The system is still only 10-12 weeks old in the NFL and pretty much new in all other sports. Getting better by the day and know how to approach the Bowl Season next year when we get to the NY6 Bowl Games and some of the post New Year's games. Whole different animal. Thanks for the support G-Man and all others.
Some key players in here for Ohio State missing tonight and the full numbers including these injuries have been calculated for the game.
OUT
CB Cam Brown
DL Jalcobe Cowan
K Dominic DiMaccio
DT Ty Hamilton
WR Jaylen Harris
K Blake Haubeil
OT Dawand Jones
LB Cade Kacherski
LB Mitchell Melton
DE Tyreke Smith
DT Tommy Togiai
SAF Kourt Williams
RB Miyan Williams
Looks like Master Teague is a go for a change of pace and power game in the backfield.
OUT
CB Cam Brown
DL Jalcobe Cowan
K Dominic DiMaccio
DT Ty Hamilton
WR Jaylen Harris
K Blake Haubeil
OT Dawand Jones
LB Cade Kacherski
LB Mitchell Melton
DE Tyreke Smith
DT Tommy Togiai
SAF Kourt Williams
RB Miyan Williams
Looks like Master Teague is a go for a change of pace and power game in the backfield.
It's been one heck of a ride the last 11-12 weeks in all sports with my new system. I've done my best to put it all together without any previous data available for past season and intangibles that would have impacted my lines so I've done my best in Year 1 and looking to come back and even better in Year 2. One last time here we go. Here are you Suggested Lines for the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME tonight:
Ohio State vs. Alabama
Suggested Line 1: Alabama -17.88
Suggested Line 2: Alabama -18.01
Suggested Line 3: Alabama -18.56
Suggested Line 4: Alabama -19.33
This is interesting to say the least. It looks like we have a FADE spot tonight and a pretty big one at that. The same fade I should have used in the Clemson-Ohio State game had I not made too many adjustments. Stay tuned for the official System Play which will be posted 10 minutes before scheduled kickoff.
:toast:
Ohio State vs. Alabama
Suggested Line 1: Alabama -17.88
Suggested Line 2: Alabama -18.01
Suggested Line 3: Alabama -18.56
Suggested Line 4: Alabama -19.33
This is interesting to say the least. It looks like we have a FADE spot tonight and a pretty big one at that. The same fade I should have used in the Clemson-Ohio State game had I not made too many adjustments. Stay tuned for the official System Play which will be posted 10 minutes before scheduled kickoff.
:toast:
adding...
Monday, January 11
BCS National Championship Game
Ohio State vs. Alabama
Suggested Line 1: Alabama -17.88
Suggested Line 2: Alabama -18.01
Suggested Line 3: Alabama -18.56
Suggested Line 4: Alabama -19.33
PLAY: Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 (50 Units)
This is easily going to be my largest play of the football season and I'm going with my System one final time. The Ohio State Buckeyes looked pretty damn good in their CFP Semi-Final revenge game against the Clemson Tigers but that doesn't always mean they'll look good in this game. We all saw Notre Dame pull off the backdoor cover on the final drive of the game to cover the +19 points in their Semi-Final against Alabama but anyone who actually watched that game knows the Crimson Tide took their foot off the pedal at Halftime and seemed to just try and get to the end without revealing too much of the playbook in the process. Notre Dame was that bad. When the season first started all we kept hearing was that if the young Ohio State defense can find a way to get over their losses (Chase Young for the most part) from a year ago this team would be great. Well they didn't look so great early on in the season but if you want to see how far this group came look no further than what they did to a Heisman Trophy quarterback Trevor Lawrence last week. It took the Buckeyes only 1-2 drives to adjust to the Clemson offense and at the end of the night they allowed only 444 total yards of offense. Nobody does that to Clemson. All this talk about RB Najee Harris and how he is going to dominate the ground game today but remember RB Travis Etienne for Clemson? Yeah he was held to 32 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. That's huge and the Buckeyes defense had Lawrence confused and unable to do much all night. I expect the same tonight. All you can do is throw on Ohio State because they shut the run game down and that's a problem for opponents on early downs. The emergence of Ohio State RB Trey Sermon is HUGE for this team and has completely changed the landscape of how this offense operates. Forget his 300+ yard record breaking game in the Big Ten Championship Game against a GREAT defense but how about 193 rushing yards against the Clemson defense to go with his 4 catches and 61 yards? INCREDIBLE and has completely changed the Buckeyes offense and taken them to a new level. They did not have this early on in the season. Also tons of talk about the Bama receivers in this game (Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle who has not played since October and John Meetchie) but what about the Buckeyes receivers Olave and Wilson? Had the Buckeyes played a full 12 games there is a good chance both these guys would be up for Heisman consideration. Fact.
