Massive Soccer Project (MSP) Thread

[Sekrah]

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Saturday Results
ARG1 - Huracan-San Lorezn, Huracan +205, 2 unit, VOID (Susp.)
ENGP - Aston Villa-Fulham, Draw +245, 3 unit, WIN +7.35
ENGP - Stoke City-Hull City, Stoke City +130, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
ENGP - Wigan-West Brom, Draw +235, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
ENGC - Wolverhampton-Birmingham, Draw +225, 3 unit, WIN +6.75
ENGC - Burnley-Derby, Draw +220, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
ENGC - Charlton-Southampton, Draw +225, 1 unit, WIN +2.25
ENGC - Crystal Palace-QPR, Draw +225, 2 unit, WIN +4.50
ENGC - Nottingham Forest-Barnsely, Nott Forest +125, 1 unit, WIN 1.25
ENGC - Plymouth-Blackpool, Draw +230, 3 unit, LOSS -3.00
ENGC - Preston NE-Bristol City, Draw +225, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
ENG1 - Walsall-Swindon, Draw +225, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
FRA1 - Le Havre-Nantes, Nantes +225, 1 unit, WIN +2.25
FRA1 - Nice-Grenoble, Nice -143, 2 unit, VOID (Ppd.)
FRA1 - Lyon-Valenciennes, Draw +400, 1 unit, WIN +4.00
FRA1 - Lille-Lorient, Lorient +450, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
FRA1 - Sochaux-Bordeaux, Draw +200, 2 unit, WIN +4.00
GER1 - Leverkusen-Bayern, Leverkusen +150, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
GER1 - Hannover-Karlsruher, Draw +235, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
ITAA - Catania-Lecce, Catania -125, 1 unit, LOSS -1.25
ITAA - Juventus-Reggina, Reggina +925, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
NET1 - Den Haag-Twente, Draw +230, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
NET1 - Heracles-Willem, Draw +240, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
SCOP - Celtic-Inverness, Draw +550, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
SCOP - Falkirk-Hibernian, Draw +220, 2 unit, WIN +4.40
SPA1 - Sevilla-Barcelona, Draw +225, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00


Yesterday: 9-15 (+14.50 units)
Season: 9-17 (+12.50 units)


Sunday Plays coming up!..

Here's a quick one as this one kicks off in about 10 minutes... Rest are coming up within the next half-hour.

England - League Championship

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Swansea City v Cardiff City, 25%, 42%, 33%, Play: Draw +220, 2 UNIT

 

[Sekrah]

I'm going to begin playing combo plays. They are available at my primary book (Sportsinteraction) and a few other books out there. First one will be in the Netherland Eredivisie match between Nec Nijmegen and Fc Volendam.. Using this yesterday I believe we would of turned the Lille-Lorient match into a winner for us.



Argentina - Primera Division
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Argentinos Juniors v Rosario Central, 48%, 16%, 36%, Play: Rosario +335, 2 UNIT
Boca Juniors v Racing Club, 52%, 36%, 12%, Play: Draw +265, 1 UNIT


English Premiership
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Manchester City v Manchester United, 38%, 14%, 48%, Play: Man City +295, 2 UNIT
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Fc, 38%, 46%, 16%, Play: Draw +225, 3 UNIT


France - Ligue 1
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Fc Toulouse v Olympique Marseille, 40%, 20%, 40%, Play: Toulouse +200, 1 UNIT


German Bundesliga.1
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Borussia Dortmund v Vfl Wolfsburg, 32%, 28%, 40%, Play: Wolfsburg +195, 1 UNIT
Vfl Bochum v Hamburger Sv, 40%, 48%, 12%, Play: Draw +225, 3 UNIT


Italy - Serie A
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Ac Siena v Fc Torino, 58%, 32%, 10%, Play:Siena -111, 1 UNIT
Inter Milano v Ssc Napoli, 56%, 22%, 22%, Play: Napoli +550, 1 UNIT
Udinese Calcio v Chievo Verona, 52%, 39%, 9%, Play: Draw +305, 3 UNIT
Us Palermo v Ac Milan, 58%, 20%, 22%, Play: Palermo +275, 3 UNIT


Netherlands - Eredivisie
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Nec Nijmegen v Fc Volendam, 42%, 32%, 26%, Play: Volendam/Draw +218, 3 UNIT
Sparta Rotterdam v Nac Breda, 40%, 16%, 44%, Play: Sparta +240, 2 UNIT


Spain - La Liga
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH
Cf Malaga v Ca Osasuna, 43%, 39%, 18%, Play: Draw +225, 1 UNIT




Let's do this again!

 

[Sekrah]

This already looks gold! The draws are hitting good and the ones that aren't are damn close.

What profit did the backtesting results produce in units?

I do not know the backtesting results in units. What I was excited about was that over a 500+ match testing sample, my percentages that I was giving to these games vs the actual results were very much in line. I.e. For the games where I had Draws listed as a 40-45% probability, they were coming in at 41%. There was tremendous accuracy down through the board. There certaintly would of been a large unit profit over that sample had I play the appropriate edges over bad lines


Including today's results, right now we're 13-25, 34% with a 14.45 unit profit over 42 matches. Our average probability on our plays so far is 38%. We're underacheiving by 4% right now, which is really only 2 matches with this ridiculously small sample, and I gotta tell you, we got buried by more than a fair share of our beats this weekend I feel.. We're underachieving and we're up over 14 units!!!! Over the long run, we will be in line with our probabilities (hopefully), and make a lot of coin!



