Cleveland had a lot of blunders to in OT
With the NFL overtime rules the team that gets the ball first needs to put a real premium on getting first downs.
Because all the 2nd team has to do is kick a field goal and the game is over.
If I were a head coach and my team got the ball first I would go for it on 4th down and 2 or less virtually every single time no matter what the field position.
4th and 1 at your own 11 you should go for it on 4th down if you get the ball first in overtime 100% of the time.
With the NFL overtime rules the team that gets the ball first needs to put a real premium on getting first downs.
Because all the 2nd team has to do is kick a field goal and the game is over.
If I were a head coach and my team got the ball first I would go for it on 4th down and 2 or less virtually every single time no matter what the field position.
4th and 1 at your own 11 you should go for it on 4th down if you get the ball first in overtime 100% of the time.
WTF? think I was in the wrong thread, sorry
If Nagy didn't open up the offense and running failed, he would have been accused of being too conservative. It's so easy to call a play after the play.
I thought there were a few bad coaching decisions. GB calling a timeout with 2:04 on the clock is silly. He saved 4 seconds, when he had to potential to save a lot more time after the two minute warning, even on offense. It also gave Chicago a chance to go play action and be more aggressive on the next play because the clock was stopping no matter what, but the Bears didn't take advantage of that mistake.
I think I may have gone for it on 4th down, try to win the game right there. Kicking a FG was the easy conservative thing to do, and it's the same type of decision that dooms teams when playing Brady and the Patriots. I think Belichick goes for it against a red hot Rogers in that spot.
I also think I might try to let GB score at the end. Making tackles didn't extend the game, there was two seconds left on 4th down. Maybe a running back makes a stupid decision and tries to score, especially if he wasn't told to go down in the huddle. How many stupid decisions have you seen NFL players make? Look at Matthews decision on 4th down last night. Chances are that strategy fails too, the Bears were not in a very good spot at that time. It doom vs gloom
In his first game as a head coach, Nagy looked like a lot like an Andy Reid season rolled into one game. The Bears got off to an incredibly hot start on offense, overwhelming the Packers with motion and looks they hadn't seen from the Bears in preseason. Chip Kelly ran the Emory and Henry offense for snaps in the NFL and split his tackles out, but the Packers weren't expecting to see left tackle Charles Leno lining up on the right side in trips with two other receivers. Throw in Khalil Mack's otherworldly first half and the Bears seemed like surefire locks to win at halftime in Lambeau.
Well, you saw what happened next. Aaron Rodgers took over, the pass rush slowed down, and the Bears' secondary was exposed. Kyle Fuller was burned for a long touchdown by Geronimo Allison and later dropped a would-be interception that would have sealed the game. Prince Amukamara was beaten repeatedly by Davante Adams, who scored the second touchdown of the half. Rodgers finished the stunning 24-23 comeback win by finding Randall Cobb, who ran away from Eddie Jackson and sprinted upfield for a 75-yard touchdown.
Nagy contributed to the problems with some questionable decision-making on Chicago's last fourth-quarter drive with the lead. Reid has been criticized for throwing the ball and stopping the clock in years past, and when the Chiefs stopped running the ball during the second half of last season's playoff loss to the Titans, it was odd to see Reid take the blame while the team's new playcaller, Nagy, mostly avoided public scrutiny.
That won't be the case anymore, as Nagy played his way into the Packers' hands late in the game. With the Bears running the ball successfully on a drive that had already taken six full minutes off of the clock, Chicago faced a third-and-1 on the Green Bay 14-yard line with 2:47 to go and the Packers out of timeouts. A first down would have possibly allowed the Bears to run the clock down to 35 seconds or so before kicking a field goal (or picking up another first down to seal the game). Running the ball would have allowed the Bears, at the bare minimum, to take the clock near the two-minute warning.
