Line reading 101

[letsgohoosiers]

Last night Col and Mil were considered plays. Comparing the highlighted plays to matchbook Col was .02 difference and Mil was .01 on this chart. I'm just following from what was going on with this when it was originally posted last night. I'm no expert on this, but according to the chart from last night, Mil and the others I listed would be plays. Also LAA was listed earlier as a play and it was .01 difference. Not all books have a better line than matchbook near or at close looking at all the games, so not every game has a play. That's all the input I have for this, maybe I'm right or maybe I'm not getting it at all, but thats what I get out of what he said and I'm just trying to help out.

I'm going to try and make it clear for you, since I sincerely think you're trying to understand it and don't just want winners.

There are 3 rules here, they are not dependent on each other. You might as well call them 3 separate systems.

Rule #3 is to watch the 5dimes line and how it changes from when it opens as a nickel line, to how it opens as a dime line. You want a significant difference (4 point move or greater) for a play. I listed these teams TWICE in this thread.

Here is an example of a play.
06/03 11:04PM: +101 / -106
06/03 11:58PM: +102 / -107
06/03 11:58PM: +105 / -110
06/04 01:59AM: +103 / -108
06/04 05:35AM: +104 / -109
06/04 07:36AM: +105 / -110
06/04 09:32AM: -103 / -107

LAA opened on the nickel line at +101, then when they switched to the dime line at 9:32AM, they moved to -103. They're a play because of the overnight movement (rule #3). There's a 4 point move to LAA.

There were 7 games that fit this movement rule. Those were listed twice. LAA (winner), NYY (winner), MIN (winner), TAM (winner), MIL (loser), COL (winner), PHI (just started).

The other two rules you simply watch how the lines close. Rule #1 highlights to look for arbitrage opportunities, where one Matchbook's line combined with another book's line gives you a positive number.

For example, the Pittsburgh game fit this criteria. BetJamaica had the line close at +123, yet Matchbook's line on NYM was -119. You always take the team on the other side of the arb from Matchbook.

Rule #2 states that when Matchbook isn't closing with a .01 line, you take the team where the line moved towards at the end, as they don't want anymore action on that team indicating it's a winner.

For example, the NYY game fit this criteria. The line moved the following at the end:

06/04 01:03PM: +155 / -155
06/04 01:05PM: +149 / -165
06/04 01:05PM: +149 / -169

That's 6 cents to the Rangers, yet 14 cents to the Yankees. The Yankees line was worse than every single book on the board, meaning you should bet on them.


I highlighted the plays from rule #1 (appear in the non-Matchbook colums) and rule #2 (appear in the Matchbook column) below. Yes, there are games where there are multiple qualifiers. One team may be a play with rule #3, the other team may be the play with rule #1, you then play at your own discretion.

 

[jblonghorn]

So, in essence, as was mentioned earlier, if my book has a better line on the game than matchbook has, go with my book's line. Correct?

 

[tunit213]

Thanks Hooisers, awesome explanation. I was getting the hang of it and this new post makes it crystal now. Two questions for you.

1) Do you play double on a bet when two systems collide? An example is that colorado falls into both system 1 and 3. I see you said to play at your own discretion regarding opposite system plays. Do you have faith in one system over the other or do you just stay away?

2) I see you played Oakland and the Yankees based off of system 3, correct? There was movement on both sides of these. When playing these do you just look at whatever side has the bigger difference. When do you consider it a no play such as what would be the difference between the two sides. For example I see you stayed away from the cubs game. When you first look at it, it looks to fit in system 3 but is the reason why its a no play because both teams had movements of about the same of +/- 5.

Thanks for the help, let me know if I explained myself clearly.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

So, in essence, as was mentioned earlier, if my book has a better line on the game than matchbook has, go with my book's line. Correct?

You got it.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

1) Do you play double on a bet when two systems collide?

