MisterMJ MLB System Plays

[Kuxinvictusx740]

Hi MJ,
first I wanna say great work on these so far this year, I've been combining these selections with manual capping since a little before the all-star break and been having some good success.
i just wanted to point out something to you that you may not have noticed over the recent plays- over the last two weeks the selections have almost exclusively contained the Mets or the White Sox. These teams both have horrid problems with their bullpen (and starting pitching to a lesser extent) and this is likely creating a bit of a down turn in this system. Please correct me if I'm wrong but my guess is that the main qualifiers for this system is a combo of mostly sabermetric batting stats vs starting pitching as a smaller factor.
In the earlier parts of the season and just post all-stat break the system was thriving. During this time period the selections contained a lot of: Seattle, padres, Kansas City, ect. I think the reasoning is the combination is mostly these teams don't score a ton but have just excellent pitching and bullpens comparatively to the rest of the league. I would throw teams like Atlanta in this crowd as well but I don't recall many selections with them.
I look forward to your selections and hope that you find what's best for your system.

 

[Mistermj]

Hi Kux, thanks for the comments.

I think we have to be very careful assuming anything is happening based on recent 10 or 15 picks.

Over the last two weeks the Mets are 1-3 with our unders and the White Sox are 2-1 with our unders. Going 3-4 between the both of them really doesn' t suggest anything to me.

I think we are 5-6 since Aug. 1 so I will keep an eye on that as August always seems to be a problem, but again it doesn't really tell us anything yet.

After almost 3 months and 70 picks we are still around 65% overall.

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies today.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies today.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies with the Saber Unders today.
But I do have a Saber Select Over at 10:15 PM ET.


I've been tracking the Saber Overs since early August and based on 18 picks they "might" be showing some signs of life too. It's too small of a sample to get all excited yet. At 30 picks we can start to make an educated guess but it would still be just a guess.


I advise caution because of what I just explained about the sample size.


If you are going to play them maybe a good way to do that would be to average into them with smaller wagers and if they continue to perform....then work your way up to full size wagers after you are playing with house money.


The Saber Systems have been one big experiment since June, but it's been a very successful one so far.. It's been fun to share the process with you and it has a chance to really turn into something useful going forward, and for next season.


I would love to have a season long Saber Over/ Under system that's adjustable to season trends. For me this is as good as it gets. From my end, it's a beautiful and tight system to run. We'll see how this ends up at the end of the season.


More info on the pick and record below.


MJ


Saber Overs Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring over performance)

Monday, August 25

Colorado - 10:15 PM ET Over 7.5 100
San Francisco


10-*7-*1 58.82% +*$230 +2.3 Units

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/24/14 1-0-0 100.00% +100
08/23/14 0-1-0 0.00% -110
08/22/14 2-0-0 100.00% +200
08/20/14 0-1-0 0.00% -110
08/19/14 1-0-0 100.00% +100
08/17/14 3-0-0 100.00% +300
08/16/14 0-1-1 0.00% -110
08/15/14 1-0-0 100.00% +100
08/14/14 0-1-0 0.00% -110
08/13/14 0-1-0 0.00% -110
08/11/14 1-0-0 100.00% +100
08/08/14 1-2-0 33.33% -120

 

[Mistermj]

We have a Saber Under Select and a Saber Over Select tonight.

Keep in mind that the Over system has a much smaller sample size.


More information included below.


Good luck.
MJ

Saber Unders Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring under performance)


Tuesday, August 26
Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Under 7.5 100

Baltimore


43-23-4 65.15% +$1760 +17.6 Units

==================
Saber Overs Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring over performance)

Tuesday, August 26
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Colorado - 10:15 PM ET Over 6.5 100
San Francisco


10-*8-*1 55.56% +*$120 +1.2 Units

 

[srymoniqueocupado]

Mj, I put a half a U in the over select last night. I know u document them as 1/100 per bet but realistically, should we be betting even less than half a U for the time being?

 

[Mistermj]

I really don't know either. Unders may be the only thing we find value with and we shouldn't assume it will cross over to the overs as well.

Half a unit or less depending on your risk tolerance. They have shown enough life that I don't think you will get hurt too bad with half units as a worse case scenario.

I might also have to adjust them...making them more select. Sometimes that's all it takes to find the sweet spot.

In fact I am going to do that going forward. In effect I will make it a little harder for the overs to qualify, and of course less picks moving toward quality over quantity.

This is a work in progress.

 

[Mistermj]

One Saber Under Select qualifies tonight.No overs today.


The pick and more information included below.


Good luck.
MJ


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Saber Unders Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring under performance)

Wednesday, August 27

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Under 8 100
Baltimore

44-*23-*4 65.67% +*$1860 +18.6 Units

 

[rywill2006]

Good luck mj... Have the two game chase picks ceased?

 

[Mistermj]

Good luck mj... Have the two game chase picks ceased?

We seemed to be spinning our wheels with the 2 game chase this season.

I couldn't see spending anymore time with it, when the Unders were going crazy.

 

[Mistermj]

One Saber Under and one Saber Over today. The over is an early game at 1:07 PM ET.

The Unders still look ok.



The over system still has something to prove to us with only 20 picks so far.


Play the overs at half units or smaller is my advice. Use caution with the Overs until we get more information.
I am tightening up the over system to see if we can get better performance. There will be less picks, but hopefully better quality going forward.


The picks and more info included below.


Good luck to us.
MJ


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Saber Unders Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring under performance)

Thursday, August 28
Texas - 8:10 PM ET Under 8 100
Houston

45-*23-*4 66.17% +$*1960 +19.6 Units

===========
Saber Overs Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring over performance)

Thursday, August 28
NY Yankees - 1:08 PM ET Over 8.5 100
Detroit

10-*9-*1 52.63% +*$10 +.1 Unit

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies today.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies again today. We just have bad match ups this weekend , so far. I

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies again today. I think we'll do better with the next series.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

We have a Saber Under in an early game this afternoon at 1:10 PM ET.

And we also have an Over in a night game tonight.


Look at the records and you can see the Overs still have something to prove, so I recommend caution with the Over system.


Decide for yourself if you want to play the Over, but it might be best to just track them until we get to 30 picks and take another look at playing them after that.


The picks and more information are included below.


Good luck.
MJ


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Saber Unders Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring under performance)


Monday, September 1
NY Mets - 1:10 PM ET Under 7 100
Miami

46-*23-*4 66.67% +*$2060 +20.6 Units


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Saber Overs Select (System uses Sabermetric stats to try to predict scoring over performance)

Monday, September 1
Washington - 8:10 PM ET Over 7.5 100
LA Dodgers

10-*10-*1 50.00% -*$100 (-1 Unit)

 

[finite]

Harsh reality. Never play Wheeler in a day under. His day games are a monster over

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies today.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

Nothing qualifies today.

Just a quick note, I am not trying to slow down the number of picks. I have tightened things up a little, especially with the overs. Mostly it's a lack of the right match ups lately. Today is also a small card.


Recent O/U trends according to Covers closing lines indicates Last 7 days, and Last 30 days still has a tilt toward the Unders in the 52 % -53% range.


MJ

 

[indiana]

MJ............it will happen when its right............appreciate the info....................indy