Instead, Nagy threw the ball on third-and-1 on a pick play designed to get Anthony Miller open on a drag route and Tarik Cohen open downfield for a possible touchdown. Cohen somehow found a huge mismatch against 261-pound linebacker Reggie Gilbert, but Mitchell Trubisky tried to make the shorter pass and threw the ball too hard to Miller, whose drag route was sloppy and came way too shallow to take advantage of the picks while staying close to the first-down marker. Even if Trubisky had completed the pass, Miller would have struggled to get a first down or even make it back to the line of scrimmage.
What compounded the mistake on third-and-1, though, was the decision to kick on fourth-and-1. Coaches like to kick a field goal up three points late in games to force the opposing team to try to score a touchdown, but it has the strange habit of accidentally optimizing coaching behavior. When a team is down three points late in a game, its coaches will often set the target of kicking a field goal to extend the game and base their decision-making around getting in field goal range. This goes double for a conservative coach like Mike McCarthy.
When you go up six points, though, coaches have no choice but to empty the well and score a touchdown. I don't think it made a huge difference here because Cobb took an 11-yard pass to the house, but the Bears would have been in the ascendancy if they had gone for it in lieu of attempting a 32-yard field goal to make it a six-point lead, given their chances of success. Brian Burke's model suggests that the Bears should have gone for it if they thought they could convert fourth-and-short 19 percent of the time against the Packers in that situation.
Nagy will learn. There are worse fates than living up to Reid, who has built a career out of being the honor roll version of Jeff Fisher in winning 10 games like clockwork every season. Doug Pederson has proved that coaches can learn from Reid and still get aggressive, and the Bears looked about as terrifying as any team in football during the first half. They also blew a 17-point halftime lead, which teams rode to a 53-5 record over the past five seasons. This one will sting.
Well, you saw what happened next. Aaron Rodgers took over, the pass rush slowed down, and the Bears' secondary was exposed. Kyle Fuller was burned for a long touchdown by Geronimo Allison and later dropped a would-be interception that would have sealed the game. Prince Amukamara was beaten repeatedly by Davante Adams, who scored the second touchdown of the half. Rodgers finished the stunning 24-23 comeback win by finding Randall Cobb, who ran away from Eddie Jackson and sprinted upfield for a 75-yard touchdown.
Nagy contributed to the problems with some questionable decision-making on Chicago's last fourth-quarter drive with the lead. Reid has been criticized for throwing the ball and stopping the clock in years past, and when the Chiefs stopped running the ball during the second half of last season's playoff loss to the Titans, it was odd to see Reid take the blame while the team's new playcaller, Nagy, mostly avoided public scrutiny.
That won't be the case anymore, as Nagy played his way into the Packers' hands late in the game. With the Bears running the ball successfully on a drive that had already taken six full minutes off of the clock, Chicago faced a third-and-1 on the Green Bay 14-yard line with 2:47 to go and the Packers out of timeouts. A first down would have possibly allowed the Bears to run the clock down to 35 seconds or so before kicking a field goal (or picking up another first down to seal the game). Running the ball would have allowed the Bears, at the bare minimum, to take the clock near the two-minute warning.
Instead, Nagy threw the ball on third-and-1 on a pick play designed to get Anthony Miller open on a drag route and Tarik Cohen open downfield for a possible touchdown. Cohen somehow found a huge mismatch against 261-pound linebacker Reggie Gilbert, but Mitchell Trubisky tried to make the shorter pass and threw the ball too hard to Miller, whose drag route was sloppy and came way too shallow to take advantage of the picks while staying close to the first-down marker. Even if Trubisky had completed the pass, Miller would have struggled to get a first down or even make it back to the line of scrimmage.
What compounded the mistake on third-and-1, though, was the decision to kick on fourth-and-1. Coaches like to kick a field goal up three points late in games to force the opposing team to try to score a touchdown, but it has the strange habit of accidentally optimizing coaching behavior. When a team is down three points late in a game, its coaches will often set the target of kicking a field goal to extend the game and base their decision-making around getting in field goal range. This goes double for a conservative coach like Mike McCarthy.
