.

3B: RYAN ROBERTS (ARZ) - the HDTV superstar (seriously, check out his tattoos) is on pace for a 20/20 season.

OF: LANCE BERKMAN (SL) - moving to the outfield was supposed to end his career not resurrect it to the tune of 24 HR, 63 RBI and .287.

OF: CURTIS GRANDERSON (NYY) - finding a monstrous power stroke, Granderson might be the most dangerous hitter in the Yankees line up with a respectable .269 to go with his 25 HRs

OF: MATT JOYCE (TB) - he's tailed off recently, but for a healthy stretch in the first half, he provided the offense the Rays were missing with Longoria on the DL.

SP: RYAN VOGELSONG (SF) - when you get 6 wins, 70 Ks, a 2.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP from a pitcher who was out of baseball for 4 years and not that good when he played - yeah - that's a steal.

RP: JOEL HANRAHAN (PIT) - he has a better ERA, a better WHIP, more strikeouts and more saves than Mariano Rivera. He also cost infinitely less.

U: MIKE MORSE (WASH) - perhaps the first pre-season sensation to actually have a good season - his .303, 15 HR and 49 RBI are a pleasant surprise.

THE VINCE VAUGHN IS PROUD OF YOU TEAM. Just imagine him standing on a table in a diner shouting drunkenly about how happy he is for these guys cause they're all grown up. You might not recognize him, he'll be much skinnier.

C: MATT WIETERS (BAL) - if you ignore the improbable, lofty expectations foisted upon Wieters upon his promotion, you won't be upset with his .270, 20 HR 75 RBI pace.

1B: GABY SANCHEZ (FLA) - criminally overlooked due to the presence of Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison and (until recently) Cameron Maybin, Sanchez is the sole one to mature into a dependable roto-asset.

2B: RICKIE WEEKS (MIL) - he doesn't make this team by hitting .273 or slugging 17 homers, he's on the list for not getting injured in more than 1 1/2 years.

SS: YUNEL ESCOBAR (TOR) - he's found a home in Toronto, hitting leadoff or third, he's been steadily around .300 while on pace for 20 HR.

3B: PABLO SANDOVAL (SF) - hamate bone setback notwithstanding, Kung Fu Panda has proven that last year's season was an aberration.

OF: JOSE BAUTISTA (TOR) - until the aliens come back to reclaim the powers they've given him, the home run master of the universe plays north of the border

OF: ANDREW McCUTCHEN (PIT) - the heart of the feisty Pirates squad, McCutchen has become a five category star.

OF: ADAM JONES (BAL) - he's come close to matching his 2010 stats in half a season and on the verge of realizing his potential.

SP: GIO GONZALEZ (OAK) - a sub 2.50 ERA and close to a strikeout an inning, almost all too typical of a young pitcher in the Oakland system.

RP: DREW STOREN (WASH) - closers come and go at a rapid pace as hitters figure them out and eat them for lunch; Storen seems like he's doing the opposite.

THE MacBETH TEAM. Everyone on this team will be pretty fun to have and make a lot of noise as they have some fantastic games but in the end, it won't amount to much as they won't help you this year.

C: Wilson Ramos (WASH)
1B: Eric Hosmer (KC)/Brandon Belt (SF)
2B: Dustin Ackley (SEA)/Jemile Weeks (OAK)
SS: Dee Gordon (LA)
3B: Mike Moustakas (KC)/Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE)
OF: Desmond Jennings (TB)
OF: Mike Trout (ANA)
OF: Domonic Brown (PHI)
SP: Dillon Gee (NYM)
RP: Jake McGee (TB)"

 

[HacheMan]

AL Notes: Blasting Capps It's gone from bad to much worse for Matt Capps, who blew his seventh save in 22 chances Friday and took a loss to the Royals. His ERA is up to 4.76, and he's getting booed at every appearance at Target Field. Fortunately for the Twins, Joe Nathan is pitching well of late and seems ready for another shot in the closer's role. The switch is due to come down any minute now.

I don't expect the Twins to be sellers at the trade deadline, but they may well take what they can get for Capps and Kevin Slowey. Capps' velocity is down and his strikeout rate has been awful, but some team may surrender a modest prospect for him anyway. Ideally, the Twins could get a quality reliever back to replace him in a Slowey deal. The Rockies are interested and they have the bullpen depth to part with Matt Lindstrom.

American League notes

- The Angels opted to place Peter Bourjos (hamstring) on the disabled list Friday, buying Mike Trout another week in the majors. It sounded like the 19-year-old Trout would have been sent back down had Bourjos been deemed ready to go, but the Halos played it safe with their starting center fielder. Trout is 2-for-13 through four games, so he isn't off to the kind of torrid start he needed to convince the Angels to keep him around. He's a wonderful prospect and he should contribute next year, but I'm skeptical that he'll make a fantasy impact in 2011.

- Indications are that the Angels were ready to pull the trigger on a Jeff Mathis-for-Garrett Jones trade before the Pirates backed out. Hopefully it means that they're truly ready to move on from Mathis. Hank Conger may not be an above average starting catcher just yet, but he should be by next year. In the meantime, the Angels need someone better to pair with him. Ramon Hernandez would be ideal. Rod Barajas and old friend Jose Molina might be alternatives.

- I've been expecting a resurgence from Vladimir Guerrero, but last week's hand injury, diagnosed as a slight fracture near his wrist, would seem to make that less likely. If not for his reputation, Guerrero likely would have been placed on the disabled list already. With Guerrero hurting and Luke Scott on the DL, Nolan Reimold should be a nice AL-only outfielder for at least the next couple of weeks and perhaps the entire second half.

- Given that Orioles starters have an ERA right around 7.00 over the last month, we might see Jim Johnson moved into the rotation soon. I wouldn't expect him to have a whole lot of fantasy value there, but he is deserving of the chance.

- Zach Britton, who is 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA in his last five starts, is slated to rejoin the Baltimore rotation on July 30 after a three-week breather in the minors.

- The Tigers activated Carlos Guillen on Saturday and put him right into the lineup at second base. It's really hard to imagine Guillen staying healthy while playing second, but he'll be an obvious upgrade on the alternatives until he gets dinged up. Ryan Raburn will have minimal value until Guillen returns to the disabled list.

- Austin Jackson is looking like a DL candidate with his wrist injury, which means Andy Dirks could be a solid mixed league outfielder for the rest of the month.

- The Tigers have yet to announce their fifth starter. They lined it up so that top prospect Jacob Turner could come up and pitch Wednesday in that rotation spot, but it's still highly unlikely that he'll be promoted. They may give Charlie Furbush a longer look, even though he was a bust in his two starts before the break, or they may go to left-hander Duane Below. Neither Furbush nor Below makes for much of an AL-only sleeper. It's a pretty safe assumption that the Tigers will acquire a starter at some point within the next month.

- Lorenzo Cain is tearing it up at Triple-A Omaha of late, giving the Royals more incentive to trade either Jeff Francoeur or Melky Cabrera. Cain had a .965 OPS in June and is at 1.178 so far this month, leaving him with a season line of .319/.385/.536 with 11 homers and nine steals in 304 at-bats. Expect him to have some fantasy value during the final two months.

- The Royals also remain likely to deal Wilson Betemit, though they ruined his trade value by benching him in favor of Mike Moustakas. Moustakas is hitting just .205/.247/.241 over the last month, so there's the chance the Royals could send him back to Triple-A and return Betemit to the lineup. I doubt it will shake out that way, though.

- Carl Crawford (hamstring) will rejoin the Red Sox on Monday and Jon Lester (lat) might be back as soon as Friday. Crawford's return shouldn't eliminate all of Josh Reddick's value. The Red Sox may not be ready to give up on J.D. Drew just yet, but Reddick is going to have to play at least a few times per week until Drew gets it going.

- Andrew Miller was well off with his command Friday night, but he was also hurt by key misplays from catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia in both the first and second innings of the loss to Baltimore. With his velocity down, I'm not as optimistic about his chances as I was a few weeks ago. Still, I think he's worth holding on to in AL-only leagues for now.

- Things are looking up for the Twins on the injury front, at least. Scott Baker (elbow) will start Monday, Jason Kubel (foot) should be back next weekend, Denard Span (concussion) could be less than two weeks away and Justin Morneau (neck) is looking like a possibility for an early August return.

- The Twins will have to make a tough call on Ben Revere with Kubel and Span on the way back. Revere was the AL co-Rookie of the Month for June, but while he's played strong defense, he hasn't been hitting of late. Things would change in the unlikely event that Michael Cuddyer is traded, but I suspect that Revere will return to Triple-A when Span is activated.

- Bartolo Colon's hamstring strain seems to have left him with a little less zip on his fastball. Maybe his best stuff will come back the further away he gets from the injury, but it's not really something either the Yankees or fantasy owners can count on given his history. The possibility that he's done as a quality SP this season can't be discounted, and mixed leaguers shouldn't be afraid to switch him out.

- Josh Willingham has been hot since coming off the DL, and it couldn't come at a better time for Oakland as the A's get ready to sell before the deadline. My guess is that Willingham gets sent to an NL team prior to July 31. Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus could also be put up for bids, but I'm not sure anyone is going to want Matsui and DeJesus' trade value is awfully low at the moment, too. Both are possibilities for August deals.

- It sounds like the A's could give Chris Carter an extended look in left field once Willingham goes. He just flopped in a brief stint as Daric Barton's replacement at first base, but the A's need to find out whether he should be in their 2012 plans. Michael Taylor is another option if he can get hot in Triple-A, but he's hitting just .190 this month and a modest .262/.335/.435 overall.

- The A's did just shift Futures Game MVP Grant Green from shortstop to center field in Double-A, but that was a move made more with 2012 in mind. He's hitting .289/.351/.401 in the Texas League, so he still isn't likely to see the majors this year.

- Replacing Carter on Oakland's roster last week was infielder Eric Sogard. The 25-year-old earned the callup by hitting .298/.381/.410 with 13 steals and just 34 strikeouts in 315 at-bats for Triple-A Sacramento. He might be a decent regular at second if given the chance, but since the A's are happy with Jemile Weeks, it doesn't look like he'll have any fantasy value anytime soon.

- Jack Cust's time in Seattle has to be about at an end. He's barely playing and doing little besides striking out when he does. The Mariners could call up Mike Carp for another look in the DH spot. Alternatively, they're one of the two AL teams -- Baltimore being the other -- that should really think about bringing in Wily Mo Pena. As is, they're giving way too much time to Adam Kennedy, with all of the expected results.

- Kyle Seager is off to a 1-for-15 start since replacing Chone Figgins at third base for Seattle. He was a bit of a reach for the Mariners; Figgins' performance was definitely deserving of the benching, but Seager wasn't good enough for long enough to really justify the callup. Seager has a nice line-drive swing, but he's not ready to hit for power in the majors and he's probably not going to have a great OBP either. He might find his way back to Triple-A in a couple of weeks.

- The White Sox will go back to a six-man rotation when John Danks (oblique) comes off the DL on Wednesday. There was some thought that Jake Peavy might take his place there, but apparently there's nothing structurally wrong with his arm and it's just a little fatigue. He'll start Tuesday against the Royals, but he's a mediocre play in mixed leagues this week.

- The Rays' Kelly Shoppach isn't likely to suddenly start hitting for average, but he should be a fine No. 2 catcher in mixed leagues while John Jaso (oblique) is on the DL. Expect a couple of dingers.

- Back-to-back shutouts have certainly gotten Derek Holland some attention. They've also lowered his ERA from 5.10 to 4.32. The hope is that he's finally turned the corner, though given his history of inconsistency, I wouldn't bet big on him just yet. He's certainly talented enough to post an ERA in the mid-3.00s the rest of the way and he needs to be owned in mixed leagues, but I wouldn't recommend trading for him while he's riding high like this.

- Endy Chavez is starting to slow down, and Leonys Martin is making a strong statement for becoming the Rangers' next center fielder. The Cuban defector moved up to Triple-A last week after hitting .348/.435/.571 in 29 games for Double-A Frisco. He struck out just eight times in 122 at-bats against Texas League pitching. In four games for Triple-A Round Rock, he's started off 5-for-16. There's a chance that he could be a big-time asset in AL-only leagues down the stretch.

- The Jays are hoping to get Jose Bautista back from his ankle injury on Sunday or Tuesday. Obviously, he can't be reserved.

- With Bautista back at third and Eric Thames and Travis Snider playing well in the outfield corners, the Jays don't have any reason to rush Brett Lawrie back from his fractured wrist. Lawrie, who was on the verge of making his major league debut before getting hurt at the end of May, began a rehab assignment last week. He'll likely need at least another 10-14 days in the minors before he's a candidate for promotion, and the Jays might decide to wait until September to bring him up if Thames and Snider keep hitting.

- So, Jon Rauch is back as Toronto's closer. Until he blows a save. And then it'll be Frank Francisco again, at least until he blows one. One would think that a longtime pitching coach like John Farrell would have come up with a better way to run a bullpen.

 

[HacheMan]

NL Notes: Axford vs. K-Rod
In the hours following the Francisco Rodriguez-to-Milwaukee deal, the scenarios seemed pretty clear: John Axford would remain the Brewers' closer, while Bobby Parnell would take over for the Mets. What's happened since has left both pictures anything but clear.

With Francisco Rodriguez waiving the games-finished clause that would have triggered a 2012 option, the Brewers no longer have any financial disincentive for allowing K-Rod to close. Manager Ron Roenicke initially said Rodriguez and Axford would split save chances, though that hardly makes much sense given their similarities. The two had essentially the same numbers in the first half, and while Axford has been a whole lot stronger against lefties than Rodriguez this season, there isn't much in either's history to suggest the trend will continue.

Despite Roenicke's words, which likely were largely meant to sooth Rodriguez, Axford appears set to keep closing until he gives the Brewers a reason to strip him of the job. He has been shaky of late, giving up four runs and 10 hits over his last six innings of work. The last run came Saturday, when he barely held on for a save after Rodriguez pitched a perfect eighth against the Rockies.

Axford hasn't been walking anyone during his recent struggles, so it's probably just a temporary blip. Maybe Rodriguez shouldn't be dropped just yet in mixed leagues -- things could change in a hurry if Axford suddenly blows two saves in a row -- but he has minimal value right now.

As for the Mets, Parnell still has to be considered the favorite for saves over the rest of the season, even if manager Terry Collins indicated that Jason Isringhausen would close Friday night. Pedro Beato is also supposed to be in the mix.

Parnell is deserving of the first crack at the job. He possesses the best stuff of any Mets reliever, and he has a 1.47 ERA and a 21/4 K/BB ratio in 18 1/3 innings since coming off the DL on May 30. Isringhausen has been a great surprise in his return to the majors, but his 21/13 K/BB ratio and four homers allowed in 28 2/3 innings suggest that he's very lucky to have a 3.14 ERA. Beato has a 3.38 ERA, but that comes with six unearned runs. He's actually given up 21 runs in 40 innings for the season, and he's pitched in lower leverage situations than Parnell.

So, while both Parnell and Izzy are both worth owning in all formats right now, expect Parnell to win out in the end. Beato is fine to use in NL-only leagues.

National League notes

- Carlos Marmol should get this ironed out and then go right back into the closer's role for the Cubs. Before Thursday's hijinks, his walk rate was down significantly this year, and while his velocity has been down a bit all season long, he's still getting plenty of swings and misses. Things should be back to normal within a couple of weeks.

- I expect one of the NL teams in need of help at third base to take a flier on Kevin Kouzmanoff. He's hitting .313/.350/.600 with six homers and 32 RBI in 27 games for Triple-A Sacramento since being outrighted by the A's. Florida is the likeliest destination for him. The Brewers could go get Wilson Betemit to pair with Casey McGehee.

- The Marlins are going to give Mike Cameron a look as their starting center fielder, so expect them to option Chris Coghlan to Triple-A this week. Coghlan, who had his previous option voided because of a knee injury, is 5-for-21 with no RBI through five games on his rehab assignment.

- After a year and a third in the Florida bullpen, Clay Hensley (shoulder) will get another shot at making it as a starting pitcher when he comes off the DL on Monday. He's been a four-pitch pitcher even as a reliever, so he won't have to expand his arsenal to make it through lineups three times per night. If his velocity comes back a bit -- it was down before he got hurt -- he might resemble a solid No. 4 for Florida. NL-only leaguers in need of a starter should consider giving him a try.

- The Phillies activated Ryan Madson (finger) from the disabled list last week, and while he wasn't put right back into the closer's role, he should get save chances this week. The club is also likely to activate Shane Victorino (thumb) and Placido Polanco (back) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

- That was quite an impression John Mayberry Jr. made in the last game of the first half and the first of the second. He drove in nine runs between them, and he's up to 12 RBI for the month. I still think Domonic Brown is going to be the Phillies' primary right fielder throughout the second half, but if he goes into another slump, then Mayberry will be in position to win the job. Prorating Mayberry's numbers in 131 at-bats out to 550 would give him 21 homers, 101 RBI and 21 steals.

- The Mets will be taking a chance if they wait until the deadline to deal Carlos Beltran. He's been injury-free all season long, but he's still quite a risk there, and it'd be very disappointing if the Mets couldn't get something back for him now and then lost him in free agency. A trade could come this week. Once it does, Lucas Duda may have the most to gain on the Mets. He'd seem to be the favorite to get the majority of the starts in right field initially. A Fernando Martinez callup probably isn't in the cards, not unless he can get hot in a hurry at Triple-A Buffalo. He's hitting .223/.318/.320 in 103 at-bats since the beginning of June.

- Barring a setback, the Mets will activate David Wright (back) from the DL on Friday. Jose Reyes (hamstring) should return by then, too, though mixed leaguers will want to wait for any last-minute news before making a decision on him.

- Milwaukee shook up its lineup by shifting Rickie Weeks into the fifth spot behind Prince Fielder and making Corey Hart the leadoff man. It worked out great Saturday, as Weeks hit a go-ahead homer in the ninth in an 8-7 win, but let's hope it's not a long-term arrangement. Taking an at-bat away from Weeks every other day is hardly the right way to improve the offense, and it was particularly ridiculous to see Weeks batting fifth again Sunday with Ryan Braun (calf, hamstring) out of the lineup and Mark Kotsay hitting third.

- If the Cardinals trade for a starter, then Kyle McClellan will return to the bullpen. Lance Lynn has been very impressive since getting a look as a reliever and is now likely second in line for saves in case something happens with Fernando Salas. Still, the Cardinals need at least one more pitcher.

- An Ubaldo Jimenez trade remains a big long shot. The Rockies would have to be overwhelmed to move him, and I don't see who would do the overwhelming. The Yankees and Rangers wouldn't go overboard for a pitcher who has been well short of great this season, and the Tigers probably don't have the artillery anyway. The Cardinals have the ability to offer Colby Rasmus and one of their outstanding pitching prospects, but I don't imagine that they will.

