Minors: Mike Trout profile, Top 11 for '11
Jason Grey
"I don't really look at that stuff. I just try to go out and play hard and have fun."
Angels outfield prospect Mike Trout says he doesn't pay attention to the press clippings or the speculation that he's on the fast track to the big leagues, offering the above take when I asked him about it Wednesday afternoon before watching him in the Texas League All-Star Game. Trout went 2-for-4 with an RBI in the contest.
No worse than the second-best hitting prospect in the minors (depending on how you feel about Bryce Harper), Trout was the 25th overall pick in the 2009 draft. He crushed rookie-ball pitching shortly after that, put up a .341 AVG/.428 OBP/.490 SLG stat line with 56 steals across two levels of Class A ball last season and hasn't missed a beat at Double-A this year, hitting .325/.425/.549 with nine homers and 26 steals.
"I think I'm doing a better job at making adjustments," Trout said. "Last year I was out there trying to do too much, but this year I'm comfortable, and just trying to hit the ball hard every time."
The scouting grades back up the performance. Trout's hit tool grades out as a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, thanks to his great eye and good approach at the plate. He has gotten bigger and stronger this year, and the leverage he gets in his compact swing from the right side, and knack for hard contact, should lead to 20-plus homers and a .300-plus batting average in the big leagues down the road. He can make an impact with his glove as well, with the ability to rank among the best defenders in center field, or slide over to left if Peter Bourjos remains in center for the Angels. (If that happens and I'm a free-agent starting pitcher who is prone to allowing fly balls, sign me up.)
And of course there's the true 80 speed on the scouting scale, with the instincts on the bases to go with it, allowing him to put up the big steals totals that fantasy owners crave. Plenty of superlatives here for a player who doesn't even turn 20 until August.
Trout will still pull off of the ball on occasion, and sometimes his leg kick gets a little too high, preventing him from getting his front foot down in time to hit hard fastballs, but even then his strong hands and wrists can allow him to hit the ball to the opposite field. There are minor consistency issues, but again, he's not even 20 yet.
There has been plenty of talk about Trout potentially getting the call this season, but I would guess he gets a late-August/September cup of coffee, at best, which is why he hasn't appeared in the "Top 11 for '11" list below. There's no need to rush him, especially with the club having a full outfield at the moment, so he's probably more of a 2012 play rather than someone who could be helping fantasy owners in July. Stranger things have happened, and it would not surprise me if he got a look before late August, but that's my speculation right now. Someone commented in last week's Minor League Watch that Trout could have more of an impact in the month of September than some other prospects could have in two months, and that's certainly plausible. When he does debut, his wheels can make him valuable immediately even if his bat needs time to adjust.
Regardless of which side you fall on in regard to Harper or Trout being the best prospect in baseball, when it comes to Roto play, Trout might be the more valuable prospect because of the speed dimension he adds to the rest of his offensive game. He could have an across-the-board impact in whatever categories your league uses.
Top 11 for '11
The now-standard caveats: There's a certain throwing-darts-at-the-wall nature to determining a list such as this because there's no telling when a player will actually arrive on the scene. Who will get the summons obviously depends on a variety of factors, such as team needs, injuries and performance.
Thus, for the purpose of this list, I try to balance a prospect's upside with who is likely to get an opportunity in the near future. I look for potential paths to big league playing time, factor in service-time concerns and rank only players who: 1) are still rookie-eligible and 2) are not already in the major leagues. To highlight some different names, I'm also not including players such as Julio Teheran who have already been in the big leagues this year but have been sent back down, nor players such as Dustin Ackley who have gotten the call.
Please note that this list is for 2011 fantasy value only, not for the long haul, so you won't see names such as Bryce Harper on it. Not yet, anyway. It spotlights players who could help fantasy teams this season, with no regard for 2012 and beyond. Season the list to your particular taste and your fantasy team's needs.
Indians prospect Lonnie Chisenhall, who has made several appearances on this list in 2011 (and has been one of the final cuts when he didn't), was called up earlier this week. I wrote a full profile of him, offering my short- and long-term expectations for him, in Tuesday's Clipboard.
1. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays: Jennings is getting on base with regularity at Triple-A (.372 OBP) and has hit 10 homers and stolen 15 bases (in 16 attempts). Jennings' owners have to be frustrated by his lack of a call-up by this point, but the Rays are being patient with him (which is partially necessary because his call-up last year has affected his service-time clock). He had 89 steals combined in the minors in 2009 and 2010 (and another two in the majors), and he has the on-base ability to make good use of that speed in the majors. He could be a category-changer in stolen bases when he arrives, assuming he'll play every day, with the ability to rack up much-needed thefts quickly. Jennings missed a couple of games recently because of a sore wrist, but he returned from the injury on Wednesday.
3. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers: Will Robinson be the next player in the Dodgers' youth movement to get the call, especially given the lack of production they are getting from their left-field spot? Jerry Sands has been hitting well since returning to Triple-A, but Robinson could get the next look. He's on a massive tear after slumping in May. He has hit .361 with seven homers this month, with the switch-hitter doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching, and has hit .307 with 17 homers overall in a great hitting environment. Robinson is likely in the club's plans for the second half.
3. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins: The next opening in the Twins' rotation could go to Gibson. The 2009 first-rounder has fanned 83 batters, with nearly a 4-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, in 81⅓ innings in 15 Triple-A starts this season. He also has a nice ground ball profile to go with it, which could help him have success at the big league level right out of the gate.
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks: A month ago, it was looking more like a late-August/September timeframe for a Goldschmidt call-up, at best. However, with Goldschmidt continuing to rake at Double-A -- he has hit .318 with 24 homers and almost as many walks as strikeouts -- D-backs general manager Kevin Towers said this recently to the Arizona Republic in reference to Goldschmidt and Collin Cowgill (more on him below): "Leading up to the All-Star game, that's when we'd probably have to decide to make moves. I think we're always looking for ways to improve the club, and the first place we're going to look is internal."
I posted a full scouting report on Goldschmidt back in May, addressing some of the concerns about him despite his phenomenal numbers in the minors.
5. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians: Chisenhall and Cord Phelps have already gotten the call; Kipnis is next. The club's second baseman of the future could become the second baseman of the present soon. The left-handed hitter is hitting lefties and righties; is batting .302 with 10 homers; and is a perfect 10-for-10 in steals at Triple-A. Tribe manager Manny Acta noted this past week that Kipnis is still working on his defense after transitioning from the outfield, and that work will dictate when Kipnis gets the call.
6. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays: When Lawrie was hit on the hand by a pitch at the end of May, it was not thought to be serious. However, after the swelling went down, it was revealed he had a non-displaced fracture, and he has been slow to recover; he has been fielding grounders and playing catch but hasn't swung a bat yet because he's having problems gripping it. So we might not see him until the beginning of August. It was bad timing because he was expected to be called up within a day or two of the injury occurring. We have to wait a little longer now, but he can still do damage in two months. He'd obviously rank higher if he wasn't injured. (Note: He initially will be eligible only at second base in ESPN standard leagues when he arrives.)
7. Collin Cowgill, OF, Diamondbacks: Cowgill, who has drawn Cody Ross comparisons from multiple scouts, has seemingly come out of nowhere to provide video-game numbers in a great batting environment at Triple-A Reno. If the club wanted more offense from its left fielder -- though starter Gerardo Parra has provided stellar defense and hit for a decent batting average -- Cowgill could be an option, even though he might not profile as a regular long term. Cowgill has hit .363 with 12 homers and 24 steals this season, but just to provide context, his OPS and slugging percentage marks are still just the 11th and 12th highest marks, respectively, posted in the PCL this year.
8. Jacob Turner, SP, Tigers: As I've mentioned in the past, it might be a bit premature to put Turner here, but the Tigers (manager and general manager) said as far back as spring training that Turner was on the short list for the club's rotation depth this season, and the Tigers have never been afraid to promote prospects aggressively. Turner has struck out 72 batters in 86⅔ innings, with a 3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, at Double-A and could conceivably be promoted right from there given the Tigers' rotation issues at the moment. Turner has gone at least six innings in eight consecutive starts.
9. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees: Montero has not been lighting it up at Triple-A, batting just .282 with five homers, so he's not exactly forcing the issue with either his offense or defense. As I mentioned last week, though, there is growing sentiment among some talent evaluators that he's stagnating in his second season at Triple-A, and his bat could come to life with a promotion. In a down year for fantasy catchers, he would be worth a look even in mixed leagues if he gets the call.
10. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds: The Reds have gotten a combined .227/.274/.262 stat line from their shortstops this season. Meanwhile, Cozart is hitting .327 with seven homers and nine steals at Triple-A, and has handled the position well defensively. General manager Walt Jocketty recently told Cincinnati.com that the team was not ready to look at Cozart just yet, but we imagine they could get to that point very soon. (They also could get a look at catcher prospect Devin Mesoraco, whom I profiled recently.)
11. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs: Jackson hasn't been hitting well at Double-A since returning from a finger injury, but Cubs VP of player personnel Oneri Fleita indicated to ESPN Chicago earlier this season that Jackson was on their radar screen. "The beauty of Brett Jackson is he always had a good eye," Fleita said. "He takes his walks. He's always going to throw to the right base. He has a good foundation that will allow him to have success. If the opportunity comes up [for a promotion], why not?" A hot streak from Jackson could land him in the big leagues for the final two months of the season.