When you go up six points, though, coaches have no choice but to empty the well and score a touchdown. I don't think it made a huge difference here because Cobb took an 11-yard pass to the house, but the Bears would have been in the ascendancy if they had gone for it in lieu of attempting a 32-yard field goal to make it a six-point lead, given their chances of success. Brian Burke's model suggests that the Bears should have gone for it if they thought they could convert fourth-and-short 19 percent of the time against the Packers in that situation.
Nagy will learn. There are worse fates than living up to Reid, who has built a career out of being the honor roll version of Jeff Fisher in winning 10 games like clockwork every season. Doug Pederson has proved that coaches can learn from Reid and still get aggressive, and the Bears looked about as terrifying as any team in football during the first half. They also blew a 17-point halftime lead, which teams rode to a 53-5 record over the past five seasons. This one will sting.
I started the thread because of the 4th and 1 call which was objectively terrible. Didn't see the 1st 3 quarters of the game and I do think when a coach blows something like that, people tend to lump every other subjective decision in the game with it. Like you said, it's easier to call plays after they happen.
But that was an awful decision vs Aaron Rodgers on the road after he drove for 2 TD's like it was nothing. It's not even a good decision vs an above average team, but in that spot it was terrible.
On the bright side, some of the luster has worn off the Bears because of that choke job and they're gonna kill Seattle next week.
3rd and 1 with 2:47 left and Green Bay out of Timeouts and you call a pass play. 
hno:hno:hno:
Anyone watching at home just knew when they trotted out the FG unit that Rodgers was going to drive the Packers down the field to cap the legendary comeback. Sometimes it makes you wonder if these coaches have too much on their plate when they make some bonehead blunders.
hno:hno:hno: Anyone watching at home just knew when they trotted out the FG unit that Rodgers was going to drive the Packers down the field to cap the legendary comeback. Sometimes it makes you wonder if these coaches have too much on their plate when they make some bonehead blunders.
Agreed, horrible decision. Bad start to his coaching career. Did he not see what Rodgers did to Jason Garret two years in a row when he gave Rodgers the ball back. Never, never give the ball back to Rodgers or Brady with a chance to win the game. Anybody else but those two you kick the FG but not those two!
Plus you run for it on 3rd down and 4th you give the Pack the ball only down by 3 if you do not get one yard. At that point, if the Pack gets inside the Bears 40, they are most likely going to kick a FG on 4th down and Mcarthy is going to play it conservative. Good chance the Bears get the ball back with a little time after a Pack FG, the Pack miss a FG or you go for OT. You go up by 6, Mcarthy/Rodgers have no choice but to be aggressive and go for it on 4th down and a TD for the win. They have no other options because you just backed them into a corner. Do not Back Brady or Rodgers into a corner, it usually does not end well.
Maybe throw Brees in the mix and maybe a couple of others who can go down the field with four downs.. Your point is valid, but most coaches will take being up by six and having to drive the field for the other QB to score a TD. It's the norm, and if it blows up on them (like last night), they are not run out of town about it. Now if the Bears go for it on 3rd and 4th down and fail, and GB drives the field and scores a TD, Nagy is getting even more heat today. I agree with Willie, I am sure Belichick would have gone for it, look no further than the Pats going for it on 4th down against the Colts in their own territory in the AFC Championship game a few years ago. As a matter of fact, I think Houston got burned by this exact conservatism a couple years back in Foxboro. After saying all of this, I agree with you, the Bears should have gone for it. Giving a guy like Rodgers 4 downs, not 3 is almost impossible to stop, as with Brady. You notice how Trubisky also had 4 downs, just to get in to field goal range, and he couldn't do squat. Bottom line, the Bears should have run on 3rd and 1, possibly get the first down and all this second guessing isn't happening.
This isn't even true. It's 2018 and optimal game theory as it pertains to NFL decisions on 4th down is far more understood now than it was when Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 @ Indy.
Even if you get criticized, who cares?
If being criticized by dumb people is an impediment to you making the correct decision then you shouldn't be an NFL coach.
He's just a fish.
You know who knows when to go for it on 4th down and when not to? Doug Pederson. And he's got a ring. Scared money doesn't make money.