- A strong week and a half in Triple-A was enough to get Dexter Fowler back to the majors. The Rockies are better defensively with Fowler in center and Carlos Gonzalez in left, and it's not as though any of the alternative outfields figured to be much better offensively. Since Fowler has regressed as a basestealer, he probably won't be of any use in mixed leagues anytime soon.

- Things are looking up for Ian Stewart. He's hitting .290/.371/.452 in 31 at-bats this month, while Ty Wigginton has cooled off in a big way. A straight platoon, with Stewart playing against righties and Wigginton starting against lefties, appears to be in the cards.

- The Pirates want an outfielder and a catcher as they look to remain in contention in the NL Central. They declined to trade Garrett Jones for Jeff Mathis, which was for the best. I don't think much of Jones, but Mathis wouldn't even qualify as a good backup catcher. If the Pirates can get an outfielder, then Jones would likely battle Lyle Overbay for starts at first base. Oakland's Josh Willingham looks like their preferred target.

- After weeks of speculation, the Diamondbacks decided to have Brandon Allen replace Juan Miranda at first base. I thought they'd go to minor league home run leader Paul Goldschmidt instead, but Allen is the right call in my opinion. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and the Diamondbacks need to figure out whether he should be in the plans for 2012. Ideally, he'd smack 8-10 homers while starting against right-handers the rest of the way. Xavier Nady likely will continue to the get the call versus southpaws.

- The Diamondbacks are calling up Barry Enright and having him replace Zach Duke at the back of the rotation. That's a move with no fantasy ramifications.

- J.J. Putz (elbow) might rejoin the bullpen next weekend, but since it's not a sure thing, it's probably best to hold off on activating him. David Hernandez could pick up a couple of more saves this week.

- It didn't stop Dusty Baker from playing Edgar Renteria on Saturday, but Zack Cozart is 8-for-21 since his callup. While the Reds could yet trade for shortstop help, the job appears to be Cozart's to lose. Renteria certainly doesn't look like a threat. His presence has left the Reds with a 24-man roster all season long.

- The Giants have to be regretting passing on Mark Ellis before the Rockies acquired him from the A's. With Freddy Sanchez's rehab seemingly have stalled a bit and season-ending shoulder surgery looming as a possibility, the Giants will go looking for a middle infielder prior to the deadline. Jeff Keppinger would be an obvious choice, but I wouldn't be surprised if they ask about Toronto's Aaron Hill.

- San Francisco called up 21-year-old catcher Hector Sanchez, but it was to back up Eli Whiteside, not to start over him. Sanchez, who skipped Double-A when he jumped from high-A San Jose to Triple-A Fresno a month ago, hit .302/.337/.465 with eight homers in 258 minor league at-bats. The Giants like that he's mature beyond his years, but there's little to suggest that he's ready to contribute in the majors now. Only NL-only leaguers in need of a second catcher should pick him up.

- Everyone is waiting to see who is going to be left after what could be known as the Padres' Great Bullpen Exodus of 2011. Heath Bell looks like a goner, and Mike Adams and Chad Qualls may well join him, leaving Luke Gregerson as the Padres' closer by default. Gregerson has struggled of late or he'd be a trade candidate, too. My guess is that Bell and Qualls go and Adams stays as the closer for the final two months. The Padres, though, might be able to get more in return for Adams than Bell. Adams, after all, has been the superior reliever, and, unlike Bell, he's under control for next year.

- Anthony Rizzo is down to .154/.294/.286 in 91 at-bats and could be sent back to Triple-A if Brad Hawpe is able to return within the next week or two. Hawpe's finger injury that put him on the DL is apparently all better, but he's also dealing with soreness in his throwing elbow. The Padres could put Hawpe back at first base when he does return and given Rizzo a little more seasoning in the PCL.

- Javy Guerra is now 5-for-5 saving games for the Dodgers after getting one out in relief of Hong-Chih Kuo on Friday. It's pretty incredible how much his command has improved in the span of one season, and while I doubt he's going to be a long-term closer, he does have a nice one-two punch in his 92-95 mph fastball and plus slider. My hope that Kenley Jansen would win the job seems dashed for now.

- It will be interesting to see what the Dodgers do for a fifth starter if they trade Hiroki Kuroda. No one in Triple-A is very deserving. John Ely has struggled to a 5.18 ERA at Albuquerque. The top choice there is journeyman Dana Eveland, who is 9-5 with a 3.54 ERA this season. They would have the option of stretching out either Blake Hawksworth or Scott Elbert. I'm guessing they wouldn't take the chance with Elbert, but Hawksworth is older and he did make eight starts for the Cardinals last season. I'd like to see if Hawksworth's velocity spike would carry over to the rotation. He's been a nice surprise with a 3.00 ERA out of the pen.

- There's no spot for Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder) in the Washington rotation right now, but a Jason Marquis or Tom Gorzelanny trade could change that. Wang has allowed just two runs over 18 innings in his rehab assignment, and he could join the Nationals after two more minor league starts. He doesn't have much fantasy upside, but NL-only leaguers desperate for a starter could stick him on reserve.

 

[HacheMan]

Grady's (Other) Shady Knee

Grady Sizemore is headed back to Cleveland for tests on his right knee. It's not the knee he had microfracture surgery on, but it is the same knee that caused him to miss time earlier this season. If he's healthy -- and they're calling him day-to-day right now -- he should be able to cut his strikeout rate and improve his batting average some. Still, we know the .270 career hitter is not a batting average boon, his speed is gone, and his power is modest. He's a deep league play at this point, and borderline in mixed leagues unless you have five outfielders.

The weekend also gave us more health-related news surrounding big names in fantasy baseball. Jose Bautista sprained his ankle late last week and missed the weekend. He's targeting Tuesday though. Carlos Gonzalez came back from his wrist injury and even stole a base on Saturday. Phew. David Wright had two hits in his third rehab game and should be activated on Friday. Jose Reyes felt fine after running the bases and is likely to be back Tuesday, a big boon to the Mets lineup. Finally. Carl Crawford was cleared to return today and as long as he's healthy it's all systems go. There was a chance that Ryan Braun would be headed the other way because of his calf, but then he pinch-hit Sunday. His manager already said he'd be back in the lineup Monday but then took it back. Sigh. Jon Lester has a timetable and that timetable says he'll be back in the rotation Tuesday, July 26th. Scott Baker was put on the DL with a mild flexor muscle strain in his pitching elbow. They're waiting for him to give the go-ahead to return. Vladimir Guerrero hit the 15-day DL with that small fracture in his hand. He might make for a mid-August trade when he's healthy. Carlos Guillen came back from the 60-day DL. He even managed 38 at-bats on his rehab stint.

* Trade rumors are important. Heath Bell or Mike Adams are likely to join the Rangers bullpen. One would definitely pitch in front of Neftali Feliz, one might not. Of course, the Padres probably prefer to package Bell, whose contract expires at the end of this year. You might have heard. The Rangers are also reportedly looking at Tyler Clippard and Andrew Bailey, so keep Brian Fuentes on your fingertips. The Ranger are also looking at Jeremy Guthrie, which would be a bad move for an already shaky starter in most formats. Acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez would cost the Yankees Jesus Montero, Ivan Nova, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, or so the rumor goes. That seems like a lot, even if the Rockies include Ty Wigginton. Not likely. The there's Ryan Ludwick, who will surely move. The Red Sox are interested and that would be a nice fit for him. The Phillies might be in on Melky Cabrera, which doesn't figure to end well. The Pirates like Josh Willingham, which makes sense in a good way. John Mozeliak wants you to know that he's not trading Colby Rasmus for the ninth time. Edwin Jackson is enjoying some attention, perhaps especially after his complete game shutout Saturday, and if the Cardinals pick him up he's immediately more interesting. J.J. Hardy signed a three-year contract extension at about $8 million a year and won't be traded any time soon. The Marlins say they aren't trading Anibal Sanchez or Ricky Nolasco. Notice they didn't say Leo Nunez. The Rockies are getting scouted but maybe only for Ryan Spilborghs and Rafael Betancourt, which is not super interesting.

* Not every start tells us a ton about the starter, but some starts reaffirmed our beliefs over the weekend. Matt Cain held the Padres to one run in six innings, which might have been predictable, but the nine strikeouts were a little surprise. His swinging strike rate is up this year, supporting his improvement in that category. Dueling him was Mat Latos, who gave up three in seven with five strikeouts. He's succeeding despite a slight reduction in velocity. Zack Greinke gave up three unearned runs, struck out eight and walked two in six innings Saturday. He's going to rattle off a nice stretch of games really soon. Chris Carpenter threw eight innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts. He's an every-starter everywhere. Cory Luebke held the Giants to two runs in seven innings, but it was the Giants, and his velocity is down a mile or two per hour since he's moved to the rotation. That's how it goes. He can be useful, but he won't be as good as he was in the pen. Kevin Correia gave up three runs in six innings with four strikeouts and one walk. He'll do that, a lot, but he's ownable in anything deeper than a ten-teamer. Wandy Rodriguez gave up four earned to the Pirates Sunday, but he struck out 11. That's good news because his swinging strike rate has been down this year. He's rosterable in most formats, but isn't looking like a frontline starter in any format going forward. Jair Jurrjens was due for some regression, and he got it Sunday.

Deep league version! Sort of. Phil Hughes has much of his old velocity back and looked good against the Blue Jays, striking out five and walking two while giving up two runs in six innings. He's somewhere between a deep leaguer, and a shallow-league spot-start. If this new walk rate holds -- and he walked three in 7 1/3 innings Sunday -- Homer Bailey will be a pitcher to pick up in most formats. He held the Cardinals to one run and struck out four to best Jaime Garcia's team if not the pitcher himself (one run, six strikeouts, no walks in seven innings). He allowed six runs on ten baserunners in five innings against the Nationals. It may not seem very exciting, but Felipe Paulino can keep doing this. He allowed four runs against the Royals, but he's ownable because he also struck out eight and walked only one in those seven innings. Brad Penny is harder to own because though he gets ground balls, those don't show up in fantasy box scores directly. And he's completely lost the strikeout stuff. He allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings to lower his ERA.

Some starts are mirages. Well, Philip Humber's earlier starts were a mirage, and his starts lately more likely to represent his true talent going forward. He gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings Sunday against the Tigers, and though he struck out eight, he doesn't have that kind of stuff. He's best used as a spot-starter in most formats. Kyle Kendrick beat Mike Pelfrey and held the Mets to one run in seven innings, but neither pitcher is really fantasy-worthy. Kendrick walked three and struck out none. Pelfrey struck out two and walked one, but got eleven ground balls to six fly balls. Eh, he's still not consistent enough to be fantasy relevant. Gio Gonzalez should be owned in all leagues by now, and has great strikeout ability paired with inconsistent control, but when he held the Angels scoreless in seven innings with eight strikeouts and only two walks, he did it against the Angels. That offense is worse than it looks right now. Matt Harrison struck out four in 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Mariners, but it was also the Mariners. He just doesn't do enough of anything to get excited about.

* Plus, let's ponder about pens! Carlos Marmol has been temporarily removed from his closer role, and replaced by Sean Marshall for now. Though Marshall is a good pitcher, Marmol is Marmolian. Don't drop him yet. He's working on some mechanical issues right now. We've been banging the drum for Joe Nathan to get his job back, and he did this weekend. Matt Capps is droppable. Now, let's move on to the only other name we've been promoting for as long: Koji Uehara. Kevin Gregg has a four-game suspension looming and just blew a save Sunday night. Sure, Mike Gonzalez got the save but that was only because Uehara had thrown another perfect inning in setup that same night. If it takes all season to happen, does it even count as happening in fantasy baseball? John Axford has gotten two straight saves with Francisco Rodriguez setting up both of them. That bullpen hierarchy is set for now. Brian Wilson got the save on Sunday… after walking the bases loaded. His walk rate could become a problem this year. Ryan Madson came back from the DL, did fine in his first outing and struggled in his second. He was replaced by Antonio Bastardo, who also gave up a run. Brad Lidge wants to be back July 22nd. The Phillies are rumored to be in on some closers on the trade market. You'll want to rank it Madson, Lidge, other reliever, Bastardo most likely. Joel Hanrahan blew a save. He's still awesome. Mark Melancon blew a save. He's not an elite reliever by peripherals, but his team needs him in that closer role because they don't have many other good relievers. David Hernandez earned a save but J.J. Putz should be back from his elbow soon enough.

* A few offensive performances deserve more than a sentence. Albert Pujols hit his 20th home run. Did you think he was having a bad year? Hanley Ramirez had a home run and a stolen base Sunday and six hits over the weekend -- he's smoking hot. Aramis Ramirez had two doubles Sunday and a home run Saturday to continue his scorching month. Mitch Moreland was dropped to ninth in the order to Sunday to get him to relax. He hit a home run, but he's more about showing a decent batting average and a good walk rate. The move in the order might actually help him on one of those counts. Teammate Ian Kinsler hit two home runs Saturday. Off Felix Hernandez. Then he was hit in the helmet on Sunday by Blake Beavan (who did decently, striking out three, walking two and giving up three earned in 6 2/3 innings). He says he is fine, and that he could see straight and knew what was going on. Jemile Weeks got two hits and even though he's all batting average and speed -- which can be a volatile mix without patience -- he's ownable in most leagues. Just don't depend on him to do this all year. Matt Joyce fouled a ball of his knee, grimaced, stepped back in and hit a home run Saturday. Then he missed Sunday's game and is day-to-day going forward. Zack Cozart hit his first major league home run Sunday and looks like he can be a mixed league play in the middle infield even if his long-term upside is perhaps muted. It's not like the Reds have another shortstop worth playing right now.

* Catchers catching up include Matt Wieters and Carlos Santana. A little bad luck on batted balls held Santana's batting average down and if he pairs a better average with that power he'll be a top three catcher this year. He had two hits and his 15th home run Sunday. Matt Wieters has been better than you think, as long as you compare his numbers to other catchers. He hit his tenth home run Sunday. Victor Martinez collected his 51st and 52nd RBI of the season on Sunday. By being in the lineup and having a sweet stroke and approach at the plate, he's still worth his price even if there's not a ton of power coming in the second half necessarily. Wilson Ramos collected three hits over the weekend and is playable but not hugely exciting in all formats. He'll play even more with Ivan Rodriguez shut down from swinging on rehab recently.

National League Quick Hits: Mike Stanton hit two home runs Saturday and he's giving exactly what was expected of him on draft day, which makes him a bargain … Shaun Marcum left Sunday's game with a strained neck but says he'll be fine … Dan Hudson threw a complete game and drove in three at the plate and we're fawning and saying we've been saying he's been great all year … Jeff Keppinger had three hits and a home run against the Pirates and can keep giving you an empty batting average at a tough position if he keeps playing every day … Carlos Beltran (flu) missed a couple games … Freddie Freeman singled home the winning run and there's no way he can't keep doing what he's doing, even if there's also no reason to necessarily think he'll improve … Danny Espinosa is a top-ten second baseman despite his batting average, and he hit a home run and collected two other hits Sunday … Chase Headley (calf) missed two games but an MRI showed nothing … Chipper Jones (knee) took 20 swings and hopes to be ready by July 25th … Javier Vazquez continued his march towards usability in all leagues by striking out 11 Cubs in seven innings … Tom Gorzelanny was injured in a collision at the plate but it's pretty much just a twisted ankle … Jose Tabata (quad) was held out of the High-A lineup for the third straight day and his rehab is not going swimmingly … Brandon Allen hit his first home run Saturday and is a great deep league power play, mixed league relevant if he can truly cut the strikeouts down … Jason Bourgeois (quad) is moving up to Triple-A to extend his rehab … The Astros manager says Chris Johnson, not Matt Downs, will get most of the playing time at third base going forward … Chris Volstad's velocity is a little up, but the results have been worse -- he gave up four runs in just three innings against the Cubs … Randy Wells allowed his four runs in six innings but is no more ownable … Alex Presley had three hits and a stolen base Sunday but doesn't really have a ton of power or speed once that batting average returns to earth … Ryan Doumit will begin a rehab assignment this week … The Padres put Jason Bartlett (who had two steals Saturday) on the paternity leave list and recalled Everth Cabrera to replace him … Aaron Cook walked three, struck out one, and gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Brewers and isn't ownable in most leagues … Nick Punto (elbow) could have season-ending elbow surgery soon … Josh Wilson is playing more in front of Yuniesky Betancourt, which just means that Jamey Carroll or Rafael Furcal is on the way.

American League Quick Hits: Erik Bedard (knee) threw a successful bullpen Sunday ... Adam Dunn doubled and scored a run, which counts as big news for him these days … Denard Span (concussion) and Jason Kubel (foot) are going to get as many as 45 at-bats on their upcoming rehab stints before rejoining the Twins … Clay Buchholz (back) still has no timetable … Max Scherzer gave up two runs in eight innings with six strikeouts but remains maddeningly inconsistent … John Danks will return Thursday, though it's not official yet … David Ortiz thinks a decision about his suspension appeal is coming soon … Travis Snider stayed hot, collecting two hits Sunday and four for the weekend, but his strikeout rate still means batting average won't be his strength … The Royals are not thinking of demoting Mike Moustakas, they promise … Jed Lowrie should start a rehab assignment this week … Scott Sizemore hit a walkoff RBI single Saturday night and is playing well enough in Oakland to fill a lot of deep league lineup holes … Juan Pierre had four hits with two stolen bases Saturday and needs to do just enough to keep his starting job for you deep league owners … Vernon Wells stole a base Saturday … Rafael Soriano (elbow) successfully bullpenned again and has been cleared to go out on assignment … Mike Carp is back in Seattle, with Carlos Pegeruo headed the other way to work on making more contact; Even if Carp may be a one-year wonder he's worth a pickup in some leagues … Brian Duensing is average enough across the board that he's at least a spot start in most leagues, and he allowed three runs in 6 1/3 with two strikeouts and one walk Sunday … Tigers prospect Jacob Turner is both close to the bigs and unlikely to come up this season according to his GM … Shortstop prospect Grant Green was moved to center field by the Athletics … Wade Davis (forearm) will have a bullpen Monday and if it goes well, he might not need a rehab stint … Jim Johnson is going to enter the rotation, but remember that everyone's stuff plays better in the pen before you rush to get him … Joel Pineiro gave up eight runs while getting one out, and isn't ownable going forward because he's lost his ground-ball rate even … Alex Cobb will start Monday's game for the Rays, but it's against the Yankees … Josh Bell is up in Baltimore but hasn't solved his plate discipline problems … Anthony Swarzak will pitch game one of the series against the Indians but doesn't get the whiffs to be a good option right now … Fernando Rodney will need one more rehab appearance before returning … Charlie Furbush might be up again Wednesday to start.

 

[HacheMan]

Trends: Vazquez Rejuvenation
SURGING

Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA

Stats: 3-1 with a 1.39 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 26/1 K/BB ratio in his last five starts (32.2 IP).

