Kojak's Big Wildcard Weekend (past 2 weeks 14-1-1!)

[Kojak]

Having my best run of the season going 8-1-1 in Week 16 and 6-0 in Week 17! So far I have only 3 plays for this weekend and may add later.

Seattle -4.... Being a Diehard Rams fan, it hurts me to admit it but after taking the emotion out of it, Rams will get lit up here. Rams are 0-5 su and ats since winning last road game in Seattle with the average margin of defeat at roughly 3 touchdowns. Rams will be trying to win third game of the year vs Seattle and though I saw someone post that teams who the first two games went on to win 3rd game at something like 10 out of 15, I don't think this Rams team can get the job done. Alexander though distracted will have a field day vs soft underbelly of the Rams defense. Since Rams struggle to force turnovers, they will struggle to keep this one close due to their own inability to stay turnover free with the worst number in the league in creating turnovers and turnover margin. Home field will be huge here also as Hawks have not hosted a home playoff game in years. All this spells dooms to my skitzo Rams.

Seattle 31 Rams 14

Denver +10....This is not the same Broncos team as last years version. Though Colts rested starters for majority of the game, Denver didn't give away their game plan for this Sunday either. They featured the pass Sunday but that won't be the case this Sunday. They will feature the run to keep Payton and company as their own defense off the field. When Payton is on the field, they should have best dl Price back as well as two newcomers in Bailey and Lynch to try to slow down this offensive juggernaut. Shanahan always learns from his lessons and though that may not spell victory in this one, it will be a lot closer than the experts think.
Indianapolis 30 Denver 24

San Diego -6.... Jets beat Chargers in Week 2 before Brees and Co got on their roll. Jets have backed into the playoffs only winning 1 of last 4 or 5. Chargers even with nothing to play for looked impressive vs Chiefs. Chargers have been under the radar all year and will get their payback here vs overrated Jets team. L.T. will run wild, Brees will be efficient , and defense will suffocate Martin and Pennington. Chargers will roll into New England for the big showdown next week.
Chargers 27 Jets 10

Best of luck and may have a few more plays later on.

 

[Grogan]

Kojak, congrats on your recent run--outstanding work. My initial thought was the Rams in that one, but your write-up has led me to look again.

Just an fyi, if San Diego wins, they'll go on to play Pittsburgh next week, not the Pats.

 

[WEEKENDALKI]

Thanks Kojak!!!

 

[Kojak]

Weekendalki and Grogan,

Thanks for kind comments and I hope it keeps up. Best of luck.

 

[Roxygurl]

im with you on the hawks and my bolts kojak! its my belief the 2nd round game would be at new england.hmmm...jake plummer being ..well..jake plummer doesnt worry you in a big game like this one at indy??the bronc-noids are lucky to be in the playoffs.but im a die hard charger girl and i hate denver.your most likely right but ill not bet that game. youve been rolling my man keep it up!:banger: ~RG

 

[Kojak]

roxygirl,

good luck on the Hawks and bolts and you are right about SD going to Pitt not NE as I feel Indy wins but doesn't cover. Best of luck.

 

[100KbyXMAS]

It depends on who wins the Indy/Denver game. The lowest seed remaining plays at PItt.

 

[Kojak]

Adding.....


Minnesota +7 (bought 1/2 pt)....Green Bay has not been a good home team this season going 4-4 su and 2-6 ats. Looking even closer they are 2-1 su against division foes at home but 0-3 ats. Moss and Burleson have given Packers nothing but fits as they have no answer for them. Both defenses are very soft and difference could come down to turnovers. I know that like Mike Martz, Tice is the biggest boob of coaches going but feel they got a new lease on life when they backed into playoffs. Both games were decided by identical 34-31 scores in GB favor but could have gone either way. It is difficult to defeat a team 3x in a season and if GB does here, it won't be a blowout. I feel Vikings are live here but fall just short by that identical score.
Green Bay 34 Minnesota 31.

 

[Roxygurl]

i love this minny pick most of all kojak! im smelling $$$$ hun.~RG

 

[ShedClub]

Congrats on your streak! I love your analyses. I really like the Chargers in this one. The Jets don't seem like they can beat big teams and at big times, and they proved it by losing to St. Lou. in their last game of the season. I will be hammering this game. Hope it works out for all of us. GL

Shed

 

[Kojak]

roxygirl,

I was waiting for Minny line to grow to 7 but didn't want to risk it so bought the 1/2 pt while I could. I think I have a great shot at sweeping the board. If I had to rate my plays, it would go something like this.
1. San Diego
2. Minnesota
3. Seattle
4. Denver
Best of luck!

shedclub,
Glad you like the analysis and thanks for the congrats. One stat that clearly stood out is the fact that SD went something like 14-2 ats this year and 10-0 ats in last 10 which tells me the linesmakers can't seem to get a hold on this team. Jets Pennington has been taking a lot of heat in NY for playing poorly in big games (NE,Pitt,STL, Buffalo, etc) since injury. This game seems to me to be the biggest mismatch. Best of luck!

