Lance's Lock's 2010 PGA Tour Thread

Lance'sLocks · Feb 3, 2010

jblonghorn said:
Who are your early leans to play well at Riviera? I'm thinking Furyk may get off to a good start. It seems he's due after no wins in over 2 years. I don't see Phil winning this tourney 3 straight years. BOL.

thinking of betting some head to heads this week rather than playing too many individual players. This week doesn't necessarily favor the long hitters, but will favor the FIR and putters. Furyk will be one to watch, but in my opinion not bet on this week. Yes, his winless streak dates back to 07, and I highly doubt he comes out en fuego this week.
I think Paddy is a good head to head matchup against Els as Els struggled to stay in the fairway off the tee last week.
Snedeker is off to a great start and had a tremendous final round on Sunday, I am looking to play him heads up this week as well.
Stricker and Mickelson should be the top favorites this week, as Phil looks for the 3peat @ Riviera.
I will be interested to see what Phil does with the allegations of cheating thrown at him earlier this week. If Phil gets his Driver straightened out he should have no problem running the table here, Stricker is in the same boat and has always played well early.
Once my book posts their odds I will make another post this afternoon.

Lance'sLocks · Feb 3, 2010

Golf - Odds to win The Northern Trust Open

5001 Phil Mickelson +600
5002 Steve Stricker +1000
5003 Robert Allenby +1200
5004 Jim Furyk +1600
5005 Padraig Harrington +2000
5006 Ernie Els +2000
5007 Rory Sabbatini +2500
5008 Mike Weir +2500
5009 Tim Clark +2500
5010 Adam Scott +2500
5011 Anthony Kim +3000
5012 Nick Watney +3000
5013 KJ Choi +3500
5014 Hunter Mahan +3500
5015 Charles Howell III +3500
5016 Matt Kuchar +3500
5017 Brandt Snedeker +3500
5018 Ryan Moore +4000
5019 John Rollins +4000
5020 Angel Cabrera +4000
5021 Michael Sim +4000
5022 Dustin Johnson +4500
5023 Marc Leishman +4500
5024 Rickie Fowler +4500
5025 Ben Crane +4500
5026 Field (Any Other Player) Even

Phil's the defending champ here with some stiff competition. Like I said in my last post, this tourney will favor the straight hitters and true putters. Riding the 2 favorites along with Paddy and a red hot Snedeker. Matchups to be posted later

jblonghorn · Feb 3, 2010

Great points. I played the two faves as well as Furyk and Fowler. Fowler being quite a flyer, but him being from Cali I know he'd really really like to win this tourney. Never know.

I also played Westwood and Clarke (great value on him) to win Dubai.

Fairways and Greens.

jblonghorn · Feb 3, 2010

BTW, I don't know about you but I think it's a shame that the typical tournament (Phoenix) isn't being played on Super Bowl weekend. Watching #16 as we're readying for the SB was always a lot of fun. Oh well.

Lance'sLocks · Feb 4, 2010

nice start by Dustin Johnson.
I put a late bet on Tim Clark fwiw.

jblonghorn · Feb 7, 2010

Well, Lee Westwood chokes again. This time fairly large. I'm beginning to think he's a choker. Through this part of his career, it's extremely fair to label him a choker.

I'm praying Stricker holds on.

Lance'sLocks · Feb 8, 2010

Stricker did hold on, going to watch the final round this evening.
Liking Phil's shot @ Pebble this week, will see what the odds have in store. Other early leans are on Marino and Gay.

viking611 · Feb 8, 2010

guess i should've posted my stricker future. i grabbed him at 14-1 on wednesday...thought i was stealing!

Lance'sLocks · Feb 8, 2010

wow. Stricker@ 14-1.I would have made a sizable bet there. Then would have sweated the whole round Sunday.

Lance'sLocks · Feb 10, 2010

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I think getting Johnson at this price is great. Only playing a few guys this week, hammering Weir vs Harrington @ -105 all week. Really like Weir in this spot as this won't be a big hitter's tourney. The enigma is the new course for sure. However, I will roll with Weir, DJ and Sabbatini just b/c if he's winning they'll show his wife!

viking611 · Feb 13, 2010

well shit...i need to start posting my plays. Last week bet on 5 players with stricker being my highest bet.