Bottom line: Vazquez earned a mention in this column last week, then went out and essentially made himself a must-add in mixed leagues with a season-high 10 strikeouts in seven innings against the Cubs on Saturday. Yes, he was absolutely awful early in the season (and had a 7.09 ERA as recently as June 11), but Vazquez is showcasing dominant control right now with pitches ranging from a 70 mph slow curve to a fastball in the low-90's. Add him if he's still available in your mixed league.

Andres Torres, OF, SF

Stats: .364 avg (8-for-22) with four runs, three RBI and three steals in his last five games prior to a Monday night matchup with the Dodgers.

Bottom line: It's been a disappointing season for Torres after his breakout 16-homer, 26-steal campaign in 2010, but the 33-year-old is finally showing signs of a potential spike in production. He still has just one homer since May 30, but owners in need of steals and runs shouldn't hesitate to take a look at Torres, who's currently owned in 21 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK

Stats: .563 avg (9-for-16) with three runs, three RBI and three steals in his last four games.

Bottom line: Oakland's leadoff man doesn't have much in the way of power (three homers in 322 at-bats between Triple-A and the majors combined), and hitting atop the A's lineup isn't exactly the most plentiful way to score runs. With that said, Weeks' ability as a base-stealer makes him a legitimate consideration in shallow mixed leagues. The 24-year-old (owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues) recorded his fourth straight multi-hit game on Sunday, and collected three steals over the weekend to give him 10 in just 138 at-bats so far.

Jeff Niemann, SP, TB

Stats: 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 26/9 K/BB ratio in five starts since returning from the DL (30.1 IP).

Bottom line: I very nearly recommended Niemann here last week, and am now verbally berating myself for not doing so after seeing him record arguably the greatest start of his career against the Red Sox on Sunday (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB and a career-high 10 K's in a 1-0 loss). Don't let those strikeouts fool you into thinking that Niemann is a big strikeout pitcher (prior to that his season-high was six), but he has shut down the Yankees and Red Sox in consecutive starts and is worth considering in mixed leagues given his recent run. (For the record, if Rubby De La Rosa is still available in your league, I would rather add the bazooka-armed young Dodger over the lower-upside Niemann at this point.)

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, TOR

Stats: .481 avg (13-for-27) with nine runs and four RBI in his last six games.

Bottom line: After hitting just two homers in his first 56 games, Encarnacion has hit four in his last 18. He's certainly not a must-add, but finished last year strong (eight homers in his last 16 games) and is capable of hammering out a couple of five- or six-homer months before the season is over.

Alex Presley, OF, PIT

Stats: .343 avg (23-for-67) with a homer, 12 runs, nine RBI and four steals prior to a Monday night matchup with Cincinnati.

Bottom line: I mentioned Presley in this column last week, but the current Pittsburgh leadoff man gets another shout here after going 3-for-6 with three RBI and a steal on Sunday, giving him a .370 average (10-for-27) with seven runs, two steals and four multi-hit games in his last six. The return of Jose Tabata (quad) may not be good for Presley's cause, but if the diminutive lefty continues to swing well, Presley has a solid chance to continue seeing regular at-bats atop the Pittsburgh order even after Tabata returns.

STRUGGLING

Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD

Stats: 1-for-22 in his last six games; .122 avg (6-for-49) overall in July.

Bottom line: Ludwick had a glorious seven-game run of four homers and 13 RBI during a trip to thin air in Colorado and Arizona back in June, but he has just three homers in 51 games since. He's likely to run into another hot streak or two at some point, but there's no need to carry him on a roster in shallow mixed leagues right now.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns, rankings, projections and more, check out Rotoworld's MLB Season Pass.

Jayson Werth, OF, WAS

Stats: 4-for-34 in his last nine games; .157 avg (8-for-51) in July; .146 avg (14-for-96) with no homers in 26 games since June 17 (prior to a Monday night matchup with Houston).

Bottom line: If you want to expand the trend even more, Werth is actually hitting .155 (22-for-142) since the start of June, but at some point it begins to become somewhat gratuitous. In any case, given this horrendous slump – truly one of the most wretched we've spotted in this column all year – Werth isn't a valid starting option in any format right now, including NL-Only leagues. I would stop short of dropping him because he has shown glimpses of productivity (including a .287 average with four homers, 14 RBI, 13 runs and four steals back in May), but for the moment he doesn't look close to breaking out of it. At least he'll only be making $21 million at age 38 in 2017.

 

[HacheMan]

David Price: Great WHIP ... 3.73 ERA?

Jason Grey


In talking with David Price during the MLB All-Star Game festivities last week -- he missed the game itself with a case of turf toe, which is not expected to be an issue going forward -- he mentioned he was still not entirely happy with his consistency despite his first-half success.

"I'm just not being nearly as consistent right now as I was last year," Price said. "That's something I really harped on last year and did a good job of it, giving us a chance to win every five days."
Although he's holding the No. 19 slot as of Monday morning, the Rays southpaw entered the month of July out of the top 20 among starting pitchers in our Player Rater. An inflated 3.73 ERA has a lot to do with it, taking some of the shine off his 1.08 WHIP and K rate of almost a strikeout per inning. But as we've seen in the past, ERAs can be deceiving. Despite a mark that is more than a full run higher than his 2010 number, Price feels he's a better pitcher, and I would concur.
"My walks, my WHIP, my strikeouts … everything is a lot better than it was last year," Price said. "My record and my ERA are worse, and it's frustrating for me, because I'm a better pitcher right now. My good games this year compared to my good games last year, they're not even comparable. I feel like I've dominated a little more this year.
"It's a little frustrating to not have the success that I had last year, but I still have another half a season to get a hold of things. My body feels good, and my arm feels great."

Price seems keenly aware of his numbers, which reveal not only the best strikeout rate of his career but also his best walk rate, a sharp drop to less than two batters per nine innings. It all adds up to a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost 5-to-1.
I actually think his overall secondary stuff is better this season. Although he's still primarily a fastball pitcher who excels at getting outs just with that pitch, especially when he's dialing it up to 97 mph with some tail on it, Price's changeup has become more of a weapon this season, and he appears to have more confidence in the 81-84 mph offering. His curve and slider are still solid pitches as well, especially the latter, giving him a varied repertoire to go to when he wants to. Some scouts would like him to incorporate the other pitches a bit more, but it's not really an issue considering he has had full games in which he has dominated with nothing more than good fastball command.
Outside of a few more ill-timed homers this season, the one area of concern and major issue behind the ERA spike has been Price's performance from the stretch. In 2010, with runners on, Price allowed a .206 AVG/.283 OBP/.327 SLG line to opposing hitters. Thus far in 2011, it's .276/.338/.414.
"I just need to be able to make better pitches in big situations, especially with runners in scoring position." Price said when I asked him about that. "If I can do that, I'll be a lot better. Just execute. My stuff is there. Just execute pitches in those situations."
The good news is that I think it's just a matter of sharpening his delivery; it's a correctable issue over the final couple of months. When I've watched him, I've noticed an inconsistent tempo in his delivery from the stretch, and that has resulted in some command issues and bad location in those key situations, and at times he has tried to overcorrect. But again, I think it's fixable, and makes me very optimistic about him over the final couple months of the season.
It's obviously not going out on a limb to say that I think Price is going to be an excellent pitcher for the remainder of the season, but sometimes the analysis is simply that I'm expecting a pitcher who has been getting it done to keep getting it done with slightly better numbers going forward. Price will remain a bankable rotation anchor for the rest of the season. If you're looking to add a top-flight starter for the stretch run, Price can be your guy, perhaps even at a tiny discount while his ERA is still moderately high.

 

[HacheMan]

Can Jennings help Rays' iffy offense?

Eric Karabell

It's not that Boston Red Sox pitchers Josh Beckett, Alfredo Aceves and others weren't awesome in the Sunday night/Monday morning marathon -- perhaps I'll need a Monday afternoon nap to compensate -- but I couldn't help but wonder whether Tampa Bay Rays outfield prospect Desmond Jennings might have been able to help. The Red Sox earned their 1-0, 16-inning victory on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, as Rays hitters managed three singles in 50 at-bats against six pitchers. Jennings doubled twice among his three hits Saturday for the Triple-A Durham Bulls, then doubled again and scored twice Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Rays could certainly use a spark at the top of the lineup, one which ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring runs but really shouldn't be relying on the likes of Sam Fuld and Justin Ruggiano, not to mention Reid Brignac, Casey Kotchman (hitting cleanup, really?) and all their catchers. Yes, the Rays scored a healthy number of runs Friday and Saturday against the Red Sox, but Andrew Miller and John Lackey started those games. Let's be realistic.
I'm not saying the 24-year-old Jennings, who has consistently ranks well in colleague Jason Grey's prospect lists and is playing again after breaking a finger a few weeks ago, will save the offense, but he would help. Jennings is a right-handed speedster who has 33 extra base hits for the Bulls in 85 games, and he could steal many bases in the majors. This is his third season at Triple-A. It's time to promote him for good. For the record, I do think Jennings will become instantly attractive for ESPN standard leagues as a fourth or fifth outfielder, and he's available in 98.6 percent of leagues. It's possible Jennings could instantly become this team's fourth-best offensive player right away, for real life and fantasy (after Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist). If the Rays call him up this month, watch him hit six or seven home runs the final two months, with double-digit stolen bases and a .280 batting average.
<OFFER>Of course, it dawned on me as the Rays prepare to meet the New York Yankees on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball -- in what starts an interesting stretch that should decide whether they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline -- that very few current Rays are actually trending up. I like the Rays, but for them to stick with the Red Sox and Yankees, some of these strugglers need to turn things around. In fact, the following Rays don't really seem like wise buy-low options anymore. Let's discuss.
Evan Longoria, 3B: Surprised, eh? Longoria is hitting .233 for his injury-plagued season, and only .226 over the past month. Most people probably assume it's just a matter of time before he resumes being the top-10 talent we all told you he'd be. Well, not so fast. Although Longoria is driving in runs and is actually playing, he's playing through a foot problem and it's likely affecting him. I placed Longoria 25th in the ESPN midseason rankings, well below his March value. After seeing him at the plate this weekend, I think we all ranked him too high, like the NL's of Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Hope Longoria hits .275 the rest of the way, but don't expect it.

James Shields, SP: He was so terrible this past season that the fact he's lost four consecutive starts has people jumping off the considerable bandwagon. I'm not going that far, but then again, it does seem a bit implausible that Shields could keep his WHIP on the good side of 1.00 all year. Don't read too much into the six earned runs he permitted over the weekend because the Red Sox can absolutely hit with the best teams, but keep an eye on the free passes. Shields has seen his strikeout rate drop the past two months, while his walk rate has risen. Minor concerns perhaps, because he was so dominant, but I can't trade for him as a top-10 pitcher, which he currently is on the Player Rater.
Matt Joyce, OF: I probably don't need to tell people to run away from Fuld, since he did his best work in April. However, Joyce is hitting .180 since June 1. A shoulder injury contributed to his poor June, but then again, Joyce's BABIP was well over .400 for the first two months, which is generally unsustainable. Joyce has popped a few home runs in July but he's not walking and it's hard to view him as a better option than Jennings, for example, the rest of the way.
Other Rays thoughts: Kyle Farnsworth entered July having walked two hitters this season. He's walked five in 5 1/3 July innings. Not saying you run away from him, but if you're trading for a closer, he wouldn't be one of my top 15 choices. And I don't think Jake McGee saves games this season. … Why rip Kotchman, you might ask? Well, a hollow .333 batting average works at catcher or middle infield. But I can't really justify it at corner infield, though. Plus, I can't expect it to continue. Kotchman has never done something like this, and he's typically had this walk rate. When that .363 BABIP levels out, you don't want to have Kotchman active. … OK, I am no longer touting Sean Rodriguez anymore. Some right-handed batters never learn how to hit right-handed pitching, and he possesses neither the speed nor plate discipline to compensate.

 

[HacheMan]

Reyes Readies for Return
The Mets are finally about to get some help for their lifeless lineup. Jose Reyes played six innings at shortstop and went 1-for-3 with a double and a run scored Monday in a minor league rehab game with Class A Brooklyn, paving the way for his return from the disabled list Tuesday night against the Cardinals.

Reyes has been sidelined since straining his left hamstring while beating out an infield single against the Yankees on July 2. He was batting .354/.398/.529 with a .927 OPS prior to the injury and returns with a seven-game hitting streak. The impending free agent still ranks first in the National League in batting average and triples and second in runs scored and stolen bases.

The Mets averaged just 3.83 runs per game during Reyes' absence (4.48 runs per game prior to the injury) and it actually looks much worse when you take out the 11 runs they pounded out Saturday against Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Angel Pagan batted .192 with one homer and five RBI filling in for Reyes at the top of the lineup, so he wasn't exactly doing the job as a table setter.

The good news doesn't stop with Reyes, though. Carlos Beltran is expected to return to the lineup Tuesday after missing three games with the flu and David Wright went 3-for-6 in his latest rehab game with High-A St. Lucie on Monday and remains on track to rejoin the Mets on Friday in Florida.

While things are looking up for some valuable fantasy options in the Mets' lineup, here are some more news and notes from around a busy Monday in the baseball world.

- The Mets aren't the only National League East team getting well. Chipper Jones, who underwent surgery just 10 days ago to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, is tentatively scheduled to begin a minor league rehab assignment Friday with Class A Rome.

The Braves are sending Jones to Rome so that he can serve as the designated hitter. He'll likely play there on Friday and Saturday before being reevaluated. While he is eligible to return from the disabled list as soon as Sunday, he is not expected to rejoin the Braves until next Monday.

The 39-year-old Jones is batting .259/.340/.428 with eight home runs, 46 RBI and a .768 OPS over 329 plate appearances this season. He had a seven-game hitting streak going before deciding to go under the knife.

- This may be time to see what you can get for Mariners' rookie right-hander Michael Pineda. While the Mariners indicated last month that they wouldn't shut him down at any point this season, pitching coach Carl Willis told Greg Johns of MLB.com Monday that "his innings are going to be an issue."

What changed here? Well, the Mariners have lost nine consecutive games and now sit 11 1/2 games out of first place in the American League West. They simply have little incentive to keep Pineda on the mound well into September.

- Want to hear perhaps the most encouraging news of the day? Sure you do.

Nationals manager Davey Johnson said that rehabbing right-hander Stephen Strasburg topped out at 95 mph during a simulated game Monday afternoon in Viera, Florida. And that was Strasburg being "a little tentative," according to the skipper.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said that Strasburg is currently "early-mid spring training mode," but it's expected that he will need several more simulated games and batting practice sessions before going out on a minor league rehab assignment. However, if he continues to make progress, there's still a chance he could pitch with the Nationals in September.

NL Quick Hits: Roy Halladay exited Monday's start in the fifth inning with heat exhaustion, but is expected to make his next scheduled start … Ryan Braun (calf) was out of the lineup for the second straight day Monday, but is expected to avoid the disabled list … Shane Victorino (thumb) is expected to return from the disabled list Tuesday … Aramis Ramirez cited family concerns as the primary reason why he will not approve a trade … Jason Heyward was scratched from Monday's lineup with a left foot contusion … Shaun Marcum (neck) expects to make his next scheduled start … Ryan Vogelsong tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings in Monday's win over the Dodgers, lowering his NL-best ERA to 2.02 … Carlos Marmol walked two and struck out two over a scoreless inning of relief in a non-save situation Monday against the Phillies … Placido Polanco (back) could receive a cortisone injection on Thursday … Padres reliever Mike Adams has applied for a passport just in case he is traded to an American League team … Mike Morse hit his first homer in 15 games Monday night against the Astros … Jonathan Sanchez (biceps) was smoked for six runs on six hits over 2 2/3 innings Sunday in his first minor league rehab start with High-A San Jose … Miguel Tejada left Monday's game with a lower abdominal strain … Chris Coghlan was pulled from his rehab assignment after suffering a setback with his left knee … Tom Gorzelanny (ankle) isn't sure if he'll be ready for his next start … Scott Hairston is day-to-day after fouling a ball off his left shin Monday … Mark DeRosa will resume his rehab assignment with Triple-A Fresno on Tuesday after going 2-for-5 with a double and a walk in two rehab games with High-A San Jose over the weekend … Clay Hensley held the injury-plagued Mets to just one hit over five scoreless innings Monday in his first start since 2008 … Ivan Rodriguez (oblique) hit off a tee and took soft toss without any pain Monday … The Nationals activated Jerry Hairston Jr. from the disabled list Monday … Edinson Volquez allowed five runs (four earned) over six innings Sunday in his latest start with Triple-A Louisville …

AL Quick Hits: Carl Crawford (hamstring) went 2-for-5 with an RBI single and two runs scored in his return from the disabled list Monday … Red Sox DH David Ortiz and Orioles closer Kevin Gregg began serving respective three-game suspensions Monday as a result of their benches-clearing incident on July 8 … Joe Mauer went 6-for-8 in Monday's doubleheader against the Indians … The Indians placed Grady Sizemore (knee) on the 15-day disabled list with a right knee contusion … Jon Lester (strained lat) is on track to return from the disabled list next Monday against the Royals … Justin Morneau (neck) will begin baseball activities this week … The Orioles finalized a three-year, $22.5 million contract extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy … Alex Gordon sat out Monday's game after fouling a ball off his right foot Sunday … Scott Baker (elbow) will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday or Thursday before the Twins decide whether he will make his next scheduled start … Clay Buchholz (back) played catch from 120 feet Monday, but there's no timetable for him to throw from a mound … In his return from the disabled list Monday, Fausto Carmona (quad) allowed two runs over seven innings as the Indians swept a doubleheader from the Twins … Juan Pierre is batting .409 (18-for-44) on his current 10-game hitting streak … Julio Borbon is expected to miss six weeks after undergoing surgery Monday to repair ligaments in his left ankle … Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the Angels have interest in Wilson Betemit … Ramiro Pena underwent an emergency appendectomy Monday and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks … Eric Chavez (foot, back, abdomen) will begin a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday with High-A Tampa … Danny Duffy will be recalled from Triple-A Omaha to start Tuesday against the White Sox … The Rays have promoted prospect left-hander Matt Moore to Triple-A Durham …

 

[HacheMan]

Which pitchers face innings limits?

Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com


Just call it "Innings Cap Tuesday."

Five 25-and-under pitchers who could face potential innings caps, including the two most frequently cited candidates, Michael Pineda and Jordan Zimmermann, who are scheduled to start on Tuesday. It's no coincidence; Pineda and Zimmermann specifically were slotted into the fifth spots in their respective rotations, which lined them up for that day, as their teams begin to manage their workloads out of the All-Star break.


What better time to examine one of the more aggravating trends of 21st century baseball, the dreaded "Innings Cap"?


Whatever your opinion on the topic, meticulous management of young pitchers' workloads is a way of life, and fantasy owners must prepare pitching staffs accordingly. My opinion: There is far too much emphasis on innings pitched, which shouldn't be the only measure of a pitcher's workload, as things such as total pitches, stressful pitches (granted, that's not a recorded statistical category) and a pitcher's injury track record should also be taken into account.