2) I see you played Oakland and the Yankees based off of system 3, correct? There was movement on both sides of these. When playing these do you just look at whatever side has the bigger difference.

I play games at my own discretion, I simply use this to assist in my decision making. I want to be the one choosing a play, not a computer/system/line move.

For example, the Tigers were almost a play, however there was absolutely no way that even if there was a play that I would have taken them, because they're my team and I know Willis blows.

When the Matchbook line moves at the closing time, I want it to be so that the line is out of wack for one side (i.e. worse than the other books). If there's movement on both sides, I'm interested in the team who has the greater move. Again, this is something I look at with my own discretion.

 

[tunit213]

Sounds good, I appreciate the explanation. One more thing, I see you played KC I am assuming based off of system 3. To me the line movement was about the same. How did you decide to play that one? Thanks again.

 

[jevers77]

That was a great explanation, thanks. All of my confusion is gone and I understand. Seems to easy though, I can't believe it works like this.

 

[Funnyb25]

Can Someone Explain One More Thing To Me??

then i will have it.... hoosiers said that you need to look for when the line changes from a nickel to dime line....

here is the marlins brewers game for example and the lines at each time period

<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th colspan="2">TIME</th><th style="width: 75px;">AWAY</th><th style="width: 75px;">HOME</th></tr><tr><td>06/03</td><td>10:13 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+134</td><td style="text-align: center;">-144</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/03</td><td>11:23 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+139</td><td style="text-align: center;">-144</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>12:09 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+135</td><td style="text-align: center;">-140</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>01:56 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+140</td><td style="text-align: center;">-145</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>09:12 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+134</td><td style="text-align: center;">-144</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>09:50 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+141</td><td style="text-align: center;">-151</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>09:53 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+139</td><td style="text-align: center;">-149</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>09:54 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+142</td><td style="text-align: center;">-152</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>09:55 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+140</td><td style="text-align: center;">-150</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>11:06 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+141</td><td style="text-align: center;">-151</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>11:31 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+144</td><td style="text-align: center;">-154</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>11:37 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+145</td><td style="text-align: center;">-155</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>11:47 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+147</td><td style="text-align: center;">-157</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>02:12 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+148</td><td style="text-align: center;">-158</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>05:12 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+145</td><td style="text-align: center;">-155</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>05:46 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+148</td><td style="text-align: center;">-158</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>06:03 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+151</td><td style="text-align: center;">-161</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>06:03 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+150</td><td style="text-align: center;">-160</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>06:05 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+149</td><td style="text-align: center;">-159</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>06:36 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+150</td><td style="text-align: center;">-160</td></tr></tbody></table>
Now, where do i see a change from nickel to dime??? looks like everything is a penny line... do i have it wrong??? Penny line is like -148, -149?? Nickel would be -145 to -150?? dime would be -150 to -160??? or do i have it wrong?? if that could be explained i got it!

Thanks

 

[jevers77]

06/04 01:56 AM +140 -145
06/04 09:12 AM +134 -144

For some reason there's a big gap in the time range but there's your nickel to dime. The money is on Mil since it went from +140 to +134 and Fla barely moved.

 

[Funnyb25]

06/04 01:56 AM +140 -145
06/04 09:12 AM +134 -144

For some reason there's a big gap in the time range but there's your nickel to dime. The money is on Mil since it went from +140 to +134 and Fla barely moved.

aahhhhh thanks a lot.. got it... ya i noticed.. that was part ofit that was confusing was the big gap... but thank you

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I see you played KC I am assuming based off of system 3. To me the line movement was about the same. How did you decide to play that one?

I didn't play KC, I played Tampa as the overnight line movement was for Tampa. There were two conflicting rules to that game and I used my own judgment.

Again, this wasn't a thread I created to track picks, give out picks, just showing how line movement can tell you things.