This week, i took one player. Dustin Johnson at 22-1. Let's hope i got 2 in a row!

Lance'sLocks · Feb 13, 2010

viking611 said:
well shit...i need to start posting my plays. Last week bet on 5 players with stricker being my highest bet.

This week, i took one player. Dustin Johnson at 22-1. Let's hope i got 2 in a row!

DJ playing the toughest course for the tournament today currently -8.
Would love to see him smoke Goydos tomorrow on Pebble.
Weir not doing too well for me, but DJ winning will pay off nicely.

Uscsilb24 · Feb 13, 2010

you fellas pretty confident in johnson tomorrow probably holding a one stroke lead over goydos?

this has definitely appeared to be johnson's tournament to lose

Lance'sLocks · Feb 13, 2010

Uscsilb24 said:
you fellas pretty confident in johnson tomorrow probably holding a one stroke lead over goydos?

this has definitely appeared to be johnson's tournament to lose

the only advantage Goydos has is the fact that he played Pebble today.
Johnson missed several birdie ops yesterday, and should be a full 3-4 strokes better.
I will take him heads up against Goydos tomorrow for sure, especially since the opening odds didn't even mention Goydos.

Lance'sLocks · Feb 14, 2010

nothing like sweating out a final round like today, I was half shitfaced by the time Goydos posted the 9 on 14.
Dustin played well and the sandie birdie on the 18th was $$$$.
18-1 paid off nicely, took a small hit backing Weir vs Harrington and Clark, but still came out way ahead thanks to DJ!

Uscsilb24 · Feb 14, 2010

lance great job on the johnson pick this week. had him as well and was sweating on 17 and 18. thanks for bringing the winners to therx and keep up the great work.

viking611 · Feb 15, 2010

2-2 on golf on the year.....maybe i'll quit.

22-1 paid off nice....i was asleep before they got to 12. 2 weeks in a row i had no doubt either!

Lance'sLocks · Feb 15, 2010

viking611 said:
2-2 on golf on the year.....maybe i'll quit.

22-1 paid off nice....i was asleep before they got to 12. 2 weeks in a row i had no doubt either!

Glad you had no doubt, I wasn't that confident at all, especially when the announcers started pimping out Duval.
I was really worried that JB Holmes would have either made birdie or God forbid eagle on 18, DJ might have cracked. Luckily for us, he didn't!

Lance'sLocks · Feb 15, 2010

will begin handicapping the matchups for the Accenture tomorrow, since they start Wednesday, will also have some plays for the other event going on this weekend.

One thing that is already looking interesting is the possible matchup between Westwood and Watney in the 2nd round.

Lance'sLocks · Feb 16, 2010

Spent all day on the road today, which was beneficial because I spent most of the day listening to PGATour Radio on Sirius/XM. Lots of talk regarding the Accenture that starts tomorrow and runs through Sunday.
Most of the talk was centered around the beast of a division that is the Gary Player bracket and the lesser division that is the Hogan Bracket.
Much like March Madness, I printed out the bracket and made my predictions.
No real upsets I see other than I don't see Furk making it past the 2nd round. I was concerned with Rory McIroy's health coming into this event, but it seems that he will be fine for this week.
My "Elite 8" are as follows:

Ross Fisher (beating Stricker)
Ian Polter (beating Paddy)
Martin Kaymer (beating Glover)
Rory McIroy (beating Luke Donald)
Lee Westwood (beating Ryan Moore)
Henrik Stenson (beating Geoff Ogilvy)
Stewart Cink (beating Schwartzel)
Paul Casey (beating Zach Johnson)

I will most likely not bet the first day's matches as I really don't see any value in the lines, plus I want to wait and see what my local posts for this weeks Tournament @ Mayakova.

If I do bet I'd bet the following matches:

Adam Scott +120 over Angel Cabrera
Ryan Moore +115 over Ernie Els
Charl Schwartzel -105 over Hunter Mahan

BOL