Lay Theory

[Hooligans]

I agree!! :toast:

to keep from this confusion in future picks please just list something like...

Sedan +1/2 goal (169/100) - mansion - laying a bet against Marseille win

 

[AFLGuru]

For Tuesday... full slate of games... in Championship.

Cardiff (+0.5) vs. West Brom (-176)
Colchester (+0.5) vs. Plymouth (-239)
Barnsley (+0.5) @ Hull City (+100)
Burnley (+0.5) @ Leicester City (-113)
Luton (+0.5) @ Sheffield Wednesday (-159)
Wolverhampton (+0.5) vs. Ipswich (-347)

 

[AFLGuru]

And one from Sweden...

Elfsborg (+0.5) vs. Malmo (-254)

 

[quantumleap]

Guru:

I have been somewhat successful playing steam in the soccer leagues in the last couple weeks, especially in the Eastern European matches. I'll keep an eye on these along with you.

Thanks for taking the time and effort to post.

 

[Hooligans]

Quantum:

good to see you back! havent seen ya in a while mate! cheers! :toast:

Guru:

I have been somewhat successful playing steam in the soccer leagues in the last couple weeks, especially in the Eastern European matches. I'll keep an eye on these along with you.

Thanks for taking the time and effort to post.

 

[AFLGuru]

MUCH better day today. Only one dump and the rest were quite successful, including Barnsley, coming back from down 2-0 to win on the road... something I wouldn't count on too often... Not too many draws today either in Championship, which statistically means more are on the horizon. I'm looking forward to this in the future.

Good to see you around QL. Please feel free to continue chiming in.

Cardiff City 1 - West Brom 1 W (+1 unit)
Colchester 0 - Plymouth 1 L (-2.39 units)
Hull City 2 - Barnsley 3 W (+1 unit)
Leicester 0 - Burnley 1 W (+1 unit)
Sheffield Wednesday 0 - Luton 1 W (+1 unit)
Wolverhampton 1 - Ipswich 0 W (+1 unit)
Elfsborg 4 - Malmo 2 W (+1 unit)

Record: 12-5 (-2.13 units)
Invested: $3391
Net: +213.00
ROI: +6.28%

Now, I'm not getting ridiculously high on today, as I'm usually going to be dealing with situations that SHOULD statistically win quite a bit. I'll have my downers for certain, and when they're down, they're probably going to be WAY down. But for now, I celebrate:toast:

 

[quantumleap]

Quantum:

good to see you back! havent seen ya in a while mate! cheers! :toast:

Thanks Hooligans. I went on holiday to a family reunion for 4 days and had a good time. I didn't even hardly think about betting. Now that I'm back I'm suffering withdrawals.

 

[Hooligans]

Its always good to spend time with all the family!! cheers mate! keep in touch! :toast:

Thanks Hooligans. I went on holiday to a family reunion for 4 days and had a good time. I didn't even hardly think about betting. Now that I'm back I'm suffering withdrawals.

 

[koi]

You know a heck of a lot more about this than I do.

I'm not so sure.

 

[AFLGuru]

Trust me, I know absolutely nothing about soccer except the statistics available. Sure, I can tell you the guys that are really good on the really good teams, but I can't tell you ANYTHING about most of the guys in these smaller leagues.

 

[AFLGuru]

Wednesday's Wagers...

... There's something that seems a bit awkward in that GAIS/Hacken match... a team that's winless at home but 2-2-2 on the road... either their road luck has run out (which is what I'm hoping for) or they're really a better team than the numbers suggest. GAIS is 2-2-2 at home as well, so this is really a 2/3s match and probably should be avoided, but I am going to bet it on recent form anyway, as GAIS just beat Hacken 2-0 away and now return home. Hard to imagine Hacken getting the full 3 points back. Draw is very possible.

GAIS (+0.5) vs. Hacken (-219)

Coventry City (+0.5) @ Southampton (-113)
Sunderland (+0.5) vs. Birmingham (-209)... Birmingham possibly the strongest of the day on account that they are playing without several people up front... Any time I see a road game paired with a match report that says "striker crisis," I'm not even looking at the odds. You've gotta score to beat me, and I think Birmingham's chances of failing to score are a lot better today than they usually are.

 

[MarkieMark+]

Someone tipped me off to this one, and I'm going to give it a shot for a bit in the English Championship (sides tend to be a bit more level in the lower divisions than say, the Premiership, but HFA is still a large factor).

Basically all I'm doing is using Pinnacle movers and match information to pick a LAY. I know it's high vig and a real grind, especially if things aren't going well, but this may actually turn profitable if done properly. I'm not "handicapping" per se, more or less capping against and using percentages. I DO have some help finding info on the games. I'm trying to not lose games because of lack of knowledge. Unfortunately, I'm stuck just using the Mansion Exchange at this point.

Following criteria must be met...

When fading home teams, never lay more than -200. Even the worst of teams can manage 8-9 wins at home. When fading road teams, never lay more than -400.

Road teams win around 28% of the time on average, but in the beginning of the season, these numbers appear to be skewed towards the home team even more.

Always assume to win 1 unit. Remember, this is all a big numbers game for me. You'll see me bet against the big favs quite a bit, though it didn't really come up this weekend.

I like this theory, Guru.

I already took SUNDERLAND (+0.25) and COVENTRY (+0.5) at Pinny this morning.

Good Luck!

 

[AFLGuru]

Today, not so hot. Didn't get crushed, only a shade over a 2 units... but we're still kicking.

 

[AFLGuru]

Nothing for today. Just want to recap yesterday.

GAIS 2 - Hacken 2 W (+1 unit)
Southampton 2 - Coventry 0 L (-1.13 units)
Sunderland 0 - Biringham 1 L (-2.09 units)

Had a slight glitch on my record that has been fixed... These numbers are accurate.

Record: 13-7 (-0.08 units)
Invested: $4185
Net: -$8
ROI: -0.19%

Obviously nothing that even a decent day can't turn back around in our favor. Back to work tomorrow.

 

[AFLGuru]

For tomorrow...

Wolverhampton (+0.5) vs. Preston (-341)
Borussia Dortmund (+0.5) @ Bayern Munich (+153)

I've conceded the fact that Dortmund probably isn't taking points away from this match, but Munich probably isn't going to get 14 wins at home like they did last season. Dortmund have only lost 5 games on the road in each of the past 2 seasons, and getting a number like this is too hard to pass up.

 

[AFLGuru]

Not even close to successful today, as both fades win by 2 goals, though Preston's last goal was totally elementary. Not a good day today, but a big day in store tomorrow with a ton of games on the schedule.

 

[AFLGuru]

For Saturday... obviously biggest day of the week...

Stoke (+0.5) vs. Birmingham (-145)
Coventry (+0.5) @ Cardiff (-130)
Colchester (+0.5) vs. Barnsley (-240)
Eintracht (+0.5) @ Schalke (+178)
Kilmarnock (+0.5) vs. Dundee United (-403)
Toulouse (+0.5) @ Lyon (+312)
Nice (+0.5) vs. Nantes (-351)
Sochaux (+0.5) vs. Auxerre (-249)
Midtjylland (+0.5) vs. Aalborg (-203)
Fredrickstad (+0.5) @ Lillestrom (+200)
Kalmar (+0.5) vs. AIK (-217)

7-4 would be real nice, though I know I'm hoping on one of the three dead dogs to stick around for awhile and that probably at least 1 of the -200s or so is gonna go down... We'll see how it plays out.

 

[AFLGuru]

Stoke with a nice boring effort to start the day

0-0 in every soccer game that I'm betting on is excellent as far as I'm concerned.

 

[AFLGuru]

Late add...

Sheff Wed (+0.5) vs. Burnley (-193)

 

[AFLGuru]

St. Etienne (+0.5) @ Monaco (+111)... Monaco's 11 road wins each of the two seasons prior to this one is scary, but the fact that St. Etienne produced more results than losses the past couple seasons paired with Monaco's 8 wins at home last year makes this a must bet... but I'm not exactly pumped about my chances in this one.