Jason Grey
"I don't really look at that stuff. I just try to go out and play hard and have fun."
Angels outfield prospect Mike Trout says he doesn't pay attention to the press clippings or the speculation that he's on the fast track to the big leagues, offering the above take when I asked him about it Wednesday afternoon before watching him in the Texas League All-Star Game. Trout went 2-for-4 with an RBI in the contest.
No worse than the second-best hitting prospect in the minors (depending on how you feel about Bryce Harper), Trout was the 25th overall pick in the 2009 draft. He crushed rookie-ball pitching shortly after that, put up a .341 AVG/.428 OBP/.490 SLG stat line with 56 steals across two levels of Class A ball last season and hasn't missed a beat at Double-A this year, hitting .325/.425/.549 with nine homers and 26 steals.
"I think I'm doing a better job at making adjustments," Trout said. "Last year I was out there trying to do too much, but this year I'm comfortable, and just trying to hit the ball hard every time."
The scouting grades back up the performance. Trout's hit tool grades out as a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, thanks to his great eye and good approach at the plate. He has gotten bigger and stronger this year, and the leverage he gets in his compact swing from the right side, and knack for hard contact, should lead to 20-plus homers and a .300-plus batting average in the big leagues down the road. He can make an impact with his glove as well, with the ability to rank among the best defenders in center field, or slide over to left if Peter Bourjos remains in center for the Angels. (If that happens and I'm a free-agent starting pitcher who is prone to allowing fly balls, sign me up.)
And of course there's the true 80 speed on the scouting scale, with the instincts on the bases to go with it, allowing him to put up the big steals totals that fantasy owners crave. Plenty of superlatives here for a player who doesn't even turn 20 until August.
Trout will still pull off of the ball on occasion, and sometimes his leg kick gets a little too high, preventing him from getting his front foot down in time to hit hard fastballs, but even then his strong hands and wrists can allow him to hit the ball to the opposite field. There are minor consistency issues, but again, he's not even 20 yet.
There has been plenty of talk about Trout potentially getting the call this season, but I would guess he gets a late-August/September cup of coffee, at best, which is why he hasn't appeared in the "Top 11 for '11" list below. There's no need to rush him, especially with the club having a full outfield at the moment, so he's probably more of a 2012 play rather than someone who could be helping fantasy owners in July. Stranger things have happened, and it would not surprise me if he got a look before late August, but that's my speculation right now. Someone commented in last week's Minor League Watch that Trout could have more of an impact in the month of September than some other prospects could have in two months, and that's certainly plausible. When he does debut, his wheels can make him valuable immediately even if his bat needs time to adjust.
Regardless of which side you fall on in regard to Harper or Trout being the best prospect in baseball, when it comes to Roto play, Trout might be the more valuable prospect because of the speed dimension he adds to the rest of his offensive game. He could have an across-the-board impact in whatever categories your league uses.
Top 11 for '11
The now-standard caveats: There's a certain throwing-darts-at-the-wall nature to determining a list such as this because there's no telling when a player will actually arrive on the scene. Who will get the summons obviously depends on a variety of factors, such as team needs, injuries and performance.
Thus, for the purpose of this list, I try to balance a prospect's upside with who is likely to get an opportunity in the near future. I look for potential paths to big league playing time, factor in service-time concerns and rank only players who: 1) are still rookie-eligible and 2) are not already in the major leagues. To highlight some different names, I'm also not including players such as Julio Teheran who have already been in the big leagues this year but have been sent back down, nor players such as Dustin Ackley who have gotten the call.
Please note that this list is for 2011 fantasy value only, not for the long haul, so you won't see names such as Bryce Harper on it. Not yet, anyway. It spotlights players who could help fantasy teams this season, with no regard for 2012 and beyond. Season the list to your particular taste and your fantasy team's needs.
Indians prospect Lonnie Chisenhall, who has made several appearances on this list in 2011 (and has been one of the final cuts when he didn't), was called up earlier this week. I wrote a full profile of him, offering my short- and long-term expectations for him, in Tuesday's Clipboard.
1. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays: Jennings is getting on base with regularity at Triple-A (.372 OBP) and has hit 10 homers and stolen 15 bases (in 16 attempts). Jennings' owners have to be frustrated by his lack of a call-up by this point, but the Rays are being patient with him (which is partially necessary because his call-up last year has affected his service-time clock). He had 89 steals combined in the minors in 2009 and 2010 (and another two in the majors), and he has the on-base ability to make good use of that speed in the majors. He could be a category-changer in stolen bases when he arrives, assuming he'll play every day, with the ability to rack up much-needed thefts quickly. Jennings missed a couple of games recently because of a sore wrist, but he returned from the injury on Wednesday.
3. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers: Will Robinson be the next player in the Dodgers' youth movement to get the call, especially given the lack of production they are getting from their left-field spot? Jerry Sands has been hitting well since returning to Triple-A, but Robinson could get the next look. He's on a massive tear after slumping in May. He has hit .361 with seven homers this month, with the switch-hitter doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching, and has hit .307 with 17 homers overall in a great hitting environment. Robinson is likely in the club's plans for the second half.
3. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins: The next opening in the Twins' rotation could go to Gibson. The 2009 first-rounder has fanned 83 batters, with nearly a 4-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, in 81⅓ innings in 15 Triple-A starts this season. He also has a nice ground ball profile to go with it, which could help him have success at the big league level right out of the gate.
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks: A month ago, it was looking more like a late-August/September timeframe for a Goldschmidt call-up, at best. However, with Goldschmidt continuing to rake at Double-A -- he has hit .318 with 24 homers and almost as many walks as strikeouts -- D-backs general manager Kevin Towers said this recently to the Arizona Republic in reference to Goldschmidt and Collin Cowgill (more on him below): "Leading up to the All-Star game, that's when we'd probably have to decide to make moves. I think we're always looking for ways to improve the club, and the first place we're going to look is internal."
I posted a full scouting report on Goldschmidt back in May, addressing some of the concerns about him despite his phenomenal numbers in the minors.
5. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians: Chisenhall and Cord Phelps have already gotten the call; Kipnis is next. The club's second baseman of the future could become the second baseman of the present soon. The left-handed hitter is hitting lefties and righties; is batting .302 with 10 homers; and is a perfect 10-for-10 in steals at Triple-A. Tribe manager Manny Acta noted this past week that Kipnis is still working on his defense after transitioning from the outfield, and that work will dictate when Kipnis gets the call.
6. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays: When Lawrie was hit on the hand by a pitch at the end of May, it was not thought to be serious. However, after the swelling went down, it was revealed he had a non-displaced fracture, and he has been slow to recover; he has been fielding grounders and playing catch but hasn't swung a bat yet because he's having problems gripping it. So we might not see him until the beginning of August. It was bad timing because he was expected to be called up within a day or two of the injury occurring. We have to wait a little longer now, but he can still do damage in two months. He'd obviously rank higher if he wasn't injured. (Note: He initially will be eligible only at second base in ESPN standard leagues when he arrives.)
7. Collin Cowgill, OF, Diamondbacks: Cowgill, who has drawn Cody Ross comparisons from multiple scouts, has seemingly come out of nowhere to provide video-game numbers in a great batting environment at Triple-A Reno. If the club wanted more offense from its left fielder -- though starter Gerardo Parra has provided stellar defense and hit for a decent batting average -- Cowgill could be an option, even though he might not profile as a regular long term. Cowgill has hit .363 with 12 homers and 24 steals this season, but just to provide context, his OPS and slugging percentage marks are still just the 11th and 12th highest marks, respectively, posted in the PCL this year.
8. Jacob Turner, SP, Tigers: As I've mentioned in the past, it might be a bit premature to put Turner here, but the Tigers (manager and general manager) said as far back as spring training that Turner was on the short list for the club's rotation depth this season, and the Tigers have never been afraid to promote prospects aggressively. Turner has struck out 72 batters in 86⅔ innings, with a 3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, at Double-A and could conceivably be promoted right from there given the Tigers' rotation issues at the moment. Turner has gone at least six innings in eight consecutive starts.
9. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees: Montero has not been lighting it up at Triple-A, batting just .282 with five homers, so he's not exactly forcing the issue with either his offense or defense. As I mentioned last week, though, there is growing sentiment among some talent evaluators that he's stagnating in his second season at Triple-A, and his bat could come to life with a promotion. In a down year for fantasy catchers, he would be worth a look even in mixed leagues if he gets the call.
10. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds: The Reds have gotten a combined .227/.274/.262 stat line from their shortstops this season. Meanwhile, Cozart is hitting .327 with seven homers and nine steals at Triple-A, and has handled the position well defensively. General manager Walt Jocketty recently told Cincinnati.com that the team was not ready to look at Cozart just yet, but we imagine they could get to that point very soon. (They also could get a look at catcher prospect Devin Mesoraco, whom I profiled recently.)
11. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs: Jackson hasn't been hitting well at Double-A since returning from a finger injury, but Cubs VP of player personnel Oneri Fleita indicated to ESPN Chicago earlier this season that Jackson was on their radar screen. "The beauty of Brett Jackson is he always had a good eye," Fleita said. "He takes his walks. He's always going to throw to the right base. He has a good foundation that will allow him to have success. If the opportunity comes up [for a promotion], why not?" A hot streak from Jackson could land him in the big leagues for the final two months of the season.
