Phil Simms is the absolute worst game management color guy in the business . He always says stupid shit when it comes to game management . And he always says a team is dumb going for 2 down 15.
I'm usually pretty sharp when it comes to stuff like this. Normally just using analytical thinking helps me come to the correct conclusion on stuff like this without even having to do much number crunching .
But I believe I might have to retract my original comments I made when i started this thread.
Looking at all factors I have to say I was wrong about this.
I now say it was the correct call.
Numbers don't lie.
And even if this was the Cleveland brown instead of Seattle I would still say it's the right call.
As a matter of fact it would be even more the right call for a team like Cleveland then a good team . Even if Clevelands odds were only 30% to convert the 2 . The equity of completely shutting down a team like the pats going up by 9 would be worth more to a bad team then a good team.
If a team like Cleveland has a 30% chance of having a 100% chance of beating a team like the pats. The risk reward ratio favors the call to go for 2.
It would say the bigger the underdog you are the more the going for 2 makes sense up 7.
Kinda like poker. If you are the inferior player going against Phil Ivey .
It makes more sense for you to call a coin flip all in preflop then it would be if you were a better player with the ability and skill to wait for a better spot
But I believe I might have to retract my original comments I made when i started this thread.
Looking at all factors I have to say I was wrong about this.
I now say it was the correct call.
Numbers don't lie.
And even if this was the Cleveland brown instead of Seattle I would still say it's the right call.
As a matter of fact it would be even more the right call for a team like Cleveland then a good team . Even if Clevelands odds were only 30% to convert the 2 . The equity of completely shutting down a team like the pats going up by 9 would be worth more to a bad team then a good team.
If a team like Cleveland has a 30% chance of having a 100% chance of beating a team like the pats. The risk reward ratio favors the call to go for 2.
It would say the bigger the underdog you are the more the going for 2 makes sense up 7.
Kinda like poker. If you are the inferior player going against Phil Ivey .
It makes more sense for you to call a coin flip all in preflop then it would be if you were a better player with the ability and skill to wait for a better spot
I've been yelling at my TV for 20+ years for teams to go for two first. They never do.
Then earlier this year I had a team +8.5 in a teaser, think it was the Titans. They were down 15, scored near the end, and went for 2 and missed it, losing by 9. I was OK with it though, just out of principal.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=726815
Great thread.
There was a thread here too:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=726815
The topic still makes my blood boil.
Great thread.
There was a thread here too:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=726815
The topic still makes my blood boil.
I haven't run any numbers, but I would kick it with a superior defense and just go stop them. If you fail, you get a 2nd chance to win the game on defense. I'm as critical as anyone of coaches that can't do arithmetic and have their QB's running around trying to kill time when all they have to do is kneel. By third down, these morons realize oh, yeah, we're good we can kneel. But I'm not sure conventional wisdom doesn't prevail here.
New England going for 2 in the scenario that SEA misses their 2 pt conversion does not really change the math much as NE's chance to convert the 2 is not higher than their chances to win in overtime. Anyone who questioned Carrol's 2 point attempt would have to question Belichick twice as hard if he did elect to go for 2 in that scenario.
If the roles were reversed, I would bet Belichick makes the same call as Carroll. His math is a little different though as he has the superior kicker which affects the PAT % and OT win %.
