Oklahoma State has a good offensive team, but the defense is still unproven. Georgia will have a good offensive line this year and a QB that may not be outstanding, but will not force a lot of mistakes either. I look for Georgia to control the clock in this game and keep Oklahoma State's offense off the field as much as possible. I also think Georgia can make some stops on OSU. SEC proved last year that can stop these Big 12 offenses in the Championship game.
I don't mind the Georgia play, but it feels like we are getting screwed a bit on the value you would expect to get considering the public perception of these teams. I mean Stoolwater is probably a 4 pt home field advantage by itself, especially against a rookie QB. Maybe it's not adjusted enough, but this line definitely feels adjusted towards a sharp sentiment for Georgia.
I think it'll move closer to 6 prior to kick. Let the media keep talking about OSU and their unstoppable offense....
Again, I could be totally wrong about OSU, and if I am, I'll be the 1st to admit it, but when it comes to wagering, I can't pass up a chance to get a strong, well coached SEC team AND points.
Games that are on my radar right now:
NCST. -3.5 ...A big turnaround in line value from last season's line. But NCST wasn't the same team in the second half of the season as they were the first. So these two things kind of offset each other. But i would still prefer see a line of -3 or less.
Troy -3...Troy is probably the only Sunbelt team that I would trust to win in this spot. But I don't like the fact that they've never been put in this position as the road favorite against a non conference opponent. But Troy is still clearly the better team imo.
Minnesota -6..I hope this number holds up. I think anything under 7 is a pretty darned good number here.
Notre Dame -17...This game is on my radar. But the line is still a little rich. I'm hoping a few people out there fall in love with Nevada in this spot.
Baylor +4.5...This is a no-brainer for me. I'm going to get this number plus bet a little on the ML.
UAB +2...This looks like a 2008 season leftover line where Rice is still thought of as the 10 win team. And UAB will just be UAB. But I think one of these teams is going to regress quite a bit, and the other is going to surprise some people. I'm hoping this line is bet up to +3 or more.
OU -21...The OU defensive line vs the rebuilt BYU offensive line is a huge mismatch here. So I don't think the Sooners are going to have to score a whole lot of points to cover. But I would prefer not to see anything over 21.
Texas A&M -12...This line is sure to be bet up. But I still like A&M at -14 or less.
Nebraska -20...Smellyburger is a paycheck whore when it comes to scheduling these BCS teams. And FAU very seldom covers these spreads.
Stanford -17...I know this looks like a lot of points. But WSU may be just as bad as last season. And Stanford will be better. WSU never got within 31 points to any opponent on their home field last season. And the best game that they played against a conference opponent besides their win over 0-12 Washington was 25 points to 4-8 UCLA. Stanford gave WSU 30 points last year and won 58-0.
Cal -17...This is exactly what I was afraid of with this game. I knew it would open at 2 TD's or more. So the bargain is now taken out of it. And I'll really have to think on this one before pulling the trigger.
Arizona -14...The number is right where I thought it would be. And although the possibiltiy is there that CMU could give them a good game, I think the more likely scenerio is Zona will feed off of their first bowl game & win in 10 years and it will carry over to this season. Plus no lookahead spot for Zona.
Colorado -13...I can't believe this line is as low as it is. I thought it would be somewhere around -16. I think CSU could regress some from last season. And their 6-6 regular season record last season was kind of done with smoke and mirrors and a fair share of close wins and very little defense. Colorado scored 38 on them last season. And the Buffs will be better on offense this year. This game could get ugly. Plus, I would be a little pissed if the teams I beat by 21 points ended up going to a bowl game and CU didn't. The Buffs could have ass wuppin' on their minds.
NCST. -3.5 ...A big turnaround in line value from last season's line. But NCST wasn't the same team in the second half of the season as they were the first. So these two things kind of offset each other. But i would still prefer see a line of -3 or less.
Troy -3...Troy is probably the only Sunbelt team that I would trust to win in this spot. But I don't like the fact that they've never been put in this position as the road favorite against a non conference opponent. But Troy is still clearly the better team imo.
Minnesota -6..I hope this number holds up. I think anything under 7 is a pretty darned good number here.
Notre Dame -17...This game is on my radar. But the line is still a little rich. I'm hoping a few people out there fall in love with Nevada in this spot.
Baylor +4.5...This is a no-brainer for me. I'm going to get this number plus bet a little on the ML.