Injuries. Last night's NFL game was a great example of the media putting out information and using scare tactics almost to sway people to one side. All we heard in the Browns-Steelers game is how their coach is out and the offense is doomed because of it. Well not so fast. The Ohio State DL will be missing some key players but Ohio State has always been a NEXT MAN UP Program and none more evident than QB Cardale Jones and the last time the Buckeyes were in a National Championship Game. Ironically enough it was against Alabama as well. QB Justin Fields showed what his heart is made of in the Semi-Finals when he legit lost 4-5 ribs early in the game on that hit but begged to come back in when everyone said he couldn't and threw a touchdown pass on the next play. Not only did he throw a TD pass he finished that game. I have to keep reminding everyone that Alabama does NOT rank in the TOP 10 in any major defensive category and they have allowed close to 20 points per game this season. Ohio State is without a kicker tonight and that means they'll likely go for 2 after touchdowns which I love for a team with so many tricks up their sleeves.
Now for the fun part. From my buddy Chris Fallica on ESPN here are Ohio State's Last 9 Games as an underdog dog : 2020 Clemson +7 Won by 21 (CFP Playoff Game). 2019 Clemson +2.5 Lost by 6 (CFP Playoff Game). 2018 Michigan +4 Won by 23. 2014 Oregon +6.5 Won by 22 (CFP Playoff Game) 2014 Alabama +9 Won by 7 (National Championship Game). 2014 Wisconsin +4 Won by 59 . 2014 Michigan State +4 Won by 12. 2012 Wisconsin +2 Won by 7 . 2012 Michigan State +2.5 Won by 1. That's impressive stuff. Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in January and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Bowl Games. Alabama comes into this game 0-4 ATS in their last four National Championship Games and they have almost always struggle to win this game big. I think all the talk about Fields and Ohio State missing players is a bunch of crap because of how good this coaching staff is at working with what they have. This should be a tremendous game and the Buckeyes will win this on a late turnover to become National Champions for the first time since 2015. Long time coming.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 9-1 Straight Up in their last 10 games as an Underdog dating back to 2012.