 

[Kojak]

Adding 1 total for Saturday....

Rams/Seahawks under 51.5.... Rams have scored over 17 points only 2 times on the road this season and that was back in October at Seattle. They average less than 20 points a game as a team home or away. This will be a defensive game imo with more field goals than touchdowns.
Seahawks 31 Rams 14 (Total =45 points)

 

[CubsFan70]

Thanks Kojak!!!:drink:

 

[johnskelington]

I like 3 out of 4........you're a good looking dude!

 

[Roxygurl]

kojak as hot as you are im going with you on all your plays. greed kills but christmas was a big drain on my bank account and roxy needs a new pair of shoes.lol. among other things. gl!~RG

 

[johnskelington]

I once had a cat named Roxy..........my ex named her..........i just called her meow.

 

[Kojak]

roxygirl,

I am honored that you will be playing all of my selections. I hope I don't disappoint so you can get your new shoes. Best of luck.

johnskelington,
I am glad you find me to be a good looking dude. Best of luck on our plays.

 

[Deb12]

Minnesota +7 (bought 1/2 pt)....Green Bay has not been a good home team this season going 4-4 su and 2-6 ats. Looking even closer they are 2-1 su against division foes at home but 0-3 ats. Moss and Burleson have given Packers nothing but fits as they have no answer for them. Both defenses are very soft and difference could come down to turnovers. I know that like Mike Martz, Tice is the biggest boob of coaches going but feel they got a new lease on life when they backed into playoffs. Both games were decided by identical 34-31 scores in GB favor but could have gone either way. It is difficult to defeat a team 3x in a season and if GB does here, it won't be a blowout. I feel Vikings are live here but fall just short by that identical score.
Green Bay 34 Minnesota 31.

Hey Kojak...

Nice write ups on your part!!

However, I gotta disagree with your minny selection...Green Bay has literally owned the vikes as of late in winning 4 of the last 5 meetings overall and Green Bay has also won 4 of the last 5 meetings that took place at Lambeau Field.

I think you are probably making your selection based on the point spread record between these two teams with regard to GB being 4-1 straight up versus the vikes in the last five meetings but 2-3 ATS and of course while GB has gone 4-1 straight up versus the vikes at Lambeau the vikes covered 4 of the 5 ATS.

However, the vikes enter this contest having no momentum whatsoever having lost two straight including last weeks 21-18 loss at Washington as 4.5 road favorites which should have knocked them out of the playoff picture, overall the vikes have now lost 4 of their last 5 contests and posted a 0-5 ATS mark in those games.

The Packers on the other hand enter this contest will LOTS of momentum having won 9 of their last 11 contests and went 6-4-1 ATS in those games including two wins over these vikes by identical 34-31 scores.

I keep hearing this same phrase "Its too hard for a team to defeat another team three times in a season"....not so, actually the last 15 times that two teams met for a third time in a single season the team that won the first two get togethers won 10 of those 15 third season meetings and thus completed the seasonal sweep.

A check of the injury report shows that the vikes will be without DB Cory Chavous and that DB Terrance Shaw is listed as questionable which of course means that Packer QB Brett Farve should have a field day against a viking team that does not play well outdoors and on grass as evidenced by the vikes piss poor record of 2-20 straight up when playing outdoors and on grass.

With regard to game preparation and playoff experience a HUGE edge must be given to HC Mike Sherman and his Packers who have been to the playoffs the past three straight seasons over viking HC Mike Tice who is coaching his very first playoff game and has a viking team that is in the playoffs for the first time in four years.....I placed my wager this morning on Green Bay -6.


take care and have a Happy New Year!!

Deb

 

[jmania]

nice write up Kojak, now i feel more confident in my chargers play

thanks ^^;

 

[NickyDeuces]

I realize St.Louis struggles on the road but the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (4-3 SU) last seven home games, including 29 point loss to Buffalo, a 4 point loss to (2-6 road) Dallas, a 7 point win over (1-7 road) Miami, and a 3 point win over (1-7 road) Arizona.

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