Maybe they won't because they're too risk-averse, but it is the right call if you think certain variables are in place.
What is your case that it isn't? By virtue of moving the ball all night, Seattle likely felt confident they could convert the 2pt at a higher % than their D could stop NE at converting it.
If you disagree with that, then show your work.
What is your case that it isn't? By virtue of moving the ball all night, Seattle likely felt confident they could convert the 2pt at a higher % than their D could stop NE at converting it.
If you disagree with that, then show your work.
After sleeping on this for a while it's not as bad of a play as I thought .
But it's still not the optimal play.
You are still much better off going up 8.
It also puts pressure on the other with them knowing that even if they get a TD there is still a 50~% chance they will still not tie
But it's still not the optimal play.
You are still much better off going up 8.
It also puts pressure on the other with them knowing that even if they get a TD there is still a 50~% chance they will still not tie
It all comes down to probabilities. Let's say just for discussion's sake that in Carroll's mind the following %ages were estimates of the pertinent individual events:
NE 60% to make another TD
NE 60% to make a 2 point
NE 60% to win in OT
NE 99% to make the XP
NE 1% to score twice including getting OS kick
SEA 95% to make the XP
SEA 60% to make a 2 point
Using these we can calculate NE's overall expected win probability.
Kicking the XP:
Successful (make the XP) -- NE chance to win = Score TD AND get 2 AND win in OT = .6*.6*.6 = 22%
Unsuccessful (miss the XP) -- NE chance to win = Score TD AND kick XP = .6*.99 = 59%
Overall NE expected win probability = .95*.22 + .05*.594 = 24%
Going for 2:
Successful -- NE chance to win = NE scores twice = 1%
Unsuccessful -- NE chance to win = NE scores once and gets XP and wins in OT = .6*.99*.6 = 36%
Overall NE expected win probability = .6*.01 + .4*.36 = 15%
You can tweak the percentage estimates for each individual event and plug them in to figure out expected win percentage. But the point is that depending on Pete's estimates of the above percentages, it might very well be the right play. At a bare minimum you have to at least acknowledge that it's not horrible.
Risk: dropping from an 80% chance to win to like a 65% chance if you miss
Reward: increasing from an 80% chance to win to like a 99% chance if you convert
If you think you are likely to make the 2 pointer it makes sense to try it in this spot
^ for simplification purposes, this of course does not include redraw type scenarios, where NE scores but leaves enough time on the clock for SEA to score back.
But it illustrates the thought process of going for 2, which might be very sound depending on your assessment of the individual event probabilities.
These guys did not get where they are by being dummies.
But it illustrates the thought process of going for 2, which might be very sound depending on your assessment of the individual event probabilities.
These guys did not get where they are by being dummies.
I made no such assumption. That would be obviously ludicrous to assume such. You must have misread my post.
I was about to make more or less the same post as HarryCaray above, demonstrating that in no way was Carrol's decision so blatantly bad as several have stupidly suggested.
As I said in my first post of this thread, it was a marginal call at worst. It comes down to various probabilities, most important of which are each team's respective chance to convert a 2 pt conversion, NE's chance to score a TD on the ensuing drive, and each team's chance to win in OT. Depending on which values are inputted, will yield a percent chance to win. My guess is that the guys who would have the best estimates are Pete Carroll and his staff on the sideline and in the booth, not any of us from our couch. Somehow I don't think they were writing the equation out on the chalk board though.
Anyone who disagrees, show the math. HarryC already did showing it was not a bad call.
This reminds me of a controversial decision that Belichick made 4 or 5 years ago. It had something to do with going for it on 4th down late in the game in their own territory versus punting it. People just wanted to jump down Belichicks throat and proclaim it was the most idiotic call ever, but when you draw out the probabilities, it was no such thing.
In reply to post #28, my own personal inputs would be around 55% (give or take a few % each way perhaps) for each team to get the 2 pointer. So without doing all the decision tree math out, Seattle would give themselves about a 6% chance better of winning the game with going for 2.
I would make NE less than 60% to drive for a TD, but that really only changes win probability math rather than effecting the decision to go for 2 or not.
I would make NE less than 60% to drive for a TD, but that really only changes win probability math rather than effecting the decision to go for 2 or not.
I loved that call BB made against the colts that night. It was 100% the correct call.
This one much less so but I'm coming around to the belief that what Carroll did last night at least does not completely suck.
Its one of those 52/48 type things.
I recall that being a 10+ page thread here or somewhere else. I think it was 2012 Season. Some people just could not wrap their head around the fact that it wasn't that bad a call. Like this one, it depends on the probabilities and I give the benefit of the doubt to the top notch head coach in making the call, especially on the fly.
Yes it was a 10 page thread at EOG that I started .
Me and 2 or 3 others against about 20'people saying BB was an idiot .
It was the 2009 season actually. It was 4th and 2 on their own 30, if they get it, they kill the clock.
Defense had been shredded last 2 possessions and likely wasn't stopping Indy either way. That was the year the Colts basically went undefeated before losing to the Jets because they didn't care about going 19-0.
Defense had been shredded last 2 possessions and likely wasn't stopping Indy either way. That was the year the Colts basically went undefeated before losing to the Jets because they didn't care about going 19-0.
http://forums.eog.com/showthread.ph...-less-and-less-stupid-the-move-was?highlight=
Here it is. Great thread
Here it is. Great thread
Different numbers
NE 50% to make another TD
NE 52% to make a 2 point
NE 60% to win in OT
NE 99% to make the XP
NE 1% to score twice including getting OS kick
SEA 95% to make the XP
SEA 52% to make a 2 point
Kicking the XP:
Successful (make the XP) -- NE chance to win = Score TD AND get 2 AND win in OT = .5*.52*.6 = .156
Unsuccessful (miss the XP) -- NE chance to win = Score TD AND kick XP AND win in OT = .5*.99*.6 = .297
Overall NE expected win probability = .95*.156+ .05*.297= 16.3%
Going for 2:Successful -- NE chance to win = NE scores twice = 1%
Unsuccessful -- NE chance to win = NE scores once and gets XP and wins in OT = .5*.99*.6 = .297
Overall NE expected win probability = .52*.01 + .48*.297 = 14.8%
Even with adjusted numbers it still comes out as the right call, or at worst a coin flip type call.
You old farts don't get the new school. You still probably want a team to kick the XP after scoring when down 15 with 5 minutes left too, just to "make it a one score game" rather than maximize your chance of winning by knowing upfront whether you need two additional scores or one.
NE 50% to make another TD
NE 52% to make a 2 point
NE 60% to win in OT
NE 99% to make the XP
NE 1% to score twice including getting OS kick
SEA 95% to make the XP
SEA 52% to make a 2 point
Kicking the XP:
Successful (make the XP) -- NE chance to win = Score TD AND get 2 AND win in OT = .5*.52*.6 = .156
Unsuccessful (miss the XP) -- NE chance to win = Score TD AND kick XP AND win in OT = .5*.99*.6 = .297
Overall NE expected win probability = .95*.156+ .05*.297= 16.3%
Going for 2:Successful -- NE chance to win = NE scores twice = 1%
Unsuccessful -- NE chance to win = NE scores once and gets XP and wins in OT = .5*.99*.6 = .297
Overall NE expected win probability = .52*.01 + .48*.297 = 14.8%
Even with adjusted numbers it still comes out as the right call, or at worst a coin flip type call.
You old farts don't get the new school. You still probably want a team to kick the XP after scoring when down 15 with 5 minutes left too, just to "make it a one score game" rather than maximize your chance of winning by knowing upfront whether you need two additional scores or one.
