Lay Theory

[AFLGuru]

Someone tipped me off to this one, and I'm going to give it a shot for a bit in the English Championship (sides tend to be a bit more level in the lower divisions than say, the Premiership, but HFA is still a large factor).

Basically all I'm doing is using Pinnacle movers and match information to pick a LAY. I know it's high vig and a real grind, especially if things aren't going well, but this may actually turn profitable if done properly. I'm not "handicapping" per se, more or less capping against and using percentages. I DO have some help finding info on the games. I'm trying to not lose games because of lack of knowledge. Unfortunately, I'm stuck just using the Mansion Exchange at this point.

Following criteria must be met...

When fading home teams, never lay more than -200. Even the worst of teams can manage 8-9 wins at home. When fading road teams, never lay more than -400.

Road teams win around 28% of the time on average, but in the beginning of the season, these numbers appear to be skewed towards the home team even more.

Always assume to win 1 unit. Remember, this is all a big numbers game for me. You'll see me bet against the big favs quite a bit, though it didn't really come up this weekend.

 

[AFLGuru]

Chart...

Oh, this is the chart I'm using to show my suggested advantage... Note that I won't necessarily be able to use all the figures quite accurately, particularly on the recently promoted or relegated teams early in the season.... but I'm going to guesstimate the promoted and relegated sides based off of the history of their fellow promoted/relegated teams and their estimated finish in the table based off of some basic reading I've done.

ROI... % profit
WP... Required winning % to break even
SIT... Situational %s drawn out
ADV... Estimated advantage in worst case scenario
EV... Guesstimated advantage

 

[AFLGuru]

Cardiff (-207) @ Barnsley... Barnsley has been stingy at home in the 1st division, producing a result in 59 of 69 (85.5%) matches in the past 3 years. It'll be tougher in Championship, but even producing results in 16 of the 23 matches at home will be enough for this to be profitable. I'll assume worst case scenario is 15 results for Barnsley, but plan on 16. Cardiff has 9 new starters not on last year's team, one that produced just 6 wins in 23 (26.1%) chances and no more than 7 in 23 the last 3 seasons. Things aren't looking any better for Cardiff this year, so I'll assume the same 7 road victories but plan on 6... $207/$100, 48.3% ROI, 67.4% WP, 0% ADV, +4.33% EV

Wolverhampton (-236) @ Plymouth... This is more of a percentage move. Lots of money coming in on Plymouth at pk, from -130 up to -150 at OLY. Pinny line move suggests that I have an advantage without doing any research. Plymouth produced 17 (73.9%) results at home each of the past two seasons. Wolverhampton has managed 13 (28.2%) wins since their return from the Premiership. Wolverhampton seems to be battling injuries, while Plymouth has a relatively full side. I can only assume that not much is going to change this coming season. Plymouth will probably win this match, but draw should be the worst case... $236/$100, 42.4% ROI, 70.2% WP, +2.62% ADV, +2.62% EV (Plus Pinnacle lean)

 

[AFLGuru]

QPR (-417) @ Burnley... Alright, I know... that took a real long time to break my first rule... There's simply too much action on Burnley to pass up at this point. Odds have gone from +320 to almost 5-1 on the Rangers to win this match, and I simply must join in. This is one of those played more on gut and movement than anything else, as the stats say I'm right more often than not, but not enough to really be betting this. QPR is a lousy road team, having won just 6 of 23 (26.1%) on the road on average since joining Championship. Burnley are a decent home team at 17 of 23 results each of the past two seasons (73.9%). QPR is faced with injuries up the wazoos and I just can't see this team stealing a victory on the road at this point... $417/$100, 24% ROI, 80.7% WP, -6.8% ADV, -6.8 EV (but a heck of a lot of reason to believe that I'm right)

If I get bitten by this one, I get what I deserve. The other two I'm convinced I'd beat the curve on. We'll see how it works out.

 

[AFLGuru]

France should provide decent opportunities in this as well due to the low scoring efforts, but I'd like to stay away from the big leagues as much as possible due to the fact that the information is a ton easier to find. The logic can be used slightly differently in France because of these stats (Lyon is thrown out of the equation, as their numbers would totally skew everything)

No home team produced more than 13 wins at home, including Lyon (68.4%), but no home team produced more than 6 losses outside the relegation zone (31.5%)

Save Lyon, no road team produced more than 7 victories (36.8%), but no road team produced more than 11 losses outside the relegation zone (57.9%)

Should be lots of decent opportunities, especially against home teams in this league. Getting around +100 or better in certain situations to lay the home team can be a real profitable margin.

 

[AFLGuru]

St. Etienne (-105) vs. Sochaux... St.Etienne produced 6 home victories last season (31.6%) versus 9 the year before (47.4%). Immediately, we can stop and know that these odds are decent. Closer look at Sochaux... Only 9 results away last year (47.4%), but 11 each of the 3 previous years (57.9%). I've got no reason to believe that St. Etienne are going to do any better than 9 at home, and I'd expect at absolute worst the same number of away results for Sochaux. Meanwhile, injuries seem to be plauging St. Etienne and I've had a slight line move in my favor with Sochaux... $105/$100, 95.2% ROI, 51.2% WP, -1.2% ADV, +1.4% EV (Plus slight Pinny lean)

 

[AFLGuru]