Things are rolling good right now.

 

[Sekrah]

If anybody wants any additional leagues added to the rotation, please let me know.

As of right now we have:

Argentina Primera
England Premier
England Championship
England League 1
England League 2
France Ligue 1
German Bundesliga
Italy Serie A
Netherlands Eredivisie
Scottish Premier
Spain La Liga


The only other one missing from here that will be part of the rotation will be USA MLS when the season kicks back up in the spring.

If there are any others, please let me know and I'll try to squeeze it in.

 

[Sekrah]

PALERMO GOAL!! 1-0! 50th minute! Let's get this big boy!

 

[Sekrah]

THERE'S TWO!!! POW! Palermo 2-0, 60th minute!

 

[Sekrah]

Palermo 3-0, 80th minute.. Put this sucker to bed Benedict!

ope:

 

[Ghuman]

Damn it looks like you're on to something here Sekrah. Palermo haven't just sneaked a win, they've smashed Milan (who have looked pretty good lately).

Don't know what the hell you're basing your picks on, buts its good!

Might start following you soon.

 

[Ghuman]

If anybody wants any additional leagues added to the rotation, please let me know.

As of right now we have:

Argentina Primera
England Premier
England Championship
England League 1
England League 2
France Ligue 1
German Bundesliga
Italy Serie A
Netherlands Eredivisie
Scottish Premier
Spain La Liga


The only other one missing from here that will be part of the rotation will be USA MLS when the season kicks back up in the spring.

If there are any others, please let me know and I'll try to squeeze it in.

You've got all the main leagues and the best outside those.

One league i can think of that you can include is the Portugese League. But yeh that's it. Any more and it might be too much.

 

[Sekrah]

Looks like we're heading for a +21-23 unit opening weekend. I'll calculate today's results when I get home from work tomorrow morning.

 

[Sekrah]

Sunday Results
ARG1 - Argentinos-Rosario, Rosario +335, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
ARG1 - Boca Juniors-Racing, Draw +265, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
ENGP - Man City-Man United, Man City +295, 2 unit, LOSS -2.00
ENGP - Tottenham-Everton, Draw +225, 3 unit, LOSS -3.00
ENGC - Swansea-Cardiff, Draw +220, 2 unit, WIN +4.40
FRA1 - Toulouse-Marseille, Toulouse +200, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
GER1 - Dortmund-Wolfsburg, Wolfsburg +195, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
GER1 - Bochum-Hamburg, Draw +225, 3 unit, WIN +6.75
ITAA - Siena-Torino, Siena -111, 1 unit, WIN +1.00
ITAA - Inter-Napoli, Napoli +550, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00
ITAA - Udinese-Chievo, Draw +305, LOSS -3.00
ITAA - Palermo-AC Milan, Palermo +275, 3 unit, WIN +8.25
NET1 - Nijmegen-Volendam, Volendam/Draw +218, 3 unit, LOSS -3.00
NET1 - Sparta-Nac Breda, Sparta +220, 2 unit, WIN +4.40
SPA1 - Malaga-Osasuna, Draw +225, 1 unit, LOSS -1.00

Yesterday: 5-10 (+6.80 units)
Season: 14-27 (+19.30 units)

 

[Sekrah]

England - Premiership
MONDAY, DECEMBER 1ST
Liverpool Fc v West Ham United, 63%, 28%, 9%, Play: Draw +400, 1 UNIT


England - League Championship
MONDAY, DECEMBER 1ST
Reading Fc v Coventry City, 44%, 31%, 25%, Play: Coventry/Draw +122, 2 UNIT

 

[Icemantbi]

Just stumbled on this thread. Sounds like you are on to something here Sekrah. What's great about this is that you are getting big payouts on each hit, so you can hit 35% or so and still make a profit. I'm going to keep an eye on this, but I might have to start taling this system.

BTW, I think the tie in the 'Pool game is a great value bet, 'Pool tied Fulham 0-0 not too long ago. I like that bet.

 

[June_Jones]

l'pool with no torres = west ham +1.5 $$$

 

[Sekrah]

One league i can think of that you can include is the Portugese League. But yeh that's it.

I'll see if I can get the Portugese Leaue thrown into the rotation for next weekend.

Any more and it might be too much.

This is the 2nd time I've seen this in this thread. It is impossible to have too many games if you want to maximize profit. If you can spot a mathematical edge somewhere, PLAY IT! Playing 20 plays a week vs 5 plays a week will be the difference between a 40+ unit season and a 10+ unit season. If we can find 40 plays/week with edges, it's a +80 unit season! If we can find 80 plays/week, it's 160+ unit season!

More Plays = More Profit!

 

[cut-paste-hero]

Nice hit on the Liverpool tie.

Keep up the good work

:toast:

 

[June_Jones]

great hit sekrah. look forward to your future plays

 

[Icemantbi]

Wow Sekrah! Great call on the Liverpool/West Ham draw!

I'm a believe, gonna start tailing this system of yours. I'm amazed by the results.

 

[ThreeFreeThrows]

Thanks Sekrah,

I rode the draw as well, too bad my shit credit book only had +360, but still got it in. Thanks I was sweating the last 10 mins all the way to the window.

Thanks again!!!

 

[eddieshore]

If you like draws I'd give a look at both Japan's leagues and the second divisions of France and Holand and while I am at it why not the National France league.

:toast: