I guess there is the weird scenario that maybe Texas wins very ugly or something and they don't leapfrog Ohio State (if Ohio State is in fact still above them)I think their only path is:
-Oklahoma State win
-Georgia win
-Michigan win
-Louisville win
They should get the 4 seed in that scenario. The Pac-12 game is meaningless IMO -- winner of that game is in, loser is out
They likely will be #6 in the CFP rankings just ahead of Texas, but I would expect Texas to jump them if they take care of business against Oklahoma State
I think that is extremely unlikely though