Finally back home from the Virgin Islands (it was fantastic) thinking about starting a unit count now that i have a little bit of a track record on here, thanks for the continued support. Just gonna start with a "unit plays: 0-0" below the season record. I will still update everything as usual! Every unit is gonna be $50 instead of $100 for this season. Hope you all are doing well.
1-1 tonight
Season Record: 103-95-2
Unit Plays: 0-0
tomorrow:
Ark st +6.5
may have some more for tomorrow!!! GL
1-1 tonight
Season Record: 103-95-2
Unit Plays: 0-0
tomorrow:
Ark st +6.5
may have some more for tomorrow!!! GL
Whoops sorry forgot to add the units in:
Ark St +6.5- risk 1 unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45)
Also adding -
Sienna/Monmouth Under 154 - risk 1 Unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45): at first glance i thought this was going to be an over play, simply based on Monmouths last 4 scoring totals: (110,86,86,81). The big factor that came in to this under play is the prediction of a pretty nice win for monmouth (15 or more). In their last game where the spread was around 8, the total was 147 and MM won by 15. I see this game being very similar, and im hoping sienna can slow them down in the first half to make the score somewhere around 78-63. Sienna has also been shooting poorly recently, and i dont see that changing much on the road tonight. Even when Monmouth made 12 threes against fairfield the total was 160. I took the Iona/MM game out of the equation because that was an exception to a rule, and both teams played out of their mind. Looking for MM to win by double digits and sienna to struggle from the field in this one.
Detroit/Wright St Under 146.5 - risk 1 unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45)- These two teams are far from similar when it comes to PPG, and PPG Allowed - detroit is explosive, high scoring and struggles to stop opponents, where wright st is methodical, low scoring, and thrives off of defense. In their last 5 meetings, the average total is rough 126-127 which means that it has historically been a defensive battle (advantage to wright st if anyone was looking into the side on this game). I think that it will be a close game, and wright st will win by a small margin of 6-7, and the score will be something like 69-64. I like trends and historical data alot, and thats what made me decide to play the under tonight.
Ark little rock/ Ark St over 133 - risk 1 unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45) - after reviewing the offense & defense of both teams this play was easy to decide for me, i cant guarentee anything but i think that a home dog always score a little bit more when the spread is 8 or below. Ive said in earlier posts that +6.5 is my sweet spot for beeting home underdogs, and ive done fairly well with that. Usually playing at home means that the team will be more motivated, and have the will to win. ARKLR is a defensive based team allowing only 55 PPG, while ARKST is an offensive team, avg 77 PPG. I see this game being close, and very competitive until the last whistle blows - and it should be a little higher scoring for both teams because they want to compete. I see this game being something like 71-68 Ark St in a tight one all the way through.
Goodluck to everyone - feel free to provide any insight or feedback on any other games!
-ville
Ark St +6.5- risk 1 unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45)
Also adding -
Sienna/Monmouth Under 154 - risk 1 Unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45): at first glance i thought this was going to be an over play, simply based on Monmouths last 4 scoring totals: (110,86,86,81). The big factor that came in to this under play is the prediction of a pretty nice win for monmouth (15 or more). In their last game where the spread was around 8, the total was 147 and MM won by 15. I see this game being very similar, and im hoping sienna can slow them down in the first half to make the score somewhere around 78-63. Sienna has also been shooting poorly recently, and i dont see that changing much on the road tonight. Even when Monmouth made 12 threes against fairfield the total was 160. I took the Iona/MM game out of the equation because that was an exception to a rule, and both teams played out of their mind. Looking for MM to win by double digits and sienna to struggle from the field in this one.
Detroit/Wright St Under 146.5 - risk 1 unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45)- These two teams are far from similar when it comes to PPG, and PPG Allowed - detroit is explosive, high scoring and struggles to stop opponents, where wright st is methodical, low scoring, and thrives off of defense. In their last 5 meetings, the average total is rough 126-127 which means that it has historically been a defensive battle (advantage to wright st if anyone was looking into the side on this game). I think that it will be a close game, and wright st will win by a small margin of 6-7, and the score will be something like 69-64. I like trends and historical data alot, and thats what made me decide to play the under tonight.
Ark little rock/ Ark St over 133 - risk 1 unit ($50) to win 0.89 units ($45) - after reviewing the offense & defense of both teams this play was easy to decide for me, i cant guarentee anything but i think that a home dog always score a little bit more when the spread is 8 or below. Ive said in earlier posts that +6.5 is my sweet spot for beeting home underdogs, and ive done fairly well with that. Usually playing at home means that the team will be more motivated, and have the will to win. ARKLR is a defensive based team allowing only 55 PPG, while ARKST is an offensive team, avg 77 PPG. I see this game being close, and very competitive until the last whistle blows - and it should be a little higher scoring for both teams because they want to compete. I see this game being something like 71-68 Ark St in a tight one all the way through.