UAB +2...This looks like a 2008 season leftover line where Rice is still thought of as the 10 win team. And UAB will just be UAB. But I think one of these teams is going to regress quite a bit, and the other is going to surprise some people. I'm hoping this line is bet up to +3 or more.
OU -21...The OU defensive line vs the rebuilt BYU offensive line is a huge mismatch here. So I don't think the Sooners are going to have to score a whole lot of points to cover. But I would prefer not to see anything over 21.
Texas A&M -12...This line is sure to be bet up. But I still like A&M at -14 or less.
Nebraska -20...Smellyburger is a paycheck whore when it comes to scheduling these BCS teams. And FAU very seldom covers these spreads.
Stanford -17...I know this looks like a lot of points. But WSU may be just as bad as last season. And Stanford will be better. WSU never got within 31 points to any opponent on their home field last season. And the best game that they played against a conference opponent besides their win over 0-12 Washington was 25 points to 4-8 UCLA. Stanford gave WSU 30 points last year and won 58-0.
Cal -17...This is exactly what I was afraid of with this game. I knew it would open at 2 TD's or more. So the bargain is now taken out of it. And I'll really have to think on this one before pulling the trigger.
Arizona -14...The number is right where I thought it would be. And although the possibiltiy is there that CMU could give them a good game, I think the more likely scenerio is Zona will feed off of their first bowl game & win in 10 years and it will carry over to this season. Plus no lookahead spot for Zona.
Colorado -13...I can't believe this line is as low as it is. I thought it would be somewhere around -16. I think CSU could regress some from last season. And their 6-6 regular season record last season was kind of done with smoke and mirrors and a fair share of close wins and very little defense. Colorado scored 38 on them last season. And the Buffs will be better on offense this year. This game could get ugly. Plus, I would be a little pissed if the teams I beat by 21 points ended up going to a bowl game and CU didn't. The Buffs could have ass wuppin' on their minds.
OU -21...The OU defensive line vs the rebuilt BYU offensive line is a huge mismatch here. So I don't think the Sooners are going to have to score a whole lot of points to cover. But I would prefer not to see anything over 21.
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I like OU here also, but this seems like a line that is more likely to come down a notch than go up, no? OU's O-line issues have gotten a good deal of press, and BYU is well respected. This seems like a dog that could get both square and a little sharp money to me.
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I like OU here also, but this seems like a line that is more likely to come down a notch than go up, no? OU's O-line issues have gotten a good deal of press, and BYU is well respected. This seems like a dog that could get both square and a little sharp money to me.
I was expecting something in the 24 range. So this line is a bit better than I thought. It's a line that I'm not totally comfortable with. But I don't see it being bet down. I think if anything it gets bet up. I think people might look at this as more of an OU home game than a neutral site game. And if they were playing BYU at home they would probably end up giving something like 27.
i'm surprised like many of you that minny is giving a low 6 even on the road. i'm hoping all offensive pieces are in place as they are going to be explosive in the passing game. they also have good talent in lb corp and want to know if maresh or triplett start at wlb instead of cooper. they both have great linebacking size(cooper registers at a whopping 206 lbs). they also have nice size between the tackles and have a very good veteran secondary. we all know syracuse's problems and this 6 just doesn't add up.
And if they were playing BYU at home they would probably end up giving something like 27.
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Really? That seems high to me as what would be expected. Oklahoma layed -16.5 at home vs 3 loss Mizzou last year. They layed -27 at putrid AnM late in the season. I definitely don't think flopping home fields would get you the same difference between last year's AnM and this year's expectation of BYU (Phil Steele calling for MWC championship). Maybe initially even more will be expected by the public from OU, since Bradford returns? I'm with you on the Sooners side, but I'm not sure this one is going up from 21. "Square Sharps" love to try and find dogs to bet on these early release lines, and I think this could be one of them. Should be interesting.
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Really? That seems high to me as what would be expected. Oklahoma layed -16.5 at home vs 3 loss Mizzou last year. They layed -27 at putrid AnM late in the season. I definitely don't think flopping home fields would get you the same difference between last year's AnM and this year's expectation of BYU (Phil Steele calling for MWC championship). Maybe initially even more will be expected by the public from OU, since Bradford returns? I'm with you on the Sooners side, but I'm not sure this one is going up from 21. "Square Sharps" love to try and find dogs to bet on these early release lines, and I think this could be one of them. Should be interesting.
