Lay Theory

[AFLGuru]

Not so hot in the 10:00 games, as I had two teams blow 1-0 leads at home to lose on me... not what I expect... but at least I didn't bet against Norwich (down 2-0 and winning 3-2).

Cardiff 1 - Coventry 0 L (-1.30 units)
Colchester 1 - Barnsley 2 L (-2.40 units)
Schalke 1 - Eintracht 1 W (+1.78 units)
Kilmarnock 0 - Dundee 0 W (+1 unit)
Kalmar 1 - AIK 3 L (-2.17 units)
Sheff Wed 1 - Burnley 1 W (+1 unit)

 

[AFLGuru]

Toulouse with the late dagger in Lyon's heart after they struck in the 83rd. GOOD feeling to get one of those 90th minuters on my side, especially for such a big time upset... Makes today monster at 10-3 and picking up over 8 units.

Nice 1 - Nantes 1 W (+1 unit)
Monaco 1 - St. Etienne 2 W (+1.11 units)
Sochaux 1 - Auxerre 1 W (+1 unit)
Lyon 1 - Toulouse 1 W (+3.12 units)

Record: 22-13 (-3.66 units)
Invested: $7160
Net: +$366.00
ROI: +5.11%

 

[AFLGuru]

Hope to continue the nice little run on Sunday...

Horsens (+0.5) vs. Esbjerg (-147)
Viborg (+0.5) vs. Silkeborg (-398)
Jaro (+0.5) vs. Honka (-116)
KuPS (+0.5) vs. HJK (+142)
TPS Turku (+0.5) vs. Tampere (-166)
Hannover (+0.5) vs. Werder Bremen (+104)
Odd Greenland (+0.5) @ Sandefjord (-155)
Valrenga (+0.5) vs. Brann (-213)
Molde (+0.5) vs. Rosenborg (-107)
Gelfe (+0.5) vs. Gotheborg (-122)
Malmo (+0.5) vs. Elfsborg (-249)
Helsingborg (+0.5) vs. Djurgarden (-239)

Lot of potential tomorrow with favs hitting the road. Hopefully things work out and HFA proves vital yet again.

 

[AFLGuru]

Now that I've seen what I need to see on the injury front...

Lille (+0.5) vs. Lens (-390)

I'd also love to lay the wood against Rennes today, but the near -700 isn't worthy enough. Marseilles with Ribery playing should at least muster a goal, and Rennes probably isn't scoring at all, but once at most.

 

[AFLGuru]

Always a great feeling when you've got a dog you're laying -400 come back from down 2-0 on the road to win in the last 20 minutes... Thanks Viborg. I'll remember that one.... More than makes up for yesterday's debacle at Lyon that went my direction. Had the feeling I should've gone against Rangers today, but didn't have the nuts to do it. Live and learn. Hopefully we make those 3 units back today, but things can be real trying today with so many high powered favorites on the road.

 

[AFLGuru]

Just waiting on the Rosenborg game for today to see if I can come close to breaking even. Either way, we made some progress after the Viborg debacle, but didn't quite make it above even today.

Horsens 1 - Esjberg 1 W (+1 unit)
Viborg 2 - Silkeborg 3 L (-3.98 units)
Jaro 2 - Honka 5 L (-1.16 units)
KuPS 0 -HJK 2 L (-1 unit)
TPS 0 - Tampere 1 L (-1.66 units)
Hannover 2 - Werder Bremen 4 L (-1 unit)
Sandefjord 1 - Odd Grenlend 3 W (+1 unit)
Valerenga 2 - Brann1 W (+1 unit)
Gelfe 1 - Gotheborg 0 W (+1 unit)
Malmo 1 - Elfsborg 1 W (+1 unit)
Helsingborg 1 - Djurgarden 1 W (+1 unit)
Lille 4 - Lens 0 W (+1 unit)

Record: 29-18 (+1.86 units)
Invested: $9550
Net: +$186
ROI: +1.95%

 

[AFLGuru]

Just one for this afternoon...

Sparta (+0.5) vs. Vitesse (-170)

 

[AFLGuru]

Tying up loose ends...

Molde 0 -Rosenborg 2 L (-1.07 units)
Sparta 1 - Vitesse 2 L (-1.70 units)

Record: 29-20 (-0.91 units)
Invested: $9830
Net: -$91
ROI: -0.92%

 

[AFLGuru]

Saturday...

Vejle (+0.5) vs. FC Kobenhavn (+250)
NAC (+0.5) @ AZ (+270)
Barnsley (+0.5) vs. Southampton (-155)
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Wolverhampton (-270)
Derby (+0.5) vs. Norwich (-228)
Colchester (+0.5) @ West Brom (+196)
Sheffield United (+0.5) vs. Liverpool (+169)
Wigan (+0.5) @ Newcastle (+107)
Portsmouth (+0.5) vs. Blackburn (-225)
Bolton (+0.5) vs. Tottenham (-181)
KooTeePee (+0.5) vs. MyPa (-136)
Eintracht Frankfurt (+0.5) vs. Wolfsburg (-309)
Motherwell (+0.5) @ Hibernian (+120)

Lots of dogs for tomorrow... hopefully the big guns only end up with 1 point instead of 3 in a bunch of cases tomorrow morning...

 

[AFLGuru]

Basically broke even thus far, with the big victory being the fade of Liverpool and the big loss being the fade of Wolverhampton. Two more for today from France...

PSG (+0.5) vs. Lille (-250)
St. Etienne (+0.5) vs. Nancy (-392)

The Nancy fade is awfully ballsy at this price and probably doesn't have great value long term, but this team shouldn't continue winning in this league. Draws are much more likely on the road, especially in this league.

 

[AFLGuru]

Now THIS takes talent...

The good news for NAC is that they scored. The bad news? They lost by a touchdown.....

 

[AFLGuru]

Not so bad today. KooTeePee blowing it in the 90th minute and the fact that I didn't pull the trigger on a couple I knew I should have (Arsenal and Aberdeen) didn't help the day any.... Got myself raped in two of these games... but live and learn.

Velje 0 - Kobenhavn 4 L (-1 unit)
AZ 8 - NAC 1 L (-1 unit)
Barnsley 2 - Southampton 2 W (+1 unit)
Burnley 0 - Wolverhampton 1 L (-2.70 units)
Derby 0 - Norwich 0 W (+1 unit)
West Brom 2 - Colchester 1 L (-1 unit)
Sheffield United 1 - Liverpool 1 W (+1.69 units)
Newcastle 2 - Wigan 1 L (-1 unit)
Portsmouth 3 - Blackburn 0 W (+1 unit)
Bolton 2 - Tottenham 0 W (+1 unit)
KooTeePee 0 - MyPa 1 L (-1.36 units)
Eintracht 0 - Wolfsburg 0 W (+1 unit)
Hibernian 3 - Motherwell 1 L (-1 unit)
PSG 1 - Lille 0 W (+1 unit)
St. Etienne 1 - Nancy 0 W (+1 unit)

Record: 37-27 (-1.27 units)
Invested: $12572
Net: -$127
ROI: -1.01%