Unfortunately that's often not the public stance, the emphasis remaining on innings. Many teams openly admit to planned innings caps for their young hurlers, sometimes as early as spring training. Others don't reveal their plans until shutdown day. But the root of the strategy is the same: Teams don't like affording 25-and-under pitchers more than a 30-inning increase from one season to the next, an indicator often referred to as the "Verducci Effect," named for reporter Tom Verducci, who brought it to the mainstream.


The impact on fantasy owners is the same, no matter the team's approach: We lose key stats from our young pitchers at the most critical stage of our seasons, those September weeks that decide championships, especially in head-to-head formats. We must prepare, usually as early in the season as this (and arguably earlier, depending upon how competitive your league).


Today's column serves a reference guide to pitchers at greatest risk of facing an innings cap in 2011. These are pitchers who today are no older than 25 and are currently on pace to exceed their 2010 innings totals by more than 30. Each is listed with his current pace, which takes his major and minor league innings total and projects it over his big league team's remaining games, and his resulting innings increase based upon that pace. A "worry level," ranging from low to moderate to high to extreme, is also included.



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roy Halladay, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Felix Hernandez, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Verlander, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cliff Lee, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">CC Sabathia, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jered Weaver, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cole Hamels, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clayton Kershaw, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Lincecum, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Price, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tommy Hanson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Zack Greinke, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Cain, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Haren, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James Shields, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jon Lester, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Beckett, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ubaldo Jimenez, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Anibal Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Hudson, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Yovani Gallardo, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Daniel Hudson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Carpenter, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jhoulys Chacin, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mat Latos, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">C.J. Wilson, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Romero, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shaun Marcum, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Cueto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jair Jurrjens, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kennedy, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gio Gonzalez, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Morrow, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jordan Zimmermann, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Garza, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Trevor Cahill, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jaime Garcia, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chad Billingsley, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Pineda, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Beachy, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ricky Nolasco, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Max Scherzer, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Madison Bumgarner, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Scott Baker, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Lewis, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Wandy Rodriguez, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Tim Stauffer, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hiroki Kuroda, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Dempster, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Vogelsong, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ervin Santana, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bud Norris, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Hellickson, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Masterson, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ted Lilly, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Edwin Jackson, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Philip Humber, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Vargas, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Carrasco, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">John Danks, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gavin Floyd, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathan Sanchez, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Myers, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bartolo Colon, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Phil Hughes, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Francisco Liriano, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Clay Buchholz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jake Peavy, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Doug Fister, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carl Pavano, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aaron Harang, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">A.J. Burnett, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Harrison, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexi Ogando, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cory Luebke, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Randy Wolf, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Leake, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Erik Bedard, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Javier Vazquez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kyle Lohse, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Lowe, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Holland, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bronson Arroyo, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Tomlin, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Johnson, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeremy Guthrie, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">R.A. Dickey, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dillon Gee, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jonathon Niese, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">James McDonald, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Zambrano, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Correia, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Freddy Garcia, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Homer Bailey, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Felipe Paulino, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jake Arrieta, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Pelfrey, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Karstens, Pit </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Cecil, Tor </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Niemann, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (194-inning pace, plus-123 1/3): His is the most prominent name in this year's debate, and if you regard that 123 1/3-innings bump as misleading due to his 2010 recovery from Tommy John surgery, comparing Zimmermann's 2011 innings pace to his previous career high of 134 innings, set in 2008, still results in a 60-inning bump. He's 25 years old but has just 472 2/3 professional innings on his arm, and thus the Nationals have been open about their desire to cap him, somewhere in the ballpark of 160-170 innings, depending on which of their beat reporters you believe most. Zimmermann has averaged 6.39 innings per start this season; at that pace he has eight or nine starts remaining, the first coming on Tuesday. If he keeps pitching every fifth game, that means his final start would come either Aug. 27 in Cincinnati or Sept. 2 versus the New York Mets. Or the Nationals could use off days to push him back in the rotation, which A) could throw him off his rhythm or B) be an obvious heads-up to your trade counterparts that he's facing a hard cap. Either way, it's a negative, and you should shop him in a re-draft league. Worry level: Extreme.


Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers (187 1/3-innings pace, plus-101 2/3): He is the oldest player on the list, as he'll turn 26 on Sept. 16; he has the most professional seasons under his belt (eight, though he's tied); and he has the most 150-inning seasons as a pro (three). The Rangers need him, and they're not about to overly sweat it with a soon-to-be-26-year-old. Worry level: Low.


Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals (158 2/3-innings pace, plus-96 1/3): Finally an explanation for the Royals' six-man rotation! In all seriousness, that might have entered into their decision-making, as going six deep will slow Duffy's innings accumulation; it would afford him, at most, 11 more starts and, at his current rate of 5.22 innings per start, he would tally 57 1/3 more innings (for 151 1/3 innings total, which still puts him 89 innings ahead of his 2010 number and 24 2/3 ahead of his career high of 126 2/3, set in 2009). The Kansas City Star reported on July 7 the Royals plan to keep Duffy on turn until late August, at which point they'll decide whether to cap his innings. Either way, that means the team can mathematically have only three two-start pitchers the next six weeks, so the six-man angle hurts in fantasy. (Wait, do fantasy owners really want Royals pitchers?) Worry level: High.


Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (205 1/3-innings pace, plus-76): He's the "surprise" name on this list, but the only surprise should be that he's just 25 years old. He qualifies but is an awkward entrant; his career high in innings is 215, set in 2009, and he tallied 188 1/3 in 2008, both of those accrued entirely at the big league level. Jurrjens has also been the Braves' most effective starter to date; they're not going to shut him down. Worry level: Low.


Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (199-inning pace, plus-76 2/3): He's the curious case, as most people remember him pitching deep into last October, but even adding his postseason frames he totaled 134 1/3 in 2010, the rotator cuff injury that cost him two midsummer months effectively serving to cap his workload. Now that he's a year older and more experienced, sporting an average of 138 2/3 innings between the majors and minors the past three seasons, might the Rangers be willing to pitch him without restraint? Perhaps, but they should be smart, being that they appear postseason bound once again. A skipped turn or two in September is possible if the Rangers clinch early. Worry level: Moderate.

Jacob Turner, Detroit Tigers (178 1/3-innings pace, plus-63): Rumors that he would claim the fifth-starter role beginning today turned out to be just that, rumors, and a primary reason the Tigers haven't been quick to promote him is their concern about his workload. Turner, still in Double-A, had a start skipped in June and got an extended rest during the recent All-Star break, and there's little chance he'll be afforded as many as 150 innings, let alone 178 1/3. We might not see him in the majors before 2012. Worry level: Extreme.


Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays (176 1/3-innings pace, plus-56 2/3): Sorry to spoil your excitement after his solid outing Monday against the New York Yankees, giving him four quality starts in his six tries to begin his big league career, but the greatest obstacle facing Cobb now is a potential innings cap. He's well over pace and has never exceeded 139 2/3 innings in a season (2008), and the Rays have a bevy of rotation candidates who can afford him rest. Worry level: High.


Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners (193-inning pace, plus-53 2/3): It is a debate that has raged on for weeks, Will they or won't they? That, of course, refers to the Mariners' puzzling declaration that they don't plan to cap Pineda's innings. No matter their public stance, the hints that they will are subtle: They pushed him back in the rotation exiting the All-Star break, a common strategy with innings-cap candidates; not to mention pitching coach Carl Willis told the team's official website on Monday, "I've mapped out a rotation through Sept. 1 that allows us to utilize off-days with him, give him as much rest as possible." Look at the Mariners' schedule; they have days off on July 28, Aug. 4, Aug. 11, Aug. 18 and Aug. 25, or five consecutive Thursdays, and a final one on Thursday, Sept. 15. After his scheduled starts today and Sunday, they could slot him in five consecutive Tuesdays to provide him extra rest; pitch him on regular turn on Sept. 4, 9 and 14; then shut him down for the year. At his current rate of 6.28 innings per start, that would result in 28 starts and 175 2/3 innings, still 36 1/3 more than his 2010 number. Even that might be excessive; remember that an elbow injury limited him to just 47 1/3 frames in 2009.


Ultimately, Pineda's innings will inevitably be managed looking forward, diminishing his two-start opportunities and perhaps throwing him off his rhythm. Look to 2010 examples Phil Hughes and Mat Latos: After their first non-All-Star break-related schedule shifts, Hughes had a 5.07 ERA (16 starts, two relief), Latos a 4.93 (eight starts). In re-draft leagues, this is probably your final opportunity to sell high with Pineda. Worry level: High.


Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals (211 1/3-innings pace, plus-48): One of two men to make the list in consecutive seasons, Garcia's workload is of concern for two reasons: that he has recovered from Tommy John surgery (September 2008) and that the Cardinals fancy themselves contenders and might need him for October baseball. A skipped start or two is possible. Worry level: Moderate.


Kyle Weiland, Boston Red Sox (167 1/3-innings pace, plus-39): He has never been rated one of the Red Sox's top prospects, ranked the team's No. 23, 26 and 20 prospect by Baseball America the past three seasons, respectively, but the Red Sox aren't an organization that will foolishly push a youngster. More importantly, they recognize Weiland isn't the kind of pitcher sure to carry them to the postseason; the concern of an innings cap is far less than the chance they might soon replace him with a midseason acquisition. Worry level: High.


Zach Stewart, Toronto Blue Jays (174 1/3-innings pace, plus-38): Last season, the Blue Jays capped Brandon Morrow but not Brett Cecil, so what do they regard Stewart, more Morrow or Cecil? Stewart was ranked the team's No. 5 prospect by Baseball America this preseason, but he has been ordinary in repeating Double-A; maybe they'll keep him there and cap him. Worry level: Moderate.


Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks (226-inning pace, plus-37 1/3): Standings might very well decide this, as entering Tuesday's play the Diamondbacks are 3.5 games back in the National League West and five games out in the wild-card race. If they're to advance to October, they'll need to lean on Hudson, easily their most valuable starter. A 226-inning season might be bothersome when evaluating his 2012 prospects, but there's little doubt he could handle 200-plus. He's 24 years old and has thrown 166 and 188 2/3 the past two years. Worry level: Low.


Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies (207 2/3-innings pace, plus-34 2/3): He's in a funk, going 0-3 with a 6.17 ERA in his past four starts, and if the Rockies continue to slip in the playoff races, they might provide him some September rest if they're non-contenders and feel he needs it. But a 34 2/3-innings bump isn't that worrisome, and he has topped 170 frames twice as a pro already. Worry level: Moderate.


Rubby De La Rosa, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 2/3-innings pace, plus-34 1/3): There's little doubt he'll be capped, as a 22-year-old who has shuffled back and forth between the rotation and bullpen throughout his five-year professional career. De La Rosa might be the most likely of anyone on this list not to throw a pitch in the month of September, as the Dodgers are clear non-contenders. John Ely, currently in Triple-A, could easily replace him. Worry level: Extreme.


Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (187-inning pace, plus-33 2/3): The Orioles have already begun the capping process, demoting Britton to Double-A Bowie following his nightmarish July 8 start in Boston (2/3 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 7 ER) and restricting his workload in the minors. Many reports hint that he could return to the big club after July 30 but that he faces a cap of no more than 175 innings, meaning he'll still need to skip a few more turns. Britton might yet have five or six more useful starts to offer fantasy owners, but he's also now high-risk; his schedule already having been altered. Worry level: High.


Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (172-inning pace, plus-33 2/3): Leake's workload is an intriguing debate. Do the Reds regard his future as bright enough that they would cap him, or do they consider him more of a No. 3 or 4 who shouldn't have his hands tied? It's probably closer to the latter, but they also have enough starting-pitching depth to replace him if necessary, something that might happen if they slip in the NL Central race by September. Worry level: Moderate.


Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (176-inning pace, plus-33 1/3): In addition to the Braves' absurd amount of starting-pitching depth keeping him stuck in Triple-A, the strike against Teheran is that he's just 20 years old and a top prospect and therefore a virtual lock to be capped. Barring a surprise trade in the next two weeks, Teheran might use up all of his innings for Gwinnett before he could ever be recalled. Worry level: High.


Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves (194-inning pace, plus-33): He has an advantage over Teheran in the call-up pecking order for three simple reasons: that he threw more 2010 innings, 161 to Teheran's 142 2/3; that he's three years older; and that he had three quality starts in five tries in his most recent stint with the big club. But it might be moot: The Braves have a solid current five, and certainly have four they would prefer to Minor in a potential playoff series. He might be capped because the Braves won't ever need him, but if they do need him, there isn't a lot to sweat. Worry level: Low.


Currently outside the "danger zone"

These four pitchers aren't on pace to exceed their 2010 innings totals by more than 30, but any acceleration could shift them into the above group.



Jordan Lyles, Houston Astros (179-inning pace, plus-29 1/3): The Astros have already made public their plans to cap the rookie's innings, that number 165-170, per the Houston Chronicle. But looking at his pace and projecting his 5.58 innings-per-start average forward, he could still make as many as 11 more turns in the Astros' final 66 games. He might need to skip only two starts in September.


Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays (178 2/3-innings pace, plus-23): The Rays have been cautious enough with Hellickson so far, last and this year, and his pace isn't of grave concern. There's only one reason to monitor him: He might be one of their four best starters if they advance to the postseason, in which case he'd breeze past that 178 2/3-innings number, counting October frames. Of course, they would probably need him to keep pitching just to get there.


Jonathon Niese, New York Mets (201 2/3-innings pace, plus-22): He's one of the older pitchers on the list, a 24-year-old who turns 25 in October. He threw 179 2/3 innings last season and the Mets lack viable rotation alternatives. The Mets probably won't hesitate to let him throw 200-plus frames.


Tyler Chatwood, Los Angeles Angels (174 1/3-innings pace, plus-19): He's just 21 years old, so don't be too quick to proclaim that a 185 1/3-innings cap is a "smart" total (he threw 155 1/3 in 2010). He was the Angels' No. 2 prospect as judged by Baseball America in the preseason and that's a lot of frames for such a young starter, as he has 413 as a pro already. I don't even think he'll get to 174 1/3. More likely, he'll be shut down if the Angels fade in September.


Why isn't Alexi Ogando on this list?



It's simple: He's 27 years old, and will turn 28 on Oct. 5, so he wasn't even within range of the "under-25" criteria I used to generate the list. That said, Ogando's workload bears watching, despite his advanced age, as not only does he already boast a career high in innings (104 2/3), his pace of 176 2/3 innings would exceed his entire professional total entering 2011 … by 23 1/3 innings! (He had 153 1/3 from 2006-10, primarily because he didn't begin pitching until 2006, then made 56 relief appearances compared to only three starts.)


Ogando, who was a regression candidate even before accounting for his workload bump, has struggled recently, almost directly coinciding with his setting a career high in innings. Consider: In the 11 starts it took for him to set that new personal best, he was 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. In six starts since, he's 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The Rangers also need to consider potential postseason usage, and even if they're unwilling to cap his innings, he might suffer the consequences with either more lackluster numbers in August and September and/or in 2012. He's as much of a sell-high candidate as anyone profiled.


Three up



Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Two starts might typically not be enough a sample size from which to make solid judgments, but when those two include such encouraging signs as Hughes', it's not unfair for fantasy owners to act. (Remember, we often must make swift judgments.) Velocity was the most prominent for Hughes: After averaging a mere 89.0 mph with his fastball in his first three starts of 2011, he increased that number to 91.5 in his past two outings, which is a heck of a lot closer to the 92.4 he averaged during his breakout 2010. Another: His breaking pitches were considerably more effective, his curveball, cutter and slider, which accounted for 46.7 percent of his total offerings in those two outings, limiting opponents to .227/.261/.273 rates in the 24 plate appearances that ended in one; his numbers were .429/.478/1.000 with those in 23 PAs in his first three turns. Hughes also got opponents to miss on 12.3 percent of his swings, closer to his 19.6 number in 2010, and swing at more pitches outside the strike zone, his 28.2 percent of those in line with his 28.4 percent in 2010. He's not 100 percent "back" … but at his current rate of progression he might be by Aug. 1.


Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays: Finally we're seeing the Morrow many of us -- myself included -- expected entering the season, as in his past six starts he's 4-0 with five quality starts, a 2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K's per nine. But his hot streak is more than surface stats; consider the difficulty of matchups during that time. If you take his opponents' team OPS and split them by home and road games and rank them 1-60 (30 teams times two, ranked by each home and road OPS), here are the "difficulty ratings" of Morrow's past six assignments, working forward: Ninth, 21st, 33rd, first, 10th, 11th. That's right, only one of his starts -- the June 29 home game against the Pittsburgh Pirates -- ranked in the lower half, and barely at that. If you're worried about the difficulty of Morrow's matchups looking forward, there's no stronger defense than that.


Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins: Speaking of recaptured velocity, that has also been the plus for Vazquez during his recent hot spell. He has four consecutive quality starts and has a 1.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his past six turns, and during those six he has averaged 94.1 mph with his fastball, considerably higher than the 93.3 mph he averaged during his down 2010 and much closer to the 94.8 he sported during his outstanding 2008. Whether Vazquez can sustain that for the remainder of the year is a reasonable question; unlike the 25-year-old Hughes, age is not on his side (he's nine years older). Fantasy owners should recognize the improvement and enjoy this streak, but at the same time, prepare as if it's merely that: A hot streak.


Three down



Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: He is certainly turning into a streaky pitcher, following up an impressive nine-start stretch during which time he had six quality starts, seven wins, a 2.55 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, with a lackluster three-game stretch to begin July, posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.07 WHIP. Carrasco thrives upon generating a high rate of ground balls; he had a 53.8 percent ground-ball rate during his nine-start hot spell, but just 46.0 percent so far in July. One reason: He's keeping the ball up in the zone, 27.6 percent of his pitches in his past three starts judged "up," an increase from 24.3 during his nine-start hot spell. Yes, we're talking small samples, but a 3.3 percent differential means three more pitches per 100, and sure enough, he has served up four home runs during his three-start slump. Make Carrasco earn another chance with a solid outing before you reactivate him.


Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees: Just as quickly as that, questions surround Colon, the right-hander himself admitting that he has concerns about the left hamstring injury that cost him about three weeks in June. He told the New York Daily News this past Saturday that, while he no longer feels pain in the hamstring, he's "a little bit nervous or afraid to push" off the leg. That's as good an explanation as any for his disastrous back-to-back outings totaling 13 runs (eight earned) on 16 hits in 6 1/3 innings, and let's not forget that there was a stamina question in the first place, as he's a 38-year-old who totaled just 257 innings in the big leagues from 2006-10 combined. Perhaps Colon regains confidence in his hamstring and returns to his former fantasy-ace form in a week or two. But isn't it a fair question at this point to ask whether he'll hold up for another 12-plus turns?


Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: Injuries are also a worry with Peavy, who already had his first start of the second half pushed back two days due to fatigue. The average velocity of his pitches during his most recent start on July 10 was 85.4 mph, his second-lowest number of the season, and his lowest (85.3) came a mere two starts earlier. Sure enough, Peavy has a 7.71 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his past three starts combined, the most recent two in matchups that shouldn't have posed problems for a healthy starter (home, versus Royals and Twins). He already has made two trips to the disabled list this season and has four total in the past two calendar years; all that talk about his delivery putting strain on his arm during his San Diego Padres days might indeed be having an adverse effect today.

 

[HacheMan]

The secret to Kimbrel's, Walden's success

Jason Grey

The 2011 baseball season has shown us yet again that you can still get saves, even elite stoppers, on the cheap. The No. 1 reliever on our Player Rater, the Braves' Craig Kimbrel, was the 22nd reliever picked, on average, in ESPN live drafts this preseason. The No. 3 reliever, the Pirates' Joel Hanrahan, was picked 27th. The Angels' Jordan Walden, 19th on the Player Rater (15th when you toss out the starting pitchers who qualify as relievers) and climbing, was, on average, the 36th relief pitcher taken this spring.

Kimbrel has always possessed the raw stuff that ranks right up there with any pitcher in baseball. He can be unhittable when he's on, and this year he has been able to find his control, for the most part, dropping his walk rate to less than four batters per nine innings while still being able to fan more than 14 batters per nine.
"It's always been 'throw the ball over the plate and you're going to be more successful,'" Kimbrel told me last week. "I give a lot of credit to my pitching coach and my catchers. Some of it is pitch selection, with those guys figuring out what guys are going to swing at or not swing at."
His improvement has resulted in a strikeouts-to-walk ratio of 3.75-to-1 and helped him convert 29 saves in 34 chances. Kimbrel's high-90s fastball and sharp slider are both so tough to get the barrel of the bat on that he has allowed just one homer in 68 2/3 big league innings.
Kimbrel's mechanics aren't any different than they were a year and a half ago, but they are more consistent and he repeats his delivery better, which has resulted in the control gains. His arm doesn't come through late as often as it once did, and he seems to have better tempo. I asked Kimbrel if he just thinks more experience has been the difference.
"I'd say so," Kimbrel agreed. "I understand my mechanics a little better, and what I can and can't do, and it's worked out."
It certainly has thus far, and barring injury I expect it to continue to do so.

• Although Walden was a minor league starter initially, I had him pegged as a late-innings reliever from the first time I saw him in instructional league play in 2007. (You can view my original pro-style 20-to-80 scouting report from then in this August 26, 2010, profile of Walden.)
"The best thing that ever happened to me was going to the bullpen," Walden said when I spoke to him shortly after talking to Kimbrel. "As a starter, my arm was never healthy, and it wouldn't bounce back."
Very few people expected Fernando Rodney to keep the Angels' closer job for long, and Walden was clearly being groomed for the role. Indeed, Rodney's time in the ninth inning was over by April 5, and Walden replaced him.
"I didn't expect it to happen at all," Walden said. "But [manager Mike Scioscia] made the decision to put me in there, and I'm very happy I'm a closer. I don't know what I'd be doing without [the job]."
Walden's 97-99 mph heater is a heavy ball that is tough for hitters to elevate, especially with some of the funkiness in his delivery, and like Kimbrel, he can keep the ball in the yard (two homers allowed in 54 1/3 major league innings), which is a key trait for a consistent stopper. Though his control can be shaky at times, he has kept the walks to just less than four per nine innings, acceptable enough when he's posting a strong strikeout rate.
Walden went through a rough three-game stretch at the end of June, blowing three consecutive saves. However, he had converted 10 straight opportunities before that and has closed his last four opps since then. He's probably never going to be an extreme strikeout pitcher, but he should be able to keep the free passes down enough to get the job done.
"Walking guys or walking the leadoff guy, that's what hurts me," Walden said. "That's what can lead to blown saves. I have a weird delivery, so if my mechanics are off a little that day, my arm slot is off, and then the ball doesn't do what I want it to do."
I expect Walden to increase his strikeout rate in future seasons as he improves his fastball command and sharpens his slider, yet still show enough command to have no problem maintaining his role.
• Hanrahan converted to relief work with the Nationals in 2008 after being hesitant to make the move earlier in his career. According to Hanrahan, ESPN's own Jim Bowden saw him record eight out of nine outs via strikeout in a spring training game that year and told him, "You're going to be a big league closer."

Hanrahan was told even before spring games started this year that he was going to be the man in the ninth inning for the Pirates this season, and that he wasn't going to be on a short leash, according to Hanrahan. "I was going to be their guy," as Hanrahan put it when I talked with him during the All-Star Game festivities. "When you're trying to compete for a role or compete for a job, you put so much pressure on yourself. It felt good that they trusted me and believed I could have success doing it. It gave me a chance to go out there and do some things I might need to pull out of my pocket during the season, like throwing breaking balls on a 3-1 count. It was nice to not have to worry about it every outing during spring training."
Hanrahan suffered his first blown save of the season in his first opportunity after the All-Star break as the team tried to have him get one extra out in the eighth with a runner on, but he bounced right back on Monday with a save, and is now 27-for-28 in save chances this season.
Hanrahan credits a 2009 dinner with some ex-Dodgers teammates just before he was traded from the Nationals to the Pirates for helping things start clicking for him. They told him how he looked on the mound despite his good stuff and a fastball that could reach the high 90s. "A lot of it was mental. I was looking defeated on the mound. I had zero swagger out there," Hanrahan said. "I told myself I was going to go out there, stick out my chest a little more and be more aggressive. I'm not worried if they put the ball in play. Just throw strike one, and locate it down in the zone. I feel now if I make my pitch, the defense can get an out."
That aggressiveness has paid off with a much-improved walk rate -- he's walking less than two batters per nine this season (after 4.8 and 3.4 marks, respectively, in 2009 and '10) -- and while his willingness to pitch more to contact has resulted in a sharp drop in his strikeout rate to under a batter per inning, the trade-off has resulted in the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. He's not as concerned with trying to set up batters to chase his slider out of the zone, relying a lot more on his fastball velocity and movement this season.
The common thread among all three of the closers I discuss today is limiting home runs. Hanrahan has allowed just one long ball this season and has become more of a ground-ball pitcher with his emphasis of working lower in the zone rather than trying to go up high with his heat for the strikeout. To hear Hanrahan tell it, going for strikeouts all the time was part of his past issues: "I was trying to make the perfect pitch," Hanrahan said. "You can't go for a strikeout by trying to make a nasty pitch when the count is just 0-1. My failures were from trying to be perfect. You can't go out putting that much pressure on yourself. Things aren't going to work if you do that."
Better command of and trust in his fastball have paid off for Hanrahan, and it's a good enough pitch that it can continue to do so. His slider can still get swings and misses as well, even though he's using it more judiciously, as he's working ahead in the count more often.
All three of these closers can continue to perform around their current levels and are obviously worthy keepers, especially in leagues in which their keeper status is set by the round they were drafted in or by their cheap auction price. I would rank them in the order I wrote them in here. All three hurlers have great stuff and all have been able to harness that stuff better this season. You can see the results.

 

[HacheMan]

Brand New Belt

Quiet, please – Brandon Belt has the floor. Recalled from Triple-A on Tuesday, the 23-year-old promptly joined the starting lineup, homering in his first at-bat and ripping a two-run, go-ahead, opposite field double in his last at-bat that provided the decisive runs in a 5-3 win.

Before we go too far in declaring what this means for Belt's immediate future, it should be noted that beat writer Andrew Baggarly reports that Belt was called up to give Aubrey Huff a break from back tightness for a few days. With that said, the breakout game in his first big league action since late May certainly helps Belt's chances of getting a prolonged look, even after Aubrey Huff returns (Belt has been playing left and right field in the minors as well).

All things considered, I can certainly see the logic behind taking a mixed league flier on Belt in hopes that Bruce Bochy is ready to give him an extended major league audition in the near future.

In other news on a busy day for San Francisco...

On the same day that they placed Miguel Tejada (abdomen) on the DL, the Giants acquired Jeff Keppinger from the Astros for right-handers Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel. And while Stoffel and Sosa don't have fantasy relevance – and Keppinger's limited value doesn't change much with the move – it is worth noting that the Astros have called up Jose Altuve to take Keppinger's place. Altuve has hit .361 with five homers and five steals in 144 at-bats at Double-A, and certainly warrants an add in NL-Only leagues.

Among the latest flurry of news on Carlos Beltran: Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com puts the Phillies and Red Sox as two of the most aggressive suitors for the outfielder's services, while Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record reports that the Yankees have ruled Beltran out. Meanwhile, Beltran drove up his own price tag Tuesday by reaching base five times in his return to the lineup from the flu.

A number of big names returned from injuries on Tuesday. Among them: Jose Reyes (hamstring), Shane Victorino (thumb), Jose Bautista (ankle), and Ryan Braun (calf). Notably for Braun, the Brewers started him on Tuesday, but pulled him after five innings as they plan to ease him back into action. Braun went 1-for-3 with a homer and should hopefully be back to playing nine innings sooner rather than later.

Per beat writer Jordan Bastian, Indians manager Manny Acta said that the results of an MRI on Grady Sizemore's right knee weren't as bad as "we might've feared." That somewhat cryptic update came after GM Chris Antonetti said on Tuesday that we should know more about Sizemore's injury in the next 24-48 hours. For the moment, the only thing to do unfortunately is to stay tuned.

Jason Isringhausen picked up his first save since 2008 on Tuesday, retiring the Cardinals on 11 pitches in a perfect frame. Isringhausen needs to be added wherever available, but Bobby Parnell is still worth hanging onto in the event that Isringhausen gets dealt elsewhere at the deadline.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Pitcher injury notes: J.J. Putz (elbow) threw a perfect inning on his rehab assignment and appears to be getting close to a return … Beat writer Todd Zolecki reports that Roy Oswalt (back) could make a rehab start next week after a pain-free bullpen session … Scott Baker (elbow) will throw a bullpen Wednesday that will determine whether he starts this weekend or heads for a rehab assignment … Jonathan Broxton (elbow) did arm exercises Monday, but still isn't ready to begin throwing … X-rays on Tom Gorzelanny's ankle were negative, but he's still missing his next start as a precaution … Clay Buchholz (back) was slated to throw a side session early this week, but his timetable remains unclear … The Nationals are planning to add Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder) to their active roster around July 29.

Position player injury notes: Ike Davis (ankle) admitted that he might not be able to return this season … Chipper Jones (knee) ran and took BP as he continues to target a Monday return … Jason Heyward (foot) is expected to return Wednesday … The Orioles transferred Brian Roberts (concussion) to the 60-day DL as his return date remains uncertain … Pablo Sandoval left early due to right quad tightness, but could play Wednesday … Alex Gordon (foot) returned to action, going 1-for-4 … Austin Jackson went 2-for-5, telling Yahoo! Sports that his wrist is "definitely feeling better."

Position player injury notes (part 2): Casey Blake (neck) received a cortisone shot, but remains out indefinitely … Travis Buck left Tuesday after being hit in the head by a Francisco Liriano pitch, but early indications are that he avoided a concussion … Scott Sizemore left Tuesday's game after being hit in the jaw/neck area and is being called day-to-day (though not likely to play Wednesday) … Though reportedly running at just 60 percent, Peter Bourjos (hamstring) is currently on course to be activated Saturday … Freddy Sanchez (shoulder) has been swinging and throwing from 90 feet, but it remains unclear if he'll return this season … Luke Scott has been shut down for a few days while feeling pain during his rehab assignment.

Miscellaneous notes: ESPN's Buster Olney reports that teams that talking to Houston about Hunter Pence come away "convinced it will take a major, major overpay" for Pence to be dealt … According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Phillies have "talked to the Marlins" about Leo Nunez … Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports that the Indians are targeting Ryan Ludwick or Josh Willingham to fortify their outfield … Barry Zito will have his next start skipped after giving up eight earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against San Diego over the weekend … Royals GM Dayton Moore said on MLB Network Radio that Aaron Crow will move into the starting rotation next season … Ryan Theriot was suspended two games for his actions on Sunday, but has appealed for now.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns, rankings, projections and more, check out Rotoworld's MLB Season Pass.

Notable pitching: Alexi Ogando threw eight shutout innings against the Angels … Madison Bumgarner surrendered three runs in eight strong innings against the Dodgers … Bartolo Colon bounced back from two ugly outings with nine strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings in a loss to the Rays, but was outpitched by Jeremy Hellickson … Called up on Tuesday, Danny Duffy allowed two runs in seven innings (five hits, two walks, six K's) in a win over the White Sox … Ubaldo Jimenez struck out nine in 6 2/3 innings, but was inexplicably left in to throw 120 pitches in a lopsided win over the Braves … James McDonald threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Reds … Dillon Gee picked up his ninth win with seven innings of two-run ball against the Cardinals … Justin Masterson threw 7 2/3 shutout innings in a no-decision against the Twins … Tim Stauffer threw six scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 2.83 … Joel Peralta picked up a save against the Yankees, but only because Kyle Farnsworth was getting a night off after having pitched three of the last four days … Jim Johnson picked up a save in place of suspended closer Kevin Gregg, but presumably only because Koji Uehara had worked on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Notable hitting: Dan Uggla hit homers No. 16 and 17 … Rajai Davis stole three bases, giving him 10 in his last 13 games … Carlos Gonzalez homered for the first time since returning from a wrist injury … Though not currently starting against lefties, Brandon Allen homered for the second time in his first three games this year … Brett Gardner picked up two more hits and two more steals, giving him nine hits and six steals in his last four games.

 

[HacheMan]

Is it Isringhausen?

It's summer blockbuster time. It's so hot in some parts that there's really no option other than to pony up the cash just so you can sit in a dark, over-air-conditioned space with a cold drink. The movie is almost secondary.

But this year it seems all the movies are sequels or remakes. That's fine if you're Harry Potter, maybe not so fine if you are the Smurfs. Or a Megan-Fox-less Transformers.

So, since we already wish our head was in the freezer, we'll rank the closers by summer movies. Except we'll go backwards. The worse the movie, the more mind-numbing the premise, the higher it will be ranked.

Because thinking hard just makes us sweat more.


Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Fast Five" Tier.)


Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates

Does it get any lazier than removing all superfluous words in the title? "Fast" so you know what the movie is about and "Five" because it's the fifth one. Done.
Yeah, Joel Hanrahan is in this tier. His ascent has been ridiculous, but he's always been a great reliever. He did blow a save this week and still managed to move up, mostly because it was his first blown save of the year. He's walked one batter since June fourth. One! His strikeout rate is a little down, but his ground ball rate is up and he's only given up one home run this year after giving up six last year. The only thing that was keeping him back was the fact that there were some trade rumors surrounding his name. Well, with the Pirates in first place (!), they won't be trading away their closer. They're even looking into acquiring setup men. Welcome to the Fast Five tier, Mr. Hanrahan! No flashy cars come with the promotion.


Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Pirates of the Caribbean 4: On Stranger Tides" Tier.)


John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants

Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres

Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels

Pirates! Pretty women! Fighting! The ongoing quest for eternal life! It's very easy to take in and about as rewarding as stuffing your face with fast food. Unfortunately for this ranking, Pirates took the opposite strategy than Fast Five and decided to try and stuff as many words into the title as possible. That means a tiny bit more thought has to go into things.
John Axford hasn't been showing a completely clean slate, but he does have a swashbuckling strikeout rate and continues to limit his walks. Most importantly, he's on a contending team and has survived the addition of a new closer-type. Two straight saves have come with Francisco Rodriguez setting him up and the hierarchy in that pen is clear. He's certainly had a better week since the break than Brian Wilson, who has walked four against no strikeouts. Hey, he still got three saves at least.
The middle trio in this group represents a grouping that would be ranked higher if not for trade rumors. Joakim Soria has proven that he's mostly back to his old ways, but now there are a few whispers that he'll be traded. That trade is less likely than Andrew Bailey moving, if only because the A's have proven that they'll make any trade that they feel is beneficial, irregardless of the status of their competitiveness. They have Brian Fuentes, if they get offered some offense for Bailey (and the Rangers have offense), they might pull the trigger. Heath Bell is still the most likely reliever moved here, but now the rumors include Mike Adams. If Adams is indeed the one who goes, Bell would close all year.
Jordan Walden seems safe for the year now. Since his blown save on June 26th, he hasn't walked a batter and has only given up three baserunners and one run in five and a third innings. There aren't any rumors that the Angels are looking for relievers, either. With a little added flair on his facial hair, he could even be considered somewhat pirate-esque.


Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Smurfs" Tier.)

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians

Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

Brandon League, Seattle Mariners

Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles

Comment:
It seems like a movie that doesn't require much thought, but then the movie does inspire some questions. Why is it live action? Why is this movie being made? Why is Papa Smurf wearing sunglasses? Yeah, now you're thinking and sweating again.
Huston Street did get hung with a loss in the last week, but for the most part he's been excellent recently. He gets demoted because there are suddenly sharks in the water in Colorado. They've come back from similar deficits before, but somehow this year that sort of feat seems less likely. Huston Street is in the final year of his contract and could actually move if the Rox get the right offer. If he survives the next two weeks in the closer's role, he is the favorite to move back up, along with Sergio Santos, whose improved control has made him an exciting closer.
If Drew Storen and Chris Perez can add a better strikeout rate to their overall package, they could move up too. Storen struck out three in one inning on Monday! That was only the third time all year he's managed more than one strikeout in an inning, but he now has six strikeouts in the last four innings. He has the tools -- three legitimate pitches -- to get the job done. Chris Perez doesn't have the same arsenal and hasn't shown a three-strikeout day recently, but has managed multiple strikeouts in one inning five times this year. Still, Vinnie Pestano lurks if all that contact turns out to be a problem for Perez.

Jose Valverde slips entirely because of his performance as well. He's had two three-run blowups in the last ten outings, but that's not the real reason he's been worrisome. Over the last ten appearances, Valverde has walked eight batters and struck out nine. Not only is that a bad ratio, but it also has Valverde showing the worst walk rate of his career. He needs to corral his pitches. Maybe Gargamel can help.
Brandon League and Kevin Gregg get boosts this week that have nothing to do with their performances so far this year. League's competition for the closer's role, David Aardsma, found out that he's going to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. That means that League should begin next year as the closer as well. Gregg? He gets a boost because his team is shopping his competition for the role, Koji Uehara. It's a head-scratcher, since Uehara has been the better pitcher this year, but it is what it is. The Orioles seem to value Gregg as a closer.


Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Cowboys and Aliens" Tier.)

Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds

Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals

Comment:
It seems like total fluff until you take note of the actors and actresses involved. James Bond and Indiana Jones in one movie? And that movie brings cowboys and aliens together? There's all sorts of wires crossing right now. It could get dangerous.
Why is Leo Nunez in this tier if he hasn't blown a save in over a month? Well, because he's being shopped, and it's not clear if he would close if he ended up in, say, Philadelphia. There are a lot of options there. Behind him, the bullpen situation is cloudy. Clay Hensley saved seven games in seven opportunities last year but started a game this week. Mike Dunn has a great strikeout rate but he is a lefty and he has a bad walk rate. He might be the closer of the future anyway. Randy Choate has been great but he's also a lefty and hasn't shown a strikeout rate like this ever before in his career. You know who is under team control, has been used late in games, has a decent strikeout rate, a great walk rate, and an ERA under three? Edward Mujica, that's who. Now you know the main contenders. Good luck hunting.
Ah, Carlos Marmol. Some would say he doesn't deserve to be on this list even, and that Sean Marshall is the closer right now. But Marmol's manager is already talking about getting him back in there after he calms down a little. And Marmol's strikeout rate is legendary. Call his last appearance (one inning, two strikeouts, two walks, no runs) a step back to his old job. Once he starts striking people out again (he has nine walks against two strikeouts in his last seven outings), he'll be a solid closer once again.
It looks like Francisco Cordero survived his poor stretch before the All-Star break, as he earned the save on Sunday. But he still only has two strikeouts against six walks in his last ten outings. If he keeps that up, Aroldis Chapman will be closing before long. Fernando Salas not Salsa did blow a save last week, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio is way better than Cordero's and his manager has shown that he'll continue to use his find all year. The Cards are not a team that will go out and spend to acquire name closer in all likelihood, so expect Salas to continue climbing. Joel Peralta got the save in Tampa Tuesday night, but it was only because Kyle Farnsworth was unavailable due to pitching in three of the last four games. It's nice to know who's next there. Jake McGee got the hold and has looked excellent of late. He's still a long-term possibility.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.

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Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (5) (AKA: The "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tier.)

1st Chair: Joe Nathan, 2nd Chair: Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins

1st Chair: Neftali Feliz, 2nd Chair: TBD, Texas Rangers
1st Chair: Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair: Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros

1st Chair: Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair: Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies

1st Chair: Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair: Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays

1st Chair: Jason Isringhausen, 2nd Chair: Bobby Parnell, New York Mets
1st Chair: Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair: Blake Hawksworth, Los Angeles Dodgers
1st Chair: David Hernandez, 2nd Chair: Aaron Heilman, Arizona Diamondbacks

Comment:
Yeah, the name says it all. It's the eighth movie, a part two of the seventh and final book in the series, which is already confusing. And there are dark themes in the series! And people die! Probably the best movie of the bunch, this one will also make you think some.
Joe Nathan! It took the Twins long enough. We've been banging that drum for so long it almost seems like an empty victory. Now that his velocity is mostly back and his scar tissue mostly gone, he looks like he'll close the rest of the way. Expect him to move up in the ranks gradually.
Though he's been serviceable of late, Neftali Feliz drops in the rankings. It really looks like the Rangers will acquire a bullpen arm and that leaves Feliz in a tough spot. If Mike Adams comes over, there's a slight chance that Feliz keeps the job. But if Heath Bell or Andrew Bailey are the returns instead, they are likely to steal the closer's role in Texas. Even if Feliz has found his control once again.
Ryan Madson returned to mixed results. He had a clean slate in his first inning back… but got a hold. Then in his second outing he couldn't get through the eighth inning and Antonio Bastardo was needed for four outs. Still, Madson was great before Bastardo took over and should be eased back into the role. Most likely. Brad Lidge edges ever-closer. Even if Bastardo got the save Tuesday night, it's Lidge or Madson long-term and not the young lefty.
That Toronto pen is a mess. The manager told Jon Rauch that he'll be getting saves going forward in the short-term, but he only has seven strikeouts in his last ten outings, and that's pretty much representative of his true talent. Frank Francisco has more strikeouts than innings pitched, but had a home run problem for a while. Well, now he hasn't given up a home run since May 20th. He's still blown too many saves. Expect Francisco to get the job back at some point… again.
The Mets said that Jason Isringhausen would be the closer in Philly over the weekend, but then didn't need one. Now Izzy is the subject of trade rumors, which make sense since he's not under contract for next year. Bobby Parnell is still the favorite to lead the team in saves the rest of the way. Yes, even though Izzy saved his first in years (and the 294th of his career) Tuesday night. As always, I'm happy to discuss these situations on twitter any time.

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Injured

David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (elbow)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Ryan Madson, Philadephia Phillies (hand)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks (elbow)

Comment:
David Aardsma is done! Tommy John surgery. Jonathan Broxton did arm exercises! It's something. J.J. Putz is right around the corner! He just needs to pitch in back-to-back games first. Brad Lidge is on the doorstep! He will make one more rehab appearance and the be evaluated on Thursday. He could be back up by the weekend.

The Deposed:
Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee

Will we see a Ranger, a Padre or a Marlin on this list next week?

<CENTER>* * * * * * * * * *</CENTER>

The Steals Department

Rajai Davis was our man last week and he just stole three bases in Tuesday's game. Maybe we can get lucky like that with this week's recommendation, Denard Span. Well that would be extremely lucky because Span has never stolen three bags in one game in his career. He's only stolen two five times. He's not really a volume base stealer. And since a lot of Span's value comes from his glove, he's a better real-life player than fantasy player. But if you could use ten-plus steals from a bench player the rest of the way, Span is there to be had and is only a game or two away from returning to the major leagues. He shouldn't feel too many after-effects of his concussion either, even if he is hitless on his rehab stint so far.

It's always perilous to go to Seattle for your offense, but there's a shortstop in the Pacific northwest that has stolen two bags in the last ten days and that's enough to perk interest in some leagues. Yeah, Brendan Ryan may be fantasy-relevant again. It wasn't too long ago -- 2009 to be exact -- that Ryan managed 14 stolen bases in 390 at-bats with St. Louis. He is showing the best line drive rate of his career right now, and he might hit .260+ with five-to-ten steals the rest of the way. I'm going to go pick him up in my 18-teamer to back up Ian Desmond right now. Some of you play in leagues where he's a viable starter. Lord help us all.

 

[HacheMan]

Potential trade deadline fallout

Beltran, Pence among players who could be dealt, see shift in fantasy value

Only 11 days remain until major league baseball's non-waiver trade deadline, one of the most significant dates on the fantasy calendar. It's one of the few times during the season -- the early weeks of April, when things are still taking shape, being another -- that individual player values so radically shift.

Predicting trades -- and the ensuing fallout -- ranks among the most difficult tasks for us, but also among the most fun. And it's that speculation, and the preparations we as fantasy owners make as we speculate, that gives us an edge when the inevitable tidal wave of deadline deals flows in.


Today, let's take a look at the coulds and mights of the next 11 days: the potential moves, but more importantly, their impact in fantasy. Listed below are the players whose stock would most be helped by a deadline deal.


First, the standard caveat: A lot of guesswork goes into forecasting a trade, and by all rights not a single move involving any of the players discussed today might happen. The purpose is merely to prepare you in the event such a deal does happen. Don't make a rash move and overpay for any of these eight names simply because of the possibility of a trade; but consider contacting their owners and see if you could sneak one away at full or beneath market value.


Carlos Beltran: There's no question that he has enjoyed a remarkable comeback campaign; his .293/.389/.523 "triple-slash" rates are the fifth-, third- and fourth-best single-season numbers in his career. He has also maintained healthy 100-RBI and 93-run full-season paces for the upstart New York Mets, and has managed .318/.409/.589 rates and hit eight of his 14 home runs at pitching-friendly Citi Field. But this is a Mets team that averaged a lower team OPS and considerably fewer runs per game after Aug. 1 than before it in each of the past two seasons; the team had a .719 OPS and averaged 4.29 runs per game before Aug. 1 in 2009 and 10, but only .703/3.75 numbers after it. Getting out of the National League East, which sports five of the top 12 starting pitchers on our Player Rater, will also help. Among Beltran's potential destinations -- the projected impact of his addition to those teams' playoff chances are discussed in this Buster Olney blog -- the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers have all scored more runs than the Mets so far and the Cleveland Indians and Philadelphia Phillies are each within range, potentially providing the outfielder a counting-numbers (RBI/runs) boost. He's also a free agent at year's end, and one can only think he'd be plenty motivated if thrust into a pennant race.


Lucas Duda: He's already playing every day, having started 12 of the Mets' past 15 games at first base, but once the team gets Jose Reyes and David Wright back into the lineup, first base could again be cluttered, as Daniel Murphy is a candidate to return there. A Beltran deal would open up right field, a more natural spot for Duda. He was a .310/.398/.606 hitter in 108 games in Triple-A from 2010-11, and might provide some sneaky pop in NL-only leagues.

Ryan Ludwick: While there's a good chance that any Ludwick trade might result in his occupying the weaker side of a platoon, simply getting out of Petco Park would be huge for the one-time 37-homer hitter. Ludwick is a .222/.303/.369 hitter in 87 career games there, never taking to Petco's confines the way he did to Busch Stadium's (.290/.366/.505 in 242 games there). Joining the Cincinnati Reds might limit his at-bats but provide him a considerable ballpark advantage; he has hit nine homers in 30 career games and 105 at-bats at Great American Ball Park. Joining the Red Sox would not only boost his counting-numbers potential -- the San Diego Padres have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball, the Red Sox the most -- it'd land him in an extremely left-handed outfield, maximizing his platoon/pinch-hitting appeal. Again, those are two destinations where he wouldn't play regularly. On a team where he would, he'd almost assuredly experience a significant boost from his current 50.3 percent ownership in ESPN leagues.


Yonder Alonso: He's an obvious trade chip, being that the Reds have Joey Votto entrenched at first base, and his .302/.382/.498 numbers in 85 games in Triple-A demonstrate that he's ready for an extended look at the big league level. The Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland Athletics, Padres and Tampa Bay Rays are six possible destinations where Alonso should immediately take over.

Hunter Pence: As with Beltran, Pence's Houston Astros have exceeded expectations, averaging 3.9 runs per game with a .692 OPS. Still, those are both bottom-10 numbers in the majors, meaning any move almost assuredly would land him in a lineup more conducive to healthy run/RBI totals. A 25-homer performer in each of the past three seasons, Pence could boost his annual averages of 82 runs and RBIs apiece (2008-10) to closer to 100 in a deeper offense; his current pace of 102 RBIs might even swell to 110-plus. I'm not convinced he'll actually be traded, but imagine what a trade to Boston or Philadelphia would do to his numbers.


Nolan Reimold: Now 27, Reimold's future might no longer be that of an All-Star, but he still has the potential to be a solid regular, provided the opportunity. Trade rumors surrounding such Baltimore Orioles as Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee and Luke Scott increase the chances that either left field or designated hitter will remain open for him on an everyday basis after Aug. 1. Reimold did total 25 homers and 17 steals in 164 games in Triple-A between 2009 and '11 and he has five homers in 31 games for the Orioles thus far; that's production difficult to find on the waiver wire every day in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.


Chris Carter: What Athletics hitter isn't rumored on the block? From Coco Crisp to Conor Jackson to Hideki Matsui to Josh Willingham, there are any number of places Carter might find everyday at-bats beginning Aug. 1. Yes, he has performed horribly in his first 34 big league games; he's a .170 hitter who has struck out 35 times in 100 at-bats. But he's also a power-hitting prospect who has hit at least 25 home runs in each of his past four minor league seasons (average of 31), his 12.2 percent walk rate during his minor league career offers hope, and the Athletics might as well give him an extended opportunity to see just what they have in him. AL-only owners, at least, should scoop him up.


Lorenzo Cain: The Kansas City Royals are reportedly shopping both Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, and in the event one gets moved, it'd make plenty of sense for them to promote Cain to play every day. Cain is a .344 hitter (53-for-154) with eight home runs, 25 RBIs and five stolen bases in his past 43 games for Triple-A Omaha; there isn't much more for him to prove in the minors. He did, after all, bat .306 with seven steals in a 43-game stint with the Milwaukee Brewers last season. AL-only owners would love to scoop up that kind of production.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rnk </CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Prev
Rnk </CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Braun, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Kemp, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Albert Pujols, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adrian Gonzalez, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Bautista, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Miguel Cabrera, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jose Reyes, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joey Votto, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Robinson Cano, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Gonzalez, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hanley Ramirez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Troy Tulowitzki, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Teixeira, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Curtis Granderson, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Josh Hamilton, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dustin Pedroia, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Prince Fielder, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Evan Longoria, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andrew McCutchen, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Justin Upton, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Holliday, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rickie Weeks, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Howard, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>25 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Paul Konerko, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carl Crawford, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nelson Cruz, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jay Bruce, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ian Kinsler, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>30 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Ortiz, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Hunter Pence, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>32 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Lind, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>29 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>33 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Stanton, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chase Utley, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Bourn, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>36 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kevin Youkilis, BOS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brian McCann, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ryan Zimmerman, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>39 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Drew Stubbs, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>40 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Elvis Andrus, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>41 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chris Young, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>42 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Victor Martinez, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>44 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jimmy Rollins, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Jones, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adrian Beltre, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>47 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">David Wright, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>48 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shane Victorino, PHI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>49 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brandon Phillips, CIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>50 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Pablo Sandoval, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">B.J. Upton, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Santana, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Young, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aramis Ramirez, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Reynolds, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Lance Berkman, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ichiro Suzuki, SEA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Joe Mauer, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Danny Espinosa, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Andre Ethier, LAD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ben Zobrist, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>62 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Corey Hart, MIL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Starlin Castro, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Morse, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Dan Uggla, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Beltran, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>67 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Quentin, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>68 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alexei Ramirez, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brett Gardner, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Neil Walker, PIT </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Markakis, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Billy Butler, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gaby Sanchez, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>74 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Michael Cuddyer, MIN </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>75 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Gordon, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Heyward, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Rodriguez, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Nick Swisher, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>78 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>79 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">J.J. Hardy, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>80 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Pena, CHC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Martin Prado, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>82 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Freddie Freeman, ATL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Rajai Davis, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>104 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Miguel Montero, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>85 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jhonny Peralta, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>81 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Kelly Johnson, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Angel Pagan, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Vernon Wells, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>89 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derek Jeter, NYY </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>90 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Colby Rasmus, STL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Rios, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>92 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Stephen Drew, ARI </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>76 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Bobby Abreu, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>84 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Howard Kendrick, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>88 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>95 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Erick Aybar, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Brennan Boesch, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>91 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>97 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Coco Crisp, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>98 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Derrek Lee, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>105 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mike Napoli, TEX </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>115 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>100 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jayson Werth, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>69 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alex Avila, DET </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>94 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>102 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Johnny Damon, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>99 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>103 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Eric Hosmer, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>106 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>104 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Ty Wigginton, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>102 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>105 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jeff Francoeur, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>109 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>106 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Cameron Maybin, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>113 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Mark Trumbo, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>116 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>108 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Yunel Escobar, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>118 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>109 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Joyce, TB </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>108 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>110 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Shin-Soo Choo, CLE </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Travis Snider, TOR </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>112 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Adam Dunn, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>86 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>113 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Carlos Lee, HOU </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>114 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Roger Bernadina, WAS </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>117 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>115 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Torii Hunter, LAA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>119 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>116 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Logan Morrison, FLA </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>120 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>117 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Melky Cabrera, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>123 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>118 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Gordon Beckham, CHW </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>119 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Alcides Escobar, KC </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>124 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>120 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jemile Weeks, OAK </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>122 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>121 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Matt Wieters, BAL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>122 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Jason Bay, NYM </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>110 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>123 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Chase Headley, SD </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>107 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>124 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Todd Helton, COL </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>NR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>125 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Aubrey Huff, SF </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>101 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Deadline dealings aren't all positive. Here are two players whose fantasy value could be adversely impacted as a result of potential moves:


Jorge Posada: The Yankees are always linked to the most prominent names available at the trade deadline, but for once you might actually want to listen. Posada, in spite of a June resurgence, sports career-worst .224/.310/.382 rates, poor numbers for a DH, and he has scarcely touched left-handers this season (.120/.214/.140). At this stage of his career he's only marginally more useful than a pinch hitter, and he hasn't appeared in a game behind the plate since last Oct. 22. Ultimately, anyone the Yankees acquire is going to steal at-bats from someone, and the most likely candidate, clearly, is Posada. He's a useful No. 2 catcher in two-catcher leagues, but if his at-bat total continues to dip, he might not even warrant that kind of role in fantasy.


Carlos Pena: Point out, if you wish, that there are seven left-handed starters currently in the rotations of the Cubs' five National League Central foes, and that Pena is a combined 1-for-20 (.050 AVG) with 12 strikeouts lifetime against them. But here's the problem with that argument: There are at least five left-handers in the rotations of every other division except the NL East (most have six or seven), and many of them are considerably more talented than guys like J.A. Happ, Paul Maholm and Dontrelle Willis. Pena has settled in brilliantly in Chicago; he is on pace for 33 home runs and 85 RBIs, and he has feasted upon NL Central pitching to the tune of .290/.410/.523 rates in 34 games. He's an incredibly streaky player and a change of scenery might halt his recent hot spell.


Three up



Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves: Look who's sneaking up on the Player Rater! Freeman, a 23rd-round pick and the 22nd first baseman off the board in ESPN drafts in the preseason (No. 222, 212.5 average draft position), suddenly finds himself ranked 18th on the Player Rater, thanks to a torrid 27-game streak during which time he has batted .303 (30-for-99) with eight home runs and 25 RBIs. Mentioned in this space in the June 29 "Hit Parade," Freeman has continued many of the upward trends discussed those three short weeks ago: His .245 well-hit average of June, at the time his best single month of 2011, has risen to .286 so far in July. His isolated power, again a monthly best of .202 in June, is now .321 in July. And his line-drive rate, which finished at 23.1 percent in June, remains a healthy 19.0 in July. Perhaps a .300 batting average is unrealistic for Freeman, as his 22.9 percent strikeout rate puts him at a bit of risk in the category -- that's 20th-worst among qualified hitters and no one with a K rate of 22 percent or higher has a batting average higher than .283 -- but his current .278 number seems sustainable. His power, however, appears legit and the Braves are looking to upgrade their lineup, meaning those 23-homer, 84-RBI paces might be too low.


Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox: Remember the whispers in May that Pedroia's surgically repaired left foot, which has a screw in it, was causing him so much trouble that he might have had to succumb to surgery to have the screw removed? Apparently he has become much more comfortable playing through it since; he's a .368/.463/.642 hitter in 39 games since June 1, including nine home runs, 32 RBIs and 34 runs scored. In July in particular he has been scorching hot; he has six home runs in his past 11 games. Pedroia might be hard-pressed to keep up that kind of pace, but he's certainly capable of a .300 batting average, and numbers around (or potentially above) 20 in homers and steals. And in a lineup as stacked as the Red Sox's, he'll pile on the runs and RBIs. Consider him elite once more.


Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves: Speaking of red-hot Braves, Prado returned from the disabled list within the past week and has picked up right where he left off. He's a .292 hitter (7-for-24) in his first five games back, three of them multihit performances. It's good timing for Prado; the Braves are rumored to be seeking an outfielder, and there's an abundance of left fielders on the market. In that event, where would Prado play, what with Dan Uggla returning to form at second base, Freeman red hot at first and Chipper Jones about five days away from recapturing his third base role? Fantasy owners need not sweat it: Jason Heyward has struggled to the point that there are whispers of a possible demotion, and Prado, typically a .300-hitting, double-digit-power performer, is too valuable not to have in the lineup every day. Get him back in there with confidence, if you haven't already.


Three down



Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks: The most disturbing thing about Drew's disappointing 2011 is not that he has slipped practically into a straight platoon with Willie Bloomquist at shortstop, it's that it's the right move. Drew has batted a miserable .217/.290/.361 against left-handers this season, while Bloomquist has handled them well, batting .333/.400/.389. While Drew has started three of the Diamondbacks' past seven games against a lefty, keep in mind volume might have something to do with it; the Diamondbacks have oddly faced seven lefties in their past 14 games. But the trend is clear: Bloomquist is sneaking up on Drew, who has been rather ordinary against right-handers (.267/.331/.409). This season, Drew is missing more (22.4 percent of his swings, up from 16.0 in 2009 and 19.1 in 2010) and hitting for less power (.141 isolated power, down from .181 in 2010), continuing to cement his status as one of the more overrated players in fantasy. While he does have a track record of bursting forth with unexpected hot streaks, especially during the season's second half (.281/.356/.506 second-half numbers in 2010 alone), there isn't a lot of evidence to suggest one is imminent.


Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals: The adjustment to the major leagues is one of the greatest challenges for a player, and sure enough, Moustakas has had a difficult time with it, batting .198/.262/.252 in his first 30 games. He's in a significant funk recently, with just two hits in his past 11 games (.048 AVG). In his defense, he has exhibited a history of sluggish starts in the minors as well; he was a .229/.304/.410 hitter in 21 April games in Triple-A this season before finally taking off. He also endured a disappointing .250/.297/.421 season in his first taste of high Class A ball in 2009. Perhaps this is all about adjustments, but unfortunately, fantasy owners in redraft leagues cannot afford patience with such a struggling youngster. For now, bench Moustakas, who has top-10 future potential at his position.


Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals: His owners are understandably sick of his miserable performance this season. Here's a great stat from Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post: Werth hasn't homered in his past 105 at-bats, his last extra-base hit came on June 28, and that was a bloop double that traveled about 120 feet in the air. Any talk that the healthy return of Ryan Zimmerman would pay dividends for Werth was misguided; since Zimmerman's return on June 14, Werth is a .165/.289/.243 hitter with 37 strikeouts in 115 at-bats (32.2 percent). For the season, he has a .140 isolated power, .180 well-hit average and 45.1 percent ground ball rate, all of which are well worse than his .236, .269 and 36.3 numbers of 2010. And it's not getting any better: Those numbers are .081, .155 and 44.3 since June 1. It's understandable that Werth takes a nosedive in this week's rankings.


New position eligibility



The following players have become eligible at new positions -- it's 10 games to qualify at a new spot -- in ESPN standard leagues during the past two weeks: Craig Counsell (3B), Blake Davis (2B), Alberto Gonzalez (3B), Jonathan Herrera (SS), Mark Kotsay (OF), Ramiro Pena (3B), Ty Wigginton (OF), Josh Wilson (3B).

I've been a noted Travis Snider skeptic this season, and I'll reiterate my past point about him: He has historically been too much a free swinger, he was probably down to his final chance with the Toronto Blue Jays, and had this stint been a failure, his next would've been elsewhere, his next after that probably a part-time/spring minor league deal arrangement, and so on. But I'm willing to be convinced he has made the necessary adjustments, and so far, he appears to have made them.


Snider returned from Triple-A Las Vegas on July 4 with a revamped swing, and since that date has batted .391 (18-for-46) with nine doubles, one home run and 12 RBIs. Most notably, he's enjoying more success against fastballs, with .346/.370/.615 numbers in 27 plate appearances that have ended on one. At the same time, there are signs of worry: He has still missed on 25.7 percent of his swings, most of those on offspeed pitches, and has 13 whiffs in those 46 at-bats. The prospect of pitchers adjusting to his adjustments remains present.


Still, those .249-7-28 projections seem fair to me, and account for the batting average -- and streakiness -- concerns I've always had with Snider. It's an "Insider Recommends" that I'll take; see if you've got a similarly smart move to exploit.

 

[HacheMan]

The secret to Kimbrel's, Walden's success

Jason Grey

The 2011 baseball season has shown us yet again that you can still get saves, even elite stoppers, on the cheap. The No. 1 reliever on our Player Rater, the Braves' Craig Kimbrel, was the 22nd reliever picked, on average, in ESPN live drafts this preseason. The No. 3 reliever, the Pirates' Joel Hanrahan, was picked 27th. The Angels' Jordan Walden, 19th on the Player Rater (15th when you toss out the starting pitchers who qualify as relievers) and climbing, was, on average, the 36th relief pitcher taken this spring.

Kimbrel has always possessed the raw stuff that ranks right up there with any pitcher in baseball. He can be unhittable when he's on, and this year he has been able to find his control, for the most part, dropping his walk rate to less than four batters per nine innings while still being able to fan more than 14 batters per nine.
"It's always been 'throw the ball over the plate and you're going to be more successful,'" Kimbrel told me last week. "I give a lot of credit to my pitching coach and my catchers. Some of it is pitch selection, with those guys figuring out what guys are going to swing at or not swing at."
His improvement has resulted in a strikeouts-to-walk ratio of 3.75-to-1 and helped him convert 29 saves in 34 chances. Kimbrel's high-90s fastball and sharp slider are both so tough to get the barrel of the bat on that he has allowed just one homer in 68 2/3 big league innings.
Kimbrel's mechanics aren't any different than they were a year and a half ago, but they are more consistent and he repeats his delivery better, which has resulted in the control gains. His arm doesn't come through late as often as it once did, and he seems to have better tempo. I asked Kimbrel if he just thinks more experience has been the difference.
"I'd say so," Kimbrel agreed. "I understand my mechanics a little better, and what I can and can't do, and it's worked out."
It certainly has thus far, and barring injury I expect it to continue to do so.

• Although Walden was a minor league starter initially, I had him pegged as a late-innings reliever from the first time I saw him in instructional league play in 2007. (You can view my original pro-style 20-to-80 scouting report from then in this August 26, 2010, profile of Walden.)
"The best thing that ever happened to me was going to the bullpen," Walden said when I spoke to him shortly after talking to Kimbrel. "As a starter, my arm was never healthy, and it wouldn't bounce back."
Very few people expected Fernando Rodney to keep the Angels' closer job for long, and Walden was clearly being groomed for the role. Indeed, Rodney's time in the ninth inning was over by April 5, and Walden replaced him.
"I didn't expect it to happen at all," Walden said. "But [manager Mike Scioscia] made the decision to put me in there, and I'm very happy I'm a closer. I don't know what I'd be doing without [the job]."
Walden's 97-99 mph heater is a heavy ball that is tough for hitters to elevate, especially with some of the funkiness in his delivery, and like Kimbrel, he can keep the ball in the yard (two homers allowed in 54 1/3 major league innings), which is a key trait for a consistent stopper. Though his control can be shaky at times, he has kept the walks to just less than four per nine innings, acceptable enough when he's posting a strong strikeout rate.
Walden went through a rough three-game stretch at the end of June, blowing three consecutive saves. However, he had converted 10 straight opportunities before that and has closed his last four opps since then. He's probably never going to be an extreme strikeout pitcher, but he should be able to keep the free passes down enough to get the job done.
"Walking guys or walking the leadoff guy, that's what hurts me," Walden said. "That's what can lead to blown saves. I have a weird delivery, so if my mechanics are off a little that day, my arm slot is off, and then the ball doesn't do what I want it to do."
I expect Walden to increase his strikeout rate in future seasons as he improves his fastball command and sharpens his slider, yet still show enough command to have no problem maintaining his role.
• Hanrahan converted to relief work with the Nationals in 2008 after being hesitant to make the move earlier in his career. According to Hanrahan, ESPN's own Jim Bowden saw him record eight out of nine outs via strikeout in a spring training game that year and told him, "You're going to be a big league closer."

Hanrahan was told even before spring games started this year that he was going to be the man in the ninth inning for the Pirates this season, and that he wasn't going to be on a short leash, according to Hanrahan. "I was going to be their guy," as Hanrahan put it when I talked with him during the All-Star Game festivities. "When you're trying to compete for a role or compete for a job, you put so much pressure on yourself. It felt good that they trusted me and believed I could have success doing it. It gave me a chance to go out there and do some things I might need to pull out of my pocket during the season, like throwing breaking balls on a 3-1 count. It was nice to not have to worry about it every outing during spring training."
Hanrahan suffered his first blown save of the season in his first opportunity after the All-Star break as the team tried to have him get one extra out in the eighth with a runner on, but he bounced right back on Monday with a save, and is now 27-for-28 in save chances this season.
Hanrahan credits a 2009 dinner with some ex-Dodgers teammates just before he was traded from the Nationals to the Pirates for helping things start clicking for him. They told him how he looked on the mound despite his good stuff and a fastball that could reach the high 90s. "A lot of it was mental. I was looking defeated on the mound. I had zero swagger out there," Hanrahan said. "I told myself I was going to go out there, stick out my chest a little more and be more aggressive. I'm not worried if they put the ball in play. Just throw strike one, and locate it down in the zone. I feel now if I make my pitch, the defense can get an out."
That aggressiveness has paid off with a much-improved walk rate -- he's walking less than two batters per nine this season (after 4.8 and 3.4 marks, respectively, in 2009 and '10) -- and while his willingness to pitch more to contact has resulted in a sharp drop in his strikeout rate to under a batter per inning, the trade-off has resulted in the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. He's not as concerned with trying to set up batters to chase his slider out of the zone, relying a lot more on his fastball velocity and movement this season.
The common thread among all three of the closers I discuss today is limiting home runs. Hanrahan has allowed just one long ball this season and has become more of a ground-ball pitcher with his emphasis of working lower in the zone rather than trying to go up high with his heat for the strikeout. To hear Hanrahan tell it, going for strikeouts all the time was part of his past issues: "I was trying to make the perfect pitch," Hanrahan said. "You can't go for a strikeout by trying to make a nasty pitch when the count is just 0-1. My failures were from trying to be perfect. You can't go out putting that much pressure on yourself. Things aren't going to work if you do that."
Better command of and trust in his fastball have paid off for Hanrahan, and it's a good enough pitch that it can continue to do so. His slider can still get swings and misses as well, even though he's using it more judiciously, as he's working ahead in the count more often.
All three of these closers can continue to perform around their current levels and are obviously worthy keepers, especially in leagues in which their keeper status is set by the round they were drafted in or by their cheap auction price. I would rank them in the order I wrote them in here. All three hurlers have great stuff and all have been able to harness that stuff better this season. You can see the results.

 

[HacheMan]

Drew Down, Rumors Up
Trade rumors dominated baseball news Wednesday as one of the more exciting weeks in the sport begins. Well, exciting in some respects -- it's fun to dream about different players on your team, and even about acquiring exciting prospects -- and in other respects, dreadfully boring. The ratio of completed trades to rumors has to be close to 1%. Still, is fun to contemplate them, so let's round them up.

The Mets had a busy day for rumors. Carlos Beltran to the Phillies is heating up, as the Phillies and Red Sox are contemplating the Mets right fielder. The Phillies are also looking at Melky Cabrera, though, and the rumor that Domonic Brown is the Beltran-bait seems a little far-fetched. Instead, it's probably Jonathan Singleton, a 19-year-old first base prospect with power potential in the middle of a mediocre season, that will be the prospect leaving town. One person that won't be leaving the Mets is Jose Reyes, as Buster Olney reported that the team is "100 percent certain" that they will not trade their shortstop. This could be a play to keep butts in the seats, a negotiating ploy, or an attempt to boost his trade value. Who knows.

It looks like the Braves are on the cusp of acquiring a right-handed outfield bat, and that bat might be Jonny Gomes. He'd probably play against lefties, but it's unclear who's time he would steal. Maybe the team can move Martin Prado to center field? He seems athletic enough and that's their weakest outfield position. Behind Gomes, Chris Heisey doesn't have a ton of upside, but he has been playing well and has a little power and a little speed to go with his mediocre batting average. Then again, this could all be conjecture, because Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick and Hunter Pence are all right-handed outfield bats that have been in the rumor mill. The Astros are even rumored to be more willing to trade Pence, so he might be one of the bigger names to be moved at the deadline.

The Giants are probably happy they got Jeff Keppinger before Stephen Drew went down with a gruesome ankle injury Wednesday night since the price probably goes up on the remaining middle infield options. Late news had it that Drew has a fracture ankle, is facing surgery and will probably be out for the season. Does that make the Diamondbacks sellers suddenly? Dan Uggla pulled up lame, too, but the Braves have in-house replacements with Martin Prado's versatility. Jamey Carroll (or Clint Barmes) is still rumored to be headed to the Brewers, who could use an upgrade at the position, and the Dodgers also have Rafael Furcal to sell. Dee Gordon owners approve.

Wilson Betemit was an actual, real-life, completed trade Wednesday. He went to the Tigers for two young prospects and should start every day. That makes him interesting, but more for deeper leagues, as his current batting average is propped up by good luck. Behind him, Mike Aviles was called up and might get starts against lefties. That's not super exciting.

* Some actual play made news Wednesday. The good! We saw Vance Worley pitch eight innings of one-run ball against the Cubs. He even struck out seven. His swinging strike rate, however, suggests that his below-average strikeout rate is for real and that he's more of a marginal starter in mixed leagues than a front-of-the-fantasy-rotation option. Johnny Cueto held the Pirates to one run in six innings, with four strikeouts. He's been getting very lucky on balls in play and is probably more of a mid-to-high threes ERA pitcher going forward. His opponent, Jeff Karstens, held the Reds to one run but only struck out one in seven innings. He'll be un-ownable shortly. Chris Narveson pitched seven scoreless against the Diamondbacks, with four strikeouts and no walks. He's been better than his ERA this year and is a decent pickup in most mixed leagues. After being a fly-ball pitcher with excellent control and gaudy strikeout rates in the minor league, Juan Nicasio has shown a better ground-ball rate and more muted strikeout numbers in the major leagues. Well, on the back of his control, he's been useful still. Wednesday he struck out four, walked one, and kept the Braves to one run in seven innings. John Danks returned from his injury and held the Royals scoreless in seven scoreless. His profile suggests he can keep up his current ERA and WHIP, but not that he can better it by much. Brandon Morrow is more exciting. He's always had great strikeout stuff, but now he's showing the best walk rate of his career. He gave up three runs in seven against the Mariners, but with seven strikeouts. If you need Ks, he's your man.

The bad! Ricky Nolasco defined this paragraph by giving up nine runs while getting four outs… against the Padres. He still has excellent control and some strikeout punch, but inconsistency is part of the package as well. Dan Haren gave up seven runs on in just 4 1/3 innings, and a lot will be made of his second-half splits. The problem is that past seasonal splits are not reliable predictors of future performance. In other words, he's not necessarily any more likely than anyone else to have a bad second half, mathematically. He still has great control and is still a fantasy ace. His opponent, Derek Holland, also gave up seven runs but he is struggling his way through the season. In dynasty leagues, though, a lefty with a 94 MPH fastball must be owned. Ryan Dempster gave up six runs in three innings and even though his underlying rates are the same as they've ever been, it's hard to start him right now. Keep him on your bench until he gets it going again. Andrew Miller shut out the Orioles in 5 2/3 innings, so maybe he should be in the other paragraph. No, he walked six. He's not a play in any league right now.

* On the hitting side there was news too. Jimmy Rollins is on fire. He homered from both sides of the plate Wednesday and is having a good contract year. Jayson Werth homered and doubled twice against the Astros, which is a welcome sight. He won't hit for a great batting average with his height, long arms, and strikeout rate, but he has power and speed and is playable in all leagues. We knew the days of having a good batting average were done for Alfonso Soriano, but the power was there earlier this year. Now everything is gone, as he's opened the second half 1-21. Bench him for now if you can. Lonnie Chisenhall was sliding since he was hit by a pitch, but then he collected two hits Wednesday -- one a home run. He probably has more leash. Michael Young had three hits and with his eligibilities all over the season is having a highly under-rated fantasy season. Ryan Braun hit two solo home runs. Guess his calf is okay. Todd Helton hit a two-run home run off of Tim Hudson Wednesday and has found the fountain of youth somehow. Ryan Ludwick had four RBI Wednesday and could get a boost with a trade to a better lineup and friendlier park. Travis Snider had two hits, one a home run, and five RBI against the Mariners. He's still striking out too much to have a great batting average, but the power is real.

* How about some medical updates? Pablo Sandoval missed the game Wednesday because of his sore right quad, but he also flied out as a pinch hitter. He should be back Friday. Scott Baker was cleared to rejoin the Twins rotation on Saturday. He's been great this year. Jason Heyward returned from his foot contusion. Hopefully the Braves aren't really considering demoting or platooning him despite his struggles. Matt Joyce returned from his sore knee. He's been struggling, and sitting against some lefties, but he was never a .300 hitter really anyway. He can be a useful bench bat in the Seth Smith mold if he's on your wire. Jason Kubel might return as soon as Friday and is also a mixed-league bench bat. Chase Headley's calf is feeling better, and he could be back Thursday. Even with the fact that his batting average is propped up by good fortune, the state of the position makes him playable in most leagues. Scott Sizemore hopes to be back Friday from his myriad injuries. Steve Pearce should be activated Friday and some expect him to play every day at first base over Lyle Overbay. Deep leaguers take note. Carlos Gomez broke his clavicle Wednesday night and is in danger of missing the season. This means Nyjer Morgan will get starts against lefties, or the Brewers will find another platoon partner center fielder somewhere.

* Let's pen some bull about bullpens. Javy Guerra pitched a 'perfect' ninth, but two of the fly outs were line drives and it wasn't the prettiest save in the world. He's not a long-term option at the position, but he might just last all year. Jonathan Broxton did do arm exercises, but he's not yet pain free so he does not yet have a timetable. Joe Nathan picked up his sixth save, even if he gave up his first run in his last ten appearances. Rafael Soriano had a good first inning on his rehab appearance, but then gave up two runs in the second inning. He'll be back next week. J.J. Putz will make another rehab appearance Friday and then be activated next Tuesday, or so goes the current plan. David Hernandez was great, and might be next year's closer, but he'll go back to setting up. Brad Lidge will return Friday and throw the Philly bullpen into even more question. Then Charlie Manuel said that Antonio Bastardo might keep the job going forward. Still, that's a contending team and they can't afford to be risky. Fernando Salas took the loss against the Mets when he allowed an Angel Pagan home run, but it was in his second inning of work and he hasn't been great in multiple innings in the past. He's still got some leash. The rumors are that Mike Adams and Heath Bell are on the block, but a report cited Padres owner Jeff Moorad as telling Adams that he was "not going anywhere." Sigh.