Bordeaux (+119) vs. Toulouse... Just looking at the standings, Bordeaux should definitely win this match. But a closer look suggests that perhaps more often than not (or at least 50/50), Bordeaux will fail to take all 3 points. Toulouse managed just 8 results last year on the road (42.1%), which is the number that scares me. Bordeaux also fits the same numbers, having only lost 8 matches. So EV appears off on this wager, and truthfully is. But Bordeaux's form wasn't always so spectacular at home (only 5 wins two seasons ago), and now they have a big bulls-eye on their chest. To duplicate 11 home wins would be a triumph for Bordeaux, when even 1 less victory will prove to be enough to make this bet worthwhile. Also of note, there are two weird lines at Mansion, one laying -160 on Bordeaux, and another at -129. This paired with line movement from -108 to -117 on the Asian line at Pinnacle is enough to convince me that someone smarter than me is taking the visitors... $100/$119, 119% ROI, 45.7% WP, -3.6 ADV, +1.67 EV (Plus goofy line)

 

[AFLGuru]

Early results...

Barnsley 1 - Cardiff 2 L (-2.07 units)
Burnley 2 - QPR 0 W (+1 unit)
Plymouth 1 - Wolverhampton 1 W (+1 unit)

Record: 2-1 (-0.07 units)
Invested: $860
Net: -$7.00
ROI: -0.08%

Keep in mind this is a pure experiment and I'm not counting on anything spectacular. Just some return is fine by me.

 

[AFLGuru]

Not much to report. All of that amounted to absolutely nothing. Interesting 10-1 upset with promoted Lorient beating PSG 3-2 away after being behind 1-0 and 2-1.

Bordeaux 2 - Toulouse 0 L (-1 unit)
St. Etienne 1 - Sochaux 2 W (+1 unit)

Record: 3-2 (-0.07 units)
Invested: $1065
Net: -$7.00
ROI: -0.657%

 

[AFLGuru]

Love a couple of these situations tomorrow... Starting in Denmark...

Nordsjaelland (-328) @ Esjberg... $328/$100, 30.5% ROI, 76.6% WP, +0.24% ADV, +0.64% EV

Aalborg (-113) @ Silkeborg... $113/$100, 88.5% ROI, 53.1% WP, +5.7% ADV, +5.7% ADV (Plus slight line movement)

 

[AFLGuru]

In Norway...

Molde (-297) @ Lyn... $297/$100, 33.7% ROI, 74.8% WP, +2.12% ADV, +2.12 EV (Plus line move, plus recent form)

 

[Hooligans]

hey mate try CFR Cluj -270 in romanian football.... Dinamo is a good pick if your willing to lay the chalk -500... cheers mate!:toast:

 

[Hooligans]

mate were i bet i have nordsjaelland +275!!! :toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

mate were i bet i have nordsjaelland +275!!! :toast:

You know a heck of a lot more about this than I do. Doesn't mean either one of us is right, but I'm not planning on winning this bet anymore... Remember that these are LAYS not BETS. The odds on Nordsjaelland that I post are their odds to NOT win. Hopefully this has got draw written all over it now. Nordsjaelland have already used up their allotment of road victories this season, and if they keep in touch with the average, they'll fall back to earth... and since this team is nothing special from what it appears in this league, I'm hoping it starts against a comparable, if not superior side today.

 

[AFLGuru]

For what it's worth, Nordjaelland is up to +336 at Mansion...

But I'm going to add one more strictly based off of line movement, and a BUNCH of it overnight.

FF Jaro (-285) @ KooTeePee... No real EV numbers on this game, like I said, it's based off of line movement. And if recent form is any indicator, KooTeePee is going the right direction, having gotten 3 straight results, but Jaro have yet to pick up a road victory this year. Number on KooTeePee moved 24 cents overnight at Pinnacle.

 

[AFLGuru]

Marseille (-169) @ Sedan... I'm weary of the promoted side, but if I know that this Riberry thing is getting in the way, it must be getting in the way. Marseille won't win the required 9 games away from home to beat me on this number this year.

 

[Hooligans]

hey mate! i played aalborg and then won nicely 2 nil! good pick and thanx for the heads up on that game! did you take my picks for the romanian league? there were all winners!! my wife is romanian and she a big football fan so she knows here football pretty good! cheers mate! :toast:

Love a couple of these situations tomorrow... Starting in Denmark...

Nordsjaelland (-328) @ Esjberg... $328/$100, 30.5% ROI, 76.6% WP, +0.24% ADV, +0.64% EV

Aalborg (-113) @ Silkeborg... $113/$100, 88.5% ROI, 53.1% WP, +5.7% ADV, +5.7% ADV (Plus slight line movement)

 

[AFLGuru]

Hooligans--

These are FADES, not plays. So I didn't win on that one... not a tremendous day, but I still expect decent things from this. I don't count on teams winning from behind 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2, but that's alright.

 

[AFLGuru]

Results for 8/6

Silkeborg 0 - Aalborg 2 L (-1.13 units)
Esberg 3 - Nordjaerlland 5 L (-3.28 units)
Lyn 2 - Molde 0 W (+1 unit)
KooTeePee 2 - Jaro 1 W (+1 unit)
Sedan 0 - Marseille 0 W (+1 unit)

Record: 6-4 (-1.48 units)
Invested: $2257
Net: -$148.00
ROI: -6.56%

 

[rolltide]

to keep from this confusion in future picks please just list something like...

Sedan +1/2 goal (169/100) - mansion - laying a bet against Marseille win