Massive Soccer Project (MSP) Thread

[eddieshore]

The Czech Gambrinus Liga isn't bad either for draws...

 

[Dickhertz+]

Very nice work so far Sekrah! Quick question for you. I get the jist of what it is you are doing but how do you come up with the percentages. EX: (48%, 38%, 14%) ?

 

[Sekrah]

Dickhertz, thats the result of my math calculations when all data is entered. I have written a scrap program in VB to handle the system.

 

[Sekrah]

Monday Results
ENGP - Liverpool-West Ham, Draw +400, 1 unit, WIN +4.00
ENGP - Reading-Coventry, Coventry/Draw +122, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00

Yesterday: 1-1 (+2.00 units)
Season: 15-28 (+21.30 units)

 

[Sekrah]

I will begin classifying the bets that include draws with +0.5.


England - League Two
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 2ND
Luton Town v Afc Bournemouth, 33%, 35%, 32%, Play: Bournemouth +0.5 -143, 1 UNIT
Wycombe Wanderers v Macclesfield Town, 46%, 40%, 14%, Play: Draw +255, 2 UNIT

 

[kaynem]

how do you determine the unit size sekrah?

 

[rolltide]

kanynem, it's safe to assume unit size is based on the differential b/w odds and percentage. example from today's matches:

wycombe 40% draw = odds of +155 and he is betting odds of +255 (100 pt differential). = bigger bet

Bournemouth +1/2 67% (draw + away) = -200 and he has -143 (57 pt differential) = smaller bet

 

[kaynem]

ah get it. thanks.

 

[Icemantbi]

Wycombe and Macclesfield draw is +528!

 

[rolltide]

Wycombe and Macclesfield draw is +528!

you are looking at away win. highest price in the world for draw is +275
http://tip-ex.com/ocpage.php?type=ochtml&g=gi_4038&d=2008-12-02 18:00:01|2008-12-09 18:00:01&ot=0

 

[Sekrah]

how do you determine the unit size sekrah?

kaynem.. The percentage of our edge.

6-10% edge = 1 unit.
10-15% edge = 2 unit.
15%+ edge = 3 unit.

-143 is 58.8%. The combined probability of Bournemouth winning (32%) and the draw (35%) is 67%. 8.2% edge. 1 unit play.

+255 is 28.1%. The Wycombe/Maccelsfield Draw probability is 40%. 11.9% edge. 2 unit play.


Iceman, what book has +528 for the draw?!

 

[Sekrah]

Tuesday Results
ENG2 - Luton-Bournemouth, Bournemouth +0.5 -143, 1 unit, WIN +1.00
ENG2 - Wycombe-Macclesfield, Draw +255, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00

Tuesday: 1-1 (-1.00 units)
Season: 16-29 (+20.30 units)
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Ain't gonna win em all. No games on the schedule until Friday. See ya then. I have no work this weekend. I should be able to get Saturday's card posted no later than Friday afternoon/early evening.

 

[Jetplane]

Timeout... not doubting your capping or anything... but how are u 16-29 and +units?

 

[Sekrah]

Timeout... not doubting your capping or anything... but how are u 16-29 and +units?

The average winning bet is +223. If that is the average winner, you only need to hit 31% to break even on flat units. We'll be hitting at a 35%+ clip all year and rake it in!

 

[Sekrah]

For those that are following this thread..

I am working on a similar model for college hoops. I'm doing up some games right now.. I haven't done any real backtesting on it. It's just in beta, but picks for tonight will be posted in the college hoops forum in about an hour or so.

 

[Sekrah]

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Have more than a day before the kickoff of these. Just wanted to get them out there early.

Argentina - Primera
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5TH
Ca Banfield v Argentinos Juniors, 34%, 46%, 20%, Play: Draw +220, 2 UNIT

Germany - Bundesliga
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5TH
Fc Bayern MÜnchen v Tsg Hoffenheim, 46%, 30%, 24%, Play: Hoffenheim +0.5 +117, 1 UNIT



Saturday's Card will be posted Friday late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

[bailey]

Sekrah I have a line at Matchbook Bayern to win NO +141.If I do the calculation +141 which is 41.5% vs 54%draw and away for Hoffenheim.So this is 12.5 advantage for a 2 unit play.Is that correct?

 

[Sekrah]

Sekrah I have a line at Matchbook Bayern to win NO +141.If I do the calculation +141 which is 41.5% vs 54%draw and away for Hoffenheim.So this is 12.5 advantage for a 2 unit play.Is that correct?

Yes.. Great line you got there.. That would be a 2 unit play. I have too much trouble getting money onto Matchbook from the US.hno:

 

[Sekrah]

I'm about freaking sick of these late goals burying us.

Atleast 4 or 5 have buried us. NONE have helped us from what I can remember.

 

[Martinga]

I'm about freaking sick of these late goals burying us.

Atleast 4 or 5 have buried us. NONE have helped us from what I can remember.

I KNOWWWWWWWWWWW
Man, i've been following on most of your bets, and without a doubt you (and thanks to you, me) are doing quite good.

These late goals are horrible (i mean bayern scoring one on min 91 ish when the ref added 2 mins extra time)
Anyways, keep posting your predictions, as i really appreciate them

Also, let me know when you post your bball lines too
best of luck