Ohio State 34, Alabama 31
:toast:
Monday, January 11
BCS National Championship Game
Ohio State vs. Alabama
Suggested Line 1: Alabama -17.88
Suggested Line 2: Alabama -18.01
Suggested Line 3: Alabama -18.56
Suggested Line 4: Alabama -19.33
PLAY: Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 (50 Units)
This is easily going to be my largest play of the football season and I'm going with my System one final time. The Ohio State Buckeyes looked pretty damn good in their CFP Semi-Final revenge game against the Clemson Tigers but that doesn't always mean they'll look good in this game. We all saw Notre Dame pull off the backdoor cover on the final drive of the game to cover the +19 points in their Semi-Final against Alabama but anyone who actually watched that game knows the Crimson Tide took their foot off the pedal at Halftime and seemed to just try and get to the end without revealing too much of the playbook in the process. Notre Dame was that bad. When the season first started all we kept hearing was that if the young Ohio State defense can find a way to get over their losses (Chase Young for the most part) from a year ago this team would be great. Well they didn't look so great early on in the season but if you want to see how far this group came look no further than what they did to a Heisman Trophy quarterback Trevor Lawrence last week. It took the Buckeyes only 1-2 drives to adjust to the Clemson offense and at the end of the night they allowed only 444 total yards of offense. Nobody does that to Clemson. All this talk about RB Najee Harris and how he is going to dominate the ground game today but remember RB Travis Etienne for Clemson? Yeah he was held to 32 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. That's huge and the Buckeyes defense had Lawrence confused and unable to do much all night. I expect the same tonight. All you can do is throw on Ohio State because they shut the run game down and that's a problem for opponents on early downs. The emergence of Ohio State RB Trey Sermon is HUGE for this team and has completely changed the landscape of how this offense operates. Forget his 300+ yard record breaking game in the Big Ten Championship Game against a GREAT defense but how about 193 rushing yards against the Clemson defense to go with his 4 catches and 61 yards? INCREDIBLE and has completely changed the Buckeyes offense and taken them to a new level. They did not have this early on in the season. Also tons of talk about the Bama receivers in this game (Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle who has not played since October and John Meetchie) but what about the Buckeyes receivers Olave and Wilson? Had the Buckeyes played a full 12 games there is a good chance both these guys would be up for Heisman consideration. Fact.
Injuries. Last night's NFL game was a great example of the media putting out information and using scare tactics almost to sway people to one side. All we heard in the Browns-Steelers game is how their coach is out and the offense is doomed because of it. Well not so fast. The Ohio State DL will be missing some key players but Ohio State has always been a NEXT MAN UP Program and none more evident than QB Cardale Jones and the last time the Buckeyes were in a National Championship Game. Ironically enough it was against Alabama as well. QB Justin Fields showed what his heart is made of in the Semi-Finals when he legit lost 4-5 ribs early in the game on that hit but begged to come back in when everyone said he couldn't and threw a touchdown pass on the next play. Not only did he throw a TD pass he finished that game. I have to keep reminding everyone that Alabama does NOT rank in the TOP 10 in any major defensive category and they have allowed close to 20 points per game this season. Ohio State is without a kicker tonight and that means they'll likely go for 2 after touchdowns which I love for a team with so many tricks up their sleeves.
Now for the fun part. From my buddy Chris Fallica on ESPN here are Ohio State's Last 9 Games as an underdog dog : 2020 Clemson +7 Won by 21 (CFP Playoff Game). 2019 Clemson +2.5 Lost by 6 (CFP Playoff Game). 2018 Michigan +4 Won by 23. 2014 Oregon +6.5 Won by 22 (CFP Playoff Game) 2014 Alabama +9 Won by 7 (National Championship Game). 2014 Wisconsin +4 Won by 59 . 2014 Michigan State +4 Won by 12. 2012 Wisconsin +2 Won by 7 . 2012 Michigan State +2.5 Won by 1. That's impressive stuff. Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in January and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Bowl Games. Alabama comes into this game 0-4 ATS in their last four National Championship Games and they have almost always struggle to win this game big. I think all the talk about Fields and Ohio State missing players is a bunch of crap because of how good this coaching staff is at working with what they have. This should be a tremendous game and the Buckeyes will win this on a late turnover to become National Champions for the first time since 2015. Long time coming.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 9-1 Straight Up in their last 10 games as an Underdog dating back to 2012.
Ohio State 34, Alabama 31
:toast:
Taken from one of his previous posts: EXPLANATION(Short): My lines are actual lines. Compare them with the actual game line and the play should be pretty evident. If there is a consistent differential across the board of 5+ on the Suggested Lines then it's a fade play and we go the other way. It happened about 8-9 times this year and I think almost every single one of them won. Otherwise it's a play as listed.
Mr. Flava: I thought your suggested lines indicated Bama, so that's what I bet. Now when I loose I'll have to tell my 12 children that bad Mr. Flava made daddy loose all his money. (just kidden) Best of Luck to you and thanks for all the selections and work that you have done all season long.
Go Bama (please god).
Go Bama (please god).
