SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +1.03 over SAN DIEGO
The Mets have won six of eight and will send out the year’s best find so far in Hisanori Takahashi (103 BPV, 5-5 PQS). Like most Japanese pitchers, Takahashi uses an assortment of off-speed stuff to keep hitters off-balance and he’s been near flawless so far. He’s made two starts against two high-powered offenses in NYY and PHI, shutting them both down for six IP and he’ll take a huge step down in class at this incredibly pitcher-friendly park. We’re not going to need much from the Mets offense to cash this ticket but it sure is better that the aforementioned Mets offense is seeing the ball pretty well these days. In fact, the Mets have scored 54 runs over its last 10 games and scored five or more in seven of those. They’re hitting a combined .305 over that stretch. All pitchers for the Padres are having great years, as they’re aided by Petco. Kevin Correia is among them but he’s allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts. His ERA on the year is 4.03 and his career ERA is 4.34, which isn’t bad but his numbers are skewed because of where he pitches at least half of his games. In four starts on the road, Correia’s ERA is 5.56 and it’s been close to that his whole career, which is an indication of how this guy is helped by this park. Correia is an ok pitcher and that’s all he’ll ever be. What we get here is the better offense, the better pitcher and most importantly, a price, albeit a small one. Play: NY Mets +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.17 over FLORIDA (1st 5 innings)
The Marlins have lost four of its last five and over that stretch they’ve batted .195 and scored nine lousy runs. This afternoon they’ll send out lefty Nate Robertson and laying anything with this guy is a huge and avoidable risk. Robertson (-2 BPV, 2-3-2-3-5 PQS) continues to defy reason, as he’s had only one good PQS start all season. His upside remains limited and luck dependent, as his GB% is lower this year than it’s been in any other and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .330 Robertson also walks too many batters and allows too many hits to have any prolonged success at this level. He stunk it up in Detroit and he’s going to do the same here because his skills are very limited. Chris Narveson (50 BPV, 3-4-3-3-0 PQS) is whiffing over eight batters a game as a starter and the Marlins rank third in the NL in strikeouts. That should bode well here for Narveson. He’s only allowed one jack over his last five starts and he catches the Marlins at precisely the right time. It’s also worth noting that Narveson is 4-0 on the road and appears to be more comfortable when the joint is pulling for him. With a toxic pen and because this choice is largely based on wagering against Robertson, the play here is the Brewers in the first half of the game. Play: Milwaukee +1.17 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
LOS ANGELES –1½ +1.12 over Arizona
Speaking of toxic bullpens, one need not look further than the pen of these Snakes. So far this season the D-Backs pen has an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.70. Over its last three games in San Fran over the weekend, that same pen posted a 2.17 WHIP and an ERA of 8.50. Each guy they run out there is worse than the next and that makes lifting the starter more difficult. Rodrigo Lopez will get yanked at some point, as he averages about 5.2 innings per start and has been getting progressively worse with each start. Lopez has allowed 15 hits and 10 runs in his last 11 frames and when he pitched at Chavez Ravine earlier this year, when he was going good, he was whacked to the tune of 11 hits and five runs in five innings. Andre Ethier is set to return for this game, putting the homer-prone Rodriguez (1.4 hr/9) at even more risk. Meanwhile Chad Billingsley is dealing it right now. He’s won four straight games, fanning 24 in 25 IP over this stretch. Billingsley is a quality starter that got off to a slow start but that is a distant memory right now. The fact is, Billingsley has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and he’ll face a D-Back team that has dropped seven in a row and has been outscored by a ridiculous 53-17 count over that stretch. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels –1.01 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals offense scored one run over the last two games in Boston. The Angels offense is on fire, having scored 31 runs over its last six games and that includes 14 over its last two games. Current Angel batters are hitting a robust .429 off Luke Hochevar with an OBP of .455. Earvin Santana is just 27-years-old and appears to be fully recovered from his injury troubled year in 2009. He looks more like the stellar version we saw in ’08 and when this guy is on he possesses some of the best stuff in the majors. Santana has whiffed 62 batters in 69 innings while walking just 21. In five May starts, Santana is 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA. When Santana has guys chasing his slider out of the zone he’s virtually unhittable and with the Royals likely pressing after scoring once in its last 18 frames, that slider will look like a pea. The Angels are heating up with four wins in five games and certainly have a great shot here at a very cheap price. Play: L.A. Angels –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).