Markie Mark's Soccer Picks

[MarkieMark+]

YESTERDAY: 3-2-0 (+2.80 UNITS)
2005 TOTAL: 275-213-6 (56.4%) +72.13 UNITS
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TO DATE: 479-361-10 (57.0%) +132.05 UNITS

Colombia let us down yesterday. It looks like Mexico could be in the drivers seat to repeat as Gold Cup Champions.

TODAY'S PICKS

SWEDEN ALLSVENSKAN

Sundsvall vs. Djurgarden; DRAW +270 (185/500) Olympic

There is a saying in soccer and I think it applies to this game, "THE BALL IS ROUND"
With Djurgarden's excellent form and strength against Sundsvall's poor form and long list of injuries, this game seems like a no brainer and I admit, I had Djurgarden as a heavy lean when I saw them at -110 last night, especially when you consider that Djurgarden have won the last 6 games between these teams. But why were Djurgarden only at -110 with so much in their favor? Djurgarden should be at least -140 to -150 as the AWAY team, in my opinion, under these conditions. This troubled me as I have seen these type of situations many times before where a big favorite has some tempting odds on offer only to have the game end up as a DRAW and the bookies make a killing. Even though Sundsvall are playing at home, where they have beaten some of the better teams in the Allsvenskan this season (3-1 over ELFSBORG, 2-0 over MALMO, 2-1 over HAMMARBY), they are fighting to stay out of relegation with a depleted squad and a DRAW against the top team would be a great result. Defense may be the only thing Sundsvall has on their mind and with 10 men behind the ball along with the absence of Djurgarden's top goal-scorer, a 0-0 Final is possible.
Another X-factor for Djurgarden is that Sundsvall's home ground is Artifical Turf. The home team is used to playing on this surface and Djurgarden is not, which could be an advantage to Sundsvall. Djurgarden is a good bet and I might put some money on them to WIN (as insurance) along with this DRAW bet, but my gut is telling me that this one ends 0-0 or 1-1.

 

[AFLGuru]

Slight problem with this one... Again, this is just me playing with some statistics, and you see how well that one worked last night, proving that the game of soccer is very wacky. Scoreless for about 70 minutes worth of game time and then not one, but TWO strikes in the 90th minute... and Panama scoring twice for the first time in forever... rough... anyway, do you know how long Sundsvall has had these players out for? Makes a difference when viewing these stats...

But in Sundsvall's last 10 matches, they've only pitched one clean sheet. On the same token, Djurgarden has only been shut out once this season and is averaging over 2 a game this year, and have scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 matches. But yes, I can agree that missing that striker could be VERY key today for Djurgarden, as he has scored in 7 of those 10 games... with him out of the lineup, goals COULD be harder to come by than usual. But something surely has to be said for the team around him, as no player can create this many goals by himself. Even when Thierry Henry ripped it apart in the Premiership, he had a massive team around him that when undefeated in the league. So good teams have good strikers, but that doesn't keep them from being good teams.

Unless there's a bit of a fix in this one, I don't know how Sundsvall can possibly win, looking at the stats if these players haven't been out very long. But if the majority of them have, remember that this is the same team that knocked off both Hammabary and 3rd place Malmo at home in recent form. So with this being the first game for Djurgarden without their best striker who has scored over half of their goals, I can see where bookies think this is a problem with home form against solid teams of Sundsvall. I won't be playing this game, but a 1-1 draw does seem a lot more likely than +270...

 

[Aquiles]

Draw pick it´s a good job MM, Congrats the pick won!

 

[THEJET]

Mark, your write-up was so on the money that it's scary! That was some great capping man. Loved the "THE BALL IS ROUND" quote! Again, great job on your HUGE day.


Jet.

 

[MarkieMark+]

SUNDSVALL 1 - 1 DJURGARDEN

The bookies set the trap with Djurgarden at -110 and hit it BIG today, but they didn't get any of my money.

MONDAY RESULTS: 1-0-0 (+5.00 UNITS)
2005 TOTAL: 276-213-6 (56.4%) +77.13 UNITS
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TO DATE: 480-361-10 (57.1%) +137.05 UNITS

 

[MarkieMark+]

Thanks Aquiles and Jet. Nice hit on the 2 TEAMER in the Superettan, Jet.

MM

 

[THEJET]

Mark, your head must have hit the ceiling when that ball went through in the 90th minute! I was watching it on big dish and when I saw that, I thought of you and your ear to ear smile! What was up with Djurgarden and all the yellow cards? Anyway, nice hit again and next time I'll think twice about fading you. Not that I was. Gotta get back to the tube, my equalizer FYLKIR is up at halftime 2-0!

Jet.

 

[Hustler982]

great job Mark! i tailed bc no baseball tonight and i need that action man! lol thanks for the $$

 

[MarkieMark+]

Thanks Hustler. I think I have another nice one for Tuesday.

MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

Tuesday, July 12

YESTERDAY: 1-0-0 (+5.00 UNITS)
2005 TOTAL: 276-213-6 (56.4%) +77.13 UNITS
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TOTAL TO DATE: 480-361-10 (57.1%) +137.05 UNITS

TODAY'S PICKS

AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA

SV SALZBURG (+0.5) -110 over Graz AK (330/300) Pinnacle
Salzburg have become the Chelsea of the Austrian Bundesliga. After a lower table finish at the end of last year Salzburg were bought by some VERY rich people and about 80% of the team was let go. The new owners spent the off-season throwing millions of Euros at new acquisitions and this team is now OVERFLOWING with quality players that have been taken from top flite leagues like the German Bundesliga, the Italian Serie A. Graz AK is still a good team but the additions that Salzburg have made instantly makes them the team to beat this year in Austria. One blow that Graz has suffered is that they lost their best player, Mario Tokic, to Austria Vienna. Tokic was their field general and his loss will affect Graz, no doubt about it.

I will have a couple more picks for today and they will be up later. I just wanted to get this pick on the board before the line changed too much - and it will!

MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

1 More Pick for Tuesday

ICELAND

Prottur vs. Akranes; DRAW +240 (166/400) Pinnacle

Like the game yesterday between Sundsval and Djurgarden in the Swedish Allsvenskan, the line for this game has a bit of an odor. At first glance, Akranes was a heavy lean but there is something that doesn't sit quite right with me about this line. Prottur are in last place and are in poor form, whereas Akranes are in good form and are coming off of an impressive 2-0 away victory at Reykjavik that is still very fresh in everybody's mind. Akranes have been made the favorite by the bookies (as they should) but they opened up at a VERY attractive +115. Akranes is being HAMMERED by the soccer punters out there and the bookies might be smiling BIG TIME when this one ends in a DRAW as I think this could be another trap. Something else that tipped me off to a potential DRAW is that Akranes plans to play with 5 mid-fielders and only 1 striker up front. This is a very defensive formation and sends the message that Akranes would be happy to only take 1 point from this game today.

Good Luck
MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

The Bookies win BIG, yet again, with AKRANES. But, yet again, they didn't get any of my money! The Iceland game turned my day around and put me in ++UNITS++ for the day.

Waiting to see how things shape up with Trinidad and Colombia. I might have a pick or two for tonight's remaining Gold Cup matches.

MM

 

[XANDER]

Excellent call on the Arkanes. You were all over it. Thanks for the winner.

 

[Aquiles]

Hi guys, it´s good to see that now we all go in the same direction.

 

[Hustler982]

good stuff yet again Mark

 

[MarkieMark+]

Thanks Guys! I just LOVE outsmarting the Bookies! I have one small play left for today from the 2005 Gold Cup.

CANADA (-0.5) -110 over Cuba (110/100) Pinnacle

Good Luck
MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

TUESDAY RESULTS: 2-1-0 (+1.70 UNITS)
2005 TOTAL: 278-214-6 (56.5%) +78.83 UNITS
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TOTAL TO DATE: 482-362-10 (57.1%) +138.75 UNITS

 

[MarkieMark+]

Wednesday, July 13

YESTERDAY: 2-1-0 (+1.70 UNITS)
2005 TOTAL: 278-214-6 (56.5%) +78.83 UNITS
2004 TOTAL: 204-148-4 (58.0%) +59.92 UNITS
OVERALL TOTAL TO DATE: 482-362-10 (57.1%) +138.75 UNITS

TODAY'S PICKS



SWEDISH CUP

GAIS +230 over Halmstad (130/300) Bet365
GAIS vs. Halmstad; DRAW +225 (133/300) Bet365

This line looks like another TRAP to me. The line for this game has been set up to attract as much money on Halmstad as possible, and from what I have read on some European forums, it's working. Halmstad opened at +110 and is VERY hard to resist for MANY since Halmstad is a higher division team, from the Allsvenskan, playing a lower division team. The bookies are looking to cash in when Halmstad fail to win and I agree with their opinion of this game. I think GAIS can WIN this game, or at least play to a DRAW. None of the sportsbooks that I normally use (Pinnacle, Olympic, Bet365 and William Hill) are offering a handicap on this game so I have decided to play it two ways. If either of the bets win, there will be a NET PROFIT of 1.7 UNITS and it will be counted as a WIN in my totals.



FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA

Tampere United vs. HJK Helsinki; DRAW +225 (100/225) Bet365
Tampere are the superior team and they are playing at home but there is a couple of things working against them today. Firstly, both of their regular forwards are out of the line-up with injuries and they are expected to play only 1 striker up front which means that this will probably be a low-scoring defensive game. Secondly, Tampere have an Intertoto Cup match against Lazio, in Rome, on the weekend. Tampere is placing alot of importance on Intertoto so I think they will try to keep as many players behind the ball as possible, collect their 1 point for the draw and then head off to Italy.



AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA

AUSTRIA VIENNA (-0.5) -115 over Admira (230/200) Pinnacle
RAPID VIENNA (-1.0) -110 over Sturm Graz (220/200) Pinnacle


Good Luck
MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

Starting the day off with a BANG, on a +225 DRAW WINNER in the game between Tampere United and HJK Helsinki.

MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

And now, a nice +230 WINNER rolls in with GAIS over Halmstad by a score of 2-1. After factoring in the Draw Bet, the Net Gain is +170.

MM