National League Quick Hits: Ubaldo Jimenez is not likely to be traded, says an exec who checked in on his availability … Jose Tabata (quad) left a rehab game for yet another setback … Jason Bartlett (paternity) is back with the Padres … Placido Polanco (bulging disc) will receive an epidural Thursday … Scott Rolen (shoulder) rejoined the Reds lineup with a hit … Angel Pagan's game-winning home run could be the spark that he needs; with a little better luck on batted balls, his value will become more obvious … It looks like Tom Gorzelanny's ankle is fine and he'll make his next start Saturday … Jason Bay was pulled from Wednesday's game due to a tight hamstring … Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder), who had the same operation as Johan Santana, looks about ready to rejoin the major leagues after one more start in Triple-A … Kyle McClellan allowed four runs in six innings and is just a mediocre pitcher … The 5'7" Jose Altuve debuted Wednesday against the Nationals and got a hit in five at-bats; He's batting second and is a deep league play at best … Jesus Guzman had three hits Wednesday and is taking some time from Anthony Rizzo in San Diego, but the minor league journeyman has limited upside … Jordan Schafer had two hits Wednesday but just doesn't have enough power to put up a decent batting average even … Joe Saunders only allowed two runs to the Brewers but that doesn't mean you should own him any league … 35-year-old Cody Ransom is up in Arizona to help at shortstop but he hasn't shown his minor league power in the majors ever … Dioner Navarro homered and might take over is Rod Barajas is traded but isn't a good offensive catcher … The Diamondbacks optioned Barry Enright to Triple-A and he's not fantasy relevant for now … Mets prospect Kirk Nieuwenhuis had season-ending labrum surgery.

American League Quick Hits: Curtis Granderson hit a home run of David Price and is doing just fine against lefties this year, thank you very much … Roy Halladay is a robot, which was confirmed by his successful bullpen session Wednesday … Jon Lester (strained lat) threw a bullpen session and remains on track to return next Monday … Erik Bedard (knee) will throw a simulated game this weekend … Jemile Weeks (foot) missed Wednesday's game but should be back Friday … Michael Brantley (flu) missed another game … Alex Gordon had two hits against the White Sox but his batting average is propped up by luck and the rest of his profile is only okay … Dustin Ackley homered, doubled, and drove in three; He's doing the same medium-power, medium-speed thing he did in the minors, but that makes him ownable in all leagues at his position … Magglio Ordonez had three hits Wednesday and if you need a mostly empty batting average in the outfield, he's your dude … Hey, Freddy Garcia did keep the Rays scoreless in 6 2/3 innings, and even struck out seven, but that's not a great offense and Garcia could have a disasterpiece of a start at any moment … Jason Vargas gave up rive runs in three innings in Toronto, and if you own him you just have to be very careful about when you start him … The Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals and Blue Jays were all scouting Kevin Slowey's start for Triple-A, so deep leaguers should roster him now … Edwin Encarnacion had three hits (one a home run) and two stolen basses against the Mariners and has provided surprising value in deep leagues … Alex Cobb will stay in the rotation and start Sunday but there's no word yet about the Rays going to six starters with Wade Davis returning Friday … Brandon McCarthy allowed four runs to the Tigers in Detroit and is mostly a mediocre pitcher with a nice home park … Adam Dunn's strikeout rate is insane and now he's taking treatment on a knee; He's a second-half miss most likely … Ivan Nova's (ankle) next minor league start will be skipped … Casey Kotchman had three hits for the Rays, but he hasn't changed his approach much and is just getting a little lucky on batted balls right now … Bruce Chen held the White Sox to one run in eight innings, but he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher with average control and little strikeout punch, so he doesn't have much going for him.

 

[HacheMan]

Hughes Opportunity
Not sure about you, but one viewing of Stephen Drew's fractured right ankle was just about enough for me. Just awful. It almost feels petty to be talking about fantasy baseball after watching something gruesome like that, but we have no choice but to keep moving along.

Drew was actually having a pretty disappointing season, anyway, batting just .252 with five homers, 45 RBI and four stolen bases over 86 games. That's not what we had in mind on draft day. He was even losing at bats to Willie Bloomquist -- yes, that Willie Bloomquist -- against left-handed pitching.

Shortstop hasn't been the black hole we thought it would be this season, but if you're really hurting for options, you can could always consider high-profile underachievers like Rafael Furcal (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 20.1 percent), Ian Desmond (Yahoo: 56 percent owned, ESPN: 70 percent), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (Yahoo: 13 percent owned, ESPN:16.1 percent) and Jason Bartlett (Yahoo: 8 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent). However, I don't blame you if you find that bunch decidedly "meh."

Two interesting names to keep in mind are new Giants' second baseman Jeff Keppinger (Yahoo: 9 percent owned, ESPN: 4.9 percent), who is also eligible at shortstop and Zack Cozart (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 3.9 percent), who I mentioned here last week.

Let's move on to the good stuff.

MIXED LEAGUES

Phil Hughes SP, Yankees (Yahoo: 44 percent owned, ESPN: 38 percent)

While Hughes was merely decent in his first start back from the disabled list, he took an encouraging step forward Sunday against the Blue Jays. The 25-year-old right-hander gave up two runs on four hits while striking out five and walking a pair. Perhaps more importantly, Hughes averaged 91.25 mph on his fastball (according to Brooks Baseball) and showed some pretty nasty bite on his curveball thanks to a new grip. We know the Yankees will score runs for him, so he's a pretty safe buy right now, especially with projected upcoming starts against the light-hitting Athletics and Mariners.

Jason Isringhausen RP, Mets (Yahoo: 19 percent owned, ESPN: 26.6 percent)

Like nearly every other fantasy baseball writer on the planet, I recommended Bobby Parnell last week. However, I did so with a caveat, saying the Mets could give Izzy some initial save chances, possibly in an effort to boost his trade value before the deadline. I'm not sure if he'll actually be traded, but that's exactly how the situation has played out until now. I still think Parnell will be saving games in September, but Izzy should be owned in all leagues as long as he's the No. 1 guy.

Jason Kubel OF, Twins (Yahoo: 46 percent owned, ESPN: 45.6 percent)

After some frustrating starts and stops with his rehab from a sprained left foot, Kubel is finally on track to return from the disabled list Friday night against the Tigers. The 29-year-old was batting .310/.355/.465 with five homers, 30 RBI and an .820 OPS prior to suffering the injury at the end of May, but fortunately he's become a forgotten man in many fantasy leagues. Remember that Kubel will be a free agent this winter, so he has extra incentive to finish the season on a high note.

Jon Niese SP, Mets (Yahoo: 37 percent owned, ESPN: 15.4 percent)

What exactly does Niese need to improve upon to be taken seriously in mixed leagues? His 3.73 ERA? Won't complain when he has an xFIP of 3.31. His 98/36 K/BB ratio? Nope, just fine. Nine wins? Not buying because of wins, but we'll sure take 'em. His 52.1 percent ground ball rate? Pretty darn good, too. And actually an improvement from last season. Niese wore down a bit down the stretch last season, so that bares watching as we move along here, but I see no reason why you shouldn't roll with him in most formats.

Pedro Alvarez 3B, Pirates (Yahoo: 39 percent owned, ESPN: 20 percent)

Alvarez is somewhat of a lottery ticket at this point. Hyped as a sleeper on draft day, he was batting just .208 with two homers and a 42/12 K/BB ratio over his first 138 plate appearances before going on the disabled list with a quad injury in May. The 24-year-old was essentially demoted after some early minor league rehab games, but the good news is that he has responded by batting .378 (14-for-37) with two homers, two doubles and eight RBI over his last 10 games with Triple-A Indianapolis. Brandon Wood and Josh Harrison aren't exactly tearing things up right now, so why not stash Alvarez's power potential if you have room on your bench?

John Danks SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 47 percent owned, ESPN: 37.7 percent)

Danks was fantastic in his return from the disabled list last night against the Royals. Though he was handed a no-decision thanks to his bullpen, the southpaw gave up just five hits -- all singles -- over seven shutout innings while striking out five and walking just one. Danks had allowed two runs or less in three consecutive starts before his oblique injury, so it looks like he has picked up exactly where he left off. Still widely available, he could be one of the better bargains of the second half.

Nyjer Morgan OF, Brewers (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 26.2 percent)

OK, it's about time Morgan gets some more love in mixed leagues. Sure, he's benefitted from a ridiculous and likely unsustainable batting average on balls in play, but "Tony Plush" is batting .344 in July and has hit safely in 10 straight games and 15 out of his last 16. An added bonus, Morgan is also seeing most of his at-bats out of the No. 2 spot in Ron Roenicke's batting order. I'm afraid his numbers could take somewhat of a hit if he's pushed into the lineup against southpaws now than his platoon partner Carlos Gomez is out for the year with a broken collarbone, but it's awful hard to pass up his speed and run scoring potential.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia C, Red Sox (Yahoo: 8 percent owned, ESPN: 1.3 percent)

I'm not kidding. Pardon me for this blatant display of arbitrary end points, but did you know that Salty is batting .280/.363/.576 with eight homers (including one in each of his last two games) and a .939 OPS since May 15? By the way, the only catchers with more home runs during that time? Brian McCann, Miguel Olivo and Carlos Santana. Wouldn't have guessed that one back in April. Saltalamacchia is being used in a tandem with Jason Varitek behind the plate, so you'll have to watch Terry Francona's lineup card closely, but there's nothing wrong with relying on him in deeper formats right now.

Carlos Guillen 2B, Tigers (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 1.3 percent)

Guillen is 6-for-14 (.429) with a home run and three RBI since making his season debut Saturday and has hit safely in all four games. It's been a long road back for the 35-year-old, who underwent microfracture surgery on his left knee last September. I'll concede that he's likely a ticking timebomb playing second base on a regular basis, but the .286 lifetime hitter can certainly help those in deeper leagues for as long as he can stay healthy.

Brandon Belt 1B, Giants (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 2.6 percent)

Called up to give Aubrey Huff some time off with a sore back, Belt went 2-for-4 with a home run and a double Tuesday in his first game back from the minor leagues. The 23-year-old was hitting .293/.442/.610 with three homers and eight RBI over 12 games with Triple-A Fresno this month, so it's pretty clear he has very little left to prove against minor league pitching. And especially when the Giants' offense needs all the help it can get. I'm not fully convinced that this isn't just another elaborate tease from Giants manager Bruce Bochy, but Belt is worth stashing in most leagues based on his considerable potential.

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AL ONLY

Danny Duffy SP, Royals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

Duffy returned from the minor leagues Tuesday night against the White Sox and turned in perhaps his most impressive start in the big leagues. The 22-year-old left-hander allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings while fanning six and walking a pair. While his ERA stands at 4.58 for the season, he has an impressive 3.89 ERA and 31/10 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 innings over his last six starts. The Royals' six-man rotation both hurts and helps Duffy because while it will delay his potential shutdown, it will also limit the possibility of two-start weeks. Still, I see him as a no-brainer pickup in AL-only leagues as long as he's pitching like this.

Ezequiel Carrera OF, Indians (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.4 percent)

With Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo both sidelined due to injury, the recently-recalled Carrera is expected to see regular playing time in the outfield for the time being. The main reason he warrants your attention? Speed. While not considered a top prospect, the 24-year-old had 35 stolen bases over 81 games with Triple-A Columbus this season. A nice little bonus, he was also drawing walks 10.4 percent of the time. Circumstances could quickly change if the Indians land an outfielder before the deadline, but Carrera is a solid buy in AL-only leagues right now.

Kevin Slowey SP/RP, Twins (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Slowey was knocked around for five runs over seven innings Wednesday in his latest minor league rehab start with Triple-A Rochester, but scouts from multiple major-league clubs were in attendance. With his 30-day rehab clock close to expiring, the Twins are expected to trade the 27-year-old right-hander to a team that will use him as a starting pitcher. Slowey's extreme fly ball tendencies could hurt him depending upon where he lands, but remember that he has averaged 6.79 K/9 and 1.48 BB/9 in the majors. There's value here if he can stay healthy.

Lorenzo Cain OF, Royals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

It looks like Melky Cabrera is a pretty good bet to be traded before the deadline, so it's time to check in on his likely replacement in center field. Cain, who was acquired from the Brewers in the Zack Greinke deal over the winter, is batting .318/.385/.522 with 39 extra-base hits (including 11 homers) and 10 stolen bases over 365 plate appearances with Triple-A Omaha this season. The 25-year-old was useful in NL-only leagues during the second half of the 2010 season due to his speed, so he should already be on your radar.

NL ONLY

Jose Altuve 2B, Astros (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

The Astros traded Jeff Keppinger to the Giants this week, leading to the surprising promotion of one of the more intriguing prospects in baseball. Altuve, 21, has consistently defied the odds in the minor leagues, despite being "listed" at 5-foot-7 and 170 pounds. The diminutive second baseman was batting .389/.426/.591 with 10 homers and 14 steals over 391 plate appearances between High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi this season. He had just 153 at-bats at the Double-A level before his promotion, so chances are he'll struggle in his first taste of the big leagues, but Brad Mills had him in the No. 2 spot for his major league debut Wednesday. He's an obvious pickup in NL-only leagues just in case he continues to surprise.

Edward Mujica RP, Marlins (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1.2 percent)

Many have speculated that left-hander Mike Dunn would take over the ninth inning in the event that Leo Nunez is traded before the deadline, but Marlins manager Jack McKeon said Wednesday that Mujica would actually be his choice because he likes the way he goes after hitters. Mujica, who was acquired from the Padres in the Cameron Maybin trade over the winter, has a healthy 2.98 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 34/5 K/BB ratio over 45 1/3 innings this season. Stash him if you're in the mood to speculate. Let's just hope he isn't caught napping if and/or when he gets the opportunity.

Chien-Ming Wang SP, Nationals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

What can I say, I'm a sucker for a good comeback story. Wang, now 31 years old, has a 1.90 ERA and 12/3 K/BB ratio over his first five minor league rehab starts and is expected to join the Nationals' starting rotation before the end of the month. He hasn't pitched in the big leagues since undergoing shoulder surgery in July of 2009, so be sure to temper any expectations, but he could be a nice find if his sinker is working again.

Yonder Alonso 1B, Reds (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Here's another option with an eye toward the July 31 trade deadline. It's hard to tell if the Reds are buyers or sellers these days, but if they make a push for a major addition, Alonso figures to be one of the most prominent names on the table. Entering play Wednesday, the 24-year-old had a .299/.367/.483 batting line over 825 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Alonso has unfortunately been buried behind defending NL MVP Joey Votto on the depth chart, but he's essentially major-league ready. He's worth monitoring just in case he's set free.

 

[HacheMan]

Internet explodes with trade rumors after Upton's early exit

Trade speculators went into full red-alert mode late Friday night with all signs pointing to an apparent B.J. Upton trade.
The Tampa Bay Rays scratched top outfield prospect Desmond Jennings from his game with Class AAA Durham ... and things really kicked into high gear when Rays managerJoe Maddon replaced Upton in the eighth inning of a blowout loss to the Angels.
There had to be a deal in the works, the reasoning went, if Jennings didn't play and Maddon put a pitcher in the game so that DH Johnny Damon could take over for Upton in the outfield.
As it turned out, there was no Upton trade. But Jennings did get a promotion to the Rays -- with the struggling Reid Brignac sent to the minors.
Still, that hasn't kept the online community from continuing to speculate that Upton could be dealt. The move does give the Rays six outfielders on the 25-man roster. (Most teams carry only four or possibly five.)
Meanwhile, Jennings will take over in left field -- Maddon says he's earned the right to play -- and he can make an immediate fantasy impact with his speed.
The 24-year-old Jennings -- seen as the eventual successor to Upton in center field -- got off to a slow start in the minors this season. But he's improved his season average to .275 with 12 homers and most importantly 17 stolen bases in 18 attempts. In his four previous minor-league seasons, he's averaged 41 steals.
With the Rays traditionally among the major league leaders in steals, Jennings could be a difference-maker in that category down the stretch.

 

[HacheMan]

Speculative moves to make before the trade deadline

Josh Reddick made the most of his opportunity when Carl Crawford (hamstring strain) went on the DL in June. The 24-year-old lefty is hitting .378 with four home runs and 18 RBI in 82 at-bats with the Bosox this year, including going 10-for-28 (.357) with two HRs and six RBI in the last two weeks. However, now that Crawford is back, will there be any place for Reddick in Boston's stacked lineup?
J.D. Drew isn't carrying his weight in right field (.219-4-21), and although Terry Francona is very loyal to his vets, Reddick's play is forcing the issue. GM Theo Epstein on the subject: "You can't deny what Josh Reddick is doing and you can't deny that he's a different player than he's been."
Reddick has played over a healthy Drew in right recently, so it appears that Reddick has moved ahead of Drew as the starter for the foreseeable future. Epstein acknowledged that Reddick has always been an athletic outfielder and playmaker on the bases, but now that his approach at the plate has matured -- he is more disciplined (10 walks, 15 strikeouts) and has a better plan of attack -- he is becoming a part of the future in Beantown. In addition to AL-only leagues, Reddick is worth considering in deep mixed leagues. -Keith Hernandez
Someone might already be stashing San Diego reliever Mike Adams or Tampa Bay speedster Desmond Jennings in anticipation of MLB deadline deals that would create opportunities for those players. If not, especially if you could use saves or stolen bases, then do so.
In mixed leagues, the July 31 fallout rarely has many drastic consequences, but in some cases, it might've benefited you to act sooner. It's not just which players you get; it's also how much you pay for them.
The Royals will almost certainly peddle Melky Cabrera. Jeff Francoeur could leave town too. Lorenzo Cain, 25, has posted a .318/.385/.522 slash line this season at Class AAA Omaha and would step in. He's swiped only 10 bases in 15 attempts, but he stole 33 combined between the minors and majors last season. In KC, he's much likelier to be a thief than a power player.
Jack McKeon has taken a liking to Edward Mujica. The hardened skipper indicated that he'd turn to the aggressive right-hander -- who's 8-2 with a 2.85 ERA, a 6.65 K/9 and a 0.95 BB/9 this season -- in save situations if the Marlins were to deal Leo Nunez.
All three of the A's outfielders are on the block, and they've received far-below-average production at first base. It's time to give slugger Chris Carter, 24, an extended look, so that he has a chance to play through his strikeout-laden slumps, as he showed he could to close 2010.
You're not going to hit on every gamble you take. It's hard to find an excuse to set aside Kyle McClellan in case St. Louis trades for a starting pitcher and eventually gives him a shot to close. But if you pay a couple of bucks now, you'll avoid dishing out five or 10 times as much later. That savings will come in handy, if it hasn't already. -Nicholas Minnix