Let's Talk TN +8 vs GA -8

[BeetleMania]

Tennessee thrashes Georgia!

 

[bones1980]

Tennessee will score on GA . It will be a shootout just like Tenn/ Bama game . That GA D will look lost . Ga offense better show up . Tenn D isn’t as bad as you think . Bennett will be lucky to finish the game

 

[Avocado33]

Bennett will be lucky to finish the game

…..why?

 

[Juggler]

You can probably deep dive into teams stats and get a better feel. Just do team ppg vs team opp ppg. Find the median and add em up. Then go back and eliminate the crap games like Hawaii vs Michigan etc and throw those padded stats out. And whatever OSU games you consider who cares games. Then do the same for the stats. Add em all up divide it and see what differences pop off.

I’m not a stats guy football. But if you do it for say Ten vs Uga this week it probably spits out close to the line. I’m sure they have algorithms that factor in smaller equations etc. Pace, Play per game, Rush vs Pass yards. Teaser protection numbers etc.


Ten vs UGA

48x12 60/2 30 points
43x21 64/2 32 points

UGA -2 add 2-3 HF
UGA -4 UGA -5
Total 63

Eliminating BS games each team (3) Ten (2) UGA
41x12 53/2 27 points
44x21 65/2 33 points

UGA -6 add 2-3 HF
UGA -8.5 Uga -9.5
Total 61

Combined Median
30x27 57/2 29 points
32x33 65/2 33 points

UGA -4 add 2-3 HF
UGA -6.5
Total 63

End of the day you never know how the ball bounces. So it’s just numbers and probably etc. Not my cup of tea for football

Excellent couple of responses, chrishansen. You seem like an old school guy. It makes me laugh when people think that so-called wiseguys always win every bet they make. Your comments about how a line is made was spot on. Everything is done by computers, in this day and age. Beating the book is much harder to do now, because the lines are so sharp. Especially in major sports (Baseball, Football & Basketball). You have to pick your spots, & only wager when you're sure possess a major edge. I think the ebb & flow of the Ga-Tenn game will be fan friendly, as do you. So, the short end would be the only way I could wager on this game for shits & giggles. Good luck with your Tenn play.

 

[REDEYE]

Excellent couple of responses, chrishansen. You seem like an old school guy. It makes me laugh when people think that so-called wiseguys always win every bet they make. Your comments about how a line is made was spot on. Everything is done by computers, in this day and age. Beating the book is much harder to do now, because the lines are so sharp. Especially in major sports (Baseball, Football & Basketball). You have to pick your spots, & only wager when you're sure possess a major edge. I think the ebb & flow of the Ga-Tenn game will be fan friendly, as do you. So, the short end would be the only way I could wager on this game for shits & giggles. Good luck with your Tenn play.

probably the most articulate poster we have here is Christansen.... Wish I could explain things as well as he does...lol

 

[REDEYE]

I don't pay much attention to what the sharps and the public are doing...I have a pretty good idea of what side I like and where I want to get in at. If the line moves, and I get a better line, more often than not, I will just add to my wager, not really caring why the line moved, outside of injuries or maybe weather.

 

[Willie99]

Vols for me, their offense is legit and they will score a bunch

 

[Avocado33]

I’ll toss out 8.5 62 off top my head if guessing. I’ll give couple points OSU at home. Probably project OSU at 34 and Michigan 27. Injuries weather etc obviously can swing stuff

Yeah that sounds similar to what I was thinking

I was thinking Ohio State -9 . Less certainty about total but probably close to 60

Michigan earned some respect last year, and they aren't gonna be a pushover for next couple of years.

 

[vinnyvegas]

VOLS have that Oregon Ducks type Offensive juggernaut feel. Which never had success vs SEC. However, this O is even better it seems.

Georgia cannot play or win in a shootout just like BAMA game. Is Dawgs D better than Bamas, probably. Plus at home. So that’ll help.

As maybe said or implied, Dawgs have to run, run, run like Forrest Gump. Eat clock, shorten possessions and hope it’s a dogfight 20-19 type

If total of game gets into 60 range, VOLS cover. And maybe even win.

iF you take VOLS take some ML too

 

[Hotpizza]

I'd say Ohio State -9.5 over Michigan and a total around 60-61 if the weather is good.

 

[Avocado33]

I'd say Ohio State -9.5 over Michigan and a total around 60-61 if the weather is good.

Sensible

 

[MLB]

One thing for sure.....with the exception of death and taxes......2 SEC teams will end up in the top 4!

 

[pathologist]

Uga in a rout 41-17

 

[Enfuego]

Two things...

1) Good defense always beats good offense. For 100 years, that's always been the case in football.

2) 90% of your boys in the public are on Tennessee. Road dog with 90% of the public backing them? No fucking way.

You couldn't get me to put anything on Tennessee in this spot.

 

[Serbone]

DAWGs will romp by 16-20.

 

[Greenbacks]

Home field is huge in college football

 

[Avocado33]

Seems like a classic sharps vs public situation

 

[G-Man!]

I didnt see one post here that was aware of Georgia being favored by 15.5 a week before this week.
It was posted in the PICKS forum and I made the play then at Tennessee +15.5.
Tenvolfan was first to see it and play it last week. His play is also posted there.

After Tennessee won big again last week over KY - it immediately dropped 7 points!

 

[REDEYE]

This is just a plain bad line imo.
GA-2 1/2 is my line.

 

[Avocado33]

I didnt see one post here that was aware of Georgia being favored by 15.5 a week before this week.
It was posted in the PICKS forum and I made the play then at Tennessee +15.5.
Tenvolfan was first to see it and play it last week. His play is also posted there.

After Tennessee won big again last week over KY - it immediately dropped 7 points!

Man that's a great job of taking advantage of an early line. Regardless of outcome