Melniko Winter Thread

[Melniko]

Decided to post assorted cards throughout the winter meets in one thread - taking all wagering strategy out of the equation. A simple $2 WP on every race posted (with the occasional $4 WP on best bets) and will track results to see if I can get to end of February in the black. Starting off today with Keeneland full card as well as a few other races from other tracks.

KEENELAND
R1 - #3 Beyblader (6-1) will get the pace he needs.
R2 - #5 Stay Fabulous (9-2) Violence baby in the Ass man's barn.
R3 - #8 Feeling Happy (4-1) finally dropped to proper level.
R4 - #1 Prove Right (9-2) seventh start since June for the 2 year-old = experience edge.
R5 - #6 Ben Diesel (6-1) gets a break from Graded Stakes company.
R6 - #7 Redefined (6-1) working like a champ.
R7 - #5 Gear Jockey (8-1) nobody beats Golden Pal, but if...
R8 - #9 Happy Soul (6-1) wire to wire.
R9 - #10 Lost Ark (6-1) he's gonna be a monster. By the way, #4 is worth a look at a 50-1 morning line.
R10 - #6 Ivar (6-1) BEST BET
R11 - #6 Nashoba's Joy (5-1) gets the trifecta - blinkers, gelded, drop in class.

DELAWARE
R2 - #2 San Antone (6-1) back on a fast track.

GULFSTREAM
R8 - #10 Royal Quality (9-2) pedigree outclasses this field.
R9 - #8 Win Or Cellar (12-1) this apprentice can ride - the 10 pound gift will be the difference.

WOODBINE
R5 - #11 Liam's Awesome (15-1) much easier field - Stein stays.

$64 investment

 

[Michelangelo]

Black into the spring!

You can do it Niko. Tough challenge as it is.

 

[Melniko]

Got my picks mixed up when I posted Keeneland and accidently read off my Belmont sheet.

Race 6 I posted my Belmont selection. Should be #5 Gear Jockey.
Race 7 should be #9 Happy Soul
Race 8 should be #1 Vigilantes Way
Race 9-11 are correct.

 

[Melniko]

KEENELAND
R1 - #3 Beyblader (6-1) out
R2 - #5 Stay Fabulous (9-2) out
R3 - #8 Feeling Happy (4-1) winner $8.22 $4.04
R4 - #1 Prove Right (9-2) placed $5.68
R5 - #6 Ben Diesel (6-1) placed $7.14
R6 - #5 Gear Jockey (8-1) out
R7 - #9 Happy Soul (6-1) placed $6.02
R8 - #1 Vigilantes Way (12-1) out
R9 - #10 Lost Ark (6-1) out
R10 - #6 Ivar (6-1) placed $6.48 x 2
R11 - #6 Nashoba's Joy (5-1) out

DELAWARE
R2 - #2 San Antone (6-1) placed $2.80

GULFSTREAM
R8 - #10 Royal Quality (9-2) out
R9 - #8 Win Or Cellar (12-1) placed $5.80

WOODBINE
R5 - #11 Liam's Awesome (15-1) placed $12.60

Results for the day - 64/65.26 (+1.26)
Too many 2nd place finishes.

 

[Melniko]

10/9 - Chalk Sunday

KEENELAND
R1 - #3 Lady Emily (2-1) undefeated at the distance.
R2 - #6 Creative Strategy (10-1) dam is a perfect 3 for 3 with 2 year-old starters (with one stakes winner).
R3 - #6 Olliemeister (2-1) I'm ignoring the clunker at CD off the rest.
R4 - #5 Sarah Harper (2-1) Center Aisle ($1.5 million hunk of horseflesh) is just too inconsistent for me.
R5 - #5 Friendlypersuasion (2-1) more chalk, but he's still improving so what can you do...
R6 - #8 Mounsieur Coco (6-1) bullied the competition in Miami, we'll see how good he is.
R7 - #1 McEnroe (8-1) always give a second look at Justify firsters.
R8 - #12 Andthewinneris (10-1) has been working lights out since Saratoga.
R9 - #3 Letruska (5-2) I love this mare. Her best days may be over, but I'll root for her every time until she's retired.
R10 - #2 Militarist (6-1) best closing kick of the bunch.

AQUEDUCT
R2 - #2 Goldini (20-1) remember when Luzzi was a longshot machine?
R4 - #4 Psychic Income (20-1) he'll have the lead at some point, so why not?
R6 - #3 Inflation Nation (3-1) BEST BET
R8 - #6 Pixelate (8-1) He took my money at KD last month, one more chance.

Investing $60

 

[Jack1999]

Good Luck Mel.

 

[Michelangelo]

Good luck, Niko. No Telly for me today. Lots of NFL to keep me busy.