 

[SpreadOffense]

then i will have it.... hoosiers said that you need to look for when the line changes from a nickel to dime line....

here is the marlins brewers game for example and the lines at each time period

<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th colspan="2">TIME</th><th style="width: 75px;">AWAY</th><th style="width: 75px;">HOME</th></tr><tr><td>06/03</td><td>10:13 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+134</td><td style="text-align: center;">-144</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/03</td><td>11:23 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+139</td><td style="text-align: center;">-144</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>12:09 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+135</td><td style="text-align: center;">-140</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>01:56 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+140</td><td style="text-align: center;">-145</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>09:12 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+134</td><td style="text-align: center;">-144</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>09:50 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+141</td><td style="text-align: center;">-151</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>09:53 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+139</td><td style="text-align: center;">-149</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>09:54 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+142</td><td style="text-align: center;">-152</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>09:55 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+140</td><td style="text-align: center;">-150</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>11:06 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+141</td><td style="text-align: center;">-151</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>11:31 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+144</td><td style="text-align: center;">-154</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>11:37 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+145</td><td style="text-align: center;">-155</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>11:47 AM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+147</td><td style="text-align: center;">-157</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>02:12 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+148</td><td style="text-align: center;">-158</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>05:12 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+145</td><td style="text-align: center;">-155</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>05:46 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+148</td><td style="text-align: center;">-158</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>06:03 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+151</td><td style="text-align: center;">-161</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>06:03 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+150</td><td style="text-align: center;">-160</td></tr><tr><td>06/04</td><td>06:05 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+149</td><td style="text-align: center;">-159</td></tr><tr class="alternate"><td>06/04</td><td>06:36 PM</td><td style="text-align: center;">+150</td><td style="text-align: center;">-160</td></tr></tbody></table>
Now, where do i see a change from nickel to dime??? looks like everything is a penny line... do i have it wrong??? Penny line is like -148, -149?? Nickel would be -145 to -150?? dime would be -150 to -160??? or do i have it wrong?? if that could be explained i got it!

Thanks

The overnight lines are nickel lines (a difference in 5 - the value of a nickel lol - between the favorite and underdog) Example: Team A +145 Team B -150. A dime line is what you'll see before game time (in small to medium line games), where there is a difference in 10 (again, value of a dime) between the favorite and dog. Example: Team A -140 Team B +130. Some books don't even offer dime lines (example -110/-110 - a difference of 20). Try to avoid using these when possible, as you can usually get a better line elsewhere. Hope that clears some things up.

Don't take this the wrong way, you may need to do some studying before doing any type of serious gambling.

 

[Funnyb25]

The overnight lines are nickel lines (a difference in 5 - the value of a nickel lol - between the favorite and underdog) Example: Team A +145 Team B -150. A dime line is what you'll see before game time (in small to medium line games), where there is a difference in 10 (again, value of a dime) between the favorite and dog. Example: Team A -140 Team B +130. Some books don't even offer dime lines (example -110/-110 - a difference of 20). Try to avoid using these when possible, as you can usually get a better line elsewhere. Hope that clears some things up.

Don't take this the wrong way, you may need to do some studying before doing any type of serious gambling.

na.. i got it now, thanks tho... if you look at the history of some of the matchups, sometimes they never switch over.... i can give you examples if you want...

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Don't take this the wrong way, you may need to do some studying before doing any type of serious gambling.

I got in trouble for saying that to him earlier.

 

[Funnyb25]

haha u guys are funny... it was a simple question.... as some matchups dont have nickel or dime lines...

 

[Funnyb25]

I got in trouble for saying that to him earlier.

and by the way... u never said that to me... lol

 

[tunit213]

Thanks. I thought you used rule 2 for that game becausec of the highlighted yellow box in the matchbook column, makes sense now. One last question, how long have you been tracking this, seems to hit at a good rate? Thanks. Also did you play the phillies tonight?

 

[tunit213]

Hey fellas can I ask where you guys got the line history from? Thanks.

 

[Funnyb25]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds/20090604.aspx

 

[tunit213]

Thanks funny.