Goodluck to everyone - feel free to provide any insight or feedback on any other games!
-ville
2-4 tonight, it was a rough one...unfortunately gonna have those type of nights. Went heavy on the totals tonight, gonna change it up a little tomorrow and bet a few more sides. So far I've got three games that I will be placing wagers on (see below for unit amount):
Season Record: 110-102-3
Unit Plays: 7-7-1: -0.70 ($35)
TX Arlington -14: 2 units - really like the home team here tonight. They are facing a team that has played 4 straight games on their home court so this will the first road game in 2 weeks. They did win 3/4 but by very small margins, which leads me to believe this a perfect opportunity for UTA to take their emotions about last games loss on their opponent. Additionally this is their first home game since Jan 7th. I like them to come back home and beat ark St by 18-19 points.
NC Greensboro +5.5: 1 unit - I have been doing fairly well with the "home dog +6.5" theory and that is what this game opened at. Gonna stick with it.
VMI +6.5: 1 unit - although this game didn't open right where I would prefer I still like the chances of the home dog covering. This is a spread based play, no big reason why I chose it.
I will ill have a few totals later on im sure. Will post when I can. Thanks to everyone who posts and good luck with your plays.
-ville
Season Record: 110-102-3
Unit Plays: 7-7-1: -0.70 ($35)
TX Arlington -14: 2 units - really like the home team here tonight. They are facing a team that has played 4 straight games on their home court so this will the first road game in 2 weeks. They did win 3/4 but by very small margins, which leads me to believe this a perfect opportunity for UTA to take their emotions about last games loss on their opponent. Additionally this is their first home game since Jan 7th. I like them to come back home and beat ark St by 18-19 points.
NC Greensboro +5.5: 1 unit - I have been doing fairly well with the "home dog +6.5" theory and that is what this game opened at. Gonna stick with it.
VMI +6.5: 1 unit - although this game didn't open right where I would prefer I still like the chances of the home dog covering. This is a spread based play, no big reason why I chose it.
I will ill have a few totals later on im sure. Will post when I can. Thanks to everyone who posts and good luck with your plays.
-ville
adding (1 unit each):
East Tenn State -2.5 (tailing pennywise - his line was at 2 but i still like it)
Elon/W&M under 154: This play was based around the last 2 head to head matchups between these two teams. The total has gone under in those games and never exceeded 148. I think that W&M will win this game at home and hopefully that will come from solid defensive play to slow to scoring down.
Chattanooga/NC Greensboro under 141.5: I really like NCG to knock off Chat tonight at home, and the only way that will happen is if they slow them down and play methodical basketball. In their last matchup it was a close one, and the total was under 138. I envision the same style of play tonight.
VMI/Samford under 137.5: another game i see being close and low scoring -both teams have faced wofford this year and lost by close to the same amount, additionally the total in both of those games didnt exceed 134. This leads me to believe that this game will closer to 130 than 140 and be in the low 60's at the final buzzer.
East Tenn State -2.5 (tailing pennywise - his line was at 2 but i still like it)
Elon/W&M under 154: This play was based around the last 2 head to head matchups between these two teams. The total has gone under in those games and never exceeded 148. I think that W&M will win this game at home and hopefully that will come from solid defensive play to slow to scoring down.
Chattanooga/NC Greensboro under 141.5: I really like NCG to knock off Chat tonight at home, and the only way that will happen is if they slow them down and play methodical basketball. In their last matchup it was a close one, and the total was under 138. I envision the same style of play tonight.
VMI/Samford under 137.5: another game i see being close and low scoring -both teams have faced wofford this year and lost by close to the same amount, additionally the total in both of those games didnt exceed 134. This leads me to believe that this game will closer to 130 than 140 and be in the low 60's at the final buzzer.
Tonight: 3-4 - had a couple of really close loses. Been on a cold streak but the good days are always just around the corner.
Season Record: 113-106-3
Unit Plays: 10-11-1 (-1.10/$-55)
The UTA win (2 units) slowed down the negative a little bit, looking forward to saturday. Im going to take tomorrow off and enjoy the weekend! Goodluck and see you in a couple days.
Season Record: 113-106-3
Unit Plays: 10-11-1 (-1.10/$-55)
The UTA win (2 units) slowed down the negative a little bit, looking forward to saturday. Im going to take tomorrow off and enjoy the weekend! Goodluck and see you in a couple days.