 

[Michelangelo]

Just turned on Twinspires in time to see the #12 in the eighth at Keenland win like a champ at 4-1. Nice pick.

 

[Melniko]

KEENELAND
R1 - #3 Lady Emily (2-1) out
R2 - #6 Creative Strategy (10-1) out
R3 - #6 Olliemeister (2-1) winner $4.74 $2.86
R4 - #5 Sarah Harper (2-1) 3rd
R5 - #5 Friendlypersuasion (2-1) winner $4.86 $2.82
R6 - #8 Mounsieur Coco (6-1) out
R7 - #1 McEnroe (8-1) out
R8 - #12 Andthewinneris (10-1) winner $10.18 $5.54
R9 - #3 Letruska (5-2) 4th
R10 - #2 Militarist (6-1) 4th

AQUEDUCT
R2 - #2 Goldini (20-1) out
R4 - #4 Psychic Income (20-1) out
R6 - #3 Inflation Nation (3-1) 4th
R8 - #6 Pixelate (8-1) placed $7.20

60/38.20
running total - 124/103.46 (-20.54)

 

[Melniko]

10/10 - Monday

FINGER LAKES
R5 - #7 Busted Credit (8-1) Best Bet
R7 - #7 My Boy Tate (3-1) should win for fun.

SANTA ANITA
R1 - #3 Diamonds Danzig (10-1) blinkers is the key.
R3 - #4 Albayaader (6-1) just missed in last.

THISTLEDOWN
R6 - #10 Big Ohio (9-2) only worry is the post position.

investing $24

 

[Bruins4Life]

Tons of scratches at Finger Lakes.
Rain?

 

[Michelangelo]

Best Bet Busted Credit wires the field at 13-1!!!!! What a best bet!!!

 

[Michelangelo]

Best Bet Busted Credit wires the field at 13-1!!!!! What a best bet!!!

Looks like the horse may have gone off at 6-1. Still super!

 

[Melniko]

Looks like the horse may have gone off at 6-1. Still super!

Thanks, Mich, just got home so I didn't see the race. Love the results, though!

 

[Melniko]

10/10 - Monday

FINGER LAKES
R5 - #7 Busted Credit (8-1) winner $14.20 $5.00
R7 - #7 My Boy Tate (3-1) placed $2.20

SANTA ANITA
R1 - #3 Diamonds Danzig (10-1) out
R3 - #4 Albayaader (6-1) 4th, rough trip

THISTLEDOWN
R6 - #10 Big Ohio (9-2) winner $4.20 $2.20

24/47.00
running total - 148/150.46 (+2.46)

 

[Melniko]

10/11 TUESDAY

THISTLEDOWN
R1 - #7 Roscoe P Coltrane (7-2) should make the lead.
R2 - #1 Opulent Ways (8-1) finally stretching out.
R3 - #5 Flag Raiser (10-1) dam has great stats w/ babies.
R4 - #4 Opulent (9-2) back on a fast track.
R5 - #1 Playing For Keeps (5-2) from stakes to msw.
R6 - #4 Ever Wonder (9-5) obvious class of field.
R7 - #4 Sarah Jane (9-2) Best Bet
R8 - #6 Flying Guillotine (8-1) toss the muddy route.

investing $36.00

 

[Melniko]

10/11 TUESDAY

THISTLEDOWN
R1 - #7 Roscoe P Coltrane (7-2) winner $3.80 $2.40
R2 - #1 Opulent Ways (8-1) winner $4.40 $4.40
R3 - #5 Flag Raiser (10-1) 4th
R4 - #4 Opulent (9-2) out
R5 - #1 Playing For Keeps (5-2) placed $3.40
R6 - #4 Ever Wonder (9-5) winner $2.80 $2.10
R7 - #4 Sarah Jane (9-2) out
R8 - #6 Flying Guillotine (8-1) out

36/23.30
running total - 184/173.76 (-10.24)

 

[yesyes]

Great job brother .I love the layout .

 

[Melniko]

Great job brother .I love the layout .

Thanks, YY, could get ugly - we'll see.
I feel like I'm pretty good at handicapping a race and spotting value, but I'm terrible at wagering. So this exercise will either reinforce that theory or prove to myself that I'm full of crap.

 

[yesyes]

Thanks, YY, could get ugly - we'll see.
I feel like I'm pretty good at handicapping a race and spotting value, but I'm terrible at wagering. So this exercise will either reinforce that theory or prove to myself that I'm full of crap.

No no, definitely not full of crap. You were very effective with the Kiwi ? thread and I believe this one will be much the same . As long as you stay within the take , or hopefully above it, your gold . Will be watching with interest as all your horses are well meant and you come up with solid picks. Wishing you the best as always .